Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves

[RPI-Fan]

VOTE KINGFC22

Best I can come up with for now (reasons are obvious, I think).

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

VOTE KINGFC22

Best I can come up with for now (reasons are obvious, I think).

Honestly...now is not the time for you to skimp on detail...id like to hear why you pick king over someone like mcsweeney, or how you even defend your own actions

[Blade6119]

Dola, since hes still around but hasnt replied ill go ahead and post this for now...tentative to change, but everything ive seen makes him my #1 suspect for now as ive stated:

VOTE RPI-FAN

[Raiders Army]

If there's one guy that I think is a villager other than me, it's Blade. I agree with him and I've thought RPI-Fan was pretty suspicious this entire game so far (looking back on it).

VOTE RPI-FAN

[hoopsguy]

Early vote count:

Kingfc - Dubb, RPI
Dubb - Barkeep
RPI - King, Blade, RA

I think there are three people who have, for whatever reason, elevated their "Suspect" status since the start of the game: King, RPI, and McSweeny. I'm pretty convinced that at least one of these guys is a wolf.

Dubb as a wolf is a little more worrisome for me, for a couple of reasons:
1. Because I don't have him near the top of my list
2. Because I've seen him change my mind before when I've had him on my list

In short, he is a guy that I've never had a good read on, game to game. That doesn't make him a wolf. It just makes me think I have to work harder on figuring him out.

[hoopsguy]

OK, starting to work on the circles of trust

COMPLETE:
None, except for the dead villagers.

HIGH TRUST:
St Cronin - Witness delivered wolf. Only concern is that there still appears to be a cursed. If cursed was not converted Night 1 then what the heck happened? Multiple cursed would explain this, but that feels like a stacked deck for wolves.

MEDIUM TRUST:
Blade - I think this is the best game I have seen him play so far. He is always public, but I like his analysis more than previous games. I think he is doing a good job of drawing people out (including me) which only helps the villager cause.

Mr Wednesday - partly because he started with a slight trust edge coming in as a replacement player for Schmidty; I don't think people like to relinquish their bad-guy roles. Partly because he hasn't given me any cause to suspect him yet. Active poster, works through scenarios rather than rushing to vote.

[hoopsguy]

With yesterday's vote being a runaway, I think we have to return to the Day 1 vote to see what we can pick up in terms of voting tendencies. I know that Day 1 sucks and that people are flying blind, but it was a close vote with late action that removed a key villager from the board. Without further information to draw from today, this is likely where my tie-breaker vote would come from between two compelling candidates for lynch.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

i cant imagine a sitaution where someone was blessed and hasnt come forward...what possibly would be the point? Bar it being king, which they wouldnt have killed anyways....killing fozzie makes me think their targeting the supposedly smarter players first(meaning im never dying )...that makes me inclined to think someone like hoopsguy, sackattack, or ardent went...

Hmmmm, ardent said he liked my train of thought....somethings wrong there...

The blessed and the cursed don't know they are such until after they're attacked.

[hoopsguy]

Post Summaries:

Post #255, 76 minutes prior to Day 1 deadline:
SnDvls (now a hung wolf) says we are barking up wrong tree with both Pass and RPI. Vote stays with Sir Fozzie (now a dead villager, probable cupid).

Post #256, 76 minutes prior to Day 1 deadline:
Barkeep agrees with SnDvls (wolf), takes vote off Pass (herbalist) and puts it on McSweeny by virtue of him already having votes.

Post #257, 72 minutes prior to Day 1 deadline:
StC falls in line with SnDvls (wolf), changes vote from Pass (herbalist) to Sir Fozzie (villager, probable cupid). Very amusing re-reading this post after seeing the following day showdown between StC and SnD.

Post #276, 34 minutes prior to Day 1 deadline:
Sir Fozzie unvotes SnDvls (wolf), changes vote to Pass (herbalist)

Post #284, 8 minutes prior to deadline:
Pass unvotes RPI, votes McSweeny

Post #285, 6 minutes prior to deadline:
McSweeny votes Pass (herbalist)


That covers the late action. Not as much info there as I hoped to gather with late switches.

Barkeep - makes a move that appears to be pro-villager at this point by removing vote from herbalist and moving it to an unknown entity.

St Cronin - similar to Barkeep, although his vote moved from herbalist to villager. Still, results-oriented thinking shows this to be positive.

Sir Fozzie's vote is terrible from results perspective, as he unvoted a wolf to lynch the herbalist. But he is dead so there is no reason to suspect him at this point.

Pass unvotes RPI, votes for McSweeny. We don't know what either of these two are at this point.

