Straight Outta The Box: Chief Rum Takes Over The FOF 2004 Cards

[Chief Rum]

Note: The following post goes into the inaccuracies that will liekly come out of my effort to grade the free agencies of the various teams thus far. If you fall asleep during math lectures, hate stats, and/or don't give a rat's ass about the "numbers behind the numbers", I recommend you skip past this post and move on to the next one. I thought I would give you fair warning.

I am inclined to move forward to the draft fairly quickly, but it would be out of keeping with this dynasty to not provide a recap of free agency to this point. Largely, there are no remaining big time free agents--at least that are expected to make so big a spalsh next year that it is worth spending too much time on them.

So how teams have fared thus far in free agency is probably a good indication of how their whole offseason--excepting the draft, of course--is and will be going.

I have devised a relatively simple way of showing who looks to have gained a lot, and who looks to have dropped. I feel I should warn you, though. The statisticians out there may cringe, because I can't say that even talent gains or losses in any particular areas are all that accurate. To undertake a truly accurate look at free agency would take an exhausting amount of time. So I devised a quick spreadsheet method based on the Roster Strengths pages.

What makes it so potentially inaccurate is that I make very little effort to make the roster strengths for the teams match up across the whole free agent process.

For instance, the first time I measure the quality of the rosters is at the end of last season. So they are judged using my scout last year, and including players soon to be retired.

Then the next time I measure is just before free agency, when I have a new scout, making it difficult to judge how much the differences I see are due to retirement/free agent losses and how much simply from having changed scouts.

The third time I do the measure is at the point it is at now, after free agency and before the draft. This should be on a similar scale to the second time (same scout).

None of this takes into account the fact that the Roster Strengths screens are based on a relative system, in which the strongest team at a position is assigned '100' and the weakest '0', and then a scale between the abilities of the two units' strengths is set up and divided into a hundred parts. What you see is how many "parts" along the scale a team is away from the weakest and closer to the strongest.

So for instance, a Patriots team with a 98 in Quarterback is just a shade less than the "curve-setting" '100' team, let's say Tennessee. That is relatively intuitive. What you need to consider, though, is that, since the '100' and '0' teams won't necessarily stay at the same talent level or even the same teams won't be in place at the ends of the scale, the scale itself will constantly be changing and comparing RB before free agency to after free agency might be so different it is akin to the old adage of comparing apples to oranges.

Still, there's a very general accuracy to it, so I will apply it so (generally), and not take too much from the specifics, which are more prone to severe error individually.

On top of all that, I also make no effort to add in weights for positions, to make QB, for instance, more important than FB, and I also don't use multiple numbers for positions with multiple members (wide receivers don't count twice just because they have two players instead of one in a starting lineup, for instance, and I haven't even given a thought as to whether they should or not--way too complicated for what I want to do).

So having said all that, take the following numbers in the follow up posts with a grain of salt. They may not be as accurate as it seems.

But, hey, we don't want to really know who the big winners in free agency are right away anyway, do we? Grading free agency is more of a gut feeling than a mathematical exercise anyway.

So, without further ado, here's my system. Each team will have listed it's total average Roster Strength at the end of last season, and averages for the offense and defense. Then I will show the same averages for right now. And then end with the difference.

My determination of who the winners and losers are is solely based on that final difference.

You'll see what I am talking about when I start things up here.

Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

dola (is that necessary in my own dynasty thread? ),

One other inaccuracy I forgot to mention. On the Roster Strengths pages, I am only using the Starter lists, not the Reserves. So a team with particularly strong reserves in place might still have numbers that look pretty good despite apparent huge losses among their starters. Basically, the good reserves become starters, the unseen reserve lists go to crap, and we get a team that, talent-wise, looks no different than the one that took the field last year--despite wholesale changes.

CR

[Desnudo]

*wakes up*

The who is in the what now?

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Desnudo
*wakes up*

The who is in the what now?

Thank you, Jasper.

CR

[General Mike]

Good stuff as always Chief. Confusing, but good.

[Chief Rum]

Kings Of Free Agency

SAN FRANCISCO FORTY-NINERS

Roster Strength +/-: +14.4

Key Players Lost: RB Garrison Heart, WR Tai Streets, DE John Engleberger, CB Jason Webster

Key Players Signed: G Chris Villarial, DE Lamar King, CB Antoine Wingfield, CB Fred Thomas

Comments: The Niners' haul doesn't look like much, but that was because they didn't lose much in the first place. King is an upgrade over Engelberger, and the Niners will get good enough corner play from either Wingfield or Thomas to replace Webster. Giys like Hearst or Streets seem liekly to be replaced from within.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Roster Strength +/- : +11.2

Key Players Lost: QB Quincy Carter, RB Troy Hambrick, C Gennaro Di Napoli, T Ryan Young, DE Ebenezer Ekuban, DE Greg Ellis, DT Michael Myers, CB Derek Ross

Key Players Signed: QB Tommy Maddox, RB James Jackson, T Walter Jones, T John Tait, DE Jevon Kearse, DE MArco COleman, DT Cornelius Griffin

Comments: The Cowboys' free agency looks very strong. They lost some solid players, but pretty much in each case, replaced them with better guys. Jones is one of the best tackles in the league. Kearse is a difference maker at defensive end. Griffin will at least provide about as much production as Myers. Maddox and Jackson are upgrades over the guys they are replacing from last year, and if Maddox puts up another year like he did witht he Steelers, this could be a dantastic class.

ATLANTA FALCONS

Roster Strength +/- : +10.8

Key Players Lost: RB Warrick Dunn, G Travis Claridge, DE Brady Smith. DE Travis Hall, ILB Chris Draft, OLB Sam Rogers, CB Kevin Mathis, CB Ray Buchanan, FS Keion Carpenter, SS Corey Hall

Key Players Signed: WR Robert Ferguson, G Jamie Nails, G Todd Perry, DT Chester McGlockton, DT Dan Wilkinson, ILB Don Davis, ILB Orlando Ruff, OLB Na'il Diggs, CB Champ Bailey, CB Tyrone Poole, S Doug Evans, S Donovan Darius

Comments: The Falcons entered the offseason losing several starters from one of the worst defenses in the league, which is a situation with both positves and negatives. I think it's safe to say they turned this into a positive. The Falcons rebuilt their front seven, getting massive vet tackles McGlockton and WIlkinson, and bringing in three linebackers, including Diggs, to join up with Brooking there. The standout signings, though, were int he secondary, where the Jags' got two of the league's best in Bailey and Darius. They also improved their one hole on offense by signing Nails to replace Claridge.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Roster Strength +/- : +10.4

Key Players Lost: RB Dorsey Levens (ret), WR Ike Hilliard, DT Cornelius Griffin, OLB Brandon Short

Key Players Signed: FB Dan Kreider, WR Bobby Shaw, DT Steve Martin, OLB Adalius Thomas, CB Jeff Burris

Comments: Like the Niners, this is a situation where the Giants more improved from within and a couple key free agents, rather than making a big splash in free agency alone. Shaw and Martin represent upgrades at those positions, and Thomas and Burris add depth to the defense. Kreider was one of the best fullbacks available.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Roster Strength +/- : +10.1

Key Players Lost: TE Byron Chamberlain, G Dave Fiore, DE Bruce Smith (ret), DE Regan Upshaw, DE Marco Coleman, DE Peppi Zellner, DT Jermaine Haley, DT Brandon Noble, CB Champ Bailey, SS Andre Lott

Key Players Signed: TE Fred Baxter, DE Eric Hicks, SE Brady Smith, DT Jason Fisk, CB Troy Vincent, S Mark Roman

Comments: You can poke holes in what the Skins did, noting the loss of Bailey and the unimpressive line talent they brought in to replace a devastated unit, but the fact is, the Skins improves just about everywhere. The big key is a guy that's not even mentioned above--the Skins re-signed top free agent safety David Terrell, one of the best in the league. They shouldn't miss Bailey too much, considering Vincent is even better. And Roman is a sharp upgrade over Lott. The secondary is simply excellent. Hicks and Smith won't replace the lost depth at defensive end, but they are as good as any one of the players the Skins lost. And Fisk is an upgrade at defensive tackle from either of the two lost starters there. Baxter should also be more than good enough to replace Chamberlain at tight end. How about that NFC Eats, eh? Three teams in the top five (poor Eagles).

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Roster Strength +/- : +9.6

Key Players Lost: RB Michael Bennett, TE Jim Kleinsasser, WR D'Wayne Bates, G David Dixon, G Chris Liewinski, T Lindsay Everett, T Mike Rosenthal, DT Billy Lyon, DE Lance Johnstone, DE KEnny Mixon, OLB Henri Crockett, CB Brian WIlliams, SS Corey Chavous

Key Players Signed: FB Greg Comella, WR Troy Brown, T Spencer Folau, DE Bobby Hamilton, DT John Browning, ILB Ted Johnson, ILB Chris Draft, S Damien Robinson

Comments: By appearances, it looks like the Vikings actually lost a lot, and didn't sign enough players to replace them all. That is technically true--the Vikings still need defensive line and secondary help, and they lost a lot on the line they haven't yet replaced. Still, you have to like what the Vikings did fix. The one lineman they got--Folau--is much better than either departed starters at the position. Brown is a nice upgrade over Bates and gives the Vikings a legit receiver opposite of Moss. Comella was the best fullback available in free agency. On defense, Hamilton is a big time end, and Browning should do well beside Hovan at defensive tackle. Johnson and Draft are solid linebackers, and Robinson is actually quite a bit more skilled than Chavous, who was probably played the best of all the free agents to leave Minnesota this season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Roster Strength +/- : +7.3

Key Players Lost: QB Tommy Maddox, RB Amos Zeroue, FB Dan Kreider, T Todd Fordham, T Marvel Smith, DE Aaron Smith, SS Mike Logan

Key Players Signed: QB Mark Brunell, FB Patrick Hape, T Vaughn Parker, T Mike Gandy, DE Anthony Pleasant, ILB Wali Rainer

Comments: The Steelers were in the nice position of not really losing much, and the top guys that they did lose overachieved last season, meaning they may be easier to replace than you would think. And coming off of a championship season, that's a nice thing to have. Still, despite his better talent, you have to wonder if Brunell can be as good as Maddox was. We'll just have to wait and see. Elsewhere, the Steelers got better at tackle with Parker and Gandy, and Pleasant is an upgrade over Smith at defensive end. Rainer is a nice addition to an already deep linebacker corps. Hape won't be much of a fall off from Kreider. The Steelers did swing and miss on several of the top defensive tackles--apparently they view it as a need area and they still need to address it. Is it scary that this is the first AFC team on this list? Can you say "power shift"?

CR

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by General Mike
Good stuff as always Chief. Confusing, but good.

Well, that last stat thing is confusing. I would hope most of the rest of it isn't, though. Just detailed.

Glad to see you're enjoying it.

CR

[Chief Rum]

They Helped Themselves A Bit

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Roster Strength +/-: +6.4

Key Players Lost: RB Emmitt Smith (ret), T L.J. Shelton

Key Players Signed: QB Marc Bulger, G Dave Fiore, T Damion McIntosh, T Matt Hill, CB Dexter McCleon, CB Ray Buchanan, S Arturo Freeman

Comments: The Cards didn't move up into the next level, because they didn't really sign any stars, but they added several key players to improve poor areas. McCleon, Buchanan and the re-signing of David Barrett makes the Cardinals very deep at their weakest psoition last year in cornerback. Both McIntosh and Hill are young, developing tackles who even know represent upgrades over last year's tackles. Fiore also fills a hole on the line, and Bulger has tremendous upside at QB.

