The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[RedKingGold]

Think Halladay likes having a little bit of run support?

[Neuqua]

Mark Buehrle may have made the best play by a pitcher that I have ever seen.

[DaddyTorgo]

given the market for pitchers that's not insane money for a beckett. particularly given what you'd have to pay to replace him...certainly more than that judging by what they gave lackey.

and with bucholz, bowden and kelly they may feel they have good cost-control in young pitching right now.

[dacman]

Mike Lincoln has an arm like a leg. Send him packing.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

TOR-TEX has some good pitching, I suggest checking it out.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Or not.

[Lathum]

jinx

[Lathum]

That Pujols kid is pretty good.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Admittedly, outside of Red Sox/Yankees/Rays my AL predictions are probably shit. I really only pay attention to the NL East, and I get some parallel information from other teams in the NL.

Seriously though, wouldn't it be a major upset if the ALCS winner wasn't the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rays?

I am an Angels fan, so keep that in mind, but I don't think it would be a major upset for them to be there over any team in the AL except the Yanks. They're still more talented than the Rays, IMO (people just go gaga over the Rays' kids), and they're roughly even with the Red Sox.

If I had to rank the top teams in the AL, in tiers, in my mind, it would like something like this:

Yankees

Red Sox
Angels

Rays
Twins
White Sox
Mariners
Rangers

Orioles
Royals
A's

Indians
Jays

In my mind it wouldn't be a stretch for any of these teams to go up one tier or down one tier. Going up or down more than that would be a surprise, though, IMO.

I think the Rangers, Rays, Orioles and Royals have enough terrific young talent that they could each move up a tier in the very near future, but they are all a little too young right now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

given the market for pitchers that's not insane money for a beckett. particularly given what you'd have to pay to replace him...certainly more than that judging by what they gave lackey.

and with bucholz, bowden and kelly they may feel they have good cost-control in young pitching right now.

I disagree. That was a dumb deal. Red Sox should have dealt Beckett away for more young pitching at midseason, or a younger star pitcher. Giving big money deals to pitchers in their 30s--even early 30s--is bad business. Lackey was bad business, too. It won't burn the Sox this year, but by the end of those deals, they'll regret them, just like they came to regret Lowell and Lugo and even Manny.

FTR, though, the Beckett deal isn't nearly as dumb as the Lackey deal. I guess if you went all in on that one, it makes more sense to do this than to compound the Lackey error by just letting Beckett go.

[k0ruptr]

Buerhle Looking fantastic to start the season. 7 shut out innings 3 hits allowed. I love Mark Buehrle.

[Scoobz0202]

ew. grand slam cards. ew.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

ew. grand slam cards. ew.

pujols?

[Big Fo]

A shitty start to the season for Derek Lowe.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

pujols?

Molina

[Lathum]

Mets take care of business behind Santana. I'm now going to watch the gem that id Zach Greinke

[k0ruptr]

Alex rios! woo. home run, diving catch. yay!

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Heyward.

[Scoobz0202]

Somebody tell me about this Heyward. My lord.

[Easy Mac]

Jason Heyward = God, only if God could hit the ball 500 feet.

[GrantDawg]

Love me some J-Hey kid. Braves are lurking, people!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mets take care of business behind Santana. I'm now going to watch the gem that id Zach Greinke

you realize if greinke takes care of business you're in fantasy-trouble in our H2H matchup...

[Big Fo]

That was awesome. Crazy first inning of the season, Braves give up three in the top only to score six in the bottom half. A walk, three bloop hits, a chopper, then Heyward absolutely fucking slammed one in his first MLB at bat.

[k0ruptr]

Rangers Walk off win.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you realize if greinke takes care of business you're in fantasy-trouble in our H2H matchup...

I have him in my money league.

[Lathum]

Zambrano is not good.

[Big Fo]

Zambrano is melting down for the Cubs, an awful throw allows Prado to score from first on Chipper's groundout then McCann takes him deep on the next pitch.

8-3 Braves in the bottom of the second, hopefully that will be enough for Lowe.

[Coffee Warlord]

And he's been pulled already. Eesh.

[Crapshoot]

Jason Heyward = wow.

To be fair to Zambrano, that inning was surreal - pop-up, walk, slicing single, pop-up, pop-up, double-play ball that just missed, and then Heyward.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have him in my money league.

aaah

[k0ruptr]

Home runs are flying out of Atlanta like its New Yankee stadium...

