Werewolf XCVIII - 24 Day Game Over - Post 2899

[Poli]

Beep, beep, beep...

[hoopsguy]

YouTube - 24 Time Effect

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But of all the KWhit voters why me? Even DT got this one wrong, and you know he's good. I can see the logic in going after KWhit voters, but I would look at the ones with votes after DT. After all, what's safer than to throw a vote out against a villager (as they would have known) after the most trusted guy in the game basically said, "Yeah, he's one!"

When I made my vote, KWhit was in no danger at all.

+1

this is very true and good analysis chief

And Autumn - I will leave the rest of the night and the morning for everyone to discuss their own thoughts on things and stuff before I set out who the two other people are ( "36 hour" and "programmer" for short).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I had my own reasons for the KWhit vote. It wasn't based on yours at all CR.

Well there you go then. Thanks for clarifying, DT. Of course, I didn't even really have reasons for voting KWhit, lol. He fell victim to my search for the "third candidate". I was as much caught out as anyone by the sudden run on him.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I had this plan to read up on all this and have all this stuff to say, but frankly, no dice. Confused is not the word I would choose for my state of mind, but it's not far off. I understand what's going on, as much as anyone, but we're simply in a position where we don't have enough information to properly judge just WTH is going on. We might need to let some of our private role actions run their course to better determine what we will do.

So until then, I think I will not be doing the post circus tonight, but instead hope for some more action to guide us tomorrow. I will try to find time to check in from work. Should be before the full 24 hour deadline (yes, I realize we may not reach it, but I'm not ready to throw out the "just in case" Day One vote in a game like this).

Chief, this was the other post I had mentioned earlier. Considering the complexity of the game and being posted early in day 1 it doesn't bother me as much in retrospect, it's just odd having you do a wait and see thing.

[ntndeacon]

can we vote Poli and stop the clock? lol

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

Chief, this was the other post I had mentioned earlier. Considering the complexity of the game and being posted early in day 1 it doesn't bother me as much in retrospect, it's just odd having you do a wait and see thing.

Ah, I guess I can see that. That was my "tired as hell, no way do I understand WTF is going on in this game, it's late, I gotta go to bed" post last night.

I was serious, though. I didn't get the feeling we knew crap, and I knew we all had abilities (or that's what I believe to be true), so I thought the exercise of some of those abilities might get us some clarity on a vote. At that point in time, I was entirely unsure where to go with a vote.

Of course, as you can see, once I did put a vote in, it didn't really do much good anyway.

[Tyrith]

Personally, I'm not really a fan of the third candidate thing, but it's not so far removed from reason for me to not see it as a legitimate thought, so I'm not going to hold it against you. Unless both ntn and PB turn up bad, that is.

[path12]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

DAY 1 FINAL



Eaglefan 1 – BrianD (292)
Path 1 – nfg22 (305)
Jackal 1 – PB (328)
BrianD 1 – Pass (330)
Ntn 1 – Jag (332)
PB 1 – Eaglefan (334)
Jackal 2 – Saldana (343)
Path 2 – Tyrith (347)
UNVOTE Eaglefan 0 – BrianD (358)
Ntn 2 – Path (360)
PB 2 – Jackal (366)
Jackal 3 – Brian D (370)
Ntn 3 – Daddy Torgo (371)
UNVOTE PB 1 – Jackal (374)
Ntn 4 – Jackal (374)
UNVOTE Path 1 – Tyrith (388)
Jackal 4 – Tyrith (388)
Ntn 5 – Alan (389)
Ntn 6 – Kwhit (390)
Jackal 5 – Telle (391)
UNVOTE Jackal 4 – Telle (411)
PB 2 – Telle (411)
Ntn 7 – Kingfc (425)
Jackal 5 – Ntn (431)
UNVOTE path 0 – nfg22 (439)
Ntn 8 – nfg22 (439)
Ntn 9 – Thomkal (441)
UNVOTE Jackal 4 – BrianD (443)
PB 3 – BrianD (443)
Jackal 5 – claphamsa (453)
PB 4 – Autumn (459)
UNVOTE ntn 8 – Daddy Torgo (463)
PB 5 – Isiddiqui (471)
UNVOTE ntn 7 – Alan (474)
UNVOTE Jackal 4 – ntn (475)
Kwhit 1 – ntn (475)
UNVOTE ntn 6 – nfg22 (482)
Kwhit 2 – nfg22 (482)
UNVOTE ntn 5 – path (496)
UNVOTE Jackal 3 – saldana (501)
PB 6 – saldana (501)
UNVOTE Jackal 2 – PB (511)
UNVOTE Jackal 1 – Tyrith (514)
Ntn 6 – Tyrith (514)
Ntn 7 – PB (517)
Ntn 8 – Schmidty (537)
PB 7 – path (546)
UNVOTE KWhit 1 – ntn (560)
PB 8 – ntn (560)
KWhit 2 – Chief (565)
UNVOTE PB 7 – BrianD (579)
KWhit 3 – BrianD (579)
UNVOTE PB 6 – autumn (581)
KWhit 4 – autumn (581)
KWhit 5 – Daddy Torgo (596)
UNVOTE PB 5 – Telle (598)
KWhit 6 – Telle (598)
UNVOTE PB 4 - ISiddiqui (599)
KWhit 7 – Isiddiqui (599)
KWhit 8 – Alan (600)
UNVOTE ntn 7 – PB (602)
KWhit 9 – PB (602)

