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Old 02-07-2020, 02:24 PM   #601
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
CBB

Own spread record: 135-121, -2.25u



Today: 1-0, +1u


Illinois 1H -1', WIN
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Old 02-07-2020, 02:32 PM   #602
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
NBA:
PHI -5.5 WIN
DET +12.5 WIN
POR +10 WIN

CBB (.5u unless noted):
VCU -9 (1u) WIN
Harvard +5.5 WIN
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:42 PM   #603
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 11-7, +5.57u
Total live: 9-5, +3.78u

Today pre-match: 1-1, 0u
Today live: 0-2, -1.91u


ATP Montpellier
Monfils ML -137 v. Krajinovic, WIN
Goffin 2-0 +135 v. Pospisil, LOSS
**Live:
Goffin ML -125, LOSS

WTA St. Petersburg Qualifying
Gasparyan +240 ML for 0.66u, LOSS
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Old 02-08-2020, 08:54 AM   #604
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
CBB

Own spread record: 136-121, -1.25u



Today: 4-3, +0.7u


Michigan St. -2', LOSS
Tennessee +2', LOSS
Duquesne -4, LOSS
Northern Iowa -9, WIN
Stanford +9, WIN
Chattanooga +6', WIN
Wake Forest +10, WIN
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Old 02-08-2020, 09:09 AM   #605
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
NBA:
NO +2 WIN

CBB (.5u unless noted):
TCU +8 (1u) LOSE
Michigan +3 WIN
Pitt -2 WIN
Duquesne -4 LOSE
Drake +9 LOSE
Mercer +8.5 LOSE
Colorado -8.5 LOSE
Syracuse -9.5 LOSE
Illinois St +4 WIN
Utah St -9.5 LOSE
Oregon St +3 WIN
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Old 02-08-2020, 10:06 AM   #606
henry296
College Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
A friend of mine gave me a nice referral bonus to DraftKings so I built up a nice bankroll with all free money, so this is all risk free. I have about 280 units to play with and will try to take advantage of any other promos to get free rolls. Here is what I have today. 1 unit unless noted

UVA +7
LSU +4.5
Minnesota +6.5
Indiana -2
Pitt -2.5
Kentucky -2.5

Also went with 2 XFL for 0.5 unit
LA +6.5
Seattle +8.5

Michigan St, Gonzaga, Duke, Kansas ML parlay 0.5 free bet +307
UNC ML 1 unit free bet +250

Lost with Illinois last night -3.5
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Old 02-08-2020, 10:46 PM   #607
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 12-8, +5.57u
Total live: 9-7, +1.87u

Today pre-match: 2-4, -2.2u
Today live:


ATP Rotterdam Qualifying
Fucsovics / Kohlschreiber parlay -102, WIN

ATP Montpellier Final
Monfils -4, +200, 1/2u, WIN

WTA St. Petersburg Qualifying
Zvonareva +130 ML v. Cornet, LOSS

ATP NY Open Qualifying
McDonald / Istomin parlay, +103, LOSS

Dallas Challenger Final
Kudla ML -170 v. Rodionov, LOSS

Combo parlay for half unit, +389:
McDonald / Istomin / Kudla / Krueger, LOSS
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Old 02-09-2020, 08:13 PM   #608
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 14-12, +3.37u
Total live: 9-7, +1.87u

Today pre-match: 3-3, -1.05u
Today live: 9-5, +11.4u


ATP Buenos Aires
Cuevas -2.5, -125 v. Sonego, WIN
Ruud -140 ML v. Andujar, 1/2u, WIN
**Live:
Munar 1st set +2.5, +175 v. Monteiro, 0.6u, LOSS

ATP New York
Sandgren ML -135 v. Johnson, LOSS
**Live:
Jung / Krueger U18.5 games, -140, WIN
Soeda 1st set -2.5, +150 v. Tomic, 1/2u, WIN
Soeda to win 2nd set 6-0 or 6-1, 0.75u, net WIN 1.22u
Johnson / Sandgren 1st set O12.5 games, -135, WIN

WTA St. Petersburg
Sakkari 2-0 +110 v. Diatchenko, LOSS
**Live:
Diatchenko to win 2nd set 6-1 or 6-2, 1.75u bet, LOSS
Sakkari 2nd set ML +165, 2u bet, WIN
Sakkari / Diatchenko to win in 3 sets, 2.1u on Sakkari and 1u on Diatchenko, net WIN 6u thanks to Sakkari win, still would've been about 3u won if Diatchenko had won

ATP Rotterdam
Evans / Kohlschreiber O22.5, -120, LOSS
Dimitrov ML EVEN v. Shapovalov, WIN
**Live:
Carreno Busta to win Set 2, -1.5, +120 v. Mannarino, LOSS, PCB literally had a break point in 5 of 6 service games and couldn't break
PCB 2nd set ML +220, 0.5u, LOSS
RBA 2nd set ML -115 v. Fucsovics, WIN
RBA to win Set 3, Game 7, +150, 0.6u WIN 0.9u

WTA Hua Hin
**Live:
Paquet ML +160 v. Plipeuch, LOSS

**Live:
Kecmanovic / Ruud / Dimitrov parlay, 0.85u, +127, WIN

Tennis Futures bets:

ATP NY Open
Isner to win his quarter of draw: +135 for 1/2u, LOSS
Kecmanovic to win his quarter of draw: +400 for 1/4u, WIN
Raonic to win his quarter of draw: -125, LOSS

ATP Buenos Aires
Ruud to win tournament: +2000 for 1/4u, WIN
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:22 PM   #609
henry296
College Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
On Sunday, I had the following

Won:
Marquette -3
Wisconsin -1.5

Lost:

Wichita St +5
Bruins -1.5
Dustin Johnson Top 5 +175

So far, really good on CBB and lost every other bet.

