Interesting times in Iran..

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JAG

My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.

FWIW, option A is quickly becoming less of an option if the Supreme Leader and his council want to avoid a revolution. Whether the revolution would be successful is certainly in question, but a sham probe at this point won't likely quell the opposition. Given that they couldn't even rig an election to look legitimate, I'm not sure anyone has much faith that they'll rig an investigation to look legitimate either.

I have a co-worker who was born in Iran who still has family over there. They are telling her via e-mail that the protests are going to get much bigger over the coming days and they're worried that the troops will fire on the protesters and kill some of them. Their hope is that if that does happen, it will be reported in the rest of the world.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

[wade moore]

This whole thing is incredibly interesting, scary, and exhilarating at the same time.

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by JAG

My reaction to that (and others I'm sure shared this) was: So the people who likely committed election fraud will look into the allegations of election fraud? That should work out well.

a. Riots and such are put down and stability returns, committee amazingly finds no election wrongdoing.
b. Unrest continues and worsens, international pressure, etc... Ahmadinejad is used as a scapegoat so the Supreme Leader can continue leading.

My money is unfortunately on a. but I'll continue to hope.

It's probably true, but the fact that they are publically stating this is some kind of victory, if one were to consider that they could have ignored it completely and just stated the results were correct.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

generally fair yes, but i dunno - i was under the impression that the Ayatollah basically will get his man in power however he has to. now usually maybe he hasn't had to resort to outright fraud to do that, but that doesn't really mean it's a fair and open election.

In recent years the ruling clerics have become secure enough in their power to allow what's essentially a hand-picked slate of candidates to contest the election, who may vary somewhat in ideology. So, the Ayatollah doesn't necessarily get "his man" but he's guaranteed to get a "man" who won't be too divergent from his worldview.

Do we have an idea yet if the fraud was perpetrated by Ahmadinejad and his allies, or by elements in the Guardian Council itself? I'm having trouble believing that the latter would do this, especially on orders from Khameni when they simply could have introduced a slate of candidates to contest Ahmadinejad who had no hope of winning.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by wade moore

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

20 years ago. Hope to God it ends differently.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

In recent years the ruling clerics have become secure enough in their power to allow what's essentially a hand-picked slate of candidates to contest the election, who may vary somewhat in ideology. So, the Ayatollah doesn't necessarily get "his man" but he's guaranteed to get a "man" who won't be too divergent from his worldview.

in my mind that counts as "getting his man" - it's just that his man is "one of a few"

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by wade moore

This whole thing is incredibly interesting, scary, and exhilarating at the same time.

It's hard to explain - but I can't think of a time in my lifetime when I saw a revolution building, in such a significant country, in such a significant way.

Very very very very scary. Specially for the people who are rallying in the streets.

In 1986, we overthrew the posterchild dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, I was only 4 years old, but my parents went to the rallies. There were thousands of people in the streets marching up against tanks and armed soldiers. Marcos refused to give the order to shoot, the United States switched allegiances and pressured Marcos to flee, and the military switched sides, leading to his ouster.

In 2001, I joined a similar rally to oust one of the most corrupt presidents in Philippine history, although this time around, the military had already declared their loss of confidence in the President and had refused to intervene.

We were lucky those two times, but I see this revolution in Iran to either end up being squashed or to result in bloodshed, similar to what happened in 1989 in China.

Without a revolution that has the backing of a foreign power, I don't think anything will change much in Iran.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Without a revolution that has the backing of a foreign power, I don't think anything will change much in Iran.

Let's not kid ourselves here. The U.S. has pumped billions of dollars into the opposition effort. It may not be reported, but there's no question that it's there.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Let's not kid ourselves here. The U.S. has pumped billions of dollars into the opposition effort. It may not be reported, but there's no question that it's there.

Oh, I'm not pointing to the US specifically.

Without the overt support of other nations, perhaps from other Islamic countries (riiiiight. In a million years?), the revolution will most likely fail.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

20 years ago. Hope to God it ends differently.

Well

A) I was 10 years old 20 years ago
B) We did not have either the Cable News Coverage or the Internet coverage 20 years ago that we do now. The visuals coming constantly would not have happened in 1989.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The blogosphere gets on my nerves at times, especially with their trumped up sense of importance, but I think the criticism of the MSM over this event is justified. Getting ready for work, neither CNN, MSNBC, or FOX were showing video, talking about this, or anything. Just a stark contrast to CNN's work at Tiananmen. Sullivan said "The Revolution will be twitterized" and I'm not sure he's wrong on this one.

[Passacaglia]

I never knew that you could search twitter by location, but I guess you can find tweets coming out of Tehran here: http://search.twitter.com/search?q=+...n:15mi&lang=en

[Neon_Chaos]

The pictures from the Daily Dish are amazing.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Sullivan said "The Revolution will be twitterized" and I'm not sure he's wrong on this one.

teh br1t1sh r comin!1!!!1!
teh br1t1sh r comin!11!11

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Mustang

teh br1t1sh r comin!1!!!1!
teh br1t1sh r comin!11!11

http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

BBC reporting shots fired at a rally in Tehran.

[fantom1979]

[fantom1979]

From that video, it looks like quite a few people on the streets.

[fantom1979]

Tehran is 8.5 hours ahead of the Eastern Time Zone, so it is currently about 9PM there.

[fantom1979]

.

[JPhillips]

Lots of tweets coming in saying there is gunfire.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

NPR: Death Reported At Tehran Rally; State Dept. 'Deeply Troubled' By Events

Confirmed gunfire, at least one death.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Man, this is such a volitile situation right now. Interestingly enough, a revolution within Iran could have big implications for Iraq. Many of those causing instability would likely head to Iran to try to preserve the islamic republic over there. Just SO many ramifications to what happens in the coming days in Iran.

