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Old 11-08-2022, 12:39 PM   #1151
Brian Swartz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostEcon
I find all the "Alabama dynasty is dead" takes are weird. Feels like everyone just wants to be first on it.

Interestingly I feel like it's the other way around. Like this has been a few years coming and it's finally come to fruition. They've had harder and harder times in their road games, overall haven't been as dominant, etc.

It's two really close games they lost ... but they also barely escaped Texas. There was only half of the third quarter that Texas A&M wasn't within a touchdown. Neither of those are elite teams. So it's not 'they had two close games and lost both of them' but 'they had four close games and lost half of them'.

In terms of 'the new Alabama', I detest that language whatever it's applied to. Georgia isn't the new Alabama, they never will be, but if you ask who is the best program in the country right now, it's Georgia. If they win again this year and don't fall flat next year, they are a dynasty. Even if they don't win the title this year I think you'd be hard pressed to say anyone else is better than them overall in the current state of the sport. Alabama and Clemson both seem to be on the decline, the Ryan Day version of Ohio State doesn't appear - at least so far - to be strong enough to challenge them, or anyone out of the Big 12/Pac 12 etc. They've been good-to-great every year since 2017.

Rather than 'the new Alabama' I'd call them 'the first Georgia'. As in, the version of Georgia that is the best in the land, for however long that lasts.

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Old 11-08-2022, 12:52 PM   #1152
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For Alabama, the true Saban dynasty is reliant on having a top tier offensive coordinator. Sarkisian and Kiffin were just home run hires that made Alabama near invincible. O'Brien is nowhere near that tier. Alabama's offense has become reliant on Young's ability to improvise and that's just not a consistent formula for success against good competition.

The most concerning thing for Alabama might be their reliance on transfers for their best offensive threats. It doesn't seem sustainable to pull a Gibbs or Jameson Williams every year.
Ehh, it seems like Clemson, then Alabama, now Ohio State also hit on an insane amount of WR talent at once. I don't think BOB would do any worse than those two if he had Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, Smith, Metchie and Jameson Williams. Having 2 WR's that can't be covered 1v1 makes anyone look good (shoot, Clemson's offense with Lawrence was basically RPO's and throwing jump balls on the boundary to WR's who'd win most of the time), and I think Ja'Corey Brooks is that good but Burton and the rest aren't.

Plus they put up 49 at Tennessee and 31 at LSU in the losses (albeit 24 in regulation in the latter) so it seems aggressive to blame the OC for at least the first of those losses.
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Old 11-08-2022, 01:04 PM   #1153
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Originally Posted by Ghost Econ View Post
I find all the "Alabama dynasty is dead" takes are weird. Feels like everyone just wants to be first on it.

They lost on a last second field goal after botching a 2 minute warning on the road to a maybe playoff team.

They lost on a 2 point conversion in OT on the road at night in LSU to a team probably going to the SEC championship.

Yeah, they don't normally lose 2 of these in a year, but it's not like these are world ending losses.

Counterpoint: Those two teams have considerably less talent than Alabama and have no business hanging with them. You can say the same for Texas and Texas A&M who they just squeaked by.

I guess the question is that if you think schools like Tennessee and LSU can close the talent gap over the years, is Alabama going to keep their run going? We've seen Georgia overtake Alabama when they closed that gap.

I don't think you'll be seeing 7-5 teams or anything, but I do think these 2-loss seasons might become more of the norm and their stranglehold in the SEC might be coming to an end. There have been some considerable in-game coaching upgrades in that conference over the years and that's not Saban's strong suit.
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Old 11-08-2022, 01:14 PM   #1154
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
Interestingly I feel like it's the other way around. Like this has been a few years coming and it's finally come to fruition. They've had harder and harder times in their road games, overall haven't been as dominant, etc.

It's two really close games they lost ... but they also barely escaped Texas. There was only half of the third quarter that Texas A&M wasn't within a touchdown. Neither of those are elite teams. So it's not 'they had two close games and lost both of them' but 'they had four close games and lost half of them'.

