The Obama Presidency - 2008 & 2012

[Edward64]

Shinseki as VA secretary. I don't think we know the full accurate story but I do remember him as standing up to Rumsfelds optimistic projects for the occupation of Iraq. Glad Shinseki has landed somewhere.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I'm beginning to wonder how many of Obama's campaign promises will even come to pass at this point. His tax plan is reportedly going to be on hold indefinitely due to the downturn in the economy. Also, it appears that his advisors are considering holding off on many of the terrorism policy rollbacks after the massive attacks in India. Policy makers are concerned that a rollback of some pieces of the Patriot Act and Homeland Security changes may not be the correct move. They're worried that the terrorists are using these attacks to test how far they can go with Obama.

Though many Americans wouldlike to believe the whole revolves around us the plain truth is some things just happen regardless of us or how we think/feel about them. So I tend to disagree that these attacks had anything at all to do with us.

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Well, it's not really of his choice. He'd love to implement many of the policies that he promised during the campaign, but as I stated before the election, it wasn't likely at all that he'd be able to implement many of his policies as they simply don't make any sense related to real-world politics. As radical as many of Obama's suggested policies are, it appears that radicals from the other side of the world may hog-tie him for the most part. As a result, we're going to get a presidency for the next 4 years where not much 'change' actually occurs. I think the same would have been true of a McCain presidency.

The best part is that you are going to be cluelessly and harmlessly yammering away in cyberspace for the next eight years while President Obama actually gets shit done.

Your Internet addiction = good for America!

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Shinseki as VA secretary. I don't think we know the full accurate story but I do remember him as standing up to Rumsfelds optimistic projects for the occupation of Iraq. Glad Shinseki has landed somewhere.

Well, basically he's the guy who put together a plan for Iraq that postulated force levels of up to 500,000 troops. After saying as much when testifying before Congress, he was chewed out publically by both Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz.

This was, however, only one in a series of disagreements he had with Rumsfeld.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Huh? Other than for the infrastructure section, the rest sounds weak to me. If that's his energy plan, I'm very disappointed.

Most Emailed News Stories

I wonder how much detail, though, one can put in a press release.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Well, it's not really of his choice. He'd love to implement many of the policies that he promised during the campaign, but as I stated before the election, it wasn't likely at all that he'd be able to implement many of his policies as they simply don't make any sense related to real-world politics. As radical as many of Obama's suggested policies are, it appears that radicals from the other side of the world may hog-tie him for the most part. As a result, we're going to get a presidency for the next 4 years where not much 'change' actually occurs. I think the same would have been true of a McCain presidency.

Forgive me for pointing out that almost ALL of the shit you spouted on about during the election and in the days since the election have turned out to be total bunk.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Subby

The best part is that you are going to be cluelessly and harmlessly yammering away in cyberspace for the next eight years while President Obama actually gets shit done.

I really hope he "gets shit done" (as long as it's good shit). But I'm facinated by the optimism. Charisma is an amazing force.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by molson

I really hope he "gets shit done" (as long as it's good shit). But I'm facinated by the optimism. Charisma is an amazing force.

Agreed. These two articles profoundly demonstrate that the more things change, the more they stay the same.........

8 years ago:

Cheney Denies 'Talking Down' Economy for Political Gain : Talk of Recession Strains Transition - International Herald Tribune

Yesterday:

My Way News - Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

The only real difference is the spin on what is basically the same situation. It's all the same in the end. There were people making posts just like Subby and Flasch 8 years ago on the other side. It's silly, but not unexpected. They're just caught up in the moment. It happens to the best of people.

[Flasch186]

i point to my post a few posts above. You have totally been discredited when it comes to anything political especially any sort of speculation or prognostication.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Agreed. These two articles profoundly demonstrate that the more things change, the more they stay the same.........

8 years ago:

Cheney Denies 'Talking Down' Economy for Political Gain : Talk of Recession Strains Transition - International Herald Tribune

Yesterday:

My Way News - Obama: Economy to get worse before it improves

The only real difference is the spin on what is basically the same situation. It's all the same in the end. There were people making posts just like Subby and Flasch 8 years ago on the other side. It's silly, but not unexpected. They're just caught up in the moment. It happens to the best of people.

