2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Nope, Sal Perez.

I'll take that too.

[lungs]

How's Ned Yost working out in Royals land? I was always a fan of the guy in Milwaukee and thought he'd be a good fit in KC.

[sterlingice]

Wow- Royals lock him in with little risk. Basically bought out his cost controlled years for 5yr/$7M and then 3 option years for $19.5M. Even if he sucks and they have to cut him, he costs them next to nothing.

Ok, so he was going to get paid $1M the next two years pre-arb. That means as long as he does better than $2M per year after that, they've come out ahead. And what happens if he's actually, you know, good? Then the savings are enormous.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by lungs

How's Ned Yost working out in Royals land? I was always a fan of the guy in Milwaukee and thought he'd be a good fit in KC.

I think the consensus is that he's doing a good job of helping the young guys develop. No one's really sure if he's the long term answer but he's a very good fit for a young, building team.

SI

[lungs]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think the consensus is that he's doing a good job of helping the young guys develop. No one's really sure if he's the long term answer but he's a very good fit for a young, building team.

SI

Pretty much the same in Milwaukee. He didn't handle the road bumps that came with becoming a better team but he was always a learner and wouldn't count on him repeating the same mistakes the second time around. That said, he'll drive some people nuts tactically.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

FWIW, my wife, who has paid no attention whatsoever to baseball in general and wouldn't know Ryan Braun from Eva Braun, is a chemist in a hospital lab. I asked her about urinalysis (we are so romantic) and without even mentioning the specifics of the case she was pretty adamant that an extra day would fuck up more or less any test she could think of. I asked her how long an unrefrigerated sample could go without being tested, how a sample would maintain integrity overnight, how much different refrigeration schemes retard the bacterial formation process, etc.

After hearing her responses, I'm 100% certain that if the Drug Testing policy mandates that a sample be there within a certain time, then that time frame was chosen because it's the outside edge of sample reliability. If a sample is delayed beyond that time, there's NO chance it's valid at any confidence level. As my wife put it, "After three days of sitting on a counter, there's a decent chance you'd show up pregnant using certain tests." There are tests my wife does that have to be performed no more than two hours after collection. She said she doesn't know of any tests that would produce proper results if the sample took more than 24 hours to get to the lab before being frozen. She also indicated that if the sample were frozen at the point of collection, that it would need to be kept in a non-frost-free environment, so even if the courier took it home and put it in his freezer for the weekend to retard bacteria growth, the sample would be considered tainted anyway.

Bottom line is, things grow in your piss, and they grow exponentially, and no matter what the intention was, if they say they're going to test within X hours, it's because at X+1 hours, there's too much stuff growing in that piss that wasn't there when they took the sample. If the sample was tested a day late, then there is no way to calibrate what the sample shows and that's all there is to it.

Pulling this from the last page. I had this exact same conversation with my wife (who's an RN at a drug treatment facility) because my memory from working at drug rehab places in college was that the validity of a sample was seriously degraded after 24 hours. If we didn't keep it refrigerated and couldn't get it to the lab within 24 hours, standard protocol was to toss it.

She agreed 100% with your wife and wanted to know why the fuck this was such a big deal. She said "It's bad medicine and bad science. Why are they even debating it? Just have the guy piss in a cup again and do the test right."

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Drake

Pulling this from the last page. I had this exact same conversation with my wife (who's an RN at a drug treatment facility) because my memory from working at drug rehab places in college was that the validity of a sample was seriously degraded after 24 hours. If we didn't keep it refrigerated and couldn't get it to the lab within 24 hours, standard protocol was to toss it.

She agreed 100% with your wife and wanted to know why the fuck this was such a big deal. She said "It's bad medicine and bad science. Why are they even debating it? Just have the guy piss in a cup again and do the test right."

Because the witch hunt mentality there is when it comes to steroids doesn't care if a few innocents get thrown under the bus so long as they get a few real users and the process of finding users is never questioned.

No amount of science can hold off the pitch forks at this point. People have already made up their mind.

[Scoobz0202]

I'm reading the Molina was extended by the Cards. 5/70-75.

