WW 109 - Hungry for Gold (Game Over, Wolves Win, Team USA Wins) - Page 18

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 09:14 AM

Pass, I know that you've said it but it is a lower percentage play than any other player outside of PB because I only have a chance of being one wolf role, where anyone else has a chance of being three wolf roles. A vote for me is a vote against math in this case

2nd part - why would I come into a game for another player and come guns blazing as a wolf when the wolves appear to be in complete control of the game? And "why would I have knowledge that I was scanned?" - assuming standard WW, no one has knowledge that they were scanned.

I'm beginning to feel that you are trying harder to pick apart my statements than actually catch a wolf. Those are mutually exclusive propositions, whether you know it or not (I think you do).

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Thomkal has pinged me some but I'm voting Pass today.

Our web filter is being weird today so I may/may not have access. I'll try my best to be around. Sorry.

Is there a reason? This goes for hoops, too. I can understand that NTN is voting me because I came after him pretty hard on Friday, but you and hoops are more questionable. Hoops voted me because he thought DV had scanned me, but now that that's been shown not to be the case, he has his vote on me for no reason. But since DV had told you who he scanned, there's no reason for you to have been under this assumption, so I'm not sure why you ever wanted to vote for me. To double the frustration with you, you're cleared, so I can't question your motives. I think this makes it more important for you to have something to go on. Your arguments are gold here, and if you blow that opportunity by just saying "eh...I guess this guy" I don't think it's doing the village any favors. I realize you may not have access, but hopefully you and NTN can step up with some chatter instead of just voting off gut.

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 09:24 AM

Pass, I'm basing this on several issues. Vote history, something about the dialogue between you and Telle pinged me (not sure why looking back), the push you've made on ntn and danny (although both would be fairly aggressive for a wolf at the time), my surprise that there wasn't a big push on you after the Danny thing and I don't have the rest of my notes in front of me but if I can get to them today, I'll add to this. For me, I'm definitely looking at:

You, Thomkal, and Russia. I would not be surprised to find two to three of our wolves in that group.

I still might be willing to go a different route with the above listed group.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I know that you've said it but it is a lower percentage play than any other player outside of PB because I only have a chance of being one wolf role, where anyone else has a chance of being three wolf roles. A vote for me is a vote against math in this case

And NTN. You keep forgetting NTN!

And the vote is against math if you ignore some of the information. A wolf is a wolf -- you had a certain chance of being a wolf at the beginning of the game, and I don't care much about which one you are. Does knowing that you're not the Seer, or the Bodyguard, or the Fool, or the Judge, make you less likely to be a villager? I recognize that there's a lot of faulty logic in what I just said, but the point is, I'm looking for wolf activity, and I think I've laid some out. I'm not going to hang my hat on the ONE seer scan that exists, especially since we know there's a cunning out there. And frankly, the fact that you're putting yourself on a cleared list and completely ignoring that fact because it's a "low-percentage play" (and again, ignoring NTN) makes it look like you are trying way too hard to convince everyone.

Quote:

2nd part - why would I come into a game for another player and come guns blazing as a wolf when the wolves appear to be in complete control of the game? And "why would I have knowledge that I was scanned?" - assuming standard WW, no one has knowledge that they were scanned.

Right, that was my assumption. You said that in order for me to vote this way, I'd have to think that you're the cunning (I do), and that you played this way without knowledge that you were scanned. And I was trying to ask, "well yeah -- why *would* you have knowledge that you were scanned?"

As for why you're coming guns blazing -- that's exactly what I'm asking you in my last post! So, yeah...why don't you tell us why you're coming out guns blazing? Based on your post here, the fact that you're doing that somehow shows your villagerness? Then I must ask, does the same apply to me?

Quote:

I'm beginning to feel that you are trying harder to pick apart my statements than actually catch a wolf. Those are mutually exclusive propositions, whether you know it or not (I think you do).

I agree that I'm trying to pick at your statements, but that's probably because I have the double going on here of suspecting you as well as trying to save myself. I do suspect you, but my vote isn't locked in on you. The other half of my coin is that I'm trying to figure out why you're voting me. Earlier, I knew you -- you thought DV had scanned me. While I disagreed with it, at least then I knew what it was. Now, I just have no idea.

