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Old 12-01-2020, 11:56 AM   #901
henry296
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I've seen some analysis that does suggest you should go for 2 in that situation when you are down 8. If the chance of making the 2 pt conversion is >50% then you can then win with another TD and avoid OT and if you fail then you get another chance.

Now with 12 seconds left that doesn't seem like it matters, but with a few minutes left it would. I'm guessing Pederson's chart says to go for it.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:12 PM   #902
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Yep, assuming it's a 50% chance to make a 2-pt conversion & a 95% chance to make a XP the odds clearly favor going for 2 when you are down 8 & will only have time for one more possession.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:18 PM   #903
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Yep, assuming it's a 50% chance to make a 2-pt conversion & a 95% chance to make a XP the odds clearly favor going for 2 when you are down 8 & will only have time for one more possession.

Plus for an underdog, winning in OT is less than a 50% chance as well.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:35 PM   #904
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We've had discussions about this strategy in the past. If you're down by 14 pts, it makes sense to go for 2 on the first TD. If you make it, you can go ahead by 1 on the 2nd TD. If you miss it, you can still tie with a 2 pt conversion. If you miss both, then you're screwed. I don't have the mathematical chart handy, but it broke down to 62.5% chance winning.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:37 PM   #905
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Personally, I'd put off going for 2 until I absolutely need to, which would be IF you get to the point of recovering the onsides kick, scoring a TD in the remaining 10 seconds and then having to decide whether to tie the game or go for the win. I don't see any reason to put yourself in the possible situation of needing the 2-point conversion just to tie if it fails after the 1st TD. Put it off, then you've got the choice to tie or win down 23-22.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:40 PM   #906
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Also, I don't thnk the Eagles have a greater than 50% of doing anything this year except losing. Granted, it looked like Seattle handed them the 2 point conversion, so I guess you have to figure out how to mathematically adjust for "defensive apathy," but if that team could convert 2 yard plays with regularity, they probably wouldn't be 3-7-1.
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Old 12-01-2020, 12:55 PM   #907
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Also, I don't thnk the Eagles have a greater than 50% of doing anything this year except losing. Granted, it looked like Seattle handed them the 2 point conversion, so I guess you have to figure out how to mathematically adjust for "defensive apathy," but if that team could convert 2 yard plays with regularity, they probably wouldn't be 3-7-1.

Right, but then that also means you have less of a chance to win in OT.
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:03 PM   #908
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Personally, I'd put off going for 2 until I absolutely need to, which would be IF you get to the point of recovering the onsides kick, scoring a TD in the remaining 10 seconds and then having to decide whether to tie the game or go for the win. I don't see any reason to put yourself in the possible situation of needing the 2-point conversion just to tie if it fails after the 1st TD. Put it off, then you've got the choice to tie or win down 23-22.

Scenario 1 - Go for it on the 1st TD

1. Make the 2 pt, kick the XP - Win
2. Miss the 2 pt, make the 2pt - OT
3. Miss the 2 pt, miss the 2pt - Lose

Scenairo 2 - Go for it on the 2nd TD

1. Make the XP, Make the 2pt - Win
2. Make the XP, Miss the 2pt - Lose

Your strategy takes the OT out of the equation. It's always better to get information earrlier rather than later. If you wait and miss the 2pt conversion on the 2nd try, you can't go back and go for 2pts on the first try.
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:25 PM   #909
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My strategy does not take OT out of the equation if you kick both XPs!

In my scenario, assuming the XPs are a given, you never have a scenario where you need to go for two 2-point conversions just to tie. You kick the 1st XP and are essentially "guaranteed" no worse than OT if you kick the 2nd XP and if you feel like you've got the right play to win, you go for 2.
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:26 PM   #910
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Right, but then that also means you have less of a chance to win in OT.

Which is why I kick the 1st XP and leave the "go for the win" part until I get to the actual chance to win, after the 2nd TD.
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:44 PM   #911
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It's always better to get information earlier rather than later.

One other thing - I agree with this, but it only matters where you need to know how many scores (or what combination of TD/FGs) you have to get to tie/win. In this scenario, you always need 2 TDs, the decision is just go for tie or win. You already know that before you even scored the 1st TD, so the "more information" thing is irrelevant.

Going for 2 the 1st time increases the possibility of a straight-up loss if you miss both 2-point conversions. Kicking the 1st XP guarantees that you don't have to make the choice to tie/win until the very end.
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Old 12-01-2020, 01:46 PM   #912
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If we assume that the 2pt conversion is 50%, the XP is 100% and that winning in OT is 50%...

Going for 2 on the first TD will result in a win 62.5% of the time. Going for 2 after the 2nd TD wins 50% of the time, and kicking the XPs result in a win 50% of the time.

