WW 109 - Hungry for Gold (Game Over, Wolves Win, Team USA Wins) - Page 19

Telle · 03-01-2010, 01:11 PM

Well I'm not coming up with any better theories on my own, so I'm going to go along with Pass's idea..

vote Poli

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I guess it's just weird that it seems like my Poli idea was what made you unvote me. But, if that's enough to convince you to unvote me (i.e. you believe me), why not just vote Poli? I admit to being paranoid, but it seems like you're setting up to decide you don't believe it, so you can revote me later on -- while making sure I don't get any sympathy from people worried that it's a runaway on me (which it was).

I would not have any need to play that kind of game in an endgame scenario if I was a wolf. I would just push like crazy for you with every possible reason I could construct, try like hell to talk known villager PB into joining me on the vote, and call it a day.

But I'm not a wolf, so I'm trying to actually listen to what other people are saying and how they are playing the game. For better or worse, the Poli theory showed me that you are trying to actively engage with the data rather than playing defensively like I thought you were earlier. I'm much more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to players whose thought processes make sense to me. Even if I don't agree with them as optimal play.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 01:36 PM

Thomkal, I'm extremely interested in hearing from you at some point about the reward for winning yesterday. I understand that there may be some hesitation, but you only have the choice to share info with one person. And I'm the 2nd safest person in the game to share with based on data we have to evaluate (PB = demonstrated ability is 1st).

So I'm growing more concerned by the hour that you are not being forthcoming with this info. It is certainly not building any level of German solidarity

PurdueBrad · 03-01-2010, 01:38 PM

Hoops, I agree 100% with the above post. I actually just came on to move my vote, in case I have access issues later.

unvote Pass

vote Thomkal

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would not have any need to play that kind of game in an endgame scenario if I was a wolf. I would just push like crazy for you with every possible reason I could construct, try like hell to talk known villager PB into joining me on the vote, and call it a day.

But I'm not a wolf, so I'm trying to actually listen to what other people are saying and how they are playing the game. For better or worse, the Poli theory showed me that you are trying to actively engage with the data rather than playing defensively like I thought you were earlier. I'm much more inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to players whose thought processes make sense to me. Even if I don't agree with them as optimal play.

I hear ya. But of course I was playing defensively earlier. I assessed the situation this morning and saw three votes out of 8 players on me -- that's time to flip out. I felt that with that many votes on me, I needed to have a clear read on what I was up against. This might be construed as playing defensively, but I also showed why I was good this morning as well, based on the way I acted when Lathum used his Judge power.

Anyway -- so where you're at now is that you recognize that I'm trying to find wolves, therefore I'm worth keeping around, but you don't agree with my interpretation of the situation? That's cool -- now that you've wised up regarding me, where are you looking now?

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 01:47 PM

Pass, I'm not fully "wised up" on you yet but enough to pull the vote for the time being. I remain focused on you + KWhit + Thomkal for now, although over lunch I did come to the conclusion that we are really unlikely to win this game if NTN is a villager.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

over lunch I did come to the conclusion that we are really unlikely to win this game if NTN is a villager.

That's interesting. Why not?

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I guess it's just weird that it seems like my Poli idea was what made you unvote me. But, if that's enough to convince you to unvote me (i.e. you believe me), why not just vote Poli? I admit to being paranoid, but it seems like you're setting up to decide you don't believe it, so you can revote me later on -- while making sure I don't get any sympathy from people worried that it's a runaway on me (which it was).

Currently Ido think you are a possibility, Pass. But I think more likely that Thomkal is a wolf. Of course you both could be. I am trying to weigh my options. and if Ihad not a class I might have voted that way.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's interesting. Why not?

Because it is going to be really hard to get anything from the votes over the first four days. We don't have any other actions, that I know of, that are going to produce any meaningful info for us. So we pretty much would have to go 3-3 on wolves the rest of the way.

The next two night kills will be PB + me, which means it will be 50% every day mathematically. If we get a wolf today it is probably better than that, but how much? 60%?

