Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Poli]

Yeah, I'd like to hear anyone's thoughts between dubb and kingfc.

For now:

UNVOTE DUBB93

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have confidence that RPI is human.

Apologies if you've already answered this, but

Why?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Apologies if you've already answered this, but

Why?

I pray to god he doesnt answer the way rpi think he would...we cant afford that much of a loss this early...god damn rpi if your right

[st.cronin]

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE DUBB93

[st.cronin]

My new thinking is along the lines of what some people have posited: There just hasn't been any real effort by anybody to move the vote OFF Rpi. I'm pretty in the dark, but ... well, less than 30 minutes to go. Could be a wild finish.

[dubb93]

Thats a big mistake St. Cronin. Barkeep has provided no evidence and already admitted to not being the seer, although after tonight it may be time to take a serious look at him.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Estimated current count
kingfc22 - dubb93, Mr. Wednesday
dubb93 - Barkeep, RPI-Fan, st. cronin
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny
McSweeny - hoopsguy, Blade6119

I believe the original vote for dubb is older than the original vote for RPI-Fan, so the latter is still on the block.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Estimated current count
kingfc22 - dubb93, Mr. Wednesday
dubb93 - Barkeep, RPI-Fan, st. cronin
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny
McSweeny - hoopsguy, Blade6119

I believe the original vote for dubb is older than the original vote for RPI-Fan, so the latter is still on the block.

i thought it was last vote that determined time, not the original vote..might be your way though

[RPI-Fan]

Guys, I don't really know how to defend myself, because I've never been in the position of a villager accused this early.

*Shurg*

I explained my reasoning, possibly cost us the seer, and still might get killed.

[Mr. Wednesday]

The last one to get their first vote. The order in which the first vote for each was recorded is currently kingfc22, dubb, RPI-Fan (and I don't believe either of the original voters for the first two have wavered). I had thought there was some question about kingfc22, but dubb actually voted kingfc22 prior to RPI-Fan (who later rescinded that vote).

[Blade6119]

Unless someone talks me out of it i really think i want to toss my vote to RPI to ensure he dies...anyone have a sure reason on dubb?

[Raiders Army]

Wow. A lot happened. Both of the guys that I look at being human switched their votes from RPI. I'm tempted to do the same, but I'm going with my gut on this one. I don't think RPI provided a good enough excuse for his actions, so I'm sticking with it for better or worse.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Unless someone talks me out of it i really think i want to toss my vote to RPI to ensure he dies...anyone have a sure reason on dubb?

I don't have a good read on *anybody.*

[Raiders Army]

Dola, I really don't think dubb is a wolf. I'd like to think that between dubb and kingfc one is a wolf but everything seems upside down at this point.

[Blade6119]

If rpi is a wolf, i say look at like ardent and those...if he isnt, raiders and me i guess

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Unless someone talks me out of it i really think i want to toss my vote to RPI to ensure he dies...anyone have a sure reason on dubb?

Ummm... I'm not a wolf, and he might be. What exactly have I done to warrant me being called a wolf?

I posted my thoughts freely because I thought we had a good chance of nagging Pass as a wolf on day 1. I then edited a post or two b/c I made spelling errors that I didn't (bad form, I know, but Im' still relatively new).

Please cut me some slack -- I tried a play that I don't think that was all that bad of an idea, now it's going to get me lynched and Barkeep killed and ew'lll lose our seer.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Unless someone talks me out of it i really think i want to toss my vote to RPI to ensure he dies...anyone have a sure reason on dubb?

This was my reasoning why dubb probably isn't a wolf to kingfc22:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay.

This is the only way that I see him being a wolf and his calling you out being a strategy:

12 of us left. 2 villagers died and 1 wolf. The cursed was hit last night, so I'd guess there are at least two wolves, probably three.

9-3 villagers today. If they wipe out another villager today, it would be 8-3 villagers. Tonight would bring it to 7-3. Tomorrow's lynch would go to 6-3 and the night kill would bring it to 5-3.

If dubb is a wolf, that play is way too early in the game to sacrifice himself. The only possible scenario is that (gasp) there are four wolves out there and this will be the endgame gambit for them.

There is another problem with this scenario: it's predicated that RPI is a villager...which I highly doubt at this point.

I just don't follow your logic in thinking he's a wolf just by calling you out. The wolves gain nothing at this point in the game unless RPI is a villager and there are four of them.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think the case against RPI-Fan is all that strong. Yes, he was wrong (very wrong) in arguing against Pass, but (at risk of introducing undo meta-discussion to the table) I also don't think his play there was inconsistent with the past. That said, I don't think the case against anybody else is all that strong either. I'd say we would like to have more out of the SnDvls lynching, but a day after is usually a little too early to figure out more than the obvious part (that we have a measure of trust in st. cronin).

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

I posted my thoughts freely because I thought we had a good chance of nagging Pass as a wolf on day 1. I then edited a post or two b/c I made spelling errors that I didn't (bad form, I know, but Im' still relatively new).

While there's time to switch...

Why would you push so hard then on day 1 if you didn't know for sure he was a wolf? That is the only way I would push that hard, or unless I was about 90% sure. I think if you explained that, it could clear you in some eyes.

Right now, I'm leaning towards kingfc22...

