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Old 03-21-2012, 07:39 AM   #401
Breeze
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Oh, I owe you guys odds on fouls and injury...will be posted shortly...
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Old 03-21-2012, 07:44 AM   #402
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EVENT 9 - JAVELIN - Result Specifics

Chances of Occurance

Conservative
Fouls - 0%
Injuries - 0%

Normal
Fouls - 29.17%
Injuries - 1.38%

Aggressive
Fouls - 41.67%
Injuries - 2.78%
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Old 03-21-2012, 08:05 AM   #403
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Nielsen for the Average.
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Old 03-21-2012, 08:14 AM   #404
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Event Overview

With 2 events to go, I've taken some time this morning to look at the leaderboard and the remaining events to get an idea of where things stand, and it is pretty interesting. We are very tightly bunched with only 75 points separating 1st and 2nd. In the previous Decathlon after 8 events the leader was up by almost 300 points over second...this time around the 10th player is just barely over 300 points back. So a lot can still happen...

In fact the 1500 is a really crucial swing event. To illustrate this point...last time the athlete in 7th had a great final event and jumped all the way to 2nd...making up 200 points in 1 event...

As it currently stands Babson will be hard to catch, especially if he does well in the Javelin, but it isn't going to be impossible. He struggled in the 400 - so there is no question he'll struggle in the 1500. Only problem is that many of the people around him on the leaderboard are also poor in the 1500...including, Nielsen and McCloud (but even being poor they aren't nearly as bad as Babson). Ginsberg is a great 1500 meter runner, but a terrible javelin thrower. Combine these up and down performers in the last two events with the other 3 at the top of the leaderboard, Llyw, Justice, and Rambis, who are all good at both the Javelin and the 1500 and the outcomes here are going to be very interesting - I wouldn't be surprised for the top 5 or 6 spots to all be within 150 points of each other...

At the bottom of the leaderboard, it will take a small miracle for Ashkayev to not finish last. The injury will happer his efforts in the Javelin and really impact his result in the 1500. Bafou's chances at challenging for the podium are also most likely gone for the same reason. The remaining 3, Gonzalez, Gunderson, and McGillicuddy alternate between poor in 1 event and pretty good in the other...so I expect some jockying between them coming down the stretch, but I don't see any challenge to jump over any other competitor except maybe Bafou...

Last edited by Breeze : 03-21-2012 at 08:16 AM.
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:19 AM   #405
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Last edited by PilotMan : 03-21-2012 at 09:19 AM.
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:30 AM   #406
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Ummm...Llyw is feeling a little left out on the card breakdowns. The Welsh are so often overlooked...
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:59 AM   #407
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chesapeake View Post
Ummm...Llyw is feeling a little left out on the card breakdowns. The Welsh are so often overlooked...

***Sigh***

Ugh...I guess when I was typing up the breakdowns, I overtyped Llyw's rather than the cut and paste it, 'cause I did do it.

Hang on, I'll insert your breakdown

Last edited by Breeze : 03-21-2012 at 10:01 AM.
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:01 AM   #408
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Wales is a place? I thought it was just code for "Not as Awesome As Danes."

Of course, that should be the meaning of every word that isn't in Danish.
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:06 AM   #409
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Rambis, Jr. is going to start out with an All Out throw.
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:09 AM   #410
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Originally Posted by Breeze View Post
***Sigh***

Ugh...I guess when I was typing up the breakdowns, I overtyped Llyw's rather than the cut and paste it, 'cause I did do it.

Hang on, I'll insert your breakdown



It's been inserted now...
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:31 AM   #411
chesapeake
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Llyw - Average
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Old 03-21-2012, 10:40 AM   #412
mrkilla22
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Frank Justice - All out
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Old 03-21-2012, 11:17 AM   #413
DavidCorperial
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David Ginsberg will start with average
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Old 03-21-2012, 12:42 PM   #414
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Quote:
Only problem is that many of the people around him on the leaderboard are also poor in the 1500...including, Nielsen and McCloud (but even being poor they aren't nearly as bad as Babson)

That hurts Babson's feelings.

