Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[GrantDawg]

So, we have our challengers now for the Presidency. How will this election play out? It is going to be an interesting and historic one for sure. I believe this matchup is going to break down some of the patterns of the past presidential elections, but it still going to be a close one with maybe some states that haven't been "swing states" in the past becoming in play. What's your prediction on how this election will play out?

Gallup (RV)
Rasmussen (LV)
CBS News (Both)
Quinnipiac (LV)
Battleground (LV)
Hotline/FD (RV)
Reuters/Zogby (LV)
Newsweek (RV)
Associated Press (LV)
NBC News (RV)
ABC News (RV)
FOX News (RV)
CNN/OpinionResearch (RV)

[SFL Cat]

If Hillary's PO'd supporters don't come home...and Florida and Michigan voters fly the middle finger at the Democrat party for being snubbed, McCain wins big. If the Republican's conservative base decides to stay home, it could be a close race, but I still think McCain wins since Obama pretty much got blown out by Hillary in all the big / battleground state primaries.

[Jim G.]

I would have put the Republican odds at about 1,000-to-1 a year ago.

Now that they've nominated someone who appeals to independents, and the Democrats have had a very divisive and whimsical primary, I'd say it's more like 3-to-1 against McCain right now. Still a tough road, but not the miracle long shot it once was.

[Drake]

Were Florida and Michigan really "snubbed"? Can you call it "snubbed" when you know the consequences *before* you decide to break ranks with party policy and do it anyway?

[SFL Cat]

THE political tee for this year's election...

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

THE political tee for this year's election...

We'll we should be well used to it by now, eh? We've been gettinger screwed much, much harder over the last 8 years than we'll be in the forseeable future.

Whatever comes after Bush will feel like sweet, sweet gentle lovin'.

*cue Barry White music*

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Drake

Were Florida and Michigan really "snubbed"? Can you call it "snubbed" when you know the consequences *before* you decide to break ranks with party policy and do it anyway?

I live in Michigan. I don't feel snubbed.

[SFL Cat]

I live in Florida...lot of mad Democrats down here. And since Hillary won the state pretty comfortably...they ain't happy, and if local talk radio is any indicator...a lot of them are either staying home or voting for McCain.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

I live in Florida...lot of mad Democrats down here. And since Hillary won the state pretty comfortably...they ain't happy.

Well, if they want to keep this country from going further into the crapper, they better cowboy up and get with it.

Like Spock said, it's logical. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Well, if they want to keep this country from going further into the crapper, they better cowboy up and get with it.

Like Spock said, it's logical. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Yeah...I remember everyone saying the same thing about Jimmy Carter back in '75...and that turned out well...

[lordscarlet]

Um. Obama got the necessary delegates regardless of Florida and Michigan, didn't he? Suck it up.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

I live in Florida...lot of mad Democrats down here. And since Hillary won the state pretty comfortably...they ain't happy, and if local talk radio is any indicator...a lot of them are either staying home or voting for McCain.

me too, and I completely disagree so, considering I lean further left than SFL cat does, take that FWIW. I dont feel snubbed and will vote for the candidate that I think will steer as as far away from what has been evidenced by the last 8 years and the numerous tell alls from people who have left the administration....However each and every one has just been disgruntled and a liar, apparently, except Ari Fleischer, everyone else though....total and complete liars. All of 'em. While they were with the administration they were truth tellers....now theyre liars.

[Subby]

I have to cancel out cam's vote, so I'll be voting Obama.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Jim G.

I would have put the Republican odds at about 1,000-to-1 a year ago.

Now that they've nominated someone who appeals to independents, and the Democrats have had a very divisive and whimsical primary, I'd say it's more like 3-to-1 against McCain right now. Still a tough road, but not the miracle long shot it once was.

Why type out my answer when it's already been given?

[Greyroofoo]

I vote in Michigan and I feel screwed by both parties. Nader or Libertarian for me.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

THE political tee for this year's election...

I'd hit it.

