COVID-19 - 4/3 - Poll #9 - How's everyone feeling?

[Edward64]

Continuation of the "how are you feeling" poll.

I know there is an "economic" worry/impact in addition to "mortality" and struggled on how to incorporate those 2 dimensions at the same time. I am leaving it as mortality (but removed the 1% scale) because right now vast majority will be at a 5 for economic worry anyway.

• I think the best way to answer this question is focus on the first part of the description as primary. The second sentence on mortality for 3-5 is secondary.

Progression from 3/13; 3/19; 3/26
74 votes; 56 votes; 41 votes

1 & 2 = 41%; 23%; 19%
3 = 28%; 32%; 32%
4 = 24%; 36%; 34%
5 = 3%; 9%; 15%


3/26 Poll #8 - https://forums.operationsports.com/f...ad.php?t=96638
3/19 Poll #5 - https://forums.operationsports.com/f...ad.php?t=96614
3/13 Poll #1 - https://forums.operationsports.com/f...ad.php?t=96605

[Edward64]

I'm still at a 3 right now but am close to a 4. I know the next 2-4 weeks will be rough as I suspect the daily death counts will be 1,000+.

If the daily counts continue to increase with no good news in sight, I'll move to a 4. These deaths we have right now are in-spite of our best efforts (I think) and not because of lack of ventilators, medicine etc. Which means if/when our health system gets stretched, the nos. will increase dramatically.

In the other post we discussed how Birx & Pence said we are on the same trajectory as Italy (adjusted for population). TBH I'm not sure I believe that right now (and admittedly don't want to believe it) because that would be really horrible.

However, there has been more talk about vaccines and (more importantly for the near term) therapeutics so that has been very helpful to me, to see some focus and progress there.

[SirFozzie]

Actually moved up to a 4. Now it's not new. Now we have (most) folks taking it seriously, and there's some signs of flattening the curve in SOME places. We know what we have to do now, we just have to do it,

[NobodyHere]

Still a two, much more concerned about the economy, deficits, and all that.

[MIJB#19]

Still slightly closer to 3 than 2. But that's based on the situation over here. I'd probably be at 4 or 5 had I lived in, like, New York, Madrid or in the Alps.

[CU Tiger]

Still a 2.

[sterlingice]

I think I went 4/5/4, though, realistically I've been at 4.5ish for a long time. It's more of a 4.4/4.6/4.4.


SI

[Brian Swartz]

3, but with the caveat that I have no idea what 'current predictions' are. They are all over the map, and from what I've read the scientists behind the models say that many of them are trying to predict short-term spread and don't even prognosticate out far enough to get an overall death toll so …

But in any case, I'm still at 3. I do think April is the key month for this. If warm weather is going to have an effect on this that will happen in a lot of places by May, but how our health system copes in the meantime is going to be vital. I see no signs that we're doing as much as we should be on the supplies/equipment front, and how far it spreads among medical personnel is going to determine a lot I think.

[Arles]

I'm a 3, but still want to be extremely cautious. The reason I'm a 3 and not a 4 is that a lot of the doomsday predictions from 3/12-3/20 look to be extremely unlikely. I think the measures we've taken over the past two weeks have reduced the overall risk in the US. It will get worse in April/May, but I'm more hopeful on a summer return to business (albeit limited) than I was before.

[albionmoonlight]

The huge question for me is school in the Fall.

The long term health of the economy requires an educated population. And everyone is doing what they can to muddle through the end of this year with distance learning and the like. But the kids are not learning as much as they would in school (how could they?).

Looking down the road, I think that all of our efforts should be toward reducing the disease and getting testing in place to allow schools to reopen after the summer.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Mrs. A and I have been taking the opportunity to do homeschooling ourselves, and the kids are learning a lot.

But not everyone has that ability. Taking the long-term picture, getting the schools open again is best for everyone.

[Fidatelo]

I've been a 4 every time, still there. This is just all suck.

[bob]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The huge question for me is school in the Fall.

This is a big question for friends of mine with kids in private school.

[sterlingice]

I think the other fall question is "how does this bug do in summer weather". If it is more seasonal, I'm worried we'll have a false sense of security in the summer and then will be swamped in the fall.


SI

[GrantDawg]

I am a 4. I still have to work every day, and I know at least my corner of the world is not taking this seriously. People still out, especially very old people. If I go to a store, it never fails I have an elderly person get right up on me while I am shopping, and they often even start close talking me. The general idea of this being stupid and over-blown is rampant. I also had the joy of a co-worker telling me that this is all just God's judgment on gays. I said, "so God is killing Grandma because of gay people?" *smash forehead into table*

[Brian Swartz]

I'm definitely with SI's point, but I think by then there's a chance we'll be better prepared.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think the other fall question is "how does this bug do in summer weather". If it is more seasonal, I'm worried we'll have a false sense of security in the summer and then will be swamped in the fall.


SI

Which may be another reason to relax some of the restrictions by July when the virus struggles to propagate as easily (esp for the lower risk groups). Then, by the fall, we may have more of a herd immunity to protect the weaker groups when it gets colder. I think the worst thing we could do is stay in lockdown until Sept and then relax the restrictions (either we think it is safe or lose patience) right as it starts to get colder. If we feel that we don't have the stomach to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found, then we should start relaxing in the summer.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I also had the joy of a co-worker telling me that this is all just God's judgment on gays. I said, "so God is killing Grandma because of gay people?" *smash forehead into table*

Jesus, has this person procreated?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm definitely with SI's point, but I think by then there's a chance we'll be better prepared.

Originally Posted by Arles

Which may be another reason to relax some of the restrictions by July when the virus struggles to propagate as easily (esp for the lower risk groups). Then, by the fall, we may have more of a herd immunity to protect the weaker groups when it gets colder. I think the worst thing we could do is stay in lockdown until Sept and then relax the restrictions (either we think it is safe or lose patience) right as it starts to get colder. If we feel that we don't have the stomach to stay in lockdown until a vaccine is found, then we should start relaxing in the summer.

I don't disagree with either of these. It might be the best course of action. We have 2 months to gather good data to try and figure it out.


SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Only upgraded from 1 to a 2 because our area appears to have had it's first business owner suicide today.

The associated deaths of that sort that won't end up counted in the tally - but should - give me elevated concern.

[tarcone]

Kids are missing school. Which is good. I think they come back in the Fall with a better appreciation of why it is important.
I have gone to a 4. I went 1 to a 3 to a 4. Im not freaking out. But its still early.

[Glengoyne]

I went 4, because the current predictions from the White House are suitably vague with regard to time frame, and I don't think we're anywhere close to the end of this.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Jesus, has this person procreated?

Sadly, yes.