WW CLVI - Clue: Master Detective - GAME OVER! MURDERERS WIN! (Post 1817)

[PackerFanatic]

Just so I make sure I get a vote out there...I like hoops analysis of brit, but I feel we can be just as well-served by offing another confessed Big6 member and keeping around a potential seer.

VOTE FONTISIAN

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by mauchow

unvote brit
vote muraayyy

In fairness, it is cleaned up in the same minute.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Going back through the writeup this jumps out at me. Makes me feel even worse about britrock's reveal


Also, do not expect roles to be the normal WW roles. There are a few similarities, but for the most part, they are weird.

I don't think CW puts this here if there's a common garden seer in the game. That, coupled with the fact that the claimed seer role is far more powerful and different a role than others I'm aware of in the game right now, I'm calling BS on this one.

Would "seer who kills informant when he scans him/her and converts" not fit that description?

[path12]

Hoops, I'll put it out there that I am not an Informant. I would like to keep it at that for now.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

unvote murrayyy
vote britrock

Originally Posted by Danny

Chubby why the change back?

Originally Posted by Chubby

i dont know who muraayyy is, doesnt count!

Originally Posted by Chubby

didnt want a tie

Originally Posted by Chubby

i was going off of #418 then mau and me cancelled each other out

/shrug it was fast and furious

Well, if you were wondering why murrayyyyy wanted Chubby checked out today (per seance) this is the sequence.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here is the seer reveal, clearly under late vote duress. Not that I'm advocating revealing seer to start Day 1, but you have to be a little more skeptical of the self-serving reveal as powerful role right before deadline.

This would help us learn about voting history from Day 1 (potentially limited use as game goes on and Big 6 convert) while eliminating a confessed Big 6 member from the pool. There is skepticism about the scope of the revealed role ... just enough here to make me feel decent about this vote if it does end up here.

I was tossing around whether to reveal, as I would expect a powerful role to typically do (though see DT in the Vanilla game for an example of the opposite), or just to go down. But I figured the village wouldn't like seeing its seer go down on Day 1 without much of a fight. Plus, we knew murrayyyyy was the cook. I had the inkling that the Big Six might have more powerful roles than players in other character categories, so I was okay with a shift to him.

[britrock88]

hoops, I'm going to leapfrog and that and make sure we keep Chubby in the discussion.

Vote Chubby

[Coffee Warlord]

Dance puppets, dance.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Unless when you find someone you auto-kill them I guess. That makes a lot of sense. Still, unless CR tipped his hand that's a hell of a lucky shot on N1.

Bingo. This is how it would work for me.

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Random, dumb luck is always a possibility too! And if it was Scarlet, no way she comes out now, because she is probably converted now.

Quoted for reinforcement.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Autumn

However, as much as I agree that Brit's reveal is fishy, if he really was the seer it would be smart to keep him around. Either the wolves kill him, and get rid of one of the Big 6 for us, thereby preventing another death and conversoin, or they keep him around and we get some free scans. Certainly we're not going to believe them 100%, but they'll be useful once we find out the truth.

Bingo.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chubby

i'm not of the believe he's a full blown seer at all

Originally Posted by mauchow

I see what you did there..

Shhh, I won't tell anyone.

There are several people who have made similar comments in the thread suggesting that brit probably is not a full-blown seer. He's had opportunities to suggest that his seer role might be a bit diminished, but has chosen not to exercise that option so far.

[hoopsguy]

brit, I'm not convinced my vote is staying where it is ... I really don't want to hang a full-blown seer on D2 of this game even if letting you hang around tilts the odds to you going murderer on us later.

But if you are already a murderer then there isn't any kind of relative value calculation worth doing at this point. So that is what I'm trying to figure out in my head first and foremost.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

its hard to tell is Brit is full of it right now. if hes alive in 2 nights then im confident hes a wolf

More "bullet makes me nervous" posts ... predicting outcomes that suggest what we have to vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Putting in extra work because I'd like to make this one scan (BG willing) useful.

