Werewolf CXXXIII - The Dark Knight - MOBSTERS WIN

[hoopsguy]

If we had managed the Dent thing well today we could have been in a pretty strong starting position. All in all, not bad (besides losing good posters) but not as good as we could/should be right now.

[Autumn]

"Well, that was good fun. It was so nice of all of you to join in my game. When it comes to killing, everybody voted. That's better than the presidential race! Maybe they can learn a thing or two from us Gothamites.

"But you know how you get so excited for something and then it happens and it's never quite as good as you anticipated? That's kind of how I feel. Sure when you blow someone up you have a moment of giddiness, but then it fades. I think maybe it's because I still had to do the dirty work. You folks probably still don't even consider yourselves bad people. 'Let the clown do it, he likes it.'

"Bah. Today we'll play a different game. I'll keep it simple for you. I want you to kill J23. You don't even have to arrest anybody tomorrow, just kill him. Do that and I'll be happy, you'll be happy ... well J23 won't be happy, but you can't make an omelet without breaking a few legs my grandma used to say.

"Of course if you don't play my game ... well I still get to have fun. It's like Russian Roulette, but the best part is I don't die. You do!"

Joker has a new game today. He insists that you lynch J23. If you do, J23 will be killed (removed from the game just as in a regular lynch, the 'kill' is flavor). Your job's done. If you lynch anyone else, or lynch no one, the Joker will get to kill a random player. Have fun!

[CrimsonFox]

It's night 2 and I'm not in the game. It's just as if I had signed up!

[J23]

I think you just made a few people happy to vote for me again Danny.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Allow me to follow up on this thought. It's 9:59. It's highly unlikely anyone will read it in time when many posts are getting slapped up there. Why post it at all? Why not just do it?

I had been trying to catch up on the 2+ pages of posts in the 10 minutes before deadline and threw it out there since I knew it was close. I didn't think of voting for myself at the time unfortunately.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Danny

I text myself all the time

Stop that! You'll go blind!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Stop that! You'll go blind!

That's how I got these scars

[Autumn]

I'm going to be out for most of tomorrow during the work day. Hopefully everything is clear. If I get a chance I'll check PMs before I leave in the morning, so PM me any questions.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm going to be out for most of tomorrow during the work day. Hopefully everything is clear. If I get a chance I'll check PMs before I leave in the morning, so PM me any questions.

Don't worry, if they have any questions, I will fill them in

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chubby

so let's delve into you a little then...

Maroni being the head of the mob should be the most powerful, correct?

If I was also mob as you claim, would I not sacrifice myself to keep the more powerful mob boss in the game?

when I get whacked tonight, let us all ponder that

I have to admit there is some logic here

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I was certainly getting a good non-uber paranoid vibe off of him. Going to call it a night, will be back in the morning.

Me too, I had him strongly in my trust circle on Day 2. As much as you can be I suppose.

[MrBug708]

Well good job on Mauboy. Sorry I missed the vote, I forgot to come back and vote before my sisters engagement party and then had to rush out and drive to San Diego.

[CrimsonFox]

Happy Birthday Narcizo! I think that counts as a "killed on your birthday".
You join the club.

[Abe Sargent]

Happy b-day!!!

[Chubby]

waiting on dzilla's response.

right now i'm all for dzilla or danny as my vote.

work same as yesterday, will be there til 4pm est but home for lunch break to hopefully catch up

[dzilla77]

Originally Posted by Chubby

waiting on dzilla's response.

right now i'm all for dzilla or danny as my vote.

work same as yesterday, will be there til 4pm est but home for lunch break to hopefully catch up

If you want to vote me for lynch, go for it.

As for you trying to "save" Mau, not sure how you could have done that, especially as you had only one vote and left it on no kill (I think).

What is your justification for me as mob - except that I am suspicious of you?

The real question for Gotham is do we want one lynch (J23) or two someone else and a random?

[The Jackal]

See, while the Joker is being somewhat distracting, we've used his game to our benefit thus far. This is why I wasn't in a rush to sacrifice Batman to get rid of him.. there will be time for taking him out later. I imagine his games might get worse for us as things progress, but we can take it a day at a time.