In terms of 'the new Alabama', I detest that language whatever it's applied to. Georgia isn't the new Alabama, they never will be, but if you ask who is the best program in the country right now, it's Georgia. If they win again this year and don't fall flat next year, they are a dynasty. Even if they don't win the title this year I think you'd be hard pressed to say anyone else is better than them overall in the current state of the sport. Alabama and Clemson both seem to be on the decline, the Ryan Day version of Ohio State doesn't appear - at least so far - to be strong enough to challenge them, or anyone out of the Big 12/Pac 12 etc. They've been good-to-great every year since 2017.

Rather than 'the new Alabama' I'd call them 'the first Georgia'. As in, the version of Georgia that is the best in the land, for however long that lasts.

I agree with all of this. With an additional caveat that it's probably unrealistic to expect /any/ program to be as good as Alabama has been the last 15 years - there isn't always one of those. It was historically good and is appropriately mentioned with the best dynasties in college football history.

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Old 11-08-2022, 01:31 PM   #1155
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Ehh, it seems like Clemson, then Alabama, now Ohio State also hit on an insane amount of WR talent at once. I don't think BOB would do any worse than those two if he had Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, Smith, Metchie and Jameson Williams. Having 2 WR's that can't be covered 1v1 makes anyone look good (shoot, Clemson's offense with Lawrence was basically RPO's and throwing jump balls on the boundary to WR's who'd win most of the time), and I think Ja'Corey Brooks is that good but Burton and the rest aren't.

Plus they put up 49 at Tennessee and 31 at LSU in the losses (albeit 24 in regulation in the latter) so it seems aggressive to blame the OC for at least the first of those losses.

Your first paragraph is related to my point that there seems to be issues with either talent identification or development offensively.

I also give a lot of credit for Alabama's scoring to Young. The guy has been forced to make insane plays outside the scope of the offense to get to that scoring level. Sometimes that improvisation works against them though, like the INT in the end zone last week.

I just don't rate O'Brien anywhere near the other two. He's not elite like the previous 2 OCs. He might be the better head coach between the three though.
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Old 11-08-2022, 01:43 PM   #1156
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I don't think you'll be seeing 7-5 teams or anything, but I do think these 2-loss seasons might become more of the norm and their stranglehold in the SEC might be coming to an end. There have been some considerable in-game coaching upgrades in that conference over the years and that's not Saban's strong suit.

Which perfectly dovetails with doing just enough in most years to get into a 12 team playoff. Alabama ain't going anywhere - at least not until Saban retires and we see whether the next coach can keep the momentum.
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:27 PM   #1157
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Looks about right to me. Arguably, TN could have fallen a little more.

Georgia claims top spot in CFP's rankings after emphatic win
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Georgia, OSU, Michigan, TCU latest CFP top four

Georgia, the defending national champion, took over the top spot in the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings released on ESPN Tuesday night, after the Bulldogs' impressive 27-13 win over previous No. 1 Tennessee last weekend.
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:42 PM   #1158
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Tennessee didn't get beat as bad by Georgia as Oregon did. Looks about right.

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Old 11-08-2022, 06:47 PM   #1159
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First game, Oregon wasn't #1, and didn't read much about Oregon expecting to beat GA. TN clearly underperformed expectations, and it was a bad whupping after 1Q.
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:52 PM   #1160
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Tennessee wasn't favored, either and it was a Georgia home game. Oregon was a neutral site game (given a favorable one to Georgia) and they were totally destroyed in that game. Tennessee also has the 2nd strongest SOS of all teams. It really isn't even close.

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Old 11-08-2022, 06:54 PM   #1161
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It is perfectly lined up for 1 or 2 SEC teams a B1G team and ACC or PAC12 OR Big 12 for the last spot.
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Old 11-08-2022, 06:58 PM   #1162
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This one lines up for some really good TV ratings as well.
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:03 PM   #1163
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I think this week's rankings are much better than last week's.

