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Old 10-24-2020, 09:05 AM   #5101
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It is, but it also doesn't mean that the entire 'gotcha' concept is fair. It's not. I hate those. I couldn't make it through the first movie because it was so cringeworthy and making fun of people in bad situations felt wrong to me. There are elements that are fair, but not a full set up. The people I know who get the most excited for those things just aren't comfortable playing on an even playing field.
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Old 10-24-2020, 09:10 AM   #5102
GrantDawg
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Shouldn't the presidents personal lawyer be a little more cautious about putting himself in compromising positions? We are all speculating if he was fondling himself but the real story should be why is he in that pot in the first place?
Let's really break this down a bit, not that I want to defend Rudy. He was having an interview with a young woman and other people in a hotel suite. She started hitting on him. She sent everyone out of the room. She directed him to a back room to remove his mic. She seemed to have been the one to undo his pants and push him back on the bed as she did so. In the end, if they were doing more it was two consenting adults, but he was very obviously being friendly but not overly grabby or anything. She was being very touchy/grabby.

This was all supposed to be a funny setup, and it was. Nothing really untoward happened.
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Old 10-24-2020, 09:15 AM   #5103
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Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
Let's really break this down a bit, not that I want to defend Rudy. He was having an interview with a young woman and other people in a hotel suite. She started hitting on him. She sent everyone out of the room. She directed him to a back room to remove his mic. She seemed to have been the one to undo his pants and push him back on the bed as she did so. In the end, if they were doing more it was two consenting adults, but he was very obviously being friendly but not overly grabby or anything. She was being very touchy/grabby.

This was all supposed to be a funny setup, and it was. Nothing really untoward happened.

IMO if you have access to the POTUS and presumably a wealth of info about the POTUS you shouldn't be putting yourself in that position.
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Old 10-24-2020, 10:42 AM   #5104
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Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
Let's really break this down a bit, not that I want to defend Rudy. He was having an interview with a young woman and other people in a hotel suite. She started hitting on him. She sent everyone out of the room. She directed him to a back room to remove his mic. She seemed to have been the one to undo his pants and push him back on the bed as she did so. In the end, if they were doing more it was two consenting adults, but he was very obviously being friendly but not overly grabby or anything. She was being very touchy/grabby.

This was all supposed to be a funny setup, and it was. Nothing really untoward happened.

I bet she was paid a fortune to go through all that.
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Old 10-24-2020, 11:31 AM   #5105
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I mean, we know that Rudy is working with Russian intelligence through Derkach. He was a huge risk before Borat.
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Old 10-24-2020, 01:50 PM   #5106
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
I walk the dog pretty much every night. And every night there are more yard signs popping up. Certainly more than I’ve ever seen. A real diversity, too. Biden. Trump. Black Lives Matter. Back The Blue.

Based on that, I agree with those turn out models that predict a significant increase over 2016.

Took a different way to avoid some construction and saw a Jorgensen sign. It’s all on the table in 2020.
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Old 10-24-2020, 03:01 PM   #5107
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Here in Orange County, NY, I can't imagine it's really about voter suppression, but lines are crazy today. We went to two different locations, in Newburgh it was 3.5 hours and in Montgomery, it was at least 2. I know there's crazy turnout this ear, but it's an embarrassment that our voting system makes it so difficult to cast a ballot.
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Old 10-24-2020, 05:53 PM   #5108
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Joe Biden is coming to campaign in Georgia on Tuesday. Other than for a quick fundraiser, I can't think of the last time a Democratic presidential candidate has come to Georgia this late on the race.

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Old 10-24-2020, 05:53 PM   #5109
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Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
Let's really break this down a bit, not that I want to defend Rudy. He was having an interview with a young woman and other people in a hotel suite. She started hitting on him. She sent everyone out of the room. She directed him to a back room to remove his mic. She seemed to have been the one to undo his pants and push him back on the bed as she did so. In the end, if they were doing more it was two consenting adults, but he was very obviously being friendly but not overly grabby or anything. She was being very touchy/grabby.

This was all supposed to be a funny setup, and it was. Nothing really untoward happened.

