Werewolf XVII: Return of the Wolves - Page 23

Barkeep49 · 11-21-2005, 06:58 PM

Last post I'm even going to try to do before I go to my school board meeting: Wednesday if you hadn't changed your vote I'd have missed it altogether.

This was an interesting one folks. I feel bummed I had to be such a spectator.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 06:58 PM

And I would have done it if I was even a little uncertain about AE. Heck, I probably would have done it without the fake role reveal because I've been trying for a couple of hundred posts now to make up reasons for how he could be mistaken instead of wolf. I'm not usually as off-base about someone as I was with ardent for the first three days.

Lesson learned - always look out for the guys who tell you that you are in their circle of trust early

Of course, since I publish my trust list early in games I suppose that now becomes fodder to use against me ....

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I still don't understand how we know that ardent is a lover.

You have my word for it, and the knowledge that it's something I wouldn't put out there if I didn't see a pressing need. If the lovers are both villagers, I just signed their death warrant tonight.

st.cronin · 11-21-2005, 07:00 PM

Somebody other than Mr. Wednesday explain to me how he could know that ardent is a lover.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 07:16 PM

Guys, I'm now home (in Missouri, a 6 hour drive), but my wife isn't exactly willing to let me explain anymore.

Don't do the wrong thing here, guys. Hoops is a wolf. If you don't kill him, you'll regret it.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 07:21 PM

When I'm dead you'll see I'm telling the truth. I'll die tonight by the hands of the wolves.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 07:22 PM

AE, if I'm understanding tonight's deadline properly then it appears we'll have plenty of time to argue again tomorrow, assuming you don't eat me tonight (I'm disturbed just typing this .... shudder).

For now I'm interested in finding out about McSweeny. But you already know the answer to that, don't you?

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 07:29 PM

just got home from work...going to try to catch up

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 07:59 PM

I was going to:

Vote MCSWEENEY

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 08:01 PM

I'm pretty sure the deadline was an hour ago. My reasons for leaning that way is there has to be one wolf who voted for Pass on day 1 and his actions are my wolf-like than those of RA.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

AE, if I'm understanding tonight's deadline properly then it appears we'll have plenty of time to argue again tomorrow, assuming you don't eat me tonight (I'm disturbed just typing this .... shudder).

For now I'm interested in finding out about McSweeny. But you already know the answer to that, don't you?

Not at all, wolf. You know the answer to it. My fellow villagers have made A HUGE MISTAKE in not killing you now.

When I die, because you will engineer it, they'll understand.

I also understand you want to chicken out of the bet, that's ok.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 08:32 PM

No, I'm just not inclined to make a 2nd bet on top of the first, for reasons previously stated.

However, if you would like to substitute Silo's Pizza for the Hattrick bet then I would be happy to do that. It isn't too far from my office and I would like to meet someone from FOFC. The past day aside, I've always enjoyed your company on the board. Free pizza is good, too. I'm partial to Giordano's but willing to try something new on a recommendation.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 08:45 PM

It won't be free, you'll be buying.

Neon_Chaos · 11-21-2005, 08:58 PM

McSweeny - st.cronin, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49
hoopsguy - ardent enthusiast, dubb93,
ardent enthusiast - hoopsguy, pennywisesb, saldana
No Vote: kingfc22, McSweeny

You gather around McSweeny and bind his arms and legs together. He pleads his innocence, but noone listens. He si soong strung up and hung, and you wait for him to turn. Nothing. The lifeless body of McSweeny swings from the rafters as you search through his belongings. Nothing.

McSweeny was a villager! McSweeny has been lynched! It is now Night (4), kindly send in your night actions as soon as possible.

Player List:
saldana
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1.
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3
ardent enthusiast
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny - Villager, lynched Day 4
Mr. Wednesday
SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2
dubb93
Barkeep49
Blade6119 - Villager, killed Night 3

Blade6119 · 11-21-2005, 08:59 PM

.........

Poli · 11-21-2005, 09:01 PM

.......
I better start practicing. I believe the wolves just won.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 09:02 PM

I just can't believe you guys didn't help me get rid of Hoops. What were you guys thinking?