Babson - All Out
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Old 03-21-2012, 01:05 PM   #415
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Just need Gonzalez and McCloud to report in and I'll be able to post results from the 1st throw...
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Old 03-21-2012, 04:55 PM   #416
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reading...
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Old 03-21-2012, 04:59 PM   #417
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avg for mccloud
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:32 PM   #418
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Gonzalez - average


Damn, my guy isn't good in any event
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Old 03-21-2012, 09:58 PM   #419
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Originally Posted by kingfc22 View Post
Gonzalez - average


Damn, my guy isn't good in any event

how did you manage that?
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Old 03-22-2012, 10:53 AM   #420
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Event 9 - Javelin - 1st Attempt


Babson - steps up to take his turn...he needs a good throw to add some cushion to his lead, because he knows the 1500 will be touch and go regardless of how far in front he is...he starts down the runway and he is really going after this one, he lets it fly with a loud roar...and...WOW...this is a big effort...it's sailing...sailing and it sticks...that's a long one. Official Distance - 233 feet - this may have just won the entire meet...a huge attempt from the overall leader. I count only 3 better results total...with 2 being throws of 235 and 1 being a toss of 237.

Ginsberg - - After seeing Babson's effort he knows he needs a good throw and it appears he's going to try and use his raw speed to create more distance, only the effects of this effort are he overshoots the launch line and
Fouls.

Nielsen - The Big Danes' effort is good for a first attempt...as the javelin lands at 210 feet - This is good, but it would be in the lower half of results in the average column.

McCloud - as was mentioned in the event preview, McCloud is one of the event favorites. After seen Babson's throw the pressure is on to post an equally good score...he makes his throw...and it's a good one...he may have done it, he may have matched Babson's attempt...waiting on the official results...............232 feet - That will certainly keep pace with Babson. From a game mechanics standpoint you rolled the 36 decribed in the card breakdown. I count only 4 results better in total, a 236 and 3 235s all in the allout column.

Llyw - His first turn is up, and he gives it a good launch...it is a pretty good first throw...OHHHHHH!!!...the javelin didn't stick so it's a Foul


Rambis - In his first throw he really goes after it, but his extra effort affected his form as he rotated to early and had a slightly late release...that said the 1st throw still gives him a good result to build on but a little less effort and a little more technique probably would have resulted in a better throw - official result - 216 - actually would have had a better result with an average throw...quite a few better outcomes still available

Justice - Justice's first attempt is a poor one, but at least he's on the board...no heading into a final throw without a score this time around...194 - this is the second lowest result in the column...

Bafou - Having to nurse his injury, Bafou gives it a valant effort and he's pretty successful with a toss of 203 - 5 results in the column are better with the high being a 209...

McGillicuddy - over extends on the toss and crosses the white line Foul

Ashkayev - First throw, even giving he has to nurse the injury isn't a very good one for him...187 - a bunch of better results in the column

Gunderson - his toss is good, but the trajectory is a bit high, costing him a little distance...211 - this is on the lower portion of potential outcomes in the column...

Gonzalez - Gives his first toss a good heave and is pretty successful with a distance of 213 - 9 results better in the average column, but most are only a few feet better, 3 results better in the all out, and they are 10+ feet better...

Last edited by Breeze : 03-22-2012 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:00 AM   #421
Coffee Warlord
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Nielsen - All Out
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:09 AM   #422
Breeze
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Event 9 - Javelin - Standings After 1st Attempt


Code:
Babson - 233 McCloud - 232 Rambus - 216 Gonzalez - 213 Gunderson - 211 Nielsen - 210 Bafou - 203 Justice - 194 Ashkayev - 187 Ginsberg - Foul Llyw - Foul McGillicuddy - Foul
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:21 AM   #423
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Babson:

"One vault. One throw. And soon, one race. I've got some new shoes to help with that."

