Werewolf XXVI: The Thing - GAME OVER! THINGS WIN!!!

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Looking at my notebook, I shouldn't have agreed with post #654. My final vote count was as follows:

Hoopsguy - Dubb
Tanglewood - Anxiety
Raiders - Blade, Barkeep, hoopsguy
Jeeber - path, Swaggs
Dubb - Raiders Army, mckerney, JeeberD, tanglewood, Coffee Warlord
Blade - st. cronin

I did NOT count the 9:01 votes as they were clearly past the deadline. Sorry if I confused anyone.

Thank you for clearing that up schmidty

[Blade6119]

So raiders, care to tell me again how im utterly ignoring the facts and shopping for answers now that schmidty has made a new official list?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Damn it CW I had you as the seer already. I wish you hadn't come out. That's why I asked you yesterday how confident of your vote you were. When you told me not too confident I knew you hadn't scanned him. Damn.

Like I said, the Seer role in this game is far weaker than usual. Potential to be converted if I nail someone, and views are "valid' for a very short time. I still wonder if there isn't a second seer, as weak (and damned necessary) as they are.

That, and if you picked up on it, there's always the potential a Thing did. Paranoia on not being able to reveal ANYTHING got me talking.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Paranoia on not being able to reveal ANYTHING got me talking.

Paranoia was the main thing I wanted in my game.

[WVUFAN]

Guys, I'm here -- I evidently misunderstood how long the game was on hiatus for, so I haven't even been checking the thread. I'm catching up right now.

Like I said earlier, we're still on the path of wanting to test the same person every single time. We're still flying blind, so here's my flying blind vote --

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Blade6119]

RAIDERS??? Cat got your tounge?

[JeeberD]

I'll admit, I've got a crappy voting record so far. But trust me when I tell you that I'm still clean. And going off of what CW and RA have said, for now I'm going to...

Vote blade

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

So raiders, care to tell me again how im utterly ignoring the facts and shopping for answers now that schmidty has made a new official list?

You ignored the fact that was there. You shopped for your answer. And you know what? it doesn't make a difference. You still voted for a scientist.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

RAIDERS??? Cat got your tounge?

Was rolling home from work. Also, I see you edited your previous post.

[Raiders Army]

FWIW,

VOTE BLADE6119

Just because his reaction puts him over the top over Jeeber.

[dubb93]

I'm leaving my vote where it is. I assume we have atleast two things at this point, and if you got the seer, it would be a pretty good time for him to come and if he gets killed later say he was turned afterwords. It is very hard to trust people in this version of the game.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

You ignored the fact that was there. You shopped for your answer. And you know what? it doesn't make a difference. You still voted for a scientist.

Misdirection is always key when you're on the other side.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

So raiders, care to tell me again how im utterly ignoring the facts and shopping for answers now that schmidty has made a new official list?

Please do not edit posts. You should know that Blade.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, the game has pretty much exploded. And we have eight people (plus one guest) viewing the thread right now. Very cool indeed, after a pretty slow start.

I've glanced through the posts since the night actions, but it looks like there is a ton to digest here.

- WVU, glad to have you back in the game.

- CW = seer. I had considered this after Barkeep asked about it and discarded it at that time. But thinking back on his posts he did express early on Day 2 that he thought I was on the side of the angels this time. That would be consistent with his thoughts on a Night 1 scan.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm leaving my vote where it is. I assume we have atleast two things at this point, and if you got the seer, it would be a pretty good time for him to come and if he gets killed later say he was turned afterwords. It is very hard to trust people in this version of the game.

I'm glad that you are questioning CW. I thought the same thing when looking at my voting spreadsheet. Based upon what I know, I believe him. But looking at it not knowing for sure I am a scientist I see four possibilities:

1. He's a Thing, I'm a Thing. For him to come out like this to "save" me would mean that our situation is dire or the endgame is in sight. I don't think either is the case.

2. He's the Seer, I'm a Thing. This doesn't make any sense unless I'm a Thing that when viewed, am viewed as a Scientist. This is a possibility.

3. He's a Thing, I'm a scientist. Again, I don't see the play here for him to do this, other than gain your trust for one day...and the tradeoff isn't worth it.

4. He's the Seer, I'm a scientist. This is the most likely scenario as he's stated his reasons for coming out at this point.

Scenarios 2 and 3 I throw away. The only one I would be worried about is scenario 1, which I don't see happening numbers-wise. There are 14 of us left. For this gambit to work, I would guess that there would have to be at least 4 things out there.