Blade6119 · 11-21-2005, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

.......
I better start practicing. I believe the wolves just won.

.........

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 09:03 PM

If I understand the rules correctly then McSweeny could have saved himself and hung AE by casting a vote on him. This makes zero sense to me. He was pretty aggressive with preserving himself earlier in the game.

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 09:09 PM

Crap.

Poli · 11-21-2005, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I understand the rules correctly then McSweeny could have saved himself and hung AE by casting a vote on him. This makes zero sense to me. He was pretty aggressive with preserving himself earlier in the game.

He probably figured what's the use. You and the other wolves have everyone else snowed at this point.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 09:14 PM

Ugh.

I'm not thinking there's gonna be any room for error after tonight. At least one person who's been getting more or less a free pass is clearly not what they seem.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 09:15 PM

Dola, I don't think we're totally done for just yet, and I do think that tonight poses an interesting choice for the wolves as far as who they kill.

Barkeep49 · 11-21-2005, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If I understand the rules correctly then McSweeny could have saved himself and hung AE by casting a vote on him. This makes zero sense to me. He was pretty aggressive with preserving himself earlier in the game.

He wasn't around at lynch time to know it was going to swing to him, I think. It seemed like a two dog fight at that point. I feel like I've made a terrible decision, sacrificing an innocent to protect a guilty, whether you or Ardent.

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 09:30 PM

Here is what I have so far in regards to vote patterns. I have lableled strikes as votes for known villagers. I am a villager and that is why I count votes for me in that category. I did not include day 2 votes since SnDvls was a goner.

st. cronin: 2 strikes (SirFoz, McSweeny), unknown (dubb)
RA: 2 strikes (Pass, McSweeny), unknown (RPI)
Mr. W: 2 strikes (king, McSweeny), unknown (hoops)
Barkeep: 2 strikes (McSweeny twice), unknown (dubb)
dubb: 2 strikes (McSweeny, king), unknown (hoops)
king: 2 strikes (I would have voted twice for McSweeny), unknown (RPI)

AE: 1 strike (king), unknown (hoops)

saldana: unknown (AE)
hoops: unknown (AE twice, dubb)
penny: no votes

One thing that sticks out to me is that hoops has not voted for anyone that has been "cleared" yet. I'm going to guess that AE was the seer and his dreamweaver reveal was his way of telling us that hoops is a wolf. Sorry I wasn't here to catch on to that. If hoops is a wolf, he has to kill AE next to prevent AE from spotting anyone else.

My other suspect would be RA since he is the last one to vote for Pass and it is looking more and more likely that RPI was clean.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 09:33 PM

I don't know how I could have argued more pointedly to lynch Ardent. I was flabbergasted that people went in the McSweeny direction today.

So Raiders is now last man standing with a vote on the Herbalist. Should we all just vote for him tomorrow instead of looking at AE or me? The wolves must have helped lynch the herbalist right? No way that we (the villagers) didn't need the wolves help to kill one of our own on day 1? Or that we haven't already bagged the cunning wolf between RPI and McSweeny?

If AE and I are both alive tomorrow then people will have to make a decision on who they believe between the two of us. And if we lose a man tonight then tomorrow's lynch may very well be the point of no return.

And if I'm dead in the morning then I will haunt every single one of you if AE is not a unanimous lynch vote tomorrow.

Note that I did not include a scenario where AE is dead tomorrow morning. The wolves will know if one of their number is a lover. They will not kill his lover/partner because that person is already in their pocket unless that villager KNOWS the truth (not just suspects) and are willing to sacrifice themselves to help the village.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 09:48 PM

King, just to make sure I understand your logic - you think that AE is the seer because he has voted for you (one strike) and I'm the wolf because I've voted for people who are still alive?

You think that the seer is the guy who has been pressing for you as a wolf for two days (although turning down the volume today to go after me) versus me who hasn't really had much of a thought on you all game?

Also, if we have succeeded in killing the cunning wolf by now then most of your analysis is hampered. You have RPI as unknown but McSweeny as clean. Both showed up as villagers upon lynching.

