Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[Passacaglia]

Of course, it could be mob activity designed to cast blame on DV, setting him up for the next day.

[Darth Vilus]

I don't know it it's blame or not but they definitely caused some confusion alright. Mob or not Mob

[Autumn]

If you had a winning bet, or a winning bid, you should have received a PM by now.

The going rates for services on Day 2:

Tank Wallace, Professional Bodyguard - $2,500
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator - $1,500
Cassie's Escort Agency - $250
Knuckles Cassini - $1,501
Destiny, Vegas Showgirl - $151
Speedeez Courier Service - $152
Kalustian Betting Parlor - $220
24 Hour Check Cashing - $50
Lefty Fingers, Acquisitions - $1,000
Graceland Wedding Chapel - $100

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

the fact that these posts came 3 minutes apart make me think you indeed got a summary from someone...

Nope. Posted the first one, then read back a couple posts to where the summary of the vote count was, and in absence of a summary from anyone else quickly (I was impatient), I thought that making it 5-3-3 would lead to telling us something about darth vs. you vs. whoever was one vote ahead of you (i forget who it was now).

Wanted to get the vote in so I could go back to what I was doing and figured that bringing two people into 2nd place with 3 votes left would tell us something.

I think you're just being really defensive because I voted for you - moreso than you typically are even.

[cougarfreak]

So, Autumn...........what 's the weekend schedule?

[Autumn]

I want to give people time to get their bets and night orders in. I was thinking of stretching the night phase until 9 p.m. Saturday. However, I would be glad to end it sooner if everyone gets their stuff in sooner.

Day 3 will then stretch until 9 p.m. Monday.

[DaddyTorgo]

That run on me in the last like 10 minutes stinks - as Pass and Saldana noted.

Seriously - reeks horribly.

And so what - Lathum's a frequent D1 target, so yeah I put my bet on him - it's not like I voted him that night. And I didn't put my bet on him for today either.

[Darth Vilus]

when do we have to put our bets in by?

[Autumn]

I forgot to put in new cash totals to people who gained or lost cash. I'm beat from doing all that. If you're unsure of your cash situation just message me.

[The Jackal]

What a bizarre turn of events. I for one hope that whoever bid on the bet results was a villager and is going to share it, to see who all bet on PF. That's one thing that I did not bid on myself.

[mauchow]

Interesting.. I'm guessing that Jackal put everything they had into the bet and bid it all on the BG. So we can hypothesize that $1500 is the going rate for correct bets. Unless of course Chief Rum correctly guessed the first day and just edited his bet to show ntndeacon instead of the actual winner. So I think we can safely say that the pot for bets are either $1500 (85% chance) or $3000 (15% chance). I can see why CR would cover his tracks so it doesn't make him a target. Depends on I guess what you want to believe.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What a bizarre turn of events. I for one hope that whoever bid on the bet results was a villager and is going to share it, to see who all bet on PF. That's one thing that I did not bid on myself.

I wonder if we can trust that person. I still doubt all the wolves bet on PF -- and it could be that none of them did, and they're trying to lead us to voting elsewhere. Man, there's tons of info in this game, but we can't completely trust any of it.

Still, it's encouraging that the wolves have spent over 2600 already. If there were 6 wolves to start, that's like 6000? So they might run out of kills soon.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I wonder if we can trust that person. I still doubt all the wolves bet on PF -- and it could be that none of them did, and they're trying to lead us to voting elsewhere. Man, there's tons of info in this game, but we can't completely trust any of it.

Still, it's encouraging that the wolves have spent over 2600 already. If there were 6 wolves to start, that's like 6000? So they might run out of kills soon.

But, wolves can win money through betting as well, correct? Or am I wrong? Help a newbie out! Maybe it wasn't a good idea for me to be in this one, it seems more complicated than the average game.

[Passacaglia]

No worries -- yes, I believe they can win money through betting, but hopefully they haven't? (also, editing posts is not allowed in WW games)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

when do we have to put our bets in by?

As it stands, bets are due by 9 p.m. Saturday. I'd love to cut night shorter than that though, if everyone gets their stuff in sooner.

