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Old 02-10-2020, 09:46 AM   #51
desertrats2
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I've made a little bit of research compiling passing data over a 40-season span from real NFL and 8.2/8.3 versions.
I'll analyze Att/Game, % Completed, Yards/Game, Yards/Catch, Yards/Attempt, TD %, Int %, TD-Int ratio and QB Rating.


METHODOLOGY

Compiled passing data from:

- Real NFL (1980-2019)
- 8.2 (40 seasons in a row)
- 8.3 (40 seasons in a row)

Then I divided real NFL seasons in 8 groups of 5 seasons each (1980-84, 1985-89 and so on), trying to reflect changes in the approach to the game over time.

Didn't do the same with FOF8 versions as background is static and standard deviations are 4 to 5 times less significant than in real NFL across history.

So we have 120 seasons to have a look over.


RESULTS


1. Differences between 8.2 and 8.3 versions (80 total seasons)


- Attempts/Game: 8.2: 35,8; 8.3: 36,3 (+0,5)

QBs throw more in 8.3. About 0.5 attempts more per game. The best 19 seasons att/gm-wise were run on 8.3. Only 3 of the last 20 were run on 8.3.


- % Completions: 8.2: 62,87%; 8.3: 60,87% (-2%)

QBs are consistently less accurate on 8.3. The best 8.3 season ranks 28th over 80 total and has a lower completion percentage than the average on version 8.2. (62,56%). The worst 30 seasons were run on 8.3.


- Yards/Game: 8.2: 241,7; 8.3: 231,4 (-10,3)

Although this stat does not weigh in QB Rating, it is clear that QBs throw less yards in 8.3. The best 8.3 season ranks 29th now, and again, the worst 30 seasons are 8.3 related.


- Yards/Catch: 8.2: 10,75; 8.3: 10,47 (-0,28)

Not one of the biggest differences, but again, the best 8.3 season ranks only 26th, and the worst 30 belong to 8.3 aswell.


- Yards/Attempt: 8.2: 6,76; 8.3: 6,37 (-0,39)

It is almost a 6% drop, which is a lot. Only two 8.2 seasons are worst than the best season run on 8.3, and just by a mere 0,02.


- TD %: 8.2: 3,81%; 8.3: 3,39% (-0,42%)

Quite a big difference here again. The secuence repeats over and over, and this time the best ranked 8.2 season comes in 32nd place.


- Int %: 8.2: 2,30 %; 8.3: 2,30 % (equal)

No real changes. Made a projection here, and have QBs in 8.2 thrown as many attempts as in 8.3, the difference over 40 years would have been +10 interceptions in 8.3.


- TD-Int ratio: 8.2: 1,66; 8.3; 1,47 (-0,21)

Pretty clear having checked TDs and Ints before this.


- QB Rating: 8.2: 85,75; 8.3: 81,08 (-4,67)

Pretty clear also, as all categories but interceptions have dropped from 8.2. The best ranked season is only 30th with a 84,7 rating, trailing 8.2 average by 1 QBR point and 8.2 best season by 5,1 (89,8 QBR).



2. Which stats contribute the most to the QBR drop?

I made some projections through ceteris paribus assumptions in order to determine which stats weigh the most in QBs posting worst QB Ratings, ranked from highest to lowest:

- % Completions: +1,67 QBR

Surprinsingly, YpA is not the highest contributor to the QBR drop. Taking % Completion percentage to the same level of 8.2 version would result in a 1,67 rise of QBR.


- YpA: +1,60 QBR


- TDs: +1,40 QBR


- YpC: +0,70 QBR


- Ints: +0,01 QBR


If we change both YpA and Comp % QBR would increase 3,27 to 84,35 QB Rating, still trailing 8.2 version by 1,4.


3. How do 8.2/8.3 versions compare to real NFL?

As I said before, real NFL stats have been changing dramatically over time, and 1980 stats cannot compare to 2010 in anything but maybe YpA and TD %. Because of this, I divided real NFL seasons in 8 groups of 5 seasons each to render better comparisons. Therefore we have 10 groups: 8 real NFL related, and two more FOF related (one 8.2, one 8.3).


- Att/Game:

8.3 36,3
8.2 35,8

2015-19 35,0
2010-14 34,6
1995-99 33,4
2000-04 32,7
2005-09 32,6
1985-89 32,0
1980-84 31,4
1990-94 31,4


- % Completions:

2015-19 63,28%
8.2 62,87%
2010-14 61,13%
8.3 60,87%
2005-09 60,47%
2000-04 59,07%
1990-94 57,39%
1995-99 57,16%
1980-84 56,06%
1985-89 55,03%


- Yards/Game:

2015-19 252,1
2010-14 246,2
8.2 241,7
8.3 231,4

1995-99 225,3
1985-89 224,5
2005-09 224,4
1980-84 222,3
2000-04 221,8
1990-94 214,8


- Yards/Catch:

1985-89 12,7
1980-84 12,6
1990-94 11,9
1995-99 11,8
2010-14 11,7
2000-04 11,5
2005-09 11,4
2015-19 11,4
8.2 10,7
8.3 10,5



- Yards/Attempt:

2015-19 7,20
2010-14 7,12
1980-84 7,08
1985-89 7,01
2005-09 6,88
1990-94 6,84
2000-04 6,79
8.2 6,76
1995-99 6,75
8.3 6,37