HOUSTON TEXANS

Roster Strength +/-: +5.6

Key Players Lost: FB Greg Comella, G Fred Weary, G Zach Wiegert, T Greg Robinson-Randall, DE Junior Ioane, DT Steve Martin, DT Seth Payne, OLB Charlie Clemons

Key Players Signed: G Cosey Coleman, G Bob Hallen, T Victor Riley, DE Lance Johnstone, DT Brentson Buckner, ILB Mike Maslowski

Comments: The Texans lost some solid players on both lines, but they more than made up for it. Coleman and Riley are two of the top linemen in the league and Hallen a worthy replacement as well. The line is arguably one fo the team's top strengths now. Buckner is an underrated defensive tackle who should be nearly as good as Martin was, and Johnstone is a good upgrade at defensive end. Maslowski gives the team a legit inside linebacker.

ST. LOUIS RAMS

Roster Strength +/-: +4.8

Key Players Lost: QB Marc Bulger, TE Cameron Cleeland, G Adam Timmerman, G Andy McCollum, T Orlando Pace, T Grant Williams, OLB Tommy Polley, CB Fred Weary

Key Players Signed: TE Jim Kleinsasser, G Fred Weary, OLB Mike Vrabel, CB Chris McAllister, CB Artrell Hawkins

Comments: The Rams must have had some nice reserves in place, because I can't see these losses and those gains equating to a positive free agency. But that's what the numbers say. They do upgrade the secondary in a big way, with the signings of McCallister and Hawkins. But the line takes huge hits. Weary's signing can barely recover the loss of McCollum, the lesser guard, much less the loss of stars like Timmerman and Pace. Kleinsasser is an improvement on Cleeland, and Vrabel will help replace Polley. But as it stands right now, I have to think this team best illustrates the inaccuracies of the system I put together.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Roster Strength +/-: +4.3

Key Players Lost: QB Tim Couch, QB Kelly Holcomb, RB James Jackson, G Shaun O'Hara, G Craig Osika, T Ryan Tucker, DT Orpheus Roye, ILB Brant Boyer, OLB Barry Gardner, CB Anthony Henry

Key Players Signed: G Travis Claridge, T Lindsay Everett, DT John Parrella, ILB Randall Godfrey, OLB Derrick Rodgers, CB Kevin Mathis

Comments: The Browns actually still have some sizable holes to fill, although that can be expected when you come off of an awful season like they just did. Despite those holes, the Browns got a pretty positive outlook to this point ont he strength of some of the star power they landed. Godfrey is the best inside linebacker in football, according to the ratings, so he more than replaces Boyer. He and highly-regarded Parrella make the Browns much, much stronger up the middle of their defense than they were before. Rodgers will help replace Gardner, and Mathis is an upgrade from Henry. They also re-signed Daylon McCutcheon, keeping their one good corner from last year. Claridge is a big upgrade from last year's guards, and Everett is at least as good as the departed Tucker, so the line is also better. Of course, none of this addresses the fact they lost their top two quarterbacks and their second running back. Those areas still need addressing, among other talent-deficient areas.

BUFFALO BILLS

Roster Strength +/-: +4.3

Key Players Lost: RB Travis Henry, FB Sam Gash (ret), TE David Moore, WR Bobby Shaw, T Jonas Jennings, DE Keith McKenzie, OLB Jeff Posey, CB Antoine Wingfield, FS Izell Reese

Key Players Signed: RB Duce Staley, FB Terrelle Smith, TE Jason Dunn, DE Ray Lee Johnson, OLB Mo Lewis, CB Donnie Abraham

Comments: The Bills have yet to address some areas and have seemingly improved other areas that don't stand out as needs from their free agent losses. So it's tough to say right now if the Bills are making the right moves. The early returns seem good, though. Staley is an improvement on Henry, Smith is one of the better fullbacks in the league, and Dunn is a very talented former backup tight end who will finally get a chance to show his stuff. But the Bills have yet to replace Shaw or Jennings, two key starters from last year's offense. The defense is somewhat like this as well. Johnson should be a fine replacement for McKenzie, and Abraham can fill Wingfield's shoes. But Reese has yet to be replaced in the secondary. The big signing, of course, is Lewis, who should be a very nice upgrade from Posey at OLB.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

Roster Strength +/-: +4.0

Key Players Lost: QB Rodney Peete, QB Chris Weinke, FB Brad Hoover, TE Kris Mangum, WR Ricky Proehl (ret), WR Kevin Dyson, G Kevin Donnalley, T Tood Steussie, DT Brentson Buckner, ILB Lester Towns, CB Terry Cousin

Key Players Signed: G Andy McCollum, T Jonas Jennings, OLB Ian Gold, CB Terrell Buckley

Comments: Like the Browns, the Panthers still have quite a few holes, but they get a positive ranking for the sheer strength of the players they did bring in. They faced troubles after losing vet linemen Donnalley and Steussie, but they recovered well in getting McCollum and Jennings, particularly the former. Gold is a difference maker at OLB and could be a star in this defense. Buckley should do well enough to replace Cousin, and the los of Buckner is relatively insignificant, since he didn't start for the panthers, talented or not. The problems are at the offensive skill positions. No one is crying over the loss of Peete or Weinke, but they still need a quarterback, so that's a huge hole. There are also big holes at FB and TE, where two quality players are gone now. Smith and Muhammad remain at WR, but Dyson and Proehl were the starters out wide.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Roster Strength +/-: +3.9

Key Players Lost: RB Corey Dillon, FB Chris Edmonds, WR Peter Warrick, C Rich Braham, G Matt O'Dwyer, DT Oliver Gibson, CB Artrell Hawkins, CB Jeff Burris, FS Mark Roman, SS Rogers Beckett

Key Players Signed: FB Brad Hoover, TE Itula Mili, C J.P. Machado, G Adam Timmerman, DT Seth Payne, S Bracy Walker, S Jason Sehorn

Comments: You can't argue with how the Bengals fixed their line problems after losing the well-regarded Braham and O'Dwyer. Timmerman was the best available guard on the market and one of the best linemen in the league. Machado may end up the best center in the league one day, and he's already among the better ones right now. They also made a mjaor move not noted here by bringing back supreme passrusher Duane Clemons at DE. Payne should be up to the challenge of replacing Gibson. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they have a lot of other holes to fill. They did nothing to replace their lost corners, including Hawkins, and the combo of Walker-Sehorn at S is a good deal less skilled than the Roman-Beckett one from last year. The loss of franchise identity player DIllon is also a huge one, even if he doesn't really rate so high in talent. The Benmgals have yet to bring in a replacement. They did take care of the little stuff in signing solid blue collar skills guys like Hoover and Mili.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Roster Strength +/-: +3.7

Key Players Lost: T Adam Meadows, DT Josh Williams, CB Walt Harris, CB David Macklin

Key Players Signed: CB Willie Williams

Comments: I suppose it's odd to see this as a positive free agency with only one signing. What's important here is what is not stated--the Colts were somehow able to bring back star quarterback Peyton Manning and one of their best defensive players in OLB Marcus Washington. That alone makes this whole free agency for them. Williams is a better corner than either Macklin or Harris, so that's a partial upgrade--although they still need a second corner. Meadows is a tremendous run blocker with very little pass blocking ability, so he will liekly not be missed much. This free agent class shouldn't rank this high, but considering the Manning and Washington signings are also not being counted, you can think of it as one repalcing the other. And in that respect, this has to be considered a somewhat successful free agency for the Colts.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Running In Place

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Roster Strength +/-: +2.9

Key Players Lost: QB Doug Flutie, C Cory Raymer, G Bob Hallen, T Damion McIntosh, T Vaughn Parker, DE Ray Lee Johnson, DT Jason Fisk

Key Players Signed: RB Corey Dillon, T Jason Matthews, ILB Al Wilson, OLB Jeff Gooch

Comments: Well, my system gives the Chargers a slightly positive outlook on free agency so far, but I am finding it hard to be otimistic about a free agency in which a team lsoes four line starters, and only brings in one mediocre replacememnt. But then again, this was the team that had those problems and yet didn't have a line position listed as a need, so maybe htey are indeed deep enough to handle it. There is no doubting they have upgraded themselves at LB, where Wilson is one of the best and Gooch a decent enough addition as well. The defensive gains of that could be countered, though, by the loss of Fisk and Johnson on the defensive line. Dillon is a nice addition from a depth perspective, but the money might have been better spent with Tomlinson already on the roster.

NEW YORK JETS

Roster Strength +/-: +2.5

Key Players Lost: QB Vinny Testaverde (ret), RB Curtis Martin, WR Wayne Chrebet, WR Santana Moss, G Dave Szott, DT Chester McGlockton, OLB Mo Lewis, CB Ray Mickens, CB Donnie Abraham

Key Players Signed: RB Trung Canidate, WR Jerry Rice, T Orlando Pace, DT Warren Sapp, CB Fernando Bryant

Comments: The Jets get some positive out of this out of the sheer star power of the guys they brought in, but the losses they suffered in free agency, and just the overall weakness of the team overall makes this an uncertain honor at best. Sapp and Bryant were two of the best defenders available, but the Jets lost two competent corners, and McGlockton, the player Sapp is replacing, was their best free agent loss, so the gain of landing Sapp is smaller by comparison. Furthewrmore, they didn';t sing a replacement for Lewis, one of their best defenders. On offense, they did the amazing and signed dominating T Pace. But they at best stayed the same and likely got worse but replacing Martin, Moss and Chrebet with Rice and Canidate, and they don't have a replacement for Testaverde--and in this league, Pennington isn't all he's made out to be in real life.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Roster Strength +/-: +1.3

Key Players Lost: QB Mark Brunell, TE Kyle Brady, WR Jermaine Lewis, WR J.J. Stokes, C Brad Meester, G Jamar Nesbit, T Maurice Williams, OLB Keith Mitchell, OLB Danny Clark, CB Fernando Bryant, CB James Trapp, SS Donovan Darius

Key Players Signed: WR James Thrash, C Kevin Flynn, G Kevin Donnalley, T Todd Wade, OLB Henri Crockett, CB Corey Fuller, CB Ray Mickens, S Tyrone Carter

Comments: The Jags get a slightly positive free agency out of this, although it's obviously too close to call at this point. They did well to replace their line, which was hard hit by free agency. Flynn is one of the league's best centers, and Donnalley is a tested veteran with good all-around skills. Wade isn't as good as Williams, but he is also solid. The Jags didn't do so well in the secondary, though, where they were also hard hit. They did get the bodies at least, with a starter quality corner in Mickens, a solid safety in Carter and a decent second corner in Fuller. The problem is that those guys are replacing Bryant and Darius, two fo the best int he league at their position, and Trapp, who is at least as good as Fuller. Crockett was a decent save at linebacker to replace Mitchell and Clark, but they need more there, too. Neither Lewis nor Stokes were world-beaters, so Thrash is an upgrade there, and Brunell was the backup at QB. The loss of Brady could hurt, though. The Jags did some things--but I am not sure it's enough.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Roster Strength +/-: +0.8