I just figure that our odds are pretty long to win this, no matter who the wolves are. Maybe 30%. But I would cut those in half if NTN ends up being a villager because of the lack of vote record issue mentioned above.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 02:18 PM

Day 1 vote record:

Day 1 (someone feel free to color-code this for me

):
129 - PB votes Lathum. 1-0
134 - PB unvotes Lathum 0-0
140 - Lathum votes Schmidty 1-0
141 - Pass votes Schmidty 2-0
161 - Autumn votes Telle 2-1 Schmidty over Telle
162 - MartinD votes NTN 2-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN
163 - Danny votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli
164 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty 1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty
166 - KWhit votes DV 1-1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty/DV (at time of this vote there is one known villager and 3 unknowns with votes on them. Also all votes are by known villagers with exception of Pass vote)
168 - J23 votes Schmidty 2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV
169 - Telle votes Autumn 2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn (same thoughts as KWhit's earlier vote)
173 - PB votes Lathum 2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn/Lathum
181 - Thomkal votes CrimsonFox 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over cast of thousands (bizarre to see such a wide net of 1 votes an hour before deadline)
183 - NTN votes Autumn 2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Lathum/Crimson
184 - DV votes Lathum 2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson
188 - Lathum votes Schmidty 3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson
190 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty, votes Darth 2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty/DV over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson (all four top vote getters are villages, most put there by villagers)
196 - Poli votes Darth 3-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 DV over Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson
199 - Autumn unvotes Telle, votes Schmidty 3-3-2-2-1-1-1 DV/Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/crimson
212 - Lathum unvotes DV, votes Schmidty 4-2-2-2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum/DV over NTN/Poli/Crimson
213 - Crimson votes DV 4-3-2-2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over DV over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/Crimson

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Thomkal, I'm extremely interested in hearing from you at some point about the reward for winning yesterday. I understand that there may be some hesitation, but you only have the choice to share info with one person. And I'm the 2nd safest person in the game to share with based on data we have to evaluate (PB = demonstrated ability is 1st).

So I'm growing more concerned by the hour that you are not being forthcoming with this info. It is certainly not building any level of German solidarity

I've been away from the computer the past couple hours Hoops. I'm leaning towards telling you, but I just want to see how things play out a bit. I go back and forth between Poli and Pass right now as to who to vote for, while not forgetting Telle and KWhit. I like Pass's reasoning behind Poli's potential wolfhood, but Pass has been the main person to push me about the bonus I got for winning the last event. Which no doubt the wolves would love to find out about.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 02:20 PM

Dude you have got to stop feeding me this crap about you being cleared! I know it's almost your birthday and all, but seriously -- you are not cleared in anyone's book!!!

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Dude you have got to stop feeding me this crap about you being cleared! I know it's almost your birthday and all, but seriously -- you are not cleared in anyone's book!!!

This was in response to post #909.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I've been away from the computer the past couple hours Hoops. I'm leaning towards telling you, but I just want to see how things play out a bit. I go back and forth between Poli and Pass right now as to who to vote for, while not forgetting Telle and KWhit. I like Pass's reasoning behind Poli's potential wolfhood, but Pass has been the main person to push me about the bonus I got for winning the last event. Which no doubt the wolves would love to find out about.

Jesus, it's like one wolfish post after another with you guys. I feel like there's like five or six of you, you've all won a long time ago, and I'm the only villager left (oh and PB).

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Because it is going to be really hard to get anything from the votes over the first four days. We don't have any other actions, that I know of, that are going to produce any meaningful info for us. So we pretty much would have to go 3-3 on wolves the rest of the way.

The next two night kills will be PB + me, which means it will be 50% every day mathematically. If we get a wolf today it is probably better than that, but how much? 60%?

I just figure that our odds are pretty long to win this, no matter who the wolves are. Maybe 30%. But I would cut those in half if NTN ends up being a villager because of the lack of vote record issue mentioned above.

Okay, I'm trying to get through the grr.. of you calling yourself cleared and make some sense of this. So are you saying that because NTN got a lot of votes on a lot of different days, but kept living every time, that our only shot of winning is to hope he's a wolf and see what analysis we can do from that -- who tried to save him, etc?

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 02:46 PM

I'm not very optimistic about our chances in this game no matter what. But my feeling right now is that ntn and Poli are the top two players likely to be wolves. As for #3, I don't know.

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 02:55 PM

Vote Thomkal

I said earlier this was where my head was. and now Ihave the time to actually put it on the keyboard so to speak.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 03:14 PM

Pass, I'm seer scanned. How much more cleared are you getting at this point in the game?