That said, I'm definitely up for some wolf hunting. But I don't think you'll have much luck convincing me that the person you're voting for is a wolf.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Pass, I'm basing this on several issues. Vote history, something about the dialogue between you and Telle pinged me (not sure why looking back), the push you've made on ntn and danny (although both would be fairly aggressive for a wolf at the time), my surprise that there wasn't a big push on you after the Danny thing and I don't have the rest of my notes in front of me but if I can get to them today, I'll add to this. For me, I'm definitely looking at:

You, Thomkal, and Russia. I would not be surprised to find two to three of our wolves in that group.

I still might be willing to go a different route with the above listed group.

Thanks, PB.

I recognize my vote history hasn't been great. But hey, it's not like anyone else's is any better. I'm not sure what you mean about the conversation with Telle -- as far as I remember, the only thing I've talked to her about was where I asked her for a vote count history. Other than that, she's completely slipped my radar, and I should probably have another look at her votes and posts. And I'm not sure what to say about Danny. I do remember that you put a vote in for him right after I did, which I think made it 2-0. So you've got to admit, it was an understandable vote by me. I also remember being worried that as the Danny-NTN vote went down, I thought I saw some moves to save NTN and went that way, thinking that NTN might be the wolf. Is that what you mean, not the fact that I voted Danny in the first place, but the vote switch? Yeah, it was definitely a mistake, as NTN could have been a Seer (or was almost a Seer, depending on how you want to put it, I guess). But I didn't realize we were villager-villager then. I guess I was going off the assumption that we were villager-wolf (since if we were v-v or w-w it really didn't matter), and trying to fight against the fact that the wolves would vote to save the villager -- that's a fairly typical strategy for me.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:41 AM

Oh hey, Telle is in the thread. Telle, do you know what conversation PB is talking about?

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:43 AM

Also, since PB and Telle are in the thread -- do you guys have any thoughts on hoops? I'll take a straw poll of the two of you. If I'm not going to get anywhere with this, I should probably look at other options. But am I making any headway here, or is it falling on deaf ears since he was scanned?

Telle · 03-01-2010, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh hey, Telle is in the thread. Telle, do you know what conversation PB is talking about?

Nope. Like you, the only time I remember having a conversation with you was when you asked me to post vote counts.

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 09:45 AM

Definitely understand Pass, and like I said I'm sorry that I don't have all my notes.

Pass, I will say, my vote is either staying with you or moving to Thomkal.

I plan on reading back through today but I have a busy day so we'll see.

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 09:46 AM

Pass, the scan does a lot for Hoops in my book. But also, I don't think he comes in guns blazing like he did before knowing about the scan. He gets a pass in my book as I think he is truly pro-village (and remember, I never trust the hateful jerkface).

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Definitely understand Pass, and like I said I'm sorry that I don't have all my notes.

Pass, I will say, my vote is either staying with you or moving to Thomkal.

I plan on reading back through today but I have a busy day so we'll see.

Thanks for the heads-up. What's the story on Thomkal?

Telle · 03-01-2010, 09:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, since PB and Telle are in the thread -- do you guys have any thoughts on hoops? I'll take a straw poll of the two of you. If I'm not going to get anywhere with this, I should probably look at other options. But am I making any headway here, or is it falling on deaf ears since he was scanned?

I don't think he's the number one priority. He was cleared by the seer so the only way he's a wolf is if he's cunning. I don't think chasing after a long-shot like that is worth our time right now. I'm not saying dismiss him altogether.. but I wouldn't worry about it until closer to end-game.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

But also, I don't think he comes in guns blazing like he did before knowing about the scan.