[lungs]

I was sure off base on how I thought this would all play out (see Obama thread).

[JediKooter]

Well, I remember what happened over 30 years ago in Iran and the Shah fleeing out of there and the taking of the American emabassy. Been down hill for Iran ever since.

Hopefully, this will lead to a more progressive Iran, but, I'm not holding my breath.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

As I've seen noted on several sites, the protesters HAVE to keep pushing and showing up every day. We've seen similar protests in 1999 and 2003 that died out.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

As I've seen noted on several sites, the protesters HAVE to keep pushing and showing up every day. We've seen similar protests in 1999 and 2003 that died out.

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Way too big to post here, but what a shot:

Twitpic - Share photos on Twitter

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by wade moore

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

Yes, we're extremely blessed that we live in a country where we have a government and military that protect that right for us.

With that said, it's pretty clear judging from the switch to investigate by the Supreme Leader that the initial pressure by the opposition is heavy enough that they couldn't ignore the calls of fraud. They have to keep that pressure up. Right now, world leaders are just expressing concern. If casulties start mounting, the world will swing heavily behind them and they'll be in a bit more of a pickle.

I saw that the opposition took out two of the government-run news sites. Amazing how technology introduces the opportunity of a form of warfare fought by people sitting at a keyboard. Andrew Sullivan said that his site has been under attack by gov't supporters as well trying to stop the flow of information out of Iran.

[Flasch186]

...and Twitter finally became meaningful to me.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Apparently Obama will speak at 5. Interesting to see how he handles this.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by wade moore

That's really, REALLY easy for us to say...

Twenty years ago I was sure I'd be out with the protesters if I lived in China. Now, with a four year old daughter, I'm not sure I could risk not coming back home and any reprisals by the government on my family.

RIP inner revolutionary.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Way too big to post here, but what a shot:

Twitpic - Share photos on Twitter

That is a hell of a shot. For some reason - that I haven't really investigated yet - pictures like this induce a major twinge of brotherhood. It really is exhilarating to see these people come out peacefully demanding better of their country. It is also nice to see the Islam = Honesty signs. We see (via our media) the name of Islam asserted for so many bad things, it is nice to see it being asserted for something positive. Nice to see some evidence of what we already knew...that there are plenty of moderate Muslims. If there ever is an international presence in Iran backing these people, I hope it is in response to a request for aid.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

More HQ photos of events since Sunday.

Iran's Disputed Election - The Big Picture - Boston.com

[stevew]

I think it's great that people of opposing political viewpoints in america can agree this is totally fucked. Hopefully at some point the Iranians can have the right to elect their own leadership peacefully and justly(even if we hate who they put in office).

[sabotai]

Someone's eyewitness account (for what that's worth) of what happened. He's twittering about it now.

http://twitter.com/naeimkarimi

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

I can only imagine what will be going on 24-48 hours from now.

[JohnnyBGood]

What a powerful photograph.

A backer of Mir Hossein Mousavi helps evacuate an injured riot-police officer during riots in Tehran June 13, 2009

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by stevew

I think it's great that people of opposing political viewpoints in america can agree this is totally fucked. Hopefully at some point the Iranians can have the right to elect their own leadership peacefully and justly(even if we hate who they put in office).

Yeah. Our typical red-state/blue-state bitch fest about marginal tax rates really does seem petty compared to what is happening in Iran.

I'd love to see the people of Iran have the freedom to lead themselves. Here's hoping that they are able to take it. And that we do whatever we can do as a people to help make it happen.

[gkb]

Scott Adams had a post about the Iranian election today and a prediction.

But I am going to make a prediction. I think the Supreme Leader will report to his people in a few weeks that the election was rigged by supporters of Ahmadinejad, without the President's knowledge. And the election will be held again. And I predict you will also hear allegations of meddling by outside powers, meaning the U.S. and Israel, but those suspicions will not be supported by evidence.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Being somewhat realistic here, might be a good idea for someone to follow up on the status of that injured riot cop at some point. He probably didn't get those injuries playing Rollerball.

[JohnnyBGood]

Really amazing the similarities between this and what happened in Tiananmen Square. It is the young generation, the students in particular who are leading this movement in Iran, very powerful. I almost cried when I saw the picture of the how the "basij (civilian militia)" went after the University of Tehran and destroyed the property of students, the essence of knowledge, tolerance, and understanding... education. How brave they are facing that dark machine. I'd like to think I would do the same in that situation, but I am not so sure.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

I can only imagine what will be going on 24-48 hours from now.

wow. seriously.

also loved the pic by JohnnyBGood under your original post - showing real human compassion.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yeah. Our typical red-state/blue-state bitch fest about marginal tax rates really does seem petty compared to what is happening in Iran.

I'd love to see the people of Iran have the freedom to lead themselves. Here's hoping that they are able to take it. And that we do whatever we can do as a people to help make it happen.

+1

seriously

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Wow. Confirmed reports that the protesters followed the unofficial religious police back to their headquarters after they opened fire. Protesters burned down their headquarters and killed the commander of that base.

Confirmed, or unconfirmed? If confirmed, where? Because I can't seem to find it (and I'd like to, because it's potentially one hell of a development).

All I can find is that at least one protester at that site was killed & several others seriously injured (according to a photographer who talked to various reporters) as they attempted to storm the building. Also a reference to one person being arrested in connection with the shooting (according to the BBC) but the story was vague about whether that was a militia shooter or a protesting shootee.

[wade moore]

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Twitter is such a nightmare.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by wade moore

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Twitter is such a nightmare.

you say nightmare i say "positive tool for revolutionaries looking to fan the flames"

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by wade moore

JiMGA - As far as I can tell, "confirmed" right now means a couple of people posted about it on twitter.

Oh, you mean this guy?