Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That said...I'm not saying you should treat me with kid gloves or anything! I think you should believe me, as long as no one else claims to be the herbalist! If someone does claim it, there's a decision to be made. But don't let the wolves get the herbalist without showing themselves!

Post #206. Bolded part mine. I find it highly disconcerting that he says this since he looks like he's going to be lynched at that point. I may be looking for something out of nothing though.

I have to take my daughter to karate and then I'm pretty much out for the night. Good luck everyone. I have a really bad feeling that maybe RPI and Pass are villagers and the wolves are just laughing right now.

That being said, I agree with McSweeny's earlier logic of Pass is pretty much useless to us now as a herbalist if it's true, so I'm sticking with that.

[Raiders Army]

Dola, forgot to bold:

But don't let the wolves get the herbalist without showing themselves!

[Poli]

Checking in, man there's a lot to read and I simply don't have the time to read it while here on my roomie's pc. Hopefully, cross your fingers, I'll have my pc up later today.

[pennywisesb]

Well, from past experiences in games, RPI is always pushing really hard at the beginning of games with absolutely no evidence at all. I think thats just the way he plays. I think at this point that one of the two (Pass and RPI) is probably a wolf, but I'm kinda with RA on this one in thinking it'd be alittle ridiculous to draw this much attention on himself if he were a wolf (RPI). I'm really confused at this point.

[SnDvls]

so many opinins. I think we're barking up the wrong tree with both Pass & RPI. Like has been said before the wolves are just loving this right now. Being a past baddie, I know when stuff like this happened we just sat back and watched. My gut says they're both good. I have to stick w/ SirFozzie only because he hasn't posted much after acussing me of the same.

I'm out for the night. Let's hope we get a wolf and my gut is wrong on this one.

[Barkeep49]

I agree with SnDVls.

I believe Pass. Based on what I've seen of his gameplay this is consistent with how he's played. I also think that having him around for a Vizzini's Cup scenerio with the wolves is good for the villagers. I support his move.

I also believe that RPI is innocent. I think he's an aggressive player and truly believes Pass is guilty.

And so I'm going to vote for neither. That said I don't really have a good feel for anyone else. However, I think it's MORE of a mistake to vote for someone who I am confident about being good. Looking around there's only one other person with votes at this point so that's what I'm doing. I don't think I'm right, but I feel better about it than RPI and Pass.

UNVOTE PASSACAGALIA

VOTE MCSWEENY

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

so many opinins. I think we're barking up the wrong tree with both Pass & RPI. Like has been said before the wolves are just loving this right now. Being a past baddie, I know when stuff like this happened we just sat back and watched. My gut says they're both good. I have to stick w/ SirFozzie only because he hasn't posted much after acussing me of the same.

I'm out for the night. Let's hope we get a wolf and my gut is wrong on this one.

sold

UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA


VOTE SIRFOZZIE

[McSweeny]

doesn't Fozzie work all night? could that be why he's been so silent?

[Barkeep49]

Anyone have a vote count? I'm not really sold on McSweeny and if there looks like a different viable third contender for votes emerging I'd like to through my vote that away.

[Blade6119]

Im heading out and will be gone until about an hour after vote deadline...im sticking on pass, best of luck to the group in a suddenly wide open vote

[pennywisesb]

UNVOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIEST

At this point my vote was worthless. I'm going to wait until more info is brought forth at this point before casting a vote. Personally, I don't think Pass would pretend to be the herbalist if he really wasn't....

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Dola, forgot to bold:

But don't let the wolves get the herbalist without showing themselves!

I'm not sure what's so disconcerting about this. I try to present things objectively, as I think that will help my case. However, in that case, I spoke from my viewpoint, as the herbalist. If I'm not going to be believed, at least let me not be believed by having someone else say they're the herbalist!

[st.cronin]

rule clarification

If a wolf votes, his vote will not count, right? So we can at least somewhat logically reverse-vote count to figure out who may or may not be a wolf? Is that how this works?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

rule clarification

If a wolf votes, his vote will not count, right? So we can at least somewhat logically reverse-vote count to figure out who may or may not be a wolf? Is that how this works?