Key Players Lost: TE Wesley Walls (ret), WR Robert Ferguson, WR Antonio Freeman, WR Donald Driver, G Marco Rivera, DT Gilbert Brown, OLN Na'il Diggs, OLB Hannibal Navies, CB Bryant Westbrook, FS Michael Hawthorne

Key Players Signed: WR Keyshawn Johnson, G Damien Woody, OLB Barrett Green, OLB Adrian Ross, CB James Trapp, S Izell Reese

Comments: The Packers look to be the very definition of standing still in this free agency. They have a replacement for most of their departed free agents, but few were better or even much worse than those they replaced. And on a team that didn't get into the playoffs in a bad division, that's not a good thing. Johnson was a solid get for this class, but they are going to need more receiving help to replace three of their top four receivers and a tight end. At guard, Woody is a passable player, but Rivera was better. Green and Ross are younger, developing linebackers and they should step in well for the Pack on the outside. But Diggs was a very solid player himself. Trapp and Reese are better than the guys they replace, but not by much. And the Packers did not sign a replacement for Brown.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Roster Strength +/-: +0.1

Key Players Lost: WR Travis Taylor, C Mike Flynn, DT Kelly Gregg, OLB Cornell Brown, ILB Edgerton Hartwell, ILB Bernardo Harris, CB Chris McCallister, CB Corey Fuller, CB Tommy Knight, SS Tyrone Carter

Key Players Signed: RB Michael Pittman, WR Tai Streets, C Rich Braham, DE Kenny Mixon, DT Ted Washington, DT Shaun Rogers, DT Henry Ford, OLB Eric Barton, CB Bobby Taylor, CB Jason Webster

Comments: The Ravens should be proud of having been able to reach even this point. They supplied a lot of quality free agents to this class, and they needed to sign a lot of players to even begin to approach breaking even. Will the new mix of players work as well as the last group? Only time will tell. Two of the keys for the offense that aren't even listed there was the re-signing of WR Marcus Robinson and T Orlando Brown. Those two players are very key, especially in light of the departure of Taylor from the receivers corp, and Flynn from the line. Streets and Braham probably come in a little worse than those two, but their overall play isn't much worse, so the Ravens should still be solid on offense. The defensive line was a weak part of the Ravens' defense last season, so this free agency has them doing a very solid job of building it up. Washignton was one of the best quality DT's out there, and Mixon is a solid get at DE. They also added a lot of depth there. They lost far more at linebacker than they gained in just Barton, but this free agency might key a switch to a 4-3, for which the Ravens are already well-suited (Boulware, Lewis and now Barton would be the backers). Neither Taylor nor Webster is as good as the departed McCallister, but it's probably true that they together are better than McCallister and fellow departed starter Fuller. So in that you could also have a significant upgrade. There was plenty to talk about in this "average" free agency.

DENVER BRONCOS

Roster Strength +/-: -1.2

Key Players Lost: FB Patrick Hape, DT Darrius Holland, ILB Al Wilson, OLB Ian Gold, CB Lenny Walls

Key Players Signed: TE Kyle Brady, CB Andre Dyson, S Keion Carpenter

Comments: How shocking is this? The Broncos lose two of the best linebackers in the league, and two other defensive starters besides, only sing three total players--and finishes just below the break-even point. Go figure. Only thing I know is, they haven't signed anyone at the lienbacker position, so they lost a lot there. Dyson and Carpenter only improve the secondary slightly, and the Broncos didn't sign anyone to replace Holland or Hape. Brady was a solid signing at tight end, but the Broncos are always trong there anyway. I think time will show this to be a worse free agency for this team than it appears.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Roster Strength +/-: -1.9

Key Players Lost: TE Jason Dunn, WR Dante' Hall, WR Eddie Kennison, WR Johnnie Morton, T John Tait, DE Eric Hicks, DT John Browning, ILB Mike Maslowski, CB William Bartee, CB Dexter McCleon, CB Eric Warfield, FS Jerome Woods, SS Greg Wesley

Key Players Signed: WR Antonio Freeman, G Jamar Nesbit, DT Chad Eaton, OLB Carlos Emmons, CB David Macklin, CB Walt Harris

Comments: The Chiefs started out really strong, and it looked like they were going to make a big impact in free agency. But then they kinda limped to the end, and all the free agents they had let go started filtering away and making their take look worse and worse by comparison. So I am not surprised to see that they have fallen a bit. The loss of Dunn is small, because he was a backup to the best tight end in the game in Tony Gonzalez, and Nesbit is as solid a guard as Tait was a tackle, so the Chiefs are fairly even or unhurt there. But for all his skills, Freeman can't replace an entire receivers corp by himself, and that's where things stand right now. On defense, Eaton was a nice signing at DT, but he is just a replacement for Browning, and Hicks wasn't replaced at all (although, to be fair, he was just a pass-rush specialist). The tremendous gain of Emmons, one of the best linebackers in free agency, is countered by the loss of Maslowski in the middle. And the worst area for the Chiefs was in the secondary. Macklin and Harris are okay, but the threesome of corners the Chiefs lost are probably better, particularly McCleon. And they signed no one to replace either of their departed starting safeties. Ouch!

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Roster Strength +/-: -2.9

Key Players Lost: RB Charlie Rogers, G Jamie Nails, G Todd Perry, T Mark Dixon, T Todd Wade, DE Rob Burnett, DE Jay Williams, DT Jeff Zgonina, CB Terrell Buckley, FS Shawn Wooden

Key Players Signed: None

Comments: Obviously, when you have losses like this and you don't have the cap room to make a single offer, it's going to be a bad free agency. The amazing thing is that the Dolphins had enough left over in reserves to not rate that big of a fall. A lot of that, of course, was simply the fact that they didn't really lose any stars. The place where they are hurt worst is on the line, where they lost four of their five starters. That will be difficult to deal with. But none of the other spots hit--even the defensive line-- was really hit hard enought o cause more than depth problems.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Singing The Free Agent Blues

DETROIT LIONS

Roster Strength +/-: -5.5

Key Players Lost: WR Shawn Jefferson, WR Bill Schroeder, G Ray Brown (ret), G Eric Beverly, T Matt Joyce, DT Dan WIlkinson, DT Shaun Rogers, ILB Wali Rainer, OLB Barrett Green, CB Otis Smith, CB Alex Molden, SS Corey Harris

Key Players Signed: WR Travis Taylor, G Marco Rivera, G Corbin Lacina, OLB Charlie Clemons, CB Fred Weary, CB Artrell Hawkins, S Rogers Beckett

Comments: All in all, I think the Lions did fairly well, considering all that they lost. They were practically certain to be one of free agency's losers, but they were able to do some things so the fall wouldn't be so hard. They lost a lot of receivers, but Taylor is probably better than any of those guys and should make for a fine starting pair with young Charles Rogers. Rivera and Lacina are both solid gaurds, so the Lions hsouldn't see much fall off on the line, where they lost three starters. Clemons will help to replace Green at one OLB spot, and the secondary threesome of Weary, Hawkins and Beckett are an overall improvement over who they had there last year. One problem: the Lions have done nothing to replace Wilkinson at DT, and he was absolutely critical to the team's ever so limited success last year.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Roster Strength +/-: -5.6

Key Players Lost: RB Eddie George, G Tom Ackerman, DE Jevon Kearse, OLB Raymond Wells, CB Andre Dyson

Key Players Signed: None

Comments: The Titans came into free agency with the worst cap situation of any team, so it is little surprise they didn't sign a soul. Like the Dolphins, though, they had the depth to come off looking not too bad from this. Still, this is an obvious step back for the team. It starts weith Kearse, one of the better defensive playrs in the league. After that, though, they got off fairtly easily. Wells was the best of the rest, and he wasn't eventhat good. Ackerman is a decent guard at best, and George and Dyson were at best part time starters.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Roster Strength +/-: -6.0

Key Players Lost: FB Terrelle Smith, WR Jerome Pathon, G Kendyl Jacox, T Spencer Folau, T Victor Riley, DE Darren Howard, DT Grady Jackson, ILB Orlando Ruff, OLB Derrick Rodgers, CB Fred Thomas, CB Dale Carter, FS Victor Green, SS Tebucky Jones (ret)

Key Players Signed: RB Antowain Smith, TE Byron Chamberlain, OLB Danny Clark, CB Charles Woodson, S Corey Harris

Comments: As bad as the Saints' free agency ended up, it could have been much worse. Fortunately for the Saints, they headed off some of the damage by resigning C Jerry Fontenot, one of the best centers in free agency, OLB Sedrick Hodges, a solid linebacker talent, and CB Ashley Ambrose, their best corner last year. Overall, though, the Aints lost a stunning number of players. Three starters on the line walked, and none of them were low-end starters either. One of the best fullbacks int he league left. A defensive line starter and the team's best pass rusher also took off, along with two of the three starting linebackers. Two of the top three corners, and both starting safeties are also gone. Ouch. Ambrose's return and the signing of top notch corner Woodson will at least help the Saints there. That should make for one of the better corner duos in the league. Harris is a very solid safety and should replace Jones, and even be better. Clark will start opposite of Hodges at OLB. The ILB spots, both sets of line holes, and fullback remain open, though, which is the main reason this has been a harsh free agency for the Saints. Replacing Riley and Folau at tackle will be especially difficult.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Roster Strength +/-: -6.8

Key Players Lost: RB Antowain Smith, RB Kevin Faulk, FB Larry Centers (ret), FB Fred McCrary, TE Fred Baxter, TE Christian Fauria, WR Troy Brown, G Damien Woody, T Matt Light, DE Bobby Hamilton, DE Anthony Pleasant, DT Ted Hamilton, ILB Ted Johnson, ILB Don Davis, OLB Mike Vrabel, CB Tyrone Poole

Key Players Signed: RB Eddie Goerge, G Chris Gray, T Maurice Williams, DT Grady Jackson, DT Gilbert Brown, ILB T.J. Slaughter

Comments: The Patriots were the most oft mentioned free agent losers as the days progressed, and the final numbers don't seem to tell too different a stroy. That said, they didn't come out the worst and in some ways even seemed just as good as ever. In sheer numbers, no team canmatch what the Saints lost. They provided players to numerous teams around they league and didn't bid for a single one of them. George will replace Martin, but they didn't sign a FB or another TE to replace their losses there, nor did they get a replacement at WR for Brown. They were deep at WR and TE, though, so maybe this isn't an issue. On the line, they actually may have come out ahead in replacing Woody and Light with Gray and Williams. On defense, Jackson and Brown will try to partly replace the trio of starters allowed to walk there, while Slaughter was added to an already deep linebacker corps (none of the three linebackers to leave via free agency were starters, if you can believe it). The team still has yet toa ddress the loss of Poole at one corner spot or their lack of defensive ends to replace the two they lost. Still, I am rather shocked that they have come out as well as they have.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Roster Strength +/-: -7.4

Key Players Lost: TE Itula Mili, WR Bobby Engram, WR Darrell Jackson, G Chris Gray, G Steve Hutchinson, T Walter Jones, T Matt Hill, DE Lamar King, DE Chike Okeafor, DT Chad Eaton, ILB Randall Godfrey, CB Willie Williams, FS Doug Evans, SS Damien Robinson