On Tennessee/Oregon, I never understand people putting much weight on a week 1 game. Teams are totally different by mid-season, never mind towards the end of the year, compared to the start of the year. It's the most unrepresentative game of how good a team is by a wide margin.
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:03 PM   #1164
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The thing Tennessee has to worry about is a letdown game. It is pretty common for a team to have a disappointing loss and then have an even greater disappointment the next week. Mizzou or even South Carolina might sneak up on them. If they win out, they definitely have a great chance to make the playoffs.

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Old 11-08-2022, 07:03 PM   #1165
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Boo Corrigan still has a stick up his ass lol
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:09 PM   #1166
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Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
I think this week's rankings are much better than last week's.

On Tennessee/Oregon, I never understand people putting much weight on a week 1 game. Teams are totally different by mid-season, never mind towards the end of the year, compared to the start of the year. It's the most unrepresentative game of how good a team is by a wide margin.

I agree. Especially considering it was the first game with a new coach and new QB.
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:13 PM   #1167
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So are there other games we should ignore? We going to throw out LSU's loss to FSU. New coach and all. Are we considering LSU a one loss team now? Would that mean winning the SEC championship puts them in?


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Old 11-08-2022, 07:15 PM   #1168
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So are there other games we should ignore? We going to throw out LSU's loss to FSU. New coach and all. Are we considering LSU a one loss team now? Would that mean winning the SEC championship puts them in?


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I wouldn't say ignore, just one factor of many to consider.
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:16 PM   #1169
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I didn't say ignore. Not all losses are the same, not all wins are the same. I wouldn't throw out the Florida State loss for LSU. I would count it as being a lot less relevant than if it happened two months into the season.
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Old 11-08-2022, 07:20 PM   #1170
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I agree you weight it different. But even if you give it like a .5 weight, it was still a uncompetitive defeat. And Tennessee has a much better SOS, and bigger wins. Then just do the "what if?" test. Do you think Oregon would have done better than Tennessee playing Georgia last week? I really don't.

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Old 11-08-2022, 07:43 PM   #1171
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Looking forward, Oregon does have a chance to maybe catch up to Tennessee on SOS. They have two ranked opponents ahead. Still, Tennessee will have beaten two teams in the top ten (and those teams are likely to stay in the top ten), and Orgeon only one.
If Tennessee wins out strong, they likely get in. If Oregon wins out strong, then there will be debate.
I see really the only fly in either of their ointments is if Ohio State loses to Michigan. Then OSU might have an argument over them both (depending on the type of loss).
Of course, they all could lose another game and throw everything topsy-turvy.

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Old 11-08-2022, 07:53 PM   #1172
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I think what would happen then is the committee would honor their long-standing commitment that conference championships matter by putting in Tennessee instead of Oregon.

Sarcasm aside, I think Tennessee should be ahead of Oregon at this point. It's a lot closer if Oregon wins the Pac 12 though. In that situation, I would put them ahead.
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Old 11-08-2022, 08:52 PM   #1173
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Just making it up as they go.

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Old 11-09-2022, 02:40 PM   #1174
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Texas has a problem finishing games, and TCU has a problem starting out slow. So I'm predicting a 49-0 lead for Texas at halftime, then TCU scoring 49 straight in the second half to send the game to OT.
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Old 11-09-2022, 03:57 PM   #1175
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Sad news for Coastal Carolina-QB Grayson McCall out 3-6 weeks with an ankle injury
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Old 11-09-2022, 10:22 PM   #1176
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This kinda fits with something from the previous ranking, I forget the exact phrasing but it was something about the explosive nature of the Ohio State offense.

Seems to clearly suggest that the committee feels like a team who has the ability to score a lot has a better shot against a top opponent than a team who has a strong defense.
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Old 11-10-2022, 08:15 AM   #1177
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They've been making it up as they go since the beginning. Remember when FSU was undefeated in Jameis' second season and they kept pulling wins out of their ass, the committee came up with a stat about lead time to drop FSU, then the next year, Clemson or some other team did the exact same thing and the committee promoted them for being resilient or some shit.