Wolf votes count. If they didn't count, it would be easier to find out who's a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Here's my vote count:

SNDVLS -- SirFozzie
Pennywiseb -- ardent
PASSACAGLIA -- RPI, RA, Blade
McSweeny -- kingfc22, dubb, Barkeep
RPI-FAN -- MrW, Sack, Pass
SirFozzie -- st.cronin

Still anyone's lynching.

EDITED because Blade voted me as just PASS, not PASSACAGLIA, and I had a separate row for that. Just in case I have the secret 'lawyer' role, who can nitpick his way out of a lynching!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

so we've got a handfull of guys trying to deflect votes from Pass and some guys trying to deflect votes from RPI.

i don't know what the hell is really going on

That's the fun of werewolf!

[dubb93]

Well, I did tend to believe Pass with his first reveal, although painting a scenario where he is a wolf, and a brilliant one at that here:

Option B -- I'm a wolf, trying to out the herbalist. Not a bad ploy, since I was already on the block before this, and I might as well try to get something out of it. And I went for a mild target -- I mean, I know the seer won't speak up if I claim I'm the seer.

Why would Pass even present that argument? Its something I've NEVER done when I've been on the block, I always deny, deny, deny. I never admit to seeing where the other camp is coming from, but that is exactly what Pass did here, and he even admitted the herbalist is a mild target.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I firmly believe that RPI is innocent. There is no way a wolf would push this hard on day one. There is no point to it. If Pass is innocent RPI is pretty well dead, and if RPI was a wolf he would know if Pass was a wolf or not. I can't even think of a way where RPI is a wolf, although.....

McSweeny has been very fishy, jumping his vote all around and changing his mind. Appears he tried to jump on RPI's side and then when RPI's side became the losing side he switched his vote to him. Mcsweeny has been acting crazy today and my vote isn't going to be changed.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

so if Pass does get lynched tonight and turns out to be the herbalist, that means that RPI will be following him to the gallows tomorrow. One of the two will turn out to be a wolf right?

Wrong, there is just as good of a chance that both are innocent than there are that 1 is the wolf. If Pass turns out to be the herbalist then RPI is innocent. He's a vetern, and wouldn't be stupid enough to push this hard to lynch an "outted" herbalist on day 1 if he were a wolf. Your thought process has been all over today, passing blame from person to person depending on the bandwagon.

[McSweeny]

so when is the deadline?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

UNVOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIEST

At this point my vote was worthless. I'm going to wait until more info is brought forth at this point before casting a vote. Personally, I don't think Pass would pretend to be the herbalist if he really wasn't....

You, sir, are a gentleman. That said, I'm at least temporarily online here on my computer. I don't know much about routers, but I assume I'm going to need one or something. I suppose I should just call Comcast and tell them to hook me up.

[dubb93]

8:07 here right now, he said the deadline was 9, although I'm not real sure what time zone we are on now, or what time zone the deadline was based on.

[Passacaglia]

He said 9 eastern. So we've got less than an hour.

[McSweeny]

ok so it looks like it's going to be Passacaglia, RPI, or myself

-I have no idea if Pass or RPI is a wolf, but i'd like to think that one of them is a wolf.
-I know i'm not a wolf and i was just trying to protect myself earlier this evening when it looked like i had my neck in the noose. It looks like that respite was only temporary...
-RPI came on too strong with his accusations
-Pass claimed to be the herbalist

is this all we have to go on? is it coin-flip time?

[hoopsguy]

I thought I would have a little time between work and heading out tonight to catch up on the action but the weather has slammed that window shut. Good luck to everyone tonight/tomorrow. I hope to be around before the deadline and in time to see where today's actions have taken us.

[Poli]

This weather here in Chicago sucks.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

so many opinins. I think we're barking up the wrong tree with both Pass & RPI. Like has been said before the wolves are just loving this right now. Being a past baddie, I know when stuff like this happened we just sat back and watched. My gut says they're both good. I have to stick w/ SirFozzie only because he hasn't posted much after acussing me of the same.