1) Autumn	stuck vote on Chubby at 1:26pm to make it Murray-3/brit-2/Chubby-2
2) bulletsponge	put brit up 3-1 at 10:12am; stuck to CR (single votee) at 11:16am
3) mauchow	voted Zinto 1:56pm Sunday; moved to Chubby at 4:50pm to tie Chubby/murray/brit at 4; moved to brit, then murray at deadline
4) Zinto	stuck vote on murray at 5:12pm to tie murray/brit at 5 with Chubby at 4
5) JAG		first to vote brit (10:58am Sunday); moved to murray at deadline
6) Chief Rum	voted JAG at 4:26pm to make it murray/brit-4, Chubby/JAG-3
7)PackerFanatic	voted brit at 8:58am to make it 2-1-1-1
8) saldana	voted JAG up to 2 at 3:51pm with murray-brit-Chubby at 4-4-3; moved to murray at 7:02pm to make it brit-6/murray-5
9) Lathum	voted murray at 10:13am to make it brit-3/murray-2
10) DaddyTorgo	voted murray at 7:49pm to make it brit-7/murray-6 (pre-reveal)
11) britrock88	voted JAG 6:52pm Sunday (4th single votee); moved to murray at deadline
12) Danny	first to vote Chubby (12:50pm) with brit-3/murray-2; moved to brit before deadline to make it brit-7/murray-5; switched to murray at deadline
13) murrayyyyy	voted DQ at 10:51am; moved to Chubby at 1:36pm to tie brit/murray/Chubby at 3; moved to brit at deadline
14) KatyLied	voted CR up to 2 at 5:40pm (leaders at 4/5); moved to murray at deadline
15) path12	voted brit at 2:40pm to tie Chubby/brit/murray at 3
16) hoopsguy	voted path (single votee) at 2:36pm
17) ntndeacon	first to vote murray, 6:24pm Sunday; moved to brit at 4:55pm to make it brit-5/Chubby-4/murray-3 (broke 3-way tie)
18) DQ_BOY1000	voted murray ahead of brit (3-2) at 12:35pm
19) fontisian	voted murray within 1 of brit (4-5) at 4:59pm; moved to Chubby at 5:24pm to tie Chubby/brit at 5
20) Chubby	voted murray ahead of brit (4-3) at 3:33pm; at deadline, moved to brit pre-reveal, then to murray and back to brit post-reveal
21) bhlloy	...no vote...
22) Darth Vilus	voted brit into 4-4 tie with murray at 3:34pm

Originally Posted by britrock88

I remember seeing at least 11 members in the thread at 7:56 when I decided to go for the reveal. Eight people voted within 10 minutes of the deadline. People who didn't vote near the deadline but posted within 5 minutes of the deadline: Autumn, bulletsponge, DQ_BOY1000, Lathum.

Originally Posted by britrock88

Autumn was on Chubby, bulletsponge on CR, DQ_BOY and Lathum on murrayyyyy.

Also, if brit was a starting wolf then bravo for the extra effort last night putting this stuff together. Seems pretty villagerish to me upon re-read.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Still trying to figure out why brit would come out as Big 6 today if a wolf, however. That, plus the inherent risk of "doing wolves job for them" is my struggle with feeling 100% confident in this vote.

If he's an Informer it might have been a shot at not getting "scanned" and killed.

[Danny]

I think Brit is on the up and up. It does surprise me at all that it appears the original 6 have different conditions / abilities. Seems a way to balance things.

[Danny]

Meant to say it does not surprise me at all

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

As dawn approaches, you hear a scream, and a gunshot!

The guest throw on their robes, many who look quite tired, as if they've been up all night, and search the house. It is not hard to find.

Lying face down in the hallway with their throat cut is Prof...no, wait! That's not Professor Plum, though it certainly looks like him! Careful examination shows it is actually Monsieur Brunette!

Darth Vilus was Monsiuer Brunette - He could disguise himself as any other player and perform their action.