- TD %:

2015-19 4,48%
2010-14 4,37%
1980-84 4,30%
1985-89 4,14%
2000-04 4,05%
2005-09 4,04%
1995-99 4,00%
1990-94 3,84%
8.2 3,81%
8.3 3,39%



- Int %:

1980-84 4,34%
1985-89 4,00%
1990-94 3,45%
1995-99 3,23%
2000-04 3,23%
2005-09 3,06%
2010-14 2,75%
2015-19 2,35%
8.3 2,30%
8.2 2,30%



-TD-Int Ratio:

2015-19 1,90
8.2 1,66
2010-14 1,59
8.3 1,47
2005-09 1,32
2000-04 1,26
1995-99 1,24
1990-94 1,11
1985-89 1,03
1980-84 0,99


-QB Rating:

2015-19 89,95
2010-14 85,79
8.2 85,75
2005-09 81,88
8.3 81,08
2000-04 79,65
1995-99 77,73
1990-94 76,82
1980-84 74,52
1985-89 74,27


Conclusions:

8.2 version can be compared to 2010-14 in QBR, but with a way more conservative approach (more completion %, more throws and safest interception % vs less YpA, YpC and less TD %, resulting in a similar TD to Int ratio).

There are no stats too off from a given real NFL 5 year span but maybe Att/Game and YpC, and I can see the compiled stats as an evolution (towards carefulness) in the game like any other across NFL history.

8.3 version, on the other hand, presents more flaws. QBR is similar to 2005-09 but twists have gone the wrong way in my opinion. TD%, YpC and YpA were already at the limit in 8.2. and went low too far from any 5 year real NFL span. It looks like as a conservative twist also, but with no reduced Int % and lower completion percentage the whole picture seems incoherent and unreal.


Last edited by desertrats2 : 02-10-2020 at 09:48 AM.
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Old 02-10-2020, 09:56 AM   #52
cdcool
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Nice work!
Jim should take note
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:22 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by desertrats2 View Post
I've made a little bit of research compiling passing data over a 40-season span from real NFL and 8.2/8.3 versions.
I'll analyze Att/Game, % Completed, Yards/Game, Yards/Catch, Yards/Attempt, TD %, Int %, TD-Int ratio and QB Rating.


this is a nice piece of work :-)



a few suggestions if you have time



- can you post the standard deviations for the categories you looked at? my tests were done with up to 10 seasons, so little point in looking at stddev. with 40 seasons we start to get more reliable values for that.

- it would be cool to see the defensive stats. i think we found the same thing, i.e. comp % down (and thus ypa down) due to mainly more defended passes, and some more bad passes caused by the increase in hurries.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:28 AM   #54
QuikSand
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Here's a thought on one of the reasons for the shift in targeting, especially of lower-RR receivers. Whatever calculation routine is used to determine whether the play ends up targeting the primary target or the secondary, it's presumably a function of "is the guy open?" In prior versions of the game, we had a strong sense that Route Running was a major, even determining, factor in that routine.

So, maybe, what's happening in 8.3 is that FOF has tilted back toward that question... some series of calculations of whether the play will indeed target the player listed as the primary target in the play design now works to a greater disadvantage for receivers with lower Route Running skills?

In theory, that could affect a lot of things... like more hurries (if the QB "going through reads" increases the chances of the defense getting enough time to pressure him) and those leading to bad passes.

It seems possible that, as a game dynamic, this could be the single big change from 8.2 to 8.3 that is causing the fairly profound "back in time" effects you testers are finding.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:35 AM   #55
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Wow great analysis desertrats!

IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.

Anyways, after scrolling through all the comments, it seems like just wr #'s have been nerfed a bit? I wonder what the usage of TE's has been under 8.3, I personally feel like their value might become much more important.
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:54 AM   #56
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Wow great analysis desertrats!

IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.

Anyways, after scrolling through all the comments, it seems like just wr #'s have been nerfed a bit? I wonder what the usage of TE's has been under 8.3, I personally feel like their value might become much more important.

I agree you get what you ask for now they complaining.
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:08 PM   #57
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IMO Jim shouldn't have changed a thing just because a handful of mp guys don't run the ball. Allow other teams to game plan against it. Now I'm 0-2 in mp vs the guy who passes all the time, but that's my own problem, not the games problem.


The problem was that this strategy if implemented correctly in 8.2 would beat any standard approach. Probably only Tzach was running it to its potential (in gameplan terms, but not yet in personnel) as far as I know, but if any experienced players decided to copy him it wouldn't of been difficult. Sooner or later that would happen as players would get frustrated and the MP game would go down the toilet.

Defensive play calling, and talent, simply didn't have enough power in the equation to stand up to the system.

We really only saw the tip of the iceberg as to what this system would of been capable of in 8.2. Once elite personnel were plugged in with chemistry and cohesion 10000 yard seasons would of been on the table with decent dice rolls. 9000 yards consistently.

As things stand I think this approach probably still edges out the standard approach. Although perhaps with superior roster management elite GMs may be able to get on top. Perhaps. But I still bet Tzach will do pretty darn well.