[Coffee Warlord]

Cubs making a game of it again, at least. Aramis jacks a 2 run homer to make it 8-5

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I disagree. That was a dumb deal. Red Sox should have dealt Beckett away for more young pitching at midseason, or a younger star pitcher. Giving big money deals to pitchers in their 30s--even early 30s--is bad business. Lackey was bad business, too. It won't burn the Sox this year, but by the end of those deals, they'll regret them, just like they came to regret Lowell and Lugo and even Manny.

FTR, though, the Beckett deal isn't nearly as dumb as the Lackey deal. I guess if you went all in on that one, it makes more sense to do this than to compound the Lackey error by just letting Beckett go.

I disagree as well.

Stolen unabashadly from maufman over on SOSH:

This time, Beckett was negotiating from a position of strength. Consider:

-- There are three top-flight pitchers hitting the free-agent market next winter: Beckett, Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb. Lee and Webb both will begin this season on the DL.

-- Whatever Cliff Lee does this season, he'll get more than he's worth next winter. The smartest guys in the room don't set fair market value, and Lee will find a team that won't adequately discount his numbers this season for Safeco Field and that terrific defense behind him. (I think he'll end up with the Cubs, but that's purely a hunch.)

-- The Sox don't know what the inside of Brandon Webb's shoulder looks like. The only reasonable supposition is that Webb's shoulder will be at least as big a risk nine months from now as Beckett's is today, even if Webb comes back quickly and pitches well this season.

-- The MFY will sign at least one of those three free-agent SPs. MFY fans remember what Beckett did to them in 2003, so unless Beckett implodes this season, signing him would be a huge hit with the NYC tabloids. He would also likely be the preferred target of Uday and Qusay. Neither of those factors is decisive, but taken together they're at least a tiebreaker in Cashman's analysis.

-- A best-case projection of the Sox' pitching situation in 2011 without Beckett would have Lester-Lackey-Buchholz as a great top 3, Dice-K as a solid 4th starter, Michael Bowden ready to step in as the 5th starter, and Tim Wakefield as a question mark. There would be no organizational depth: Casey Kelly and the other young arms won't arrive before 2012, and Tazawa won't throw a competitive pitch until sometime next year. So, absent a Beckett extension, the Sox would have had to play in the free-agent pitching market next winter. Mid-rotation SPs have been the most overpriced commodity on the free-agent market for at least a decade now; that won't change overnight. Therefore, the Sox' options would have been go big (target the top guys) or go home (go with the same strategy that gave us Penny and Smoltz a year ago). Even in a best-case scenario, there would be a strong argument to sign a front-line pitcher next winter; with anything less than a best-case scenario, the Sox would practically be compelled to bid.

So, looking at Beckett's two big contract decisions together, I see a guy who is relatively risk-averse when it comes to his money. That's not what I'd expect from his on-field persona, but I guess it shouldn't be surprising that he's a different person between the lines than he is when making decisions about his personal finances.

[Izulde]

Love that 6-0 opening day win for White Sox.

[Chief Rum]

Make sure I understand...they're reasoning it's a smart deal because signing Beckett to this deal now is better than letting him go to free agency, where you would either pay a ton more to retain him, overpay for Cliff Lee or take a big risk on Webb's shoulder?

I suppose if you convince yourself those are your only options, than yes, it's a good deal. But those aren't the Sox' only options. They poopoo a Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice K rotation a bit, but that's actually a very good rotation at least through 2012 (which is when Lackey will start to really suck and Red Sox fans will start to really hate him). Wakefield seems to be going on forever, but even if he doesn't, and the Sox have to go back to bargain basement for that fifth option next year, the problem with Penny-Smoltz last year wasn't that the Sox went bargain basement, it was that they made their bargain basement options Penny & Smoltz. All they have to do is wait out the market and sign the best guy left. That's how the Angels got Abreu last year and Pineiro this year.

Now, if the Sox hadn't spent all that $$ on Lackey, a deal like this for Beckett makes sense. After all, one risky contract for a terrific talent is acceptable, especially for a big market team. Two huge long term contracts for SPs in their 30s? And both with injury issues in the past (albeit, nothing like shoulder or elbow reconstruction)? Way, way too risky, and especially while blocking a good young talent like Buchholz.

