2017 College Football Season thread

[HerRealName]

Ohio State -21 over Indiana seems way too high. Having Wilson in OSU's booth is going to be a big difference this year but Indiana has a good squad. I think Allen made a big mistake hiring DeBord too. I can't think of a more overrated offensive coordinator.

[HerRealName]

Dola - ok, maybe Tim Beck.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by tarcone

How many teams does the B1G have ranked in the top 11?
The SEC?
The ACC?

I guess if the B1G is Pop Warner, the rest of the nation is Ultimate Frisbee

You do realize it's been 2 years since they've scored a point in the CFP, right?

I mean congrats on 10 win teams, it really helps the other conferences perception when they beat a 10nwin team in a bowl.

[tarcone]

2 games doesnt define a conference

[Logan]

Originally Posted by lungs

You sound like a Minnesota fan.

Wisconsin will lose to Northwestern or Nebraska or something like that. But they will win the division.

Jon Taylor is a beast. As a Rutgers fan, that stings. Not quite as much as Saquon Barkley but wouldn't be surprised if it's close when all is said and done.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

You do realize it's been 2 years since they've scored a point in the CFP, right?

I mean congrats on 10 win teams, it really helps the other conferences perception when they beat a 10nwin team in a bowl.

I'm pretty sure Ohio State and Michigan both beat 10 win teams that 15-16 season. Personally, I give less weight to bowl games than I do a game like Ohio State vs Oklahoma during the regular season though.

[hollmt]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

You do realize it's been 2 years since they've scored a point in the CFP, right?

I mean congrats on 10 win teams, it really helps the other conferences perception when they beat a 10nwin team in a bowl.

singling out 2 specific games over 2 years...you're stretching.

[digamma]

Just released Ohio State 2017 team picture:



Love the new unis.

[tarcone]

Man, I wish.

[HerRealName]

Urban has probably offered 5 of those kids just in case.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by tarcone

2 games doesnt define a conference

No it doesn't, I concur.
It is just that the 2 best teams, the last two years, go against other conferences best teams and get SMOKED. Which suggests that if they played in other conferences they would be somewhere middle of the pack.

Besides no reason to stop at 2. I was just taking the Big 10's BEST showing.

Last year Wisconsin beats a Non P5 team by 8
Penn St loses
Iowa gets smoked
Ohio State gets Smoked
Michigan loses
Nebraska loses
Northwestern WINS
Indiana loses
Maryland loses
Minnesota wins

That is 3-7 with 1 of the wins coming against a group of 5 school

Lets go back another year
Penn ST loses
Northwestern loses
Ohio State wins
Iowa loses (badly)
Michigan state gets SMOKED
Wisconsin wins
Minnesota beat a non P5
Indiana loses
Nebraska wins

That's 4-5 with 1 of the 4 wins coming against a group of 5 team.

The data suggests when the Big 1-0 ventures outside their nice little footprint they are somewhere between below average and putrid against other competition.

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Personally, I give less weight to bowl games than I do a game like Ohio State vs Oklahoma during the regular season though.

So an early regular season game means more than a post season college football playoff game?

You will have to die on that hill alone. I aint even coming up there to fight ya.

Somehow when comparing conferences I think the NFL puts more stock in the Pats win over the Falcons than their loss to the Seahawks in early November. Maybe that's just me.

Originally Posted by hollmt

singling out 2 specific games over 2 years...you're stretching.

Ok lets take it back to the entire CFP era.
Big10 - 2-2 with 1 NC
ACC - 3-2 with 1 NC
SEC - 3-2 with 1 NC
PAC - 1-2 with 0 NC
Big12(9) - 0-1 with 0 NC

I'd suggest those numbers rank the Big 10 clearly 3rd in the CFP era, not "clearly #1"



And just in case it isnt obvious...Im just having fun here. No malice. Thank GOD college football season is back.

[Thomkal]

Coastal Carolina starts its season at home in an upgraded stadium against UMass. I have no idea what to expect from them this season. They are not at full scholarships yet, don't think they can be in a Bowl game yet, and their head coach is out for the season with some potentially serious medical issues. As of this morning, they had not announced which of the 6 or 7 QB's on the roster would be starting.