McSweeny moves his vote to Pass. Self preservation appears to be motive, although this works out very badly for the villagers.

[hoopsguy]

Post #335 has the final vote count from Day 1:

I have the votes as follows (went through it twice)

Passacaglia - RPI-Fan, Raiders Army, Sir Fozzie, McSweeny
McSweeny - dubb93, Barkeep49, Passacaglia
SirFozzie - SnDvls, st.cronin
RPI-Fan - Mr. Wednesday, Sack Attack
ardent enthusiast - hoopsguy

no votes (I warned you guys twice about the vote format, bold and all caps): Blade6119 (invalid vote format), kingfc22 (invalid vote format), pennywisesb

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

If there's one guy that I think is a villager other than me, it's Blade. I agree with him and I've thought RPI-Fan was pretty suspicious this entire game so far (looking back on it).

VOTE RPI-FAN

Doh. Too early in the morning. st. cronin is obviously a villager as well.

[Barkeep49]

I'll throw out my own very limited circle of trust:

Trust -- St. Cronin (The only reason to doubt him is if you believe SnDvls and he were both wolves. I don't think the wolves would have made that play)
High -- RPI (Has had too strange a game to be a wolf)
Medium -- Blade (His posts have seemed genuinely helpful)

Everyone else is either low or I'm unsure about. I think today's a crucial day: If we get a wolf, we're pretty much going to cruise. If we hit the seer or a lover we're in trouble.

[Poli]

I trust RPI myself. A loose cannon, I'll admit, but way too umm, out there to be a wolf, in my opinion.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I trust RPI myself. A loose cannon, I'll admit, but way too umm, out there to be a wolf, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that once the Day 1 "loose cannon" worked for him, why not play it to the hilt? If I were a wolf (and I was numerous times), I would put something out there and then looked to see if it worked. If it worked, I would work that angle until the cows came home.

I was very much willing to give him benefit of the doubt initially, but at this point I'm not going to give much leeway. Besides, there is also the thought that even if he's a villager he is also a loose cannon, which is something we don't really need at this point.

[pennywisesb]

Hey everyone, thats awesome we got a wolf with our votes. I have to work all day today, so won't have access until around 5:30 or so. Good job St. Cronin.

[st.cronin]

I honestly don't see much to go on here.

SnDvls (known wolf) defended pass and RPI, and voted for SirFozzie. I can explain the vote - obviously it is to the wolves advantage to lynch a villager. I can sort of explain defending pass - since he was outed as the herbalist, it was to the wolves advantage to lynch somebody else. I don't think I can explain defending RPI UNLESS RPI is a wolf.

So..

VOTE RPI-FAN

[hoopsguy]

With RPI having four votes at this point he appears to be the hot-button player for today.

The primary suspicion on him centers around his boisterous activity against Passacaglia on day 1. Obviously that looks bad now that it has been revealed that Pass was in fact the herbalist as he had indicated.

The primary defense for him centers around the idea that no one would stick their neck out that far on day 1 if they were in fact a wolf. A 1:1 trade for wolves doesn't make sense, even if it is to take out an important villager asset such as the herbalist.

St Cronin has now suggested that SnDvls may have been trying to protect RPI on day one by voting SirFozzie. In terms of that post, I think that the wolves would have wanted the villagers to do their dirty work for them by offing the herbalist. But if push came to shove the herbalist is a significant enough role that they would assume some risk in going after him. Clearly if there was a wolf voting for Pass that day it was not SnDvls, based on the voting records. A wolf would be willing to vote for a wolf if they felt like that would give them some ammunition for their defense late. But they would absolutely not want to start a bandwagon on their teammate. And there was some heat on RPI on Day 1. Perhaps that is why SnDvls tried to pull people away from both Pass and RPI? Certainly something to think about ...

RPI is one of the three remaining people who did vote for Pass on day one. The other two are Raiders Army and McSweeny. I'm going to look up when RPI and RA put their votes on Pass, as I know that McSweeny was the final vote right before the deadline. I think both were before the Herbalist reveal, but neither RPI or RA moved the votes after that point.

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 votes:
RPI - post #144 (initally posted pre-day 1 in post #131)
RA - post #160
Pass reveal - post #176

Pass made the reveal in mid/late afternoon when he was facing at least five votes already. In hindsight I can understand him being concerned about dying without being able to use his critical role. But we had very good participation that afternoon and I wish he had tried to argue his way out of the votes before doing the role reveal.

[hoopsguy]

Going through posts from SnDvls from Day 1, when he wasn't directly under attack, to see if there is any kind of pattern we can find.