I guess this is what hoops was trying to say also, and maybe I'm just not following. He may not know he was scanned, but he knows he's the cunning. So because of that, he can't act like this unless he knew he was scanned? I'm not trying to sound accusatory here, but I think this just needs to be explained to me at a lower level, since both you and hoops have said it like it makes total sense, and I don't get it at all.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

I don't think he's the number one priority. He was cleared by the seer so the only way he's a wolf is if he's cunning. I don't think chasing after a long-shot like that is worth our time right now. I'm not saying dismiss him altogether.. but I wouldn't worry about it until closer to end-game.

That makes sense. We've got 8 players in this game, right? How many wolves do you think there are?

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Thanks for the heads-up. What's the story on Thomkal?

Frankly, his last win struck me as odd and I think that was mystery bonus day which he has not yet shared said mystery bonus.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 09:52 AM

Oh! PB, do you mean the dialogue where Telle didn't want to give away the PMs from her team?

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 09:56 AM

Yeah Pass, that's it. Like I said, I've got to go back and read it.

Telle · 03-01-2010, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh! PB, do you mean the dialogue where Telle didn't want to give away the PMs from her team?

Oh I forgot about that. That was just differing interpretations of the rules.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Frankly, his last win struck me as odd and I think that was mystery bonus day which he has not yet shared said mystery bonus.

This is interesting. So you're saying that you think the wolf reward was an event bonus and he received the benefit of it?

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 10:13 AM

I believe so, I'll go back and double-check.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

This is interesting. So you're saying that you think the wolf reward was an event bonus and he received the benefit of it?

KWhit, when you say "the wolf reward" are you talking about Day 4? That was won by Sweden, which just has PB, so the villager award was received. I think PB is just talking about Day 5. It is weird that NTN and PB (both cleared) won Silver and Bronze, but Thomkal won gold (all this info is in Post 3). I know I asked what the bonus was. Thomkal?

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 10:21 AM

I don't consider NTN remotely clear - he is either the villager role he claims (which could very, very easily not be in the game) or a wolf bluffing because he was on the ropes with the vote on Friday.

But since he is with Russia, who has three remaining players, I'm not going to pursue that angle today.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 10:28 AM

Pass, my vote for you is on you now because you are one of the three players left who is a solo uncleared on a team. Thomkal + KWhit are the two others.

Of those teams, my impression is that Team USA is the one that has had the most success this game. And, as a by-product, earning additional night benefits that could potentially go to a wolf on that team. So that is acting as my tie-breaker right now. But I'm willing to listen to strong arguments for either KWhit or Thomkal.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 10:29 AM

I'm a little disconnected from some of the earlier events in thread (wasn't active player at that time) so I'm hoping others can help fill-in-blanks for me.

What do we suspect was the wolf motivation with the night kills each of the four nights (3 successful, 1 no-kill)?

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

KWhit, when you say "the wolf reward" are you talking about Day 4? That was won by Sweden, which just has PB, so the villager award was received. I think PB is just talking about Day 5. It is weird that NTN and PB (both cleared) won Silver and Bronze, but Thomkal won gold (all this info is in Post 3). I know I asked what the bonus was. Thomkal?

I'm not sure. I was asking what PB meant when he was looking closely at Thomkal due to his win. I'm trying to connect the dots in what PB was saying is all, and hoping there's some connection that will help us narrow down the wolves.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, my vote for you is on you now because you are one of the three players left who is a solo uncleared on a team. Thomkal + KWhit are the two others.

Of those teams, my impression is that Team USA is the one that has had the most success this game. And, as a by-product, earning additional night benefits that could potentially go to a wolf on that team. So that is acting as my tie-breaker right now. But I'm willing to listen to strong arguments for either KWhit or Thomkal.

Okay, that's something, I guess. I'm the only person left on Team USA because Danny got lynched. I supported putting him in a run-off with NTN because at the time, he seemed the most wolf-like to me. It's ironic that my act of finding wolves over team preservation has actually put a target on me. You mentioned staying away from NTN because he is on Team Russia. Are you saying that because you're afraid Russia is going to vote as a bloc again? If we think they're going to do that, that makes me more determined to beat it. And I'm starting to warm up to NTN not being cleared -- it is odd that he's still alive. Personally, I think it's reveal time -- if we have a soothsayer, I'd really like to know if NTN is the Fool.