What we really needed from Jim was to keep the stats as per 8.2, but for there to be declining returns in the passing game. Play Action would be a useless entity if you never ran the ball. Pass rushers wouldn't have to give the running game a second thought and could totally focus on the pass. Right now that concept of declining returns can be worked around. To me its exploiting a flaw in the game, to others its fine and fair play. Whatever, it doesn't make real life sense and doesn't adhere to FOF and its model of producing realistic stats.

Anyhow for whatever reason Jim didn't go this route. Most likely because it would of been a major undertaking, above and beyond a simple patch I am guessing. Tightening the familiarity system would then mean having to adjust Rex also. You could force running plays in as Dawgfan suggested, but would players take to that? How much work would it take?

It just seems a real shame 8.3 had to happen. But it did have to happen or the game would of turned in to a farce in MP. People would soon get tired of losing to an unrealistic system. I understand people don't like the stats but I sincerely believe this would of spread through MP like a virus as it proved a dominating strategy.
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Old 02-12-2020, 03:54 PM   #58
desertrats2
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Thank you guys.

No problem with the standard deviations tzach, I had them calculated already.


- Attempts/Game:

8.2: 0,33 (Highest: 36,4; Lowest: 35,1)

8.3: 0,43 (Highest: 37,2; Lowest: 35,2)

Real NFL: 1,76 (Highest: 35,7; Lowest: 29,9)


- Comp %

8.2: 0,61% (Highest: 64,7%; Lowest: 61,6%)

8.3: 0,70% (Highest: 62,6%; Lowest: 59,6%)

Real NFL: 2,39% (Highest: 64,9%; Lowest: 54,3%)


- Yards/Game:

8.2: 3,93 (Highest: 251,4; Lowest: 233,6)

8.3: 3,32 (Highest: 240,0; Lowest: 224,8)

Real NFL: 9,98 (Highest: 259,2; Lowest: 205,4)


- Yards/Catch

8.2: 0,08 (Highest: 10,94; Lowest: 10,53)

8.3: 0,11 (Highest: 10,72; Lowest: 10,25)

Real NFL: 0,69 (Highest: 12,88; Lowest: 11,21)


- Yards/Attempt

8.2: 0,09 (Highest: 7,01; Lowest: 6,57)

8.3: 0,11 (Highest: 6,59; Lowest: 6,17)

Real NFL: 0,28 (Highest: 7,37; Lowest: 6,64)


- TD %

8.2: 0,15% (Highest: 4,12%; Lowest: 3,54%)

8.3: 0,16% (Highest: 3,66%; Lowest: 3,04%)

Real NFL: 0,37% (Highest: 4,80%; Lowest: 3,60%)


- Int %

8.2: 0,12% (Highest: 2,64%; Lowest: 2,04%)

8.3: 0,14% (Highest: 2,56%; Lowest: 1,99%)

Real NFL: 0,61% (Highest: 4,60%; Lowest: 2,30%)


- QB Rating

8.2: 1,45 (Highest: 89,8; Lowest; 82,9)

8.3: 1,71 (Highest: 84,7; Lowest: 78,2)

Real NFL: 4,19 (Highest: 92,9; Lowest: 72,9)


Regarding defensive stats, what I found is QBs being sacked a little bit less in 8.3 but defenses are being credited with more hurries and blocked passes and therefore increasing pass rush % by about 0,5%.

I haven't compiled real NFL data on defense as I couldn't find enough info except for sacks, but found out FOF8 defenses deliver a little over half a sack less per game than in real NFL.


- Sacks/Game (- 0,06)

8.2: 2,14

8.3: 2,08


- Sack % (- 0,22%)

8.2: 5,65%

8.3: 5,43%


- Yards/Sack (- 0,01)

8.2: 6,07

8.3: 6,06


- Hurries/Game (+ 0,28)

8.2: 4,19

8.3: 4,47


- Hurry % (+0,46)

8.2: 10,49%

8.3: 10,95%


- Blocks/Game (+ 0,07)

8.2: 1,01

8.3: 1,08


- Block % (+ 0,14 %)

8.2: 2,74%

8.3: 2,88%


- Pass Rush % (+ 0,51%)

8.2: 19,36%

8.3: 19,87%



Cannot assess with any certainty if what you feel is right, Quik, although I have the gut also. What I can and will do is analyze if the patch is influencing more WRs, RBs or TEs.
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:52 PM   #59
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Jim, just put 8.2 back with the updated rosters, it's fine.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:13 AM   #60
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If a small number of people in MP didn't play this way there would be no 8.3. If the commissioners out there stood together and stopped the tactic I see no reason why we all couldn't appeal to go back to 8.2. Until that happens I have to side with Jim.

0.4 YPA and 2% completion reduction versus 9000+ yard passing seasons. No brainer if he wants the game taken seriously. 8.3 will help contain the problem.

Last edited by Hammer : 02-13-2020 at 02:30 AM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:46 AM   #61
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If a small number of people in MP didn't play this way there would be no 8.3.

That's the point Nick. Why deploy a patch the majority (I am assuming most GMs want a sim reflecting play close to the 2020's NFL game) do not like when only a few GMs are gaming the game.

BTW, I'd have no issue shutting down this type of play in the TFL. You might need to do a lot of selling, however, to convince your buddy in the RZB.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:01 AM   #62
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BTW, I'd have no issue shutting down this type of play in the TFL.
What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:20 AM   #63
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Rob has come around since he saw 8400 yards and 90 TDs in the IHOF. He was actually delighted this was addressed. In the RZB Tzach was around. 500 due to a sub par roster. The yardage totals were not there.