I'm out for the night. Let's hope we get a wolf and my gut is wrong on this one.

*laughs* I was asleep. I had my drug test today for my new job.. I go to work, I come home, then go to the oral surgeon.

But if it makes you feel better..

UNVOTE SNDVLS

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

Although I do note that RPI is pushing way strong here. Perhaps a wolf v wolf fight (one of them is the cunning wolf?) that conclusively "Clears" one in our eyes, to have the Cunning Wolf hide in our midst.

[Blade6119]

So we still have another hour becuase i just got back?...i hate how Phoenix switches time zones, i never know my relation to east coast time

[SirFozzie]

Blade: It's 8:30 here on the east coast.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Although I do note that RPI is pushing way strong here. Perhaps a wolf v wolf fight (one of them is the cunning wolf?) that conclusively "Clears" one in our eyes, to have the Cunning Wolf hide in our midst.

I worry about this too, but the seer should clear that up eventually...my bet is one wolf is in the heat of the argument and and one has no one looking at him...the other one or two are making minor comments here or there...i still say take a shot on pass since this whole situation has been iffy

PING NEON: Does the cunning wolf appear to the seer as a villager too or just post mortem??

Also, people have said 4 wolves, but i feel strongly its no more then 3 right now...The cursed trait could add to their numbers, and neon said their could be more then one cursed indivdiual

[RPI-Fan]

The reason I'm "pushing this hard" is because it's the first time we have anything near concrete evidence of a wolf on Day 1. This is a rare opportunity and we MUST carpe diem.

Given the thought of most people that there's a 50/50 shot Pass is a wolf, that is about a 40-45% better chance than we ever have on Day 1!!!

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

He's done this before and ended up being a wolf, I think. Modus operandi?

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY

VOTE RPI-FAN

Nope. The one time I was a wolf I played the exact OPPOSITE way -- nobody ever brought up my name in the wolf discussion until at least one week into the game!

The only other game I ever played, I was certainly an agressive villager, and I like to think that near the end it ended up with us having pretty much total domination over the wolves before they forfeited.

[RPI-Fan]

Alright, it's a shame I have to post a "defense", but I guess I might as well:

Do you think I would call Pass's play "dumb" to claim herbalist (whether or not he actually is) and then go around screaming bloody murder that he's the wolf? The ONLY sense in doing so, as someone mentioned, is in some kind of wolf-wolf tandem play, and that simply isn't the case here. I'm not that smart -- I just call it like I see it, and right now I see that Pass has a very good chance of being the wolf.

[Blade6119]

By my count pass has 4 and mc and rpi have 3...whatever happens we cant have a tie, as the duke has to decide and in the past neon reveals who the duke is to break the tie...i cant stress no matter who it is, we must decide on someone...no tie

[Passacaglia]

Okay. I'll back off RPI-Fan for a while.

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE MCSWEENY

[McSweeny]

now it looks like a two horse race

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Okay. I'll back off RPI-Fan for a while.

UNVOTE RPI-FAN

VOTE MCSWEENY

LOL, your not doing it to back off rpi...your doing it to create a fucking tie THE EXACT POST AFTER I SAY WE CANT HAVE A TIE!!!!....

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

now it looks like a two horse race

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

dola, thank you for breaking the tie....lol, 5 minutes left...anyone else want to screw with my heart?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

LOL, your not doing it to back off rpi...your doing it to create a fucking tie THE EXACT POST AFTER I SAY WE CANT HAVE A TIE!!!!....

I agree it's a strategic wolf play, but in his defense his vote was changed exactly at the same time as your post.

I do agree with you that a tie would not be good here.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

...anyone else want to screw with my heart?

i want to see other people

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

i want to see other people

FINE!! i was going to dump your ass tomorrow anyways!!

i had it all planned

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

What about the possibility of not lynching anyone on Day 1?