I voted for J yesterday mostly because of his hardline on a nokill vote and his related posts. I was getting a similar vibe off him that I had on Chubby day one, except I felt it more likely Chubby was a villager. I don't know how much to read into the fact that Danny picked J - I don't think he has any real info on who mobsters are, that he played his gut with mau/chubby and wanted to see how we'd react.

That all being said, I haven't come to a decision yet. I still believe random kills aren't going to benefit us, so I'll be leaning towards voting J, however it would likely waste a day of vote history. What's more important, vote history and a random kill or no vote history and no random kill? At least we have some stuff to look at from yesterday with bhlloy.

[The Jackal]

7 players between 39 and 232 posts, and 10 under 30. UTR much!

[Danny]

Sorry, I will try and post more

[The Jackal]

So pretty much, case against J -

He was up against bhlloy at the latter part of the day and didn't quite generate enough momentum to overtake him, even with bhlloy's late reveal.

He was campaigning for a nokill text because he believed that there was a strong chance nothing would happen because of how the movie went.

D1 he put a second vote on Danny when mau (known wolf) had 5 (though it was basically a doublepost with Tyrith) and zinto had 4.

Not exactly the strongest case to be a villager, but I'm willing to listen to people's thoughts.

[Danny]

You forgot that he smells bad

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Danny

You forgot that he smells bad

Did you share a commode in Arkham?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Did you share a commode in Arkham?

Yes, but then the people at Arkham deemed me to unstable for the joint

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chubby

so let's delve into you a little then...

Maroni being the head of the mob should be the most powerful, correct?

If I was also mob as you claim, would I not sacrifice myself to keep the more powerful mob boss in the game?

when I get whacked tonight, let us all ponder that

This seems a little specious to me. I don't really read the lore information as say Maroni was significantly more powerful than any of the other mobsters. It certainly seems reasonable that he might have had a special ability that the other ones didn't, but I doubt it would be worth trading a second wolf for - very few abilities are.

[hoopsguy]

I don't think J23 says "go ahead and vote me instead of revealed players so you can sort it out tomorrow" as a wolf. I think if we go the J23 route that we will find ourselves down one more villager.

I'm also leery about continuing to play into the Joker's scenarios - the write-up last night certainly wasn't complimentary of us for playing along, even though it did net us a mobster.

[Tyrith]

Anyway, result on the whole seems okay - I always like it when I'm right, even if it's pretty much by luck. I'm going to have to look at the vote pattern to see where I would go from here - off the top of my head, unless I missed something, I'm not seeing why Chubby is particularly in the clear here, along with about half the people in the game from the way the voting went down after I left.

On the whole I'm hesitant to keep playing The Joker's games - I'm wondering if, by playing along with one game, we aren't allowing him to get to play another. Although his game clearly didn't hurt us yesterday. Just not while about the concept of getting our seer or BG randomly killed off on D3 - while it's not particularly likely, there are some scenarios that could leave us in a not so hot spot. Ultimately, though, if J23 is one of the best candidates I'll probably just add another stain to my soul and do it.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't think J23 says "go ahead and vote me instead of revealed players so you can sort it out tomorrow" as a wolf. I think if we go the J23 route that we will find ourselves down one more villager.

I'm also leery about continuing to play into the Joker's scenarios - the write-up last night certainly wasn't complimentary of us for playing along, even though it did net us a mobster.

Yeah, my first instinct is pretty much exactly this, but I didn't read the endgame of yesterday closely enough yet to know for sure.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yeah, my first instinct is pretty much exactly this, but I didn't read the endgame of yesterday closely enough yet to know for sure.

You all feel like monsters for playing along in my game, you also deep down want to continue playing it. You like the chaos. You deep down in the bottom of your soul, know you truly are a monster and you yearn to continue letting that part of you out, even if just a little.

[Tyrith]

Yeah, with as many votes as J23 had at the time, he doesn't pull that post, even at 857, as anything other than a vanilla. Don't blame him for not figuring out that he could vote to lynch himself fast enough - doesn't look like there was a lot of time there. But he still put himself at pretty significant risk, with as many people as appear to have been in the thread at that point.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This seems a little specious to me. I don't really read the lore information as say Maroni was significantly more powerful than any of the other mobsters. It certainly seems reasonable that he might have had a special ability that the other ones didn't, but I doubt it would be worth trading a second wolf for - very few abilities are.