I like the thought process but I obviously disagree with the conclusions you draw and some of your assumptions en route to reaching that conclusion.

Ardent isn't saying he is the seer because he isn't the seer. If he was he would not be targeting me. He is saying he isn't the seer because he doesn't want to draw even more attention to himself by assuming a taken role. That person will know he is not the seer and would have to conclude he is the wolf. Hence the manufactured role as an attempt to walk the tightrope of lynching me without letting a villager know he is a wolf.

I don't think that worked. It would have been convenient for me today if the seer had announced himself because I wouldn't have had to spend so much time defending myself, but I'm glad he didn't because the wolves are still left guessing tonight on who to kill.

If AE claims he is the seer tomorrow and that he was trying to hide behind the fake role then ask yourself why they would let him live through the night. This is some of the same logic he used to accuse me yesterday, so I'm enjoying throwing this out there.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 09:52 PM

Well, it's really impossible to say where we should go without seeing what comes out of the night actions. I will, therefore, defer further analysis until then (assuming I come out of it alive), when I actually may have something to analyze.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 09:53 PM

Dola, I think it could prove to be pretty crucial who steered votes toward ardent or toward McSweeny.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

So Raiders is now last man standing with a vote on the Herbalist. Should we all just vote for him tomorrow instead of looking at AE or me? The wolves must have helped lynch the herbalist right? No way that we (the villagers) didn't need the wolves help to kill one of our own on day 1?

RA is gaining rapidly on my threshold of suspicion right now, but I don't think it's a given the wolves helped us bag the herbalist. I think it's possible they sat back and chortled while we did their dirty work for them.

Quote:

If AE and I are both alive tomorrow then people will have to make a decision on who they believe between the two of us. And if we lose a man tonight then tomorrow's lynch may very well be the point of no return.

I think this is a false dichotomy, at least if you think ardent is a wolf. We will still be at least one short (i.e. we have every reason to believe there are at least two wolves outstanding), and we will still have the same reasons for wanting to find the other one tomorrow as we had today.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 09:58 PM

In my case, Ardent steered my vote towards Ardent.

In terms of analysis, I don't think I'm terribly long for this world so I'm a little more gun-shy about keeping my thoughts to myself right now.

Barkeep49 · 11-21-2005, 09:59 PM

King looking at your chart I'm confused why voting for RPI isn't a strike.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 10:01 PM

MrW, I think you are right if AE is a lover/wolf. We should have one more try as long as the wolves didn't start with 4.

Even in that scenario, which I consider unlikely, that would assume that we have not gotten the cunning wolf yet (I think, didn't run numbers on 4 because it doesn't intellectually make sense for me).

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

King looking at your chart I'm confused why voting for RPI isn't a strike.

IMO, I think RPI was the cunning wolf and McSweeny was not. RPI knew he would be viewed as a villager which led him to be very aggressive and even if we did lynch him there would still be a cloud of doubt surrounding his status in the game.

kingfc22 · 11-21-2005, 10:04 PM

And yes, I am eagerly waiting to see what happens after the night action tonight.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 10:05 PM

7-3, wolves turn
Assuming AE is a wolf and lover, they will not kill lovers
6-3, villagers turn
Bad lynch, 5-3, wolves turn
Again, can't get lovers
4-3, villager turn
4-2, lynch AE who is brutal wolf
3-2, wolf turn = game over

So there is a scenario with AE as the brutal wolf where we have one more miss and it is game over. Again, assuming we have not bagged the cunning wolf yet.

And I'm not going to bother running numbers for four wolves, since it is obvious that the wolves own us if Neon gave them those kind of numbers to start.

Barkeep49 · 11-21-2005, 10:09 PM

Hoops you're missing one crucial aspect there: The lack of a lover double kill for the wolves makes it more likely that one of the two nights they get a blessed giving us an extra day. Mathematically this is true, undermining somewhat your reasoning for why we go after ardent tomorrow instead of you.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 10:16 PM

Barkeep, I concede that point. The example I gave above was meant to illustrate a worst-case scenario, not a most likely scenario. The only thing I was trying to do there was demonstrate that there was a possibility that tomorrow was our last stand. Intuitively that felt right, but MrW challenged the assumption so I worked through it.