Haven't really let the consequences run through my mind, but I'm not seeing tons of negatives to it, necessarily.

i do find it odd, of course i see it post deadline when looking over the thread, that he first pushed for no lynch....then goes over kill to lynch the herbalist(i havent seen results, so dont know if he is or isnt)...seems really odd now that i see both of those pieces...i think i might have made the wrong call, dont know....i hate day 1

[McSweeny]

well that's that

i barely survived

[Blade6119]

During the Day Phase, everyone votes to lynch one player. In case of a tie, the player who got his first vote last will be lynched.

I didn't include that in the list of common Day 1 concepts because it didn't apply to this one. There are some games that require a certain number of votes to lynch someone, but it sounds like this one would invoke a lynch even if there was a 1-1 tie with everyone else abstaining.

With that in mind, not voting is generally bad form. Those voting patterns are important information later in the game when running "villager or wolf" scenarios.

My duke theory was also wrong...that is how a tie is decided per the rules...thank you to hoops for catching that back on page 2

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

i do find it odd, of course i see it post deadline when looking over the thread, that he first pushed for no lynch....then goes over kill to lynch the herbalist(i havent seen results, so dont know if he is or isnt)...seems really odd now that i see both of those pieces...i think i might have made the wrong call, dont know....i hate day 1

I wasn't "pushing" for no lynch... it was something I hadn't ever seen discussed in a WW game before (granted, I've only played in and even read just a handful of them), and thought it was worth putting on the table.

And if you made the wrong call, it's because it was villager vs. villager... I'm not a wolf.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Late villager checking in.

havent heared anything from king...something to watch for in the next few rounds

NOTE: Im reviewing all the pages and posting my thoughts

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

That's why I figure there has to be four wolves, Foz.

Because in the event that two werewolves were paired as lovers and one was lynched, the other would die. With two wolves, that ends the game instantly, and with three, that leaves only one. It would be a significant setback for them.

So I gotta figure we're dealing with probably four. That way if the unexpected does happen, there's still two wolves for us to root out.

I still say we have 3, due to the cursed trait which at least one if not more villagers have...its like the dons son, could be 4-5 if they get them, but right now id bet on 3

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm bummed to see that there hasn't been any real conversation up to this point. I realize that first day sucks, but if we don't get any kind of conversation going then we end up 100% random (instead of 80-90% random, maybe?) on our lynch selection. Which makes it easier to hide a vote - huge advantage to wolves.

I'm hoping to be back online later this afternoon for a decent block of time prior to the vote.

As a general note, I know that several of us (me included) posted about availability issues for today and onwards. I would be cautious as the game moves on if people continue to have last-minute issues preventing them from contributing to the conversation. There have been several cases of wolves trying to keep a low-profile by posting about their real life commitments keeping them from contributing as much as they might like. This isn't meant to try and weed out the people who have activities beyond our message board, but make sure to hold people accountable for their votes (or lack thereof) throughout the game. Villagers generally want to play an active role in their team winning, not let the other villagers figure it out for them.

Ill echo this as its a good thought...just because someone says they have to go to X place at Y time, doesnt mean they arent a wolf just keeping a low profile

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

I think Blade's post asking Neon for clarifications is very suspicious, but I don't want to spread the votes around right now. Whether or not he's a wolf, I like his reasoning on his vote.

Vote Passacaglia

Care to elaborate on what you found suspicious about it(yes, im asking you to draw up reasons why im bad)...id be interested in why my tryign to better understand a new role is fishy?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is the next thought - if someone else is the herbalist should they come forward and condemn Pass directly or try to be subtle about it? I think a one-to-one trade is probably worth it, but it would be even better to succeed in guiding the group to hang the fake herbalist while maintaining their secrecy. I think this would be very hard to do but would stand up and applaud at the end of the game if someone does pull that off.

I dont love hoops quietly pushing to get the real herbalist out of the shadows(if pass wasnt it)...could be nothing, but hoops is very smart and this would be a subtle way to push it that way

[SirFozzie]

My quick thoughts: No matter what happens, I think we need the seer to check out RPI tonight. UNLESS Neon states that the seer cannot detect the Cunning Wolf.