Where do you pull these from? It's not a big deal as we all borrow from other sites, but you have a habit of posting without citation. I have a hard time believing that you saw an AP article and said to yourself, "Hey that reminds me of an International Herald Tribune article from eight years ago."

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Where do you pull these from? It's not a big deal as we all borrow from other sites, but you have a habit of posting without citation. I have a hard time believing that you saw an AP article and said to yourself, "Hey that reminds me of an International Herald Tribune article from eight years ago."

These two articles were posted over at the Wizbang blog. I don't agree with all of their opinion in the blog, but the articles are a good reference.

[Flasch186]

reference for what?

[Senator]

I refer back to the title of this thread.

I hope I get my "President check" before Christmas.

I predict I won't.

[flere-imsaho]

The Obama Presidency - hopes and predictions

Personally, I'm hoping for a little bit less of this:

“YOU know you have arrived when you get interviewed by the 29-year-old instead of the 22-year-old,” the 57-year-old foreign service officer said to me with a laugh. It was late 2005, and this three-time ambassador had just been interviewed for a top post at the Department of State.

Her interviewer was part of a large corps of 20-somethings — some were in their early 30s — who ran the Office of Presidential Personnel. Many of them were sons or daughters of supporters of President George W. Bush. Others had connections through congressmen. With few exceptions, they had one thing in common: very little experience and a very big attitude.

Another top foreign service officer called me after his interview to be ambassador to a volatile African country. “The problem was,” he told me, “the kid interviewing me could not pronounce the name of the country I was being interviewed for. It made for an awkward interview until he just started saying ‘the country we are considering you for.’”

President-elect Barack Obama has chosen an all-star cabinet with great promise. But the next level of appointments — assistant secretaries, deputy assistant secretaries and ambassadors — are just as important. These people will brief the cabinet officials as they confront harrowing domestic and foreign policy challenges. We need competent people in these positions. And to get those people, we need experienced screeners, interviewers and decision-makers in the Office of Presidential Personnel.

My own experience is typical. I had three jobs in the Bush administration: ambassador for counternarcotics and justice reform in Afghanistan, deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement affairs and chief of staff of the United States mission to the United Nations.

For two of these jobs, my appointment was preceded by an effort by a 20-something in personnel to place an unqualified friend in the job. (In the third instance, the State Department went out of its way to avoid the personnel office by appealing directly to a senior assistant to the president.) For one of the jobs, two State Department officials, John Bolton and Anne Patterson, had to intervene.

In the worst cases, the “kids” — as many of us called them — would search for a candidate and eventually conclude, like Dick Cheney when he was the head of George W. Bush’s vice presidential search team, that they were the best candidates for the jobs.

The problems that resulted occasionally made the news. There was small bit of outrage in 2005 when a 30-something personnel employee picked herself to head the new Immigration and Customs Enforcement division of the Department of Homeland Security. (Her tenure included the publication of a photograph online of her standing next to an employee, who was costumed in blackface and a prisoner’s uniform, during a Halloween party that she hosted.)

Similarly, the inexperience of Monica Goodling, the former liaison to the White House at the Justice Department, contributed to the politics-based hiring of career lawyers and helped create a demoralizing scandal from which the department still has not fully recovered. But there were many other such stories that stayed below the radar screen.

In fairness to the Bush administration, for which I retain a great deal of admiration, putting young campaign workers and connected college graduates into White House personnel positions is nothing new. And some of them, like Stuart Holliday and Dina Powell, who ran President Bush’s personnel office for a while, were true professionals.

But if our new president wants to make an important change to how government works, he should fill the personnel office — and the liaison offices to the White House at the various executive branch departments — with a combination of veteran government employees and human resources experts. That’s the way to ensure that the best people get the jobs that will shape our country for the next four years.

[Dutch]

My hope is that Obama is the exception and not the norm of Illinois Democrats.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Geez, my hope is beginning to be that Obama's cabinet doesn't have any more skeletons in the closet. Looks like Rahm may not be the only one who Obama failed to adequately check his background. Another one of Obama's cabinet is a main player in a new 'pay to play' investigation.......