Trying to explain to people there is a big problem in the pipeline doesn't get it done nearly as well as people seeing it for themselves.

Jim was in a tough spot. The game was being made to look unrealistic. It isn't his place to tell GMs or commissioners what to do. He fixes the game, or not. What choice did he have. The game was being made to look a joke.

Personally I think this is being over cooked. 0.4 YPA and 2% isn't a big deal or a game breaker. If others disagree then it is on us to come down on the tactic IMO. I am not sure the majority are against the patch. Just because a small few speak out I wouldn't read too much in to that. I suspect opinion is divided. The only way we all come together is to wipe the tactic out the game.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:49 AM   #64
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What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?

I think it has to revolve around making a fair stab at running the ball, by a running back. The lowest rushing attempts per game in a season has consistently been around 20 for many years.

Any GM caught exploiting a bug or exploit in the game for unfair advantage is subject to disciplinary action up to, and including, removal from the league.

i) An average of 15 rushing attempts per game by a RB over the course of a season is expected.

*Commissioners reserve the right to use discretion in enforcing this rule.


Should a team go 0-16, perhaps they deserve some slack.

The OL-RB cap workaround would go up in smoke.

Always useful to have a catch all "don't be a douchbag" rule also. Someone running 50 times a game in the final 3 games after going 13-0 going pass crazy would be caught under this rule.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:45 PM   #65
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What about the RB that carries the ball 400 times for 2600-2900 yards? House rule that too? Or the WR that plays on a balanced offense but gets 300-350 targets per season? House rule that too? Bottom line this is just a game, it will never be like the real NFL. Solution would be to put house rules in place, not sure many guys would stick around.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:56 PM   #66
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What about the RB that carries the ball 400 times for 2600-2900 yards? House rule that too? Or the WR that plays on a balanced offense but gets 300-350 targets per season? House rule that too? Bottom line this is just a game, it will never be like the real NFL. Solution would be to put house rules in place, not sure many guys would stick around.

Yeah, we discussed this point in the RZB. It is certainly one that naturally comes up.

For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:59 PM   #67
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What would the rule be? No passing more than the NFL single-game record?

Most leagues have guidelines prohibiting one-sided trading (but no hard rules). I was thinking something along those lines. GMs understand when they are pushing the limits, especially those smart enough to use this type of gimmick.

Actually, as RD pointed out, I would be more concerned about where do you draw that line in other areas. I've been able to get teams to rush for more than 3,500 yards and a 6.50+ rush average. But that was primarily due to an extremely good o-line. We ran about 50% of the time, far above the 2019 norm. Is that an exploit? I believe you can achieve a lot of success in FOF with balance, but others may have a different opinion.

Last edited by Dawgfan19 : 02-13-2020 at 04:13 PM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:10 PM   #68
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For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.

Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:14 PM   #69
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Yeah, we discussed this point in the RZB. It is certainly one that naturally comes up.

For me the difference is that we have the tools in the game to defend the running game. It isn't a game spoiler like the all pass offense is.

But it isn't a true NFL sim per say, don't ever remember an NFL RB having those kind of stats, 2600-2900 isn't realistic, and neither is 300-350 targets to 1 WR..
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:18 PM   #70
RD
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Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.

I agree with you Dawgfan, but very few GM's understand the defensive side of the ball.
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:22 PM   #71
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Also if I remember correctly Tzach plays in the IHOF, right? An everyday sim, I wonder how many GM's are actually taking the time to game plan for each game. In the fast paced world of IHOF I would say maybe 1/2 of them, if that many, which clearly give guys like Tzach a huge advantage. Rex doesn't do well against the all pass style of play.
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:27 PM   #72
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Cover-3 cloud and cover-3 sky are your friend. These defenses shut down an all pass offense, even before 8.3. And the defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), do not appear to hinder the defense, as you have implied elsewhere. At least that has been my experience.

Maybe average players but not guys who implement this properly. A strong MP league might make 9000, 8000 I would guess.

Play calls of defense really don't make that much difference compared to mighty QBx1 and WRx2 in 8.2.
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:59 PM   #73
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Maybe average players but not guys who implement this properly. A strong MP league might make 9000, 8000 I would guess.

Play calls of defense really don't make that much difference compared to mighty QBx1 and WRx2 in 8.2.

To be clear, the "gentleman" running this offense in the FFL is not a rookie and put 8,241 yards with a 98 QBR. Please stop the inferences that only certain leagues are "elite" and no one else knows how to play this game.

My point was that if you truly study how to stop an all-pass offense in 8.2, it is not all that difficult. Did the team in question make the playoff? Yep, but he was always one-and-done and could not beat the solid teams in the regular season (i.e., the GMs in the paying-attention-crowd).

I tend to enjoy league history. My main issue is that this type of garbage corrupts that history.
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:08 PM   #74
Hammer
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To be clear, the "gentleman" running this offense in the FFL is not a rookie and put 8,241 yards with a 98 QBR. Please stop the inferences that only certain leagues are "elite" and no one else knows how to play this game.