Tonight going
Duke/FSU o148.5

Butter - any thoughts on the Karlovic Match over 26.5 +118. I figure either 2 tiebreakers or a third set and i win.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:35 PM   #610
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
NBA:
BRK +6.5 WIN
ATL +8.5 LOSE

CBB (.5u unless noted):
Florida St +8 WIN
Portland St +9 WIN
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Old 02-10-2020, 07:40 PM   #611
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Quote:
Originally Posted by henry296 View Post

Butter - any thoughts on the Karlovic Match over 26.5 +118. I figure either 2 tiebreakers or a third set and i win.

2 tiebreakers would only guarantee you 26 games. If you're thinking about this bet, I would go over 2.5 sets for +135.

Karlovic is the 2nd worst in the top 150 at returning, while the 2nd best at winning on his serve. New York is known as one of the fastest courts out there, which would seem to favor Ivo and getting to tiebreakers. But his 1st serve percentage is middle of the road. If its off at all, you may not get to any tiebreaks.

Hard match for me to handicap as neither player is in any kind of form either. Ivo is the definition of a one tool player and Thompson is the epitome of mediocre, IMO. No great weapons but doesn't usually beat himself.

Good luck no matter what you do.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:01 PM   #612
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 17-15, +2.32u
Total live: 18-12, +13.27u

Today pre-match: 2-9 -6.62u
Today live: 6-3, +4.63u



ATP New York
Edmund -3 / Nishioka -2 parlay, +111, LOSS
**Live:
Thompson 1st set -1.5, +275, 0.75u, WIN
Kwon -5.5, +115 v. Soeda, 0.75u, WIN

ATP Rotterdam
Barrere (-145) ML v. Bublik, LOSS
Auger Aliassime (+115) ML v. Struff, WIN
**Live:
Rublev / Basilashvili U19.5 games, WIN
Tsitsipas 2-0, +110 v. Hurkacz, LOSS

ATP Buenos Aires
Verdasco -3, -110 v. Martinez, PUSH Verdasco w/d
Moutet -2, -105 v. Kovalik, LOSS
Martin -2, -120 v. Bagnis, LOSS
Londero 2-0, -135 v. Horansky, LOSS
**Live:
RCB 1st set ML +200 v. Cecchinato (really took this for value as I don't think there is that much separating these 2 players), WIN
Sousa -135 ML v. Diaz Acosta, WIN
Djere ML -135 v. Cerundolo, WIN

All WTA matches for half unit.

WTA Hua Hin
Martic -6 (+200) v. Xiyu Wang, LOSS

WTA St. Petersburg
2-0 Brady (+135) vs Kuznetsova, LOSS
Vekic -6 (+115) vs Ahn, WIN
Ostapenko (-145) ML vs Cornet, This match is tomorrow
Putintseva (-150) ML vs Kudermetova, LOSS
Alexandrova 2-0 v. Kasatkina, -110, LOSS
**Live:
Brady/Kuznetsova to go 3 sets, 1.25u, LOSS
Alexandrova 3rd set -2.5, EVEN v. Kasatkina, 1u, LOSS

Edit: Bloodbath today, mitigated by live betting and limiting my betting on the WTA. I keep thinking I will learn about betting too many matches, but I didn't learn it before last night.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:39 AM   #613
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
CBB

Own spread record: 140-124, -0.55u



Today: 2-1, +0.9u


Wake Forest +2, WIN
San Diego St. -15', WIN
Syracuse 1H -2', LOSS
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:40 AM   #614
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
NBA:
WAS -3 WIN

CBB (.5u unless noted):
North Carolina -2 LOSE
Mississippi St -1 LOSE
Colorado St +2 LOSE
Kentucky -11.5 WIN
Syracuse -5 LOSE
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Old 02-12-2020, 08:21 AM   #615
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 19-24, -4.3u
Total live: 24-15, +17.9u

Today pre-match: 3-0, +3.78u
Today live: 6-2, +4.46u


ATP Rotterdam
Evans ML +140 v. Khachanov, WIN
**Live:
Haase 1st set, -2.5, -110, WIN
Carreno Busta ML +275 v. Bautista Agut, 1/2u, bet 1/4u on RBA in 3rd set tiebreak at +225 to get the freeroll... net WIN of 1.13u
Monfils / Sousa U20.5 games, -105, WIN
Pospisil 2nd set ML +165 v. Medvedev, WIN

