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Old 06-13-2009, 03:33 PM   #1
SirFozzie
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Interesting times in Iran..

Iran is trying to lock down all media right now, but it honestly looks like they tried to rig the Iranian election, and we could be in for some serious upheavel out there.

Apparently Iran's own election monitors have declared the victory fraudulent (the #'s came in steady at 66-69% for Ahmadinejad, which is pretty much ridiculous).

There have been reports of 50-100 dead as Iranian police/religous police are trying to crack down hard on the protests/riots that are going on.

The pictures coming out are very disturbing, let's hope that things get better there.
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:36 PM   #2
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Mousavi got like 40% of the votes in his own hometown. Um.
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:39 PM   #3
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Not only were the results steady in over all numbers, they apparently are also very steady from region to region. With what little I've seen through secondary sources it certainly looks clear that Knamenei stole the election.

That being said, I'm not sure what's going on or where it will lead. I've heard a lot about protests in Tehran, but I'm unclear as to whether or not they've spread. If it stays isolated to Tehran it will be an ugly crackdown, but the final result doesn't seem in doubt. If a popular uprising breaks out in other cities, who knows where this could lead.
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:40 PM   #4
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was anyone really thinking that the election was going to be fair??

i was always under the impression it would be rigged
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:42 PM   #5
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Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:45 PM   #6
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Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.

generally fair yes, but i dunno - i was under the impression that the Ayatollah basically will get his man in power however he has to. now usually maybe he hasn't had to resort to outright fraud to do that, but that doesn't really mean it's a fair and open election.
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:46 PM   #7
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Good thing we don't have problems like unfair elections in our country!
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:49 PM   #8
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Good thing we don't have problems like unfair elections in our country!

I was thinking the same thing.

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Old 06-13-2009, 03:51 PM   #9
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The election was fraudulent? That's shocking.

It is a curious decision, though. One would think with Obama now leading the US, that a new "moderate" voice would ensure some degree of smoothness in US relations, given the US plan to pull out of Iraq and the more "carrot"-y approach that the Obama admin is inclined to use. I'm guessing they really don't like Bibi running Israel all that much.

In all reality, until the mullahs and their power apparatus is dismantled, it's hard to see things improving there regardless of who they let win the election. Could we be witnessing a revolution? I'd like to think so, but I'm skeptical until it actually happens. We marked Tiannamen Square not too long ago (notably, the Chinese didn't except in Hong Kong).
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Old 06-13-2009, 03:59 PM   #10
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I was thinking the same thing.


You know, JFK was elected half a century ago. You really need to get over it.

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Old 06-13-2009, 04:14 PM   #11
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You know, JFK was elected half a century ago. You really need to get over it.

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Old 06-13-2009, 05:21 PM   #12
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Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected.
Moreso than that, instead of amateurishly committing vote fraud they rigged them by only allowing hand-picked candidates to run. Khatami and Ahmadinejad were both surprising "reform" candidates when they won, although clearly neither was actually moderate, and Ahmadinejad didn't even bother to keep up the farce.

In the same vein, Mousavi isn't exactly a moderate by any stretch, he's just the convenient oppositional rallying cry. Similar to how some Palestinians were saying privately Likud could have run against Fatah and won.
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Old 06-13-2009, 06:09 PM   #13
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This absolutely blows my mind. What is the point of rigging a meaningless election? Do they WANT unrest?
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Old 06-13-2009, 06:38 PM   #14
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This absolutely blows my mind.

How uncouth, to speak like this about JFK.


I think Iran may be worse than the precinct in Ohio back in 2004 that supposedly went overwhelmingly for Bush. So much so that more than 5000 votes more than were even registered were supposedly tabulated.

When the poll results were about even, then the election is this far off it smells about as clean as Ahmadinejad looks.
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Old 06-13-2009, 08:13 PM   #15
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I'm beginning to think that the only way to get honest elections is to put every single vote out on the internet.
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Old 06-13-2009, 08:22 PM   #16
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Juan Cole gives six reasons why he thinks the election was stolen.