My point was that if you truly study how to stop an all-pass offense in 8.2, it is not all that difficult. Did the team in question make the playoff? Yep, but he was always one-and-done and could not beat the solid teams in the regular season (i.e., the GMs in the paying-attention-crowd).

But certain players are elite. That is exactly the point. I know you could copy Tzach and do exactly what he is doing. Just passing a lot isn't going to get it done.

You are saying 8,200 yards at 98 QBR, I am talking 8,400 yards at 120 QBR in MP. Huge difference. I would bet what Tzach is doing is totally different to the guy you are talking about.

It is easy to copy, in no time a lot of people could be running his system. You might pin it back a little, but it is still going to dominate. I sincerely believe if you or I played our system versus his in 8.2, we would lose over the long term. The only way to compete would be to do what he is doing = broken game. JMO.
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:28 PM   #75
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OK, but let's go back to a comment a made earlier. I am in 4 leagues with only 1 guy running this crap. There are not many AI teams in those leagues, so basically that's 1 / (32 * 4) = .0078125. Why revert to an NFL style of play 15 to 30 years ago due to a rounding error?

It seems like Jim caved into a few vocal GMs to an issue which could easily be resolved via other methods. I'm not in any of Ben's leagues, so I am not sure (other than the tzach situation) how much of an issue there is in those leagues. The "gentleman" in question is also is Shark's league, but that does not count!!!
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:33 PM   #76
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And I do think like I said before stats get skewed b/c of the fast pat sims in IHOF, I could be wrong but I do believe it contributes to escalated stats. Rex plans vs tzach's passing game doesn't bode well for his opponents.
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:06 PM   #77
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And I do think like I said before stats get skewed b/c of the fast pat sims in IHOF, I could be wrong but I do believe it contributes to escalated stats. Rex plans vs tzach's passing game doesn't bode well for his opponents.


I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.


If someone thinks this can be gameplanned for, lets get it out there for discussion so we can make this happen.


After seeing the extreme min/max effort put into the IHOF team, I've changed my tune and have to say that I'm with Nick that it's not like you can just throw a gameplan in there and beat him.


Your best defense is not allowing him to get WRs.
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:50 PM   #78
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I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.

I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????

Further, I was not suggesting to "just throw a gameplan in there". Have you guys try running an exclusive cover-3 cloud/sky? I checked some of the logs. The defensive schemes run vs. tzach are not what I would recommend. As RD posted, many GMs don't understand how to game plan on defense.

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Old 02-13-2020, 10:12 PM   #79
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I'm about 99.9% certain that if tzach took his IHOF team and ported it into ANY league, he'd do the same thing in 8.2 and 8.3 that he did in IHOF.


If someone thinks this can be gameplanned for, lets get it out there for discussion so we can make this happen.


After seeing the extreme min/max effort put into the IHOF team, I've changed my tune and have to say that I'm with Nick that it's not like you can just throw a gameplan in there and beat him.


Your best defense is not allowing him to get WRs.

Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.

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Old 02-13-2020, 11:11 PM   #80
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I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????

Further, I was not suggesting to "just throw a gameplan in there". Have you guys try running an exclusive cover-3 cloud/sky? I checked some of the logs. The defensive schemes run vs. tzach are not what I would recommend. As RD posted, many GMs don't understand how to game plan on defense.


It's accurate, I said if he were to port his IHOF team into another league, and I'd stand by that stud team still scoring 700 points again, or close to it. He flat out had the players to force the best out of that offense. RZB, he did not.


This is why I say keep WRs from him. He'll still give you fits, but not 700 points worth of fits.





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Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.
That's a one-off game, can't take anything from that at all.



You can run Cover-3 all you want, but how you gonna stop WR2 and WR3 in single coverage? Just a quick look through the logs before I do anything big, but it looks like he still shreaded Cover-3's. I can look further when I get more time, and possibly at more situations.


And I'll eat my words if I'm wrong.
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:17 PM   #81
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hammer, again we agree to disagree. i'm not sure if you are misdirecting people (like posting videos claiming that WRs were not important in 8.2, only to draft some in the 1st round), or else.

let's not confound strategy with bug/exploit. a bug is something that has been coded wrong, which is not the case here. an exploit is using something to unfair advantage, like calling 34 plays with a 43 defense (so you get an extra defender for free). passing the ball is an action of the game that is available to everyone to make a decision on on every down.

but anyway, i think jim is probably happy that we are back talking about a feature in the game rather than bug him with constant requests for fof9 updates.

i appreciate that nemesis, dawgfan and rd are turning the discussion into something constructive, so i'll share my thoughts here later

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Old 02-13-2020, 11:32 PM   #82
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I am NO gentleman!
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Old 02-14-2020, 02:13 AM   #83
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I really doubt this assumption is accurate. tzach was NOT successfully with the strategy in the RZB. He had a crap QB, but all that proves is that big, red bars trump everything else. What a surprise that is, right????.

Several GMing mistakes were made. Paying 2 1sts for a 50 rated veteran QB and then cutting him a couple of seasons later for example. I think his ability as a GM is a separate issue, it is the system. I am not trying to say he is a better player than you, simply that his system is something unique that changes things for all of us.

I have watched what he is doing close up, and tested things out. It seems you don't want to believe it, nothing new. Several months ago this was happening in RZB before he exploded in IHOF. People want to believe defensive gameplans can cure all. I guess we will just have disagree and leave it there.