Also, I did not include the wolves capturing a cursed in that analysis. Which is equally as likely as hitting a blessed (based on Neon's post after Fozzie died, or at least my interpretation of it). That would look like this:

7-3, wolves turn
Assuming that AE is a wolf and lover they will not kill lovers
Wolves get a cursed,
6-4 villager turn
Bad lynch, 5-4, wolves turn and game over

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 10:25 PM

I didn't challenge the assumption that tomorrow was the last stand. I challenged the assumption that we have to go after ardent tomorrow.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 10:26 PM

Dola, er, rather, the assumption that tomorrow we will have to go after either hoops or ardent.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 10:33 PM

OK, I guess I can agree that it is possible to lynch a wolf without going after Ardent/Hoopsguy. But if there is not something absolutely compelling I don't know why you would.

Do you think it is possible that we are both villagers? I gave up on the idea of Ardent as a villager (for good, was already most of the way there) with the Dreamweaver story.

hoopsguy · 11-21-2005, 10:47 PM

Dola - I don't know why you would go down that path without evidence that is absolutely compelling. If you have zero idea who is telling the truth between AE and I then you are still at 50/50 there compared to taking a stab someplace else. And I don't know how someone could have read all the posts between AE and I and still find themselves at 50/50. Maybe not 100/0, but I would expect most people to have an opinion on this topic.

The argument that I do buy is that by focusing solely on AE and I that we let the other wolf/wolves escape serious scrutiny for another day. If that is where you were headed then I completely agree. It has seriously blunted my interest in working through scenarios not involving AE as a wolf. And I'm not really doing a good job of critically analyzing who is helping him.

Time to get some sleep, see if I get to work on this again tomorrow ...

st.cronin · 11-21-2005, 10:56 PM

I guess we have probably gotten the cunning wolf at this point. It would make sense for the wolves to give him up early, to cast some doubt on our strategies.

Neon_Chaos · 11-21-2005, 11:22 PM

Last night, you heard a scream... a loud ear-piercing scream of terror. You would not dare to go outside. Morning breaks and you all look around.

You find that someone is missing. You look for Mr. Wednesday, but you cannot find him. You finally spot his half-eaten body near a sidestreet. At the sight of his corpse, Ardent Enthusiast collapses on the ground, clutching his chest. You immediately rush around him and try to ressucitate him... to no avail.

You rummage through Mr. Wednesday's belongings, and find nothing of note. You then search through Ardent Enthusiast's belongings, and find several mysterious runes and a magic ball.

Mr. Wednesday has been killed! Ardent Enthusiast has died! Mr. Wednesday was a villager! Ardent Enthusiast was the Seer! It is now Day (5), votes are due at 8 PM EST!

Player List:
saldana
st.cronin
kingfc22
Raiders Army
Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1
hoopsguy
RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3
ardent enthusiast - Seer, died Night 4
pennywisesb
SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2
McSweeny - Villager, lynched Day 4
Mr. Wednesday - Villager, killed Night 4
SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2
dubb93
Barkeep49
Blade6119 - Villager, killed Night 3

Blade6119 · 11-21-2005, 11:42 PM

.........

st.cronin · 11-21-2005, 11:47 PM

I have to think about this. I have tried to be uber-rational so far. I think we are almost to the point where that may be useful.

Mr. Wednesday · 11-21-2005, 11:47 PM

McSweeny · 11-22-2005, 12:25 AM

oh well played guys

kingfc22 · 11-22-2005, 01:21 AM

Vote HOOPSGUY

kingfc22 · 11-22-2005, 01:25 AM

Looks like I was right about AE being the seer. Damn, wish I was around today.