[tanglewood]

Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy and we could unofficially vote for who to view at night. I am sure that there are some downsides to this idea, namely that that we only get one chance to discover a Thing rather than two, but it would be one confirmed chance as opposed with a guarenteed GG as opposed to one chance, another suspect reported chance and no confirmed GGs. What does everyone else think?

[Raiders Army]

With the updated voting, I have Blade as the top suspect.

Day 1: Jeebs (known scientist at that point)
Day 2, vote 1: Barkeep49 (who supposedly killed a Thing)
Day 2, vote 2: dubb (known scientist)
Day 3: Raiders Army (known scientist to me and CW, Alleged Seer scientist to you)

I will go back and see why he didn't vote for saldana and why he voted for Barkeep on the Day 2 vote 1.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy and we could unofficially vote for who to view at night. I am sure that there are some downsides to this idea, namely that that we only get one chance to discover a Thing rather than two, but it would be one confirmed chance as opposed with a guarenteed GG as opposed to one chance, another suspect reported chance and no confirmed GGs. What does everyone else think?

I think that's a pretty good strategy and I agree with it, but I don't think we should check him today. It's just a wasted check unless you can come up with a plausible scenario as to why he isn't telling the truth.

[WVUFAN]

Thanks, hoopsguy.

I have to say we scientists are REALLY hurting right now, because unlike most WW games, there really isn't anyone safe. Is there anyway any of us can think of to truly establish a "safe" list, given the fact that any one of us could be a scientist one night, and a Thing the next?

Also, does anyone know how many Things the game began with?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

As we still have pretty much nothing to go on, and I think, at this point, a vote on Jeeber is a waste (we have to clear some more people first - we can't just do repeat votes on the same person)....

There are a few people I fear as "wolves" always. I want him either cleared or killed.

Vote Raiders Army

This was also post #252 on the Day 2 voting. Interesting because it backs up why he checked me out on Night 2.

[JeeberD]

tanglewood's strategy sounds really solid...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy and we could unofficially vote for who to view at night. I am sure that there are some downsides to this idea, namely that that we only get one chance to discover a Thing rather than two, but it would be one confirmed chance as opposed with a guarenteed GG as opposed to one chance, another suspect reported chance and no confirmed GGs. What does everyone else think?

That's a terrible idea: We need to catch a thing EVERY day. The value of clearing somebody does not come close to the value of the Things increasing their numbers while we hope the seer sees one.

I was convinced Blade was a Thing YESTERDAY, and I remain convinced:

VOTE BLADE

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by tanglewood

Here's an idea I just had after catching up. Why not just check Coffee Warlord today to see if he is the seer. If he checks out, then we keep voting for him every day afterward and let him do al the seeing at night. That way we have one confirmed good guy ...

Because he's only a confirmed good guy for that night and that night alone. I've never seen anything to indicate that a seer can't be converted to a Thing, and that is precisely the type of option they would do.

My question is why come out as a Seer, knowing that makes you a target? It's fishy, and there's no way to confirm it. It sounds like a bait and switch.

[Barkeep49]

WVU: If CW is a fake he's been planting the seeds for a while. Now there's the chance that he was converted last night, which makes this an interesting play, but CW didn't come out of nowhere with this claim as I definitely saw subtle signs of this when I was going through posts for the six.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Because he's only a confirmed good guy for that night and that night alone. I've never seen anything to indicate that a seer can't be converted to a Thing, and that is precisely the type of option they would do.

My question is why come out as a Seer, knowing that makes you a target? It's fishy, and there's no way to confirm it. It sounds like a bait and switch.

I tend to believe he is a seer. I don't think it's a solid strategy for the Things, considering he wasn't really a prime suspect.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

WVU: If CW is a fake he's been planting the seeds for a while. Now there's the chance that he was converted last night, which makes this an interesting play, but CW didn't come out of nowhere with this claim as I definitely saw subtle signs of this when I was going through posts for the six.

I'm not saying he's a fake, I'm saying he was a Seer and got converted, and THEN he came forward as a Seer.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

I'm not saying he's a fake, I'm saying he was a Seer and got converted, and THEN he came forward as a Seer.

I don't understand how that would be a good strategy.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

I'm not saying he's a fake, I'm saying he was a Seer and got converted, and THEN he came forward as a Seer.

Gotcha. A definite possiblity.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't understand how that would be a good strategy.

Because by coming forward it grants him the presumption of innocence and credibility. Why would we risk wasting a day on our seer? That said I am not willing to risk wasting a day on our seer .

[st.cronin]

dola: For example, let's say he claimed RA was clean because they're both Things. So we vote for somebody else, who comes up clean. Both CW and RA shoot to the top of the suspect list.

