WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!! - Page 22

PurdueBrad · 07-25-2009, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And why did you toss clap out of your voting consideration, PB? Just curious.

I just don't want to see us split among three candidates, more room for manipulation.

nfg22 · 07-25-2009, 11:20 PM

Well actually four with me, clap, jackal and hoops.

Poli · 07-26-2009, 09:54 AM

Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnng!

hoopsguy · 07-26-2009, 03:39 PM

Well, doesn't seem like there is going to be much going on today based on the posts up to this point.

I'll have more availability tonight than tomorrow - work looks very, very busy tomorrow but I'll be in when I can and should definitely be around for 30-40 minutes leading up to the deadline.

JetsIn06 · 07-26-2009, 06:52 PM

I'm not entirely sure where to go here. For now...

VOTE HOOPSGUY

hoopsguy · 07-26-2009, 07:13 PM

Jets, why did you vote for me over other candidates?

At this point in the game, it is especially important to spell out your reasons for votes. The cost of a wrong vote is much higher now than on a Day 1 or Day 2.

The Jackal · 07-26-2009, 08:35 PM

Didn't have much time to look over things today, I'll definitely be around tomorrow for most of the day.

JetsIn06 · 07-26-2009, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jets, why did you vote for me over other candidates?

At this point in the game, it is especially important to spell out your reasons for votes. The cost of a wrong vote is much higher now than on a Day 1 or Day 2.

Actually, I thought there was a deadline tonight so I kind of just put it there as a placeholder. It looks like there isn't one tonight, so tomorrow I'll look everything over and clarify.

JetsIn06 · 07-26-2009, 09:09 PM

Hmm.

I just went back and checked and there is a deadline tonight.

The Jackal · 07-26-2009, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Hmm.

I just went back and checked and there is a deadline tonight.

That was the original night deadline, but Abe said he'd run the deadline early if everyone that had a night action got it in and that's what happened, I think our next deadline is tomorrow at 10.

JetsIn06 · 07-26-2009, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That was the original night deadline, but Abe said he'd run the deadline early if everyone that had a night action got it in and that's what happened, I think our next deadline is tomorrow at 10.

Ahhhhh. Okay. I get it now.

hoopsguy · 07-26-2009, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jets, why did you vote for me over other candidates?

At this point in the game, it is especially important to spell out your reasons for votes. The cost of a wrong vote is much higher now than on a Day 1 or Day 2.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Actually, I thought there was a deadline tonight so I kind of just put it there as a placeholder. It looks like there isn't one tonight, so tomorrow I'll look everything over and clarify.

Can you understand why I don't feel all warm and fuzzy about a "placeholder" vote that was not replied to until after the original Sunday night deadline that you were confused about? Or that there still has not been a response as to why I was the placeholder?

Conversation in the thread is the only vehicle we have as villagers to learn things (absent seer or unusual role mechanics). When I'm the target of a vote, I'm normally kind of inquisitive as to the reasons for it (good or bad). The quality of the responses goes a long way towards the opinions that I'll form. So I'm not asking to harass you about voting for me, but to try and help form my own opinions for the duration of the game.

So please - pretty please with sugar on top - can you tell me why I was the choice for the placeholder vote today? And, if you are feeling expansive, what you currently have as your trust/distrust lists and why?

JetsIn06 · 07-26-2009, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Can you understand why I don't feel all warm and fuzzy about a "placeholder" vote that was not replied to until after the original Sunday night deadline that you were confused about? Or that there still has not been a response as to why I was the placeholder?

Conversation in the thread is the only vehicle we have as villagers to learn things (absent seer or unusual role mechanics). When I'm the target of a vote, I'm normally kind of inquisitive as to the reasons for it (good or bad). The quality of the responses goes a long way towards the opinions that I'll form. So I'm not asking to harass you about voting for me, but to try and help form my own opinions for the duration of the game.

So please - pretty please with sugar on top - can you tell me why I was the choice for the placeholder vote today? And, if you are feeling expansive, what you currently have as your trust/distrust lists and why?

I don't feel harassed or anything...sorry if I made it seem that way.

Nothing has gone on in the past two days, and I really didn't want to be the guy who didn't vote. Honestly there's not much new to go on. I still think we're kind of blind.