You're right that Team USA has the medal count lead. It's documented in the thread that Danny received both bonuses that we got out of that, though. So no worries about me receiving anything.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

KWhit, when you say "the wolf reward" are you talking about Day 4? That was won by Sweden, which just has PB, so the villager award was received. I think PB is just talking about Day 5. It is weird that NTN and PB (both cleared) won Silver and Bronze, but Thomkal won gold (all this info is in Post 3). I know I asked what the bonus was. Thomkal?

Sorry about this -- replace Day 4 with Day 3 and Day 5 with Day 4. I guess I was off one somehow.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm not sure. I was asking what PB meant when he was looking closely at Thomkal due to his win. I'm trying to connect the dots in what PB was saying is all, and hoping there's some connection that will help us narrow down the wolves.

Fair enough. It is odd I think that Thomkal has been in the thread a couple times, and not said anything about it.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

ok I guess it is time for this. I don't think I can hold off anymore. Especially since I can add 3 other people to a trusted list. I am the seer. I have looked at both Poli and MartinD/hoops and both are villagers

Here's NTN's reveal. It's obvious why NTN lived if he was just lying. But if he was telling the truth, maybe the wolves let him live because they knew he was the Fool, and his scans were wrong. Now, we know that DV scanned MartinD/hoops, and he came up good -- so he's either good or cunning. So, for the wolves to have known that NTN was the Fool, Poli's got to be a wolf.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE POLI

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 11:26 AM

Just have a short moment here before lunch to respond to posts, will try to do more so later. I can confirm I did indeed win the event bonus last time out. I cannot however reveal what the bonus is to prevent the wolves from taking action against it. I may be willing to reveal it to Hoops in Team Germany chat later on today if I feel like I can trust him. (yes yes I know he's seer cleared, but that still doesn't mean he can't be the cunning wolf)

Telle · 03-01-2010, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Here's NTN's reveal. It's obvious why NTN lived if he was just lying. But if he was telling the truth, maybe the wolves let him live because they knew he was the Fool, and his scans were wrong. Now, we know that DV scanned MartinD/hoops, and he came up good -- so he's either good or cunning. So, for the wolves to have known that NTN was the Fool, Poli's got to be a wolf.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE POLI

Wow.. hrmmm.. I'm going to have to think on this. That's a damn good theory. If Poli's a wolf then he would have known that ntndeacon was the Fool because ntn said that Poli came back as a villager. And thus they decided to not take him out because he'd add to confusion.

It's just hard for me to get over the instinct to protect Team Russia. But I suppose there's gotta be a few people on here with wolves as teammates.. no reason why it wouldn't be one of mine.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 12:02 PM

Pass, I'm not worried about Team Russia voting as a bloc - I would hope by this point in the game people are actually playing werewolf and not chasing medals. If it is 5-3, we had better get a wolf today or it is almost certainly game over. The time for messing around with secondary goals should be over by now.

I'm just working with the assumption that (no matter what the rules say to the contrary) EF would not have loaded up a team with more than one wolf. So right now I see having a 50/50 shot at getting a wolf without any team considerations (8 players, I know PB + me are good). But if there are 0-1 wolves in Russia then my chances there are either 0% or 33%. Either way, it is a lower percentage opportunity than going after a non-Russian player.

Taking that assumption to the next step, if there is one wolf on Russia then there are two wolves among the three remaining players - you + KWhit + Thomkal. Those odds are better than 50%, and that is why I'm looking in that direction.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 12:06 PM

EF - would you have accepted a conditional order from the wolves along the lines of "if the seer is lynched, then target 'player x' otherwise kill whoever is alive between Darth/NTN"?

If I had been a wolf around near the deadline, I would have put something like that in with a backup of "otherwise, kill 'player y' if the above is too complicated".

Bottom line, they had to get rid of the seer that day, whether it was Darth or NTN. But it is possible (50%?) that they did not know because Poli was not a wolf so both lists came up listing villagers.

Honestly, Pass, I do like the theory that you put together. Enough that I'm unvoting you for now.

