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Old 11-21-2005, 01:13 PM   #1051
Mr. Wednesday
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Under the circumstances, I think there is considerably less downside to being wrong in believing that ardent is right and hoops is a wolf than to believing that ardent is a wolf.

VOTE HOOPSGUY
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Old 11-21-2005, 01:18 PM   #1052
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i guess today is going to be a hoopsguy/ardent lynching, so i guess we'll leave the pennywise silent game debate for another day

UNVOTE PENNYWISEB

i'm going to go back and read through all of ardent and hoopguy's arguments against each other and see what conclusions i come to
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Old 11-21-2005, 01:25 PM   #1053
saldana
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i am a little bit apprehensive about buying into the dreamweaver reveal. we all know NC loves his secret roles, i even argured about it the first game i played (and was promptly whacked by the mafia for it), but in that game, he stated clearly at the beginning that there were the primary roles, the hidden roles, and additional secret roles that would be revealed later....he does not say that in the rules for this game

i am not ready to vote yet, but at this point i am leaning towards AE.

his repetitive hoopsguy beating reminds me an awful lot of me in my fake witness reveal that got dubb lynched in the outlaw game(which he is apparently still bent about since he wants to kill me here )...i dont really see a lot of evidence, just a lot of taunting and repeating the same thing over again. that plus the lack of advertised secret roles make me rather suspicious
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Old 11-21-2005, 01:48 PM   #1054
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saldana
his repetitive hoopsguy beating reminds me an awful lot of me in my fake witness reveal that got dubb lynched in the outlaw game(which he is apparently still bent about since he wants to kill me here )...i dont really see a lot of evidence, just a lot of taunting and repeating the same thing over again. that plus the lack of advertised secret roles make me rather suspicious

I agree. It also reminds me of RPIs arguments in the Spawn game where RPI turned out to be the spawn as well. Plus, I know neon's games have quite a few twists and turns, but like everyone has said, never in the rules did he declare secret roles.
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Old 11-21-2005, 01:55 PM   #1055
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Under the circumstances, I think there is considerably less downside to being wrong in believing that ardent is right and hoops is a wolf than to believing that ardent is a wolf.

I understand the argument and I can't really combat this. I don't have a secret (made up or otherwise). I'm not a seer, I'm not a lover. If I die then I will die a villager. Furthermore, I've used this same logic in many games to help govern my decision-making process.

I would ask you to review the posts and determine where he makes any kind of case that I really am a werewolf without a fake reveal. But I trust that you have looked at the data and factored that into your decision. I hope that others feel differently and would be delighted if you reconsider.

Just make sure that you do not let AE off the hook tomorrow when he is (shockingly!) alive. I don't think lynching me is going to lose the game today but I'm just about positive it is the last mistake we can afford. And, on a personal level, I've never been involved with a game yet where I died and the villagers went on to win without me. Even in games where I thought it was game-set-match for the villagers the wolves have moved on to victory. So I would really prefer that I'm not lynched today and we have the luxury of a mistake on another day.
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Old 11-21-2005, 02:23 PM   #1056
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What if...

AE is a wolf and he's yanking our chain? What if he's the brutal wolf? I did not consider that possibility. I could see the wolves sacrificing one of their own to get three (lynch today, kill tonight, and revenge kill tomorrow). Just a possibility there.
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Old 11-21-2005, 02:46 PM   #1057
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I am not wedded to an ardent vs. hoopsguy choice here -- I'm willing to vote for someone outside this pair. If it comes down to ardent vs. hoopsguy, we cannot afford to be wrong if we vote for ardent.
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Old 11-21-2005, 02:50 PM   #1058
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raiders Army
What if...

AE is a wolf and he's yanking our chain? What if he's the brutal wolf? I did not consider that possibility. I could see the wolves sacrificing one of their own to get three (lynch today, kill tonight, and revenge kill tomorrow). Just a possibility there.


This really scares me here. We could be seriously screwed if this were the case.
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Old 11-21-2005, 02:56 PM   #1059
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday
I am not wedded to an ardent vs. hoopsguy choice here -- I'm willing to vote for someone outside this pair. If it comes down to ardent vs. hoopsguy, we cannot afford to be wrong if we vote for ardent.
I'm not wedded to it either. I am sticking with my vote for McSweeny. I will not know the results of the lynch vote tonight unless something goes horribly awry with my Xbox 360 plans at Walmart (i.e. I'm leaving at 6:30 EST or earlier to wait for an Xbox 360).
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Old 11-21-2005, 03:12 PM   #1060
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I'm going to VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST

If he really did have that secret role, and knew that once he used it, it was done for, he would have posted that first before all the shenanigans with Hoops (and not conveniently come out with it today). I'm not 100% and new evidence can sway me, but for now, thats where I stand.
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Old 11-21-2005, 03:20 PM   #1061
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I am definitely willing to take a shot at McSweeny.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE MCSWEENY
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Old 11-21-2005, 03:23 PM   #1062
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Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday
I am definitely willing to take a shot at McSweeny.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE MCSWEENY