[Darth Vilus]

Well I'm going to go bowl my ass off, I'll see you guys in a bit. Who woulda though that Darth Vilus would have survived today? Not I said the Sith Lord

[saldana]

what i want to know is why no one is owning up to whatever changed the lynch outcome. i cant imagine any service that gets you 4 extra votes.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by saldana

what i want to know is why no one is owning up to whatever changed the lynch outcome. i cant imagine any service that gets you 4 extra votes.

Either that person hasn't come round since the deadline or, and more likely, it was a mob oriented move that they clearly don't want to reveal. Which is why it will be interesting to see the bet results from today, if that is revealed to us tomorrow (or Sunday, whenever).

[Darth Vilus]

i don't mean to sound arrogant but I think the Mob wanted to keep me around a bit longer because i was on to them. They kill me and i come up good shows that I was telling the truth the whole time. If they leave me alive there is still that air of suspicion around me that will distract the vegas residents.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

i don't mean to sound arrogant but I think the Mob wanted to keep me around a bit longer because i was on to them. They kill me and i come up good shows that I was telling the truth the whole time. If they leave me alive there is still that air of suspicion around me that will distract the vegas residents.

That would make sense if you were JAG, but unless I'm missing it, I don't think you've come out with any information. Can you refresh our (okay, my) memory?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Either that person hasn't come round since the deadline or, and more likely, it was a mob oriented move that they clearly don't want to reveal. Which is why it will be interesting to see the bet results from today, if that is revealed to us tomorrow (or Sunday, whenever).

Wolf or villager, I could see whoever did it not wanting to own up to it -- it wouldn't clear them like a normal duke, and all it does is let everyone know they were responsible for killing a villager. Also, I find it unlikely that a wolf would bet on PF, duke to him (or do whatever to make him the lynch), and put themselves at the center of attention just for some cash. Does anyone remember if someone already said they bet on PF?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That would make sense if you were JAG, but unless I'm missing it, I don't think you've come out with any information. Can you refresh our (okay, my) memory?

He hasn't come out with any info, I think he's just referring to telling the truth about being a villager.

[mauchow]

I'm just going to go along with the assumption that DV knew that he was going to be saved and just continued to act like a villager through the end of the day. That's the way I'm going to keep moving forward for this next day until something concrete comes in, sorry DV.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Wolf or villager, I could see whoever did it not wanting to own up to it -- it wouldn't clear them like a normal duke, and all it does is let everyone know they were responsible for killing a villager. Also, I find it unlikely that a wolf would bet on PF, duke to him (or do whatever to make him the lynch), and put themselves at the center of attention just for some cash. Does anyone remember if someone already said they bet on PF?

I don't think people are revealing who they bet on anymore (last one I can recall is you on Lathum, was that yesterday?). So no, I don't think so. And you are right, that would be a huge finger point if we are shown the bet history from yesterday, but maybe the wolves tried to make sure they won that bet so as to not reveal it. Guess we'll find out more after the day starts.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Voices are loud, tempers flaring, accusations flying as the residents of Vegas meet today. Sure you may have made a mistake about J23 yesterday, but Danny's body in the dumpster has you all spooked. Someone's trying to scare you out of Vegas, and you don't know who. Or do you? It's Jackal. It's Lathum! No, Darth Vilus! Obviously it's PackerFanatic, clearly Daddy Torgo ...

It seems you've settled on Darth Vilus at least, leaving the crowd stunned and sober as the votes are counted. The room bursts into voice though as the results are read. How could this be?

Packer Fanatic is named as the leading vote getter. He doesn't even think to run as the cops nab him. Everyone stares in shock as he's dragged away. How did that happen?

Woah - I miss an evening of action, looks like DV is gonna get lynched, and then BAM! Well good luck village! Go get em!

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Autumn

There may be some hidden roles or hidden victory conditions in the game, however.