"Pay To Play" Probe Hits New Mexico, Washington Post: Gov. Bill Richardson's Office Investigated Over Political Contributor's $1.4M State Contracts - CBS News

"Pay To Play" Probe Hits New Mexico
Washington Post: Gov. Bill Richardson's Office Investigated Over Political Contributor's $1.4M State Contracts

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16, 2008

A federal grand jury is investigating whether a financial firm improperly won more than $1.4 million in work for the state of New Mexico shortly after making contributions to political action committees of Gov. Bill Richardson (D).

The probe focuses on whether the governor's office urged a state agency to hire CDR Financial Products. The probe is in a highly active stage at a time when President-elect Barack Obama has chosen Richardson as his nominee for secretary of commerce, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

The grand jury in Albuquerque is expected to hear testimony today from several key witnesses, including officials at Richard's political action committees and bankers at J.P. Morgan who worked with CDR on the state's investments.

The inquiry is part of a long-running nationwide investigation into "pay-to-play" practices in local government bond markets. In other cities, federal investigators are questioning whether financial firms have lavished politicians with money and gifts in exchange for fee-paying work advising municipal and local governments on investments. Authorities indicted the mayor of Birmingham, Ala., this month on charges of taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts and loans from a firm that led the city into toxic investments and massive bankruptcy.

In the New Mexico case, the FBI and federal prosecutors are investigating how CDR, based in Beverly Hills, Calif., won lucrative fees from the New Mexico Finance Authority in 2004 soon after donating $100,000 to two Richardson organizations.

From 2003 to 2004, CDR Financial gave $75,000 to Sí Se Puede, which paid for expenses at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. CDR's president and founder, David Rubin, also gave $25,000 to Moving America Forward, which funded Richardson's efforts to register Hispanic and American Indian voters.

Rubin was generous to Obama's campaign as well, giving $29,000 to help elect the senator to the White House. Yesterday, the Obama transition office declined to comment on the development.

Gilbert Gallegos, a spokesman for Richardson, said the governor was "aware of questions surrounding some financial transactions at the New Mexico Finance Authority" and expected state officials to cooperate fully. Gallegos declined further comment.

The U.S. attorney's office in New Mexico also declined to comment on the investigation, which began in the summer. Several Finance Authority board members have publicly confirmed being interviewed by the FBI. Paul Kennedy, an attorney for Richardson's former chief of staff, David Harris, confirmed that his client had been interviewed by the FBI in the summer but declined to comment further.

CDR's attorney, Richard Beckler, declined to answer questions about the probe's focus.

"CDR has always tried to abide by these byzantine campaign finance regulations and is cooperating fully with this investigation," Beckler said in a telephone interview yesterday.

CDR made $1.48 million advising the authority on interest-rate swaps and refinancing of funds related to $1.6 billion in transportation bonds issued by the agency, state officials confirmed. Interest-rate swaps are financial contracts based on the value of commodities, loans or other assets, and debtors sometimes use them to lower borrowing costs. But many swaps have recently proven unwise as the assets upon which they were based plummeted in value.

The state hired CDR after requesting proposals for a bond adviser on Dec. 30, 2003. Sources familiar with the investigation said CDR initially did not make the list of the top three bidders. But the authority committee considering the bids redid the selection process and split some work, eventually hiring CDR for a part.

Committee Chairman Rick Homans was Richardson's economic development secretary at the time. He is now Richardson's taxation and revenue secretary and has declined to comment.

[astrosfan64]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you obviously missed my rants on this in the election threads during the debates.

offshore domestic oil drilling would not provide a drop of oil that would find its way into american gas tanks within something like 10 years. the problem is that we don't have the rigs and drilling supplies to exploit offshore oil fields at the moment, and producing and deploying them then doing the drilling and refining would take that long.

now it IS true, and i do admit, that there is oil in ANWR that we could access sooner than that. I will also admit that I am not up to speed on exactly how much oil is up there and what type of effect it would have on gas prices in the short/intermediate term, but my impression has been that it's not massively significant (although let me state again, i don't know, so feel free to post objective scientific research proving me wrong). I believe i've heard scientists say it would be a drop-in-the-bucket compared to what we currently use, and certainly not a long-term answer.

the solution to energy independence is not drilling (either offshore or ANWR). It lies principally in the domestic (and later military) use of alternative energy sources.