Agreed. As long as Rudy wasn't told before the interview that she was supposed to be 15, there's just nothing here that bothers me in the slightest.
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Old 10-24-2020, 06:01 PM   #5110
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Rudy's got a thing for being surrounded by young women. His Com person is, or at least was, a college student. Another young woman on his staff was a HS student last year. It's not criminal, but it's gross.
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Old 10-24-2020, 06:45 PM   #5111
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Joe Biden is coming to campaign in Georgia on Tuesday. Other than for a quick fundraiser, I can't think of the last time a Democratic presidential candidate has come to Georgia this late on the race.

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I don't expect it, but 2 Georgia Senate seats would look really nice in blue

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Old 10-24-2020, 07:06 PM   #5112
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Whatever happened to Bloomberg promising to drop a bunch of money into the race?
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:15 PM   #5113
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
Whatever happened to Bloomberg promising to drop a bunch of money into the race?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/mee...846#blogHeader

He gave it to the DNC so they could organize the best places to put it
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:37 PM   #5114
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He's also putting a ton of money into F through an independent group. It's far from the 1 bil he promised, but he's supposedly spending well over 100 mil total.
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Old 10-24-2020, 07:59 PM   #5115
sterlingice
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He also raised about $16M to pay felon fines in Florida so they could vote (since poll taxes and all)

Bloomberg Adds $16 Million To A Fund That Helps Florida Felons Get Chance To Vote : NPR

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Last edited by sterlingice : 10-24-2020 at 08:00 PM.
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Old 10-25-2020, 08:38 AM   #5116
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Originally Posted by Ben E Lou View Post

FWIW, in this purple state (D Governor with 2 R Senators, one of whom may lose to a D this time,) my wife went to vote today at a very white/suburban location. She's going to have to go another time due to the 100+ person line at the time she got there.
It's all about timing. Just went to the same location, and this happened...


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Old 10-25-2020, 09:16 AM   #5117
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Well done Ben! Curious did you see any Trump "poll watchers" or cops?
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Old 10-25-2020, 09:35 AM   #5118
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Originally Posted by Thomkal View Post
Well done Ben! Curious did you see any Trump "poll watchers" or cops?
No one at all, but this morning isn’t exactly a litmus test. It’s the chilliest morning we’ve had in a couple of weeks or so, and it has been pouring rain since around 7am. There was no one lounging around outside at all, and as I walked up, there was no one else in the parking lot. No one walking up. No one leaving. Total ghost town. No cops inside that I noticed. No wait at all. More poll workers than voters. The location is only about eight minutes from our house, so I went, voted, went home, and then my wife also went and voted while I stayed with the kiddos, and she said her experience was the same. She couldn’t have been happier that she just left immediately when she saw that huge line past week.
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Old 10-25-2020, 09:51 AM   #5119
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I had a dream that the 538 projection had Biden down to 54% overnight.

I think I'm ready for this election to be over.
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Old 10-25-2020, 09:52 AM   #5120
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Originally Posted by Ben E Lou View Post
No one at all, but this morning isn’t exactly a litmus test. It’s the chilliest morning we’ve had in a couple of weeks or so, and it has been pouring rain since around 7am. There was no one lounging around outside at all, and as I walked up, there was no one else in the parking lot. No one walking up. No one leaving. Total ghost town. No cops inside that I noticed. No wait at all. More poll workers than voters. The location is only about eight minutes from our house, so I went, voted, went home, and then my wife also went and voted while I stayed with the kiddos, and she said her experience was the same. She couldn’t have been happier that she just left immediately when she saw that huge line past week.

Cool!
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Old 10-25-2020, 10:29 AM   #5121
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It's a little skewed b/c most of my MAGA friends and family are from Louisiana/Texas, but the Facebook campaigning is leaning heavily on the "Biden wants to ban all petroleum and petroleum-based products, and that's bad" idea.

It was a debate gaff. And they are jumping on it.