It's all just a fancy cover for the eye test and filling an hour of TV time and endless hours of talk radio. The committee doesn't matter until the last ranking, and trying to make sense of what they are doing now or the inconsistencies week to week or with the final ranking is a fool's game. The more people ignore this stupid shit, the better.
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Old 11-11-2022, 02:01 PM   #1178
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This kinda fits with something from the previous ranking, I forget the exact phrasing but it was something about the explosive nature of the Ohio State offense.

Seems to clearly suggest that the committee feels like a team who has the ability to score a lot has a better shot against a top opponent than a team who has a strong defense.

I get it, but that doesn't really explain the USC vs UCLA rankings. UCLA has a better offense than USC does, with two top 25 wins. While USC has...none.
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Old 11-11-2022, 02:26 PM   #1179
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The old Tennyson adage doesn't hold true in college football: it is better to have never challenged at all than to have challenged and lost.

But UCLA has one top win. They beat Utah at home. USC's loss was to Utah on the road, by one point. UCLA's loss was convincing, to an Oregon team that has looked very good except in a rather convincing loss at Georgia about 100 years ago.

So the entire Pac 12 is kind of in one lump, waiting to be settled. Right now, it's anticipated that USC and Oregon, who don't play during the regular season, will meet in the conference championship. But next week USC travels all the way to UCLA. If UCLA wins, easy shuffle. The big problem is what happens if Utah travels to Oregon next week and wins. At that point, the conference rests its hopes on the USC/UCLA winner.

Like most of this playoff dance, things get settled when teams play each other. The albatross in the room is conference championships and lucky losers that don't play in them - a problem the Pac 12 and Big 12 have solved, for now.
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Old 11-12-2022, 11:38 AM   #1180
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Arkansas looks game in Fayetteville. I was wondering about this game after LSU's emotional win last week and Arkansas poor performance.
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Old 11-12-2022, 12:06 PM   #1181
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Crazy start in Pitt-UVA game. First two plays for UVA ended up as Pick-6. Pitt was up 14-0 only 16 seconds into the game and was never on offense.

Anyone recall 2 pick 6s to open a game?
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Old 11-12-2022, 12:12 PM   #1182
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Arkansas looks game in Fayetteville. I was wondering about this game after LSU's emotional win last week and Arkansas poor performance.

Dunno. Our defense is going to have to help out big time ... and they are NOT known to do that.

Our offense is sputtering. Our QB2 needs to learn he can't take off and run all the time.

I agree on keeping our QB1 out this week. He needs to rest up for the remaining 2 games.
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Old 11-12-2022, 12:56 PM   #1183
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Dunno. Our defense is going to have to help out big time ... and they are NOT known to do that.

Our offense is sputtering. Our QB2 needs to learn he can't take off and run all the time.

I agree on keeping our QB1 out this week. He needs to rest up for the remaining 2 games.

Yeah, I don't think he's going to give them enough on offense today. It's a shame Jefferson is out, I think LSU will wear down that defense this half.
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Old 11-12-2022, 01:34 PM   #1184
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QB3 is giving me a little hope!

Just scored a TD with a sweet, sweet throw. 3pt game with 13 min left.
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Old 11-12-2022, 01:37 PM   #1185
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Coastal Carolina takes on Sun Belt newcomer Southern Mississippi for the first time tonight 7:30 pm on ESPN2.



No idea what to expect from this game-team we haven't faced before and out star QB out. Good news is that the backup has lots of experience with the team, and has run some plays/series this season.
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Old 11-12-2022, 01:43 PM   #1186
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UK has underperformed all year and a loss to Vandy would just about seal one of the most disappointing seasons ever - primarily due to finally having expectations and not coming close to meeting them.
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Old 11-12-2022, 02:19 PM   #1187
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Odd how all of this works - so much goes into game-planning and scouting that by the time the game starts, the fans have missed most of the game.

