WW - The Princess Bride (Game Over - Wolves Win)

[JAG]

Bah.

[EagleFan]

The morning has arrived. You see that someone is missing. A head count reveals that Danny is missing. You search for him and find that he has been brutally slashed through the heart.

Danny was Westley, though Westley seems to look different than you thought he did when the game started.

Danny has achieved his primary victory condition which he was given at the start of the game as he was the original Dread Pirate Roberts.

[Telle]

Sorry guys.. the wolves messed with my protection ability. There was nothing I could do to save Danny.

[EagleFan]

Day Five has begun.

Deadline will be Monday night.

[MrBug708]

Well there is that

[The Jackal]

wow.. that couldn't have been worse

[JAG]

Crap.

Ok, I'll have some time this weekend to look at things, but two things strategy-wise I don't understand:

1. Narcizo, if you're on the side of the village, why did you not give the cloak to Danny? I was hoping your chatter about it was a feint to make the wolves think you used the cloak when you had actually passed it to the seer (the most important villager).

2. Telle, hindsight is 20/20, but we knew Vizzini was in the game because Danny didn't have a scan for us the night before and with EagleFan's update to the rules. If you hadn't revealed, the wolves wouldn't have known who the BG was and Danny could've gotten another scan in. Worst case if you got lynched, we would've at least cleared another person with Danny's scan, but even then there was a 50-50 shot you would've survived with the powder. When you revealed, unfortunately that freed the wolves to pull the move they did, plus tonight, unless we find and lynch Vizzini today, he'll just disrupt you again and the wolves will off you.

Anyway, I apologize if I'm coming off overly critical of people with a challenging rule set, I'm just upset we lost our seer when there so many means available for his protection.

[Telle]

If I was lynched, how would Danny have gotten another scan off? Obviously he would have been night killed without any protection. So, 50/50 chance that we either lose both the seer and the bodyguard in one night or lose neither... or 100% chance that we lose the seer. So yeah, maybe I shouldn't have revealed.. but it's not as clear-cut as you make it.

[The Jackal]

I think he was saying that if you were lynched without revealing, the wolves wouldn't have known ahead of time that you were the BG and therefore likely wouldn't have had a kill order in on Danny.

[Telle]

If I was lynched my role would have been revealed, and thus they'd know the bodyguard was gone. The only way Danny doesn't get night killed is if I don't reveal AND I win the "battle of wits".

[The Jackal]

When I first read the rules I read Vizzini as only being able to steal the ability once, since it says "for a day". But it seems like that might not be the case, which is powerful. But Westley had a chance to block himself, plus the option of the holocaust cloak. If Danny hadn't Dread Pirate Robertsed Narc (and Telle hadn't been forced to reveal) we might've been able to get 4 scans before the wolves could've gotten him. So I guess it could have gone a lot differently.

[EagleFan]

A Redskins fan? Redskins?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Telle

If I was lynched my role would have been revealed, and thus they'd know the bodyguard was gone. The only way Danny doesn't get night killed is if I don't reveal AND I win the "battle of wits".

Yes but aren't the lynch and action deadlines the same? I don't think the wolves would have been able to change a kill order post-lynch after seeing you were the BG. I'm not arguing against your reveal here, just trying to explain what I think JAG was saying.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

A Redskins fan? Redskins?

Hey, I grew up in Maryland. Flyers are my #1 team, but I'll always be a Skins fan. That being said because of liking the Flyers this long I don't hate the eagles at all. That's all reserved for the cowboys.

[Telle]

Oh ok, yeah they happen at the same time. So he could have potentially gotten one more scan off, IF they didn't decide to target him regardless.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's all reserved for the cowboys.

That we can agree on.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

That we can agree on.

Heck, even I can agree with that one

[The Jackal]

Probably done posting for now, I won't be around much this weekend but will try and check in some to see what's being discussed.

[Danny]

I still won, later suckers!

[CrimsonFox]

darnit. I had a feeling. BUt my feelings have sucked lately. Sorry ntn. Enjoyed your performance this game. Liked the new talkative playful version of ntn. Would like to see him more often.