This is probably my speculation as well.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Danny

You all feel like monsters for playing along in my game, you also deep down want to continue playing it. You like the chaos. You deep down in the bottom of your soul, know you truly are a monster and you yearn to continue letting that part of you out, even if just a little.

Would you mind letting me taking it out by blowing your head off? I promise it'll tear me up on the inside and make me just like you.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Would you mind letting me taking it out by blowing your head off? I promise it'll tear me up on the inside and make me just like you.

come get me big boy

[hoopsguy]

Looks like even this game is not immune to the slow Friday disease.

I've got about an hour before I need to get going for work, and I don't think I'll be around much until the last 1-2 hours before deadline. So time to do some vote analysis ... we've got stuff to work with from Day 1 and Day 2 with mauboy as a mobster.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Day One

#82 Mon 14:01 JAG votes ntndeacon (1)
#92 Mon 14:44 Narcizo votes mauboy (1)
#159 06:31 Hoopsguy votes MrBug (1)
#201 09:22 Packer votes Mauboy (2)
#253 11:23 ntndeacon votes MrBug (2)
#281 12:57 Zinto votes ntndeacon (2)
#289 13:23 bhlloy votes Mauboy (3)
#291 13:39 MrBug votes Mauboy (4)


#302 14:47 Thomkal votes Danny (1)
#316 15:21 mauboy votes ntndeacon (3)
#321 15:28 Lathum votes Zinto (1)
#339 16:28 Narcizo unvotes mauboy (3)
#339 16:28 Narcizo votes Bhlloy (1)
#342 16:50 JAG unvotes ntndeacon (2)
#342 16:50 JAG votes Bhlloy (2)
#348 16:56 ntndeacon unvotes MrBug (1)
#348 16:56 ntndeacon votes Zinto (2)


#360 18:02 Darth Vilus votes mauboy (4)
#363 18:16 Jackal votes Zinto (3)
#371 18:39 dzilla votes Zinto (4)
#385 19:03 mckerney votes mauboy (5)
#389 19:08 Abe votes Narcizo (1)
#391 19:10 Chief votes No Lynch (1)
#409 19:35 Chubby votes Danny (2)
#411 19:41 Tyrith votes mauboy (6)
#412 19:41 J23 votes Danny (3)


#434 20:10 Bhlloy unvotes mauboy (5)
#434 20:10 Bhlloy votes Danny (4)
#445 20:29 Zinto invalid vote for Danny
#478 21:48 Hoops unvotes MrBug (0)
#478 21:48 Hoops votes Bhlloy (3)
#483 21:49 mauboy unvotes ntndeacon (1)
#483 21:49 mauboy votes zinto (5)
#508 21:59 Danny votes Danny (5)
#509 21:59 mauboy unvotes zinto (4)
#509 21:59 mauboy votes Danny (6)


1 ntn - zinto (281)
5 mauboy - packerfanatic (201), mrbug708 (291), darth vilus (360), mckerney (385), tyrith (411)
6 danny - thomkal (302), J23 (412), bhlloy (434), chubby (514), danny (508), mauboy (509)
4 zinto - lathum (321), ntndeacon (348), the jackal (363), dzilla7 (371)
3 bhlloy - narcizo (339), JAG (342), hoopsguy (478)
1 narcizo - abe sargent (389)
1 no lynch - chief rum (391)

I'll be referencing this for Day 1, even though Danny has suggested there were some missed votes in here. But with the chaos of that day, I just don't have time to go make up my own and still get stuff posted in the next few minutes.

[mckerney]

Nice to get a mobster, but it looks like as long as the Joker is around we could be losing villagers at a pretty rapid pace. Not sure what we can do about it now other than find the mobsters and quickly as we can though.

[hoopsguy]

Updated Narcizo's voting post with my own comments and initial trust/distrust vibes from Day 1. Going to see if I can find something for Day 2 to do the same. If not, I'm not going to be around long enough to put one together but hope someone might.