If there was a soothsayer, I've given them a ton of options for statements by me to scan. But I'm not banking on this at all. We've had four villager roles already revealed (seer, BG, duke, and judge). I'm just trying to figure out if I buy there being five villagers with roles in this game.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 03:16 PM

Day 2 voting record:

272 - Autumn votes NTN 1-0
278 - Lathum votes Poli 1-1 NTN/Poli
286 - Darth votes Crimson 1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF
287 - Pass votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF/Autumn (first unknown vote of day)
296 - KWhit votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn (earlier said he was going to vote Poli or 'schmidty D1 voter')
305 - Crimson votes DV 2-1-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn/DV
314 - MartinD votes NTN 2-2-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (both NTN votes at this point by villagers)
317 - PB votes Poli 3-2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (2 of 3 Poli votes by known villagers, other is KWhit)
319 - Danny votes NTN 3-3-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV
337 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1 Poli/NTN over Autumn over CF/DV (hmm, interesting vote by NTN here, 64 minutes before deadline. Explained in #341, felt Autumn was targeting Russians)
344 - PB unvotes Poli 3-2-2-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV
351 - Thomkal votes J23 3-2-2-1-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV/J23 (hugely odd vote by Thomkal, going for Schmidty voters)
354 - PB votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 NTN/Autumn over Poli over CF/DV/J23
357 - Telle votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23 (country lines, but not a good vote by voting known villager instead of unknown)
362 - Poli votes Autumn 5-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23
365 - PB basically says he is duking away from Autumn
367 - Thomkal unvotes J23, votes NTN 5-4-2-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, I'm seer scanned. How much more cleared are you getting at this point in the game?

If there was a soothsayer, I've given them a ton of options for statements by me to scan. But I'm not banking on this at all. We've had four villager roles already revealed (seer, BG, duke, and judge). I'm just trying to figure out if I buy there being five villagers with roles in this game.

Well, there's PB...

Anyway, is the Fool really a villager role? I usually see him as more of a distraction to the Seer. Then again, it's still another cleared villager, which does have benefit. I have to head out soon, but I'll think about this on my drive.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 03:18 PM

Fool is a listed villager role. So it is 100% villager, even if their data is worthless.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I've been away from the computer the past couple hours Hoops. I'm leaning towards telling you, but I just want to see how things play out a bit. I go back and forth between Poli and Pass right now as to who to vote for, while not forgetting Telle and KWhit. I like Pass's reasoning behind Poli's potential wolfhood, but Pass has been the main person to push me about the bonus I got for winning the last event. Which no doubt the wolves would love to find out about.

Will do, but the longer it takes the more it feels like you are consulting with other wolves on a fake reward story. Just sharing my feelings here rather than spending PMs to do so ...

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 03:21 PM

Yeah, I don't get all of the secrecy, Thomkal.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Fool is a listed villager role. So it is 100% villager, even if their data is worthless.

Yes. But you were talking about justifying five villager roles. I assume you meant the imbalance of five "plusses" for the villagers. I'm not sure the Fool counts as a "plus" for the villagers. I can see both sides on it, but I'm not sure which is more powerful.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 03:22 PM

Gotta go. Hopefully, I'll be back online before deadline.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, there's PB...

Anyway, is the Fool really a villager role? I usually see him as more of a distraction to the Seer. Then again, it's still another cleared villager, which does have benefit. I have to head out soon, but I'll think about this on my drive.

Reading this again, it was a bad choice of words. I think my most recent post corrected this.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Gotta go. Hopefully, I'll be back online before deadline.

Me too. Should be back on in under two hours.

ntndeacon · 03-01-2010, 03:31 PM

Pass I agree that the fool is not a plus for the village except that clears the fool themselves.

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Yeah, I don't get all of the secrecy, Thomkal.

You will see the reason why, but I have now told Hoopsguy what my bonus is, so hopefully he can now understand my hesitancy in telling him in case he is indeed the cunning wolf.

With that, I will be afk for a while for dinner and such, but should be around for a while before lynch.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 04:41 PM

Checking in, I see not much is going on. I'll be back after I get to the coffeeshop to study -- unless they don't have internet, in which case I'll be back after I'm done studying!

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 04:56 PM

Got message from Thom, can understand not going public with it.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Gotta go. Hopefully, I'll be back online before deadline.

I hope so too, because otherwise I might have to feel a little guilty about this. But your play is way out of whack with your engaged villager game. I think this is my best chance of getting a wolf with the vote today.

VOTE KWHIT

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hope so too, because otherwise I might have to feel a little guilty about this. But your play is way out of whack with your engaged villager game. I think this is my best chance of getting a wolf with the vote today.

VOTE KWHIT

Whoa, dude. You dropped da bomb! I can't say I haven't thought about KWhit at all, but with all the other targets, he was pretty low on the list. Why him out of everyone?