So let's just say I don't have a lot of hope at this point

[tarcone]

The NCAA changed the signing date from Feb to Dec. This gives the players more power in their recruitment.
Then there were some stats on how many offers teams were giving.
I couldnt find it, but a couple SEC teams offered over 200 players. Iowa State was listed 2nd, they offered 331 schollies last year.

[tarcone]

No malice taken.

Lets move a couple those bowl games to the B1G footprint. I would love to see Florida play Iowa in Lambeau on Jan. 1. I wonder who wins?

ACC, SEC, PAC 12, Big 12 have an inherent built in advantage of building teams that play in warm weather.
The B1G has to build a team that plays in Minneapolis in November. Ever been to Minneapolis in November? It may not be real cold that day. But the wind will be blowing.
That doesnt transfer well to those bowl games.

And, of course, Im a 5* and Alabama wants me as does Wisconsin. Its cold in Wisconsin 9 months a year. But not in Alabama.

These are all arguments everyone has heard. But they are valid.

I love college football season. One reason is because of the smack talk and back and forth among great fans of the game from different locales across the nation. And the lack of SEC fans on this site.

[HerRealName]

I agree that the Big 10 is in the 3 or 4 range in the playoff era. The ACC and the SEC have clearly been better.

I'm a little surprised you lean so heavy on bowl games outside of the playoffs. I'm curious what others think on that topic. We've seen plenty of teams lack initiative in their bowl game, I don't see the same thing for top 10 type teams during the regular season.

[bob]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

No it doesn't, I concur.
It is just that the 2 best teams, the last two years, go against other conferences best teams and get SMOKED. Which suggests that if they played in other conferences they would be somewhere middle of the pack.

Until the playoff is played immediately after the season ends, I still view these as exhibitions that you can't draw real conclusions from. While these teams in the playoff have the same real motivations to win unlike say a bowl game, the circumstances of the teams can have a real impact with the month+ delay.

One example from the previous championship game system: Notre Dame vs Alabama. Now, Alabama would very likely would have beaten ND mid December. But it is very true to say that due to injuries, ND basically didn't run any practice with tackling for a full month - couldn't afford any more injuries. And what did their great defense have the most issues with against Alabama? Tackling.

Again, Alabama would have beaten Notre Dame in December, but maybe the game would have been closer or at least close for a while.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Logan

Jon Taylor is a beast. As a Rutgers fan, that stings. Not quite as much as Saquon Barkley but wouldn't be surprised if it's close when all is said and done.

All signs point to him being the best running back on the team. He won't get the most carries out of the gate, but I'd bet by the end of the season, he is Wisconsin's lead back.

[cartman]

Texas plays Maryland on Saturday, their 4th all time meeting. Last game played between the two schools was the 1978 Sun Bowl. Maryland has never scored a point against Texas in their three previous meetings. Pretty sure that'll change this weekend.

[tarcone]

Iowa went on a streak in the 2000s where they beat 4 SEC teams in a row in bowl games.

The last 2 we have crapped the bowl. Not sure why. But a lot of had to do with Greg Davis.

[digamma]

CUTiger can correct me but Clemson simulates different weather patterns as part of their new football facility. Here is a picture from their spring game, simulating winter weather. Look at the crowd, not to mention the size of their players.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Iowa went on a streak in the 2000s where they beat 4 SEC teams in a row in bowl games.

If Wiki is correct Iowa has only won 3 straight bowl games once in their history - 09/10/11 ... but that was SC / GT / Mizzou, just two SEC teams in that.

Now what I guess you meant was that they've beaten four SEC teams in bowls since 2004 ... but they had a loss to Florida in the middle of that streak.
(beat UF & LSU, then lost to UF, then beat SC and Mizzou) ... except Mizzou didn't join the SEC until two years later.

And in the 2000, in years where Iowa beat SEC teams

Jan 1, 2004 Outback over Florida (Iowa 4th in B10, UF 5th in SEC)
Jan 1, 2005 Capital One over LSU (Iowa won B10, LSU 4th in SEC)
Jan 1, 2009 Outback over South Carolina (Iowa 5th in B10, UF t6th in SEC)

I'm not entirely sure what your point was but it isn't looking all that great here.

[tarcone]

Quit fact checking me, Man.

I think I was just pointing out that Iowa, and other B1G teams, have had success in bowls. Countering the previous comments.

As for places in the conferences, I thought the SEC was the greatest thing since sliced bread. So wouldnt 4th in the SEC be like the greatest B1G team of all time?