[spleen1015]

I don't think there is a Republican past, present or future who could win this election after the way the public views what Bush has done to this country.

I see Obama winning in Reagan fashion.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Yeah...I remember everyone saying the same thing about Jimmy Carter back in '75...and that turned out well...

The difference is, W couldn't even sniff Gerald Ford's jockstrap much less hold it. That's so insulting to Ford ( who lost primarily as backlash as well because he wasn't a bad president at all ) it's laughable.

[st.cronin]

I think this will be a close election.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Axxon

The difference is, W couldn't even sniff Gerald Ford's jockstrap much less hold it.

Get a grip Axxon.

The first term was pretty good at worst. The second term stumbles have made virtually no one happy, although there's still quite a gap about which stumbles were the most troublesome. Specifically, I don't even think Iraq makes my top three gripes (at least not in terms of presence). Low approval ratings are virtually assured when you've got one contingent unhappy about the things he's done and a whole different contingent upset with the things he didn't do, the latter being the group I fall solidly into.

There's one school of thought that suggests that if you're upsetting two highly divergent groups, you're probably doing a decent job of splitting the middle (not a theory I'm prone to subscribing to, but it still exists).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think this will be a close election.

Popular vote I'd agree. Too hard for me to call at this point what the electoral margin might be, since a consistent set of narrow wins can turn into a big electoral gap. At the moment I could believe an electoral landslide for either to one that comes down to counting absentee & provisional ballots. All depends upon how effectively McCain can campaign.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I think this will be a close election.

I't be as naive to not think this as it would be to consider public opinion 2 years before the election to be meaningful.

Still, I'm pretty sure the 100 years in Iraq thing is going to be the dealbreaker for the republicans.


FWIW, here's a thread I read on a conservative message board that makes sense and if it happened would be a great thing for the republicans. I didn't really realize though, how bad the divide was on that side. It isn't going to happen this cycle but if it did, I'd have to reconsider my position against voting for the party ever again.

Here's the first post.

The GOP was taken over in 1980 by far-right conservatives and evangelicals. This was after a proud history of moderate politics, and a love affair with the American people.

People like Nixon, Eisenhower, Lincoln, and even Bush 1 shared in this proud history. Now, the GOP is suffering under the effects of voter fatigue with the far right ideological politics of the GOP.

I feel its time social and ecoonmic moderates took back their rightful place in the party, and reinstituted policies of realpolitik and moderation.

There's not one president on that list I wouldn't vote for if he was running FWIW which is what interested me in the thread and the entire post pretty much sums up my opinion of the current state of the party.


Hmm, who came into power in 1980 and who is the one president I've said I absolutely hated? Oh yeah...

hxxp://www.perspectives.com/forums/view_topic.php?id=176966&forum_id=5

[Flasch186]

even if you supported the invasion of Iraq on a military basis, the waters become so muddled when you add in the shortfalls deficit wise, the excised military budgeting in re: to I&A, coupled with the slow down of the economy that it's tough to stand up and say that it was handled even with a hint of intelligence or planning.

On the second note about splitting the middle I would be willing to bet you find anyone on the left saying he did a good job of splitting anything except splitting all good support he had following 9/11 from his administration.

...however you knew I'd say that before I said it.

[st.cronin]

My amateur analysis: The Republicans came out of the primary with their strongest GE candidate, while the Democrats did not. I think Clinton would have demolished McCain (electoral college, at least). Obama will not win Florida, so he'll have to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania - which will be difficult, although not impossible.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Get a grip Axxon.

The first term was pretty good at worst. The second term stumbles have made virtually no one happy, although there's still quite a gap about which stumbles were the most troublesome. Specifically, I don't even think Iraq makes my top three gripes (at least not in terms of presence). Low approval ratings are virtually assured when you've got one contingent unhappy about the things he's done and a whole different contingent upset with the things he didn't do, the latter being the group I fall solidly into.

There's one school of thought that suggests that if you're upsetting two highly divergent groups, you're probably doing a decent job of splitting the middle (not a theory I'm prone to subscribing to, but it still exists).