Since you no nothing about this please stop talking. We have plenty rigs and drilling supplies for offshore. The problem is when oil drops to lower rates, it no longer worth the expense of drilling. The oil field is predicting a 50% drop in the amount of rigs this year from last in the north american drilling fields.

We just had our budget cut by about 1/3 for the next year.

[JPhillips]

Geez, my hope is beginning to be that Obama's cabinet doesn't have any more skeletons in the closet.

Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.

Actually, I was being sincere. I'd much rather we be able to discuss policies. Given the Obama attacks over the vetting of Palin, you would think that he would have done a better job on his end. It's obviously concerning.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Insincerity, thy name is MBBF.

He's even sincere enough to place it in multiple threads:
Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Illinois governor arrested on corruption charges.......

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

He's even sincere enough to place it in multiple threads:
Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - Illinois governor arrested on corruption charges.......

SI

Obviously, that was in response to a question, not a post meant to double post.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Obviously, that was in response to a question, not a post meant to double post.

Obviously, there's a great deal of sincerity going around this morning

SI

[JPhillips]

MBBF: You've been looking for any way to discredit Obama for months. That's fine, but at least drop the "wishing him the best" act.

[astrosfan64]

Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by astrosfan64

Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.

Agree with all of this. It's simply unheard of to think that people on this board or anyone in the general public would every root against a president. I can't remember the last time that's ever happened.

[Flasch186]

MBBF, did you ever admit to being completely wrong on the elections thread?

lemme see...

nope.

credit = zero

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I'm sure that Flasch's Truth Watch(TM) is just finalizing data on the criminal investigations in Chicago and New Mexico. He's never ducked an issue before. I'm certain he'll get to the bottom of these current issues. He's always been a person that seeks the truth regardless of party affiliation, and I respect him for that.

[Flasch186]

lets see

the prosecutor has arrested the accused
the pres-elect team has investigated
the prosecutor asked that the report be delayed and confirmed that the president elect and his team aren't being implicated

not sure what else you want from that other than the same thing I said about Troopergate:

I hope EVERYONE cooperates fully and the TRUTH comes out.

I feel fairly confident though that the President isn't going to start a parallel investigation and refuse to cooperate with Fitzgerald, if he does Ill be sure to lump him in the same category as the other people who do so.

you do want the same right? In all things, right?

Is that what you wanted? Pretty clear huh? exactly the same as Troopergate? You, however, were VERY VERY wrong, completely biased, and never ever admitted it even when empirical un-partisan information blew up in your face. that's just crazy IMO

[Buccaneer]

You guys realize that this continuing partisan bickering make both sides look like fools? Flasch/JPhillip/etc., don't get too cocky. You never have and still don't sound any different than MBBF/etc..

[JPhillips]

Buc: This is going to sound a lot bitchier than I intend it to be, but here goes. For all of your concern about other folks' behavior there's almost no one here more set in their ways than you are. I gather you see yourself as beyond partisanship, but even if that's true, you're a rather inflexible ideologue at this point.

I don't have a problem with your inflexibility and I'm willing to stipulate that I'm just as inflexible(age and parenting does that to a guy). I honestly don't have a problem with an adversarial relationship when it comes to politics as I think the genuine disagreements should be aired out. If we're ever going to change our minds it will be because of passionate argument, not deferential silence.

I try to only call people out when I believe they aren't being honest, and that's what I did with MBBF. I don't have a problem with him being opposed to Obama, but concern trolling is just a way to obfuscate reality. I obviously don't agree with MBBF on substance, but that's something we can argue over if there is an attempt by both sides to show our cards.

As for looking like a fool, perhaps, but as long as I'm deemed honest about my intentions I can live with that. I'm happier letting the world see me for who I am, warts and all, than I would be pretending to bathe in the warm waters of ambivalent and apathetic centrism. At the end of the day I think you believe the same thing.

[molson]

It's interesting, both sides think that the other sides' approach to an argument is "wrong" - they feel that way, of course, because they're so sure they're "right".

Disagreeing is "trolling", agreeing is something else, because hey, you can't be trolling if you're right.