Key Players Signed: RB Michael Bennett, G Tom Ackerman, DE Regan Upshaw, DE Aaron Smith, ILB Bernardo Harris, CB Artrell Hawkins

Comments: The Seahawks didn't just lose a lot of free agents, they lost a lot of good ones. They were able to make some small recoveries here and there, but there was no way they could come back from it completely. On offense, the receiving positions and the line were especially hit hard. Four starters, including mammoth star tackle Jones were replaced by one average guard in Ackerman. Two of the top three receivers and the best tight end are also gone, without replacements coming back. Three of the four defensive line starters also walked, although here the Hawks at least got back some quality defensive ends back. Harris is a relatively poor replacement for Godfrey, one of the best linebackers in football. Hawkins is also a downgradfe from Williams, albeit slight, and no safeties were brought in to replace the two that were lost. The Seahawks are really going to pull off some magical moves to come back from this one by next year.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Roster Strength +/-: -8.3

Key Players Lost: RB Thomas Jones, RB Michael Pittman, WR Keyshawn Johnson, G Cosey Coleman, G Kerry Jenkins, DT Warren Sapp, FS Jermaine Phillips

Key Players Signed: RB Curtis Martin, WR Johnnie Morton, G Mike Compton, S Jerome Woods

Comments: The Buccs don't look too bad in the moves they did, excpet in two glaring areas. They did what amounted to nothing at all to replace their biggest losses in Sapp and Coleman. Compton isn't even really up to replacing Jenkins, much less Jenkins. And they didn't sign a DT at all. They did pretty good elsewhere. Woods is an upgrade next to Lynch in the defensive backfield. Morton isn't a big drop off from Johnson at WR. And Martin has more talent and skills than either Jones or Pittman. The Buccs aren't really allt hat bad off, but how they replace those two line stars could be a key to their offseason.

CHICAGO BEARS

Roster Strength +/-: -8.4

Key Players Lost: QB Kordell Stewart, QB Chris Chandler (ret), FB Stanley Pritchett, WR David Terrell, G Corbin Lacina, G Chris Villarrial, T Mike Gandy, T Aaron Gibson, DT Keith Traylor (ret), DT Bryan Robinson

Key Players Signed: FB Fred McCrary, G Kerry Jenkins, G Zack Wiegert, T Barry Sims, DT Michael Myers

Comments: I have noted before that some higher free agency rankings were probably undeserved. I think this might be a case of the opposite, where a team didn't really do quite as bad as it seems. The team has yet to try and replace Stewart and Chandler (I'm not sure how the game is rating Grossman), but I have to think most of the guys they can get will be likely improvements over those two, and they don't even need to get ina bidding war for them. McCrary is better than Pritchett, and Jenkins and Wiegert are upgrades over Lacina and Villarrial. Sims is also better than either of the two tackles, althought eh Bears do still have a second tackle spot to fill. Michael Myers was probably the Bears' best signee, and should be a better exchange for the retired Traylor. The Bears still have plenty of work to do, but I really think they are getting shafted unfairly here.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Roster Strength +/-: -8.9

Key Players Lost: RB Duce Staley, TE Chad Lewis, WR Todd Pinkston, WR James Thrash, OLB Carlos Emmons, CB Troy Vincent, CB Bobby Taylor, FS Clinton Hart

Key Players Signed: WR Darrell Jackson, TE Kris Mangum, CB Terry Cousin

Comments: There are no mistakes here. This free agency has gone about as bad as it looks. The Eagles lost three of the best defenders in the league in Emmons, Vincent and Taylor, and they signed just a mediocre Cousin to replace any of them. Jackson should be competent enough to replace either Pinkston or Thrash, but the Eagles need another receiver to share the load. Mangum looks to be the only upgrade the Eagles signed. They also lost their starting running back. I'm not sure it could get any worse, so it's pretty shocking there's still another team below this one.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Roster Strength +/-: -9.9

Key Players Lost: QB Rich Gannon (ret), WR Tim Brown (ret), WR Jerry Rice, C Barrett Robbins, T Barry Sims, DE Trace Armstrong (ret), DT John Parrella, OLB Eric Barton, OLB Bil Romanowski (ret), CB Charles Woodson, FS Rod Woodson (ret)

Key Players Signed: WR Donald Driver, DE Greg Ellis, OLB Cornell Brown, OLB Steve Foley, S Victor Green

Comments: Even the Eagles can't touch this. Has any team ever been so devastated by free agency and retirement? And, remember, this includes the fact the Raiders managed to resign G Matt Stinchcomb, DT Dana Stubblefield, and SS Anthony Dorsett. All were top players at their positions in this free agency and in the league, and could have left like everyone else. The Raiders used some magic and managed to bring them back, though. Some guys just aren't recoverable, of course. Gannon was the top quarterback in the league. Rod Woodson was the best safety in the league. Romanowski and Armsotrong were both among the better players at their position, and Brown wrapped a long, successful career with a solid final season. And that's just the retirees. Rice, reduced to a backup, is also gone, along with two line starters besides the re-signed Stinchcomb. Stubblefield's partner Parrella is another top defender who is now gone, along with top corner Charles Woodson. Does the list ever stop? All in all, the Raiders had 12 starting spots to replace at the beginning of free agency. Brown and Foley will come in to replace Barton and Romanowski, although it is a step down. Green has the unenviable task of trying to replace Rod Woodson. Two areas the Raiders actually improve is at Armstrong's spot, where they bring in one of the league's best in Ellis, and at Brown's WR spot, where Driver is both younger and better. The good news doesn't go much beyond that, though. This team has gone from talent everywhere to struggling to fill holes in one quick offseason.

CR

[Kokoshin]

CR, Miami is possibly penalised for an error in the original file. I recall (since I can't verify it now) that the contract of Zach Thomas is possibly wrong in the original file (it looks lije a typo).

More or less he commanded 3.5M, 7.5M, 4.5M in the first three years of his contract (if memory serves), so they have around 4M less for free agent spending.

Not that I have studied the file thoroughly, but I started a Fins dynasty and the first three years were awful in the FA market.

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Kokoshin
CR, Miami is possibly penalised for an error in the original file. I recall (since I can't verify it now) that the contract of Zach Thomas is possibly wrong in the original file (it looks lije a typo).

More or less he commanded 3.5M, 7.5M, 4.5M in the first three years of his contract (if memory serves), so they have around 4M less for free agent spending.

Not that I have studied the file thoroughly, but I started a Fins dynasty and the first three years were awful in the FA market.

Heh, heh, well that's the way it goes. I haven't given a thought to editing in guys like Willis McGahee or Mark Field or changing guys like Domanick davis and Rudi Johnson to more appropriate settings.

Since I am already one year through, of course, I don't see Thomas's first year salary, but just the big $7+ M he's due to make this year. Still, even adding $4 M to what the team normally could spend would still only put the Fins up to about $12-13 M, which is still better than just one team--the same Titans teams that is still in a weaker cap situation than Miami even as we speak.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Draft Notes

TEAM NEEDS GOING INTO THE DRAFT, IN DRAFT ORDER

Front Office Football 2004
Team Cap Room and Needs List
   
  Team            Big Need    2nd Need    3rd Need
N.Y. Jets         Start RB    Start G     Start CB    
Cleveland         Start QB    Start CB    Start OLB   
**Arizona         Start RB    Start DE    Start WR    
Washington        Start DT    Start DE    Start RB
New England       Start T     Start FB    Start WR    
Chicago           Start QB    Start CB    Start WR    
Green Bay         Start WR    Start CB    Start OLB   
New Orleans       Start DT    Start T     Start DE    
Philadelphia      Start WR    Start CB    Start RB    
Carolina          Start CB    Start QB    Start TE    
Detroit           Start CB    Start DT    Start RB    
Denver            Start CB    Start ILB   Resrv ILB   
Houston           Start DT    Start WR    Resrv DT    
Kansas City       Start ILB   Start S     Start WR    
Jacksonville      Start T     Start CB    Start TE    
Cincinnati        Start RB    Start CB    Start S     
San Diego         Start CB    Start T     Start WR    
Indianapolis      Start CB    Start DT    Start OLB   
San Francisco     Start RB    Resrv G     Start CB    
Atlanta           Start DE    Start OLB   Resrv DE    
N.Y. Giants       Start C     Start OLB   Resrv RB    
Miami             Start T     Start G     Resrv G     
Baltimore         Start DE    Start S     Resrv WR    
Seattle           Start T     Start TE    Start S     
Minnesota         Start G     Start S     Start CB    
Dallas            Start CB    Resrv CB    Start RB    
Oakland           Start CB    Start QB    Resrv DT    
Buffalo           Start DE    Resrv T     Resrv S     
Tampa Bay         Start ILB   Start G     Resrv G     
Tennessee         Start ILB   Start OLB   Start DT    
St. Louis         Start OLB   Start T     Resrv T     
Pittsburgh        Start DT    Resrv DT    Start DE    

CR

[Kokoshin]

bump... don't want this to be lost in the past

[Chief Rum]

Skill Position Draft Overview

Before one can do a draft, one must take a look at that draft to see what's there, no?

QUARTERBACK

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 0
# 4.0 Or Above: 5

Avg Grade Top 4: 4.6
Avg Grade Top 9: 4.2

Best Players

Bernie Palmer, Northwestern (4.8) (16/58) Very smart and agile. Not all that clutch, and is undersized. Short passes QB. Extremely risky (99% Vol). Mid-to-late first rounder.

Kenneth Poole, Stanford (4.8) (15/59) Faster, justa s agile and stronger than Palmer. Not as smart, and needs a lot of work on his timing and reading defenses. Roll out QB. Very safe pick (14% Vol). Late first rounder.

Mel Penick, Winona State (4.5) (17/54) As fast as Poole, as smart as Palmer, and more agile than both. Lacks strength and size. Needs a lot of help on the longer passes, and in avoiding interceptions. Short passes QB. Very safe pick (15% Vol). Early second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Ray Corlett, Arizona State
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Rod Woodson, Hawaii
Sleeper Pick Teddy Wingfield, Indiana
Bust Pick Palmer

Comments: This is a pretty weak draft at a premier position. I am glad I need to lookat other areas first. There are two Hawaii QBs in the draft--what's up with that?

RUNNING BACK

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 3
# 4.0 Or Above: 5

Avg Grade Top 4: 6.0
Avg Grade Top 9: 4.7

Best Players

Shane Muncy, North Carolina (7.0) {65/67) Big bull of a runner with surprising agility. By far the most powerful every down ball-carrying back, with solid speed as well. Doesn't get downfield well in receiving and doesn't run outside as well as between the tackles. Top 5 pick.

Clay Shepard, Boise State (6.3) (46/67) One of fastest backs in draft. Quick and elusive, with good hands. Could use more power inside, although he still packs a good punch. Smart runner, but needs to work on his route running. Extremely risky pick (99% Vol). Top 10 pick.

Bart Wells, Georgia Tech (53/64) Fastest back available. Very smart. Has solid strength, but could be more agile. Despite speed, he has very little elusiveness, and he isn't as strong inside as Muncy or Shepard. Considered to be a fairly safe pick (29% Vol). Mid-first round pick.