Wow! I started reading the thread last night on the way home from Philadelphia, and my head hurt. I think we have to assume one of two ways that the voting was rigged:
(1) One of the purchased roles allowed that to happen. Nothing is readily apparent. I believe Chief Rum showed us the results of the Betting Parlor. There was no indication that he could sway a future bet. Then there are the two mysterious services: Cassie's Escort Agency & Destiny the showgirl. Perhaps they have more influence than I expected.
(2) The above quote from Autumn is where I'm hanging my hat. I suggest that a hidden role caused this vote switch. If that's the case, then who benefited the most? Obviously DV is one. If we look at the voting pattern, two things stand out. Those that voted for DV:

Darth Vilus (6) - Packerfanatic 299, The Jackal 369, tyketime 389, saldana 409, chief rum 452, passacaglia 511

But that would only work if one of those six knew about the vote switcheroo.

Daddy Torgo (5) - Lathum 492, ntndeacon 495, hoopsguy 499, darth vilus 504, JAG 508

The late run on DT seems suspicious to me.

[mckerney]

I was out last night and checked in and that PackerFanatic was the one lynched but I was just now able to go back and read how it happened. Like everyone else I'm not sure what to make of it yet...

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

He hasn't come out with any info, I think he's just referring to telling the truth about being a villager.

Either that, or he's talking about his suspicion of you. But I'm not sure I buy that. I don't think the wolves had reason to fear that if DV dies and turns up good, we'd all go "Crap, that must mean he was right about The Jackal!"

[The Jackal]

Yeah, we are only really linked because he was looking for someone to get a run going parallel to him. Wishing this night phase wasn't lasting until 9 PM!

[hoopsguy]

Well, if there is a villager out there that has the seer role I would hope they would consider the following candidates (in my preferred order):
1.) Jackal (can't keep saying "well he has cash so we have to let him live)
2.) Darth (voting interests each of last two days)
3.) DT (another beneficiary of last night)
4.) Lathum (think he is good, would not mind knowing for sure)

[hoopsguy]

Also, upon further reflection I think I know what happened last night and it wasn't a duke. I'm debating whether to throw out my theory now, or hold onto it until the next day phase.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, upon further reflection I think I know what happened last night and it wasn't a duke. I'm debating whether to throw out my theory now, or hold onto it until the next day phase.

I don't have any good ideas on what happened, but as for why I can think of 4 possibilities.

1. Darth doing it to save himself as a villager.
2. Darth is a wolf and he or another wolf did it in order to save him without risking the suspicion of a late coordinated vote switch.
3. Darth is a villager and a wolf called for the switch so they could take out another villager with the lynch today but keep Darth a top suspect for the next lynching.
4. Someone believed Darth was a popular betting option and didn't want too many people being paid out if he were to be lynched.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

VOTING

As in any Werewolf game the group will vote for a lynch each day. The leading vote getter will be lynched, and role and allegiance revealed upon death. Deadline for voting will be 9 pm EST, and any votes marked 9:01 will not be counted. A tie will be resolved by unknown means.

We had a tie between the top two candidates because my vote counted double. I'm guessing that the tie-breaker mechanic is that neither top candidate bites it, but the person with the next most votes (PF in this case).

Also, the fact that I've got a double vote is a confirmation that there are non-vanilla villager roles in the game despite the fact that we haven't come across them in our lynches. I don't blame anyone for being discrete with this information, but I personally thought it was important for us to all understand the tie-breaker so we can manage it going forward.

Again, this is only my guess on the tie-breaker, but it sure makes sense to me based on what I've shared with everyone now.

[The Jackal]

Does your vote always count double or was it a result of winning a service?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Does your vote always count double or was it a result of winning a service?

Role based, not service based.

[The Jackal]

That would make some sense. I don't know if I've seen that tie mechanic before, but adds a definite possibility.

[The Jackal]

I would say it is best to avoid ties almost always in cases of unknown tiebreaker resolves. We don't know if it stays the same, or switches, or what. Adds too much confusion.

[mckerney]

Hmm. That changes things, it's good if we can know that there was no one taking a late action to save Darth.

[mauchow]

Ouch. That makes this all the more interesting.. if that's the case.

My head is going to hurt by the end of this game.