[JPhillips]

molson: I think you misunderstand the term "concern trolling". That's when you feign concern for someone or something that you in fact have no concern for. It seems pretty obvious based on his history that MBBF isn't really concerned for Obama.

[Buccaneer]

As for looking like a fool, perhaps, but as long as I'm deemed honest about my intentions I can live with that. I'm happier letting the world see me for who I am, warts and all, than I would be pretending to bathe in the warm waters of ambivalent and apathetic centrism. At the end of the day I think you believe the same thing.

JPhillips, I do agree with that. I think I should not have lumped you with Flasch but instead, should put in Flere.

I actually don't think what I believe would be called bi-partisanship or centrism or beyond partisanship. It's probably an attitude that the current red/blue partisans are equally wrong. Since the summer, I have seen a constant stream attacking the opposition and being defensive about one side. You can call that passionate arguing but in the end, it is really about changing parties while we continue to accept federal government solutions and increasing powers. I cannot accept that and those that argue for it. Or something like that.

[st.cronin]

Bill Richardson is filthy.

[SFL Cat]

Politician = filthy

[RedKingGold]

Vote Ron Paul!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I try to only call people out when I believe they aren't being honest, and that's what I did with MBBF. I don't have a problem with him being opposed to Obama, but concern trolling is just a way to obfuscate reality. I obviously don't agree with MBBF on substance, but that's something we can argue over if there is an attempt by both sides to show our cards.

I actually was be honest about Obama. I REALLY would prefer that we don't have any scandals in the White House at this point. Obviously, I might have a small dab of sarcasm involved in my comments, but I was being very truthful in my feeling that I hoped Obama didn't end up in any political scandals.

Thus far, from a policy standpoint, I've been very happy that most of the Obama policies are moderating before our very eyes.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by astrosfan64

Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.

Actually, I really don't think it matter what exactly the president does. A lot of the current mortgage crisis were due to policies put into place before GW took office. Nor were the .coms turning to crap something Bush could have prevented. The world economy is suffering and that isn't strictly a GW problem either. I think you could put a retarted monkey in office, and these issues will clear themselves up. I'm not all that concerned with the "program." I'm more concerned about what his policies are going to do for the long haul, not the short term.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I think you could put a retarted monkey in office

Nah, we've already tried that and it badly didn't work

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by astrosfan64

Rooting against the president?

I don't understand how people can do that. Our country is in shambles right now and whether you wanted McCain to win or Obama should not matter at this point. I hope Obama does well, because we as a country need him to do well.

So everyone who is hating on him, just need to STFU and get with the program. If he sucks he will be gone in four years and our country will be in worse shape. But, we need him to do well if we want our country to recover.

Some people treat politics as a sport. They have their team and they root against the other. The country is secondary to their competitive nature.

It's an ironic twist since they are the ones who would like you to believe that they care more about their country because of their involvement in politics while in fact they aren't.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Bill Richardson is filthy.

I agree.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Actually, I really don't think it matter what exactly the president does. A lot of the current mortgage crisis were due to policies put into place before GW took office. Nor were the .coms turning to crap something Bush could have prevented. The world economy is suffering and that isn't strictly a GW problem either. I think you could put a retarted monkey in office, and these issues will clear themselves up. I'm not all that concerned with the "program." I'm more concerned about what his policies are going to do for the long haul, not the short term.

Agreed. My biggest fear in all this is we get so caught up in ensuring no one ever gets laid off or loses their retirement in the market that we remove many of the incentives that make the US what it is.

There's a tight line we are about to walk between showing some compassion to people in tough times and trying to remove all risk from American life. It seems like most of the fear has been associated with straying too far from the first direction, but little has been devoted to worrying about the second. In 8 years, we will all have made it through this either way, I just hope we don't do long term damage to our fiscal/economic system to stave off a few years of pain (that we probably won't avoid anyway).

EDIT - And for those in the republican/democrat horse race, I would be just as worried about the above if McCain had been elected.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Just read that Obama is considering Hillary Clinton for Sec of State. Assuming there can be a good working relationship between the 2 and Hillary can wait her turn in 8 yrs, I think she would be great. This brought me to ask what has Condi Rice done lately and honestly, without doing some deep research, I don't think she has been in the news or produced much of anything.

