WW CLII Gorey Stories - Middle Floor - GAME OVER! START HERE at Post 954 to see how!

[CrimsonFox]

no deadline tonight.

[bhlloy]

Heh, I can see where this is going already. I don't have a good case to not vote me other than the switches on day 3.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Heh, I can see where this is going already. I don't have a good case to not vote me other than the switches on day 3.

I don't think so. But I do believe one of the votes on you is a wolf.

[JAG]

I'm taking a step back for a sec here.

We started with 18 players. Presumably we are dealing with a 14:4 villager to wolf split as 15:3 seems like too few wolves and 13:5 seems too slanted towards the wolves. I could maybe see 13:5 in some cases, but not with some of the difficulties we have to overcome with things like separate rooms messing with things like reveals and such. So with four wolves being the likely total we're dealing with, two wolves are down and two are left out of the seven remaining players.

We know Britrock was the second night kill. With all due respect to him, he does not have the WW reputation of a dangerous villager that must be killed early on. I was with him day 1 and he was not particularly active or advocating any ideas I remembered as being especially amazing that wolves would have reason to be afraid of. The only reason I can point to with him being killed is that he made a statement at the very end of Day 1 stating it would be bad for the village if he was voted out. The only players who had been on the top floor to have seen that statement are Chief Rum, GE, ntn, myself, Autumn, and bhlloy. Of those players, the only ones alive are myself, Autumn, and bhlloy, so it stands to pretty darn good reason that one of Autumn or bhlloy is a wolf, saw that statement by Britrock, and tried to eliminate a villager with a potentially dangerous role.

Still have more to say, but holding back some info for a bit yet.

[booradley]

DT's posts, with my comments, in order of most-recent to first:

650: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...38#post2768638 Do we have a deadline tonight? I'm going on a... sets stage for not being around for tricky vote until late (for 3rd time)

615: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...47#post2768247 HAHA - joke's on you this time fucking robber. I... inconsequential post

606: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...23#post2768223 Guess I need to get that vote down, given the... votes for GE, a villager (late); defends bhlloy; tries to shift suspicion onto me, a villager

603: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...20#post2768220 your vote doesn't bother me that much bhlloy.... defends bhlloy

600: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...16#post2768216 HEY CF - ANY INSIGHT ON WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE'S A... inconsequential post

598: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...14#post2768214 Do we have any idea what happens if there's a... inconsequential post

596: Let me guess - if i vote bhlloy you'll jump on me... Let me guess - if i vote bhlloy you'll jump on me... Defensive reaction to Lathum's suspicion, but can't exonerate himself OR bhlloy

595: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...11#post2768211 Passengers? I had a crazy day, just getting the... he's late, as the going gets tricky. This will be a trend

489: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...24#post2767724 Easy day. VOTE ZINTO no brainer, we ALL knew Zinto was a wolf

465: Bad timing. I'm too smart a wolf to sandwich... Bad timing. I'm too smart a wolf to sandwich... The one post that bothers me, although bhlloy's vote against DT came early, with plenty of time to switch. Indeed, 2 hours later bhlloy DID switch his vote - to Pass, a villager. Clever wolfishness?

370: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...56#post2767156 Oh - I missed all these recent posts - that makes... inconsequential post

366: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...52#post2767152 Let's make things a little closer and see if... votes for Chief Rum, a villager.

336: Lots of votes on Danny - am I missing something? Lots of votes on Danny - am I missing something? Concern for Danny, a fellow baddie. Is it a lost cause, or can he save his buddy?

306: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...84#post2766684 Alright - who's the motherfucker who robbed me of... inconsequential post

282: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...02#post2766602 Yeah concerned with deadline. Of course. He WANTS to vote late!

278: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...82#post2766582 Let's see what this does as far as causing... votes for Darth Vilus, a villager. His vote (post 278) follows bhlloy's vote for DV (Post 246)

276: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...70#post2766570 True Okay...that makes sense takes direction from bhlloy

273: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...66#post2766566 i think it's just that these type of... inconsequential post

270: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...61#post2766561 why do you feel good about darth bhlloy? looking to take cue from bhlloy vs Darth Vilus (villager)

262: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...38#post2766538 I lost count of how much treasure I found, but I... inconsequential post

261: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...37#post2766537 damn - today just kicked my ass in terms of... inconsequential post

195: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...32#post2765932 triple dola "at least i think that's how it... inconsequential post

194: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...31#post2765931 At least I think that's how it went - these big... votes for Dubb, The Hunter

193: http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/...27#post2765927 Um as far as this goes - I inspected the tub... inconsequential post

158: INSPECT FLOOR INSPECT FLOOR inconsequential post

Based upon the foregoing evidence, I conclude DT and bhlloy are wolves. DT seems to have a collaborative relationship with bhlloy, and he has consistently voted for Good Guys, excepting the case of Zinto, which was convenient cover at no cost to himself.