I think I need to find a way to reformat this that is easier for me to follow, but this is potentially valuable.

We had three decent runs on people yesterday: ntn, Purdue and KWhit. What interests me are those who jumped on more than one of those. Especially anyone who jumped on all three.

For instance, BrianD was the third vote on The Jackal. He then jumped to be the third vote on Purdue Brad, and finally jumped again to the KWhit train.

It was also interesting to see that double run on ntn, up to 9 votes then down to five and back up to 8. If anything that makes me feel better about him, for it's hard to imagine wolves letting two runs go on a fellow baddie. (with the caveat that day 1 anything is possible).

Thanks for putting that together, king.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Personally, I'm not really a fan of the third candidate thing, but it's not so far removed from reason for me to not see it as a legitimate thought, so I'm not going to hold it against you. Unless both ntn and PB turn up bad, that is.

Heh...if ntn and PB both turn up bad, I would be half inclined to vote for myself.

[DaddyTorgo]

very very interesting

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...if ntn and PB both turn up bad, I would be half inclined to vote for myself.

That seems like a perfectly reasonable sentiment

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

very very interesting

is this something new that's very, very interesting? Because I want to go to bed but not if there's something new and interesting.

[Autumn]

I guess not, I'll be out 'til tomorrow.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm out for the night. I'll likely be on in the AM for a bit and then we finish the last leg of our trip (this used to be much faster w/o a four month old) tomorrow. Should be on around 4 pm CST tomorrow and then back in regular form the rest of the way.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by henry296

Chief - I agree with you that your votes does not appear suspicious. The suspicious votes appear to be those that came later. Perhaps Telle or Isiddiqui who votes immediately after DT.

Well DT is Jack Bauer. And when he has a suspicion, I assumed its because he figured something out based on a PM or special power he has. He's the only confirmed good guy after all.

[Schmidty]

I'm still here and still reading. I don't really know what to add right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

2am - bedtime for me!

[Barkeep49]

The report from the field agents dispatched to the hospital is not a good one. It seems that there is a case of hemorrhagic fever at the hospital. This would not be a big deal, except it was contracted by a man should have had no exposure to such a disease. Naturally officials are concerned.

All available agents go out hard pursuing whatever leads they can find. The first problem comes when Tyrith fails to report in. When another agent goes to check on him, his car is discovered with his throat slit. The Secret Service is sure to be disturbed that its liaison with CTU for this investigation was so brutally murdered. There were few in the Secret Service more committed to rooting out the evil of the Conspiracy, but now that driving force is gone.

You are Aaron Pierce, loyal member of the Secret Service. As a member of the Secret Service you will have the ability to protect some of the players. Every 24 hours you may designate a player to guard. The success of this will be based on the category of that player's role (see post 2). If the player is a President or their Wives and they are attacked you will learn the identity of the attacker and the attack will fail. If the player is a Government Official, you will prevent the attack, but not learn the attacker. If you guard anyone else, you will not be able to provide them with adequate security and the attack will be successful. You may protect each player only once during the game.

You have barely had time to absorb this when word comes of a shoot-out in West Hollywood. CTU agents descend on the area, but it is too late. You find the body of JAG. Your initial thought, based on his identity, leads you to think that you have caught your first break and found a member of the conspiracy. But this turns out to be a false hope. It seems that for his own personal reasons JAG was trying to root out and quash the Conspiracy, just the same as the Government.