Not sure how much it resonates outside of the base, but the base is all in on it.
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Old 10-25-2020, 10:47 AM   #5122
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I mean MAGA people on Facebook are saying Biden wants to ban private insurance, so I wouldn't take what MAGA folks are saying all that seriously (in terms of the truth or how it resonates)

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Old 10-25-2020, 10:54 AM   #5123
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Originally Posted by molson View Post
I had a dream that the 538 projection had Biden down to 54% overnight.

I think I'm ready for this election to be over.

The past few days it started to creep back in the other direction. I don't need that stress
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Old 10-25-2020, 01:41 PM   #5124
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Every time I've checked it, 87%. Pennsylvania's numbers are looking bluer all the time and that's been the 'tipping point' state for some while now. Iowa and Georgia don't look as good as they did a week ago, and it might only be 90% instead of 95% or whatever on election night, but I'm still as confident as one can be for an election in modern polarized America.
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Old 10-25-2020, 01:50 PM   #5125
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Kamala Harris is going to Texas on Friday. They must be confident about the upper midwest.
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Old 10-25-2020, 02:06 PM   #5126
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Just voted. Took about an hour total.
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Old 10-25-2020, 02:44 PM   #5127
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Speaking of how good AOC is...

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Old 10-25-2020, 02:58 PM   #5128
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I was just reading her opponent has raised $10 million in race he has no hope of winning. I wonder how many that have donated know anything about him.
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Old 10-25-2020, 03:04 PM   #5129
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Just voted. Took about an hour total.

so many judge ovals to fill in

Last edited by CrimsonFox : 10-25-2020 at 05:15 PM.
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Old 10-25-2020, 03:06 PM   #5130
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Six for me, I think.
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Old 10-25-2020, 04:12 PM   #5131
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Kamala Harris is going to Texas on Friday. They must be confident about the upper midwest.

There's a real chance at flipping the Texas House and the redistricting that would entail. There's a Senate race here but Cornyn will probably win that comfortably. That said, he's been running ads during football and baseball and about half he's talking about being bipartisan so his internal numbers must be worrying him. I mean, he's the #2 GOP Senator and he's tacking to the middle. In Texas?

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Old 10-25-2020, 04:14 PM   #5132
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I just saw that more 65+ African-Americans have already voted in Georgia than in all of 2016.
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Old 10-25-2020, 04:38 PM   #5133
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN27A0TA

Even Putin sees the writing on the wall as he dismisses his old chew toy.
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Old 10-25-2020, 05:14 PM   #5134
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I just saw that more 65+ African-Americans have already voted in Georgia than in all of 2016.

this stat breaks my brain..."than in all of 2016"? what does that mean?
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Old 10-25-2020, 05:16 PM   #5135
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Six for me, I think.

think i had like 15
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Old 10-25-2020, 05:22 PM   #5136
SirFozzie
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this stat breaks my brain..."than in all of 2016"? what does that mean?

meaning that not only has the vote total of that particular cross tab (65+ and African-American) beaten 2016's early voting total with 9 ish days left till election day, they have cast more votes then 65+/A-A TOTAL in that election (between early voting and election day)
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Old 10-25-2020, 05:27 PM   #5137
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Yeah, what Fozzie said.
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Old 10-25-2020, 08:00 PM   #5138
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Watched the 60 Minutes interviews. Trump came off looking like a baby, but was probably wise to release the tape (and break the story) going into the weekend so that it didn’t dominate the Monday morning cycle. There were no tough questions that he shouldn’t have a canned answer for at this point and he was especially thin skinned from the start. Missed opportunity for him to look presidential.

I thought Biden handled tough questions very well (gave a nice answer on court packing, dismissed the thought that he is in mental decline, and acknowledged his age in a nice way, I thought). He had very good answers and nonverbals, in my opinion.

Harris didn’t look great and sort of inappropriately laughed at times (looked bad in contrast with Norah O’Donnell looking quite serious. Probably nerves. She gave some warm answers and was shaky on tougher questions, in my opinion.

Pence stuck to the script and looked alright, given that he has to tote water for Trump and the coronavirus mistakes. Got to give him credit for staying loyal and keeping in line.
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Old 10-25-2020, 09:37 PM   #5139
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Saturday morning was the first weekend day for in- person early voting for my bluish Ohio County. We arrived at 7:15 and were 8th in line for the 8 AM opening. We were done by 8:10.