This got me thinking about the Obama presidency as a whole. Going into the election and reading post-election comments, there are extremely high expecation of what Obama will accomplish ... from righting the economy, ending the war in Iraq, capturing OBL, having the world love us again etc.

Outside of the economy which seems to be on cruise control to somewhere, what are your hopes and predictions?

My hopes are

1. Some massive overhaul for healthcare to fix the problem. Not sure if socialized 100% coverage is the right solution but something beyond $5K tax credits needs to be done.
2. Serious Energy program. Encourage alternate fuels etc. Not sure what the solution is but with gas back down to < $2, I am concerned this will no longer be the focus.
3. Stabilize Iraq. Militarily for sure, not sure about politically. Refocus on Afghanistan and get that SOB (preferably dead).
4. Improve world opinion of the US. I think Hillary and Bill and accomplish this!

I guess I should have added a fifth ...

5. Stabilized and peacefull Middle East.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess I should have added a fifth ...

5. Stabilized and peacefull Middle East.

You might as well ask for world peace, an end to hunger and poverty and, heck, ponies for everyone.

[ISiddiqui]

Well he is an Obama supporter, I'm sure he already has

[flere-imsaho]

I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.

No winged unicorns in stock?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'll have you know I put in my order for a pony before the election. If I don't get one by January 21st, I'm going to be pissed.

I remembered that. Problem is they gave away the ponies to the financial execs, auto execs, labor leaders and those that got bad mortgages. No pony for you.

[flere-imsaho]

ECONOMY

Hopes:

• U.S. out of recession by early 2010.
• DOW back over 10,000 by 2011.
• The Obama team figures out how to get Wall Street to finally resolve all the bad debts out there (the weakness of the American economy isn't addressed in full until this is, in my opinion).
• In 2009, an Obama "reconstruction" plan passes Congress that is designed to rebuild the U.S. for the 21st century. It includes:
  • Substantial investment in R&D efforts for "21st century" industries, such as technology, biotechnology, pharma, green technologies, etc....
  • Infrastructure upgrades (roads, rail, ATC, internet backbone)
• Better regulatory powers, and a will to use them intelligently, at the SEC.

Predictions:

• U.S. out of recession by late 2010.
• DOW goes back over 10,000 during primary season for 2012 elections.
• Wall Street never really figures out how much bad debt is out there, but by late 2010 there's enough faith that the "Big 3" (Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America) have cleared the bulk of the liabilities that the country starts to lift out of its 2-3 year malaise in the financial markets.
• Chrysler fails and its parts are bought up by competitors (foreign & domestic). Ford ends up needing that line of credit, but turns out OK. GM is kept on life support by the government through 2010 and restructuring starts to pay off in 2011.
• A short-term stimulus package of tax breaks and generalized pork is passed in early 2009.
• A long-term "reconstruction" package is finally passed in mid/late-2009 and demonstrates the first serious test of Obama's influence over Congress. Relations are soured between the White House and the Democratic leadership in Congress over the latter's lack of willingness to pass legislation over the objections of vocal minorities amongst the GOP in Congress. This drives the liberal blogosphere absolutely ballistic. The "reconstruction" package contains some forward-looking initiatives, but is also at least half pork.

SUPREME COURT

Hopes: Stevens (age: 88, reason: age), Ginsburg (75, health), Scalia (72, age), Kennedy (72, age), Breyer (70, age), and Souter (69, age/desire to retire) all retire and are replaced by young (around 50), brilliant, accomplished and just-left-of-center progressive justices. Furthermore, Thomas experiences an epiphany and changes from a reliable but incomprehensible right-wing vote to a reliable but still incomprehensible left-wing vote. Roberts decides he doesn't want to be remembered as a Chief Justice who was always in the minority and so migrates to the center. Alito doesn't change, and becomes a bitter, disillusioned man.

Predictions: Early retirements for Stevens, Ginsburg and Souter. Easy confirmations for replacements who are young (50s), left-of-center but not radical, and possess very good credentials. Later retirements for Kennedy and Breyer. More difficult confirmation for replacements due to aforementioned ineptitude of Democratic leadership in Congress and increasing hostility between them and Obama White House. Eventual replacements are confirmed with good majorities (think Roberts) and are still young (50s), left-of-center but not radical, and possess very good credentials. In these later confirmations especially, the influence of "moderate" Republicans such as John McCain and Olympia Snowe are significant.