ATP New York
Seppi ML +135 v. Johnson, WIN 1.3u (hedged at Johnson +2000 for 0.05u)
**Live:
Kecmanovic 2-0 v. Lorenzi, -140, WIN
Raonic 2-0, -125 v. Kwon, LOSS

ATP Buenos Aires
Ruud / Lajovic parlay, +108, WIN

WTA St. Petersburg
Bencic / Kuznetsova 2nd set O10.5 games, +110, 0.56u, LOSS
Rybakina 2nd set -1.5, -125 v. Ferro, 0.5u, WIN
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Old 02-12-2020, 11:40 AM   #616
Arles
Grey Dog Software
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
Betting the XFL looks like it will be a crapshoot. I was just reading the rules. Basically, you could have a team at +8.5 on the game, the game tied and 10 seconds left - and still lose. The opponent could score, go for 3 from 10 and win by 9 - yikes!
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Old 02-12-2020, 02:49 PM   #617
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
NBA:
ATL -2 LOSE
ORL -7 LOSE
DAL -8.5 WIN

CBB (.5u unless noted):
Auburn -8 LOSE
E. Carolina +10.5 LOSE
Loyola Chicago -8.5 LOSE
Florida -5.5 WIN
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Old 02-12-2020, 07:39 PM   #618
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Just scorching hot on live betting right now. Even won a WTA live bet on Wednesday.
Also hit all 3 pre match bets on Wed., thanks to not trying to force a bunch.

Tennis
Total pre-match: 22-24, -0.52u
Total live: 30-17, +22.36u

Today pre-match: 2-4, -2.50u
Today live: 4-3, +2.05u


ATP Rotterdam
Pospisil ML -125 v. Krajinovic, LOSS

ATP Buenos Aires
Cuevas / Ramos O22, -125, WIN
**Live:
Londero to win final set 6-1 v. Djere, +220, 0.5u, WIN
Schwartzman to win U12.5 games v. Delbonis, -125 LOSS

ATP New York
Jung ML EVEN v. Norrie, WIN
Isner 2-0 +125 v. Thompson, LOSS
**Live:
Edmund / Koepfer U21.5 games, -125, WIN
Doubles: Cacic/Nys to win U8.5 games v. Monroe/Sock, -125, WIN

WTA St. Petersburg LIVE
Kvitova to win final set 6-3 or 6-4, 0.75u, LOSS
Vekic / Alexandrova 2nd set O10.5 games, +150, 1u, WIN

ITF Naples LIVE
Hernandez-Fernandez ML -110 v. Zhu, 0.5u, LOSS

Rolling in my bet on Raonic to win his quarter of the draw LOSS into today's record.
Also rolling in the loss on Isner to win his quarter of the draw into today's record.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:14 AM   #619
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
CBB

Own spread record: 142-125, +0.35u



Today:


6 point teaser, +125
FGCU -0.5 / Cincinnati -1 / Cal St. Bakersfield -15', LOSS
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:04 PM   #620
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
CBB (.5u unless noted):
La Tech -10 (1u) LOSE
Colorado +5 LOSE
Cincinnati -7 LOSE
BYU -11.5 WIN
Oregon St -5 WIN
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Old 02-14-2020, 06:35 AM   #621
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 24-28, -3.02u
Total live: 34-20, +24.41u

Today pre-match: 3-3, +1.7u
Today live: 7-9, -2.92u


ATP New York
Kecmanovic +110 v. Humbert, 2u, WIN
**Live:
Humbert to win 1st set 6-3, -188, for 1/2u, WIN
Edmund ML EVEN v. Kwon, WIN
Jung to win Set 3 6-4, EVEN, WIN
Thompson ML -125 v. Seppi, 1/2u, LOSS

ATP Buenos Aires
Londero / Pella O22.5 games, -125, WIN
**Live:
Ruud / Lajovic O19.5 games, -150, LOSS

ATP Rotterdam
Rublev -4, +115 v. Krajinovic, LOSS
**Live:
Carreno Busta 2nd set ML -125 v. Sinner, LOSS
Carreno Busta total games won U15.5, -120, LOSS
Monfils 1st set ML -150 v. Evans, WIN
Monfils / Evans 2nd set U7.5 games, +110, 1/2u, another 1/2u at +300, LOSS
Rublev ML EVEN v. Krajinovic, LOSS

All women's tennis for half unit.

WTA Hua Hin LIVE
Hibino / Svitolina 3rd set O7.5 games, -138, for 1u WIN
Svitolina to win final set, +900, 0.25u, LOSS

WTA St. Petersburg
Alexandrova ML +150 v. Kvitova, PUSH, Kvitova w/d
Potapova ML +340 v. Bertens, LOSS
**Live:
Bencic / Sakkari, Total games in Set 2 U9.5, -138, LOSS
Total games in Set 2 O12.5, +175, 1u, LOSS
Sakkari ML +110, 1u, WIN

WTA
Zheng / Rybakina parlay, +108, 1u bet LOSS

Cleveland Challenger LIVE
Kudla 1st set ML -110 v. Escobedo, WIN

Adding in WIN of bet on Kecmanovic to win his quarter of draw at NY Open to today's record.
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:07 PM   #622
kingfc22
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Morgan Hill, CA
CBB (.5u unless noted):
Akron -3.5
Princeton +4
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:09 PM   #623
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 27-31, -1.32u
Total live: 41-29, +21.49u

Today pre-match: 1-3, -1.45u
Today live:


Half unit for ladies' tennis.