Most Ready To Step In Muncy
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Shannon Bell, Tulane
Sleeper Pick Jorge Curtis, LSU
Bust Pick Shepard

Comments: This position starts off with a punch with three very good backs available, but falls off dramatically after that. The second tier group is fairly deep, though, after the top dogs.

FULLBACK

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 1
# 4.0 Or Above: 4

Avg Grade Top 4: 5.3
Avg Grade Top 9: 4.2

Best Players

Byron Alston, Oregon (6.3) (43/67) A do-everything fullback. Tremendous blocking ability in both pahses of the game. Very solid inside runner. Good receiving skills, but tends to drop too many. Not very smart, will need to be coached. Speed among best at position, but doesn't stand out in any other way. Late first rounder, early second rounder.

Danny Curtis, Virgina Union (5.8) (49/60) Back who packs a punch as a lead blocker. Needs work blocking the pass, though. Solid inside runner and fine receiving skills. Drops too many. Smartest fullback in draft, and one of the fastest, too. More ready to step in than most and is considered low-risk (8% Vol). Early second-rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Curtis
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Brad Kemp, Utah
Sleeper Pick Blaine Jefferson, Lane
Bust Pick Ryan Lynch, Wake Forest

Comments: There are a couple nice fullbacks at the top, but no real standouts. The talent fall is gradual and there is a fair amount of mediocre talents available for teams looking to filla hole.

TIGHT END

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 1
# 4.0 Or Above: 8

Avg Grade Top 4: 5.3
Avg Grade Top 9: 4.7

Best Players

Winfred Bradford, Kansas (6.5) (42/72) Handles both roles of the tight end well. Very strong and smart, maybe the smartest player in the draft. Tremendous blocker, especially in the run. Fine receiving skills as well, but doesn't adjust well to balls and isn't known to be clutch. Not especially atheltic, although he has enough to get by. Mid-to-late first rounder.

Albert Hernandez, Illinois (5.4) (30/62) Best "package". He is smart and strong. He is by far the fastest tight end in the draft, and one of the most agile as well. Despite that and a smaller stature, he is a better blocker than receiver. He get sdownfield well and his hands swallow up everything, but he needs a lot of work int he mental area of the game in receiving situations. Great upside, but also a significant risk (95% Vol). Early second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Bradford
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Carl Kleinsasser, Arkansas State
Sleeper Pick Max Dixon, Virginia Tech
Bust Pick Hernandez

Comments: This position doesn't wow, but there are some players here for the middle rounds. A solid handful of potential difference-making tight ends as well at the top, even though they collectively need a lot of work to get there.

WIDE RECEIVER

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 2
# 4.0 Or Above: 9

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.6
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.7

Best Players

Herman Bernhardt, Penn State (7.6) (57/77) Sky's the limit on this guy. He should start from day one, wherever he goes. He has a touch of dropsy on occasion, and he is a mighty mite receiver (5'10") who can be knocked off route, but he will be one of the fastest men int he league when he first steps ont he field. He is also by far the smartest receiver and perhaps the most agile and elusive as well. There is simply very little this guy can't do. Considered somewhat of a risk (80% Vol), but huge upside. Candidate for top pick.

Eddie Westbrook, Duke (6.3) (41/68) Bernhardt-Lite. Another small receiver with some minor issues with his hands, but he's nearly as fast and elusive as Bernhardt, and has few holes in his game. Not very smart or strong. He is thought to be a very safe pick (8% Vol). Top 15 pick.

Emmitt Downs, Central Florida (5.4) (31/60) Downs is a taller (6'1") possession-type of receiver with decent speed. He isn't very elusive or good int he open field, and he is also going to require some coaching, as he isn't very smart at all. Still, the guy is tough and courageous, willing to go over the middle and catch the tough passes. He is also very solid in the clutch and one of the strongest receivers in the draft. Mid-to-late first rounder.

Hugh Wagner, Boston College (5.0) (32/57) Taller, faster and more agile than Downs, although they could rival each other in ignomious mental achievements. Despite size (6'4"), is weak and needs a lot of work in the weight room. Has extremely soft hands and rarely drops a ball. Has a solid all-around game, but outside of swallowing up throws, he doesn't look to be particularly spectacular at anything. Thought to be a pretty safe pick (22% Vol). Very late first, early second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Bernhardt
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Scottie Conway, Montana
Sleeper Pick Alan Dunn, Mississippi State
Bust Pick Downs

Comments: This looks to be a pretty solid position. There are some nice receivers near the top, even if only one or two of them are true gamebreakers. Below them is a fairly steady decline of talent in a pretty deep second and third tier set of receivers.

CR

[mmarra82]

CR-

Did you take a look at the 2004 draft files that were created? Did you use the draft files imported from TCY or simply the draftees are generated by the game?

Mike Marra
mmarra82
NEW YORK JETS DYNASTY

[Chief Rum]

I just used the draft files from the game.

I have TCY, but I lost the registration code (again), and haven't gotten up the cajones to ask Jim to send it to me again. When my hard drive crashed, my install of TCY went with it (incidientally, I believe I had the registration code in a file on that hard drive as well--how's that for shitty luck?).

So I am not playing TCY now and am not, of course, using draft files from it.

I just didn't think about the other 2004 draft files made available, but then I did the offseason a long, long time ago. I am pretty sure it wasn't done then anyway.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Men In The Trenches Draft Overview

CENTER

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 0
# 4.0 Or Above: 7

Avg Grade Top 4: 5.0
Avg Grade Top 9: 4.4

Best Players

Keith Foster, Southern Mississippi (5.4) (26/63) One of the best combination of strength and agility in the draft, although he isn't the best at either by itself. He is a polished blocker in both phases of the game. Could use more natural strength in his blocking, as well as endurance. Considered a very safe pick (3% Vol). Mid-second rounder.

Lionel Perez, North Carolina (5.1) (35/56) Quick, agile and strong, but dumb as an ox. Perfect stereotypical lineman. A bit undersized at 5'10", and this shows as he is a bette rpass blocker than run blocker. He also could use more blocking strength, although he is very durable. Also considered to be a very safe pick (7% Vol). He seems to be the best prepared center to play from the get-go in the NFL. Mid-to-late second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Perez
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Trent Brady, Hawaii
Sleeper Pick Myron Richardson, Iowa
Bust Pick Oliver Nelson, California

Comments: Although this position lacks true top talent, it is fairly consistent at the top, with a very steady decline in talent. Teams will be able to get a center for not much less than the last one picked, assuming those with the most talent are picked first.

GUARD

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 2
# 4.0 Or Above: 8

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.4
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.6

Best Players

Will Nickell, Washington (7.3) (41/80) Nickell brings it all. He is quick, agile, smart and strong. He has better than 5.0 speed. There is very little he can't do. He hits with force and he can make all the blocks. He's even durable. And no one thinks he will bust (2% Vol). Top 10 pick.

Kim Deskiewicz, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (7.0) (34/80) Although his size does not seem outwardly larger than that of most NFL lineman, "The Desk" is a freakishly strong prospect, and he will likely be among the annual candidates for the Strong Man award. What makes him scary, though, is that he is also the most agile player at his position. He is not a Rhodes Scholar, and will need help learning the game. He has the potential to develop into a dominating lineman who can do it all. Top 15 pick.

Most Ready To Step In Nickell
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Terrelle Hoffman, Nebraska
Sleeper Pick Kendall Benson, Central Washington
Bust Pick Richie Owen, Baylor

Comments: There are two terrific standouts ont op, and then a clifflike drop in talent to the next tier. That next level is fairly steady and level, but it is a good deal back of the top two.

TACKLE

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 3
# 4.0 Or Above: 15

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.8
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.9

Best Players

Mitchell Jennings, Indiana (7.3) (41/79) He is massive, fast andf strong, probably leading the tackle position in all three qualities. He is a halfwit mentally, but he knows enough to block. His speed and strength allows him to be dominating on sweeps, but he could be more agile. While he is a slightly better run blocker than pass blocker, he really can do it all. The consummate all-around lineman. And he is considered a solid and safe pick (11% Vol). Candidate for top pick.

Gus Horner, Vanderbilt (6.4) (31/74) Horner is the ideal pass blocker. He possesses far more agility than any other tackle in this draft, and has as much natural strength as anyone except Strong Man candidates Jennings and Compton (reviewed later). He is also a good deal smarter than Jennings, although that's not all that hard to be. His run blocking needs work, but otherwise he has no holes in his game. Top 10 pick.

Tommy Compton, Kentucky (6.3) (31/73) As smart as Horner and almost as agile. Just short of Jenning's massive strength and amazing foot speed. Compton puts together bits and parts from the other top tackles to form a happy do-everything medium. On top of that, he is just as good at one block as another, he lasts long in games, and he is considered an extremely safe pick (6% Vol). Top 10 pick.

Most Ready To Step In Jennings
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Cole Kelley, Colorado
Sleeper Pick Daryl Mack, Augustana
Bust Pick Andy Crider, Penn State

Comments: This is a deep position, although it falls off a bit after the top three. Still, there are a ton of quality tackles available here. No team that needs a tackle should go wanting after this draft.

DEFENSIVE END

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 0
# 4.0 Or Above: 9

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.0
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.4

Best Players

Norman Sonntag, Arizona (5.7) (30/66) Sonntag is lightning quick from the snap, and is one of the strongest ends in this draft. He is also agile and smart. He can stand up to the run with the best of them, and displays excellent pass rush technique. He lack play diagnostic skills, though, which will cause him to overrun plays at times, and he doesn't have the natural pass rush strength he needs to beat the big tackles. Considered a fairly safe pick (22% Vol). Mid-first rounder.

Lewis Jones, Pittsburgh (5.5) (25/64) Jones doesn't wow with his physical skills or his mental outlook, but the guy just does it all. He displays good technique, can work up a strong pass rush, can read offenses well, and hits like a truck. He is the classic effort lineman, who seems to get things done with hard work as much as talent. Thought to be almost as safe a pick as Sonntag (26% Vol). Mid-first rounder.

Dean Maxwell, Central Florida (5.2) (34/59) Maxwell comes in rated as the strongest derfensive end, and yet he is expected to be a better pass rusher than run defender. He doesn't look to be a slouch in either, though. His play diagnostic skills could use some work, but otherwise he is fairly polished player. He is considered quite a bit of a risk, though (81% Vol). Mid-to-late first rounder.

Bart Lofton, California (4.9) (28/57) Lofton is a study in opposites. He is more of a glorified pass rushing outside linebacker at 5'11" 241, but he excels in his duties at end not because of speed--at which he is fairly poor--but because he is extremely strong for a man his size. He uses that strength very effectively in the pass rush, and can make all the moves. His problem is picking the plays, as he is terrible at reading offenses. Late first rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Maxwell
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Brent Ogle, Northwestern
Sleeper Pick Jerald Washington, Minnesota
Bust Pick Chuck Halapin, Rutgers

Comments: This position lacks the truly dominant end of some other draft years, but there are still some fairly high grade ends here--just not Top 10 material. Like other positions, the talent level falls with some consistency. Unlike other positions, the bar is set higher, so quality ends could be had later.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 2
# 4.0 Or Above: 6

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.2
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.3

Best Players

Lenny Wilson, Butler (7.0) (51/73) Wilson is fleet of foot, agile as just about any defensive tackle in this draft, and the strongest of them all. He is also no dummy. He has nice size (311 lb), and is one of the most ready players for the NFL in this draft at any position. He does everything in the trenches, stuffing the run and providing a strong pass rush. He also reads plays well and hits hard. The one downer is that he is thought by some scouts to be a risky pick (72% Vol). That could just be matched by his immense potential, though. Top 5 pick.