Most wanted list:
1. Hoops
2. RA

11-21-2005, 07:16 PM	#1105
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Guys, I'm now home (in Missouri, a 6 hour drive), but my wife isn't exactly willing to let me explain anymore. Don't do the wrong thing here, guys. Hoops is a wolf. If you don't kill him, you'll regret it. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-21-2005, 07:21 PM	#1106
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	When I'm dead you'll see I'm telling the truth. I'll die tonight by the hands of the wolves. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-21-2005, 07:29 PM	#1108
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	just got home from work...going to try to catch up __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 07:59 PM	#1109
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	I was going to: Vote MCSWEENEY __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 08:01 PM	#1110
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	I'm pretty sure the deadline was an hour ago. My reasons for leaning that way is there has to be one wolf who voted for Pass on day 1 and his actions are my wolf-like than those of RA. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 06:58 PM	#1101
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Last post I'm even going to try to do before I go to my school board meeting: Wednesday if you hadn't changed your vote I'd have missed it altogether. This was an interesting one folks. I feel bummed I had to be such a spectator.

11-21-2005, 06:58 PM	#1102
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	And I would have done it if I was even a little uncertain about AE. Heck, I probably would have done it without the fake role reveal because I've been trying for a couple of hundred posts now to make up reasons for how he could be mistaken instead of wolf. I'm not usually as off-base about someone as I was with ardent for the first three days. Lesson learned - always look out for the guys who tell you that you are in their circle of trust early Of course, since I publish my trust list early in games I suppose that now becomes fodder to use against me ....

11-21-2005, 07:00 PM	#1104
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Somebody other than Mr. Wednesday explain to me how he could know that ardent is a lover.

11-21-2005, 07:22 PM	#1107
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	AE, if I'm understanding tonight's deadline properly then it appears we'll have plenty of time to argue again tomorrow, assuming you don't eat me tonight (I'm disturbed just typing this .... shudder). For now I'm interested in finding out about McSweeny. But you already know the answer to that, don't you?

11-21-2005, 08:32 PM	#1112
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	No, I'm just not inclined to make a 2nd bet on top of the first, for reasons previously stated. However, if you would like to substitute Silo's Pizza for the Hattrick bet then I would be happy to do that. It isn't too far from my office and I would like to meet someone from FOFC. The past day aside, I've always enjoyed your company on the board. Free pizza is good, too. I'm partial to Giordano's but willing to try something new on a recommendation.

11-21-2005, 08:45 PM	#1113
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	It won't be free, you'll be buying. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-21-2005, 08:58 PM	#1114
Neon_Chaos Pro Starter Join Date: Nov 2004 Location: Parañaque, Philippines	McSweeny - st.cronin, Raiders Army, Mr. Wednesday, Barkeep49 hoopsguy - ardent enthusiast, dubb93, ardent enthusiast - hoopsguy, pennywisesb, saldana No Vote: kingfc22, McSweeny You gather around McSweeny and bind his arms and legs together. He pleads his innocence, but noone listens. He si soong strung up and hung, and you wait for him to turn. Nothing. The lifeless body of McSweeny swings from the rafters as you search through his belongings. Nothing. McSweeny was a villager! McSweeny has been lynched! It is now Night (4), kindly send in your night actions as soon as possible. Player List: saldana st.cronin kingfc22 Raiders Army Passacaglia - Herbalist, lynched Day 1. hoopsguy RPI-Fan - Villager, lynched Day 3 ardent enthusiast pennywisesb SnDvls - Werewolf, lynched Day 2 McSweeny - Villager, lynched Day 4 Mr. Wednesday SirFozzie - Villager, killed Night 2 dubb93 Barkeep49 Blade6119 - Villager, killed Night 3 __________________ Come and see.

11-21-2005, 08:59 PM	#1115
Blade6119 Coordinator Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Scottsdale, Arizona	......... __________________ *Underachievement* The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. *Despair* It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. *Demotivation* Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html

11-21-2005, 09:01 PM	#1116
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	....... I better start practicing. I believe the wolves just won. __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-21-2005, 09:02 PM	#1117
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	I just can't believe you guys didn't help me get rid of Hoops. What were you guys thinking? __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

11-21-2005, 09:03 PM	#1119
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	If I understand the rules correctly then McSweeny could have saved himself and hung AE by casting a vote on him. This makes zero sense to me. He was pretty aggressive with preserving himself earlier in the game.