[CrimsonFox]

gee what next can happen. I guess DV could come back as an overpowered indestructible character again. And who doesn't love that.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

gee what next can happen. I guess DV could come back as an overpowered indestructible character again. And who doesn't love that.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Yes but aren't the lynch and action deadlines the same? I don't think the wolves would have been able to change a kill order post-lynch after seeing you were the BG. I'm not arguing against your reveal here, just trying to explain what I think JAG was saying.

That was my point exactly, yes. Worst case, we would've lynched our BG which means Danny would've died the next day anyway, but in the meantime he might've scanned another wolf for us or at least given us another cleared person and the wolves wouldn't get the iocane powder. Middle case, the 50-50 iocane powder ends up with ntn getting lynched and Telle exposed, which means we're in the same situation as now except with an extra scan and without the wolves having a chance to acquire the iocane powder. Best case, ntn gets lynched without Telle having to reveal at all.

In retrospect, it would've probably been better if Danny had revealed as being Westley day 3, then we could've set up the next five nights of protection as BG --- cloak --- BG --- self-protect --- BG.

Anyway, that's all in the past at this point, so I'm going to leave it behind and focus on finding the rest of the wolves.

[Autumn]

Chances that Fezzik isn't in the game and Telle fake revealed? I'm kind of flying in and so may be forgetting something which disproves that.

My theory so far has not worked, so I'm going to drop it. Now I need a new one.

[The Jackal]

I suppose it is theoretically possible that Fezzik isn't in the game, since Westley had a one-time BG power and there was another one in the holocaust cloak. But I think there's enough power on both sides that the BG being around makes sense.

[The Jackal]

If someone wants to repost/update vote charts sometime today that'd be super. I can do it later this afternoon, but heading to brunch shortly.

[JAG]

We still seem to be reasonably well-placed. I'm going to assume Narcizo is really on our side as a neutral player as I think Danny would've warned us if this wasn't the case. At this point we have:

Cleared villagers:
11) Narcizo (neutral but presumed on villager side)
13) CrimsonFox
15) Telle

Cannot be Count Rugen, but could be any remaining wolf:
10) Lathum
14) MrBug708

Could be any remaining wolf:
6) The Jackal
7) mauboy1
8) Autumn
16) JAG

CF can clear one more person in the 'Could be any remaining wolf' group as not being Rugen which gives us a very small pool of places he can be hiding, one of three people, and unless he cleared me I've got a 50-50 shot of getting him, same as the other villager in the three left. And that's not to say that there couldn't be another wolf in that mix as well (which would further clear Bug and Lathum), so I think focusing on that group will give us our best odds at hitting a wolf today.

[EagleFan]

Through a twist of fate, Darth has returned to the game as a fire breating dragon. It will take 5 night kill attempts to kill him and his lynch vote is worth 12 votes. He may also perform 2 night kills per night. He has one winning condition and that is to kill everyone.


Edit: forgot to add

[Autumn]

Thanks for that JAG, that seems a breakdown that everyone should be able to get behind. Unless we get some proof of Telle blocking somebody I'm going to leave her in the 'hope she's good' category, but I don't want to forget that the wolves know one role that's not in the game.

I agree though, we get a clear from CF, and then vote between the three remaining. That should give us a good shot, and good vote history.

[EagleFan]

Wait, what is that sound? It is the Buill Moose Special, medeival edition. A crash of thunder is heard, a streak of lightning bolts forth from it and strikes down the hideous beast that is now Darth. He falls to the ground dead again. So much for that role.

[EagleFan]

Sorry, just entertaining myself.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Chances that Fezzik isn't in the game and Telle fake revealed? I'm kind of flying in and so may be forgetting something which disproves that.

My theory so far has not worked, so I'm going to drop it. Now I need a new one.

I figured if Westley died last night, it was because Telle was the real BG and Vizzini would target her and remove his protection (this is why I was urging the real BG not to come forward if Telle was lying, we could've lynched her today and gotten Danny's scan when the BG wouldn't have been able to protect him anyway). Also, from a meta standpoint, I find it hard to believe in a Princess Bride game there wouldn't be a Fezzik (especially if there's a Vizzini, like I would be surprised if there wasn't a Princess if there's a Humperdink).