By the time we left, the line was out the building, out a walkway, into the parking garage and around it. 300-500 people I'm guessing. It's crazy
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Old 10-26-2020, 11:35 AM   #5140
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One thought on all of the new voters. I think a decent portion could be people who moved from one state to another. My guess is that information on who voted is state specific. I'm wondering in some areas if is isn't precinct specifc? Not sure it matters, but from a data perspective it might be less important.

Now the shear number of voters in various demographic groups is important as that gets to the make-up of the electorate.
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Old 10-26-2020, 11:54 AM   #5141
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There were no tough questions that he shouldn’t have a canned answer for at this point

It shows just how lazy he is. He can't even be bothered to have his team prepare canned answers for him to memorize.
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Old 10-26-2020, 01:45 PM   #5142
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I went to vote today right after lunchtime. I thought it was a good setup safety wise. All of the poll workers were wearing masks and gloves. There were disposable swab sticks for the purpose of signing the voting statement digitally. Even the "I voted" stickers were separated so you just has to grab one for yourself if you wanted one. There were only three people in the room where I voted and the whole process took about 10 minutes tops. My wife dropped her mail in ballot off last Monday.
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Old 10-26-2020, 03:41 PM   #5143
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Man charged in burning of ballot box, Boston police say

Good riddance, I hope he gets several years at least in prison.
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Old 10-26-2020, 04:32 PM   #5144
GrantDawg
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This week we have two early voting precincts set up in our county. The wait times are still at over an hour at both.

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Old 10-26-2020, 04:34 PM   #5145
sterlingice
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I was in and out in about 5 minutes last Thursday in my county. But Texas has an extra week of early voting this year and we're already at 90% of how many voted in 2016. Not 90% of how many voted in early voting, 90% of voting period. And we haven't had election day yet. To be fair, in 2016, something like 70% of people early voted.

EDIT: More notes:

https://www.brazoriacountyclerk.net/...cument?id=1466
In 2016, 121K voted: 94K early, 5K absentee, 22K election day.

https://www.brazoriacountyclerk.net/...cument?id=6149
So far this year: 101K early, 9K absentee, 1 week of early voting and election day still to come

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Old 10-26-2020, 05:28 PM   #5146
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I keep seeing facebook ads so by saying ZOMG Trump leading florida by 2! Don't believe the pundits! Michigan is going Republican...etc. I gotta think these are all just ads trying to prompt more donations...right? RIGHT???
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Old 10-26-2020, 05:44 PM   #5147
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Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
I keep seeing facebook ads so by saying ZOMG Trump leading florida by 2! Don't believe the pundits! Michigan is going Republican...etc. I gotta think these are all just ads trying to prompt more donations...right? RIGHT???

Yup.

There are risks right now for Biden: Polling errors and the GOP stealing the election. He currently leads in the 538 tipping point state (PA) by five points, which is on the bleeding edge of polling errors, but it is not inconceivable. Which is why they give Trump ~10% chance of winning. That's mostly accommodating polling error.

But, as Nate Silver, Harry Enten, etc. were saying on Twitter today, the only "good" numbers for Trump right now are sketchy GOP-affiliated pollsters. Trump has not gained ground with the real pollsters. And the election is happening right now. It is getting too late for him to really be able to change course.

If the numbers are right (or even remotely close), Biden will win.
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Old 10-26-2020, 05:50 PM   #5148
Drake
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If I'm a Democrat PAC, I might fund those ads on FB just to combat pockets of blue voter apathy.
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Old 10-26-2020, 07:21 PM   #5149
Kodos
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
And the election is happening right now. It is getting too late for him to really be able to change course.

If the numbers are right (or even remotely close), Biden will win.

It's like the Titanic trying to change course with it's too-small rudder.
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Old 10-26-2020, 08:31 PM   #5150
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If the numbers are right (or even remotely close), Biden will win.

"If the numbers turn out to be wrong, if Donald Trump is right and these pollsters are wrong about this race then people like me are going to have to find a new profession." - Frank Luntz 10/23/2000
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