You are Habib Marwan. While you have no great love for the Government, you despise the potential actions of the Conspiracy even more. During Night 0 you may submit a list of two players. If you are lynched at any time in the game you may choose one of these players to be lynched with you (i.e. you're a brutal villager). If you wish to use this power you must notify the moderators before the lynch, or with-in 5 minutes of the lynch deadline.

So far the investigation has not been kind. Perhaps the rest of today will be better.

[Danny]

Wow, we lost two and one being a BG. Habib doesn't seem like much of a loss at least.

[Danny]

Sorry for my low activity today. I had guests over from about 6 central until 3 central (4-1am my time).

[Poli]

Beep, beep, beep...

[saldana]

well we arent off to a great start are we?

i think the DT call from yesterday was the best shot we had, but if there is anything to be learned from it, it is that analyzing the roles and trying to pick wolves out based on what mechanics hoops and bk may have come up with may not be a very good plan.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I referenced earlier that based on PM's that people had sent to me I had 3 suspects. KWhit was one of them. There was another choice besides KWhit (as you can see from my talking it thru earlier) and i am happy to go that way tomorrow, but I don't want to dominate discussion completely, I'd like to see what thoughts others have on the subject of who to go after.

what could people possibly PM you that would make them suspects? Im sure even the wolves didnt tell you they were wolves!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

EF is okay.

how do you know?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how do you know?

He probably had something to do with Ef being removed from the game for a short time. Perhaps some sort of interrogation ability or something.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well DT is Jack Bauer. And when he has a suspicion, I assumed its because he figured something out based on a PM or special power he has. He's the only confirmed good guy after all.

the problem is... what could he have learned in a pm? i mean seriously..... unless someone gets busted lying.... and we learn nothing from wrong votes, since the wolves can just jump on with DT when hes wrong.

I think we should ignore the info that DT THINKS he has, that he probably doesnt. and just play but thts my argument every game....

DT you really need to avoid speculating, when you KNOW something then tell us....

[Danny]

Since I had more time to catch up, I don't think we can read too much into the Kwhit voters. Yes, it wouldn't have been a bad idea for wolves to jump in there, but unless one or both of NFG and PB are wolves, they probably would lean towards sticking on their current candidate. Also, it is quite likely villagers followed DT as well. I was actually leaning towards voting there before the lynch happened myself.

My vote is on CR right now, but there's a good chance that will change as the day develops.

[Danny]

I am ok with speculation, I just think it would be helpful if his vote is based on speculation or mostly a guess. I felt he did that fine and there was really nothing wrong with that for day 1. Going forward, there should be more though.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am ok with speculation, I just think it would be helpful if his vote is based on speculation or mostly a guess. I felt he did that fine and there was really nothing wrong with that for day 1. Going forward, there should be more though.

i disagree, we actually would have learned more from a no lynch.....

[DaddyTorgo]

well gee Clap - since you're either #1 or #2 on my list of suspects right now it doesn't surprise me that you're trying to push people away from siding with me.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

well gee Clap - since you're either #1 or #2 on my list of suspects right now it doesn't surprise me that you're trying to push people away from siding with me.

why would u suspect me? I mean go ahead, my role is kinda lame....

[Alan T]

Trying to work out the math from Day 1 to make sure what we assume is indeed correct:

Final vote count:
1 - The Jackal: clap (453, 1:55 pm)
1 - BrianD: Pass (330, 8:23)
7 - NTN: JAG (332, 8:31) Jackal (374, 10:26 AM) KWhit (390, 10:45 AM) king (425, 12:26 PM) thomkal (441, 1:42 pm) Tyrith (514, 3:44 PM) Schmidty (537, 5:48)
4 - PB: Eagle (334, 8:59 AM) saldana (501, 3:22 PM) path (546, 6:03) ntn (560, 6:14)
9 - KWhit: nfg (482, 2:39 PM) CR (565, 6:44) Brian (579, 7:22) Autumn (581, 7:27) DT (595, 7:39) Telle (598, 7:42) ISiddiqui (599 7:44) Alan (600 7:44) PB (602, 7:44)


- 22 of 24 possible people voted.
- Despite Eaglefan disappearing, his vote did count. I assume if he had not voted prior to leaving then he wouldn't have been able to vote however.

Kwhit had 37.5% of possible votes at the lynch, which occured 23 hours after the previous night0 deadline.

NTN had 29% and Eaglefan had 16.7%.

- I already mentioned before the lynch occured that Kwhit had at least 1 extra "vote" on him that did not show up. So his true vote percentage at lynch was likely at least 41.7%.