No offense Jon but your opinion is so far from any middle ground that anything you consider "pretty good" has to be taken with a pillar of salt.

The problem in this country right now is that the political parties are so polarized, completely petrified that the other guy will win, that they're going to hold their nose and vote for someone simply on that label. That's why 2004 was so close IMHO and why you can't say really predict how this election will go.

I've talked to way to many people who vote republican who hated W even in 2k4 but voted for him anyway. It's why I was intrigued with the thread I just posted which would be another step in backing both sides from the ideological extremes which is hurting this country very badly because most people really don't fall under either extremes.

It's quite possible to hold a set of beliefs, protect them, without going batshit insane in doing so. It's called compromise and the country really needs it but the rhetoric is so high right now, no one wants to take the first step.

[Flasch186]

Obama, will win Florida. IMO

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Jim G.

I would have put the Republican odds at about 1,000-to-1 a year ago.

Now that they've nominated someone who appeals to independents, and the Democrats have had a very divisive and whimsical primary, I'd say it's more like 3-to-1 against McCain right now. Still a tough road, but not the miracle long shot it once was.

I disagree with this assessment only in that it is never 1,000-to-1 in a presidential campaign -- when the most critical factor you will be dealing with -- the candidates -- are a complete unknown.

I do agree with your point that it is easier to see how Obama wins this race than McCain, although I'd take McCain with the odds you are giving. A lot has to go right in the next couple of months for Obama to win.

Most importantly in the near term, HRC has to fully commit to supporting Obama. Obama needs her supporters on board now to start filling out the state-by-state organizations he is going to need be effective in key states. Her organizational supporters in OH and FL, for example, will be critical.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My amateur analysis: The Republicans came out of the primary with their strongest GE candidate, while the Democrats did not. I think Clinton would have demolished McCain (electoral college, at least). Obama will not win Florida, so he'll have to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania - which will be difficult, although not impossible.

The debates are going to be huge this election cycle because there's no way McCain is going to look good here. He's no where near as charismatic and he comes off as a cantankerous old man. If he starts snapping at Obama then he's done IMHO because no way Obama rises to the bait and he's smooth enough to look like silk when he turns that tactic aside.

This is very reminiscent of Nixon/Kennedy in that regard.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Obama, will win Florida. IMO

Dude, that's not a given. Sure, more Floridians will think they voted for Obama but what they really chose, who can say??

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by Axxon

The difference is, W couldn't even sniff Gerald Ford's jockstrap much less hold it. That's so insulting to Ford ( who lost primarily as backlash as well because he wasn't a bad president at all ) it's laughable.

Not how I remember it all. The Dems painted Ford as a Nixon tool, especially after Nixon's Watergate pardon; an idiot, he was heavily blamed for the economic doldrums caused by a lot of Nixon's fiscal policies; and on top of everything else, a klutz -- what the hell is that clown going to trip over today?

Poor Gerald didn't even get a sympathy bump when Squeaky Fromme tried to put a bullet in him. Glad to know that down deep inside Democrats actually held the guy in such high esteem, despite what was said.

[lordscarlet]

I will be very surprised at a landslide victory. I even think McCain has a decent chance. There are the people that truly support McCain and/or the Republican party, there are the people upset about Clinton, there are the people that feel Obama is dirty because he's in Illinois politics and there are the morons like my coworker that says, "I will move if America elects someone with the middle name 'Hussein.'" (He is a Witness and does not vote)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Axxon

The problem in this country right now is that the political parties are so polarized

It isn't the parties Ax, it's the members of the parties, i.e. the citizens, the voters, the people. And those sitting on the fence aren't particularly liked or respected by either.

It's called compromise

No Ax, it's called surrender, to the greatest enemy the nation faces.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Not how I remember it all. The Dems painted Ford as a Nixon tool, especially after Nixon's Watergate pardon; an idiot, he was heavily blamed for the economic doldrums caused by a lot of Nixon's fiscal policies; and on top of everything else, a klutz -- what the hell is that clown going to trip over today?