So if you could steal a role's actions, would you go with Professor Plum with the assumption that is the seer? I could definitely get behind that logic ...

However, if he took a fall while impersonating someone - as CW's pre-writeup post of "this is gonna take awhile" (p505) suggests then that would suggest someone targeted Professor Plum, or one of our Big 6.

Boddy, who holds the weapons per role descriptions?
Any other theories make a lot of sense that might help explain the killing? I can't see murderers wanting to attack players who could later be joining their side.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum/brit - is getting your Informant a victory condition?

nope, no seperate victory condition

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I was tossing around whether to reveal, as I would expect a powerful role to typically do (though see DT in the Vanilla game for an example of the opposite), or just to go down. But I figured the village wouldn't like seeing its seer go down on Day 1 without much of a fight. Plus, we knew murrayyyyy was the cook. I had the inkling that the Big Six might have more powerful roles than players in other character categories, so I was okay with a shift to him.

You don't have my balls.

[Danny]

Are they chocolate and salty?

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If he's an Informer it might have been a shot at not getting "scanned" and killed.

I wouldn't have gone to the trouble of revealing and all that follows if I had a less significant villag role...

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

You don't have my balls.

Heh. Well, you did have that tie to help you out. And that other tie. ... and that other, other tie.

[hoopsguy]

OK, going to try and actually get some stuff done - couple of hours of my life I'm not getting back already sunk into post-diving.

[Danny]

Brit made the right call no matter if he is telling the truth or not. He was getting lynched if he did not reveal

[saldana]

i have to put a placeholder in for now since i will be out an about with my kids for a while

i dont totally buy what brit is selling, but i also dont really care for the antics at the deadline that went on yesterday

vote chubby

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So if you could steal a role's actions, would you go with Professor Plum with the assumption that is the seer? I could definitely get behind that logic ...

However, if he took a fall while impersonating someone - as CW's pre-writeup post of "this is gonna take awhile" (p505) suggests then that would suggest someone targeted Professor Plum, or one of our Big 6.

Boddy, who holds the weapons per role descriptions?
Any other theories make a lot of sense that might help explain the killing? I can't see murderers wanting to attack players who could later be joining their side.

That's a possibility for why DV got hit. There may be a role that can somehow target Characters, rather than Players. Or simply that the disguise fooled someone who was trying to kill the real Professor Plum.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Would "seer who kills informant when he scans him/her and converts" not fit that description?

It might, but its also a power that is completely out of whack with what else we have seen in the game.

It also strikes me that by saying you can be converted you are giving yourself a reason why you wouldn't have been killed after a couple of nights. It's way too convenient. Sorry, I'm not buying it for a second

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

However, as much as I agree that Brit's reveal is fishy, if he really was the seer it would be smart to keep him around. Either the wolves kill him, and get rid of one of the Big 6 for us, thereby preventing another death and conversoin, or they keep him around and we get some free scans. Certainly we're not going to believe them 100%, but they'll be useful once we find out the truth.

Problem is he can be converted at any time. So we can't even read too much into his scans. He could have killed CR last night and already be a wolf no?

And if he's telling the truth about being able to be converted, the wolves have no reason to kill him either. So this isn't going to get cleared up either way

[Autumn]

If he's able to be converted, and is truly a seer, then leaving him alive means that at any point before being converted he might find a wolf. That's a big plus for the village and a big threat for the wolves. Yet the fact that he's suspect and able to be converted means it's tempting for them to leave him alive and hope he distracts us and confuses us. So I don't see a big downside to leaving him alive for the time being. We can always lynch him later. When we do, we'll know whether and when he was converted so his scans will be cleared up.

[bhlloy]

Not sure how we'd know when he was converted, if he's not already. Unless I'm missing something. Are you assuming that would be in the writeup?

Regardless I do have to agree there's no harm in looking elsewhere for a while. I think I agree that leaving him alive could be sensible, especially if we can pinpoint where a conversion happens.