FOREIGN POLICY

Hopes:

• Majority of U.S. troops out of Iraq by 2010 in advance of current plan due to unexpected improvement in security and political stability.
• Resurgent Afghanistani government and invigorated Pakistani administration, with U.S. and NATO backing, rout Taliban in border regions. Afghanistan secure enough by early 2012 to start withdrawing U.S. troops.
• During the above operations OBL is mortally wounded by shrapnel but lives for a few days before dying. His body is discovered by Pakistani troops who overrun his position. Later, a video of OBL during his last days taken by a lapsed militant surfaces and shows a mentally enfeebled, ranting, humiliated, and afraid OBL. Negative impact to AQ recruitment & fundraising is significant.
• The Obama administration manages to engage again-Russian President Putin on a number of military and economic concords, with the result being a less-aggressive Russia and a more open state-influenced quasi-free market state.
• The Obama administration convinces China to institute real regulatory oversight for its factories so they stop sending deadly toys, drugs and food to the U.S.
• Obama & Clinton manage, in 2011, to broker a "Good Friday"-type in Israel/Palestine.
• Responding to backchannel overtures by the U.S., the Iranian Supreme Council do not support Ahmadinejad in the 2009 Presidential Election, and instead allow a "reformer" (by Iranian standards) to win the Presidency. By 2012, in response to further backchannel overtures by the U.S., the Iranians wind up their nuclear program and begin to open up their society.

Predictions:

• U.S. troops leave Iraq on schedule in 2011 but Iraqi state remains tenuous and violence/security comes and goes.
• A renewed emphasis on Afghanistan pushes the Taliban back and the situation by 2012 is a three-way on-and-off conflict between U.S.-supported Afghanistanis, the Taliban, and Pakistan in the border regions.
• OBL is found dead by U.S. special forces. The U.S. claims he died of renal failure. Most of the Islamic world feels it's likely the soldiers killed him. No one ever finds out the truth.
• Obama's charisma on the world stage isolates again-Russian President Vladimir Putin, who continues to intimidate neighbors and run Russia as a quasi-authoritarian state. Despite this, the Obama administration, through backchannel diplomacy, is able to engage Russia more often at the U.N. Security Council on various issues and is able, more than once, to play Russia off against China.
• Nothing significant happens in relations with China.
• Obama gets Iran to re-commit to a serious weapons inspection program, but there continue to be problems.
• Following what's essentially a pitched war between Israel and Hamas in 2009 and 2010, Obama & Clinton broker a "cessation" agreement between the two (who have, by this time, very war-weary populaces) in 2011. It doesn't solve anything permanently, but gets the violence to stop and sets the stage for long-term shuttle talks that are still underway in 2013.

POLITICS

Hopes: Obama and Biden (Biden especially) work deftly with Democratic leaders in Congress to develop cohesive democratic voting majorities that deliver lots of progressive legislation. A thoroughly demoralized GOP loses even more seats in Congress in 2010, as the Democrats gain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Predictions: Democratic leadership in Congress continues to be weak and division in Democratic ranks is exploited by activist Republicans in Congress (more noticeable in the House) who attack legislation relentlessly and mercilessly. An Obama White House becomes increasingly frustrated with Democratic leadership and tension increases greatly in 2009 and 2010. In 2010 the GOP gains seats in the House, and many seats are won by activist "social conservatives". Despite this the Democrats pick up just enough seats in the Senate to go over 60, but the outlook for preserving those gains in 2012 looks especially bleak.


I could probably go on, but those are probably my major thoughts. Oh, and we all get ponies (hope), er, a 0.001% tax rebate (prediction).

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

No winged unicorns in stock?

Winged unicorns are a lot more work than you think. The upkeep on that horn, for instance, gets expensive. So no, just a pony for me.

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

I remembered that. Problem is they gave away the ponies to the financial execs, auto execs, labor leaders and those that got bad mortgages. No pony for you.

Well, crap.