WTA Dubai Qualifying
Ajla Tomljanovic -1.5 sets (-190) vs Bethanie Mattek Sands, LOSS
Kristyna Pliskova ML (+200) vs Jennifer Brady, LOSS
Katerina Siniakova ML (-115) vs SaiSai Zheng, WIN

WTA St. Petersburg
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+120) ML vs Kiki Bertens, LOSS
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Old 02-16-2020, 07:44 AM   #624
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 28-34, -2.77u
Total live: 41-29, +21.49u

Today pre-match: 1-1, +4.5u
Today live: 3-1, +2.55u


ATP Marseille Qualifying LIVE
Novak to win 2nd set 6-3, -138, WIN

ATP Buenos Aires
Perfect hedging scenario as I have Ruud to win the tournament for 5 units on an outlay of 0.25 units vs. Lucky Loser Pedro Sousa who is a +450 underdog. Putting in 1/2 unit on Sousa to win 2.25 u. So I will either profit 2 units or 4.5 units based on outcome.

WTA St. Petersburg LIVE
Bertens to win Set 1 6-1, +210, 1/2u, WIN
Bertens / Rybakina total games U15.5, +110, 1/2u, LOSS

ATP Rotterdam LIVE
Monfils to win Set 1 6-2, EVEN, WIN
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:02 AM   #625
henry296
College Starter
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Curious in everyone’s thoughts. Last night I made an in game bet on Houston over SMU +175. During OT I could have bet SMU at +114 and locked in about 0.2 of a unit. Should I lock in profits whenever possible or depending on my thoughts on the game take my chances on the bigger pay day. Right now my bets are pretty small so it wouldn’t be a ton of money.
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:43 AM   #626
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
I used to hedge more often, but I've found the problem with hedging is it eats into your profits. It really depends on your risk tolerance. I tend to do it on larger dogs, or larger bet sizing.
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:14 AM   #627
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by henry296 View Post
Curious in everyone’s thoughts. Last night I made an in game bet on Houston over SMU +175. During OT I could have bet SMU at +114 and locked in about 0.2 of a unit. Should I lock in profits whenever possible or depending on my thoughts on the game take my chances on the bigger pay day. Right now my bets are pretty small so it wouldn’t be a ton of money.

In this instance I wouldn't. You start hedging in these spots and it gets very convoluted. The caveat of course if how much does the money mean to you.

I bet a lot of futures and thats where I like to hedge. For example last year When the Indians were 8 games back I bet a dime on them at 8-1 to win the division. They went on a run and pulled even with Minnesota. At that point Minn was 3-1 to win the division so I bet $1500 on them, locking in a nice profit.

The other good hedge spot is if you do multi team parlays. So for example lets say you do a 4 teamer at 10-1. I like to do this and put one late game on. That way if I hit the first 3 legs I can bet the opposite side on the last one and lock in a profit of at least 2-3 units.

One other reason to hedge in a single game scenario is to buy your way out of a bet, if someone gets injured or such.
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Old 02-16-2020, 09:16 AM   #628
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
dola- here is what I will say about in gaming. While I don't really hedge I very much look to middle a game. This is pretty easy to do in hoops, especially NBA. Lets say you took the over 227 in a game and the first quarter they put up 68. The in game total will likely sit around 238 or so.this is a great spot to take the in game under and give yourself a shot at an 11 point middle.
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Old 02-16-2020, 06:03 PM   #629
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 29-35, +1.73u
Total live: 44-30, +24.04u

Today pre-match: 2-9, -3.5u
Today live: 4-6, -1.25u


As always only a half unit on women's tennis. After today and for the last week, going 3-14-1 in pre-match on WTA, gotta re-think that strategy. Or fade myself. We'll see. May just do some data gathering and just try to get better. Or throw up my hands and say it's too high variance to bet on at all.

WTA Dubai Qualifying
Van Uytvanck ML -120 v. Siniakova, LOSS, van Uytvanck had 4 match points at 5-3 and 5-4
Hercog ML +110 v. Mladenovic, LOSS

WTA Dubai
Riske ML -130 v. Jabeur, LOSS
Mertens / Wang O21 games, -120, LOSS
**Live:
Clijsters / Muguruza O16.5 games, +110, WIN

ATP Delray Beach
Mannarino ML +115 v. Kwon, LOSS
Vesely ML -125 v. Nakashima, LOSS
**Live:
Harrison / Dzumhur 1st set U8.5 games, +300, 1/2u, LOSS
Uchiyama 2nd set ML +110, LOSS

ATP Rio de Janeiro
Coria ML +150 v. Moutet, WIN
**Live:
Garin 1st set ML EVEN v. Martin, LOSS
Garin ML EVEN, WIN
Ramos to win 2-0 v. Alcaraz, -120, LOSS
Ramos / Alcaraz Set 2 O9.5 games, +162, 1.15u bet, WIN