I haven't read much about it but my initial reaction is "what." Am I not giving him enough credit? I know he is a good defensive catcher, but that just seems excessive.

[sterlingice]

Much happier about Sal Perez contract after seeing those numbers bandied about

SI

[molson]

Originally Posted by lungs

Because the witch hunt mentality there is when it comes to steroids doesn't care if a few innocents get thrown under the bus so long as they get a few real users and the process of finding users is never questioned.

No amount of science can hold off the pitch forks at this point. People have already made up their mind.

There's some witch hunting but there's also holes in the story. I'm content to look at it this way and move on - If they seal the vacuum samples before they mail them, and the seal preserves the sample for more than day, he's a cheater, and more annoyingly to me, a liar. If they don't, it's a corrupted test. I haven't seen anything conclusive on that, but the fact that his stated defense is that the tester spiked the sample, rather than just it was not reliable, is a pretty strong indication to me that that's his BEST defense (which isn't a good one). If it's as simple as "after 24 hours its never any good", why not just say that at press conference, and why not make that the public exoneration/defense? And why ship everything off to Canada, even if it's late Friday/Saturday and it won't get there until Monday?

[ISiddiqui]

No, it is merely the easiest defense - they violated the CBA.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

No, it is merely the easiest defense - they violated the CBA.

You're a lawyer, aren't you?

(Not a jab. That's actually a very smart way to tackle this issue from Braun's perspective, in my opinion.)

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

No, it is merely the easiest defense - they violated the CBA.

I'm just looking at guilt or innocence, the arbiters can make their own judgment calls based on the evidence they here. And there was no "violation", there's just a policy that lists what the tester "should" do, and with that info the arbiter can make the call whether Braun was using performance enhancing substances. And THAT'S the question, is Braun guilty of violating the drug policy. It's the classic defense attorney strategy to try to confuse the issue and make the question, "were the procedures followed perfectly?", but that's not the relevant question. It might be EVIDENCE to support an answer to the ultimate question, but it's not itself the question. (It's very similar to a criminal defense attorney trying to make the trial about whether the police officer did everything perfectly, which is great strategy).

But in any event, in his public plea of innocence, the one his lawyers probably prepared word for word, Braun is relying on a tampering allegation, and I think that's telling.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Drake

You're a lawyer, aren't you?

(Not a jab. That's actually a very smart way to tackle this issue from Braun's perspective, in my opinion.)

Guilty as charged .

And that's my point exactly. Go for the easiest thing to prove.

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Guilty as charged .

And that's my point exactly. Go for the easiest thing to prove.

That makes sense. If you're a defense attorney you attack the shit out of that tester and his sloppiness for sure (but personally, I'd have left out the tampering allegations, even if I knew the sample would be good for 6 months sealed.)

[ISiddiqui]

But was it properly sealed?

And do you want your client speaking on things that you may not be able to prove (it doesn't matter if the other side can't prove the contrary)?

[molson]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

But was it properly sealed?

And do you want your client speaking on things that you may not be able to prove (it doesn't matter if the other side can't prove the contrary)?

I have no idea if it was sealed in a manner that preserves it more than a day, my opinion on the guilt/innocence of this would come down to that alone. Since I'm not sure of that, I'm just looking at the tampering accusations as evidence that Braun and his people knew it was sealed and that's the best innocence argument they have. So to me, that makes him look guilty, but I'm sure others have different takes on it and his people clearly aren't dumb. And I'd have a big ethical problem about publicly accusing someone of a serious crime without support, and even strongly implying such a thing. I mean at least in my jurisdictions and probably most, defense attorneys aren't randomly accusing police officers of planting evidence just because its theoretically possible that they could. I think that's a combination of ethics and the fact that the jury wouldn't like it. Here, it was maybe hidden enough that the public isn't going to turn on just because of that, but if you read the transcript, that's clearly what he's doing.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm just looking at guilt or innocence, the arbiters can make their own judgment calls based on the evidence they here. And there was no "violation", there's just a policy that lists what the tester "should" do, and with that info the arbiter can make the call whether Braun was using performance enhancing substances. And THAT'S the question, is Braun guilty of violating the drug policy. It's the classic defense attorney strategy to try to confuse the issue and make the question, "were the procedures followed perfectly?", but that's not the relevant question. It might be EVIDENCE to support an answer to the ultimate question, but it's not itself the question. (It's very similar to a criminal defense attorney trying to make the trial about whether the police officer did everything perfectly, which is great strategy).