Like I was saying before, instead the Sox should have created a "Halladay" market for Beckett, dealt him at the TD for more minor league uber talent for the next cycle of Sox greatness, and then spent that money saved partially on a decent fifth option, elevate Buchholz, and the rest on the big bat they should have been trying to secure this past offseason.

As for the MFY, if I were a Red Sox fan and they signed Beckett to a huge deal, I would be dancing in the streets. Or did you notice I wasn't exactly broken up when Lackey signed with the Sox?

[tucker rocky]

There is hope Pirate fans, 11-5 win over the Dodgers, not in last place.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Like I was saying before, instead the Sox should have created a "Halladay" market for Beckett, dealt him at the TD for more minor league uber talent for the next cycle of Sox greatness, and then spent that money saved partially on a decent fifth option, elevate Buchholz, and the rest on the big bat they should have been trying to secure this past offseason.

As for the MFY, if I were a Red Sox fan and they signed Beckett to a huge deal, I would be dancing in the streets. Or did you notice I wasn't exactly broken up when Lackey signed with the Sox?

You're under the - possibly mistaken - impression that the Red Sox are in a market that would accept a move like that. If the Sox are in contention and they try to Ricciardi the market for Beckett, if they succeed, they'll piss off the market. If they fail and he walks, they'll lose him after the season anyway, and wind up with egg on their face.

The only way pulling a "Halladay" works out well is if they get a quality ML starter back along with the prospect haul so that they can sell the fanbase on it being a move both now and for the future. How many teams are there out there that would sell the farm for the chance to upgrade their #1/#2 guys? I say "upgrade" because I have a hard time believing the Sox would settle for a #4/#5 type arm to slot in Beckett's spot along with the prospect haul.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And cue the cries for expanded instant replay after the missed call in the Cubs-Braves game.

In this case I'm not sure that anything other than replay would have gotten the call right (diving catch in the OF, ball pops out upon landing but the angle was such that the umpire even in position likely never saw the ball come lose.) but at the same time how many replays a year would be needed on those plays & how much bitching about the length of games would we end up with if they were all reviewed?

[tucker rocky]

I think the Cubs got hosed on that call, ball wasn't in the glove long enough to be considered a catch.

[Big Fo]

I thought Piniella would go crazy after that call. Two outs, nobody on instead of no outs, runners on first and second in a three run game. That was huge, it's not like Lowe has been great today.

[tucker rocky]

I agree though, instant replay only for questionable homers.
Bad or missed calls by the umpires is part of the game.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

You're under the - possibly mistaken - impression that the Red Sox are in a market that would accept a move like that. If the Sox are in contention and they try to Ricciardi the market for Beckett, if they succeed, they'll piss off the market. If they fail and he walks, they'll lose him after the season anyway, and wind up with egg on their face.

The only way pulling a "Halladay" works out well is if they get a quality ML starter back along with the prospect haul so that they can sell the fanbase on it being a move both now and for the future. How many teams are there out there that would sell the farm for the chance to upgrade their #1/#2 guys? I say "upgrade" because I have a hard time believing the Sox would settle for a #4/#5 type arm to slot in Beckett's spot along with the prospect haul.

If the fanbase won't allow the Red Sox to make the move that is smartest for the team, than the fanbase is being a detriment to the future of the organization.

That said, I don't think the Red Sox need to worry about that. As long as a winner is on the field (and if they do what I suggested, they would continue to win), fans would show up, even if the Sox got a #4/#5 back (although I suspect it would more likely be a #3 or so).

If you project ahead, which NL contenders could use an ace and which will have someone they would be willing to deal out of the #3 or #4 spot? Assuming the Sox will refuse to deal with an AL team, I could definitely see Billingsley (LA), Sanchez (SF), Maine (NYM), Hudson (ATL), Silva (CHC), Davis (MIL) or Happ (PHI) coming back to them, and that's not too bad. Especially if they get a big bat than as well from elsewhere and can still throw out Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice K in a playoff rotation.

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I am definitely jealous. I've never been to Opening Day and this one would have been a neat one for the Nats

SI

I've been to every Washington Nationals home opener, and the opening day game in their debut season (2005).

2008 was the best -- it was 40 degrees and sprinkling rain, but the walk-off by Zimmerman in the new stadium is hard to beat.