Oh, and btw these 8400 yards and 120 QBR was achieved with an average 52 rated QB. As I said before, tip of the iceberg.

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Old 02-14-2020, 02:16 AM   #84
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Did he win the last bowl in IHOF? I don't think he did. Maybe it's b/c his opponent gameplanned against him. I'm not sayin tzach isn't good, what he does is impressive, but in a league that sims everyday, it's probably against a lot of rexed defenses or a base pkg that just sits there. Don't get me wrong tzach is pretty damn good.

The league moved to 8.3 during the playoffs didn't it, after he was dominating all year?

Again, it is the system. An exploit that is taking advantage of the familiarity system not working. Just like when people used back loading as a workaround. No different. Just spoils the game for people who want to play in a sporting manner. Any experienced FOF player can copy it and run it and do the same. Credit for developing it for sure. What I predict if he we go back to 8.2 is that better GMs will end up copying him, getter better players and passing for 10000 yards in a season because the exploit is too powerful to beat by fair means.

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Old 02-14-2020, 10:35 AM   #85
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It seems you don't want to believe it, nothing new.

I always try to keep an open mind, especially with questions such as: "are the opposing defenses running cover-3 schemes?" I was trying to assess if tzach deployed an unbeatable system or no one made an effort to defend effectively. Perhaps you became confused and are describing yourself. After all, I am not the GM who has a reputation of spreading misinformation for my benefit. And please don't take that as a personal attack - just echoing the opinion of others in the community.

So, I did a little research by reviewing the game logs of tzach's regular season and playoff games. There were zero games running exclusive cover-3. Also, there were an alarming number of M2M, QB spy and (incredibly) buzz plays. Why would anyone run those defenses against an all pass team? As RD suggested, this is a fast paced sim, correct? Either the GMs don't have time to game plan or are not paying attention. This implies the mountain of stats tzach compiled were inflated.

I'm interested in hearing tzach's take on all of this. But here are my observations. A pass happy team can rack up tons of yards and points against the poor to middle of the pack teams. But come playoff time vs. a good GP, an all pass strategy can wilt. Itís all about risk/reward. And those turnovers in big games lead to one-and-done playoff appearances or losses in the bowl game. BTW, the TOs are more than INTs but strip sacks. The gentleman/non-gentleman in the FFL finished 5th in fumbles with zero runs and few QB scrambles.

Just my 2 cents (with an open mind). Well, perhaps 25 cents.
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:46 AM   #86
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You can run Cover-3 all you want, but how you gonna stop WR2 and WR3 in single coverage? Just a quick look through the logs before I do anything big, but it looks like he still shreaded Cover-3's. I can look further when I get more time, and possibly at more situations.

And I'll eat my words if I'm wrong.

Depends on the cover-3 you run. For example, in a cover-3 cloud, the CB not in the deep zone rotates to the best WR. Thus, an LCB with a great M2M is key. The other DBs are in zone coverage, so you are not defending WR2 and WR3 in single coverage.

Actually, I'd prefer to run cover-3 cloud against an all pass offense. But being concerned about hidden defensive familiars (assuming those still exist), I mix in cover-3 sky and just a very few cover-4. Also, no blitzing other than the normal 4 man rush from a 34 front.

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Old 02-14-2020, 12:02 PM   #87
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I'm interested in hearing tzach's take on all of this.


thanks for sharing your view -- i'll certainly comment. friday's are difficult so apologies, but i really appreciate your time ot postt your views. you're right in many aspects.
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Old 02-14-2020, 12:27 PM   #88
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You should really do some testing Dawgfan. I think you will be flat out shocked how samey the defensive play calls are. In fact one team in the RZB used M2M and M2M Buzz as their primary defense for a whole season a couple of seasons ago. The Vikings if you want to see for yourself. Their run defense was pretty average as was their pass defense. There is slight benefit in calling the "right" plays on defense, but actually very little. Test it for yourself. Double coverage works pretty well, but on the flip side assigning DC on the wrong guy has a detrimental effect. So unless it is a poorly designed offense, it won't help you a whole lot.

You are absolutely right about the misinformation though. Quite funny really. I guess you didn't stick around long enough to catch on, but it is all a bit of fun. Joel and I deliberately talked up QBs one season, must of been around your time? Trying to push them up the board. Most seasons I over or under hype players. Usually not players I have any interest in. We have so much going on with videos and writing around draft time in the RZB, this is just part of the circus. I always own up afterwards what was BS and what wasn't. It will continue too, lol.

I am going to leave you guys to it. I am sorry you don't like 8.3. I think it's great as it was necessary. So does Jim obviously. It would never of happened if people didn't try to play the system, that is something you really can't point the finger at me for. I may of brought it to Jim's attention, but the man has his own mind and you should trust he did what was best under the circumstances.
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:53 PM   #89
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I do test, Nick, and I perform a lot of tests. I'll let my bowl record speak for itself.

The USFL has some of the best game planners around. My Wichita squad has been in the top four defensively four years running. I either have a bit of knowledge re: game planning or I am damn lucky with dice rolls. Perhaps I should book a trip to Vegas if I'm that lucky.

You've stated there are tools defend the run game. My point is that there are also tools to defend the 100% pass. But we both know the offense will have the upper hand in both cases. Check out my Vikings team with over 3,500 rushing yards.