[hollmt]

today is my Friday and I am bored at work. thought this was interesting.

ACC

since 2010
18/92 teams had 10 or more wins = 19.6%
43/92 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 46.7%
31/92 teams below .500 = 33.7%
playoff era
9/42 teams had 10 or more wins = 21.4%
19/42 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 45.2%
14/42 teams below .500 = 33.3%

ACC steadily has 2 or 3 teams each year w/ 10 wins and a lot of mediocre teams with not as many bad teams. They have been steady as a conference since 2010.


BIG

since 2010
24/89 teams had 10 or more wins = 26.9%
31/89 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 34.8%
34/89 teams below .500 = 38.2%
playoff era
13/42 teams had 10 or more wins = 30.9%
11/42 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 26.2%
18/42 teams below .500 = 42.9%

BIG has more teams with 10 or more wins BUT alot of shitty teams with a handful of mediocre teams. They have improved at the top since the playoff era but have also lost mediocre teams and gained more teams below .500.


SEC

since 2010
29/94 teams had 10 or more wins = 30.8%
36/94 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 38.3%
29/94 teams below .500 = 30.8%

playoff era
9/42 teams had 10 or more wins = 21.4%
22/42 teams above .500 but less than 10 wins = 52.4%
11/42 teams below .500 = 26.2%

SEC has the most teams overall with 10 or more wins since 2010 and was the most steady from 2010 to 2014 but have fallen since the playoff era with the most mediocrity.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by hollmt

ACC steadily has 2 or 3 teams each year w/ 10 wins and a lot of mediocre teams with not as many bad teams. They have been steady as a conference since 2010.

Then again, by record, if a lot of bad teams play each other consistently (as in a conference schedule) then the records of each of those bad teams would rise toward mediocrity.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Compared to the others? The best.

When the other conferences only sport one or 2 teams with double digit wins, the B1G is the top league.

Parity does not mean best.

If those double-digit wins are built on the backs of the bottom half of the conference, then does that really mean "best" or just "greatest difference from top to bottom"?

We'll see how the conferences do in out-of-conference match-ups, as that will give us a better gauge of how they stack up. Not to mention how they rate in measures like Sagarin, FEI, S&P and FPI.

[hollmt]

Not sure why you chose to just quote the ACC portion....

I meant the ACC has been steady in their top teams, mediocrity and bad teams from 2010 on. That is likely a good thing and shows consistency.

Where the BIG has 'improved' in top 10 win teams, but has also gained more sub .500 teams since the playoff era. One could argue the BIG has more 10 win teams because of the lack of quality teams throughout and they just beat up on bad teams. The other could argue, those 'bad' teams were just beat up by really good teams. Different strokes.

The SEC clearly has diminished (I notice that you ignored that ) in regards to top teams and have jumped drastically in the mediocrity department with over half their conference riding middle ground or slightly above. Does that mean they are bad? No, not at all. The SEC's bread and butter argument has been that they 'beat up on each other all season long.....'

One can argue for their specific conference until they are blue in the face and look at % trends and W-L records to support their argument. I was just offering a look at the 3 we are discussing the most and thought it was interesting.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by hollmt

Not sure why you chose to just quote the ACC portion....

Cause that was what caught my eye. No more, no less.

I meant the ACC has been steady in their top teams, mediocrity and bad teams from 2010 on. That is likely a good thing and shows consistency.

Yet it feels like it's taken steps forward in the past year or two, compared to what felt/looked (whichever) like it was a long way away from elite (hell, I'd have argued closer to nonP5 than P5) for a while there.

The SEC clearly has diminished (I notice that you ignored that )

I'm not sure anybody reasonable denies that it's down from it's peak. The Leastern Division has seen to that.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by tarcone

The NCAA changed the signing date from Feb to Dec. This gives the players more power in their recruitment.
Then there were some stats on how many offers teams were giving.
I couldnt find it, but a couple SEC teams offered over 200 players. Iowa State was listed 2nd, they offered 331 schollies last year.

Slight correction. They have added an additional signing day in Dec.
This is primarily to close the stupid loop hole they created with early enrollees. Until 2 years ago no student could receive financial aid until they signed their NOI, which meant if they graduated High school early and enrolled in classes in January the school couldnt give them a scholarship until after Feb 1. Created all kinds of stupidity ...the bursars office could just bill and wait on tuition money but housing was trickier.