ATP Marseille Qualifying
Ivashka ML +110 v. Popyrin, WIN

ATP Marseille
Barrere ML +130 v. Paire, LOSS
**Live:
Ymer / Gasquet U17.5 games, EVEN, LOSS
Gasquet ML +125, LOSS

Morelos Challenger LIVE
Mansouri -3.5, -110 v. Hernandez-Fernandez, WIN

Futures 1/4u each
For Marseille to win tournament:
Fucsovics +2800, LOSS
Pospisil +2500, LOSS

For Delray Beach to win tournament:
Mannarino +2200, LOSS
Kecmanovic +2000, LOSS
Humbert +1800
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:16 PM   #630
Lathum
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Location: homeless in NJ
I ended up taking LeBron MVP at +450, 1st quarter over 86.5 and game over 305.5
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Old 02-16-2020, 08:56 PM   #631
Butter
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Took 1Q Over, Giannis -1' 2nd Q, and put both of those winnings on LeBron full game at EVEN.
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Old 02-16-2020, 10:36 PM   #632
Lathum
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So not only did I lose the 2nd quarter by the hook. I had the in game over 312.5. When it was 156-155 literally the only way I lose is on a walk off free throw. Sums up my gambling life.
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Old 02-18-2020, 06:37 AM   #633
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Total pre-match: 31-44, -1.77u
Total live: 48-36, +22.79u

Today pre-match: 1-1, -0.25u
Today live: 9-3, +5.01u


ATP Delray Beach
Kecmanovic -3, -110 v. Thompson, PUSH, Thompson retires after losing 1st set 6-2
**Live:
Stebe / Tomic U18.5 games, -125, LOSS
Jung ML EVEN v. Rubin, PUSH, Jung retires
Sock 2nd set ML EVEN v. Albot, WIN

ATP Rio
Londero -125 ML v. Coric, LOSS
Pella / Monteiro O22.5 games, -110, WIN
**Live:
Lajovic 1st set ML -110 v. Cecchinato, WIN
Mayer / Sonego, 1.5 total units bet split on each player to win in 3 sets, 1.05 or 1.2 unit win depending on match winner, net WIN 1.2u
Ruud / Mager O32.5 games, -120, LOSS

ATP Marseille
LIVE:
Pospisil -1.5, -138 v. Ruusuvuori, WIN

WTA Dubai LIVE
Martic / Hsieh 1st set U10.5 games, +150, WIN
Kenin to win set 1 6-4, +105, LOSS
Martic 2nd set ML +105, WIN
Kontaveit to win 1st set 6-0 (+200) or 6-1 (+275) v. Cirstea, 1u total bet, net WIN 0.88u
Sakkari 2nd set ML +120 v. Sabalenka, WIN

Live men's parlay:
Humbert / Raonic / Simon / S. Johnson +110, was able to hedge this at 0.1u for +1200, so a profit of either 1 unit on the original bet, or 0.2 units if Humbert loses., WIN 1u
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Old 02-18-2020, 07:04 AM   #634
Lathum
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Had Hamlin at 10-1 in Daytona. Worst I have ever felt about a win
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Old 02-18-2020, 08:46 AM   #635
jbergey22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Had Hamlin at 10-1 in Daytona. Worst I have ever felt about a win

Newman was 1 of the 5 I had. 23-1 odds. Back when Earnhardt died on the track I had him as well in a small wager. I think Im done betting nascar. I was feeling guilty for about 3 hours last night until I saw Newman was going to be ok.

I seriously thought he was a goner. It was so eerie and how the broadcast ended was just like the Earnhardt crash with little information given.
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:57 AM   #636
Butter
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WARNING: Nerd stuff below.

2 weeks of heavy tennis betting. Of course only made possible by a light workload where I can do some work and also pay pretty close attention to scoring. This time of year with numerous tournaments is when I really started paying attention last year.

There is a clear difference in variance between men's and women's tennis, anybody who bets it can tell you that. The real key in women's tennis is figuring out just when the momentum shifts, and getting a bet in at that time. You're going to miss some, but getting most of your bets in at plus money is a key, because it means 50/50 will be profitable. But trying to bet the "best" player at good odds is a strategy that has proven unworkable early for me. Still figuring that out.

Men's tennis is a bit easier, because players tend to play, as they say "to the back of their baseball card". Makes live betting a bit easier. What I have been trying to do lately is watching out for players who I fancy who are -170 to -200 favorites or so. Watch the start of their match. If their opponent serves first, grab either set 1 or match odds after the opponent wins game 1. Live odds fluctuate pretty dramatically, giving a drop of 40-50 basis points based on just a single game, and it can drop the odds right into the comfort zone of more like -125 or so.

How it is going so far, I thought I would break it down here and going forward into some clearer categories. Women's pre-match betting NEEDS SOME WORK.

2 week tennis betting summary:

Men
Pre-match: 28-25, +2.98u, 52.8%
Live: 40-24, +18.53u, 62.5%

Women
Pre-match: 3-15, -8.02u, 16.7%
Live: 17-15, +10.39u, 53.1%

Futures
Men: 2-4, +3.25u, 33.3%

Grand total: 90-83, +27.13u, 52.0%


Will re-state results this way in future. Also have decided that I won't count hedges as losses, those are bets to guarantee a win, it just reduces the net win amount.