#82 Mon 14:01 JAG votes ntndeacon (1) - known good casting vote
#92 Mon 14:44 Narcizo votes mauboy (1) - known good casting vote on known bad
#159 06:31 Hoopsguy votes MrBug (1)
#201 09:22 Packer votes Mauboy (2) - 2nd vote on known bad seems like an early trust indicator
#253 11:23 ntndeacon votes MrBug (2)
#281 12:57 Zinto votes ntndeacon (2)
#289 13:23 bhlloy votes Mauboy (3) - known good voting on known bad
#291 13:39 MrBug votes Mauboy (4) - pile-onto known bad


#302 14:47 Thomkal votes Danny (1) -
#316 15:21 mauboy votes ntndeacon (3) - picked NTN over Bug, other person with 2 votes
#321 15:28 Lathum votes Zinto (1)
#339 16:28 Narcizo unvotes mauboy (3)
#339 16:28 Narcizo votes Bhlloy (1) - known good introduces known good as candidate
#342 16:50 JAG unvotes ntndeacon (2)
#342 16:50 JAG votes Bhlloy (2) - known good builds that candidate up
#348 16:56 ntndeacon unvotes MrBug (1)
#348 16:56 ntndeacon votes Zinto (2)


#360 18:02 Darth Vilus votes mauboy (4) - pushes Mau back in front by two
#363 18:16 Jackal votes Zinto (3) - new 2nd candidate to oppose wolf, passing by NTN
#371 18:39 dzilla votes Zinto (4) - would like to know if Zinto is good, because his voters sure seem like place to start looking today
#385 19:03 mckerney votes mauboy (5) - another pretty good vote pushing Mau to front
#389 19:08 Abe votes Narcizo (1)
#391 19:10 Chief votes No Lynch (1)
#409 19:35 Chubby votes Danny (2)
#411 19:41 Tyrith votes mauboy (6) - mauboy sure got a lot of traction
#412 19:41 J23 votes Danny (3)


#434 20:10 Bhlloy unvotes mauboy (5) - in hindsight, a very unfortuante unvote by villager away from wolf
#434 20:10 Bhlloy votes Danny (4)
#445 20:29 Zinto invalid vote for Danny
#478 21:48 Hoops unvotes MrBug (0)
#478 21:48 Hoops votes Bhlloy (3) - pushing bhlloy back into mix when he was out of it
#483 21:49 mauboy unvotes ntndeacon (1)
#483 21:49 mauboy votes zinto (5) - switches vote, self-defense but Joker was an option and he went to Zinto. I'm leaning towards Zinto good based on vote analysis here.
#508 21:59 Danny votes Danny (5)
#509 21:59 mauboy unvotes zinto (4)
#509 21:59 mauboy votes Danny (6) - switches it to Danny to preserve himself


1 ntn - zinto (281)
5 mauboy - packerfanatic (201), mrbug708 (291), darth vilus (360), mckerney (385), tyrith (411)
6 danny - thomkal (302), J23 (412), bhlloy (434), chubby (514), danny (508), mauboy (509)
4 zinto - lathum (321), ntndeacon (348), the jackal (363), dzilla7 (371)
3 bhlloy - narcizo (339), JAG (342), hoopsguy (478)
1 narcizo - abe sargent (389)
1 no lynch - chief rum (391)

Day 1 Trust:
Group A - Packer, MrBug, Darth, mckerney, Tyrith - all had meaningful votes on Mauboy in a race that was close throughout.
Group B - NTN and Zinto were targeted by Mauboy votes when he was in front, so I'm not inclined to rush towards voting for those two either.


Day 1 Distrust:
Group A - Lathum, NTN, Jackal, dzilla - all Zinto voters, and I didn't see logic for this candidate as compared to Danny
Group B - Abe, Chief Rum - both had "purpose votes" in a race that ended up very tight. They didn't actively save mau, but they didn't help bury him either. Effectively sat out of what was a meaningful vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

6 Bhlloy - Narcizo (626), PackerFan (787), Lathum (895), Darth Vilus (898), Danny (949), mauboy1 (964)
5 Danny - J23 (661), mckerney (683), chubby (707), Thomkal (886), bhlloy (893)
5 J23 - Abe Sargent (726), The Jackal (812), dzilla77 (890), zinto (948), hoopsguy (965)
2 Mauboy1 - Tyrith (772), ntndeacon (838)

This is what I have, I would appreciate triplechecking.

Vote counts, but not vote/unvote stuff.

The unknown guys on bhlloy at the end are PF, Lathum, Darth. Not sure which of those guys were around at the deadline - I know over half the game was, but not which player specifically were.