[st.cronin]

and the possible downside would be tremendous (assuming both RA and CW are things) - if his advice doesn't get heeded, and we vote for RA anyway ... they lose their night cycle and our next vote is unaminous

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't understand how that would be a good strategy.

Because it does what it's doing right now -- getting groups of people defending him. Isn't that the target of the Things -- establish one Thing as safe, as someone one wouldn't "waste" a vote to test, while the rest convert?

[Raiders Army]

Here's why Blade voted for Barkeep:

Post #282

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Vote Barkeep49

To be fair, I also found this:

Post #224

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Ummm, i hate to break it to you but we can't really do a damn thing to stop him. Though if i was around(which i wont be much until this weekend), he would have been my vote as he may be a thing that knows he can kill tonight. Sorry to waste a lynch on ya jeebs, and now make you a top suspect tomorrow. My vote that started it was all for fun between mods, didnt really expect you to get the vote.


As for the brilliant thing, here was my post(the first to mention brilliant):



I got it in my PM, i didnt see schmidty lay out any rules against using it as a code to find get on a few trust lists at first. I never saw the other players post the brilliant thing(someone want to quote them all for me). Hoops seemed to just grasp on to the idea, where as dubb and raiders knew what they were talking about. Either way, i think today was a very bad day. I was hoping(damn you raiders) no one would say it out loud, but just see it and go about their days. Now, we have made the Things job far easier and ours far more difficult. They have a couple confirmed villagers, and a couple not. Depending on which way they want to go, either way their job just got a lot easier. Damn you all

It seems as if he wants to validate Barkeep, which I can certainly understand; however, I find this interesting:

Post #225

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Dola, the one bright spot left is that there are other parts of the PM yet discussed we can still use as a clue if needed. But really, after one conversion that whole key will fall to us. So do you all want to use the other parts of the PM tonight/in the morning? It might at first give us a group to look at. Hell, use it to clear all the villagers we can, and then look at the group of around 6(2-3 things) and just test away

There are two things in here that ring some alarm bells. Anyone who knows what I know will think the same.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Because it does what it's doing right now -- getting groups of people defending him. Isn't that the target of the Things -- establish one Thing as safe, as someone one wouldn't "waste" a vote to test, while the rest convert?

Do you not see the magic of this strategy? Essentially, CW becomes the vote and we validate him. Once we find out he's been converted, the strategy is done with. The only problem with this scenario is that if I were a Thing, I could convert him as soon as possible to negate this strategy. At the very least, it buys us a free conversion.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola: For example, let's say he claimed RA was clean because they're both Things. So we vote for somebody else, who comes up clean. Both CW and RA shoot to the top of the suspect list.

If I were a Thing (and I'm not), I would save a clean player. If he comes forward and saves Raiders, who is clean, and we test Raiders anyway, it establishes CW as safe.

The whole thing revolves around an action that "proves" CW is safe. What not better than save a clean player? But, you're right, you don't save another Thing, which is why I say Raider's is safe, but Coffee isn't.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

If I were a Thing (and I'm not), I would save a clean player. If he comes forward and saves Raiders, who is clean, and we test Raiders anyway, it establishes CW as safe.

The whole thing revolves around an action that "proves" CW is safe. What not better than save a clean player? But, you're right, you don't save another Thing, which is why I say Raider's is safe, but Coffee isn't.

Again, see my post #715. Scenario 3. All it nets him is 24 hours of trust. That's it. The tradeoff isn't worth it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

If I were a Thing (and I'm not), I would save a clean player. If he comes forward and saves Raiders, who is clean, and we test Raiders anyway, it establishes CW as safe.

The whole thing revolves around an action that "proves" CW is safe. What not better than save a clean player? But, you're right, you don't save another Thing, which is why I say Raider's is safe, but Coffee isn't.

No, I disagree - I think a Thing would only bust out this strategy if one of their own were about to get tested. Or, possibly, they might use it as an endgame strategy. So if RA is clean, then CW is clean, and vice versa. I mean, I know that in this game the bad play is sometimes the good play, but all the attention was on RA: Who had CW as a real suspect?

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Again, see my post #715. Scenario 3. All it nets him is 24 hours of trust. That's it. The tradeoff isn't worth it.

Why only one day? Day 1 -- Coffee saves you, and you're clean.
Day 2 -- You're tested -- you're clean. Coffee becomes safe.