One sec, checking the rules...

There's nothing in there about wolves knowing roles that aren't in the game. So while you could be right (and I hadn't really considered it after Danny died), it seems like a pretty unlikely theory.

[Autumn]

I'm 100% sure EF said that the wolves would be told one, and only one, role that was not in the game.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Roles

- The number of players that sign up will determine what roles are used.
- If there are unused roles the wolves will be told of one role that is not in the game.
- Only roles which are published in the roles posting will be in the game, no hidden roles (there may be hidden win conditions).

Relevant section bolded.

[JAG]

Oops, not sure how I missed that. Alright, well that changes things some. I'd still think not having the BG in the game and telling the wolves that would be rather overpowering, as well as reduce the point of Vizzini's role, but I'll modify the above list with that in mind.

Cleared villagers:
11) Narcizo (neutral but presumed on villager side)
13) CrimsonFox

Unknown claiming unchallenged role:
15) Telle

Cannot be Count Rugen, but could be any remaining wolf:
10) Lathum
14) MrBug708

Could be any remaining wolf:
6) The Jackal
7) mauboy1
8) Autumn
16) JAG

[JAG]

Reposting D1-D3 from CF's post with updates, for simplicity's sake I'm using Narcizo and Danny as villager colors and Telle as green:

Day One

Darth Vilus 9 - Autumn (98), Narcizo (102), Passacaglia (170), Chief Rum (190), Telle (201), mauboy1 (221), The Jackal (223), bhlloy (225), PackerFanatic (226)
bhlloy 5 - Lathum (138), ntndeacon (165), JAG (196), Danny (199), Darth Vilus (217)
Narcizo 1 - MrBug 708 (192)

Day Two


MrBug708 2 - Chief Rum (328), PackerFanatic (334)
The Jackal 2 - mauboy1 (277), MrBug708 (344)
ntndeacon 2 - Narcizo (305), Danny (376)
PackerFanatic 1 - Passacaglia (349)
Chief Rum 2 - ntndeacon (311), Telle (372)
Telle 1 - Autumn (371)

No Vote before reveal: Lathum, Crimson Fox, JAG, Jackal


Day Three

Chief Rum 4 - ntndeacon (486), Telle (556), Autumn (613), CrimsonFox (636)
ntndeacon 5 - The Jackal (464), Lathum (574), Chief Rum (581), MrBug708 (610), Danny (665)
Mrbug708 3 - Narcizo (567), mauboy1 (594), JAG (653)

Jackal, bhlloy, and I voted CR (villager) D1 as well, but unvoted him. I don't have D4 in front of me, but I believe the only ones receiving votes were ntn (villager), Telle (presumed villager), and myself (villager to me, unknown to you). The only days we may have put any pressure on the wolves at all was Day 2 and 3, depending on Bug and Jackal's allegiance.

Out for a while now, will be back on when I can.

[Autumn]

This is what I have for day four, I think:

cf votes ntn
danny votes ntn
cf unvotes ntn
cf votes telle
lathum votes autumn
jackal votes ntn
autumn votes ntn
danny unvotes ntn
danny votes telle
lathum unvotes autumn
lathum votes telle
mauboy votes ntn
ntn votes telle
ntn unvotes telle
cf unvotes telle
cf votes jag
lahtum unvotes telle
lathum votes ntn
ntn votes jag
mrbug votes telle
mrbug unvotes telle
telle votes ntn
mrbug votes jag
jag votes natn
cf unvotes jag
cf votes ntn

[Autumn]

It's too bad that half the unknowns didn't get a vote on day 2 before the scan result. Makes it hard to read that day, which could be a very useful one.

Basically mr. bug and jackal are the only non-cleared players to receive votes in the game. if they're both villagers vote history hardly means anything.

[The Jackal]

This is tough. There were seemingly no wolves on the block D1, between DV, bhlloy, CR, Narcizo. Did anyone else get 2-3 votes that day? Seems like the wolves could've placed their votes anywhere, which is a big advantage to them.