Post #164 - casts vote for SirFozzie.
Analysis: Vote is for non-wolf, wolves killed Fozzie on Night 2 (SnDvls was no longer with wolves at this point)

Post #186 - no substance to post, names no one, reacts surprised to news of Pass as herbalist.
Analysis: Wolf would definitely be happy to know who herbalist is, they know Pass is not a wolf

Post #192 - 8 of 15 players online
Analysis: can not determine any value from this short post

Post #204 - Talks about previous time-travel game
Analysis: I've got nothing here

Post #226 - worries about seer reveal too early in game
Analysis: Obviously he wants to know who seer is, but no mentions of any other players here make this post pretty worthless as well

Post #255 - thinks we are heading wrong direction, that Pass and RPI showdown may in fact be two warring villagers
Analysis: He knows if this is the case. Cronin has already made the case that SnDvls could be trying to remove RPI from the fray. Even though the wolves can communicate, I don't expect that every move is in lockstep. People are online at different times and they don't wait to post until getting approval from each and every teammate.

Post #344 - St Cronin fingers SnDvls as a wolf. Everything after this is spin control, so I'll look at this in a separate post. At this point I think we spend more time on who he may be protecting than looking for who he is targeting.

St Cronin, as an FYI that is why some people choose to call out the wolves later in the day. It gives the wolves more time to create their story before you snap them off. Of course, it creates the danger of not having enough time to rally votes and adequately fend off the wolf counter-story. So there are plusses and minuses to both sides. I wouldn't go through this explanation except that you had asked for some general WW tips earlier in the thread ...

[st.cronin]

Let me also just point out that there is not much to go on. I'm just trying to work it out logically ... SnDvls said

Originally Posted by SnDvls

so many opinins. I think we're barking up the wrong tree with both Pass & RPI. Like has been said before the wolves are just loving this right now. Being a past baddie, I know when stuff like this happened we just sat back and watched. My gut says they're both good. I have to stick w/ SirFozzie only because he hasn't posted much after acussing me of the same.

I'm out for the night. Let's hope we get a wolf and my gut is wrong on this one.

I may be parsing his words/motivations too closely ... but it looks to me like he's trying to get us to look somewhere other than at RPI.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

St Cronin, as an FYI that is why some people choose to call out the wolves later in the day. It gives the wolves more time to create their story before you snap them off. Of course, it creates the danger of not having enough time to rally votes and adequately fend off the wolf counter-story. So there are plusses and minuses to both sides. I wouldn't go through this explanation except that you had asked for some general WW tips earlier in the thread ...

I hadn't thought about that, but my initial feeling is that since the villagers are blind compared to the wolves, the most information soonest is to our advantage. But in the future I will consider the ramifications of that.

I can see that if I had kept my info close to the vest, SnDvls may have implicated another wolf or two.

[dubb93]

So with RPI jumping on my King vote early and King throwing out the first vote for RPI, is this what 2 wolves would do at this point?

I think they both felt like the pressure was on them and they had to act quick, even if it meant throwing another wolf under the fire. Looking at the actions last night it seems especially bad for RPI. I'm leaving my vote on King, but I'm very much confident that RPI is a baddy at this point as well.

The only reason I can see for RPI not giving an explanation for the King vote, is that in doing so he felt he may implicate himself.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So with RPI jumping on my King vote early and King throwing out the first vote for RPI, is this what 2 wolves would do at this point?

Why would 2 wolves put themselves as the center of attention right after they lost SnDvls?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The blessed and the cursed don't know they are such until after they're attacked.

Im refering to the no-kill night one...someone was attacked, either a blessed or cursed...if it wasa blessed, their still a villager and know it...thats why it had to be a cursed on night one

[kingfc22]

Right now all we really have to go on is Day 1. I've played the wolf role before and if someone claimed to be the bodyguard/herbalist I would want to make sure he was lynched that day. For starters the wolves know he is not one of them so there is a good chance this villager is trying to save his butt from the random day 1 lynch and telling the truth. If he is telling the truth, this gets rid of one of the key roles for the villagers and they are likely to get a couple of villager votes as well because we all think Pass is a wolf lying to save himself. Also if he is telling the truth, then that is one less night action that they have to worry about. If he is lying, it is still a villager and the wolves can live with that. RPI was the biggest cheerleader in trying to vote off Pass and that just seems like a wolf play to me. Maybe he is the brutal wolf and knows that when he is lynched he will take somebody with him?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Why would 2 wolves put themselves as the center of attention right after they lost SnDvls?