Barry Maciokas, Washington (6.0) (30/68) He might be an even more impressive physical specimen than Wilson, since he a touch faster and more agile, while not much behind Wilson in pure strength. He is also one of the smarter players at the position. He doesn't come into the league nearly as polished as Wilson, though, and he could be stronger in the pass rush and in reading plays. Top 15 pick.

Grady Lyon, Memphis (5.5) (25/66) Lyon has more massive girth (325 lb) than either Wilson or Maciokas, and yet he moves himself around very nimbly. He is porbably the most agile defensive tackle in this draft. He falters in other areas, though, as he isn't as fast, strong or smart as the top two at his position. He is very stout against the run and calls plays very well from the line. His weakness is in the pass rush, where he needs a lot of work on his technique, and even if he gets that done, he doesn't rally have the strength needed to efectively bull rush. Mid first rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Wilson
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Lyon
Sleeper Pick Carlton Torres, Princeton
Bust Pick Alex West, Virginia Tech

Comments: There are some nice players at the top, and the talent drop is steady. The problem is that steadiness is combined with a sharp decline. There are very few top quality defensive tackles after the best of the bunch.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Back Seven Draft Overview

INSIDE LINEBACKER

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 0
# 4.0 Or Above: 1

Avg Grade Top 4: 4.0
Avg Grade Top 9: 3.6

Best Players

Calvin Gaylor, North Texas (4.5) (25/53) Gaylor is your classic big and mean linebacker. At 274 lb, he packs a punch. He is one of the strongest inside linebackers in the draft, and also can get around with pretty good foot speed. He's very good diagnosing plays, he ranges far, and he hits hard. He gets lost in man defense, and he isn't agile at all. He also is never going to be the premier guy at doing anything, although he does justa bout everything at least competently. He has some significant rsik to him (91% Vol). Late second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Gaylor
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Joe Martin, Grambling
Sleeper Pick Gilbert Parker, Washington
Bust Pick Jimmie Schalk, Oklahoma

Comments: You know it's a weak position when I only put up one "best player". This position just didn't deserve more. I guess the good news is that the talent is fairly consistent and doesn't fall fast. But with such a low beginning point, no one is going to be answering their inside linebacker problems from this draft.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 1
# 4.0 Or Above: 6

Avg Grade Top 6: 4.4
Avg Grade Top 13: 3.9

Best Players

Glenn Levine, Hawaii (6.2) (31/71) Levine has the potential to do pretty much everything well. He can defend the pass, rush the passer, stick up to the run, knock ballcarriers down hard, and read plays. The curiosity is how he does it, since he isn't considered smart or agile at all. He has some speed and he is by far the strongest outside linebacker in the draft, so he has that going for him at least. Mid first-rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Levine
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Harvey Korzuk, Arkansas
Sleeper Pick Bernie Hammond, Mass-Lowell
Bust Pick Marty Ellison, Missouri

Comments: This is a virtual copy of the inside linebacker position, with the exception that Levine is rated as a very solid linebacker. He seems to be the only one int he entire draft. I am glad I don't need linebackers (at least not to start).

CORNERBACK

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 1
# 4.0 Or Above: 9

Avg Grade Top 6: 5.3
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.5

Best Players

Rick Stone, Virginia Tech (7.1) (39/80) Stone might be the best player in this draft, with all due respect given to mammoth talents like Jennings at tackle and Bernhardt at wide receiver. He has all the qualities of a top shutdown corner, and then adds the strength and run defense of a linebacker, and the hitting power of a free-ranging safety. This guy has the ability to step right in, wherever he gets drafted. He is so agile, his performance int hat test blew away anyone else doing it at any position. He isn't without flaws, of course. He has 4.46 speed, which is very good, but it isn't anywhere near best in this draft or in the league. At just 5'11", he could struggle against some of the taller receivers that are in vogue right now. But that's about it. Top 5 pick.

Lorenzo Duff, Oregon State (5.2) (17/65) Duff is a bit of a project, but he could end up nearly as good as Stone in most ways. He doesn't grade out to well in bump and run defense, despite a safety-size (6'0", 206 lb) physique. In fact, he could use a bit more strength, but he is the fastest corner in the draft and also the smartest. He might not be able to step in right away, but after he develops, he could eb a very good one. He is also thought to be a very safe pick (5% Vol). Late first rounder.

Burt Foley, Georgia Tech (5.1) (25/59) Foley is sort of a poor man's Stone. He isn't nearly the physical specimen, but he is fairly strong for a corner, and he shares Stone's general level of average intellignece. Where he falters is he is a step slower and a good deal less agile. He looks to be nearly as good as a pass defender and in run support. But he isn't as good as picking the ball off, reading the ball or laying the lumber on ballcarriers. He ios thought to have great upside, but is also very much a risk (92% Vol). Late first rounder.

Geoff Guthrie, Georgia Tech (5.1) (23/61) Guthrie's best attributes are his nice size (6'1", 213 lb) and his technically efficient approach to the game. There is very little he isn't capable of doing at corner, from playing man and zone to stuffing the run to picking out the plays and the interceptions. He tends to tire quickly, though, and he is also not very smart, nor particularly physically gifted. His steady approach to the game should make him a solid safe pick, though (6% Vol). Late first rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Stone
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Duff
Sleeper Pick Joey Pounds, UC-Davis
Bust Pick Mack Janis, Akron

Comments: This position is one of the deeper ones in the draft, albeit it isn't very top heavy. Despite the seeming likelihood that at least four corners could go in the first round, Stone is the only true gamebreaker in the group. The talent drop after him is precipitous. Once it gets to that next level, though, there are a lot of solid corners to choose from.

SAFETY

By Grade

# 6.0 Or Above: 1
# 4.0 Or Above: 7

Avg Grade Top 6: 4.9
Avg Grade Top 13: 4.2

Best Players

Gabe Buchanan, Texas Tech (7.4) (48/78) Like Stone, Buchanan is a true standout here at safety. He is not only the fastest safety, he is the fastest player in this draft, and will contend for fastest man awards. He is also rated as the most agile at his position, and is stronger than all but one other safety. Skills-wise, he has close to top notch corner skills, particular in zone defense. He is also very good in run defense and can pick out the plays well. He forces turnovers and he hits like a wrecking ball. His run defense and man defense are the worst aspects about him, but that's like saying Randy Moss isn't as good as Marvin harrison--no one will complain about ratings that "low". Top 10 pick.

Christian Zimmerman, Michigan State (4.8) (27/55) Zimmerman is an interesting pick, if for anything than because his last name looks Jewish, but his first name is Christian. Seriosuly, though, he is an even mix of goods and bads. Great speed--not up to Buchanan's level, but as fast as the fastest corner and he is the second fastest safety. But he isn't very smart or strong, and he is particularly stiff for his position. He is a fine defender, both in pass defense and in run support, but he hits like a wet paper towel and he more resembles rubber than glue when it comes to catching interceptions. He is very much a hit-or-miss talent (98% Vol). Mid second rounder.

Most Ready To Step In Buchanan
Biggest Project With Nice Upside Mo Stack, Alabama
Sleeper Pick Ellis Klingler, Towson State
Bust Pick Jorge Cerf, Tulane

Comments: It is eery how this models cornerback. In fact, inside and outside linebacker compared with each other similarly as well. Weird. Anyway, once again, we have a big time star, and a huge fall after that, followed by a very gentle decline. The difference here is that Buchanan is rated a little higher than Stone, at least purely on grade, and the second tier of safeties (which are actually more like third or fourth tier guys) are a step below the second tier of corners. There are guys to be had, but I would hate to need a safety and not be in range to get Buchanan.

CR

[Chief Rum]

2004 Mock Draft

What the hell! Here's my crack at a mock draft of the first round, with brief capsules to explain the pick.

1. NY JETS: RB Shane Muncy, North Carolina Muncy may not end up the best player in this draft, but he's the only back that really suits the Jets' top need.

2. CLEVELAND: CB Rick Stone, Virginia Tech This draft is pathetic for passers, the Browns' top need. So Stone makes for a nice consolation prize to fill their second need.

3. ARIZONA: WR Herman Bernhardt, Penn State Muncy is gone and the defensive ends aren't good enough to get picked here, so the Cards go with someone to help their third need.

4. WASHINGTON: DT Lenny Wilson, Butler This one is easy. Wilson is maybe the top player left ont he board, and the Skins are needy for interior linemen.

5. NEW ENGLAND: T Mitchell Jennings, Indiana This one, too, made sense. Top need and tyop remaining player matchup.

6. CHICAGO: T Gus Horner, Vanderbilt This is just a tough match for the Bears, who need a QB, CB or WR. No QBs fit, and the top CB and WR are gone. So the Bears go witht he best available player.

7. GREEN BAY: S Gabe Buchanan, Texas Tech Once again, the Packers have a bad fit here. They also need CB and WR ina weak draft for them. Their third need, OLB, doesn't really have any impact players at all. So they grab Buchanan, which should make them happy.

8. NEW ORLEANS: T Tommy Compton, Kentucky The Saints might be tempted to take DT Maciokas here, but it would eb a reach. Figure them to fill their #2 need here instead with a more appropriate player.

9. PHILADELPHIA: RB Bart Wells, Georgia Tech This pick makes sense. The Eagles also need WR and CB, but their #3 need RB is too ideally suited to the next back to ignore.

10. CAROLINA: G Will Nickell, Washington This is a best available player situation. Nickell is way too good to still be on the board past this point.

11. DETROIT: DT Barry Macioka, Washington Here's the second straight Husky. The Lions will be happy Maciokas fell to them.

12. DENVER: OLB Glenn Levine, Hawaii This is the first time I feel a team may have to reach. The Broncos need linebackers way too much to ignore Levine, who will be gone by the time they get back up again. They actually need an inside linebacker more, but this draft is too weak at the position.

13. HOUSTON: WR Eddie Westbrook, Duke The Texans will be disappointed Maciokas is gone. They will decide to take Westbrook over the next DT Lyon, who would be another slight reach here.

14. KANSAS CITY: G Kim Deskiewicz, Arkansas-Pine Bluff The biggest needs for the Chiefs are way gone or nowhere near good enough for this pick, so they will go with the best available, which is "The Desk."

15. JACKSONVILLE: TE Winfred Bradford, Kansas Bradford is a bit of a reac here, but this fills a need for the Jags. Even the best available players at this point were running into logjams and/or established vets on the Jags' roster.

16. CINCINNATI: RB Clay Shepard, Boise State This is another spot that makes a lot of sense. Not only does Cincy need a workhorse back, Shepard is even a bit long for this spot. He should have gone a few picks higher.

17. SAN DIEGO: WR Emmitt Downs, Central Florida Downs is a reach here, but the Chargers need help at WR.

18. INDIANAPOLIS: DT Grady Lyon, Memphis This is more or less who the Colts would expect to get at this point. If not Lyon, they would probably pick Levine, if he were available.

19. SAN FRANCISCO: DE Norman Sonntag, Arizona It's either reach for a corner or take the best available player. Sonntag really should have been picked by now, so this should be a good pick for the Niners.