UNVOTE PASS

EagleFan · 03-01-2010, 12:06 PM

Just wanted to clarify as I saw this questioned in a post by hoops. The selection of the teams was completely random and done first. Secondly came the selection of the roles/wolves. That was also completely random and olympic team had no affect on the roles/wolves.

EagleFan · 03-01-2010, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

EF - would you have accepted a conditional order from the wolves along the lines of "if the seer is lynched, then target 'player x' otherwise kill whoever is alive between Darth/NTN"?

If I had been a wolf around near the deadline, I would have put something like that in with a backup of "otherwise, kill 'player y' if the above is too complicated".

Bottom line, they had to get rid of the seer that day, whether it was Darth or NTN. But it is possible (50%?) that they did not know because Poli was not a wolf so both lists came up listing villagers.

Honestly, Pass, I do like the theory that you put together. Enough that I'm unvoting you for now.

UNVOTE PASS

The conditionals have to be player specific. For example: If EagleFan is alive NK him. If he has been lynched then NK Lathum.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm just working with the assumption that (no matter what the rules say to the contrary) EF would not have loaded up a team with more than one wolf.

First of all, the first sentence of your post is funny given Telle's post before it. Telle, I think it's extremely short-sighted to vote for Team Russia and against the village. Secondly (back to hoops), while you've never been one to shy away from math, rarely have I seen you so ruled by it -- your strength is more about spotting people with underlying motivations, rather than crunching some probabilities IMO (granted, you could be relying on the math more because you weren't here for the first few days, which is understandable). Thirdly, what would be the big deal about a team having more than one wolf, anyway? How would it impact the game any differently to have two or three wolves on a team vs. one wolf per team?

EagleFan · 03-01-2010, 12:14 PM

Logging back out for a while, more "fun" meeting coming up. I'll try to check back in if I can prior to leaving for the day. If not I'll be online this evening before the deadline.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Just wanted to clarify as I saw this questioned in a post by hoops. The selection of the teams was completely random and done first. Secondly came the selection of the roles/wolves. That was also completely random and olympic team had no affect on the roles/wolves.

Hoops, I'm not a fan of your theory (since it puts me in the cross-hairs), so I'm glad EF stated this definitively.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 12:24 PM

So far, the Poli scenario makes the most sense to me. I want to get in a placeholder vote since I am likely to be away from the PC for most of the rest of the day. I will likely log back in later on, but just in case:

VOTE POLI

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 12:28 PM

Pass, if there is a person on this site who plays the math more regularly than me than I have yet to meet him. That said, the math usually is a foundation for my arguments and then I look to drill through posts to validate assumptions or choose between suspects offered up by the math.

If there are multiple wolves on the same team then they have unlimited PMs to coordinate team activities, for all intents and purposes. Sure they can only exchange 3 with a non-wolf (on a two person wolf team) but they can run the numbers and then work on moving the other person to their point of view.

Knowing for sure how two people on the team are going to act is a real advantage as well. The rest of us have to assume that the people in the thread are spending their points the way they suggest they are, rather than knowing who is banking points for later rounds.

I know EF is saying that everything was random. Maybe it was, and there were not two wolves on the same team. But I expect that a moderator would have taken steps to minimize/eliminate the chances of stacking up one team with wolves in this format. Most moderators with experience running games don't rely solely on random.org to set up their games. Instead, they use it as a starting point and will make slight adjustments as needed to create competitive balance.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Day 1
1 - ntndeacon - MartinD (162)
1 - Poli - Danny (163)
3 - Darth Vilus - KWhit (166), Polis (196), CrimsonFox (213)
4 - Schmidty - Passacaglia (141), J23 (168), Autumn (199), Lathum (212)
2 - Autumn - Telle (199), ntndeacon (183)
2 - Lathum - PurdueBrad (173), Darth Vilus (184)
1 - CrimsonFox - Thomkal (181)