Thats the question and the only thing I can come up with that I haven't already mentioned is that I had already thrown the first stone at you and you knew that RPI was getting votes today regardless. Then once RPI came up wolf, who would be crazy enough to believe the guy that started the voting for RPI was also a wolf?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Wait just a minute here...



Either, the rules are miswritten, or st.cronin is pulling one over on us.

No one was killed last night, so the view was wasted.

UNVOTE SNDVLS

VOTE ST.CRONIN

Post #351...this is the big reason i have RPI #1...it came literally posts after Cronin revealed his witness status(but had yet to post PM), and everyone had agreed with it except for sun...it was RPI who went through the rules looking for a way to save sun and came up with the kill technicality that turned out to be wrong...i kinda figured it was wrong, but it got some support...but that post, the first one and most important post of day 2 in regards to suns defense makes him my top choice...

Thats my reasoning on this one...im open to any other ideas though

[Blade6119]

dola, and all his ranting to get the herbalist dead on day one

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

RPI is one of the three remaining people who did vote for Pass on day one. The other two are Raiders Army and McSweeny.

I will say this, was that i voted for pass too...i just did it in bad format and it didnt count...but you should add me to that list of people still alive that voted for him. And i can tell you i was the first to vote for him, and i started the bandwagon with my reasoning...that should be included in your analysis for the others to see

[Raiders Army]

RPI has been silent. Did I miss something where he wouldn't be on? If my head was in the noose, I'd at least defend myself.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

RPI has been silent. Did I miss something where he wouldn't be on? If my head was in the noose, I'd at least defend myself.

He should be around..he was in thread for my comments at top of page 12 at like 3 in the morning, but he never replied

[Neon_Chaos]

I'm moving the vote deadline to 9 PM EST. But even them I'm not sure if I can make it, I've been out partying all night.

[Raiders Army]

How.....cunning.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Post #351...this is the big reason i have RPI #1...it came literally posts after Cronin revealed his witness status(but had yet to post PM), and everyone had agreed with it except for sun...it was RPI who went through the rules looking for a way to save sun and came up with the kill technicality that turned out to be wrong...i kinda figured it was wrong, but it got some support...but that post, the first one and most important post of day 2 in regards to suns defense makes him my top choice...

Thats my reasoning on this one...im open to any other ideas though

While I agree RPI is most likely a wolf I think that before the PM was posted you almost HAD to believe something fishy was going on just going by the rules. And I still believe when the game is over Neon will say he made a mistake and accidently send St. Cronin a PM even though there was no kill.

I'm glad that Cronin got the PM, but as I have posted many times going by the rules it made no sense.

If you are going to make a case for RPI go by his votes and how he has acted completely crazy. He has gone after outted villagers with special roles IN EVERY VOTE! That is the case for RPI, and had St. Cronin never posted that PM I believe many more people would have voted against him, and SNDVLS would most likely be the vote today. He only came off the St. Cronin vote when the bangwagon was already set and it was obviously they were losing a wolf.

Also he insisted the blessed reveal himself, even though the true blessed probably doesn't even know he is blessed. And he has edited the majority of his posts, not sure what the means, but many people take it as a sign of a wolf.

[dubb93]

And also how his vote today was for "obvious" reasons. I believe if he gave his reasons without thinking it through for an extended period of time he was afraid he would have implicated himself since I still believe they are both wolves.

[hoopsguy]

So with RPI jumping on my King vote early and King throwing out the first vote for RPI, is this what 2 wolves would do at this point?

Not with two wolves. But maybe, with the third (cunning?) wolf laying low. I would agree that the wolves might try to seize control early in a day, especially after having yesterday derailed before it started with the Witness coming out early.

Has Neon posted on weekend voting? Are we running days on Saturday and Sunday or will we resume on Monday?

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by dubb93

And also how his vote today was for "obvious" reasons. I believe if he gave his reasons without thinking it through for an extended period of time he was afraid he would have implicated himself since I still believe they are both wolves.

The more you keep accusing me of being a wolf, the more I keep thinking you are one.The best play now for a wolf would be to ally himself with the villagers and hide in the background accusing all those that are considered quiet or unknown. You started off the day with a list of McSweeney and myself without a mention of RPI who is tops among many lists. And since the vote is still close you are holding out hope that if you stay with your vote on me, then you might get somebody to swing over to save RPI.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

The more you keep accusing me of being a wolf, the more I keep thinking you are one.The best play now for a wolf would be to ally himself with the villagers and hide in the background accusing all those that are considered quiet or unknown. You started off the day with a list of McSweeney and myself without a mention of RPI who is tops among many lists. And since the vote is still close you are holding out hope that if you stay with your vote on me, then you might get somebody to swing over to save RPI.