What evidence do we have on McSweeny other than he voted for Pass? Just wondering, maybe I missed something.
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Old 11-21-2005, 03:57 PM   #1063
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I'm going out to Walmart. Good luck guys.
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Old 11-21-2005, 04:07 PM   #1064
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Originally Posted by pennywisesb
What evidence do we have on McSweeny other than he voted for Pass? Just wondering, maybe I missed something.
my actions on day one are what most people are holding against me. there was some flip-flopping on my part in order to stay alive. i also voted for RPI on day 3. So two villager votes from my looks pretty bad. i'll admit that.

i guess i could do a little explaining here. Day 1 is always a crapshoot. As a villager my goal is to stay alive. It'd be nice catch a wolf in the process, but the odds are pretty terrible. Pass coming out as the herbalist raised my eyebrows. That fact coupled with the fact that MY neck was in the noose gave me enough of a reason to vote for him

as for RPI on day 3, the way he came out swinging gave me and a couple others the impression that he was a wolf. no other solid candidates emerged on day 3 so he got my vote. the fact that people seem to think he may have been the cunning wolf gives a slight bit of validity to my vote i guess

i think that discusses the extent of my "wolfish" behavior

i'll be happy to answer any more questions
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:02 PM   #1065
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VOTE HOOPSGUY

I still think Ardent isn't telling us the whole truth. But I still believe he is a villager with a very special role. Sorry if I'm wrong Hoopsguy.
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Because you know it takes sound strategy to get killed repeatedly on day one right?
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:32 PM   #1066
Mr. Wednesday
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Estimated vote tally:

hoopsguy: ardent enthusiast, dubb93
ardent enthusiast: hoopsguy, pennywisesb
McSweeny: Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday

We've got a lot of people who haven't voted yet, and a three-way tie that I think kills McSweeny, then ardent, then hoopsguy.
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:34 PM   #1067
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I am still not liking the whole secret role reveal...it is just too convenient, especially considering that no one else has mentioned any kind of secret role up to this point.

and for a second i thought i was actually going to be in agreement with dubb...

VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:34 PM   #1068
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Correction - the tie kills ardent, then McSweeny, with hoopsguy winning any tie because his first vote was cast first.

I'm willing to go with either hoopsguy or McSweeny, at this point.
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:35 PM   #1069
Mr. Wednesday
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UNVOTE MCSWEENY
VOTE HOOPSGUY

We cannot risk being wrong on a vote for ardent.
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:35 PM   #1070
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dola, i am at work now,so i will be in and out periodically, but i am leaving this page open in my browser, so it may appear that i am lurking in the thread, when in fact, i just dont want to save it to my favorites on my work computer.
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:35 PM   #1071
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Dola, it would be very helpful to me if anybody casting a vote who will not be around closer to the deadline would say so.
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Old 11-21-2005, 05:43 PM   #1072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday
We cannot risk being wrong on a vote for ardent.

Can you explain this again to me? Why is voting AE so much worse than voting Hoops?
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:08 PM   #1073
Mr. Wednesday
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I'd prefer not to.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:12 PM   #1074
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Dola, we have eleven people alive and only seven votes in -- where are the other four of you??? This is a critical vote, the outcome of the game may literally hang in the balance!
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:13 PM   #1075
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I have been without internet for over a day, and just got caught up. I posted a vote for McSweeny way back when ... don't see any reason to change it. AE's reveal ... I don't know if I believe it, and I don't know if it means what he thinks it means. I still like McSweeny.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:14 PM   #1076
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Originally Posted by st.cronin
VOTE MCSWEENY

Almost three whole days to discuss.

Post #859. I stand by my vote.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:15 PM   #1077
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Oops, sorry, I missed that. We're still missing three critical votes, though.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:15 PM   #1078
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday
Dola, we have eleven people alive and only seven votes in -- where are the other four of you??? This is a critical vote, the outcome of the game may literally hang in the balance!

Which is probably part of the reason why you think voting for AE is such a bad move. I'm curious why this is because I couldn't find a post in which you stated why (there are over 1,000 posts so i might have missed it). You've been in my circle of trust from the beginning, but withholding evidence could really hurt us at this point.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:16 PM   #1079
Mr. Wednesday
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Estimated vote tally:

hoopsguy: ardent enthusiast, dubb93, Mr. Wednesday
ardent enthusiast: hoopsguy, pennywisesb, saldana
McSweeny: Raiders Army, st. cronin