Day 2
4 - ntndeacon - Autumn (272), MartinD (314), Danny (319), Thomkal (367)
2 - Poli - Lathum (278), KWhit (296)
1 - CrimsonFox - Darth vilus (286)
5 - Autumn - Passacaglia (287), ntndeacon (337), PurdueBrad (354), Telle (357), Poli (362)
1 - Darth Vilus - CrimsonFox (305)
PurdueBrad duked to Lathum

Day 3
7 - Danny - PurdueBrad (464), KWhit (490), Telle (491), CrimsonFox (498), MartinD (514), ntndeacon (516), Poli (532)
5 - ntndeacon - Thomkal (466), Darth Vilus (489), Passacaglia (518), Danny (527), Autumn (537)

Here is the last voting page I've found. I haven't seen anything with votes/unvotes on it.

Day 1 - every person with multiple votes on them is a villager. Also, Pass is the only unknown still alive who voted for the leading vote getter.

Day 2 - super telling if NTN is a wolf. Thomkal is only unknown still alive who voted for NTN. Russia voted as a block to save NTN.

Day 3 - Russia again votes as a block to save NTN. Thomkal and Pass both have votes on NTN this day. I will probably try to do a vote/unvote list from Days 2-4 if I have time.

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 12:39 PM

I am not averse to voting a teammate any more. (sorry y'all) prior to my scans becoming worthless I was thinking the three wolves were Thomkal, Pass, and maybe Kwhit. I am willing to think at least one of these are not the wolf.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, if there is a person on this site who plays the math more regularly than me than I have yet to meet him. That said, the math usually is a foundation for my arguments and then I look to drill through posts to validate assumptions or choose between suspects offered up by the math.

If there are multiple wolves on the same team then they have unlimited PMs to coordinate team activities, for all intents and purposes. Sure they can only exchange 3 with a non-wolf (on a two person wolf team) but they can run the numbers and then work on moving the other person to their point of view.

Knowing for sure how two people on the team are going to act is a real advantage as well. The rest of us have to assume that the people in the thread are spending their points the way they suggest they are, rather than knowing who is banking points for later rounds.

I know EF is saying that everything was random. Maybe it was, and there were not two wolves on the same team. But I expect that a moderator would have taken steps to minimize/eliminate the chances of stacking up one team with wolves in this format. Most moderators with experience running games don't rely solely on random.org to set up their games. Instead, they use it as a starting point and will make slight adjustments as needed to create competitive balance.

I don't know. I think you're way overstating a potential benefit in having more than one wolf on a team. How would that imbalance the game? I just don't see it being as big a difference-maker as you do.

Personally, I know that Canada has NO wolves on it. How would that imbalance things vs. a team that had 1 wolf or even 2 wolves. IMO, if the moderator has said twice definitively that it was all completely random, then I believe him.

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 12:44 PM

People are talking like this is not endgame. This is the endgame. If we are wrong the game is over, with the night kill.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

People are talking like this is not endgame. This is the endgame. If we are wrong the game is over, with the night kill.

How should we be talking differently to acknowledge that?

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 12:52 PM

I am not sure. But we need to make sure we get a wolf today is what I am saying.

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 12:52 PM

Unvote Pass

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Unvote Pass

Well you're on your way now!

Although, the two unvotes are scaring me. It's like you guys are trying to lull me into a false sense of security...

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 01:01 PM

I guess it's just weird that it seems like my Poli idea was what made you unvote me. But, if that's enough to convince you to unvote me (i.e. you believe me), why not just vote Poli? I admit to being paranoid, but it seems like you're setting up to decide you don't believe it, so you can revote me later on -- while making sure I don't get any sympathy from people worried that it's a runaway on me (which it was).

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 01:05 PM

Especially given that NTN is one of the unvoters. I wonder if he and hoops are all like, "Yeah! Since NTN is, uh, the Fool, then it's Poli! Yeah!" That could all be true, and Poli could either be a wolf or not (and they're just keeping their options open), but it's creeping me out.