Right now, I trust PB and nfg.

PB: EF told us he was good ,yet you still come back with this:

Quote:

PB, him naming you as good didn't help him in my book.

1 - bad voting record
2 - only claiming one view as seer because of being slutted
3 - claiming another role before claiming seer
4 - only view he had was on the other guy who was slutted besides him
5 - seer reveal was very late in the day, left himself exposed if BG isn't around during short turn-around between day/night phases

That just seemed (and still seems) like quite a number of coincidences to have all come into play at the same time. Obviously he was telling the truth, but very poor luck for both him and the village. It completely sounded like crap to me.

So why would he lie? Maybe I'm missing something here. (Probably

) It just seems like you were doing your best to convince others to doubt him, which seemed wolfish.

I trust nfg because of his Day 1 vote of danny.

I trust ntndeacon as well but it's not 100% in my mind.

hoopsguy · 07-26-2009, 11:55 PM

Jets, I don't think you are reading the stuff on PB the way it was intended.

That comment was the reasons that I left my vote on EF instead of moving it coming off his second reveal. Once EF was dead and revealed as seer my trust in PB was absolute. Well, absolute in the sense that if PB is somehow a wolf then this game is already over because I think we are all making the same assumption.

NTN is dead and shown to be a villager, so that trust should be absolute right about now

JetsIn06 · 07-27-2009, 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN is dead and shown to be a villager, so that trust should be absolute right about now

Haha wow. I'm tired.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 12:32 AM

OK, Day 4 vote/unvote list and analysis in next post:

616 - JAG votes Lerriuqs
623 - Clap votes Hoops 1-1
641 - PB votes JAG 1-1-1
643 - Lerriuqs votes JAG 2-1-1 JAG over Lerriuqs/Hoops
650 - NFG votes Hoops 2-2-1 JAG/Hoops over Lerriuqs
653 - Jets votes JAG 3-2-1 JAG over Hoops over Lerriuqs
664 - Hoops votes Jackal 3-2-1-1 JAG over Hoops over Lerriuqs/Jackal
670 - JAG unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Jackal 3-2-2 JAG over Hoops/Jackal
674 - Jackal votes JAG 4-2-2 JAG over Hoops/Jackal
704 - Schmidty votes TheNorm 4-2-2-1 JAG over Hoops/Jackal over TheNorm
711 - NTN votes JAG 5-2-2-1 JAG over Hoops/Jackal over TheNorm
712 - Lerri unvotes JAG, votes Jackal 4-3-2-1 JAG over Jackal over Hoops over TheNorm
713 - MartinD votes Hoops 4-3-3-1 JAG over Jackal/Hoops over TheNorm
721 - Schmidty unvotes TheNorm 4-3-3 JAG over Jackal/Hoops
736 - Schmidty votes Jackal 4-4-3 JAG/Jackal over Hoops
753 - NFG unvotes Hoops, votes JAG 5-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops
759 - PB unvotes JAG, votes Jackal 5-4-2 Jackal over JAG over Hoops
786 - PB unvotes Jackal, votes JAG 5-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops
818 - TheNorm votes JAG 6-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 12:36 AM

OK, here are the comments. Now, I'm working under the assumption that The Jackal is a wolf. If I'm wrong on this, then we probably are going to lose this game. Coming back from another villager lynch, while mathematically possible, seems like it will be really, really hard.

Comments are notes that I made while reviewing posts in order:
1.) Lerri = good if Jackal = wolf, based on post #712. Very high probability.
2.) MartinD - puts in a vote that brings me into tie with Jackal, one back of JAG. Best vote for wolf there is probably JAG, but early enough (5 3/4 hours before deadline) that it is not a slam dunk. But MartinD is not going to be back either, so that vote is locked for all intents and purposes
3.) Multiple times that Jackal questions Schmidty on this day (Schmidty comments on this in Post #742), I believe he is likely good if Jackal is bad as well. High probability.
4.) NFG not looking at all good in his vote (#753) if Jackal is a wolf. But I don't think he is the 3rd candidate that looks the most suspicious behind Jackal/Clap
5.) PB swings vote back to Jackal (#759) but then in Post #786 PB lets Jackal off the hook (damn it!)
6.) Post #770 Jets argues that run on Jackal feels strange. Hmm, I know that me + JAG = villagers, so wolves were not coming to rescue us.
7.) Post #794 Clap is around this night, only time all game he is around near deadline - when Jackal is in danger of getting lynched
8.) Post #818 TheNorm votes JAG, very disappointing to see late villager movement cement the outcome here if it turns out that Jackal was a wolf.