TFL01974

So, we need an 8.4 patch because this is not realistic. Baltimore set a new NFL rushing record in 2019 with 3,296 yards that's an outlier. That broke a 1978 record, 41 years ago when teams ran a lot.

I also could not help but notice you ignored my research regarding the lack of defensive game planning in IHOF. You're making the assumption the pass cannot be defended when teams are running a buzz. Makes no sense.

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Old 02-14-2020, 01:59 PM   #90
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The league moved to 8.3 during the playoffs didn't it, after he was dominating all year?

Again, it is the system. An exploit that is taking advantage of the familiarity system not working. Just like when people used back loading as a workaround. No different. Just spoils the game for people who want to play in a sporting manner. Any experienced FOF player can copy it and run it and do the same. Credit for developing it for sure. What I predict if he we go back to 8.2 is that better GMs will end up copying him, getter better players and passing for 10000 yards in a season because the exploit is too powerful to beat by fair means.

Not 100% sure, but I don't think so
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:58 PM   #91
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My point of view on all this is that this is a game. The closest version to the real thing in a game that we have at our hands. There are always going to be GM's that are heads and tails above the rest, many of which are commenting here. My problem with this change is I think it has made it less interesting for the rest of us that are never going to be that elite GM, won't win multiple bowls in multiple leagues. Point is there were many different ways to compete and be competitive in 8.2. In this new version, I think you are going to have more people than before lose interest in leagues and the game. It is not fun to watch your QB throw 36 times in a game, and complete under 50% of his passes. This has happened way too often in many games i have played since the new patch. If Tzach wants to pass every down, then let him knock his socks off. If someone wants to run every down, so be it. This is in the rules of football, you can run it or pass it or be balanced. The Patriots have been one of the most successful franchises in NFL History, they have always been a pass team first and sprinkle in the run to keep the defense honest.

The best NFL Coaches are always trying to find a new way to get an edge, the running game will come back in the NFL, everything is cyclicle. Why in the world Jim made a change due to a few GMs complaining is beyond me.

I am not a guy that goes into depth with the analysis that many of you do here but I know what my eye tells me and this version is a huge step back. If this is now what we have while we wait for FOF9. It may never come out as people are going to lose interest playing this flawed version for much longer.

Just my two cents.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:48 AM   #92
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Why in the world Jim made a change due to a few GMs complaining is beyond me.

Exactly!!
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Old 02-15-2020, 02:16 AM   #93
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I am genuinely sorry to hear you feel that way Kev. I do understand where you are coming from. I am just incredibly frustrated that we are having all this disruption due to a tiny proportion of players. This could of been avoided. In answer to the last couple of posts I think Jim was compelled to protect the reputation of the game. 0.4 ypa and 2% completion percentage doesn't stick out like a sore thumb.

You have been playing a long time and feel the change. Seeing hugely inflated figures, stick out a mile away. It makes the game look silly from a mile away.

I would also say don't buy too much in to the hype this patch is getting. If the most detailed study here is correct your below 50% completion rate games are only being effected by 2%

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Old 02-15-2020, 02:44 AM   #94
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I am genuinely sorry to hear you feel that way Kev. I do understand where you are coming from. I am just incredibly frustrated that we are having all this disruption due to a tiny proportion of players. This could of been avoided. In answer to the last couple of posts I think Jim was compelled to protect the reputation of the game. 0.4 ypa and 2% completion percentage doesn't stick out like a sore thumb. You have been playing a long time and feel the change. Seeing hugely inflated figures, stick out a mile away. It makes the game look silly from a mile away.

First you say the stats donít stick out like a sore thumb, then you say it makes the games look silly.

I donít understand where you are coming from, you trying to play both sides of the fence.
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Old 02-15-2020, 08:00 AM   #95
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8.3 stats don't stick out like a sore thumb. It is only a 0.4 YPA drop, and 2% completion.

The 8000 passing yard stats made the game look silly in 8.2.

That is what I meant.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:25 AM   #96
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Not 100% sure, but I don't think so


If you're not 100% sure that the 8.3 patch was released in the playoffs, it was. It happened during the time Ben was away and no sims happened.
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Old 02-15-2020, 09:51 AM   #97
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8.3 stats don't stick out like a sore thumb. It is only a 0.4 YPA drop, and 2% completion.

The 8000 passing yard stats made the game look silly in 8.2.

That is what I meant.

So you are happy with the Patch? I only play single player.
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Old 02-15-2020, 11:07 AM   #98
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If you're not 100% sure that the 8.3 patch was released in the playoffs, it was. It happened during the time Ben was away and no sims happened.

I stand corrected, I was referring to the bowl game tzach lost in CCFL, I think it was to juggernaut, pre 8.3 patch.
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Old 02-15-2020, 12:17 PM   #99
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I thinks it's way too early to make the assumption the 8.3 stats will be tame in MP leagues. It's one thing to evaluate those results in test leagues. But many human GMs can game plan much better than the AI.

As an example, I'm seeing pass rush pct. much higher in the USFL. We have seven teams with a PR % north of 26%, including one at 30%. Normally, 23% to 26% leads the league.