We take it for granted that NFL teams have competent coaching and know the routine. But there are likely many college programs where the coaching staff just isn't up to the task.

So here we have a quarterback who scouts say will play on Sundays going 11-23-0-1-109 against Vanderbilt, and losing. And that doesn't necessarily mean he won't be drafted in the top three next year.
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Old 11-12-2022, 02:32 PM   #1188
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Illinois forgetting that they have a good defense, although they've been a bit unlucky. They were looking so good a couple weeks ago, painful collapse. The winner of the Big Ten West might have four losses.

It could be Iowa again!

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Old 11-12-2022, 02:49 PM   #1189
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Well, I guess win your clunkers and all. But that was the worst half of football Iíve ever seen, ND
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Old 11-12-2022, 04:34 PM   #1190
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Coastal Carolina takes on Sun Belt newcomer Southern Mississippi for the first time tonight 7:30 pm on ESPN2.



No idea what to expect from this game-team we haven't faced before and out star QB out. Good news is that the backup has lots of experience with the team, and has run some plays/series this season.


And it doesn't matter as much cause Coastal just clinched the Sun Belt East without having to play a single down.
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Old 11-12-2022, 04:41 PM   #1191
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That was a pretty impressive play by the Iowa secondary.
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Old 11-12-2022, 04:53 PM   #1192
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Odd how all of this works - so much goes into game-planning and scouting that by the time the game starts, the fans have missed most of the game.

We take it for granted that NFL teams have competent coaching and know the routine. But there are likely many college programs where the coaching staff just isn't up to the task.

So here we have a quarterback who scouts say will play on Sundays going 11-23-0-1-109 against Vanderbilt, and losing. And that doesn't necessarily mean he won't be drafted in the top three next year.

It's funny how you can trace all of the dominoes - or at least, make a reasonable argument why things have turned out like they did.

I don't do analysis for a living so I may be way off base, but last year, Stoops hired Liam Coen, who was the Rams QB coach, to be the OC. UK's offense was great and Levis came out of nowhere to be an NFL prospect. Then, the Rams won the Super Bowl, the Vikings went 8-9 and fired Zimmer, and the Rams OC Kevin O'Connell got hired by Minnesota. That left the OC job open for Coen, who left UK after one year (on good terms - it's clear he didn't feel like staying in the NFL for less than a coordinator position).

So Stoops decided to try the same NFL magic with Rich Scangarello from the 49ers (along with SF's OL coach). It has not worked out.

Coen may never have been long for college, and the Rams offense ain't exactly lighting things up this year, but I bet Levis would have been better off with Coen this year.
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Old 11-12-2022, 05:07 PM   #1193
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If McCarthy passes like this against OSU, Michigan will lose by 20. But we're in grind-em-up mode again in the second half. Illinois gets the treatment next.
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Old 11-12-2022, 05:13 PM   #1194
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Wow, not even a mention of possible targeting on that Iowa hit about a minute ago. Sure looked like the LB launched head-first to me.
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Old 11-12-2022, 05:36 PM   #1195
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Iowa winning 21-10 in the 4th quarter with 111 total yards is pure Big Ten West.
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Old 11-12-2022, 05:55 PM   #1196
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First place Iowa is going to have to extend OC Brian Ferentz's contract or risk losing him to another program.
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Old 11-12-2022, 06:02 PM   #1197
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I'm taking Minnesota in the BIG West. Someone has to win it, after all. Can't wait for tarcone to tell me why I'm wrong.
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Old 11-12-2022, 06:04 PM   #1198
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QBs that take a lot of hits in a game tend to get punch drunk by the end. Dart looked lost those last couple drives.
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Old 11-12-2022, 06:51 PM   #1199
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Guess I don't need to worry-Coastal out to a fast 13-0 lead in the first
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Old 11-12-2022, 08:04 PM   #1200
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Tale of Two quarters:Coastal 17-0 after 1, tied 17-17 at the half
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