I realize that I hang my reputation upon this post. It will look bad for me if I'm wrong. But I'm not.

VOTE DADDYTORGO

[mauchow]

unvote autumn
Vote dt

I didn't think I'd be able to convince others to go the dt route until another day passed.
I feel good about there being two wolves between autumn bhlloy and dt.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by JAG

With all due respect to him, he does not have the WW reputation of a dangerous villager that must be killed early on.

[Autumn]

I'll have to read some of those key posts later, booradley. Nice work putting together such an easy to use list though. At first glance, I do see a lot of connections to bhlloy, but then again some of them involve him taking bhlloy's lead in-thread, which is something a wolf wouldn't need to do with a fellow wolf. So I'm not sure how damning it is.

[bhlloy]

Sorry, none of that makes any sense. Why would we be communicating in thread as wolves when we would have PM rights to each other?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by booradley

DT's posts, with my comments, in order of most-recent to first:
VOTE DADDYTORGO

Congratulations - you've discovered that I've been busy since the game started and find it hard to get connected with "different" games like this to actually provide quality analysis of what's going on. It also kinda pissed me off that I got robbed - I didn't see that one coming.

And I'm sorry - who hasn't voted for a ton of villagers in this game, considering we only got our 2 wolves due to saldana's reveal and scans?

This is all BS.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE BOORADLEY

[DaddyTorgo]

Finishing my thought - it kinda pissed me off that I got robbed, didn't see that coming, and that made me more inclined to not devote a ton of time to trying to analyze things to be honest.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Congratulations - you've discovered that I've been busy since the game started and find it hard to get connected with "different" games like this to actually provide quality analysis of what's going on. It also kinda pissed me off that I got robbed - I didn't see that one coming.

And I'm sorry - who hasn't voted for a ton of villagers in this game, considering we only got our 2 wolves due to saldana's reveal and scans?

This is all BS.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE BOORADLEY

I took your ring but then someone took it from me the next day. If my tally is right I don't have anywhere close to what the leaderboard has.

[booradley]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Sorry, none of that makes any sense. Why would we be communicating in thread as wolves when we would have PM rights to each other?

NONE of that makes ANY sense?? My dream come true - a categorical denial of all evidence when my vote wasn't even placed on you tonight. You may as well hold up a sign saying "I'm a wolf!" I feel completely validated now. Your buddy DT gets his tonight, and then you get yours tomorrow, Mr. Snausages. Then the villagers will have a well-deserved win.

[booradley]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Congratulations - you've discovered that I've been busy since the game started and find it hard to get connected with "different" games like this to actually provide quality analysis of what's going on. It also kinda pissed me off that I got robbed - I didn't see that one coming.

And I'm sorry - who hasn't voted for a ton of villagers in this game, considering we only got our 2 wolves due to saldana's reveal and scans?

This is all BS.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE BOORADLEY

You just switched your vote from a wolf to a villager, bro. Won't help your aforementioned voting record a bit ...

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by booradley

NONE of that makes ANY sense?? My dream come true - a categorical denial of all evidence when my vote wasn't even placed on you tonight. You may as well hold up a sign saying "I'm a wolf!" I feel completely validated now. Your buddy DT gets his tonight, and then you get yours tomorrow, Mr. Snausages. Then the villagers will have a well-deserved win.

No, it doesn't. You seem to claim DT and I are communicating in thread and he's following my suggestions, which two wolves would have absolutely no need to do because wolves have PM rights. You're entire premise is faulty and if someone as good at this game as Autumn can't see it, then I'm even more convinced than I already am that he's the wolf in the group of three. And now I'm beginning to think that you are the second one.

[bhlloy]

Vote Autumn

I feel very good about this now. I was thinking Autumn and JAG were the wolf master team, but now I think it's Autumn and boo

[JAG]

Originally Posted by booradley

Lots of detailed stuff

That's some great detailed analysis boo, and knowing how long it takes to put together those types of posts must have cost you some time too. If you're going to do that type of post every now and then, I hope you stick around beyond this game.