But in any event, in his public plea of innocence, the one his lawyers probably prepared word for word, Braun is relying on a tampering allegation, and I think that's telling.

Big difference between confusing a jury and confusing an arbitrator, the former is much, much easier.

Can't we just let all the facts play out before rushing to judgment? There probably is more to this story which will leak out over time.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

I'm reading the Molina was extended by the Cards. 5/70-75.

I haven't read much about it but my initial reaction is "what." Am I not giving him enough credit? I know he is a good defensive catcher, but that just seems excessive.

He is a 4 WAR player playing in his prime years. Seems like a decent deal for both sides. Cards may have overpaid just a bit but I am sure they like the comfort of having the best defensive catcher in baseball locked up.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Can't we just let all the facts play out before rushing to judgment? There probably is more to this story which will leak out over time.

What? I'm ready to pretend like it never happened. I definitely don't want this to drag out any longer.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

He is a 4 WAR player playing in his prime years. Seems like a decent deal for both sides. Cards may have overpaid just a bit but I am sure they like the comfort of having the best defensive catcher in baseball locked up.

Was he still the best defensive catcher last year? I know he didn't throw out near the rate of baserunners that he has before. Fielding metrics really throw me for a loop, though, so I can't verify for myself.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Was he still the best defensive catcher last year? I know he didn't throw out near the rate of baserunners that he has before. Fielding metrics really throw me for a loop, though, so I can't verify for myself.

His fielding was down last year. According to the metics he was a 0.6 DWAR last year down from 1.6 DWAR(6th in the league) the previous year. He only threw out 29 percent of the runners last year as well which was down from 49 percent the previous year.

I dont think there is an issue as he looked very impressive defensively in the post season but the defensive numbers did fall off quite a bit last year.

[Scoobz0202]

Not to mention he is a career .707 OPS hitter. Seems risky and overpay to me.

We'll have to see.

[Chief Rum]

I guess you consider how well the staff has been performing with him behind the plate. I don't know those numbers, but I know St. Louis generally has a very strong rotation. While the pitchers should get most of the credit, clearly Molina is doing a good job handling them as well.

That said, I agree, my gut says that's an awfully big deal for a defensive specialist.

In semi-related news and one which will be rejoiced by sabermetric fans everywhere, Bengie Molina has officially retired. Thanks for 2002, Bengie.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In semi-related news and one which will be rejoiced by sabermetric fans everywhere, Bengie Molina has officially retired.

I guess he never was able to physically recover from hitting a triple (as part of the cycle) and later stealing a base during his 2010 stint with the Rangers.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In semi-related news and one which will be rejoiced by sabermetric fans everywhere, Bengie Molina has officially retired. Thanks for 2002, Bengie.

I know this was just a throw-away comment, but it's crap like this that really irks me, because it attempts to perpetuate this myth that stat-driven analysis goes beyond the numbers to take personal stances for and against players.

The player is what his numbers say he is. If the dude wants to play until he's 64, more power to him. If anything, it's the team that gets cut on for choosing to employ a player who has demonstrated he's worth far less than your average AAA player. It's nothing personal against the player.

/end unnecessary rant

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I know this was just a throw-away comment, but it's crap like this that really irks me, because it attempts to perpetuate this myth that stat-driven analysis goes beyond the numbers to take personal stances for and against players.

The player is what his numbers say he is. If the dude wants to play until he's 64, more power to him. If anything, it's the team that gets cut on for choosing to employ a player who has demonstrated he's worth far less than your average AAA player. It's nothing personal against the player.