[Darth Vilus]

bummer lol

[hoopsguy]

Does anyone have a vote count?

I'm going to have to determine if I sit on this vote or move it over the next couple of hours. Not sure if I'll be around all the way up to deadline tonight.

[PackerFanatic]

Autumn 2
bulletsponge 1
britrock88 1
fontisian 1
Chubby 1

[PackerFanatic]

Make that Chubby 2 as well - missed the vote from britrock

[britrock88]

To convert, I would have had to have been responsible for one of the two NKs last night. Because I am Big Six, my vendetta is against an Informant, so I can't have converted by scan-killing DV, who was an Other Extra. And assuming that the Big Six-Informant vendettas line up was we think they ought, I would only have scan-killed CR and converted if I were Miss Scarlett, which I'm not.

[britrock88]

And in either case, I wouldn't have a clean scan of ntn to report to you all.

[Coffee Warlord]

2 - Autumn
2 - Chubby
1 - Bulletsponge
1 - Britrock
1 - Font

[ntndeacon]

brit,
if you were not who you are saying you are, then you would not need a clean scan on me. you would need only report you had cleared someone..(I am just the fortunate one this time) If you clear me correctly, you have a major supporter for your claim. If you "cleared" a wolf, then that will help the wolves

[ntndeacon]

Viewing how quick you had, before the unfortunate knowledge of your seerdom got out, I am inclined to believe you., brit.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Lathum

This is a vote against voting or thinkingabout voting for a possible seer on day 2.

[britrock88]

NTN, to add to your Lathum vote, I was wondering if a smart wolf would take advantage of the fact that the Cook was lynched and claim the Big Six role associated with him.

[PackerFanatic]

That would still leave open the possibility of a counter-reveal though...not sure how smart that would be.

[bhlloy]

Interesting thought Brit, I doubt it though. That's the kind of he said/she said situation that results in death in two days if not one for a wolf. Not worth it

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

That would still leave open the possibility of a counter-reveal though...not sure how smart that would be.

Yup, this

[hoopsguy]

Well, seeing as how I have my vote on the "possible seer" on Day 2 I probably am at least as guilty as Lathum.

I'm pretty sure I'll be voting for one of our Big Six today, but I doubt it would be Lathum without someone countering his role.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Not sure how we'd know when he was converted, if he's not already. Unless I'm missing something. Are you assuming that would be in the writeup?

Regardless I do have to agree there's no harm in looking elsewhere for a while. I think I agree that leaving him alive could be sensible, especially if we can pinpoint where a conversion happens.

On his death we'll know for sure what his Character is. We can then look back and see if his Informer was killed on an earlier day, and if so know that he was converted that day.

[Danny]

Good analysis Autumn, when he dies then we will know his character and allegiance

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by britrock88

To convert, I would have had to have been responsible for one of the two NKs last night. Because I am Big Six, my vendetta is against an Informant, so I can't have converted by scan-killing DV, who was an Other Extra. And assuming that the Big Six-Informant vendettas line up was we think they ought, I would only have scan-killed CR and converted if I were Miss Scarlett, which I'm not.

You are either: Miss Scarlett, and now a Murderer, and lying to us (but not lying yesterday about being a seer);

or

You are another Big 6, not lying about a seer, and innocent

or

You are another Big 6, a starting Murderer, and not lying about being a seer

or

You are another Big 6, a starting Murderer and lying about being a seer

or

You are an Informer/Extra Role, a starting Murderer, and lying about being a seer and a Big 6

or

You are an Informer/eXtra Role, a starting Murderer, lying about being a Big 6 but not lying about being a seer.

Lots of possibilities!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

Good analysis Autumn, when he dies then we will know his character and allegiance

Well, what I mean is when he dies we'll know exactly when he was converted, so we'll know which scans to trust. So as long as we don't put much weight in them now, why not let him scan?

[Danny]

[I got you, I just laughed when I read it. I agree btw