I would have loved to see what Clap would have done if Norm had tied it up with 7 minutes to go.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 12:37 AM

If Jackal = wolf then my COT becomes:
1.) me
2.) PB
3.) Lerri
4.) Schmidty

I think that gives us a pretty reasonable shot at winning this game.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 12:37 AM

OK, done for the night at this point.

claphamsa · 07-27-2009, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, here are the comments. Now, I'm working under the assumption that The Jackal is a wolf. If I'm wrong on this, then we probably are going to lose this game. Coming back from another villager lynch, while mathematically possible, seems like it will be really, really hard.

Comments are notes that I made while reviewing posts in order:
1.) Lerri = good if Jackal = wolf, based on post #712. Very high probability.
2.) MartinD - puts in a vote that brings me into tie with Jackal, one back of JAG. Best vote for wolf there is probably JAG, but early enough (5 3/4 hours before deadline) that it is not a slam dunk. But MartinD is not going to be back either, so that vote is locked for all intents and purposes
3.) Multiple times that Jackal questions Schmidty on this day (Schmidty comments on this in Post #742), I believe he is likely good if Jackal is bad as well. High probability.
4.) NFG not looking at all good in his vote (#753) if Jackal is a wolf. But I don't think he is the 3rd candidate that looks the most suspicious behind Jackal/Clap
5.) PB swings vote back to Jackal (#759) but then in Post #786 PB lets Jackal off the hook (damn it!)
6.) Post #770 Jets argues that run on Jackal feels strange. Hmm, I know that me + JAG = villagers, so wolves were not coming to rescue us.
7.) Post #794 Clap is around this night, only time all game he is around near deadline - when Jackal is in danger of getting lynched
8.) Post #818 TheNorm votes JAG, very disappointing to see late villager movement cement the outcome here if it turns out that Jackal was a wolf.

I would have loved to see what Clap would have done if Norm had tied it up with 7 minutes to go.

thats easy, nothing, as I said in thread, I have also been on for other deadlines... just had nothing to say.

claphamsa · 07-27-2009, 08:54 AM

vote hoops

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 09:01 AM

I just realized I had not put my vote down yet for The Jackal.

VOTE THE JACKAL

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 09:01 AM

Vote count, as of Post #1072:

Hoops - NFG (1010), Jets (1055), Clap (1071)
Jackal - PB (1036), Hoops (1071)
NFG - MartinD (1021)

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 09:06 AM

Jackal is clearly going to vote for me, citing self defense and me gunning for him. Just like he did with JAG. So that will effectively make the vote 4-2.

Which means that if the people on me are not moving then I'll need MartinD to move his vote and everyone else to vote for The Jackal. That would create a 5-4 margin.

I'm not counting on NFG moving, even though I'm leaning towards him being a villager. Jets certainly had an opportunity to at least unvote me last night if the vote is a placeholder but did not choose to do so. If I'm lynched I would hope that the remaining players would consider this vote extremely suspect.

I'm not even going to waste my breath trying to move Clap or The Jackal since I'm convinced we are on opposite sides of this game.

EagleFan · 07-27-2009, 09:08 AM

lerriuqs · 07-27-2009, 09:39 AM

Vote The Jackal

lerriuqs · 07-27-2009, 09:39 AM

I really don't see any other option for today.l

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:35 AM

Well, I still remain unconvinced that a showdown between me and hoops is going to solve our problems, but it looks like it's unavoidable.

VOTE HOOPS

nfg22 · 07-27-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I really don't see any other option for today.l

Well...there is hoops...

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nfg22

Well...there is hoops...

NFG, everything I've posted up to this point - compared to the lack of backing that The Jackal has provided - doesn't mean a thing to you in terms of your vote today?

Are you seriously so married to your "gut" that you are going to ignore any kind of analysis?