The women's live betting is buoyed pretty hard by a single match. Got Maria Sakkari last week coming back in a match against an inferior player. Won over 9 units on 2 bets in that one match. That was great, but also risky as I had about 5 units on the line there.
Otherwise, live betting women's tennis has been about a .500 affair with a single unit profit.

Right now, my unit sizing on tennis is 20 bucks. Trying to stick close to it. This means I'm up over $500 in 2 weeks. Probably going to increase women's live betting to 1 unit, while keeping any pre-match bets I am stupid enough to make on WTA to a half unit. Men's bets remain at 1u unless noted.

If you're still here, today's bets:

Tennis
Men's pre-match: 28-25, +2.98u, Live: 40-24, +18.53u
Women's pre-match: 3-15, -8.02u, Live: 17-15, +10.39u
Futures: 2-4, +3.25u

Today:
M PM: 2-4, -2.18u
M Live: 3-1, +2.35u
W Live: 2-2, +0.4u


ATP Delray Beach
Kwon 2-0 v. Harrison, -110, LOSS

ATP Rio
Garin / Andujar parlay, +130, LOSS
1/2 unit on all of the below:
Monteiro / Balazs O22 games, -110, WIN
Martinez / Andujar O22, -105, LOSS
Delbonis / Garin O22, -110, LOSS
Alcaraz / Coria O22, -120, WIN

ATP Marseille LIVE
Gerasimov total games won U13.5 games, +110, WIN
Travaglia set 2 ML EVEN v. Auger-Aliassime, LOSS, lost tiebreak after being up 6-4
Bublik 3rd set -1.5, +125 v. Paire, WIN

WTA Dubai LIVE
Brady / Vondrousova final set U8.5 games, +110, WIN
Mertens / Sabalenka O22.5 games, -120, LOSS
Jabeur to win Set 1 6-1 v. Halep, -150, WIN
Jabeur 1st player to win 5 games, final set, +450, 1/2u, LOSS

Challenger Bergamo, Italy LIVE
Marcora 1st set -1.5, -150, v. Zeppieri, WIN

Finally, this Rio clay court tournament has been nuts. 13 of 16 main draw matches have gotten to 22 games or more. If you bet game overs, that's usually the range where they start. Even Thiem, the "best clay court player in the world" after Nadal, went to 3 sets against some local qualifier yesterday. Thiem did tweak his knee early 2nd set which contributed to that. But I'm putting a half unit on all the game overs there today... Not because "what has previously happened is guaranteed to continue to happen" or some other fallacy... but all of these clay players are just very close in skill. Not much separating any of these guys. There was one match 2 days ago at Rio that was a 3-setter that went 4 hours. Long points, long matches.
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Old 02-19-2020, 07:28 AM   #637
Lathum
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Thinking of taking a shot at Kentucky at 22-1 to win the tournament
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Old 02-19-2020, 08:52 AM   #638
Butter
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Location: Dayton, OH
CBB

Own spread record: 142-126, -0.65u



Today: 0-3, -3.5u


Wake Forest ML -130, LOSS
BC / UVa U114.5, LOSS
Minnesota -5', LOSS

Edit: Looks like I'm just following people from here on out
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:23 AM   #639
henry296
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Location: Pittsburgh, PA
I'm having a little bit of success with CBB focused on underdogs who are in close games, say under 10 minutes to go with a ML bet to win. Last night I got St. Joes when they were down 1 with about 3 minutes to go at +235 and won with Georgetown on Saturday at +300. I ended up losing those same bets on Houston and Ole Miss last weekend, but both were near misses at +160 and +175. Small sample but a 76% ROI.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:27 AM   #640
Marc Vaughan
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Location: Melbourne, FL
Not US sports based - but if you can get decent odds consider placing on Leeds to get promoted, their run in is incredibly light in comparison to most teams, they've played nearly all of their promotion rivals away from home already and sit nicely in second place already.

The pundits are expecting a collapse BECAUSE they've played these tough games up front and thus 'stuttered' a little, but I reckon they're a safe bet.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:52 AM   #641
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan View Post
Not US sports based - but if you can get decent odds consider placing on Leeds to get promoted, their run in is incredibly light in comparison to most teams, they've played nearly all of their promotion rivals away from home already and sit nicely in second place already.

The pundits are expecting a collapse BECAUSE they've played these tough games up front and thus 'stuttered' a little, but I reckon they're a safe bet.