If you like 1990s to 2000s era football, this patch is for you!!!
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Old 02-15-2020, 02:22 PM   #100
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Because there's a lot of names here I don't recognize: I'm the ungentleman who has been running an an allpass gameplan in the OSFL+FFL+CCFL+GML. I've been doing it a long time, I always make weirdo gameplans and when I tried 100% pass with the new FOF8 gameplanning I came up with a system that wasn't terrible. My first impression was to wonder why people weren't already doing it, but after joining some other leagues I saw others were starting to push the envelope as well. I've discussed the situation at length in those leagues, and Dawgfan has given a quick picture of the situation in the FFL. Tzach certainly has some additional elements to his playbook that I hadn't considered, and his attention to detail in teambuilding is much greater than mine, the latter alone is what makes him so hard to beat. I am not hard to beat, btw I'm 3-7 in the FFL right now due to allpass shakyness, and having an objectively terrible defense.

Dawgfan, I actually enjoy your commentary on my FFL team even though you hate my style, I spend more time on the FFL boards recently just to see what you've got to say and I respect your approach to the "problem" of allpass gameplans. I agree with you that the allpass is not inherently overpowered, I think my own MP results speak for that as I've never won a bowl outside the GML and have never been better than 100ish QBR even though I've had multiple 7500-8000yd+ seasons. I agree with you that non-optimized allpass teams like mine are at worst a statistical nuisance (I'd say a beautiful display of historic magnificence but we disagree there) but my teams have never been consistent threats to win titles in my 20+ MP seasons not counting the GML. Optimized teams can be extremely dominant, but that's not only true with allpass.

Optimized teams of any style are extremely dominant, if we use the "it wins too reliably and can't be stopped" argument to eliminate offensive styles or GMs from MP FOF, then the FFL should've kicked Dawgfan out decades ago for winning approximately 50 of the last 30 Superbowls. However I understand the need to balance any PVP game, in Magic: The Gathering for example if a certain card/build shows up at a pro tour event in too high a percentage because everyone feels they need to play it or they can't compete, that's when they consider house-ruling the card by restricting or banning it. I don't believe the allpass had become even remotely dominant in MP FOF yet, and personally I don't think it ever would've been any more unstoppable than a well built run-heavy team. I agree with Dawgfan that the community has really been slow on the uptake with how to stifle these gameplans, allpass exposed a weakness in the metagame's defensive adaptability and their win% could be reigned in with just stepping it up defensively. GET GUD, as the kids say, and no it's not as simple playing Cover3 with whatever players you have. Some GMs act like there should an "Easy Button" for stopping the allpass like as soon as you know you're up against it you can just play X defense and it's an easy win. Knowing is only half the battle, every Dcoordinator in the NFL knows wtf Andy Reid is up to, they looked at every single play he's run for years, it's still really hard to stop.

You will always have guys like me who play for the love of doing something different, and I'm going to push the limits under whatever set of house rules. I don't focus on championships. If I get great offensive stats I'm not inherently bothered by going 8-8, I'm trying to build great careers and break records and put guys in the HOF. I'm very proud of the Big Cheese's career, but even in the GML he won only 1 superbowl in a league with no injuries and no ability for my opponents to play pass-only defenses. Dawgfan is correct to say I will not quit passing 100% until there is a hard stop. I love house rules, they make different leagues special so I will always follow the rules but (this is REALLY important) I will not keep my enjoyment of the game on a leash just because my weirdness bugs people. This is online PVP football guys, it's not a message board healing circle. I'm not supposed to do what's best for you and your team, I give very little thought to how much others will enjoy me building my team or gameplans.

That brings me to my main disagreement, the reaction I am most bothered by from the anti-allpass folks, which is that the strategy is somehow violates the Great Unwritten Code of "sportsmanship" decided upon by the high council of FOF elders. If a league votes out an owner, or votes in a house rule, I have no problem with that. If a human is simply strongly disliked by 20 people in MP then I'd say they played their cards wrong, and as stated before I am pro-houserule. However, I don't ever think it should ever be a commish, or group of 3 people or whatever, that decide to boot someone for either A: Winning too much, or B: Breaking too many records. Those are the only well-defined criticisms of the allpass I've heard, and I do not like people insisting it violates the spirit of the game because they personally are bothered by it. Maybe I'm bothered by you guys winning so many Superbowls while I get none. Maybe Dawgfan should peel back on his stranglehold of playoff glory in the FFL because just think how it makes others feel? I've heard enough commishes/GMs express an unwillingness to houserule or boot allpassers so I don't think it'll be a problem, but I would urge the strongest haters to consider they don't have the consensus they think they do, and if they can't exactly define what should be designated in a house rule then it shouldn't be a vague rule enforceable on the whim of NFL fundamentalists.

I'm not surprised people are frustrated by 8.3 since it was blanket solution that in some ways made the problem worse by making it harder to pass for all teams while the allpass enthusiasts can minimize their exposure to the changes in much the same way we adapted to 8.2. We're adaptable sonsabitches how we came to develop these gameplans and teambuilding approaches was through studying the game, personally I run SP tests in 1000 season samples, so I'll figure out how to get my best results whether it's 90 QBR or 100 QBR. It is obvious that a more popular tweak would've been to strengthen a diminishing returns system for passing via familiars, etc, but Hammer is likely correct that would be too much work for Jim at this point for FOF8.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk

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