First off I'm not hiding in the background as I'm making a case against RPI, and I wouldn't be making a case against him if I were trying to "save" him. You are the one that has been "hiding in the background." I've seen the ploy many times from wolves and it usually works as they float all the way to the end. I'm trying to make sure that doesn't happen this time by leaving my vote on you as a means to start conversation tomorrow. Like I said, I think you are both wolves, end of story.

[kingfc22]

One reason I like playing the is he or isn't he a villager role is that the wolves will never kill you off because they know you will always be a suspect and they don't want to make it easier for the villagers.

Right now my list:
1. RPI
2. Dubb

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm trying to make sure that doesn't happen this time by leaving my vote on you as a means to start conversation tomorrow.

I think this helps prove my point more. Of course I'll be around tomorrow because there is no way you kill me tonight knowing that I'm your only ticket to survive tomorrow.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by dubb93

First off I'm not hiding in the background as I'm making a case against RPI, and I wouldn't be making a case against him if I were trying to "save" him. You are the one that has been "hiding in the background." I've seen the ploy many times from wolves and it usually works as they float all the way to the end. I'm trying to make sure that doesn't happen this time by leaving my vote on you as a means to start conversation tomorrow. Like I said, I think you are both wolves, end of story.

Okay, I am getting a little confused. Why do you think kingfc22 is a wolf? I haven't seen anything that looks like he's a bad guy other than RPI voted for him...and that just isn't good enough since I agree with you and Blade that RPI is probably a wolf.

Maybe I need to go back and read the posts again in more detail, but I think that in general if someone who isn't on the chopping block states that you might be a wolf, they are more than likely not a wolf...

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

I think this helps prove my point more. Of course I'll be around tomorrow because there is no way you kill me tonight knowing that I'm your only ticket to survive tomorrow.

How are you his only ticket to survive tomorrow?

[SackAttack]

Guys, I'm going to have to drop out. We're getting unexpected company today, and I won't have time to keep up with the game.

I'm sorry.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay, I am getting a little confused. Why do you think kingfc22 is a wolf? I haven't seen anything that looks like he's a bad guy other than RPI voted for him...and that just isn't good enough since I agree with you and Blade that RPI is probably a wolf.

Maybe I need to go back and read the posts again in more detail, but I think that in general if someone who isn't on the chopping block states that you might be a wolf, they are more than likely not a wolf...

King was heavily absent the past few days, and has only become active now that he has a vote against him...to his defense(somewhat), he said he wouldnt be around till today midday(now)

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

How are you his only ticket to survive tomorrow?

Let's say he is a wolf. He basically has said that he is keeping his vote on me to start conversation for tomorrow. His play, if he is a wolf and I think he is, would be to make it a 2 horse race and try to make the other villagers lynch me because I have been "laying low". Who else is would you have as suspect right now RA?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Let's say he is a wolf. He basically has said that he is keeping his vote on me to start conversation for tomorrow. His play, if he is a wolf and I think he is, would be to make it a 2 horse race and try to make the other villagers lynch me because I have been "laying low". Who else is would you have as suspect right now RA?

Bolded part mine. Didn't see that before. That would indicate in my mind that he is somewhat suspect but not entirely. Let me think for a sec.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

How are you his only ticket to survive tomorrow?

That I couldn't tell you. But my reasons for feeling he is a wolf is that he was almost completely silent the first couple of days and only showed up after I threw a vote his way.

As I've said, I understand people being away for a while, but I've seen this ploy pulled before. RPI has done it before for one when he was a wolf in a past game. He was never around for anything except to cast a vote and ALWAYS had an good excuse. In the end, he made it to the end of the game, but I managed to scare him into not attacking me and got Lathum's vote to win it for the villagers, but when the game was over RPI bragged about his "strong, silent game." I have a feeling that is what King was going for, and like I said, the longer we put off the vote for him the greater the chance he "flies under the radar."

[kingfc22]

Post #535 by Barkeep and post #555 by hoops also express concerns that dubb might be a wolf. So it is not just me.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Bolded part mine. Didn't see that before. That would indicate in my mind that he is somewhat suspect but not entirely. Let me think for a sec.

I did say that, but that is because RPI is as good as dead today, I feel both of them are wolves. Like I said, my main plan is I don't want anyone to fly under the radar. If we push King and it turns out he's clean, I'm OK with that. But my gut tells me they are both wolves.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by dubb93

If we push King and it turns out he's clean, I'm OK with that.

Now that is a funny line.