- The last official vote on Kwhit came from PurdueBrad at 8:44pm ET, but that was not enough to trigger the lynch. It seems likely that time was the lynching force as soon as we hit 23 hours from the previous night 0 deadline, 40%+ was enough to lynch him as I had speculated might be the case prior to the lynch.

- With 3 less players available, that makes a total of 21 possible votes. We do not know if Eaglefan will be back today to vote (I assume he will be?) or if he (or anyone else that something may happen to today) would count as a possible vote if something happened mid-day. ie: someone get killed mid-day to lower the voter pool.

- Assuming 21 total possible votes however, that means the 40% mark needed to lynch someone at 23 hours after Kwhit's lynch (or just shortly before 8pm ET tonight) would be 9 total votes.

- My guess is an hour earlier we would need 11 total votes, two hours earlier 13 total votes

[Thomkal]

Well that was a pretty horrible day 1 for us. I'm fine actually with DT speculating-I mean he has more info on us on Day 1 than anyone else has had on day 1 before. You might let us in more on what you have though today so we can debate and analyze it as well.

Right now I'm leaning towards a KWhit voter, not sure which one yet. I just think it gave the wolves a pre-made excuse to cover their vote. "I was voting with the only known good-Jack Bauer." But I'm sure the wolves spread their votes out too.

As for the night kills-looks like more than wolves can kill-though given this is 24, that's not surprising I guess. Any ideas on why Tyrith and JAG in particular were chosen? And Habib Marwan showing up as Government? I would have thought as a Neutral given that description.

[Danny]

DT, can you confirm that EF should be trusted?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

- Assuming 21 total possible votes however, that means the 40% mark needed to lynch someone at 23 hours after Kwhit's lynch (or just shortly before 8pm ET tonight) would be 9 total votes.

- My guess is an hour earlier we would need 11 total votes, two hours earlier 13 total votes

Which would mean
23:00-23:59 = 40%
22:00-22:59 = 50%
21:00-21:59 = 60%

I figured the time frames for previous to 23:00 would be spaced further apart (I think I had 20:00-22:59 as the 50% window), but this could definitely be closer.

[PurdueBrad]

That was a rough day 1, losing the eavesdropper, the bg, and a brutal villager (cool role btw). I'm off to drive the last leg but will be on this afternoon.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I already mentioned before the lynch occured that Kwhit had at least 1 extra "vote" on him that did not show up. So his true vote percentage at lynch was likely at least 41.7%.

What do you mean by this? I missed it previously.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

My reason for this vote is for the reasons stated by another player on the last page and CR usually avoids suspicion early. It definitely is subject to change.

I think I would have a better feeling about you if you were more clear than this on your vote on me, Danny, getting your own reasons. You never really responded to my direct questioning yesterday of why you were voting for me. I let it go last night, but now you're back here and ignoring the one "lead" we may have (post-DT KWhit voters) and sticking with me. So it smells a bit to me that you're not only going that way (against perhaps going logic), but also not really giving your own reasons or responding to me.

I would have to say you're pinging me a little right now. I don't mind the vote on me. Just stand up for it yourself and give me something I can at least try to respond to, as I did with path and Tyrith last night.

Unfortunately, I am almost certainly out for the next few hours, so I guess I'll see how you respond when I return.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Danny

What do you mean by this? I missed it previously.

I'm not sure what you are asking. It was part of last night's discussion.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I think I would have a better feeling about you if you were more clear than this on your vote on me, Danny, getting your own reasons. You never really responded to my direct questioning yesterday of why you were voting for me. I let it go last night, but now you're back here and ignoring the one "lead" we may have (post-DT KWhit voters) and sticking with me. So it smells a bit to me that you're not only going that way (against perhaps going logic), but also not really giving your own reasons or responding to me.

I would have to say you're pinging me a little right now. I don't mind the vote on me. Just stand up for it yourself and give me something I can at least try to respond to, as I did with path and Tyrith last night.

Unfortunately, I am almost certainly out for the next few hours, so I guess I'll see how you respond when I return.

I mentioned this already, but my vote is certainly not stuck on you. My reasoning for voting you was the initial post you made two nights ago that was a bit off to me, the Kwhit vote when you made it and the fact that you rarely every get any votes or attention early in the game and I wanted to change that. The reason I am not jumping on all Kwhit voters (or stuck on you) is because we do not know the allegiance of the two lead vote getters before the run on Kwhit.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

the problem is... what could he have learned in a pm? i mean seriously..... unless someone gets busted lying.... and we learn nothing from wrong votes, since the wolves can just jump on with DT when hes wrong.