/end unnecessary rant

No, it's an acknowledgment that certain players are more efficient than others, and that that quality is highly valued by fans of the game who utilize sabermetrics as the measure of that efficiency. Those fans will enjoy the quality of play of those players better than the inefficient ones, of which Molina was a prime example.

So it's not a stretch, whether it irks you or not, that there are fans of sabermetrics who are not unhappy to see Bengie Molina retire.

[Ksyrup]

Certainly, there will be fans of whatever team that would be very happy he has retired rather than be signed b y their team to waste a roster spot. "Rejoicing" that he's out of the game? No, I don't think so. Even the occasional jokes about his value as a player don't cut to the personal level in that way.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Certainly, there will be fans of whatever team that would be very happy he has retired rather than be signed b y their team to waste a roster spot. "Rejoicing" that he's out of the game? No, I don't think so. Even the occasional jokes about his value as a player don't cut to the personal level in that way.

I'm sorry, but there are elements of the metric proponents that do actively hate certain players. They rejoice in their failures, and actually get angry when they perform above their expectations. It is not all, or most, but some very vocal a-holes.

[Ksyrup]

I guess I've just miraculously happened to avoid those writers.

[Ksyrup]

On the Yadi contract, FWIW:

Dan Szymborski ‏ @DSzymborski
Yadi had a wonderful year and is a great glove, but 5/75 really sounds too high. I'll see what ZiPS thinks.

Dan Szymborski ‏ @DSzymborski
Nope, ZiPS says 5/75.3 markets cost right now for his 2013-2017.

[Arles]

This just came up on ESPN:

Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun case -- sample collector says he followed protocols - ESPN

A man identifying himself as the collector who took Ryan Braun's urine samples last fall said he followed the same protocol with the Milwaukee Brewers slugger as he had with hundreds of previous samples.

In an email sent Tuesday to ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, Dino Laurenzi Jr., said he issued the statement "to set the record straight" about his role in testing Braun, whose 50-game suspension under baseball's drug policy was overturned Thursday.

Laurenzi said that at the time of the test, he obtained a signature from the NL MVP, stipulating that the samples were capped and sealed in his presence.

Another source says:

Laurenzi said he has been a collector for Comprehensive Drug Testing since 2005, conducting more than 600 collections since then, in addition to postseason collections for five major league teams.

"I followed the same procedure in collecting Mr. Braun's sample as I did in the hundreds of other samples I collected under the program," Laurenzi said of his collection of Braun's urine samples on Oct. 1.

"I sealed the bottles containing Mr. Braun's A and B samples with specially numbered, tamper-resistant seals, and Mr. Braun signed a form certifying, among other things, that the specimens were capped and sealed in his presence and that the specimen identification numbers on the top of the form matched those on the seals."

Although MLB officials would not comment on the record, sources told ESPN legal analyst Lester Munson they are still convinced that the sample tested came from Braun, and that the positive test result was correct. They emphasized that the FedEx package that arrived at the Montreal laboratory handling the test was sealed three times with tamper-proof seals -- one on the box, one on a plastic bag inside the box, and again on the vial that contained the urine.

I feel like this guy is being thrown under the bus. Regardless of when the sample got there, if it was sealed it should have been fine. It seems like this is akin to a guy caught stealing something but being let off because he didn't have his Miranda rights read to him properly.

If I were Braun, I wouldn't stick my chest out and act like I've been exonerated completely. I'd thank the heavens that this technicality exists and move on.

[Ksyrup]

That's the thing that bothers me about this - Braun taking shots at this guy insinuating that the sample was tampered with. It's not really a victory for Braun if he just acknowledges the procedure might have been wrong, because everyone woudl still know the sample was positive. So he has to screw this guy over by suggesting, without any proof, that the sample must have been tampered with.

You can tell Braun's statement was heavily lawyered because he never mentions the guy's name or makes anything more than vague semi-accusations. Just terrible.

[DaddyTorgo]

Braun's a schmuck.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess I've just miraculously happened to avoid those writers.

They're not all writers.