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1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.
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Old 06-13-2009, 08:23 PM   #17
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I'm beginning to think that the only way to get honest elections is to put every single vote out on the internet.

Just like MLB All Star balloting?

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Old 06-14-2009, 07:26 AM   #18
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Juan Cole gives six reasons why he thinks the election was stolen.
Quote:
1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

7) According to the BBC World News this morning the BBC polled the 2000 absentee Iranians in London - 90% said they voted against Ahmadinejad. The figure quoted from Iran, however, was that 80% voted for him.

What is surprising is that the fraud was so crude. It as if Ahmadinejad has done this deliberately to put across the message "fuck your democracy, it'll change nothing here".
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:41 AM   #19
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I really hope this doesn't end with another Tiananmen Square.

Moussavi has been arrested for traffic violations? Did anyone else watch Ahmadinejad's press conference just now?
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:03 AM   #20
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I heard on NPR that they disabled the text messanging system for the country, as well as heavily restricted usage of the interwebs. I could believe that Ahmadinejad won the election, but not by the statistical improbabilities that they're saying he did.
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Old 06-14-2009, 06:58 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Crapshoot View Post
Election Liveblogging – Saturday « niacINsight

Good stuff.

Re: DT; the thing is, Iranian elections are generally fair; they're just limited powers being elected. In this case, the fraud seems so obviously simplistic that its stunning.

Thanks for the website tip.
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:04 PM   #22
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I heard on NPR that they disabled the text messanging system for the country, as well as heavily restricted usage of the interwebs. I could believe that Ahmadinejad won the election, but not by the statistical improbabilities that they're saying he did.

In this case, I can't believe Ahmadinejad won. For the simple fact that if he had, no funny business would be required. He must have actually lost for them to have bothered to do fraud on this level.
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:07 PM   #23
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At this point is it even fraud? It seems like they just made up the results. No fraud needed.

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Old 06-14-2009, 07:29 PM   #24
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At this point is it even fraud? It seems like they just made up the results. No fraud needed.

Making up the results is fraud.
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:47 PM   #25
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Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:49 PM   #26
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Making up the results is fraud.

To me fraud means taking the time to cast votes for people who are dead. Throwing out ballots because they don't meet some made up standard that wasn't there to begin with.

Fraud to me entails some sort of effort to make things happen to back up your claims of victory. This is just the idea that people went to vote, nothing mattered, and the results were decided by somebody saying...let's go with 62%.
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:51 PM   #27
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Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing

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Old 06-14-2009, 07:54 PM   #28
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I'm more upset with how stupid they are in perpetrating the fraud. Don't they have an Iranian Nate Silver that could come in and make the results look realistic? I mean why 62%?
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Old 06-14-2009, 07:58 PM   #29
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I'm more upset with how stupid they are in perpetrating the fraud. Don't they have an Iranian Nate Silver that could come in and make the results look realistic? I mean why 62%?

That's what I told my wife...it's like someone who cheats on a test....normally gets 60s and then pulls down 100 on the test. If you're going to cheat, go for the high 80s/low 90s.

In this case, why would you do anything above 55%?
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:00 PM   #30
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To me fraud means taking the time to cast votes for people who are dead. Throwing out ballots because they don't meet some made up standard that wasn't there to begin with.

Fraud to me entails some sort of effort to make things happen to back up your claims of victory. This is just the idea that people went to vote, nothing mattered, and the results were decided by somebody saying...let's go with 62%.

Regardless of what you think fraud is, making up results is still fraud. Just saying...
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:06 PM   #31
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That's what I told my wife...it's like someone who cheats on a test....normally gets 60s and then pulls down 100 on the test. If you're going to cheat, go for the high 80s/low 90s.

In this case, why would you do anything above 55%?

To rub it in the people's faces maybe.
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:09 PM   #32
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To rub it in the people's faces maybe.

Probably right...basically telling everybody f-u.
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:13 PM   #33
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Old 06-14-2009, 08:18 PM   #34
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Probably right...basically telling everybody f-u.

