[Poll] How many actual COVID pandemic deaths in the USA (once the pandemic is over)?

[sterlingice]

I've been talking about making this poll for a while now and I guess it's about time.

The simple question is to guess the answer to: "What will history books say the USA death toll was for the COVID-19 pandemic?"


A couple of quick "rules".

• We're asking this question in good faith. How many actual deaths. This isn't going to be "Donald Trump becomes dictator for life in the USA ala Kim Jong-Il and the American history books say that only 4 people died". Germany is going to be like "Uh, yeah, but we estimate 500K people died". That's the number we're counting here.
• But this also means we're talking about actual deaths - like the real number not the "reported number". If you think we're massively under-reporting and have 2M deaths right now and hiding how many are actually dead, then say 2M, and assume history will get the answer correct(-ish) in the end.
• Yes, I realize this gets a little dicey because you can start talking about off the wall hypotheticals like "pilot with COVID passes out, crashes plane into nuclear plant, and 50K people die" or "the Paraguayans start experimenting with COVID and create a virus that turn us all into zombies and goodbye human race". Let's assume "standard" unknowns. But if you want to comment about that one guy on Reddit who claimed to know this was coming back in January and how it's going to mutate in bats in Brazil and could roar back with a 20% fatality rate -have at it; just show your work.
• I wrestled with this one so I'll leave it up to you, the voter. If the vaccine is unsafe and kills some people (ala the Cutter Polio vaccine), count those or don't into your tally. I probably would as people wouldn't be taking the vaccine if there were not for the virus so this would be a direct cause. However, there also hasn't been a vaccine incident that added a significant percentage to the death toll of a virus so keep that in mind.
• Things like 100K additional people died from economic distress and suicide are a lot more of a grey area. We've seen some really odd behavior with death numbers since the pandemic like a decrease in traffic fatalities that offset some of these. Do what you will with this, but I, personally, would not include them. History likely won't recognize those numbers.
• I'm guessing history will probably recognize the pandemic as over once major spikes mostly disappear or turn into a tail. Like I get that flu seasons kills 20-60K per year in the USA. But these aren't considered deaths as part of any pandemic like, say, 1968 or 1918. This is going to be a race to either a treatment (unlikely), vaccine (probably a ways off), the virus mutates into a less lethal form, or herd immunity is reached because enough of the population has gotten sick. All of these have happened historically to stop pandemics.

Here's the best estimates of where we are right now:
Johns Hopkins has us at 119K right now.
CDC has us with excess deaths between 110K-153K with a caveat that there is up to a 10 day delay on deaths.

So, at its essence, this question boils down to "How many people actually die of COVID in the USA during what history will call the COVID-19 pandemic?"

SI

[sterlingice]

Hey, cool - the stars mostly looked like I thought they would

SI

[Arles]

I think it is close to double the reported amount. I'm guessing 190-220, but I went with the second as I think 200 is closer than 300.

[RainMaker]

I took 400-500k. We're at 120k and it cases seem to be going up and the country is opening. I'm also guessing that the 120k is undercounting a lot of deaths and in time will adjust when data scientists get a hold of things years from now. Also certain states are going to fudge the death numbers as we've seen from places like Florida so an exact count will be tough.

We're probably at least a year away from a vaccine that is readily available to the public. At even just 750 deaths a day, that would put us at over 400k by next year. And then you still have stragglers from those who can't or refuse to get the vaccine.

[RainMaker]

Oh fuck I messed up. I thought it was how many would we end with. My estimate would be 180k of actual deaths now.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Oh fuck I messed up. I thought it was how many would we end with. My estimate would be 180k of actual deaths now.

I think he meant the end number. History books tend not to say "In the year 2020, the Pandemic claimed X deaths from March till June and then went on another year"

Personally i am afraid winter will be bad in many countries due to a false sense if relative security.