I think we should ignore the info that DT THINKS he has, that he probably doesnt. and just play but thts my argument every game....

DT you really need to avoid speculating, when you KNOW something then tell us....

Well isn't the game about figuring out who has messed up in a post (which I guess would be the easiest way) which indicates that they are a wolf? I assume that someone who got a number of PMs would be able to parse them like we would a bunch of posts.

Sure we'd have to assume based on DT's thoughts on the matter of his PMs and discrepancies he thinks are there, but he just may have more information than the rest of us.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not sure what you are asking. It was part of last night's discussion.

I guess I missed it, I did skip over a couple pages, but even rereading now I didn't see anything about an unlisted vote being on Kwhit?

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Well isn't the game about figuring out who has messed up in a post (which I guess would be the easiest way) which indicates that they are a wolf? I assume that someone who got a number of PMs would be able to parse them like we would a bunch of posts.

Sure we'd have to assume based on DT's thoughts on the matter of his PMs and discrepancies he thinks are there, but he just may have more information than the rest of us.

thats exactly what im saying! normally lots of people can see and look over what it is. here its "oh DT said vote for KWit" but we dont know why. we learn nothing. there is no possible discustion. and we end up with a day one lynch in which we learn nothing. the wolves must be thrilled by this.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am ok with speculation, I just think it would be helpful if his vote is based on speculation or mostly a guess. I felt he did that fine and there was really nothing wrong with that for day 1. Going forward, there should be more though.

I'm still not totally caught up from yesterday evening yet, but I think I agree with what Danny's saying here. I think DT pretty much played it perfectly, and ended up getting the result that he felt was best, while still giving us a lot of voting record to work with.

Generally when more than one person reveals, before we rely on the old "who revealed first" tiebreaker, most of us give each reveal "the sniff test" to see if one reveal is more believable than the other. I think this comes into play in a huge way here (since the reveals were only made to one person, and since no one knows when anyone else revealed, there really is no "first reveal" in that sense), and DT has that info while the rest of us don't, so I think it's on him to give us his opinion, while making sure not to out anyone who he thinks is giving an honest reveal. If I recall, it's not like DT suggested any candidates out of nowhere -- he just gave his more-informed opinion of the candidates that others had voted for.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not going to go into specifics, but we're at 40% on Kwhit at this point and it was not enough yet. I know there are only 9 votes, but you'll just have to trust me on this one.

I'm only saying this so we don't have issues trying to do the math later on this. My guess is at 9pm ET we hit the 40% mark. I'll be interested to see if he gets lynched at 9 without any votes moving to him.

Danny, here's the post Alan was talking about.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Danny

I guess I missed it, I did skip over a couple pages, but even rereading now I didn't see anything about an unlisted vote being on Kwhit?

Well as I said, I'm not going into any more specifics. I simply was letting everyone know for math purposes so we could figure out the lynch requirements.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

thats exactly what im saying! normally lots of people can see and look over what it is. here its "oh DT said vote for KWit" but we dont know why. we learn nothing. there is no possible discustion. and we end up with a day one lynch in which we learn nothing. the wolves must be thrilled by this.

I disagree -- it looks there's a lot of movement in the voting record, even if you take out any effect that DT had on it.

[Danny]

Thanks Pass

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm still not totally caught up from yesterday evening yet, but I think I agree with what Danny's saying here. I think DT pretty much played it perfectly, and ended up getting the result that he felt was best, while still giving us a lot of voting record to work with.

Generally when more than one person reveals, before we rely on the old "who revealed first" tiebreaker, most of us give each reveal "the sniff test" to see if one reveal is more believable than the other. I think this comes into play in a huge way here (since the reveals were only made to one person, and since no one knows when anyone else revealed, there really is no "first reveal" in that sense), and DT has that info while the rest of us don't, so I think it's on him to give us his opinion, while making sure not to out anyone who he thinks is giving an honest reveal. If I recall, it's not like DT suggested any candidates out of nowhere -- he just gave his more-informed opinion of the candidates that others had voted for.

wait... what? we have no meaningful voting record.. since it was an unopposed stampeded. and DT got Kwit lynched for nothing. he should have said, Kwhitt has told me he is a vanilla villager....so it wont kill us when he dies. instead of endorsing his lynching with no info!

vote passacaglia