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NFG, everything I've posted up to this point - compared to the lack of backing that The Jackal has provided - doesn't mean a thing to you in terms of your vote today?

Are you seriously so married to your "gut" that you are going to ignore any kind of analysis?

You have been posting good analysis but since when have you not posted good analysis when you are a wolf? You're one of the smartest players around. This is a tough one to judge.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:40 AM

I'm pushing this because every villager who does vote for me makes it that much easier for the wolves to end up burying one vote on me. If they are going to get me today I want them to have to use all of the wolves to do it so the remaining villagers have a fighting chance of winning the game when I'm done.

If the wolves do not have to commit all of their members to voting for me today then I think it is going to be way, way harder to pin them down over the remainder of this week.

claphamsa · 07-27-2009, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm not even going to waste my breath trying to move Clap or The Jackal since I'm convinced we are on opposite sides of this game.

I must say, Jackyl is starting to seem wolfier to me.... and hoops going so hard after jackyl does not make sense, since I think they are both wolves..... I say we resurect the rabble rouser, and lynch them both!

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:42 AM

All I really have against you, hoops, is the voting record and the fact you've been on me the past few days when I know my own allegiance. So that's what I'm looking at here. I'd rather go a different way with the vote, but at this point since we've been centrally involved in the voting it'd probably be best for figuring out other people's allegiances.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:45 AM

I don't know what to tell you, I was never voting with clap early on, or anyone else for that matter (except when I latched with PB on the norm) .. I've been trying to go on gut with my votes, and a bit of self-defense mixed in. Hasn't worked this far, unless you are a wolf. If you aren't, then both of our voting records are shot to shit.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You have been posting good analysis but since when have you not posted good analysis when you are a wolf? You're one of the smartest players around. This is a tough one to judge.

I try to play as similar a game as possible on both sides, but there is always a "bait and switch" as a wolf because you are hiding the fact that you have to deceive people. There is no such dichotomy as a villager - you are presenting the truth as you see it rather than as you need people to believe it.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:49 AM

Jackal, if you want to play this out - what is your trust list at this point in the game? How does it change if you accept that I'm a villager?

I've posted my trust lists constantly over the last couple of days because I want the village to benefit from it if/when I'm removed from the game. If you are a villager, I would expect you to have similarly good intentions for the remaining villagers.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:52 AM

Don't you think there were some voting switches I would have made if I was a wolf, hoops? I mean I've been under suspicion most of the game, the most glaring one was the EF night, if I was a wolf and the seer's fate was right there for me to seal, I imagine I would've done it. Granted, Schmidty took care of that, but I've tried to express in my voting that I'm a villager and I guess it hasn't fully come across.

Or you are a wolf and there's no reason for me to get it across, but I truly don't know.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jackal, if you want to play this out - what is your trust list at this point in the game? How does it change if you accept that I'm a villager?

I've posted my trust lists constantly over the last couple of days because I want the village to benefit from it if/when I'm removed from the game. If you are a villager, I would expect you to have similarly good intentions for the remaining villagers.

The only person I trust is PB, there's not much of a reason to trust anyone else.

Does anyone have final votes from each day easily accessible? If not I'll go through and look before I try and put together any sort of trust list (based on you being a wolf or a villager). But it's basically going to be going from most suspicious to least suspicious as there hasn't been much in the way of voting to cement anyone's innocence.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:56 AM

Jackal, as a wolf you didn't need to take out the seer - the villagers were doing a good enough job of it for you.

That was my thought earlier when NFG said the wolves were playing a great game - they are, insofar as they are staying out of the way of the bumbling villagers. I don't think that the wolves have had to make many real moves at all. They are pretty much winning effortlessly because the villagers keep doing the work for them.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:57 AM

lerriuqs, are you just siding with hoops analysis, or what? You were on me at least once before too. Want to elaborate on the vote?

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

The only person I trust is PB, there's not much of a reason to trust anyone else.

Does anyone have final votes from each day easily accessible? If not I'll go through and look before I try and put together any sort of trust list (based on you being a wolf or a villager). But it's basically going to be going from most suspicious to least suspicious as there hasn't been much in the way of voting to cement anyone's innocence.