Number will also depend on how much isolation you put in place for retirement homes (which is a cheap out and has ramifications as well) and in general how good a country gets at avoiding it spreading in vulnerable populations.
It will also matter at what situations it spreads and how intensely. A 75 year old catching it at low level of virus transfer (say outdoors or in a shorter conversation with a meter gap) might be less at risk as the same person catching it at a birthday Party in a crowded unventilated room.
At least it is a theory that the initial level of exposure plays a big role in how sick you get.

[Arles]

Yeah, I'm the one who messed up. I thought he meant now. For the entire year? I have no idea but I would probably go in the 300-400K range.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, I'm the one who messed up. I thought he meant now. For the entire year? I have no idea but I would probably go in the 300-400K range.

Not even the entire year - the end of the pandemic, whenever that may be. For instance, the 1918 flu pandemic had a pretty substantial amount of deaths stretching out into 1919.

So this takes into account like how long you think it's going to be times how "intense" it will be.

SI

[SackAttack]

I'm guessing 400-500k. There are some states that have been actively putting a thumb on the scale("yeah you have COVID-19 but you also have pneumonia? That's the cause of death! Yay low COVID-19 death rate in our state!"), and early on we had basically no testing combined with a much higher than normal reported rate of respiratory deaths.

Tests weren't done on corpses because why would you waste scarce tests on the dead?

So, yeah, 400-500k is probably closer to the truth right now.

[sterlingice]

I'm having such a hard time getting my head around the final numbers. There are 4 huge factors in play for me

1) We've already got 150K deaths in 3 months. But that does include hitting our most dense area hard. But, man, 50K deaths per month!
2) How many people are immune now? It seems like maybe 10% across the board. So if you think you have to get to 60-70%, that means take the deaths and multiple by, say, 6. 6x150= OUCH. 900K. The 1918 pandemic was like 650K in the USA (though our population was a lot smaller).
3) But that's if we just let it run rampant through our population at the rate it went. Increased social distancing, masks, etc. should reduce some of the fatality rate. Hopefully there's some downward pressure from the virus itself - usually viruses get less deadly as they go along so maybe that cuts our number.
4) This is a race to see how low we can get it before we get a vaccine that, in theory, should end it. Or the really low probability of a silver bullet anti-viral. But I'd think we'd have heard smoke by now if we had a chance at one.
5) This also assumes immunity ends the pandemic or a vaccine or downward pressure. If herd immunity does nothing and the vaccine progress is slower than expected. Well, that's just scary.

So, my back of the napkin sketch would be.

If left unchecked, virus kills about 50-100K per month (fewer now, more in the fall) up to 1M before we get herd immunity.
If we get an effective vaccine out this year (highly unlikely), we should end around 400Kish, right?
If it goes on longer, we go towards that higher number.
Then you put on a multiplier about how the number could be decreased by viral downward pressure or behavior changes.

So, if I had to pick all of those things out, I think we rush out a vaccine early-mid next year, but by then we'd have already seen like 500K deaths (50K x 10 months) plus the banked 150K deaths already. Hopefully the virus gets weaker and we get something like 0.8 on that 500K. That gets us closer to 400K + 150K. And I feel that's optimistic. But that puts me in the 500K-750K bucket.

SI

[MIJB#19]

Trout - we will never know for sure.

Edit: today we're seeing authorities and hospitals report 'died and while diagnosed with COVID-19', but it's hard to tell whether some would have lived that much longer without getting infected by this specific virus. For the statistics, it's a grey area, if you're not specific in your definition.

[JAG]

I went with 400-500k with the following assumptions:

1. About 160k actual deaths currently.
2. Roughly 20-30k deaths per month through the end of the year.
3. Deaths slow somewhat with more treatment options. A Biden administration (shrug) puts a much greater emphasis on trying to tamp down on deaths, puts out guidelines (and/or pleasing with people) and provides more federal support to states in need.
4. A vaccine is developed early next year and becomes widely available towards the end of 2021.