11-21-2005, 09:09 PM	#1120
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Crap. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 09:14 PM	#1122
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Ugh. I'm not thinking there's gonna be any room for error after tonight. At least one person who's been getting more or less a free pass is clearly not what they seem. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 09:15 PM	#1123
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Dola, I don't think we're totally done for just yet, and I do think that tonight poses an interesting choice for the wolves as far as who they kill. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 09:30 PM	#1125
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	Here is what I have so far in regards to vote patterns. I have lableled strikes as votes for known villagers. I am a villager and that is why I count votes for me in that category. I did not include day 2 votes since SnDvls was a goner. st. cronin: 2 strikes (SirFoz, McSweeny), unknown (dubb) RA: 2 strikes (Pass, McSweeny), unknown (RPI) Mr. W: 2 strikes (king, McSweeny), unknown (hoops) Barkeep: 2 strikes (McSweeny twice), unknown (dubb) dubb: 2 strikes (McSweeny, king), unknown (hoops) king: 2 strikes (I would have voted twice for McSweeny), unknown (RPI) AE: 1 strike (king), unknown (hoops) saldana: unknown (AE) hoops: unknown (AE twice, dubb) penny: no votes One thing that sticks out to me is that hoops has not voted for anyone that has been "cleared" yet. I'm going to guess that AE was the seer and his dreamweaver reveal was his way of telling us that hoops is a wolf. Sorry I wasn't here to catch on to that. If hoops is a wolf, he has to kill AE next to prevent AE from spotting anyone else. My other suspect would be RA since he is the last one to vote for Pass and it is looking more and more likely that RPI was clean. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 09:33 PM	#1126
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I don't know how I could have argued more pointedly to lynch Ardent. I was flabbergasted that people went in the McSweeny direction today. So Raiders is now last man standing with a vote on the Herbalist. Should we all just vote for him tomorrow instead of looking at AE or me? The wolves must have helped lynch the herbalist right? No way that we (the villagers) didn't need the wolves help to kill one of our own on day 1? Or that we haven't already bagged the cunning wolf between RPI and McSweeny? If AE and I are both alive tomorrow then people will have to make a decision on who they believe between the two of us. And if we lose a man tonight then tomorrow's lynch may very well be the point of no return. And if I'm dead in the morning then I will haunt every single one of you if AE is not a unanimous lynch vote tomorrow. Note that I did not include a scenario where AE is dead tomorrow morning. The wolves will know if one of their number is a lover. They will not kill his lover/partner because that person is already in their pocket unless that villager KNOWS the truth (not just suspects) and are willing to sacrifice themselves to help the village.

11-21-2005, 09:48 PM	#1127
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	King, just to make sure I understand your logic - you think that AE is the seer because he has voted for you (one strike) and I'm the wolf because I've voted for people who are still alive? You think that the seer is the guy who has been pressing for you as a wolf for two days (although turning down the volume today to go after me) versus me who hasn't really had much of a thought on you all game? Also, if we have succeeded in killing the cunning wolf by now then most of your analysis is hampered. You have RPI as unknown but McSweeny as clean. Both showed up as villagers upon lynching. I like the thought process but I obviously disagree with the conclusions you draw and some of your assumptions en route to reaching that conclusion. Ardent isn't saying he is the seer because he isn't the seer. If he was he would not be targeting me. He is saying he isn't the seer because he doesn't want to draw even more attention to himself by assuming a taken role. That person will know he is not the seer and would have to conclude he is the wolf. Hence the manufactured role as an attempt to walk the tightrope of lynching me without letting a villager know he is a wolf. I don't think that worked. It would have been convenient for me today if the seer had announced himself because I wouldn't have had to spend so much time defending myself, but I'm glad he didn't because the wolves are still left guessing tonight on who to kill. If AE claims he is the seer tomorrow and that he was trying to hide behind the fake role then ask yourself why they would let him live through the night. This is some of the same logic he used to accuse me yesterday, so I'm enjoying throwing this out there.