+120, second favorite behind West Brom
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Old 02-19-2020, 11:18 AM   #642
Lathum
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22-1 was gone but I got them UK at 18-1 to win it all.
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Old 02-19-2020, 09:06 PM   #643
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 30-29, +0.8u, Live: 43-25, +20.88u
Women's pre-match: 3-15, -8.02u, Live: 19-17, +10.79u
Futures: 2-4, +3.25u

Today:
M PM: 2-2, -1u
M Live: 2-6, -3.3u
W PM: 1-1, +0.55u
W Live: 2-2, +2.27u
Futures: 0-1, -0.25u


ATP Delray Beach
Paul ML -115 v. Tiafoe, LOSS
Kecmanovic ML -140 v. Humbert, LOSS
**Live:
Raonic -3.5, -138 v. Stebe, WIN

ATP Rio
Thiem / Munar O20.5 games, -105, WIN
**Live:
Lajovic ML +105 v. Sonego, LOSS
Domingues Set 2 ML +125 v. Mager, LOSS

ATP Marseille
Auger-Aliassime ML +105 v. Herbert, WIN
**Live:
Simon to win 2nd set 6-4, +120 v. Bedene, WIN
Cilic 1st set ML +650, 1/2u, LOSS
Shapovalov 2nd set ML EVEN, LOSS
Sinner to win 1st set 6-3, +120, v. Medvedev LOSS
Sinner 2nd set ML +200, LOSS

WTA Dubai
Muguruza 1st set -1.5, -110 v. Brady, LOSS
Halep ML +110 v. Sabalenka, 1u, WIN
**Live:
Muguruza Set 1 ML +137, WIN
Muguruza to win race to 5 games, final set, +333, 1/2u, LOSS
Muguruza / Brady final set O12.5 games, +110, LOSS
Hsieh/Strycova to win 2nd set 6-0, +240 v. Kenin/Mattek-Sands, WIN

Futures loss, Kecmanovic loses at Delray Beach.
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Old 02-20-2020, 09:29 PM   #644
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 32-31, -0.2u, Live: 45-31, +17.58u
Women's pre-match: 4-16, -7.47u, Live: 21-19, +13.06u
Futures: 2-5, +3u

Today:
M PM: 0-2, -2.3u
M Live: 1-0, +1u
W PM: 1-0, +1u
W Live: 1-1, +1u
Futures: 0-1, -0.25u


ATP Delray Beach
Bryan/Bryan 2-0, -120 v. Sharan/Sitak, LOSS

ATP Rio
Coric / Sonego O22.5, -110, LOSS
**Live:
Coria / Garin O21.5, -120, WIN

WTA Dubai
Rybakina ML -135 v. Martic, WIN
**Live:
Martic / Rybakina 2nd set U8.5 games, +110, LOSS

WTA Doha Qualifying LIVE
Gracheva 2nd set ML +200 v. Cepelova, WIN

Futures loss, Pospisil loses at Marseille
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Old 02-21-2020, 10:26 PM   #645
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 32-33, -2.5u, Live: 46-31, +18.58u
Women's pre-match: 5-16, -6.47u, Live: 22-20, +14.06u
Futures: 2-6, +2.75u

Today:
M PM: 1-2, -1.65u
Futures: 0-1, -0.25u


ATP Delray Beach
Humbert -130 ML v. Nishioka, LOSS

ATP Rio
Garin / Coric O22.5, -135, LOSS
Mager / Balazs O22, -125, WIN
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Old 02-22-2020, 07:49 AM   #646
Lathum
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Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Sports betting can be such a roller coaster.

I had 2 player props yesterday. Anthony Davis to go over 39.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists and Zion to go over 35.5 the same. Davis rolls his ankle 30 seconds into the game and looks like he won't be back. Comes back with about 3 minutes left in the half and miraculously goes over. Zion hits the half with 21 points, 3 boards, and an assist and in a game that goes for 243 points does nothing in the second half and goes under.
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:20 AM   #647
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 33-35, -4.15u, Live: 46-31, +18.58u
Women's pre-match: 5-16, -6.47u, Live: 22-20, +14.06u
Futures: 2-6, +2.75u

This weekend:
M PM: 7-2, +3u
W PM: 0-2, -2.15u
W Live: 0-1, -0.63u


ATP Delray Beach
Placed 1u bets on each of the following: Opelka -1, +200 and Raonic -3, +180, Opelka bet WINS, net 1u

ATP Rio
Mager / Garin O21, -110, WIN

ATP Marseille
Auger-Aliassime +205 v. Tsitsipas, LOSS

WTA Doha
Alexandrova ML -140 v. Anisimova, 1u, LOSS
Siniakova ML +115 v. Jabeur, 0.75u, LOSS
LIVE: Hsieh -135 v. Zvonareva, 1/2u, LOSS

ATP Dubai
Parlay: Monfils / Rublev / Kohlschreiber, -125, WIN
Kukushkin +195 ML v. Khachanov, LOSS

ATP Santiago
Cecchinato / Dellien O22, -105, 1/2u, WIN
Seyboth Wild / Bagnis O22, -125, 1/2u, WIN
Carballes Baena / Munar O22, -110, 1/2u, WIN
Barrios Vera / Taberner O21.5, -120, WIN
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Old 02-25-2020, 08:01 AM   #648
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 40-37, -1.15u, Live: 46-31, +18.58u
Women's pre-match: 5-18, -8.62u, Live: 22-21, +13.43u
Futures: 2-6, +2.75u

Today:
M PM: 4-7, -3.55u
M Live: 1-3, -2.54u
W Live: 5-4, +2.13u


ATP Dubai
Berankis +130 ML v. Basilashvili, LOSS
**Live:
Fognini to win set 1 6-1 v. Evans, +150, LOSS
Fognini to win set 1 6-3 v. Evans, -110, WIN
Nishioka ML -134 v. Herbert, LOSS
Bautista-Agut Set 1 -1.5, -120 v. Struff, LOSS up a break TWICE and ends up not being able to cover.