Today was rough -- 78 degrees, directly in the sun, with an 11-1 loss in a stadium that was, at best, 50-50 with Phillies fans (probably more Phillies fans than Nats fans).

[Chief Rum]

Keep in mind--the Sox did essentially this in 2008, albeit with their best hitter instead of pitcher. They traded Manny at the point of his lowest value and when they essentially had to, given how he was acting in the clubhouse and in his walk year. They didn't get some #8 hitter back (the equivalent of the #4/#5 SP for Beckett), they got a solid bat in Bay. They then proceeded to get within a Game 7 win of returning to the World Series. And even another year of Bay. And Manny was a player Sox fans had a lot of passion about (albeit, not always positive passion).

Not saying this won;t work out for them--Beckett's a very good pitcher when healthy. But history suggests signing two guys like this to longterm contracts don't stand a good chance of ending well. And while dealing Beckett might not have been the most popular move, it certainly is the move that stands a better chance of serving the team best in the long run.

[CleBrownsfan]

Way to go Tribe - it's going to be a long long summer

[molson]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Make sure I understand...they're reasoning it's a smart deal because signing Beckett to this deal now is better than letting him go to free agency, where you would either pay a ton more to retain him, overpay for Cliff Lee or take a big risk on Webb's shoulder?

I suppose if you convince yourself those are your only options, than yes, it's a good deal. But those aren't the Sox' only options. They poopoo a Lester-Lackey-Buchholz-Dice K rotation a bit, but that's actually a very good rotation at least through 2012 (which is when Lackey will start to really suck and Red Sox fans will start to really hate him). Wakefield seems to be going on forever, but even if he doesn't, and the Sox have to go back to bargain basement for that fifth option next year, the problem with Penny-Smoltz last year wasn't that the Sox went bargain basement, it was that they made their bargain basement options Penny & Smoltz. All they have to do is wait out the market and sign the best guy left. That's how the Angels got Abreu last year and Pineiro this year.

Now, if the Sox hadn't spent all that $$ on Lackey, a deal like this for Beckett makes sense. After all, one risky contract for a terrific talent is acceptable, especially for a big market team. Two huge long term contracts for SPs in their 30s? And both with injury issues in the past (albeit, nothing like shoulder or elbow reconstruction)? Way, way too risky, and especially while blocking a good young talent like Buchholz.

Like I was saying before, instead the Sox should have created a "Halladay" market for Beckett, dealt him at the TD for more minor league uber talent for the next cycle of Sox greatness, and then spent that money saved partially on a decent fifth option, elevate Buchholz, and the rest on the big bat they should have been trying to secure this past offseason.

As for the MFY, if I were a Red Sox fan and they signed Beckett to a huge deal, I would be dancing in the streets. Or did you notice I wasn't exactly broken up when Lackey signed with the Sox?

I can see where you're coming from, but there's not really a lot out there in terms of starting pitching. The Red Sox would be extremely lucky if any of the prospects they got turned out be as good at Beckett. That's a trade you make if you're desperate, where you have no choice but to hope that something emerges from a pool of prospects.

It's only a rare situation where the Red Sox need to be a seller, and I don't think Beckett presents one of those situations.

[tucker rocky]

Cubs are still hibernating in Arizona.

[Chief Rum]

It's possible I am just more pessimistic on Beckett than others, but, IMO, he's still riding his 2003 and 2007 postseason performances and his strong 2007 regular season. Since then, he has had injury and inconsistency issues, and he has never been all that consistent. But the view of him is still of being that big time #1, dominant pitcher. I don't think he's that pitcher anymore. He's a good pitcher, but I don't see him on that level. The Red Sox would then be smart to move him before it becomes obvious to everyone else.

All that said, the move I think that kills them is the Lackey deal. If Lackey's not being paid what he is, I don't bat an eye at the Beckett deal. Beckett's a better bet than Lackey. But since the Lackey is done and sealed, it makes it a questionable move to also commit that kind of cash to another pitcher.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Mets take care of business behind Santana. I'm now going to watch the gem that id Zach Greinke

He wasn't really sharp but went 6 IP with only 1 ER. Unfortunately, you lost the win because of the steaming pile of crap that is the Royals bullpen

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by tucker rocky

There is hope Pirate fans, 11-5 win over the Dodgers, not in last place.

Hooray! Only 81 wins to go to break the streak

SI