A couple years ago they added the financial aid agreement signatures where kids can sign that early, but actually still werent locked into school until feb 1. Now kids can "sign" in December. That is the primary focus of the rule. But the "hidden" benefit is coaches can get a Feb signee/fall enrollment kid to sign in December and then down the stretch recruiting run they dont have to "waste" time keeping that kid firm. They can get their kid off the market.

Zook at Illinois used to be the worst at throwing offers out. Tennessee is bad about it now as well.

Originally Posted by tarcone

And, of course, Im a 5* and Alabama wants me as does Wisconsin. Its cold in Wisconsin 9 months a year. But not in Alabama.

Thats true. And it's why the Big 10 schools struggle to be as good as the SE schools. It's a reasonable explanation. Just because the inferiority is justified doesnt mean it doesnt exist.

Originally Posted by HerRealName

I'm a little surprised you lean so heavy on bowl games outside of the playoffs. I'm curious what others think on that topic. We've seen plenty of teams lack initiative in their bowl game, I don't see the same thing for top 10 type teams during the regular season.

I hate this argument. Im not saying it is never valid. But by and large when a teenager takes the field to play a game he plays to win. I've never seen a team that didnt want to be there. If you have a coaching change and the HC is interim maybe. But kids play.

Originally Posted by bob

But it is very true to say that due to injuries, ND basically didn't run any practice with tackling for a full month - couldn't afford any more injuries. And what did their great defense have the most issues with against Alabama? Tackling.

FWIW neither Clemson nor Alabama tackle to the ground in practice after the season starts...

Originally Posted by digamma

CUTiger can correct me but Clemson simulates different weather patterns as part of their new football facility. Here is a picture from their spring game, simulating winter weather. Look at the crowd, not to mention the size of their players.

I wouldnt be surprised if there is a weather seeder in that new building.
LOL.
I think the weather thing is also overplayed. 2 years ago ND came to Clemson and we played in a literal freaking hurricane. The story all week was how the big midwest offensive linemen would dominate and Clemson better pray for sun. Gameday was a unanimous ND pick, with 3 mentioning weather.
After the game Brian Kelly said he was really disappointed they didnt get to play on a clean dry field as speed was their primary weapon.

[Butter]

Notre Dame- Clemson was just in heavy rain.

Notre Dame-NC State, now that was a literal hurricane.

[bhlloy]

Lagow looks like he could be an NFL prospect. Gunning it in against some future NFL defensive backs. Plus any QB not wearing a QB number is instantly cool.

[BishopMVP]

Unfortunately Ohio State kind of figured out how to defend the fade, but some nice playcalling by Indiana that drive to take back the lead. Simmie Cobbs is a dumb name, but a good WR!

Originally Posted by Butter

Notre Dame- Clemson was just in heavy rain.

Notre Dame-NC State, now that was a literal hurricane.

Ah yes, the game where Brian Kelly still insisted on throwing it 31 times in a 3-3 game in an actual hurricane, including on 3rd & goal from the 19.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Coastal Carolina starts its season at home in an upgraded stadium against UMass. I have no idea what to expect from them this season. They are not at full scholarships yet, don't think they can be in a Bowl game yet, and their head coach is out for the season with some potentially serious medical issues. As of this morning, they had not announced which of the 6 or 7 QB's on the roster would be starting.

So let's just say I don't have a lot of hope at this point

Well, the good news is you play UMass this week, so you should be able to get one W.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Confession: until my son texted me about it's absence earlier tonight, doing my weekly Top 25 hadn't even crossed my mind this year.

Gee, I've only done it 7 years running.

Says a lot about my state of mind (and interest as well possibly)

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Confession: until my son texted me about it's absence earlier tonight, doing my weekly Top 25 hadn't even crossed my mind this year.

Gee, I've only done it 7 years running.

Says a lot about my state of mind (and interest as well possibly)

Why, did someone kneel during the anthem or something?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter

Why, did someone kneel during the anthem or something?

The culmination of several years of there being very few legit contenders and a passel of pretenders who all have rather glaring fatal flaws.

The game has declined noticeably to me, probably starting within a few years of the scholarship reductions in the 90s and continuing through the expansion of
D-I, watering down the talent levels of teams. I've been very honest about my belief that, while I maintain a list of 25 as a matter of custom, everything from about 10 thru 40 or 50 is as much a coin toss as anything. And I'm obviously not alone in that sentiment, this year's combined primary two preseason polls had votes for 62 different teams between them. That's only a shade below half the teams in D-I.