I think you're right that there is some objective evidence that points to him being wolfish. The big thing that I can't get past is the same thing you pointed to as a weak link: his vote and the timing for it (about 40 minutes til deadline) on D3 for Chief Rum. At that point in time, it had been about five hours since saldana had revealed scanning Danny and Zinto as wolves in the same room where Zinto was. That means the wolves were fully aware that Danny and Zinto were dead men walking because they knew I was heading to the Top Floor to spread the information and Chief Rum + saldana were on the Ground Floor. I just can't believe an experienced wolf in that situation would put such an obviously self-damning vote down for the sake of trying to buy Danny and Zinto an extra day. Reading back through that day in this thread I did notice something I didn't previously.

bhlloy switches to make the vote 5-2 Danny - CR and then

Originally Posted by mauchow

vote danny

Originally Posted by bhlloy

love to hear a reason behind that mau

Originally Posted by mauchow

I'm voting for a non-voter yesterday. CR voted yesterday so he gets a pass. I'll have no problem switching onto a different non-voter if we want to throw out another name.

To me that looks like more how I'd expect a wolf to act under those circumstances, trying to position a vote onto someone you know is going to be revealed as a wolf in a day to make yourself look golden. I would think a villager that didn't know anything about what was going on in the other rooms would try to make the vote closer rather than increase the runaway.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Yet! Also, just making sure you were still reading.

[JAG]

So I went back and looked at where people were killed and tried to recreate who was in the room when they were killed. Chief had an assumption that a wolf had to be in the room where a night kill takes place and I think that makes a lot of sense (for anyone who played in Evil Dead, is that how it worked as well?), otherwise all the rooms and such are solely a handicap for the village, which seems unfair. Here's what I've come up with as a list for remaining players and/or known wolves:

Night Kill 1: dubb killed on Middle Floor (Danny known wolf located there)
Night Kill 3: Chief Rum killed on Middle Floor (wolf/wolves among bhlloy / booradley / DT / Lathum / mauchow presumably killed him)
Night Kill 4: Passacaglia killed on Middle Floor (wolf/wolves among bhlloy / booradley / DT / Lathum / mauchow presumably killed him)
Night Kill 5: ntndeacon killed on Middle Floor (wolf/wolves among Autumn / bhlloy / DT / JAG / Lathum / mauchow killed him)

So out of the five night kills, there was unquestionably a wolf present for four of them. I left out Night Kill 2, which is as follows:

Night Kill 2: Britrock killed on Top Floor (Autumn posted earlier that Britrock was on the middle floor, but he was not. He started on the top floor with me and I saw no post from Day 1 + 2 that he moved to the middle floor).

Of the remaining players that are still alive, only Autumn was present in the room with him when he died.

On Day 2 when Autumn was on the block and the vote was 3-1-1-1-1 with Autumn having 3, wolf Danny posted this:

Originally Posted by Danny

hmmm, I dont want to pile onto Autumn, dont think adding a 6th person is a good idea and definitely dont like Danny as a candidate, so its between Darth, GE an Jackal for me

Certainly looks like he's trying to subtly drive the vote away from Autumn here.

So putting that together, I see Autumn as a more likely wolf than bhlloy.

VOTE AUTUMN

[JAG]

Voting to this point:

DT 2 - booradley (655), mauchow (656)
Autumn 2 - bhlloy (666), JAG (669)
bhlloy 1 - Autumn (644)
booradley 1 - DT (660)

[mauchow]

unvote dt
Vote bhlloy

The last few by bhlloy scream wolf so I'm switching yet again.

[mauchow]

Finally some good developments! It should be a fun last few days.

I'm good with any of these candidates as shown by me voting all three so far! Hah.

[Lathum]

Vote DT

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Vote Autumn

I feel very good about this now. I was thinking Autumn and JAG were the wolf master team, but now I think it's Autumn and boo

I just said a few posts above that boo's statement didn't really make sense. What are you talking about?

[JAG]

Mau, what about bhlloy's posts struck you as wolfish? All he basically said is if he and DT were wolves, they wouldn't be communicating in the thread.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

So out of the five night kills, there was unquestionably a wolf present for four of them. I left out Night Kill 2, which is as follows:

Night Kill 2: Britrock killed on Top Floor (Autumn posted earlier that Britrock was on the middle floor, but he was not. He started on the top floor with me and I saw no post from Day 1 + 2 that he moved to the middle floor).

Of the remaining players that are still alive, only Autumn was present in the room with him when he died.

I just put together my list by going back through this thread. There was a death post for Britrock posted here. I don't think I've ever seen a death post posted in a thread where the death didn't occur. When Dubb died he was in a different thread and I never knew he was dead until I looked on the first page. SAme with some of the others. So while I'm too foggy-headed and have kept no notes to really know where Britrock was, I find it surprising he didn't die here if there's a writeup here. Did CF change things part way through?