Poor Gerald didn't even get a sympathy bump when Squeaky Fromme tried to put a bullet in him. Glad to know Democrats REALLY had such high esteem for the guy.

Like I said, they voted Carter as a backlash against Nixon and watergate. Simpe stuff. Remember, they'd never voted for Ford either so there was no attachment. He was screwed either way.

Say what you will about Democrats there but Nixon had taken 72 in a landslide so it certainly isn't clear that there was this huge political divide like there is now. There was huge disillusionment which is hard to understand now sometimes since now disillusionment is the norm.

As for what he can trip over now, who knows? Dole took the last really good one.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Axxon

The debates are going to be huge this election cycle because there's no way McCain is going to look good here. He's no where near as charismatic and he comes off as a cantankerous old man. If he starts snapping at Obama then he's done IMHO because no way Obama rises to the bait and he's smooth enough to look like silk when he turns that tactic aside.

This is very reminiscent of Nixon/Kennedy in that regard.

Maybe its just because I've been a McCain fan for a long time, going back to before 2000, but I just don't see this at all. He's not a particularly polished speaker when reading, but he has terrific presence when he's unscripted - I would expect him to do well in a debate. Cantankerous old man, that sounds like Dole, Perot, maybe Bush 41, but it doesn't seem to describe McCain at all.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Axxon

Dude, that's not a given. Sure, more Floridians will think they voted for Obama but what they really chose, who can say??

LOL, that's true. If the ballots end up in a locked safe never to be counted anyone could win. Is Katherine Harris still in charge?

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It isn't the parties Ax, it's the members of the parties, i.e. the citizens, the voters, the people. And those sitting on the fence aren't particularly liked or respected by either.



No Ax, it's called surrender, to the greatest enemy the nation faces.

That's right Jon, half the country is the greatest enemy the nation faces. You've said it before. Extremely few people buy it and it lessens every day. People tire of this crap and that's why the middle is so popular. It's where most of the people are.

I'm confused though about the first paragraph. So, you're saying that either you have to be an extremist to the left or an extremist to the right or you aren't respected. I have to disagree with that.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

I will be very surprised at a landslide victory. I even think McCain has a decent chance. There are the people that truly support McCain and/or the Republican party, there are the people upset about Clinton, there are the people that feel Obama is dirty because he's in Illinois politics and there are the morons like my coworker that says, "I will move if America elects someone with the middle name 'Hussein.'" (He is a Witness and does not vote)

I honestly thought Hillary would give McCain a tougher race than Obama.

I saw today that Obama's people were spinning that he was all about getting the delegates and not worried about underperforming in key battleground states...wonder how they'll spin it if McCain blows him out in those states during the general?

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Maybe its just because I've been a McCain fan for a long time, going back to before 2000, but I just don't see this at all. He's not a particularly polished speaker when reading, but he has terrific presence when he's unscripted - I would expect him to do well in a debate. Cantankerous old man, that sounds like Dole, Perot, maybe Bush 41, but it doesn't seem to describe McCain at all.

I don't know. That's the feeling I got in the republican debates. I think he fared badly in those.

[Flasch186]

I think McCain would have to Swift Vote to win and Im hopeful that he wont resort to that tactic since Bush used such underhanded tactics on McCain himself.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

I honestly thought Hillary would give McCain a tougher race than Obama.

I saw today that Obama's people were spinning that he was all about getting the delegates and not worried about underperforming in key battleground states...wonder how they'll spin it if McCain blows him out in those states during the general?

I don't think Hillary would have given a better race. There's way too many republicans who still have a hate on for the Clintons, especially the far right who really doesn't like McCain all that much either. They'd certainly have been motivated to vote against a Clinton but now, maybe not so motivated to vote for McCain.

I think the proof is in the pudding considering how many republicans worked hard to vote for Clinton trying to get her in the general election. You can say that this shows they support her but I'm not that naive; they preferred facing her.