03-01-2010, 09:14 AM	#851
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, I know that you've said it but it is a lower percentage play than any other player outside of PB because I only have a chance of being one wolf role, where anyone else has a chance of being three wolf roles. A vote for me is a vote against math in this case 2nd part - why would I come into a game for another player and come guns blazing as a wolf when the wolves appear to be in complete control of the game? And "why would I have knowledge that I was scanned?" - assuming standard WW, no one has knowledge that they were scanned. I'm beginning to feel that you are trying harder to pick apart my statements than actually catch a wolf. Those are mutually exclusive propositions, whether you know it or not (I think you do).

03-01-2010, 09:24 AM	#853
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Pass, I'm basing this on several issues. Vote history, something about the dialogue between you and Telle pinged me (not sure why looking back), the push you've made on ntn and danny (although both would be fairly aggressive for a wolf at the time), my surprise that there wasn't a big push on you after the Danny thing and I don't have the rest of my notes in front of me but if I can get to them today, I'll add to this. For me, I'm definitely looking at: You, Thomkal, and Russia. I would not be surprised to find two to three of our wolves in that group. I still might be willing to go a different route with the above listed group.

03-01-2010, 09:41 AM	#856
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Oh hey, Telle is in the thread. Telle, do you know what conversation PB is talking about?

03-01-2010, 09:43 AM	#857
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Also, since PB and Telle are in the thread -- do you guys have any thoughts on hoops? I'll take a straw poll of the two of you. If I'm not going to get anywhere with this, I should probably look at other options. But am I making any headway here, or is it falling on deaf ears since he was scanned?

03-01-2010, 09:45 AM	#859
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Definitely understand Pass, and like I said I'm sorry that I don't have all my notes. Pass, I will say, my vote is either staying with you or moving to Thomkal. I plan on reading back through today but I have a busy day so we'll see.

03-01-2010, 09:46 AM	#860
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Pass, the scan does a lot for Hoops in my book. But also, I don't think he comes in guns blazing like he did before knowing about the scan. He gets a pass in my book as I think he is truly pro-village (and remember, I never trust the hateful jerkface).

03-01-2010, 09:52 AM	#866
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Oh! PB, do you mean the dialogue where Telle didn't want to give away the PMs from her team?

03-01-2010, 09:56 AM	#867
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Yeah Pass, that's it. Like I said, I've got to go back and read it.

03-01-2010, 10:13 AM	#870
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I believe so, I'll go back and double-check.

03-01-2010, 10:21 AM	#872
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I don't consider NTN remotely clear - he is either the villager role he claims (which could very, very easily not be in the game) or a wolf bluffing because he was on the ropes with the vote on Friday. But since he is with Russia, who has three remaining players, I'm not going to pursue that angle today.

03-01-2010, 10:28 AM	#873
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, my vote for you is on you now because you are one of the three players left who is a solo uncleared on a team. Thomkal + KWhit are the two others. Of those teams, my impression is that Team USA is the one that has had the most success this game. And, as a by-product, earning additional night benefits that could potentially go to a wolf on that team. So that is acting as my tie-breaker right now. But I'm willing to listen to strong arguments for either KWhit or Thomkal.

03-01-2010, 10:29 AM	#874
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I'm a little disconnected from some of the earlier events in thread (wasn't active player at that time) so I'm hoping others can help fill-in-blanks for me. What do we suspect was the wolf motivation with the night kills each of the four nights (3 successful, 1 no-kill)?

03-01-2010, 11:26 AM	#880
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	Just have a short moment here before lunch to respond to posts, will try to do more so later. I can confirm I did indeed win the event bonus last time out. I cannot however reveal what the bonus is to prevent the wolves from taking action against it. I may be willing to reveal it to Hoops in Team Germany chat later on today if I feel like I can trust him. (yes yes I know he's seer cleared, but that still doesn't mean he can't be the cunning wolf)

03-01-2010, 12:02 PM	#882
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, I'm not worried about Team Russia voting as a bloc - I would hope by this point in the game people are actually playing werewolf and not chasing medals. If it is 5-3, we had better get a wolf today or it is almost certainly game over. The time for messing around with secondary goals should be over by now. I'm just working with the assumption that (no matter what the rules say to the contrary) EF would not have loaded up a team with more than one wolf. So right now I see having a 50/50 shot at getting a wolf without any team considerations (8 players, I know PB + me are good). But if there are 0-1 wolves in Russia then my chances there are either 0% or 33%. Either way, it is a lower percentage opportunity than going after a non-Russian player. Taking that assumption to the next step, if there is one wolf on Russia then there are two wolves among the three remaining players - you + KWhit + Thomkal. Those odds are better than 50%, and that is why I'm looking in that direction.