That, plus the incessant phrase "the play is currently under review" making a major dent in the enjoyment of simply watching the games, combines to make this one of the least enthusiastic periods for the game I can remember having.

[Butter]

Doesn't have anything to do with your two favorite teams being consistently mediocre?

[digamma]

Congrats on the National Title! Another for the record moment, Clemson has won 2 out of 3 vs. Ga Tech, but is 5-5 in the last 10 and 18-17 since Ga Tech joined the ACC. Consistent as well!

[Butter]

So, Georgia Tech having a sub-.500 record against Clemson in the ACC all time is supposed to be some kind of burn?

Like at least go to the all time record. That's a burn.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Lagow looks like he could be an NFL prospect. Gunning it in against some future NFL defensive backs. Plus any QB not wearing a QB number is instantly cool.

Lagow looked great. His passes were incredibly accurate on a big stage with NFL prospect D-lineman crashing down on him. It's sorta too bad he's a senior. For Indiana's sake, it would be great if he could come back for another year and give the program a real boost. As is, it's gonna feel more like a one-time anomaly and then same ol' Indiana.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Butter

Notre Dame- Clemson was just in heavy rain.

Nope it was Hurricane Joaquin coupled with the 2015 North American storm complex.

The highest recorded rainfall in 34 of the 46 counties in SC in recorded history and major flooding that the midlands still haven't rebuilt from.

Granted 200 miles inland in Clemson the winds "only" reached the low 40 mph range....but it was no doubt a hurricane.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Butter

So, Georgia Tech having a sub-.500 record against Clemson in the ACC all time is supposed to be some kind of burn?

Like at least go to the all time record. That's a burn.

Nope, that wasn't the point at all. It was more of a Kid Icarus kind of joke. The sun is bright, yo!

[Logan]

I turned off the game last night at about 11:05pm and I believe there were still 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

College football games are wayyyyy too long.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Logan

I turned off the game last night at about 11:05pm and I believe there were still 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.

College football games are wayyyyy too long.

It was all the incomplete passes. There weren't even that many reviews. When you go up-tempo, and you have 1 completion for 7 yards, then 2 incompletions, you end up with a lot of possessions that are maybe 1 minute long that end in a punt. Then you have all the down time of changing possessions.

It did make for a long evening.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Nope it was Hurricane Joaquin coupled with the 2015 North American storm complex.

The highest recorded rainfall in 34 of the 46 counties in SC in recorded history and major flooding that the midlands still haven't rebuilt from.

Granted 200 miles inland in Clemson the winds "only" reached the low 40 mph range....but it was no doubt a hurricane.

Yeah, I know what it was but if you want to get really technical neither one was in a hurricane.

But NC State's game was far worse, weather wise. At least during the game window. That game probably shouldn't have been played.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter

Doesn't have anything to do with your two favorite teams being consistently mediocre?

Not that much really, I mean, I enjoyed baseball for decades when the Braves were horrid. I've had a lifelong passion for HS football while going to a school that's never won a playoff game in its nearly 60 year history. I've been a GT fan since the early 70s and lived through both the Rodgers/Curry transitional era AND the Bill Lewis era.

I tend to like a sport or not, I celebrate my favorites' success on kind of a different plane I guess.

[tarcone]

I can honestly say, I have not been this excited about an Iowa team in quite awhile. This team is going to be a lot better then people think.

1 1/2 hours to kickoff.

Go Hawks!

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I can honestly say, I have not been this excited about an Iowa team in quite awhile. This team is going to be a lot better then people think.

1 1/2 hours to kickoff.

Go Hawks!

If they struggle moving the ball against Wyoming image the difficulties they will have against a good defense. Your optimism must be based on your QB situation ending up well.

Very excited about Alabama/FSU later. What a matchup to start the season.

[Easy Mac]

So is Tom Herman on the hot seat now?

[cartman]

Maybe Charlie Strong wasn't the problem.

[CrescentMoonie]

Charlie Strong was obviously the problem.

Also, Wyoming and Iowa are playing the best game of the 1962 season right now.

[CrescentMoonie]

Lot of money to be made on weird prop bets in Austin today.