It's probably more important to show a landslide to regional powers than to make it believable to skeptical "outsiders" for obvious reasons similar to the crap that Hussein used to try and get away with.

As for why it was 65%? There might have been some calculated methodology. I'm going to guess that the 35% who voted for Alihamejed (sp?) won't care if it was rigged, and the 30% that could have gone either way will believe it. That's 65% of the population right there and how many of that 65% are really going to pursue the truth against a very hostile dictatorship? My guess is none of the smart ones.

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Old 06-14-2009, 09:06 PM   #35
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The Iranian spin machine is hard at work, comparing this election to the 2004 U.S. presidential election, when GWB got the most votes in American history, in spite of going into the election with a 40% approval rating.
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Old 06-14-2009, 09:12 PM   #36
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Its surreal. What's even dumber is people like Mike Pence, who think the Obama screaming will help the cause of the protesters; does he not realize that the same pride prevalent here exists in Iran? Having foreigners meddle will only hurt the cause of the reformists.
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Old 06-14-2009, 09:36 PM   #37
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Wow.. if these reports are right, Iran has imported Hamas/Hezbollah to crack down on the students.. some of the graphics I'm seeing on The Daily Dish etcetera are fucking disturbing

Sullivan has later corrected that to make it clear Ansar is a hardcore Iranian group.
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Old 06-14-2009, 09:53 PM   #38
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This Huffington Post thread is doing a great job of updating what's happening in Iran.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/0..._n_215189.html
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Old 06-14-2009, 10:25 PM   #39
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The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.
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Old 06-14-2009, 10:33 PM   #40
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Has anyone seen or heard from Moussavi since the election? Did they jail him or kill him yet?
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Old 06-14-2009, 10:46 PM   #41
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Last I heard about him, he was supposed to meet with some of the Ayatollahs. If he's disappeared, he's either jailed or dead.
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Old 06-15-2009, 01:20 AM   #42
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I last heard under House Arrest (housing complex surrounded by Basij/IRGC). He's allegedly planning a march tomorrow at 4pm Iranian time (not sure precisely what that is to EST)
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Old 06-15-2009, 01:37 AM   #43
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The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.

well sooner or later they'll get it. nice to see that there's a progressive generation there though that will push for it over time. they may have to wait till the Ayatollah's generation dies off though.
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Old 06-15-2009, 01:38 AM   #44
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1:57 AM ET -- A plea from Mousavi. Andrew Sullivan passes along a telephone plea from Mousavi, via his contacts at BBC Persia:
I AM UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS OF THE SHAM ELECTION. THEY HAVE CUT ME OFF FROM ANY COMMUNICATION WITH PEOPLE AND AM UNDER SURVEILLANCE. I ASK THE PEOPLE TO STAY IN THE STREETS BUT AVOID VIOLENCE.
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Old 06-15-2009, 04:59 AM   #45
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Iran's supreme leader orders ballot probe - CNN.com
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Old 06-15-2009, 07:06 AM   #46
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The "We Want Freedom" chants choked me up a little bit. I know we can't do it, but I hope someone goes in there and gets those kids backs before the government mows them all down.

This is something we discussed in the Obama thread the other day. Iran was teetering on a revolution even before the election results. This could easily be the powder keg that sets off another revolution in Iran.
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Old 06-15-2009, 07:22 AM   #47
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are there any other videos from inside Iran?
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Old 06-15-2009, 07:28 AM   #48
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Plenty, check twitter mostly. The Huffington Post above has some too.
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Old 06-15-2009, 07:33 AM   #49
Neon_Chaos
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Give it one week. Without the intervention or pressure from the United States, the UN, or other foreign countries, these rallies are going to be snuffed by sheer military show of force.

i.e., the Monks in Myanmar in '07.

http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=61206
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Last edited by Neon_Chaos : 06-15-2009 at 07:40 AM.
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Old 06-15-2009, 08:15 AM   #50
JAG
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos View Post

My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.
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