11-21-2005, 09:52 PM	#1128
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Well, it's really impossible to say where we should go without seeing what comes out of the night actions. I will, therefore, defer further analysis until then (assuming I come out of it alive), when I actually may have something to analyze. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 09:53 PM	#1129
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Dola, I think it could prove to be pretty crucial who steered votes toward ardent or toward McSweeny. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 09:58 PM	#1131
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	In my case, Ardent steered my vote towards Ardent. In terms of analysis, I don't think I'm terribly long for this world so I'm a little more gun-shy about keeping my thoughts to myself right now.

11-21-2005, 09:59 PM	#1132
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	King looking at your chart I'm confused why voting for RPI isn't a strike.

11-21-2005, 10:01 PM	#1133
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	MrW, I think you are right if AE is a lover/wolf. We should have one more try as long as the wolves didn't start with 4. Even in that scenario, which I consider unlikely, that would assume that we have not gotten the cunning wolf yet (I think, didn't run numbers on 4 because it doesn't intellectually make sense for me).

11-21-2005, 10:04 PM	#1135
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	And yes, I am eagerly waiting to see what happens after the night action tonight. __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

11-21-2005, 10:05 PM	#1136
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	7-3, wolves turn Assuming AE is a wolf and lover, they will not kill lovers 6-3, villagers turn Bad lynch, 5-3, wolves turn Again, can't get lovers 4-3, villager turn 4-2, lynch AE who is brutal wolf 3-2, wolf turn = game over So there is a scenario with AE as the brutal wolf where we have one more miss and it is game over. Again, assuming we have not bagged the cunning wolf yet. And I'm not going to bother running numbers for four wolves, since it is obvious that the wolves own us if Neon gave them those kind of numbers to start.

11-21-2005, 10:09 PM	#1137
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Hoops you're missing one crucial aspect there: The lack of a lover double kill for the wolves makes it more likely that one of the two nights they get a blessed giving us an extra day. Mathematically this is true, undermining somewhat your reasoning for why we go after ardent tomorrow instead of you.

11-21-2005, 10:16 PM	#1138
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Barkeep, I concede that point. The example I gave above was meant to illustrate a worst-case scenario, not a most likely scenario. The only thing I was trying to do there was demonstrate that there was a possibility that tomorrow was our last stand. Intuitively that felt right, but MrW challenged the assumption so I worked through it. Also, I did not include the wolves capturing a cursed in that analysis. Which is equally as likely as hitting a blessed (based on Neon's post after Fozzie died, or at least my interpretation of it). That would look like this: 7-3, wolves turn Assuming that AE is a wolf and lover they will not kill lovers Wolves get a cursed, 6-4 villager turn Bad lynch, 5-4, wolves turn and game over

11-21-2005, 10:25 PM	#1139
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	I didn't challenge the assumption that tomorrow was the last stand. I challenged the assumption that we have to go after ardent tomorrow. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 10:26 PM	#1140
Mr. Wednesday Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: South Bend, IN	Dola, er, rather, the assumption that tomorrow we will have to go after either hoops or ardent. __________________ Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you)

11-21-2005, 10:33 PM	#1141
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	OK, I guess I can agree that it is possible to lynch a wolf without going after Ardent/Hoopsguy. But if there is not something absolutely compelling I don't know why you would. Do you think it is possible that we are both villagers? I gave up on the idea of Ardent as a villager (for good, was already most of the way there) with the Dreamweaver story.

11-21-2005, 10:47 PM	#1142
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Dola - I don't know why you would go down that path without evidence that is absolutely compelling. If you have zero idea who is telling the truth between AE and I then you are still at 50/50 there compared to taking a stab someplace else. And I don't know how someone could have read all the posts between AE and I and still find themselves at 50/50. Maybe not 100/0, but I would expect most people to have an opinion on this topic. The argument that I do buy is that by focusing solely on AE and I that we let the other wolf/wolves escape serious scrutiny for another day. If that is where you were headed then I completely agree. It has seriously blunted my interest in working through scenarios not involving AE as a wolf. And I'm not really doing a good job of critically analyzing who is helping him. Time to get some sleep, see if I get to work on this again tomorrow ...