I'm probably leaning towards the "non-rugen" group at this point as well.

Bug: I realize people have said they've had decent feelings about him, but I find his style of play very tough to read. D1 he had an outlying vote, D2 he put a fly-by on me, D3 he was up against two villagers and survived, D4 he wasn't really around, voted telle before catching up with the thread, which could be seen as a non-wolfy move but also could've been planned, and settled on JAG, which is a vote we don't know how to judge yet.

Autumn: Early D1 vote on DV. had a vote on Telle D2 before the Narc reveal, I'm still assuming Telle is good at this point but I won't put too much of a negative on that right now, since Telle fit into my suspect group as well D2. D3 ended up on CR, but most of us voted for a villager unless bug is bad. D4 votes NTN. As to play style, can't say I detect anything out of the normal. Know he's a good player in general, so I don't let that push me either way.

JAG: Has been more quiet than I'm used to seeing, though I think he said that was going to be the case this game. D1 on bhlloy, D2 didn't have a vote out before the reveal, D3 ended up on bug and i'm not quite sure why. I need to go back and look at that reasoning. D4 had some heat on him but it was clear NTN was going down.

Me: I'm happy to make a case for myself but I figure I'll let others have the chance to do it first.

Plenty of time to go through and analyze the votes and vote times more closely as the weekend goes on. Have to let my gut ruminate also and see if it's strong enough on anyone to make that a deciding factor. It's tough because all of our votes can be explained as villager or wolf votes since we know we haven't had a wolf up against it. Was hoping we'd get some more scans out of Danny here. He kinda screwed us over using his ability.. I don't blame him for it, since that was his win condition and he was neutral to start, but damn, turned out poorly.

[The Jackal]

I screwed that up, mixed up bug and mau as people that had been scanned by CF.

[The Jackal]

Might as well investigate mau and Lathum here now too, since they've gotta be considered.

[The Jackal]

these are just quick lookovers from the stuff JAG and autumn just posted and what i can remember..

mau: D1 on DV, D2 on me to test a danny/me wolf theory. obviously that was a good read on danny since he was purposefully playing weird as the DPR. D3 sits on bug, so we can't judge that yet. D4 NTN. seems a pretty standard game from mau. he hasn't caught much voting heat, caught some for his posts on D2 in reference to me/danny but that's not very relevant.

lathum: D1 on bhlloy, D2 no vote before reveal, D3 on NTN with me. Had a very interesting D4, going from autumn to telle to NTN. I rarely get a good read on lathum, though i've noticed he's usually a bit more out there when he is a villager, sorta making people think he's a wolf but then eventually we all decide he's acting too weird to be wolfish.

[Autumn]

CF ... people want to know ...

[EagleFan]

Watch the crops begin to grow.

[CrimsonFox]

want to know what? who I scanned? well SOMEBODY prevented me from getting in a scan last night. So no scan report today. Maybe tomorrow.

[Narcizo]

Meh! I worked out that Vizzini would be able to block Fezzik about 8 hours too late. Dunno why Danny wasted his self-protect on himself on day three. I actually presumed, as his powers were blocked that night, that he was lying about having used it and that he was saving it. I have no idea why he thought he was a likely attack target than me when the wolves had used their wheelbarrow on me. Oh well.

I've absolutely no idea who to vote. I have a feeling vote recordAs far as I feel at the moment I might as well roll a die and pick from that. I trust Telle and Crimson and after that I don't have a clue. We'd better hope that there were only three wolves to start otherwise I think we're pretty much screwed.

[Narcizo]

I'm so confused that my grammar fails.

[Narcizo]

So, in summing up, me finding a wolf on night one was pretty much the worst thing that could have happened to us. Go figure.

[Narcizo]

Oh and next week I'm on "holiday" by myself with the children so I won't be a omnipresent during your night-time as I usually am.

[Autumn]

Wait, does this make sense? Telle had someone mess with her protection ability and CF had someone mess with his scan? Im out of it, but is that possible? What happened?