[Ksyrup]

I'm sorry, basement dwellers.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That's the thing that bothers me about this - Braun taking shots at this guy insinuating that the sample was tampered with. It's not really a victory for Braun if he just acknowledges the procedure might have been wrong, because everyone woudl still know the sample was positive. So he has to screw this guy over by suggesting, without any proof, that the sample must have been tampered with.

You can tell Braun's statement was heavily lawyered because he never mentions the guy's name or makes anything more than vague semi-accusations. Just terrible.

Agreed. And what I find really funny is exactly what you say, Braun and his team clearly prepared this statement. It just seems over the top and reaching to jump forward to the tampering charge, rather than relying on the delay in testing that actually led the arbitrator to overturn the suspension.

You woulda thought a bunch of people who are all at least reasonably intelligent would realize how silly and weird this would all look and not go this way. Of course, I also think they shouldn't have said anything but a simple statement acknowledging the result and being happy about it, rather than doing a PC proclaiming Braun's "innocence".

[Ksyrup]

The person I'm more annoyed with in this whole thing is Aaron Rodgers, tbh. While I don't agree with what Braun did, I can at least understand it, since it's his livelihood at stake, and you expect someone to fight, etc. But Rodgers just comes off as a douchenozzle with his tweets claiming Braun's been exhonerated. i actually think less of Rodgers than I do Braun at this very moment.

[cartman]

Looks like there is another case of the Caribbean Magic Age Change happening. The Rangers just signed a top DR prospect, but evidently he has presented a couple of different dates of birth.

Baseball America | Blog | Baseball America Prospects Blog | Rangers’ Surprise Signing Draws Industry Scrutiny

[mckerney]

Expert says delay would not have altered Braun drug test - JSOnline

It would be unheard of for a urine sample such as the one given by Ryan Braun to have degraded into abnormally high levels of testosterone or into synthetic testosterone during the 44 hours that it sat in a refrigerator waiting to be shipped to a testing lab, according to an international expert on drug testing of athletes.

That leaves only a few other possibilities, said Gary Wadler, a physician and former official with the World Anti-Doping Agency.

One is that someone deliberately smeared a testosterone gel onto Braun's skin without his knowledge. Another is that someone tampered with Braun's urine sample.

"The (other possibility) is that he really doped," said Wadler, a professor of medicine at Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine in New York.

Wadler noted that the testosterone level in Braun's urine sample was exceedingly high.

In a normal sample the ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone is roughly one-to-one. Anything more than 4-1 is considered abnormal and triggers a second test. Braun's sample came in at 20-1 for the ratio between the two hormones. In addition, a separate test showed the presence of synthetic testosterone.

"Twenty-to-one is off the radar screen," Wadler said. "There is no way that sitting around for 44 hours would have resulted in elevated testosterone (or synthetic testosterone)."

Testosterone is the male hormone that helps build muscle.

Wadler said Braun won his appeal on a "procedural technicality," that his sample was kept for 44 hours in the refrigerator of the person who collected it before it was shipped to the testing lab, creating a chain of command question.

That raises the question of tampering.

Is it possible to tamper with the urine sample of a player during the major league baseball drug testing process?

That question was bandied about with great vigor after Braun suggested during a news conference last week that tampering was a possibility with his positive drug test that he had overturned with a successful appeal to a three-man arbitration panel.

The Office of Commissioner Bud Selig quickly responded to Braun's allegation, with executive vice president Rob Manfred saying, "Neither Mr. Braun nor the Major League Baseball Players Association contended in the grievance that his sample had been tampered with or produced any evidence of tampering."

The MLB drug program, which is jointly administered by the Commissioner's Office and the players union, is designed to prevent the possibility of tampering, by the collector or anyone else involved in the program. The process begins with the collector witnessing the player urinating in a cup, then dividing it into two separate samples marked "A" and "B."

Lids are placed on both cups with chain-of-custody tape used to seal both, which the player witnesses. The collector then must show the player that leakage is not possible with the samples.

Past cases

Wadler noted that Braun has been adamant in denying that he has ever used performance-enhancing drugs.