ATP Acapulco
Lajovic +110 ML v. Johnson, WIN

ATP Santiago
Martin ML -115 v. Davidovich Fokina, LOSS
Martin / Davidovich Fokina O22, -110, WIN
Olivo / Sousa O22, -110, WIN
Monteiro / Mayer O23, -120, WIN
Horansky / Varillas O22, -110, LOSS
Kovalik / Caruso O22, -110, LOSS
Coria / Londero O21.5, -115, LOSS
Lorenzi / Tabilo O22, -110, LOSS
Delbonis / Klizan O22.5, -105, LOSS

WTA Doha LIVE
Ostapenko / Strycova Set 2 U9.5 games, +110, WIN
Kvitova 1st set ML +300 v. Suarez Navarro, 1/2u, LOSS
Kenin to win 2-0 v. Yastremska, +225, LOSS
Kvitova / Suarez Navarro 2nd set U7.5 games, +120, LOSS
Yastremska 2nd set ML +105, WIN
Putintseva / Mertens, opposing ML bets at +333 for 1u on Putintseva and +120 for 1.75u on Mertens, WIN net 1.58u
Bencic / Rybakina parlay +110, WIN
Jabeur / Brady O21.5, -125, LOSS
Sakkari ML +105 v. Martincova, WIN
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Old 02-26-2020, 06:28 AM   #649
Butter
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Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 44-44, -4.7u, Live: 47-34, +16.04u
Women's pre-match: 5-18, -8.62u, Live: 27-25, +15.57u
Futures: 2-6, +2.75u

Today:
M PM: 1-1, +0.08u
M Live: 6-6, +0.87u
W Live: 4-3, +1.55u
Futures: 0-2, -0.75u


ATP Dubai
Struff 2-0 v. Basilashvili, +115, WIN
**Live:
Zverev / Krajinovic 1st set O10.5 games, +137, WIN
Bublik / Tsitsipas 1st set U10.5 games, +125, LOSS
Khachanov Set 2 -1.5, -138 v. Novak, WIN

ATP Santiago
Ramos Vinolas / Ruud / Cuevas parlay, -107, LOSS
**Live:
Delbonis / Caruso O22.5 games, -120, LOSS

WTA Doha LIVE
Kvitova to win Set 3 6-0 or 6-1, +200 / +225, WIN net 1.25u
Bertens Set 1 ML -134 v. Zheng, WIN
Zheng Set 3 ML +105, WIN
Sakkari / Sabalenka 2nd set O7.5 games, -125, LOSS
Pliskova to win 2nd set 6-1 or 6-2, 1/2u each v. Jabeur, LOSS
Jabeur ML +150, WIN

Challenger, Pau, France, LIVE
Vesely 1st set ML -125 v. Bourgue, WIN

Mixed parlay: Stebe 2nd set ML (playing at Columbus Challenger) / Vesely 1st set ML +168, WIN

ATP Acapulco LIVE
Isner 2-0, -130 v. Giron, WIN
Zverev 2-0, -138 v. Paul, LOSS
Paul / Zverev 1st set U8.5 games, LOSS
Zverev ML -150, LOSS
Paul to win final set 6-4, +200, WIN

WTA Acapulco LIVE
Wang 2nd set ML +110 v. Errani, LOSS

Challenger Calgary LIVE
Pospisil to win U12.5 games, -110, v. Zuk, LOSS

Futures
ATP Acapulco:
Dimitrov +1200 for 1/4u
Humbert +5000 for 1/4u, LOSS

ATP Santiago:
Ramos +1000 for 1/2u
Cuevas +700 for 1/2u, LOSS
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Old 02-27-2020, 06:27 AM   #650
Butter
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
Tennis
Men's pre-match: 45-45, -4.62u, Live: 53-40, +16.91u
Women's pre-match: 5-18, -8.62u, Live: 31-28, +17.12u
Futures: 2-8, +2u

Today:
M PM: 0-2, -2u
M Live: 1-1, -0.63u
W PM: 0-2, -2.3u
W Live: 5-0, +7.44u


ATP Dubai
Struff ML +210 v. Tsitsipas, LOSS
**Live:
Evans to win U12.5 games v. Rublev, -163, LOSS

WTA Doha
Sabalenka to break serve first v. Zheng, -130, LOSS
Jabeur ML +200 v. Kvitova, LOSS
**Live:
Sabalenka -0.5, +110, WIN
Jabeur +2.5, +162, WIN
Muguruza 2nd set ML +110 v. Barty, WIN

ATP Santiago
Monteiro / Carballes Baena O22.5, EVEN, LOSS

ATP Acapulco LIVE
Fritz 2nd set ML -106 v. Edmund, WIN

WTA Acapulco LIVE
Zarazua 1st set -2.5, +137 v. Zidansek, WIN
Zarazua 3rd set 6-3 (1/2u @ +800) or 6-2 (1u @ +275), net WIN 2.25u
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