Late and Trailing: Always Go For 2 Down Eight After a Touchdown – Predictive Football
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Old 12-01-2020, 02:02 PM   #913
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I can't argue with the math, but the decision tree does not make sense to me. Maybe it's because I don't see the math on how you get to 62.5% (or more precisely, how it factors in the missed 2 pt conversion).

Bottom line for me, I don't want to have to chase the tie/OT on a missed 2 pt conversion. Mentally, I'd rather know I have OT in my pocket as the worst outcome than have that be the best outcome.
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Old 12-01-2020, 02:30 PM   #914
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One other thing - I agree with this, but it only matters where you need to know how many scores (or what combination of TD/FGs) you have to get to tie/win. In this scenario, you always need 2 TDs, the decision is just go for tie or win. You already know that before you even scored the 1st TD, so the "more information" thing is irrelevant.

Going for 2 the 1st time increases the possibility of a straight-up loss if you miss both 2-point conversions. Kicking the 1st XP guarantees that you don't have to make the choice to tie/win until the very end.

What advantage do you have by waiting to make that choice? None at all.

If you decide to go for two to win it, then you can either make it more miss it. If you find out earlier, then you have a chance to go for two again and still tie it. If you find out later, then it's too late to go back and go for 2 pts.
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Old 12-01-2020, 02:37 PM   #915
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I can't argue with the math, but the decision tree does not make sense to me. Maybe it's because I don't see the math on how you get to 62.5% (or more precisely, how it factors in the missed 2 pt conversion).

You win 50% win you get the 2pt conversion first.
You go to OT 25% of the time when you miss 2pt, then get 2pt. If you win half of those OT's, that's 12.5%


Quote:
Bottom line for me, I don't want to have to chase the tie/OT on a missed 2 pt conversion. Mentally, I'd rather know I have OT in my pocket as the worst outcome than have that be the best outcome.

But you're looking at it from the perspective of assuming you'll miss the 2pt conversion. When you make it, you're down by 6 and just need an XP to win.

Mentally, I don't want to miss the 2 pt conversion and lose by 1 pt because I wasted an opportunity on the previous possession.
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Old 12-01-2020, 02:43 PM   #916
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Maybe it's because I don't see the math on how you get to 62.5% (or more precisely, how it factors in the missed 2 pt conversion).

There are 4 possible outcomes (since we're ignoring ties). Win in regulation, win in OT, lose in regulation, lose in OT.

With your strategy, kicking the XP after the first TD,

Going for 2 after TD #2:
50% Win in regulation
50% Lose in regulation

If you kick the XP and go to OT:
50% OT win
50% OT lose

Either way, kicking the XP after the 1st TD will result in a win 50% of the time.

If you go for 2 after the 1st TD:
50% Win in regulation
12.5% Win in OT
12.5% Lose in OT
25% Lose in regulation

So if you make it the first time, you win the game (obviously assuming you get that 2nd TD and kick the XP) by 1 point in regulation. That's 50% right there.

If you miss it (50%), you still have a chance to get the game to OT and win there. 50% chance to convert the 2nd try, and 50% chance to win in OT (50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%).

50% + 12.5% = 62.5%.


Think of it this way: You are given two options.

1) You get one coin toss. Heads, you win, tails, you lose

2) You get one coin toss. Heads, you win, tails, you get two more coin tosses, and if they are both heads, you still win.

Playing for OT or waiting until TD #2 to go for 2 is choosing option 1.
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Old 12-01-2020, 03:53 PM   #917
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I hope they play on Tuesday and I hope the system that's supposed to drop a couple of inches of snow on Kentucky is timed perfectly for PA on Tuesday evening.

Too bad the game isn't tonight. Probably about 3" or so of snow so far today in Pittsburgh with some light snow showers right now that are supposed to continue this evening.
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Old 12-01-2020, 04:24 PM   #918
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In my scenario, assuming the XPs are a given

Probably worth noting the Eagles had already missed one.
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Old 12-01-2020, 06:36 PM   #919
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Old 12-02-2020, 11:18 AM   #920
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Are you ready for some Wednesday afternoon footballlllll? A Wednesday afternoon party?
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Old 12-02-2020, 11:59 AM   #921
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Old 12-02-2020, 01:52 PM   #922
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Just seen that this is on at pretty much a perfect time here! That’s my evening sorted!
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Old 12-02-2020, 02:26 PM   #923
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Might as well get this farce underway

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Old 12-02-2020, 03:04 PM   #924
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Old 12-02-2020, 03:11 PM   #925
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Any bets on what the viewing numbers are going to be for this game? I don't know crap about gambling but I am setting the rating number at 3.4 and 5.33 million viewers. Those are the numbers for the first preseason game last year between the Falcons and the Broncos.
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Old 12-02-2020, 06:32 PM   #926
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Sounds like Bud Dupree has a torn ACL.
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Old 12-05-2020, 12:00 PM   #927
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What's up with the odd Washington-Pittsburgh broadcast map?