[Autumn]

But since JAG is more put together this game than me I'll assume he's right. IN which case my only defense is, why would I bring up the issue of a wolf having to be in the room to make a kill, if analysis of that evidence would point only to me? If I actually made that kill on Britrock there is 0% chance I wouldn't know that the evidence would point to me and 0% chance that I would bring up the issue. That would make no sense.

If JAG's right and I was the only one in the room with Britrock, then the wolves clearly don't have to be in the same room.

[Autumn]

My vote on bhlloy over JAG is solely based on gut, and so I don't have a lot of evidence I can pile up to make my case. I guess my defense of myself is that the one thing I have spent this game doing is championing this list of players who could have read Britrock's post, and sticking to voting that list. If I'm the wolf on the list would I have done that? Or would I have mentioned it a time or two for good karma, and then let it be forgotten as most real evidence eventually is? Would I have done what bhlloy did, which is go to another room and never mention it again until forced to?

[Autumn]

inspect orange shag carpeting

[Autumn]

Oh, I see now, spleen was britrock's lover, and he was probably in this thread, that's why it was posted here. My mistake. I was just doing a quick readback. JAG's probably right then.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Vote Autumn

I feel very good about this now. I was thinking Autumn and JAG were the wolf master team, but now I think it's Autumn and boo

This, jag. I'm gonna go back where I quoted bhlloy on another case too that I thought stood out.

[Autumn]

JAG, I respect your analysis, so I"ll just ask you to consider whether I would as a wolf make a point of bringing up evidence that damns only me, when nobody else was talking about it. And yes I made a mistake in my evidence collection, but do I seem likely to rest my survival on no one noticing that? When at the time I don't think I was really receiving much pressure? Not my style. As a wolf I hope nobody thinks of that at all. That's as good as a seer scan if it was true.

[Autumn]

I've got to get some work done, so I'mg oing to ignore the thread for a bit. We let bhlloy snake out of the vote last time, and I suggest we don't let that happen again.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

um, wow. I like Danny for today but 6 to 1? And one of those other votes is on a dead person?

Originally Posted by bhlloy

unvote Danny
vote CR

6-1 at 5:30 is quite frankly ridiculous. We're dead in the water anyway unless more people vote, but if we don't get any movement we're making it ten times worse

Just wanted to move this post up front for future reference. First to vote danny (buy favor by voting wolf?).

[mauchow]

This is the thought I had on bhlloy a few days ago.

[mauchow]

Bhlloy was first to vote danny and then quick to withdraw when his wolf buddy was in trouble all before the reveal happened. Just bad luck either way as the reveal occurred shortly after.

[Lathum]

I am voting DT based off of his voting record and what I think is faux outrage about beng robbed.

FYI- I will likely be very inactive, my wifes grandmother passed today so we will be dealing with that later in the week.

[booradley]

Nothing I've seen posted by DT or bhlloy has shaken my belief that they are wolves. bhlloy in fact has strengthened my suspicions by turning the focus on JAG & Autumn. I've inspected their post history, and if they are wolves, damn they are good! bhlloy has also snarled at me, a villager, but that was expected. Sticking to my vote, but if bhlloy gets the noose in lieu of DT, that'd be just fine. Now, off to do some real work! Yay ...

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

But since JAG is more put together this game than me I'll assume he's right. IN which case my only defense is, why would I bring up the issue of a wolf having to be in the room to make a kill, if analysis of that evidence would point only to me? If I actually made that kill on Britrock there is 0% chance I wouldn't know that the evidence would point to me and 0% chance that I would bring up the issue. That would make no sense.

If JAG's right and I was the only one in the room with Britrock, then the wolves clearly don't have to be in the same room.

The main reason I can think of is so you can use the very defense you're using. I mentioned early in the day I had something I thought of but didn't want to talk about it yet. It's possible you guessed what I had determined and then tried to come up with a way to mitigate the fallout from that by pleading ignorance. You could even point to missing where Britrock was killed as a way to show that you weren't a wolf since a wolf would clearly know where the kill was made and not make that mistake.