[Poli]

VOTE KINGFC22.

At this point, I'm starting to believe dubb, I don't know if that's good or not.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

VOTE KINGFC22.

At this point, I'm starting to believe dubb, I don't know if that's good or not.

If you do that, you have to unvote dubb

[Blade6119]

or did you already..im soo lost

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

If you do that, you have to unvote dubb

I did, bud.

[Mr. Wednesday]

ardent unvoted him already, I think. Backtrack to my previous estimated vote total to confirm it.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

or did you already..im soo lost

You're not the only one lost.

I've been hoping to hear from hoops on his thoughts.

[Raiders Army]

Alright...I'm gone for a bit. I guess I won't change my vote, and I feel somewhat comfortable with it. Good luck to us.

[Blade6119]

one minute left...i want to switch, but im afraid now....i swear to god RPI and ardent..if you two are bad i will hate you bastards for ever!

[dubb93]

UVOTE KINGFC22

VOTE RPI-FAN

[dubb93]

had no choice, i feel both are wolves and I believe my head was on the block. Was wanting someone to switch to King tho.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by dubb93

UVOTE KINGFC22

VOTE RPI-FAN

Doesnt count i dont think...but according to wednesday rpi is dead anyways

[dubb93]

it was in right at 9:00, who knows if it will count.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Still an hour to go.

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

I'm moving the vote deadline to 9 PM EST. But even them I'm not sure if I can make it, I've been out partying all night.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Still an hour to go.

If anyone is willing to change to King, I'll go back.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Still an hour to go.

CAN SOMEONE EXPLAIN BLOODY TIMEZONES TO ME??? WHAT TIME IS ON THE EAST COAST???

[Mr. Wednesday]

It is currently 8:04 PM EST.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Oh, hey, you're in AZ. We stop going through that in IN next April, unfortunately.

[Blade6119]

ok, great...another hour for me to analyze every situation and still be at square one

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Oh, hey, you're in AZ. We stop going through that in IN next April, unfortunately.

You should be honored to be allowed into such a heavenly place...maybe ill call the minutemen and tell them your an illegal

[dubb93]

Well, I'll open things back up a bit...

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE KINGFC22

But if I have to switch back again to preserve myself I will. It will not help the villagers if I die. I am a villager. I'm doing this b/c I feel strongly about KingFC being a wolf, but I also do about RPI. This way it allows us another hour to pool our thoughts with me, King, and RPI all on even footing.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Estimated current count
kingfc22 - dubb93, Mr. Wednesday, ardent enthusiast
dubb93 - Barkeep, RPI-Fan, st. cronin
RPI-Fan - kingfc22, Raiders Army, McSweeny
McSweeny - hoopsguy, Blade6119

The order in which the first vote for each was recorded is currently either
kingfc22, dubb, RPI-Fan (if dubb's initial vote for kingfc22 sets the counter, despite later retraction and reinstatement), or
dubb, RPI-Fan, kingfc22 (if it goes by the order of the tallied votes, not the initially cast votes)

This is important now, because the tiebreaker between RPI-Fan and kingfc22 comes down to it. Either way, dubb will win any tie until and unless barkeep changes his vote (and possibly even if that happens, see above).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, and McSweeny slots in between RPI-Fan and kingfc22 in the latter scenario, or on the end in the first scenario.

[Blade6119]

Im still very loose on my vote...ill swing a certain way if i see a good argument, but right now its a lot of cirumstance and if it came down to it id switch to rpi...and may if nothing happens

[Blade6119]

well, hoops is back...lets hear what hes got to say

[RPI-Fan]

Alright... I'm going to preserve myself here even though I suspect dubb93 might be a wolf... I KNOW that if I save myself I at least eliminate the possiblity of one villager (me) getting lynched.

UNVOTE DUBB93

VOTE KINGFC22

[RPI-Fan]

Check that: I'm going to TRY to preserve myself.

[hoopsguy]

Catching up on my reading, will post in next couple of minutes with thoughts.

[hoopsguy]

If I'm reading the votes correctly it looks like King has a two-vote lead?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I'm reading the votes correctly it looks like King has a two-vote lead?

One vote lead i though...one vote lead over dubb and two over rpi

[Mr. Wednesday]

I have it at a one vote lead (4-3-2-2) subject to tiebreakers.

[dubb93]

I'm going to throw a scenario out there that may seem a little crazy but reading back through this may make some sense...

RPI COULD be the cunning wolf. That is why some people came in late and moved for a bandwagon against me. Even IF RPI was lynched, he looks like a villager....this would implicate Barkeep and Ardent.

Ardent came in blindly following RPI, then after we all caught on, backed off his vote. Like Blade said earlier, he could very easily be the converted.

Barkeep has had it out for me since day 1, but when RPI came in, he implied Barkeep was the seer....Barkeep sorta played along, saying "I have confidence that RPI is human." This caused some people to swap votes, etc. But Barkeep did come up short of claiming he was the seer. Why? He could have been outted easily, identified as a wolf, and voted out.

I have a feeling looking back on the bandwagon on me, that this may be the way to go. The only thing I fear, is that if I vote RPI, he turns out to be the cunning and it takes another round to prove or disprove my theory. Anyone find this possible?