Babson passes on throws 2 and 3.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:23 AM   #424
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David Ginsberg average again.
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Old 03-22-2012, 11:43 AM   #425
mrkilla22
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Frank Justice - All out
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Old 03-22-2012, 12:48 PM   #426
kingfc22
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Gonzalez - All out
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Old 03-22-2012, 01:56 PM   #427
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Average for Rambis.
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Old 03-22-2012, 02:53 PM   #428
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Gunderson All Out
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Old 03-22-2012, 03:31 PM   #429
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McGillicuddy - Normal
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Old 03-22-2012, 04:23 PM   #430
chesapeake
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Llyw - Normal
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Old 03-23-2012, 06:15 AM   #431
Breeze
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Just waiting on Fox...

need to know if you are going to go again or pass the rest of the attempts...

Last edited by Breeze : 03-23-2012 at 06:15 AM.
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Old 03-23-2012, 07:46 AM   #432
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Event 9 - Javelin - 2nd Attempt


Babson - Didn't show up for his turn in the second round...PASS

Ginsberg - - Again attempts to use a fast run up to transfer the energy into the toss...this time he stays behind the line and posts a distance of...204 One of the higher results in the column as only 4 are better in the average and 3 in the allout, but some of the results are significantly better (read 10+ feet better).

Nielsen - Over the line Foul

McCloud - Also has elected to pass in order to save his energy for the 1500...reports have it that he is currently at the bar buying Babson Beer, while he is apparently drinking Gatorade - but we haven't been able to confirm that...Pass

Llyw - In the middle of battling for a medal and maybe the outright win, Llyw, who has had great results in some of the previous field events, comes in with a foul...and on his second throw his just barely crosses the line and now he will go into his final attempt with no points on the board, needing a throw to stay in the competition Foul - This is a tough decision...does he go conservative to get a score but risk falling so far behind the leaders that he can't get on the podium, or does he risk completely falling out of the competition by making an average or aggressive attempt but potentially postion himself to challenge for the overall win with a good toss...

Rambis - Second throw is more controlled but not as far...looks like he probably over corrected by concentrating on form and a little more effort might have resulted in a better distance - 210 Feet - This time the allout column would have been within 4 feet of a maxout

Justice - Justice's toss was about 215 feet, but the javelin didn't stick so it is a Foul - Still sitting on a poor distance of 194 with 1 more toss to grab as many points as possible.

Bafou - Doesn't improve on his first attempt... 197

McGillicuddy - Get his throw in the grid, but it isn't a good one...will head into the final toss sitting on an embarassingly short throw of 176 - This is one of only 6 results in the column in the 170s - it isn't a good event for McGillicuddy but this is still bad luck...

Ashkayev - Gets a better result this time...by a significant margin...waiting the final measurement...203 - There are better results available in the column...I count 5 with a quick glance...but some are significantly better...

Gunderson - Crosses the white line....Foul

Gonzalez - almost like watching a replay...Gonzalez crosses the white line and it looks just like Gunderson's attempt...Foul

Last edited by Breeze : 03-23-2012 at 07:48 AM.
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Old 03-23-2012, 08:06 AM   #433
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Event 9 - Javelin - Standings After 2nd Attempt


Code:
Babson - 233 McCloud - 232 Rambus - 216 Gonzalez - 213 Gunderson - 211 Nielsen - 210 Ginsberg - 204 Bafou - 203 Ashkayev - 203 Justice - 194 McGillicuddy - 176 Llyw - Foul
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Old 03-23-2012, 08:14 AM   #434
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Dammit. I really wanted to rest this last round, but 210 just ain't gonna do it.