The alternate premise I would have to accept if you are a villager is that a wolf did not have to be present in a room to make a kill and I can't really buy that idea. Why are we playing a game with rooms if for example a wolf in the basement can kill a villager on the top floor?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

My vote on bhlloy over JAG is solely based on gut, and so I don't have a lot of evidence I can pile up to make my case. I guess my defense of myself is that the one thing I have spent this game doing is championing this list of players who could have read Britrock's post, and sticking to voting that list. If I'm the wolf on the list would I have done that? Or would I have mentioned it a time or two for good karma, and then let it be forgotten as most real evidence eventually is? Would I have done what bhlloy did, which is go to another room and never mention it again until forced to?

That is probably the main thing that disturbs me about bhlloy and the main reason why I had suspected you were probably a villager doing what I was doing. Then again I've been fooled by Narcizo as a wolf who pulled that same move, so it's not out of the realm of possibility. Plus bhlloy as a wolf would know that I was discussing this idea on the ground floor since Zinto was there with Saldana, Chief, and I so it's likely he would know he couldn't get away from it.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauchow

This, jag. I'm gonna go back where I quoted bhlloy on another case too that I thought stood out.

Originally Posted by mauchow

Just wanted to move this post up front for future reference. First to vote danny (buy favor by voting wolf?).

At the time it was 6-1, the wolves knew Danny and Zinto had been scanned as wolves, so it seems to me the smart thing to do at that point is sit back and reap the trust benefits that come when Danny is revealed as a wolf. Isn't that why you're suggesting he voted Danny in the first place, to gain trust by voting a wolf?

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

At the time it was 6-1, the wolves knew Danny and Zinto had been scanned as wolves, so it seems to me the smart thing to do at that point is sit back and reap the trust benefits that come when Danny is revealed as a wolf. Isn't that why you're suggesting he voted Danny in the first place, to gain trust by voting a wolf?

Yep. I already forgot about this point and I actually defended bhlloy with that point. This is obviously the point in the game where I don't contribute much and basically suck at being a villager.

unvote bhlloy
Vote autumn

I have come full circle now. I am back to my original vote. Sorry vote tallyer.

[JAG]

Questions for:

Mau: You started the day voting for Autumn, then switched to DT, then to bhlloy with not a lot of explanation (except a little on why you switched to bhlloy). What was your reasoning for voting Autumn and then switching to DT and then to bhlloy? Just trying to see where you're coming from as you seem to have some reasoning for them but haven't really gone into it.

DT: You started off the day voting bhlloy for reasoning Autumn provided, but I've basically shown his reasoning at the time to be off. You then switched to booradley after he presented some evidence against you. Do you have anything you can point to as why you think he's the best candidate as a wolf other than him accusing you of being one?

[bhlloy]

Does nobody else think its strange that booradley doesn't say anything the entire game and then comes steaming in with a huge post supporting Autumns agenda?

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by JAG

At the time it was 6-1, the wolves knew Danny and Zinto had been scanned as wolves, so it seems to me the smart thing to do at that point is sit back and reap the trust benefits that come when Danny is revealed as a wolf. Isn't that why you're suggesting he voted Danny in the first place, to gain trust by voting a wolf?

This is basically the only thing I can point to in order to defend myself. In addition to that, a wolf almost never puts the first vote on another wolf that early in the game because its just bringing heat when there otherwise wouldn't be any

[bhlloy]

I'm also going to continue to state my reasons for not looking at DT. For DT to be a wolf there would be three back to back wolves on CR the day Danny went down. That's just not a play any wolf who has a clue what they are doing makes IMO

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am voting DT based off of his voting record and what I think is faux outrage about beng robbed.

FYI- I will likely be very inactive, my wifes grandmother passed today so we will be dealing with that later in the week.

Very sorry to hear that Lathum.

[booradley]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Does nobody else think its strange that booradley doesn't say anything the entire game and then comes steaming in with a huge post supporting Autumns agenda?

I don't. Now that there's enough evidence in, I'm starting to take a hard look at the data available and patterns are starting to crystallize. Especially today - hoo boy!

[bhlloy]

Or maybe the evidence has always been there but you haven't needed to back up your buddy before? Most of the stuff you claim is damning is at least two or three days old

[mauchow]

I think this vote could be telling for bhlloy/autumn. Bhlloy switched vote close to the end of the night and made it 5-4 instead of 6-3 in dvs favor. Obviously dv was a good guy so that would be good points for not voting bhlloy today.. right ?

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Darth Vilus 5 - saldana (125) Daddy Targo (278) britrock (231) Autumn (235) spleen (290)
Autumn 4 - JAG (206) Darth Vilus (251) mauchow (254) bhlloy (296)
GoldenEagle 1 - Passacaglia (249)
Danny 1 – Chief Rum (208)
Jackal 1 – Booradley (252)