Here’s hoping we can beat that estimate.

[Marc Vaughan]

200-300k, this is based upon the fact that the death rate is lower for the younger part of the population and so long as the hospitals don't overflow they'll keep things down to a low percentage of actual deaths.

(plus my hope that they do get a vaccine in early 2021 ... I fully expect Trump to announce and roll one out for the election, but as to its effectiveness ... I expect it to perform similarly to his last favorite drug)

[Brian Swartz]

1-2 million. I'm still in the 'second wave worse than the first' category. I also think the death count will continue to go up as we understand all the ways that people are dying indirectly because of the virus.

[sterlingice]

I guess it's time to check in.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
We're officially closing in on 200K with the excess death count closer to 250K.

I don't think the start of the school year will be all that kind but mask usage seems to be creeping ever higher so we've seen R0s below 1 in a lot of places.

SI

[sterlingice]

I don't know which projection to use so I just grabbed the UW one.

COVID-19
This projection has us at just over 400K by the end of the year. However, it also has us going over our current "plateau" of 900 deaths up to a new one around 2500 per day.

These are the notes associated with the projection estimates

* We extended our forecasts to January 1. We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December. Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year.
* If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 620,000 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 210,000 more deaths from now to the end of the year.
* Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 30% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year.

FYI: If we average our 900 per day that we've been at for the last month, we'll be around 300K by year's end.

SI

[Edward64]

I guess somewhat timely to revive this thread with all the horrendous predictions.

I don't think anyone expected to see this spike in infections. Still tbd on deaths, hopefully not near as bad of a % as earlier this year.

[PilotMan]

When revisions are done, we're going to be in the 500-750k range I think.

[Brian Swartz]

I think lots of people expected a spike in infections, a second wave has been predicted since basically ever by lots of experts. I might have been high in predicting over a million, but it'll be years until we really know.

[sterlingice]

I had us at 550K above. I'm cautiously optimistic we might come in below that as I had us at 50K deaths per month this year and we were "only" around 30K per for July/Aug/Sept/Oct (COVID-19 pandemic deaths) - Wikipedia. But we're ramping back up with over 2K per day this past week and I'm not sure where those numbers go with a lot of full hospitals, holiday gatherings, and indoor conditions. With a vaccine on the horizon, I think we stay on the good side of 500K for the "official count". However, when history goes back and tries to get a "real count", looking at things coded as pneumonia or flu or the stupid crap that places like Florida are doing with their numbers, we're going to end up in that 500K-750K bucket.

SI

[rjolley]

I was talking to some people and remembered that we had this poll. About half of us were too low in our guesstimates. Hopefully, the upcoming changes will help stem the tide, but with how this has become such a divisive issue, I don't think they will matter much. We're basically stuck on the trek we're on with no real change to trajectory based on the population's actions. Those who want the vaccine will get it, those who don't, won't, and nothing will get people to take more protective actions for the next few months.

[CrimsonFox]

i didn't get to vote

[CrimsonFox]

I'll take what's left: 750K-1M

[sterlingice]

About a month ago, I was feeling "good" about the 500K-750K bucket I had picked and was even optimistic that was might come in lower. I'm pretty sure we don't exceed that but not with the certainty I had back then. Vaccine rollout is slow and it's going to be something where only 50%-60% of the population gets it and the rest just catch it to roll us towards herd immunity.

SI

[nilodor]

It will be interesting to see what the all-cause mortality numbers are at. With the politicizing of COVID deaths, some states up, some down, we might never get a true number. I've seen 2.8 million as the rough 2018/2019 number in the US.

This website gives a reasonable plot of the death rate (pardon the scales)
Excess mortality during the Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data

I had seen some numbers saying about 3.1 million deaths through mid November from the CDC. This will be a little low because not all deaths will be in the system for a while. With the rise in cases towards the end of the year it seems like the final excess mortality will be in the 750K range?