JAG had a post at the start of Day 4 with votes from the first three days that should help with putting this together. I used this for my vote analysis over the weekend.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Jackal, as a wolf you didn't need to take out the seer - the villagers were doing a good enough job of it for you.

That was my thought earlier when NFG said the wolves were playing a great game - they are, insofar as they are staying out of the way of the bumbling villagers. I don't think that the wolves have had to make many real moves at all. They are pretty much winning effortlessly because the villagers keep doing the work for them.

I guess. Further cementing my belief that it's not an absolute that one of the three of us on Pass is a wolf.

hoopsguy · 07-27-2009, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I guess. Further cementing my belief that it's not an absolute that one of the three of us on Pass is a wolf.

Then the wolves would have picked a very strange way of burying their votes on Day 1.

If you want to open your mind to the possibility that neither of us are wolves then I can't see how you would not vote Clap.

Wow, was that a triple negative? Point being - if you think we are both good, then how in the world do you think that Clap is as well?

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Then the wolves would have picked a very strange way of burying their votes on Day 1.

If you want to open your mind to the possibility that neither of us are wolves then I can't see how you would not vote Clap.

Wow, was that a triple negative? Point being - if you think we are both good, then how in the world do you think that Clap is as well?

I never said I wouldn't vote for clap. I definitely don't have a read on him. If we are both good, he would be one of my top candidates, but not necessarily where I would go. Schmidty hasn't voted yet, so I'm sure I'll draw his ire by saying this, but I'd probably decide between Schmidty and clap.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:20 AM

It's hard to know who is genuinely listening and who doesn't care about what we are saying at this point, though. The wolves are hidden well.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:23 AM

hoops at what point do you think it would be smart for any remaining roles to reveal, if at any point? The BG would be thrust into the CoT (or a wolf would claim BG and we'd have a more concrete idea of where to go with voting) - and we could see who claimed vanilla and who claimed a role.

I don't know if that's a good plan, I just dont think its been mentioned recently

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:23 AM

I am assuming we have a BG, of course. I guess it's possible we don't, but I don't recall a WW game without a BG.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:26 AM

In regards to building a trust list, I know I've given NFG a pass for that vote on Danny thus far but the way he is reacting to you is striking me oddly, so he is moving down it.

The Jackal · 07-27-2009, 11:31 AM

Other people are free to answer that question about the revealing too, I encourage it, I don't want hoops to be the only one it's directed at if he's a wolf.

07-26-2009, 09:54 AM	#1053
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrriiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnnng! __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

07-27-2009, 08:54 AM	#1071
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	vote hoops __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

07-25-2009, 11:20 PM	#1052
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Well actually four with me, clap, jackal and hoops.

07-26-2009, 03:39 PM	#1054
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Well, doesn't seem like there is going to be much going on today based on the posts up to this point. I'll have more availability tonight than tomorrow - work looks very, very busy tomorrow but I'll be in when I can and should definitely be around for 30-40 minutes leading up to the deadline.

07-26-2009, 06:52 PM	#1055
JetsIn06 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Rahway, NJ	I'm not entirely sure where to go here. For now... VOTE HOOPSGUY

07-26-2009, 07:13 PM	#1056
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Jets, why did you vote for me over other candidates? At this point in the game, it is especially important to spell out your reasons for votes. The cost of a wrong vote is much higher now than on a Day 1 or Day 2.

07-26-2009, 08:35 PM	#1057
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Didn't have much time to look over things today, I'll definitely be around tomorrow for most of the day.

07-26-2009, 09:09 PM	#1059
JetsIn06 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Rahway, NJ	Hmm. I just went back and checked and there is a deadline tonight.

07-26-2009, 11:55 PM	#1064
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Jets, I don't think you are reading the stuff on PB the way it was intended. That comment was the reasons that I left my vote on EF instead of moving it coming off his second reveal. Once EF was dead and revealed as seer my trust in PB was absolute. Well, absolute in the sense that if PB is somehow a wolf then this game is already over because I think we are all making the same assumption. NTN is dead and shown to be a villager, so that trust should be absolute right about now