03-01-2010, 12:06 PM	#883
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	EF - would you have accepted a conditional order from the wolves along the lines of "if the seer is lynched, then target 'player x' otherwise kill whoever is alive between Darth/NTN"? If I had been a wolf around near the deadline, I would have put something like that in with a backup of "otherwise, kill 'player y' if the above is too complicated". Bottom line, they had to get rid of the seer that day, whether it was Darth or NTN. But it is possible (50%?) that they did not know because Poli was not a wolf so both lists came up listing villagers. Honestly, Pass, I do like the theory that you put together. Enough that I'm unvoting you for now. UNVOTE PASS

03-01-2010, 12:06 PM	#884
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Just wanted to clarify as I saw this questioned in a post by hoops. The selection of the teams was completely random and done first. Secondly came the selection of the roles/wolves. That was also completely random and olympic team had no affect on the roles/wolves.

03-01-2010, 12:14 PM	#887
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Logging back out for a while, more "fun" meeting coming up. I'll try to check back in if I can prior to leaving for the day. If not I'll be online this evening before the deadline.

03-01-2010, 12:24 PM	#889
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	So far, the Poli scenario makes the most sense to me. I want to get in a placeholder vote since I am likely to be away from the PC for most of the rest of the day. I will likely log back in later on, but just in case: VOTE POLI

03-01-2010, 12:28 PM	#890
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, if there is a person on this site who plays the math more regularly than me than I have yet to meet him. That said, the math usually is a foundation for my arguments and then I look to drill through posts to validate assumptions or choose between suspects offered up by the math. If there are multiple wolves on the same team then they have unlimited PMs to coordinate team activities, for all intents and purposes. Sure they can only exchange 3 with a non-wolf (on a two person wolf team) but they can run the numbers and then work on moving the other person to their point of view. Knowing for sure how two people on the team are going to act is a real advantage as well. The rest of us have to assume that the people in the thread are spending their points the way they suggest they are, rather than knowing who is banking points for later rounds. I know EF is saying that everything was random. Maybe it was, and there were not two wolves on the same team. But I expect that a moderator would have taken steps to minimize/eliminate the chances of stacking up one team with wolves in this format. Most moderators with experience running games don't rely solely on random.org to set up their games. Instead, they use it as a starting point and will make slight adjustments as needed to create competitive balance.

03-01-2010, 12:39 PM	#892
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	I am not averse to voting a teammate any more. (sorry y'all) prior to my scans becoming worthless I was thinking the three wolves were Thomkal, Pass, and maybe Kwhit. I am willing to think at least one of these are not the wolf.

03-01-2010, 12:44 PM	#894
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	People are talking like this is not endgame. This is the endgame. If we are wrong the game is over, with the night kill.

03-01-2010, 12:52 PM	#896
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	I am not sure. But we need to make sure we get a wolf today is what I am saying.

03-01-2010, 12:52 PM	#897
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	Unvote Pass

03-01-2010, 01:01 PM	#899
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	I guess it's just weird that it seems like my Poli idea was what made you unvote me. But, if that's enough to convince you to unvote me (i.e. you believe me), why not just vote Poli? I admit to being paranoid, but it seems like you're setting up to decide you don't believe it, so you can revote me later on -- while making sure I don't get any sympathy from people worried that it's a runaway on me (which it was).

03-01-2010, 01:05 PM	#900
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Especially given that NTN is one of the unvoters. I wonder if he and hoops are all like, "Yeah! Since NTN is, uh, the Fool, then it's Poli! Yeah!" That could all be true, and Poli could either be a wolf or not (and they're just keeping their options open), but it's creeping me out.

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