Why would someone else vote for Coffee? He's saves you, and you're not a Thing. FOr most, that validates Coffee.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No, I disagree - I think a Thing would only bust out this strategy if one of their own were about to get tested. Or, possibly, they might use it as an endgame strategy. So if RA is clean, then CW is clean, and vice versa. I mean, I know that in this game the bad play is sometimes the good play, but all the attention was on RA: Who had CW as a real suspect?

No one did. So why come forward as a Seer, knowing that targets you?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

Why only one day? Day 1 -- Coffee saves you, and you're clean.
Day 2 -- You're tested -- you're clean. Coffee becomes safe.

Why would someone else vote for Coffee? He's saves you, and you're not a Thing. FOr most, that validates Coffee.

You can only trust someone for one day. We always have to take into account the possibility of him being converted that night.

[WVUFAN]

dola -- Lemme make it official:

UNVOTE TANGLEWOOD
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

No one did. So why come forward as a Seer, knowing that targets you?

See: It only makes sense IF he's really the seer, and he knew RA was clean. Otherwise, if either CW or both were Things, the strategy makes NO sense.

[Coffee Warlord]

I direct you all to watch the people pushing for me for later voting.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

See: It only makes sense IF he's really the seer, and he knew RA was clean. Otherwise, if either CW or both were Things, the strategy makes NO sense.

That's not what I'm saying -- I'm not saying RA is a Thing. I'm saying Coffee was converted early, and RA is clean.

You guys say, and correctly so, that it only saves CW for one day. That's the case for EVERYONE. I'm saying, and it's showing from his defenders here, that he will get the benefit of the doubt EACH night. If you guys don't at least try and test him tonight, by the time there's enough votes to test him again, it'll be too late.

[Raiders Army]

Dude, whatever. I've drunk too much beer at this point to argue with you. I'll either assume you don't see what's going on since you've been AWOL or you're a Thing.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

That's not what I'm saying -- I'm not saying RA is a Thing. I'm saying Coffee was converted early, and RA is clean.

You guys say, and correctly so, that it only saves CW for one day. That's the case for EVERYONE. I'm saying, and it's showing from his defenders here, that he will get the benefit of the doubt EACH night. If you guys don't at least try and test him tonight, by the time there's enough votes to test him again, it'll be too late.

Yes yes, if you don't trust me and think I was converted, the following is meaningless.

Part of the reason I came out was to try and force us to NOT focus on someone who is almost certainly Not A Thing. We waste a day if we vote RA, which is where it was headed. We waste a day if we vote me (AND my role is blown), which is what I was trying to avoid in the first place.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Dude, whatever. I've drunk too much beer at this point to argue with you. I'll either assume you don't see what's going on since you've been AWOL or you're a Thing.

Frankly, I'm thinking he's the latter.

[tanglewood]

Okay, if my previous suggestion has been passed on (I'd still like everyone to at least chip in with what they think), then I reckon that today we should test one of the prime suspects who are being banded about, my preference would be one from Barkeep (to still go back and try to confirm Quik's death, I do notice that he hasn't been swearing etc. lately), JeeberD or Blade. Others may want to go after RA or whomever. Then at night Coffee Warlord has another viewing, in the morning reports his viewing, and we test him to confrim/deny veracity.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by WVUFAN

That's not what I'm saying -- I'm not saying RA is a Thing. I'm saying Coffee was converted early, and RA is clean.

You guys say, and correctly so, that it only saves CW for one day. That's the case for EVERYONE. I'm saying, and it's showing from his defenders here, that he will get the benefit of the doubt EACH night. If you guys don't at least try and test him tonight, by the time there's enough votes to test him again, it'll be too late.

Not to get testy, but you're not remotely addressing the logic that I'm presenting. Coffee was NOT a suspect. Assuming he's a Thing, why bust out a new strategy? There's absolutely ZERO upside, unless both he and RA are Things - then it could maybe buy them another day. But the downside is enormous in that situation. It's a massively risky strategy.

Possibility 1: CW is seer, and RA is clean. I would have done the same thing he did.

Possibility 2: CW is Thing, and RA is clean. In this case, why not let RA get tested? CW would then get one more Thing.

Possibility 3: CW is Thing, and RA is Thing: Here the strategy would make SOME sense, but it would also be highly risky, because some players would want to test CW right away (as you do). Others would still want to test RA, either way CW or RA gets tested, they lose a night cycle, and whichever one didn't get bbqed first, gets bbqed second.

[WVUFAN]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Frankly, I'm thinking he's the latter.

Excellent. Well, if y'all are gonna waste a test, might as well be on me. Go ahead and test away. It just gives CW and the other Things more time to convert.

But, absolutely, test ahead.