07-27-2009, 12:32 AM	#1066
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, Day 4 vote/unvote list and analysis in next post: 616 - JAG votes Lerriuqs 623 - Clap votes Hoops 1-1 641 - PB votes JAG 1-1-1 643 - Lerriuqs votes JAG 2-1-1 JAG over Lerriuqs/Hoops 650 - NFG votes Hoops 2-2-1 JAG/Hoops over Lerriuqs 653 - Jets votes JAG 3-2-1 JAG over Hoops over Lerriuqs 664 - Hoops votes Jackal 3-2-1-1 JAG over Hoops over Lerriuqs/Jackal 670 - JAG unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Jackal 3-2-2 JAG over Hoops/Jackal 674 - Jackal votes JAG 4-2-2 JAG over Hoops/Jackal 704 - Schmidty votes TheNorm 4-2-2-1 JAG over Hoops/Jackal over TheNorm 711 - NTN votes JAG 5-2-2-1 JAG over Hoops/Jackal over TheNorm 712 - Lerri unvotes JAG, votes Jackal 4-3-2-1 JAG over Jackal over Hoops over TheNorm 713 - MartinD votes Hoops 4-3-3-1 JAG over Jackal/Hoops over TheNorm 721 - Schmidty unvotes TheNorm 4-3-3 JAG over Jackal/Hoops 736 - Schmidty votes Jackal 4-4-3 JAG/Jackal over Hoops 753 - NFG unvotes Hoops, votes JAG 5-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops 759 - PB unvotes JAG, votes Jackal 5-4-2 Jackal over JAG over Hoops 786 - PB unvotes Jackal, votes JAG 5-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops 818 - TheNorm votes JAG 6-4-2 JAG over Jackal over Hoops

07-27-2009, 12:36 AM	#1067
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, here are the comments. Now, I'm working under the assumption that The Jackal is a wolf. If I'm wrong on this, then we probably are going to lose this game. Coming back from another villager lynch, while mathematically possible, seems like it will be really, really hard. Comments are notes that I made while reviewing posts in order: 1.) Lerri = good if Jackal = wolf, based on post #712. Very high probability. 2.) MartinD - puts in a vote that brings me into tie with Jackal, one back of JAG. Best vote for wolf there is probably JAG, but early enough (5 3/4 hours before deadline) that it is not a slam dunk. But MartinD is not going to be back either, so that vote is locked for all intents and purposes 3.) Multiple times that Jackal questions Schmidty on this day (Schmidty comments on this in Post #742), I believe he is likely good if Jackal is bad as well. High probability. 4.) NFG not looking at all good in his vote (#753) if Jackal is a wolf. But I don't think he is the 3rd candidate that looks the most suspicious behind Jackal/Clap 5.) PB swings vote back to Jackal (#759) but then in Post #786 PB lets Jackal off the hook (damn it!) 6.) Post #770 Jets argues that run on Jackal feels strange. Hmm, I know that me + JAG = villagers, so wolves were not coming to rescue us. 7.) Post #794 Clap is around this night, only time all game he is around near deadline - when Jackal is in danger of getting lynched 8.) Post #818 TheNorm votes JAG, very disappointing to see late villager movement cement the outcome here if it turns out that Jackal was a wolf. I would have loved to see what Clap would have done if Norm had tied it up with 7 minutes to go.

07-27-2009, 12:37 AM	#1068
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	If Jackal = wolf then my COT becomes: 1.) me 2.) PB 3.) Lerri 4.) Schmidty I think that gives us a pretty reasonable shot at winning this game.

07-27-2009, 12:37 AM	#1069
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, done for the night at this point.

07-27-2009, 09:01 AM	#1072
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I just realized I had not put my vote down yet for The Jackal. VOTE THE JACKAL

07-27-2009, 09:01 AM	#1073
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Vote count, as of Post #1072: Hoops - NFG (1010), Jets (1055), Clap (1071) Jackal - PB (1036), Hoops (1071) NFG - MartinD (1021)

07-27-2009, 09:06 AM	#1074
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Jackal is clearly going to vote for me, citing self defense and me gunning for him. Just like he did with JAG. So that will effectively make the vote 4-2. Which means that if the people on me are not moving then I'll need MartinD to move his vote and everyone else to vote for The Jackal. That would create a 5-4 margin. I'm not counting on NFG moving, even though I'm leaning towards him being a villager. Jets certainly had an opportunity to at least unvote me last night if the vote is a placeholder but did not choose to do so. If I'm lynched I would hope that the remaining players would consider this vote extremely suspect. I'm not even going to waste my breath trying to move Clap or The Jackal since I'm convinced we are on opposite sides of this game.