McSweeny wins, ardent loses, any tiebreaker.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:17 PM   #1080
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dola, insert "should explain" between "you" and "think". I would just edit the post, but don't want to draw unnecessary criticism.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:20 PM   #1081
Mr. Wednesday
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I understand what you're asking for. I'll deliver it if and only if it's necessary.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:20 PM   #1082
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Well, I'm leaving the office for the day, but will try to sign on one more time before the vote count. At this point, I see no reason to change from my AE vote so thats where I'm staying.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:28 PM   #1083
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Well I'm on for the first time since this morning. I am leaning in one direction, but want to reread the posts since the last lynch before I cast my vote. Expect it shortly before deadline.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:38 PM   #1084
Mr. Wednesday
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kingfc22 is MIA, McSweeny wavered on pennywise and currently has no vote. I'm not sure what Barkeep is up to.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:40 PM   #1085
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I don't see any way that I could think of changing my vote for Ardent. Any role that he pretends to be playing, other than wolf, is a lie. Knowing this, there is zero gain in going after someone else that I may strongly suspect of being a wolf. I'll take my 100% option instead of a 70% option.

Mr Wednesday, I'll post this out there in the event that I'm not around to say it later - I believe you are a villager but I think you are tied to the wrong horse here. And ultimately you are not helping the cause right now.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:40 PM   #1086
Mr. Wednesday
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Barkeep, are you going to vote for hoops or do I need to try to persuade you?
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:41 PM   #1087
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Hoops, I'm not wedded to voting for you, but I simply cannot allow ardent to be lynched at this point without conclusive proof that he's a wolf.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:47 PM   #1088
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And I can't offer it, other than the fact that his attack on me is completely without merit. I'm happy to quote my own posts where I tried to build a case against him, but they are largely efforts I undertook because of his relentless attack on me and I'm not 100% convinced of their validity.

For anyone who is not tied to wolf interests, the fake role reveal by Ardent should be a knockout argument. But it clearly has not been, which leaves me to wonder just how many wolves are still out there.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:47 PM   #1089
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OK, since you guys are persisting in trying to lose the game...

ardent is one of the lovers. If you are wrong, you effectively lynch two villagers. You cannot afford to lynch him without conclusive proof that he's a wolf, and you don't have that right now.

I'm willing to lynch either hoops or McSweeny, and I need the help of the non-wolves to get that done.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:48 PM   #1090
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I need to be persuaded. have a very bad computer. have long post typed. Analyzign now.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:48 PM   #1091
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Dola - anyone know what time the deadline is tonight? 8PM EST or 9PM EST?
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:48 PM   #1092
Mr. Wednesday
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8 pm EST was what Neon said Friday night / Saturday morning.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:50 PM   #1093
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A. I am very glad to see penny is back.

B. McSweeny has been on the chopping block two times already and two times he has escaped. Before this whole bruhaha he was my number 1 suspect.

C. When I first read Ardent's reveal this morning I thought "Well that's interesting. We'll likely hear a couple other allude to some sort of secret role then." I've seen no allusions. I find it hard to believe that Ardent was the only one with a secret role.

D. I also gain personally by having Ardent around. He's clearly had me on his circle of trust list. If he's read me right, shouldn't that count for something?

E. However, I just can't find it in the rules to say that Ardent is a dreamweaver. Seems to me that when Neon has had other secrets there have been ambiguities in the rules about it. No such ambiguity here that I can find except it would would make Neon's nonrevealing of the secendary roles make that much more sense. If Ardent is telling the truth, I will be a little frustrated since I feel like a lot of good analysis has been worthless due to our inability to know the circumstances we're playing with. After all, if there are secret roles for the villagers, presumably there would be secret roles for the wolves. So does that mean someone like Blade, who was clearly not playing his normal game, had a secret role after all?

F. This whole post is kinda worthless now that I see Wednesday's reveal. I was looking for a good reason to go a third way and now I've found it.

Vote McSweeny
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:51 PM   #1094
Mr. Wednesday
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UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE MCSWEENY
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:52 PM   #1095
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Wednesday, I took your meaning and tried to be at least a little discreet in my posts back to you. I'm not happy with collateral damage here, but I'm also not going to fall on the sword when I know we are getting a wolf. It sounds like we got a bad deal here with the lovers.

So what do you do with the lovers tomorrow when I'm a dead villager and Ardent is still with you? Is this an advantageous situation compared to getting a wolf tonight?
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:52 PM   #1096
st.cronin
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If Mr. W says ardent is a lover, does that make Mr. W a lover as well?
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:53 PM   #1097
Mr. Wednesday
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
hoops, I'm sorry I had to come out and say it, but without getting any movement at all (and if you had swapped your vote to McSweeny, I would have run with it), I had to throw it out there.
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:55 PM   #1098
Barkeep49
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Damn forgot about the rules.

VOTE MCSWEENY
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:56 PM   #1099
Mr. Wednesday
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
Good and timely catch.
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Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1

Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)
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Old 11-21-2005, 06:58 PM   #1100
st.cronin
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
I still don't understand how we know that ardent is a lover.
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