20. ATLANTA: DE Lewis Jones, Pittsburgh Jones is another long overdue pick who is just a shade worse than Sonntag. The difference here is the Falcons actually need a defensive end.

21. NY GIANTS: DE Dean Maxwell, Central Florida Back to the best available player. It just happenes to be another defensive end.

22. MIAMI: T Melvin Winter, Arizona This is a slight reach, but the Fins won't care. They have huge line problems and Winter is just what they need.

23. BALTIMORE: DE Bart Lofton, California The Ravens will be pissed that two of the top three defensive ends went to teams that really didnb't need them, forcing them to reach a liitle to take Lofton.

24. SEATTLE: T Cole Kelley, Colorado The Seahwks will want to get a better tackle here than this slight reach, but they have too many huge line issues to ignore the best remaining tackle.

25. MINNESOTA: CB Burt Foley, Georgia Tech The Vikings need a corner back, among other psoitions. Foley isn't the best corner left (Duff is), but they need corner help now, so they need to grab the guy who is closer to being ready to play right away.

26. DALLAS: CB Geoff Guthrie, Washington State Another pick, another corner that needs to play soon. The Cowboys have a huge need here, so they, too, will have to ignore the best talent in Duff and go witht he next best "ready" corner.

27. OAKLAND: QB Bernie Palmer, Northwestern It's a testament to the weakness of this draft that this over-emphasized position should get its first pick way down here. Palmer will likely step in right away for the retired Rich Gannon.

28. BUFFALO: T Cornell Fulcher, Akron Fulcher is a slight reach, but the Bills can't resist the chance to fill a hole.

29. TAMPA BAY: CB Lorenzo Duff, Oregon State The Buccs don't really need a corner, but their other needs don't fit, and Duff has too much talent to last much longer than here.

30. TENNESSEE: QB Kenneth Poole, Stanford Time to get a guy groomed to eventually replace McNair.

31. ST. LOUIS: WR Hugh Wagner, Boston College Let's face it. Can the Rams ever have enough receivers? Wagner doesn't really suit a need, but he's the best available player.

32. PITTSBURGH: QB Mel Penick, Winona State The Steelers don't want to be put into the situation of choosing between Mark Brunell and Tommy Maddox again, so they pick this guy to eventually take over the reigns of the offense.

CR

[Chief Rum]

I'll go into the actual draft in a bit. First I wanted to talk a little about my strategy going into this one. It should be noted that I got a late third rounder from the Cowboys for DE Dennis Johnson last year, so I actually have eight picks in this draft.

Here's my position-by-position look.

QB If I can get a guy with a lot more upside than my current third and fourth quarterbacks, then this might be an area I address. It's not a high priority, though--I know the kind of long term QB I need isn't in this draft.

RB This is my #1 need, and in fact didn't go after any backs because I was hoping Muncy would fall to me. We'll see. It's a virtual certainty I will pick a back in this draft, although I don't know if I would do it right away if Muncy is gone when I pick.

FB This might be an area I will address, but I am not overly concerned about it. I am happy with Hodgins, and my only purpose in picking up a back here would be to avoid the problems I had last year when Hodgins went down. So a quality backup would be the only possibility here.

TE After Bush and Jones, I don't like my tight ends. And I am eventually going to have to allow one of the vets to go because it's too expensive to keep them both. That makes getting someone in place to eventually be a #2 TE at least is a somewhat of a need area.

WR I am generally satisfied with my receivers, but I could use a solid fourth guy. If one becomes available, I might take a chance on him.

C I let my backup center go. I am going to have to pick up another one to backup Kendall.

G I might pick up a guard. I have ones in place, but I am not sure Fiore is a long term answer or that Hodges will eventually reach good enough potential to start.

T The game would have you believe this is a need area, and it probably is. But time should help with that. Right now, I have five tackles, two of them recent signees. So this doesn't look like a position I will be looking to add anyone.

P/K It would have to be a no one else of value situation. I have a kicker and a punter, and I just don't see the positions as ones I need to draft players for.

DE I doubt this is an area I will address, even if the game thinks it's a need area. As I have siad before, I have young players here that just need time to develop. I also have ready backups in place.

DT I might get a DT to move into the backup rotation at the psoition, but I don't think I will look for it unless I am satisfied with other areas.

ILB Darling did fairly well as a backup ILB, but he is one of my weakest backups. If the right guy comes along, I might pick him to replace Darling. But since I have Darling in place already, other areas will need to be taken care of before I would consider someone here.

OLB I remain dissatisfied with my weakside linebacker, as neither Woods nor Fisher are certain to be the answer there, and current starter Hayes is actually a strongside backer (and better suited there). I may look to draft a guy to work into the backup spot with Woods and be an heir apparent at the spot.

CB I am pretty happy with the free agent corners I picked up, but given Buchanan's age, I may look to add a fifth corner for depth and to eventually move into the regular rotation.

S I can't do much better than my top three, but I need four safeties, so this figures to be an area I will use a pick.

CR

[MizzouRah]

This draft is pathetic for passers, the Browns' top need. So Stone makes for a nice consolation prize to fill their second need.


Are you feeling Christmasy? What's with the neato rhymes?




Todd

[Chief Rum]

Heh..actually it ain't a rhyme if you use the same word to end both sentences. It's just an overall lack of a good vocabulary.

CR

[Chief Rum]

I am going to post up a blow-by-blow first round, and then just show my picks by themselves.

CR

[Chief Rum]

First Round 2004 Draft

Pk  Team            Pos   Player              College

 1  N.Y. Jets        WR   Herman Bernhardt    Penn State
 2  Cleveland         T   Mitchell Jennings   Indiana
 3  Arizona          RB   Shane Muncy         North Carolina
 4  Washington       DT   Lenny Wilson        Butler
 5  New England       T   Gus Horner          Vanderbilt
 6  Chicago          CB   Rick Stone          Virginia Tech
 7  Green Bay         T   Tommy Compton       Kentucky
 8  New Orleans       G   Will Nickell        Washington
 9  Philadelphia     RB   Bart Wells          Georgia Tech
10  Carolina          G   Kim Deskiewicz      Arkansas-Pine Bluff
11  Detroit          DT   Barry Maciokas      Washington
12  Denver           WR   Eddie Westbrook     Duke
13  Houston          DT   Grady Lyon          Memphis
14  Kansas City       S   Gabe Buchanan       Texas Tech
15  Jacksonville     RB   Clay Shepard        Boise State
16  Cincinnati       RB   Jorge Curtis        Louisiana State
17  San Diego        DE   Norman Sonntag      Arizona
18  Indianapolis    OLB   Glenn Levine        Hawaii
19  San Francisco    DT   Bernard Soward      Louisiana State
20  Atlanta          DE   Lewis Jones         Pittsburgh
21  N.Y. Giants      DE   Dean Maxwell        Central Florida
22  Miami             T   Melvin Winter       Arizona
23  Baltimore        DE   Bart Lofton         California
24  Seattle          TE   Winfred Bradford    Kansas
25  Minnesota        CB   Burt Foley          Georgia Tech
26  Dallas           CB   Lorenzo Duff        Oregon State
27  Oakland          CB   Geoff Guthrie       Washington State
28  Buffalo           T   Cornall Fulcher     Akron
29  Tampa Bay         G   Adrian Walters      California
30  Tennessee         T   Cole Kelley         Colorado
31  St. Louis         T   Luther Cheek        Indiana
32  Pittsburgh       DT   Bill Michi          Georgia

Well, I can't say this one went as expected. The Jets aren't even listed as needing a receiver, nor the Browns a tackle. But what do I care? I got my running back.

CR

[Northwood_DK]

No QB in the first round. Has that ever happend before?

[Chief Rum]

Arizona's Draft

Here's my draft, pick by pick. The first two numbers are the round and the pick within the round. The bolded number in parentheses is the overall place of the pick in the draft. The unbloded parentheses following the name is my scout's current/future potential ratings for the player.

1/3 (3) RB Shane Muncy, North Carolina (64/66) As I have said before, I had my eye on Muncy from the very beginning. He looks to be exactly the sort of running back I am looking for. He's a big workhorse back who puts a bruising ont he defense trying to stop him. Furthermore, he will be one of the league's best the second he steps on the field, because he is just about fully developed. It's not too often that you can pick a guy and watch him automatically become one of the top ten best at his position right after he is drafted. Of course, this is just based on what my scout tells me. I won't know what I actually get until I signt he guy.

2/3 (35) WR Hugh Wagner, Boston College (32/58) I don't feel wide receiver is really a position of need at the moment, but I really felt that Wagner was the best player available to me at this point. In the mock draft, I had him as a late first rounder. He's tall (6'4"), fast (4.43 40) and his best quality is avoiding drops, another way of saying the guy has good hands. He's also low risk, with just 22% volatility. While he won't ever rate among the best at most receiver skills, he looks to be solid at just about everything and, I believe, has starting talent in the not too distant future. He should be an excellent #3 WR and likely eventually supplant Jason McAddley in that role, behind starters Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson.

3/3 (67) FB Byron Alston, Oregon (42/65) I had no idea the best fullback in this draft would still be available to me in the third round. I decided to jump on a guy that, if my scout is right, looks like he could be a Pro Bowl candidate in the future. For now, he will make an excellent backup to James Hodgins. I shouldn't have to worry too much if Hodgins goes down now. Alston has some problems holding onto passes thrown his way, but he looks like an excellent blocker, a fine inside runner and also a very good receiver outside of his drops problem.

3/26 (90) C Edwin Bensen, Oregon State (24/58) This was the pick I received from the Cowboys last year for DE Dennis Johnson. I think I was able to put it to good use, as Bensen looks like he has starter talent. He will never be as good as the guy he is playign behind in Pete Kendall, but maybe one day if Kendall's salary demands become ridiculous (and you know they will someday), Bensen will be a nice insurance policy. Until then, he should be a solid backup. He is effective in both phases of the game, has good blocking strength and holds up well. He is even a good long snapper. He will probably be a better run blocker than pass blocker.

4/3 (99) OLB Mo Hutchins, Indiana (20/47) I picked up Hutchins as one of the best of the remaining outside linebackers to serve as a possible heir apparent on the weak side. The problem is that he is probably more of a strong side type of linebacker who happens to play the weak side. I did the best I could--there weren't any realy good natural weak siders left. Hutchins is very strong in run defense and looks like to be a solid pass rusher. He seems to lose a lot in pass defense, though, and I shouldn't ask him to play any man defense. His lack of solid pass coverage skills is the primary reason I am not sure if he will be well suited to the job I have him slated for. I guess we'll just have to see.

5/3 (131) CB Winston Burton, Miami (Fl) (16/40) Burton is a little guy (5'8") and he has his flaws, as you might expect from a fifth rounder. He isn't particularly agile, and he is never going to be a world-beater in any of his defensive skills. He seems to have no nose for picking off the ball whatsoever. But the guy is a smart player who diagnoses plays very well and he hits hard when he reaches the ballcarrier. He has very even pass defense skills, and while none of them are all-pro levels, they are all at competent levels. He may or may not one day be capable of starting, but he definitely looks capable of being a solid nickel or dime corner some time in the next few years.