07-27-2009, 09:08 AM	#1075
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA

07-27-2009, 09:39 AM	#1076
lerriuqs High School Varsity Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saskatchewan	Vote The Jackal

07-27-2009, 09:39 AM	#1077
lerriuqs High School Varsity Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saskatchewan	I really don't see any other option for today.l

07-27-2009, 10:35 AM	#1078
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well, I still remain unconvinced that a showdown between me and hoops is going to solve our problems, but it looks like it's unavoidable. VOTE HOOPS

07-27-2009, 10:40 AM	#1082
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm pushing this because every villager who does vote for me makes it that much easier for the wolves to end up burying one vote on me. If they are going to get me today I want them to have to use all of the wolves to do it so the remaining villagers have a fighting chance of winning the game when I'm done. If the wolves do not have to commit all of their members to voting for me today then I think it is going to be way, way harder to pin them down over the remainder of this week.

07-27-2009, 10:42 AM	#1084
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	All I really have against you, hoops, is the voting record and the fact you've been on me the past few days when I know my own allegiance. So that's what I'm looking at here. I'd rather go a different way with the vote, but at this point since we've been centrally involved in the voting it'd probably be best for figuring out other people's allegiances.

07-27-2009, 10:45 AM	#1085
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I don't know what to tell you, I was never voting with clap early on, or anyone else for that matter (except when I latched with PB on the norm) .. I've been trying to go on gut with my votes, and a bit of self-defense mixed in. Hasn't worked this far, unless you are a wolf. If you aren't, then both of our voting records are shot to shit.

07-27-2009, 10:49 AM	#1087
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Jackal, if you want to play this out - what is your trust list at this point in the game? How does it change if you accept that I'm a villager? I've posted my trust lists constantly over the last couple of days because I want the village to benefit from it if/when I'm removed from the game. If you are a villager, I would expect you to have similarly good intentions for the remaining villagers.

07-27-2009, 10:52 AM	#1088
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Don't you think there were some voting switches I would have made if I was a wolf, hoops? I mean I've been under suspicion most of the game, the most glaring one was the EF night, if I was a wolf and the seer's fate was right there for me to seal, I imagine I would've done it. Granted, Schmidty took care of that, but I've tried to express in my voting that I'm a villager and I guess it hasn't fully come across. Or you are a wolf and there's no reason for me to get it across, but I truly don't know.

07-27-2009, 10:56 AM	#1090
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Jackal, as a wolf you didn't need to take out the seer - the villagers were doing a good enough job of it for you. That was my thought earlier when NFG said the wolves were playing a great game - they are, insofar as they are staying out of the way of the bumbling villagers. I don't think that the wolves have had to make many real moves at all. They are pretty much winning effortlessly because the villagers keep doing the work for them.

07-27-2009, 10:57 AM	#1091
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	lerriuqs, are you just siding with hoops analysis, or what? You were on me at least once before too. Want to elaborate on the vote?

07-27-2009, 11:20 AM	#1096
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	It's hard to know who is genuinely listening and who doesn't care about what we are saying at this point, though. The wolves are hidden well.

07-27-2009, 11:23 AM	#1097
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	hoops at what point do you think it would be smart for any remaining roles to reveal, if at any point? The BG would be thrust into the CoT (or a wolf would claim BG and we'd have a more concrete idea of where to go with voting) - and we could see who claimed vanilla and who claimed a role. I don't know if that's a good plan, I just dont think its been mentioned recently

07-27-2009, 11:23 AM	#1098
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I am assuming we have a BG, of course. I guess it's possible we don't, but I don't recall a WW game without a BG.

07-27-2009, 11:26 AM	#1099
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	In regards to building a trust list, I know I've given NFG a pass for that vote on Danny thus far but the way he is reacting to you is striking me oddly, so he is moving down it.

07-27-2009, 11:31 AM	#1100
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Other people are free to answer that question about the revealing too, I encourage it, I don't want hoops to be the only one it's directed at if he's a wolf.