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hope so too, because otherwise I might have to feel a little guilty about this. But your play is way out of whack with your engaged villager game. I think this is my best chance of getting a wolf with the vote today.

VOTE KWHIT

Well, you're wrong.

I don't always have the same playstyle from game to game. Some of that is intentional, some is just based on my availability.

This has been one of the games that I have had to lay back a little bit.

I'm just a vanilla villager. Your wolfdar is out of whack.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Your wolfdar is out of whack.

Dude, I told him that Friday! :P

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 05:28 PM

One thing that has been bugging me, though. Why is all of team Russia still alive? I would think that the wolves would want to keep as few villagers from being able to PM each other as possible - villagers sharing knowledge of any kind is bad for them.

It makes me feel better about voting for someone on team Russia as at least one possibility is that there are 2 wolves on that team. It would also help explain some of the block voting dynamic we've seen from them.

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I hope so too, because otherwise I might have to feel a little guilty about this. But your play is way out of whack with your engaged villager game. I think this is my best chance of getting a wolf with the vote today.

VOTE KWHIT

Also, is part of your "reasoning" (isn't funny how I used quotes around that?) still your conviction that there cannot be 2 wolves on a team, so there must be a wolf between me, Pass, and Thomkal? Because I don't think that EF could state that isn't the case more clearly.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 05:47 PM

UNVOTE POLI
VOTE NTNDEACON

I thought hoops was going to put a vote on NTN, but now that I see where his vote went, I'm going to put some heat here.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 05:47 PM

KWhit, math alone suggest that the probability of wolves being on same team = about 30%. So there is a 70% chance that he did not have to fudge the teams at all, thus making his statement and reality consistent.

Wolf 1 - assigned a team
Wolf 2 - 2/14 chance of being assigned to same team
Wolf 3 - 2/13 chance of being assigned to same team if 2 not assigned to that team, 1/13 if 1+2 on same team

But I'm glad to draw some kind of reaction out of you. I like playing with you when we're both villagers. But I haven't seen anything from you since Friday night that suggests this is the case.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

UNVOTE POLI
VOTE NTNDEACON

I thought hoops was going to put a vote on NTN, but now that I see where his vote went, I'm going to put some heat here.

I think this is probably a good vote as well, but the villagers really do need to circle the wagons around one candidate today rather than being split across multiple options. That would allow the wolves to steal it with late switches in an end-game scenario. No reason to let that happen.

I'll have some availability to discuss where we should go in the hour leading up to deadline, but won't be around the entire last hour. Hopefully there is some really good conversation the rest of the way.

Passacaglia · 03-01-2010, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think this is probably a good vote as well, but the villagers really do need to circle the wagons around one candidate today rather than being split across multiple options. That would allow the wolves to steal it with late switches in an end-game scenario. No reason to let that happen.

I'll have some availability to discuss where we should go in the hour leading up to deadline, but won't be around the entire last hour. Hopefully there is some really good conversation the rest of the way.

I'm definitely up for more discussion here. I'm not sure about my availability -- lurker's going to show up any minute, at which point she'll be using the laptop, probably for an hour or so, then we'll head home. But somewhere in there, I'll need to figure out dinner.

EagleFan · 03-01-2010, 06:09 PM

As of 941:

Thomkal 2 - PurdueBrad (904), ntndeacon (917)
Poli 2 - KWhit (889), Telle (901)
KWhit 1 - hoopsguy (932)
ntndeacon 1 - Passacaglia (938)

Poli · 03-01-2010, 06:45 PM

Just got home. Will read and catch up. Mercy I have a lot tondo

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 06:46 PM

I'm happy with a vote for either Thomkal or Poli, but I agree we need to get behind one or the other.

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 06:59 PM

KWhit, do you think Thomkal and Poli are the best choices for today or are they the ones you mention because they have two votes?

If you had no concerns about having to vote defensively who would you vote for and why?

KWhit · 03-01-2010, 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

KWhit, do you think Thomkal and Poli are the best choices for today or are they the ones you mention because they have two votes?

If you had no concerns about having to vote defensively who would you vote for and why?

Well, I was thinking the best 2 candidates were ntn and Poli, but then Thomkal has shot up my radar today.

I would most likely vote for Poli (which I did), but ntn and Thomkal are very close behind.

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 07:07 PM

I'm back in the thread now. KWhit you no longer think Ntn is a wolf like you stated above?

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 07:07 PM

Ah crossposts how I love thee. forget my question Kwhit.