Gimme an average.
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Old 03-23-2012, 08:19 AM   #435
chesapeake
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Llyw - average

I'm in to win.
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Old 03-23-2012, 08:59 AM   #436
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If it's any benefit to his stamina to pass, Bafou will do it. Otherwise, another safe throw, as that's all he can do. (grumble)
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Old 03-23-2012, 09:23 AM   #437
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Gonzalez - all out
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Old 03-23-2012, 10:57 AM   #438
mrkilla22
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Frank Justice - All out
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Old 03-23-2012, 11:29 AM   #439
Breeze
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Just waiting on Ginsberg, Rambis, McGillicuddy and Gunderson...
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Old 03-23-2012, 11:51 AM   #440
DavidCorperial
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Can I get info on what rolls I can get the better results on.
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Old 03-23-2012, 12:12 PM   #441
Breeze
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Originally Posted by DavidCorperial View Post
Can I get info on what rolls I can get the better results on.

Sure...

Average Column

10 - 205
12 - 212
15 - 214
21 - 205
27 - 214


All Out

17 - 219
23 - 214
28 - 219
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Old 03-23-2012, 12:22 PM   #442
DavidCorperial
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I'll go all out on this toss.
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Old 03-23-2012, 12:36 PM   #443
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fuck all - Gunderson All OUt
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Old 03-23-2012, 12:43 PM   #444
Breeze
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Ok, I've now run (and recorded) every possible outcome of the meet...just not sure which one I'll get to write up yet...
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Old 03-23-2012, 01:05 PM   #445
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the one where Ashkayev goes back in time and doesnt take that injury inducing toss, and stays healthy and doesn't finish in last?
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Old 03-23-2012, 01:14 PM   #446
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the one where Ashkayev goes back in time and doesnt take that injury inducing toss, and stays healthy and doesn't finish in last?

Actually I forgot that scenario...I recant my previous statement...I have more work to do...
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Old 03-23-2012, 02:20 PM   #447
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Ugh, been unlucky this whole time. Here's hoping the 1500 can keep me out of last.

McGillicuddy - Normal
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Old 03-23-2012, 04:30 PM   #448
Simbo Klice
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Rambis will go average 1 more time.
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Old 03-26-2012, 09:46 AM   #449
Breeze
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Event 9 - Javelin - 3rd Attempt


Babson - Passes again

Ginsberg - - Trying to improve on his 204...but he's over the line again...Fouls.

Nielsen - Can't improve on his throw as he is over the white line...Pass

McCloud - Passes - still working on getting Babson drunk before the 1500

Llyw - Comes in with 2 fouls, got to get a throw in the grid...and if he wants to be a factor on the leaderboard he'll need a good throw. He makes his approach, launches the javelin and watches it fly...it's a good throw...no white flag at the line, as long as it stickes he'll record a score, no he'll record a good score...it does stick and Llyw will end the event with a distance of...225 Not a ton of better results available on the card regardless of column...nice result under the circumstances.

Rambis - His throw will be successful, but it looks a lot like the last one, and isn't going to match the distance of his first attempt...209

Justice - Sitting on a poor result of 194 right now, Justice needs a better throw here or he'll really need a strong 1500 to get on the podium...he makes his toss...this will be an improvement, but not what he was hoping for...
203 - bad luck as there are a bunch of better results on the card

Bafou - The trows from Bafou continue to get shorter as his injury sets in more...188

McGillicuddy - Sitting on a terrible 176 distance, McGillicuddy throws again...and oh my goodness...this throw is going to be in the grid, but I think it is actually going to be shorter than his 1st throw. I know McGillicuddy typically throws in the upper 190s to 200s...I find it almost impossible that he ends up with a distance of 175 - bad luck continues as he ends up with a result that is in the bottom 6 on the average column...

Ashkayev - Can't improve on his 203...191

Gunderson - over extends and falls across the white line Foul

Gonzalez - throw isn't an improvement 194
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Old 03-26-2012, 10:20 AM   #450
Breeze
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Event 9 - Javelin - Results

Code:
Babson - 233 McCloud - 232 Llyw - 225 Rambus - 216 Gonzalez - 213 Gunderson - 211 Nielsen - 210 Ginsberg - 204 Bafou - 203 Justice - 203 Ashkayev - 203 McGillicuddy - 176

Last edited by Breeze : 03-26-2012 at 11:23 AM.
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