But so too have other athletes who eventually were found to have cheated, he said.

"We are all too familiar with impassioned statements whether it was (Olympic Games track star) Marion Jones or (baseball player) Rafael Palmeiro," Wadler noted.

In 2007, Jones pleaded guilty to lying to federal investigators about taking banned substances and was subsequently stripped of her Olympic medals by the International Olympic Committee.

In 2005, Baltimore Orioles player Palmeiro waved his finger in front of a congressional committee and insisted that he never used steroids, only to test positive a few months later.

Wadler added that Braun's case had similarities to that of cyclist Floyd Landis.

Landis was stripped of his 2006 Tour de France title after testing positive for high levels of testosterone - an 11-1 ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone - and synthetic testosterone.

For years he denied the allegation and spent $2 million in legal fees fighting it before finally admitting to it.

"He looked square into the camera and said, 'I did nothing wrong,' " Wadler said. "Of course, a period of time goes by and he says, 'You got me.' "

[lungs]

That expert assumes it was refrigerated, which the sample was not.

[Ksyrup]

AJ Burnett, orbital bone fracture from bunting a ball off his face, out indefinitely.

The Pirates suck so bad, they can cause a downturn in AJ Burnett's post-Yankees career. That's pretty impressive.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by lungs

That expert assumes it was refrigerated, which the sample was not.

Did I miss a report or something that definitively said it wasn't? Everything I heard said it was, but it was not terribly convincing.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Did I miss a report or something that definitively said it wasn't? Everything I heard said it was, but it was not terribly convincing.

From the guy who collected the sample:

Laurenzi said in the statement that he stored the samples in a "FedEx Clinic Pack in a Rubbermaid container in my office which is located in my basement. My basement office is sufficiently cool to store urine samples."

[jbergey22]

Braungate.

The more Braun says the more guilty he makes himself look. He should just say nothing more about it.

[lungs]

We've all pretty much made up our mind at this point. Short of the arbitrator's decision getting released, there's not much else to say by anybody and I thought Braun's lawyer speaking today was dumb.

He'll be loved in Milwaukee and vilified elsewhere, and with an eternity left on his contract (9 years?), nothing's going to change that until he starts playing like shit when he gets old. He many not put up MVP numbers like he did last year without Fielder behind him but it's not going to be some huge drop off like some steroid alarmists would have you believe.

I'm just ready for some games and talking shit to (mainly) Cardinal fans and likely this year Red fans. Of course there's always that chihuahua biting at your heels aka the Pittsburgh Pirates.

[mckerney]

Kids Of Milwaukee Forced To Look Up To Ryan Braun On Technicality | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Ksyrup]

I already knew this just based on things like the Howard contract and the Papelbon debacle (that's a great band name), but this just makes me sad to be a Phillies fan.

It's like being a Royals or Pirates fan earlier in the century, except they have enough money to overcome their willful ignorance. I mean, I'm cool with using various means to evaluate players, but they admit the only use they have for this stuff is to determine how other teams will value their players. Doesn't that tell you something?

Inside the Phillies: Who needs sabermetrics?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by cartman

From the guy who collected the sample:

His basement is refigerator temperature?

[Ksyrup]

OK, here's a HUGE pet peeve of mine about the misunderstanding of sabremetrics:

"When you're sitting there and a guy brings up sabermetrics, they don't know nothing about that guy, and that may be the biggest thing," Manuel said. "Sometimes a guy will look at you and say, 'Why did you play that guy, he's 1 for 16 against that guy with seven punch-outs?' But when I've watched that guy, he might be 1 for 16, but nine of those at-bats the guy hit about three or four balls hard.

This is NOT an example of SABR influence on baseball. In fact, it's just the opposite. One of the basic tenets of analyzing stats is sample size. Most (nearly all) SABR-inclined guys will tell you it's nuts to pinch hit a .750 OPS player with a .600 OPS guy just because the former is 1-12 in his career against a particular pitcher and the latter is 3-7. They don't even know or understand what they are objecting to. They should hire Joe Morgan away from the Reds as a consultant.