Thomkal · 03-01-2010, 07:10 PM

So hoops, do you feel better about me now that I've told you my victory bonus?

hoopsguy · 03-01-2010, 07:19 PM

Thom, a little bit. Enough that I'm willing to risk not voting for you today, I suppose.

03-01-2010, 06:45 PM	#943
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	Just got home. Will read and catch up. Mercy I have a lot tondo __________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

03-01-2010, 01:11 PM	#901
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	Well I'm not coming up with any better theories on my own, so I'm going to go along with Pass's idea.. vote Poli

03-01-2010, 01:36 PM	#903
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Thomkal, I'm extremely interested in hearing from you at some point about the reward for winning yesterday. I understand that there may be some hesitation, but you only have the choice to share info with one person. And I'm the 2nd safest person in the game to share with based on data we have to evaluate (PB = demonstrated ability is 1st). So I'm growing more concerned by the hour that you are not being forthcoming with this info. It is certainly not building any level of German solidarity

03-01-2010, 01:38 PM	#904
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hoops, I agree 100% with the above post. I actually just came on to move my vote, in case I have access issues later. unvote Pass vote Thomkal

03-01-2010, 01:47 PM	#906
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, I'm not fully "wised up" on you yet but enough to pull the vote for the time being. I remain focused on you + KWhit + Thomkal for now, although over lunch I did come to the conclusion that we are really unlikely to win this game if NTN is a villager.

03-01-2010, 02:18 PM	#910
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Day 1 vote record: Day 1 (someone feel free to color-code this for me ): 129 - PB votes Lathum. 1-0 134 - PB unvotes Lathum 0-0 140 - Lathum votes Schmidty 1-0 141 - Pass votes Schmidty 2-0 161 - Autumn votes Telle 2-1 Schmidty over Telle 162 - MartinD votes NTN 2-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN 163 - Danny votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli 164 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty 1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty 166 - KWhit votes DV 1-1-1-1-1 Telle/NTN/Poli/Schmidty/DV (at time of this vote there is one known villager and 3 unknowns with votes on them. Also all votes are by known villagers with exception of Pass vote) 168 - J23 votes Schmidty 2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV 169 - Telle votes Autumn 2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn (same thoughts as KWhit's earlier vote) 173 - PB votes Lathum 2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Autumn/Lathum 181 - Thomkal votes CrimsonFox 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over cast of thousands (bizarre to see such a wide net of 1 votes an hour before deadline) 183 - NTN votes Autumn 2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Lathum/Crimson 184 - DV votes Lathum 2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty/Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson 188 - Lathum votes Schmidty 3-2-2-1-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over Telle/NTN/Poli/DV/Crimson 190 - Lathum unvotes Schmidty, votes Darth 2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty/DV over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson (all four top vote getters are villages, most put there by villagers) 196 - Poli votes Darth 3-2-2-2-1-1-1-1 DV over Autumn/Lathum/Schmidty over Telle/NTN/Poli/Crimson 199 - Autumn unvotes Telle, votes Schmidty 3-3-2-2-1-1-1 DV/Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/crimson 212 - Lathum unvotes DV, votes Schmidty 4-2-2-2-1-1-1 Schmidty over Autumn/Lathum/DV over NTN/Poli/Crimson 213 - Crimson votes DV 4-3-2-2-1-1-1-1 Schmidty over DV over Autumn/Lathum over NTN/Poli/Crimson

03-01-2010, 02:20 PM	#912
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Dude you have got to stop feeding me this crap about you being cleared! I know it's almost your birthday and all, but seriously -- you are not cleared in anyone's book!!!

03-01-2010, 02:46 PM	#916
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'm not very optimistic about our chances in this game no matter what. But my feeling right now is that ntn and Poli are the top two players likely to be wolves. As for #3, I don't know.

03-01-2010, 02:55 PM	#917
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	Vote Thomkal I said earlier this was where my head was. and now Ihave the time to actually put it on the keyboard so to speak.

03-01-2010, 03:14 PM	#918
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Pass, I'm seer scanned. How much more cleared are you getting at this point in the game? If there was a soothsayer, I've given them a ton of options for statements by me to scan. But I'm not banking on this at all. We've had four villager roles already revealed (seer, BG, duke, and judge). I'm just trying to figure out if I buy there being five villagers with roles in this game.