First instinct is to vote Lathum here, but I don't really like voting for him early in games without having a moderately strong inkling he is a wolf. So far, my vibe on him is more "uninvolved" than "mobster".

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I've got NTN in both categories above - I'll sit on trust for him over distrust at this time. I think the trust reason is stronger.

[mauchow]

Hi. Padding my post count while reading up.

/danny

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll be referencing this for Day 1, even though Danny has suggested there were some missed votes in here. But with the chaos of that day, I just don't have time to go make up my own and still get stuff posted in the next few minutes.

There several, perhaps dozens of missed votes in here

[hoopsguy]

OK, looking at the candidates for D2 I think we were "Joker/Dent/villager" - so I would have expected the wolves to split their votes up among the 3 candidates while hoping (if they were active in last 20 minutes) that Dent still bought the farm.

Post-reveal action on Bhlloy is from Joker + Mobster. Narcizo is dead villager. So PF/Lathum/DV seem like a decent pool to look at today.

I don't see a way to thin the herd on the Danny or J23 voters - Thomkal is the only Danny voter that I don't have some slightly elevated trust for, so he would be who I would be most likely to vote for out of this group if I had to. J23 voters are a different story, as I think that is a more sketchy group based on Day 1 stuff.

Having to get something in early, I'm deliberating between Lathum, Jackal, and dzilla. Time to pull up the text votes and see where they fell on Chubby/Mau vote.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Nice to get a mobster, but it looks like as long as the Joker is around we could be losing villagers at a pretty rapid pace. Not sure what we can do about it now other than find the mobsters and quickly as we can though.

So far I handed you a mobster and this is the thanks I get? Perhaps it shall be Mckerney playing in my next game

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

There several, perhaps dozens of missed votes in here

And in all seriousness, I want to see those votes because they impact vote totals when people made moves. I just am out of time this morning.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

11 Mauboy - narcizo (626), chief rum (722), lathum (753), ntndeacon (777), mrbug708 (795), the jackal (811), bhlloy (912), dzilla77 (926), thomkal (937), hoopsguy (958), abe sargent (961)
7 Chubby - mckerney (663), PackerFan (787), darth vilus (866), Tyrith (876), J23 (945), zinto (948), mauboy (964)
1 No Kill - Chubby (627)

This is what I have for texts.

OK, so all of my leading suspects for wolves have their text vote on the wolf. Perfect.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And in all seriousness, I want to see those votes because they impact vote totals when people made moves. I just am out of time this morning.

I was only referring to my constant unvotes / votes

[hoopsguy]

dzilla had his mauboy text vote in the latest, and from a vibe standpoint has been the one who seems most "off" in terms of villager play. Just hard to make reads on a guy who I don't think I've played with before ...

Lathum had his Mauboy text vote in early. Jackal had his in pre-reveal. I'll try to do some more post/vote analysis later tonight if I'm online in time but for now:

VOTE DZILLA77

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

dzilla had his mauboy text vote in the latest, and from a vibe standpoint has been the one who seems most "off" in terms of villager play. Just hard to make reads on a guy who I don't think I've played with before ...

Lathum had his Mauboy text vote in early. Jackal had his in pre-reveal. I'll try to do some more post/vote analysis later tonight if I'm online in time but for now:

VOTE DZILLA77

This is a mistake, you will have the chance to go after Zilla tomorrow, today you need to vote J23

[mckerney]

QUOTE=Abe Sargent;2479146]I have to admit there is some logic here[/quote]

Not sure I follow it, didn't Chubby try early to get people to go no kill and save both of them? And I'm not sure what he could have done later on to sacrifice himself without looking too obvious.

[Tyrith]

hoops, all the "missed votes" are just Danny playing his follow the leader game, or people unvoting and revoting for the same people in the same post because they were trying to get Danny to play his follow the leader game.

[Chief Rum]

Had a busy night last night and frankly forgot I hadn't put in a vote for the lynch. Sorry folks.

Heh...I have a no kill vote for Day One, and a no vote for Day Two. That probably doesn't bode well for me.

What should show good for me, though, is that I put in that earlymauboy1 text kill vote and never changed. I hope that counts for something.

FWIW, I do not think we should play the Joker's game today. We need to see if he has the random kill ability that is claimed. The Joker is a friend to neither the mob nor the village. He helped the village yesterday. Does anyone want to take odds he'll do so again today?