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

About a month ago, I was feeling "good" about the 500K-750K bucket I had picked and was even optimistic that was might come in lower. I'm pretty sure we don't exceed that but not with the certainty I had back then. Vaccine rollout is slow and it's going to be something where only 50%-60% of the population gets it and the rest just catch it to roll us towards herd immunity.

SI

We're over 400,000 today with 4,000 people dying A DAY and it's still going up. Even if we assume it levels off immediately through February, that puts us at 550,000. We could pass 750,000 by the end of April - and that's being conservative.

[Edward64]

Currently at about 612k deaths. JAMA article said about 522k excess deaths as of Jan 2021. Not all of those can be attributed to Covid so who know the true number. Assuming 50% that makes it 612k + 261k = 873k deaths.

Probably 750k - 1M range is the winner.

Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Currently at about 612k deaths. JAMA article said about 522k excess deaths as of Jan 2021. Not all of those can be attributed to Covid so who know the true number. Assuming 50% that makes it 612k + 261k = 873k deaths.

Probably 750k - 1M range is the winner.

Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network

You misunderstand the Numbers here a bit, though accidentily come close

Excess Deaths = Above normal, so including Covid19. But only up to January 2nd. So at that point per the Analysis in JAMA there were 522k Excess Deaths, but only 378k reported as Covid19 by the CDC definition. The exact parameters i am not sure of but likely includes a positive test, which is not always performed before death, especially elderly at home or care settings dying soon after things get bad , but also those arriving late to hospital (where a test might already show as negative). And of course Covid actually does result in things like heartattacks, blot clods etc and other conditions are a common denominator of sorts (like Alzheimers patients), so without a test it can easily be misjudged in people not treated in hospital. Of course this also happens the other way round i am sure (though of course far from as often as certain circles claim), but it seems a wide consensus that an undercount is more likely in most regions unless the HC system utterly collapsed. So even aside from it still being a "Pandemic toll", the deaths with Covid19 as the main cause are likely an undercount.

If one wanted to infer from the articles numbers on Jan. 2 it would have to be:

522k --> 72,4% of these officially Covid19 --> 602k now = 72,4% of 831k.

in reality likely a bit lower as the amount of misdiagnosed deaths was very likely higher in the first wave than later on.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, looks like we're headed towards nobody having the correct bucket (750K-1M). Never mind that having 750K-1M dead means nobody is a winner.

There was a time when I would have considered <1M a "win", when it looked like the death rate was worse earlier on. Now we mostly know that CFR of >1% is only once medical resources get overwhelmed. And we saw how horribly the handling of this was botched, especially last year, so it feels like we lost x00,000 people more than we needed to but I don't think I could quite put a number to x (somewhere between 2-5).

SI

[sterlingice]

Might have to revise this one upwards, though not quite yet.

CDC COVID Data Tracker
The official numbers will almost certainly eclipse 900K by the time Omicron is done. We're losing between 1500 and 2000 people per day right now.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
Officially, excess mortality is 968K so if we go off that number, we'll be over 1M within the month

SI

[Edward64]

I'm thinking the 1-2M is the winner

U.S. excess death toll has climbed above 1 million during the pandemic: 'We've never seen anything like it,' says CDC official - MarketWatch

The U.S. has recorded more than 1 million excess deaths since the start of the pandemic, according to data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, ahead of the roughly 926,000 deaths captured by Johns Hopkins data.

The number crossed the 1 million milestone last week to reach 1,023,916, the Washington Post reported, citing the CDC’s head of mortality statistics, Robert Anderson.

While most of those deaths are due to the coronavirus, records also show higher numbers of fatalities from heart disease, hypertension, dementia and other illnesses during the two years of the pandemic, declared by the World Health Organization on March 12, 2020.

[CrimsonFox]

I've been wondering how many antimask/antivaxx deaths there have been? or even by party too...per state