03-01-2010, 03:16 PM	#919
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Day 2 voting record: 272 - Autumn votes NTN 1-0 278 - Lathum votes Poli 1-1 NTN/Poli 286 - Darth votes Crimson 1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF 287 - Pass votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 NTN/Poli/CF/Autumn (first unknown vote of day) 296 - KWhit votes Poli 2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn (earlier said he was going to vote Poli or 'schmidty D1 voter') 305 - Crimson votes DV 2-1-1-1-1 Poli over NTN/CF/Autumn/DV 314 - MartinD votes NTN 2-2-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (both NTN votes at this point by villagers) 317 - PB votes Poli 3-2-1-1-1 Poli over NTN over CF/Autumn/DV (2 of 3 Poli votes by known villagers, other is KWhit) 319 - Danny votes NTN 3-3-1-1-1 Poli/NTN over CF/Autumn/DV 337 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1 Poli/NTN over Autumn over CF/DV (hmm, interesting vote by NTN here, 64 minutes before deadline. Explained in #341, felt Autumn was targeting Russians) 344 - PB unvotes Poli 3-2-2-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV 351 - Thomkal votes J23 3-2-2-1-1-1 NTN over Autumn/Poli over CF/DV/J23 (hugely odd vote by Thomkal, going for Schmidty voters) 354 - PB votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 NTN/Autumn over Poli over CF/DV/J23 357 - Telle votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23 (country lines, but not a good vote by voting known villager instead of unknown) 362 - Poli votes Autumn 5-3-2-1-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV/J23 365 - PB basically says he is duking away from Autumn 367 - Thomkal unvotes J23, votes NTN 5-4-2-1-1 Autumn over NTN over Poli over CF/DV

03-01-2010, 03:18 PM	#921
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Fool is a listed villager role. So it is 100% villager, even if their data is worthless.

03-01-2010, 03:21 PM	#923
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Yeah, I don't get all of the secrecy, Thomkal.

03-01-2010, 03:22 PM	#925
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Gotta go. Hopefully, I'll be back online before deadline.

03-01-2010, 03:31 PM	#928
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	Pass I agree that the fool is not a plus for the village except that clears the fool themselves.

03-01-2010, 04:41 PM	#930
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Checking in, I see not much is going on. I'll be back after I get to the coffeeshop to study -- unless they don't have internet, in which case I'll be back after I'm done studying!

03-01-2010, 04:56 PM	#931
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Got message from Thom, can understand not going public with it.

03-01-2010, 05:28 PM	#936
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	One thing that has been bugging me, though. Why is all of team Russia still alive? I would think that the wolves would want to keep as few villagers from being able to PM each other as possible - villagers sharing knowledge of any kind is bad for them. It makes me feel better about voting for someone on team Russia as at least one possibility is that there are 2 wolves on that team. It would also help explain some of the block voting dynamic we've seen from them.

03-01-2010, 05:47 PM	#938
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	UNVOTE POLI VOTE NTNDEACON I thought hoops was going to put a vote on NTN, but now that I see where his vote went, I'm going to put some heat here.

03-01-2010, 05:47 PM	#939
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	KWhit, math alone suggest that the probability of wolves being on same team = about 30%. So there is a 70% chance that he did not have to fudge the teams at all, thus making his statement and reality consistent. Wolf 1 - assigned a team Wolf 2 - 2/14 chance of being assigned to same team Wolf 3 - 2/13 chance of being assigned to same team if 2 not assigned to that team, 1/13 if 1+2 on same team But I'm glad to draw some kind of reaction out of you. I like playing with you when we're both villagers. But I haven't seen anything from you since Friday night that suggests this is the case.

03-01-2010, 06:09 PM	#942
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of 941: Thomkal 2 - PurdueBrad (904), ntndeacon (917) Poli 2 - KWhit (889), Telle (901) KWhit 1 - hoopsguy (932) ntndeacon 1 - Passacaglia (938)

03-01-2010, 06:46 PM	#944
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'm happy with a vote for either Thomkal or Poli, but I agree we need to get behind one or the other.

03-01-2010, 06:59 PM	#945
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	KWhit, do you think Thomkal and Poli are the best choices for today or are they the ones you mention because they have two votes? If you had no concerns about having to vote defensively who would you vote for and why?

03-01-2010, 07:07 PM	#947
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	I'm back in the thread now. KWhit you no longer think Ntn is a wolf like you stated above?

03-01-2010, 07:07 PM	#948
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	Ah crossposts how I love thee. forget my question Kwhit.

03-01-2010, 07:10 PM	#949
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	So hoops, do you feel better about me now that I've told you my victory bonus?

03-01-2010, 07:19 PM	#950
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Thom, a little bit. Enough that I'm willing to risk not voting for you today, I suppose.

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