6/3 (163) FS Ellis Klingler, Towson State (13/37) I liked Klingler's look and the consistency of his ratings. He is a guy rated as a potential sleeper pick. He's a bit on the small side (5'10", 187 lb), is pretty lost in run support, and isn't good at intercepting the ball. But he is as good as most corners at defending the pass, he's a heady player who diagnoses plays well, and despite his small stature, he hits very hard. I'm not sure Klingler is ready to be part of the four-man rotation, so I will probably look for a free agent to handle those duties this year. Klingler looks like he can contribute in the future, though.

7/3 (195) TE Warren Burroughs, Penn State (25/48) This may go down as a rather bitter pick, although for all I know, Burroughs could end up very good. I didn't expect to find much quality down this way, so I was just looking for anything quality at a position I could use. I still needed a third tight end, and Burroughs had some nice skills for a seventh rounder. He is a terrific blocker (if not particularly strong), and he also had good receiving skills, including good ability avoiding drops and getting downfield. He isn't all that courageous and doesn't adjust to the bal well at all, and he might have fumbling problems. Like most seventh rounders, he is clearly a potential hit or miss. What makes it bitter is that it came down to him and this tackle out of Texas A&M named Rod Kiddoo. Kiddoo looked very good for a seventh rounder, with potential high marks in both blocking phases and in blocking strength. His big issue was a potentially nonexistent endurance rating. Lookign back now, I don't know why I picked Burroughs over Kiddoo. Maybe it was because Burroughs played a position at which I still had a potential hole open. As I noted, tackle was a logjam. All I know is when I came out of the draft, Kiddoo--a seventh round pick by the Falcons some 17 selections after me--actually made the Green Page, and looked really good. Damn.

Overall, I would grade this draft as very solid, even being modest. And that is including choosing Burroughs over Kiddoo. Imagine what it could have been. Burroughs may not have been the best pick, and Muncy, as a need pick, may or may not have been the guy I should have picked (although I certainly don't regret the move). But every other move int he first 4-5 rounds was unquestioanbly a solid move in my mind. Including Muncy, there are, IMO, five solid potential starters in my class, with Muncy, Wagner and Bensen having All-Pro potential some day.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Originally posted by Northwood_DK
No QB in the first round. Has that ever happend before?

Probably not. But then, I am not sure there has ever been this weak a quarterback draft either. It truly was pathetic.

Still, I have found evidence that when it comes to the most important position ont he field, the computer AI sometimes acts like a complete nitwit.

CR

[Chief Rum]

Draft Day Deals & Other Draft Tid Bits

The computer showed some trade life during the draft. Here's a rundown fo the trades made.

Trade One

IND dealt S Idrees Bashir to DAL for the Cowboys' 2004 2nd round pick (58th overall).

Having already dealt their third rounder to us last year, the Cowboys felt no compunction in also trading away their second rounder. I think they got a pretty good deal. Bashir, a 2001 2nd rounder, started last year for the Colts and grades out as a very solid safety. He should pair with Roy Williams in a fine safety tandem (although it makes me wonder what happened to Darren Woodsen, who did not retire). Bashir had 85 tkl, 4 int in 15 starts last year. The Colts drafted DE Brian Guyon (26/44) out of Colorado with the pick.

Trade Two

GBY dealt OLB Barrett Green to BUF for the Bills' 2004 2nd round pick (60th overall)

This deal is a little weird, in that the Packers just signed Green in the last free agency away from Detroit. I would imagine in real life, it woul dbe a violation of pro football's CBA to have a recently signed player dealt like that. I think the packers got a good deal, too. Green is a decent enough linebacker, but I'm not sure he is worth a second rounder, even at the back end of the round. Green had 60 tkl, 4.5 sk and 1 int in 12 starts and 16 games for the Lions. The Packers drafted OLB Zach Nielson (24/47) out of Army with the pick.

Trade Three

HOU dealt S Eric Brown to NED for the Pats' 2004 3rd round pick (69th overall)

New England largely struck out in free agency, so they decided to go the trade route. They dealt a high third rounder to the Texans for Brown, a decent if not spectatcular safety. I would consider Brown to be a run-of-the-mill safety with the skills to start, but not as one of the better safeties in the league. It seems like a fairly even deal, although I think he could be had for less. He is terrific in run defense and at intercepting the ball, and that should go a long way. Brown had 79 tkl, 3 int, 6 defn in 16 starts for the Texans. The Texans drafted T Moe Bernard (11/51) out of SE Oklahoma State with the pick.

Trade Four

NYG dealt DE Osi Umenyiora to DET for the Lions' 2004 4th round pick (107th overall)

It appears that Umenyiora, a 2003 2nd round pick, hasn't really shown good enough stuff to justify where he was picked, as he is dealt for a fourth rounder a year later. He has good pass rush strength, but his technical ability in both phases of the game and in play recognition is still under development. He's a low-grade backup right now, but appears to have the ability to develop into a decent, if not spectacular starter down the road. He didn't play much last season for the Giants. The Giants drafted DT Herb Wright (29/36) out of Idaho with the pick.

Trade Five

ATL dealt WR Robert Ferguson to TEN for the Titans' 4th round pick (126th overall)

In another deal involving a recently signed free agent, the Falcons sent former starting Packers receiver Ferguson to the Titans for a fourth rounder. This seems to be a good pick for the Titans, as that is pretty cheap to get a starting wideout, even if Ferguson is an average one. He is likely better than any of Tennessee's other second options at receiver besides Derrick Mason. Since Tennessee can't make any improvements via free agency witht heir horrible cap situation, this is one way for them to help themselves. Ferguson had 48 catches, 700 yd, and 2 TD last year for the Packers. The Falcons drafted WR Keith Torgerson (19/41) out of California with the pick.

Trade Six

PIT dealt RB Jerome Bettis to DAL for the Cowboys' 7th round pick (218th overall)

What is more surprising? That the Cowboys would deal away their third pick in this draft or that the Steelers would give up the running back witht he second highest rushing total last year for a seventh round pick that was just a handful of spaces away from free agency? Although Bettis's actual talent may be arguable, I have to think he was worth more than a 7th rounder. Apparently, the Steelers, having already lost Maddox, will now also lose their back, and make Amos Zeroue their new starter. That's a couple big changes for the world champs. Interestingly enough, Bettis goes to Dallas, the team that signed Maddox. So he will be reunited with his backfield mate from Pittsburgh. Of course, Bettis will likely get some competition from free agent signee James Jackson for that starting spot in the Cowboys' lineup. Last year, Bettis ran for 1571 rushing yards and 7 TD, and also caught 54 passes for 454 yd and 5 additional TD. The Steelers drafted CB Luke Dixon (11/34) out of Florida with the pick.

2004 Mr. Irrelevant

This infamous honor goes to K Lincoln Edwards (25/54) out of California. He was made the 224th and final pick in the 2004 draft by the Steelers.

Suspensions

A couple of draftees were introduced to the league in a rather poor manner, inclduing a first round pick.

Niners' first round draftee DT Bernard Soward out of Lousiana State was suspended for off-field conduct. As the 19th overall pick in the draft, Soward would be a huge loss for the Niners. The length of the suspension is not listed, nor the reason for the suspension. I thought he was a tremendous reach anyway.

The Vikings also lost a player to suspension. Sixth round draftee DT Gabe Reed out of Georgia Tech was also suspended for unspecified off-field conduct violations. The length of Reed's suspension was also not announced. He was the 185th overall pick in the draft.

Draft Review

Here's a look at the computer's grades of the talent each team got in the draft and how much it improved on the existing talent on the roster.

Draft Grades

Team            Grd

Kansas City      A+
Cincinnati       A
San Diego        A-
Buffalo          A-
Tampa Bay        A-
Carolina         A-
Minnesota        A-
Arizona          B+
Seattle          B+
St. Louis        B+
San Francisco    B+
Chicago          B+
New Orleans      B
N.Y. Giants      B
New England      B
Miami            B
Philadelphia     B
Green Bay        B
Tennessee        B
Washington       B
N.Y. Jets        B
Dallas           B-
Indianapolis     B-
Pittsburgh       B-
Cleveland        B-
Denver           B-
Atlanta          B-
Detroit          B-
Baltimore        C+
Oakland          C+
Houston          C+
Jacksonville     C-

CR

[Kokoshin]

Congrats !! You got Muncy...

Your draft looks more than solid and Muncy hopefully will be more than a need pick. There's not so much RBs with 64 rating, and could be a automatic contender for ROY honours. Just make sure he doesn't holdout for long. I also like Bensen pick. Seems a smart choice and the guy looks promising. He would be ready to step in as starter in a couple of years. How long is Kendall's contract?

Now just make sure that everybody signs in the dotted line ASAP.

Expecting training camp...................

(edited for typos. My English sucks)

[sachmo71]

Sachmo's award for the coolest 1st rounder name....

Gus Horner

I guess I'm partial to the old school, and this is a name I can picture of a guy playing for the Bears in the early 50's.

[General Mike]

Originally posted by Northwood_DK
No QB in the first round. Has that ever happend before?

1996, Tony Banks was the 1st QB taken, 42nd overall
1985. Randall Cunningham was the 1st QB taken, 37th overall
1984, Boomer Esaison, 38th overall
1974, Danny White, 53rd overall
It may have happened before than, but I got tired of looking.

so it's happened before, but you'd have to have a really weak draft at QB for it to happen now with 32 teams in the league. I looked at the QBs drafted in 96, and they suck.

1996 2 12 42 Tony Banks Rams Michigan State
1996 3 24 85 Bobby Hoying Eagles Ohio State
1996 4 5 100 Jeff Lewis Broncos Northern Arizona
1996 4 35 130 Danny Kanell Giants Florida State
1996 6 36 203 Spence Fischer Steelers Duke
1996 6 38 205 Mike Cawley Colts James Madison
1996 7 29 238 Jon Stark Ravens Trinity
1996 7 31 240 Kyle Wachholtz Packers USC

[Chief Rum]

Kokoshin: Thanks for the props. I am really excited by this draft, too. I think I got some really good players. Still wish I had gotten Kiddoo, though. I remember I couldn't wait to get Muncy on the field after this one.

As for Bensen, I do like him a lot, but it's going to be tough to get rid of Kendall. He is the best center in the league. That's tough to give up. He's signed through 2005 (two more seasons), which is fortunate, becasue Bensen will need at least that long to get to a true starter's level skills.

You're English is fine. Have you seen all the typos I have littered throughout this thread?

sachmo: Agreed. Great football name.

General Mike: Wow, I didn't know bad QB drafts were so prevalent. That makes me feel even better about having one like this. Thanks for the head's up.

CR

[DolphinFan1]

In FOF4 I had a few drafts where no QB's were selected in the 1st round. In FOF2K4 I haven't had that happen yet. But I have an offseason started and a very weak QB class so it may happen.

Chief, congrats on predicting the Dolphins 1st round pick.

Now let's see the Cards and Fins in the Front Office Bowl.

Great work and depth on this dynasty.

[Vikings13]

I concur DolphinFan's statements... Looking forward to the next chapter...

[MizzouRah]

Originally posted by Chief Rum
Heh..actually it ain't a rhyme if you use the same word to end both sentences. It's just an overall lack of a good vocabulary.

CR

I kept seeing the word speed.

Uh...ok.....


Todd

[MizzouRah]

Where art thou Chief?


Todd