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Old 12-05-2020, 01:46 PM   #928
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Every time I see WFT I read it as "what the f***". I think it must be a conscious decision at this point because it's been long enough that I should know better by now.
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Old 12-05-2020, 04:48 PM   #929
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Every time I see WFT I read it as "what the f***". I think it must be a conscious decision at this point because it's been long enough that I should know better by now.

Same. Literally just did it with the post above, and had to re-read it.

Edit: I'm also sort of hoping that they keep the generic name. It's different enough to be cool. And mistaking it for WTF pretty much describes the franchise since 2000.

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Old 12-05-2020, 08:55 PM   #930
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Sounds like a generic soccer team (which is a /lot/ of soccer teams).

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Old 12-06-2020, 02:35 AM   #931
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Any bets on what the viewing numbers are going to be for this game? I don't know crap about gambling but I am setting the rating number at 3.4 and 5.33 million viewers. Those are the numbers for the first preseason game last year between the Falcons and the Broncos.

Football is king. It averaged 10.8 million viewers - bigger than this year's World Series, NBA Finals, or Stanley Cup.
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Old 12-06-2020, 07:31 AM   #932
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Football is king. It averaged 10.8 million viewers - bigger than this year's World Series, NBA Finals, or Stanley Cup.

A stand alone NFL game regardless of the matchup is going to get huge numbers.

What they should have done was do the game in prime time with an extended Super Bowl halftime show for the tree lighting.
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Old 12-06-2020, 01:12 PM   #933
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Holy Cow! The Browns are ripping the Titans a new one.
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Old 12-06-2020, 01:27 PM   #934
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Mitch Trubisky would be worth his draft slot if he could play the Lions year round. Of course that's also true from everyone from Sam Darnold to Alex Smith to P.J Walker so it doesn't really prove much.
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Old 12-06-2020, 02:21 PM   #935
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Old 12-06-2020, 02:57 PM   #936
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Mitch Trubisky gonna Mitch Trubisky
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:00 PM   #937
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Mitch Trubisky gonna Mitch Trubisky

Yeah I think I would have run the ball all 3 downs and took my chances with my defense.

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Old 12-06-2020, 03:03 PM   #938
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Yeah I think I would have run the ball all 3 downs and took my chances with my defense.

I agree with throwing there. A NFL team with a functional QB probably makes the same decision when backed up like that with the opposing team sitting on 2 more timeouts and only up 3. They also really haven't stopped the Lions all day (nearly 500 yards of offense).

You have to play for the win. Your QB also has to understand you can't be careless with the ball.
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:14 PM   #939
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Jets. LOL.
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:14 PM   #940
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:16 PM   #941
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:18 PM   #942
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There's no way the Jets coaches aren't actively trying to lose that game. 2 plays in a row they go man to man zero high and dare the Raiders to throw behind them.

Gase is an idiot but Gregg Williams is actually a competent co-ordinator. That smells as fishy as hell.
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Old 12-06-2020, 03:50 PM   #943
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There's no way the Jets coaches aren't actively trying to lose that game. 2 plays in a row they go man to man zero high and dare the Raiders to throw behind them.

Gase is an idiot but Gregg Williams is actually a competent co-ordinator. That smells as fishy as hell.

eh.

They have to know they are all getting shit canned so why tank.
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Old 12-06-2020, 04:15 PM   #944
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That was some first rate J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets there
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Old 12-06-2020, 05:27 PM   #945
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Feels like Russ is reading his own press clippings and reading his own hype right now. Just some bad play rather than staying inside the offense and keeping the ball moving.
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Old 12-06-2020, 07:17 PM   #946
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eh.

They have to know they are all getting shit canned so why tank.

Perhaps Gregg Williams is trying to get the bounty-gate stain off of him by being the defensive coordinator on two 0-16 teams?
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Old 12-06-2020, 07:19 PM   #947
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Joe Judge is the real deal. Can't wait for Barkley to come back and get a little more talent.
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Old 12-06-2020, 08:10 PM   #948
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Joe Judge is the real deal. Can't wait for Barkley to come back and get a little more talent.
That Belichick coaching tree looking good all of a sudden with these young up & comers Judge, Flores & Crennel.
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Old 12-06-2020, 08:12 PM   #949
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Vrabel been doing a nice job also
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Old 12-06-2020, 09:48 PM   #950
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Originally Posted by Atocep View Post
I agree with throwing there. A NFL team with a functional QB probably makes the same decision when backed up like that with the opposing team sitting on 2 more timeouts and only up 3. They also really haven't stopped the Lions all day (nearly 500 yards of offense).

You have to play for the win. Your QB also has to understand you can't be careless with the ball.

Yeah but with Trubisky I run.
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