[hoopsguy]

It could have been a duking, and if that is the case I revealed for no good reason. But I can't figure out why someone would have duked it to PackerFanatic in that spot.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, upon further reflection I think I know what happened last night and it wasn't a duke. I'm debating whether to throw out my theory now, or hold onto it until the next day phase.

why wait when yo could be offed?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I guess I didn't think that my hidden role was all that important - if this makes me more of a night target then so be it. But if I was offed tonight, then I would have been taking this info to the grave and I always advocate discussion in thread. So that is why I did it now rather than waiting until tomorrow ... I didn't want to potentially be gone and have people not understanding the tie-break (at least as I believe I understand it) going forward.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We had a tie between the top two candidates because my vote counted double. I'm guessing that the tie-breaker mechanic is that neither top candidate bites it, but the person with the next most votes (PF in this case).

Also, the fact that I've got a double vote is a confirmation that there are non-vanilla villager roles in the game despite the fact that we haven't come across them in our lynches. I don't blame anyone for being discrete with this information, but I personally thought it was important for us to all understand the tie-breaker so we can manage it going forward.

Again, this is only my guess on the tie-breaker, but it sure makes sense to me based on what I've shared with everyone now.

At least that provides some clarity as to what happened. I would've been surprised if there was a duke role available for purchase for balance reasons. Did you not realize the final tally would end in a tie or did you just not want to move your vote?

Honestly, all this stuff is probably a better discussion post-night phase anyway.

[Lathum]

hoops- Pass switched to DV with 3 minutes left and I saw you posted after that. Did you not know the vote count at that point or were you content leaving it tied?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, I guess I didn't think that my hidden role was all that important - if this makes me more of a night target then so be it. But if I was offed tonight, then I would have been taking this info to the grave and I always advocate discussion in thread. So that is why I did it now rather than waiting until tomorrow ... I didn't want to potentially be gone and have people not understanding the tie-break (at least as I believe I understand it) going forward.

so you want us to believe that you are the only person in the game that has a power not related to bidding...i have an extremely hard time believing that, and I really dont like it, considering we have no actual knowledge of what side you are on.

[hoopsguy]

On the tie last night - I had no idea which side either one of those guys was on, so I wasn't really all that invested in one person over the other on the lynch. I certainly had no idea that it would bounce to PackerFanatic, who I was more opposed to that the two leaders (just didn't understand the case against him). So, with the hindsight of knowing how it worked I would have avoided being in that position. But with what I knew last night, I was OK leaving the vote where it was.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by saldana

so you want us to believe that you are the only person in the game that has a power not related to bidding...i have an extremely hard time believing that, and I really dont like it, considering we have no actual knowledge of what side you are on.

I think it is possible others have powers and haven't revealed them yet, what would be their incentive to?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by saldana

so you want us to believe that you are the only person in the game that has a power not related to bidding...i have an extremely hard time believing that, and I really dont like it, considering we have no actual knowledge of what side you are on.

I strongly doubt I'm the only one in this position. I'm just the only one who has (as of Night 2) acknowledged having something beyond the vanilla villager.

What possible motivation can you assign for me having this power, and then coming out with this information, at this point in the game if I'm a mobster? If I believed I understood the tie mechanic as a wolf then I would make sure to engineer it to my team's advantage at every turn. But I'm coming forward with it so we can try to make collective/informed decisions the rest of the way.

[Lathum]

I don't see anything Hoops is doing particularly wolfy. Why come forward with this info? Why would a wolf have that power, I think that would be WAY overpowered for a wolf to have that ability.

I think with certain players we always look to see what angle they are shooting at, when the simplest explanation may be they are telling the truth.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I strongly doubt I'm the only one in this position. I'm just the only one who has (as of Night 2) acknowledged having something beyond the vanilla villager.

What possible motivation can you assign for me having this power, and then coming out with this information, at this point in the game if I'm a mobster? If I believed I understood the tie mechanic as a wolf then I would make sure to engineer it to my team's advantage at every turn. But I'm coming forward with it so we can try to make collective/informed decisions the rest of the way.

well the fact is, you did know you had the power...you knew you coordinated a tie last night without knowing what the result would be...that is no different than a duke pulling the trigger onto a random person without any reason to go there except to use his power.