[cartman]

I find the Carter-Obama comparison amusing. They are polar opposites. The knock on Obama is that he doesn't give specifics and speaks about vision, where Carter was a consumate micromanager and got too wrapped up in the minutiae of day to day operations.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I don't think Hillary would have given a better race. There's way too many republicans who still have a hate on for the Clintons, especially the far right who really doesn't like McCain all that much either. They'd certainly have been motivated to vote against a Clinton but now, maybe not so motivated to vote for McCain.

I agree. The idea of Clinton as president would be enough to get people out to vote against her. She's a polarizing figure. While McCain may not cater to all, a lot of moderates like him and I think he'd get their vote over Clinton's.

I still think McCain was the Republican's best bet for the White House regardless of the Democrat's nomination.

Hopefully Obama can pull this out.

See you fellas in November.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I don't know. That's the feeling I got in the republican debates. I think he fared badly in those.

Plus, I've already seen this photo making the rounds and used in this kind of discussion.



This one too.



Unfair, but image is everything nowadays.

[Barkeep49]

Have people looked at the electoral map? I'm just amazed that Obama is running away with it here. Must be post nomination bump effect in full swing.

[SFL Cat]

Originally Posted by Axxon

I don't think Hillary would have given a better race. There's way too many republicans who still have a hate on for the Clintons, especially the far right who really doesn't like McCain all that much either. They'd certainly have been motivated to vote against a Clinton but now, maybe not so motivated to vote for McCain.

I think the proof is in the pudding considering how many republicans worked hard to vote for Clinton trying to get her in the general election. You can say that this shows they support her but I'm not that naive; they preferred facing her.

To me, except for a few issues, McCain and Clinton are pretty much the same politicians ...so in a race between them people vote for their parties ... and with a lot of Dems fired up about getting rid of Bush and a lot of Republicans lukewarm about McCain - I can see a very good chance of a Dem victory.

Now Obama is far to the left of Clinton (especially after she tried to edge toward the middle for broader appeal), I think he's ranked as one of the most left-leaning members of the Senate. Other than his brief time in the Senate, he has NO resume or accomplishments to speak of (unless he wants to tout being the first black man nominated by a political party for president)....at least Jimmy Carter could say he had been in the military and was the governor of a state. In addition, I think we now start to hear a lot more about his associations with Rezko, Giannoulias, Ayers, not to mention his kook ex-pastor. Admit it or not, there is a split in the Democrat party that rivals anything among Republicans at the moment, and depending on how Clinton is handled by Obama and the party heading into the Convention, will determine whether her supporters hop on the bandwagon, vote for McCain or stay home. Also, I think an Obama candidacy causes a lot of Republicans to vote who otherwise might have stayed home, because as lukewarm as they might be toward McCain...Clinton is the devil they know...Obama is the great unknown.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

He's not a particularly polished speaker when reading, but he has terrific presence when he's unscripted - I would expect him to do well in a debate.

Right up until he hits an audience that actually understands a subject & then he's exposed as a borderline idiot.

Hearing him speak on issues concerning the broadcast industry is downright painful, He's utterly clueless on the subject and yet doesn't let it stop him for a second.

Sorry Cronin, but his best (and only real) hope is to be "not Obama". If it depends on being McCain, he's a dead duck.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Axxon

... that's why the middle is so popular. It's where most of the people are.

Yep, that's where I'd want to stake my claim -- the middle, right there with the folks who make American Idol so popular. Ever heard me make many arguments in favor of the intelligence or character of the average American?
I didn't think so.

So, you're saying that either you have to be an extremist to the left or an extremist to the right or you aren't respected.

Be committed to something. Hell, be committed to anything other than mediocrity, surrender, appeasement of your enemies. Honestly Axxon, those that aren't are pretty easily dismissed & not worthy of a great deal of respect. They've already shown either a lack of principles or a willingness to bend whatever weak principles they have. They're easy enough to go around or through when the need arises.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Axxon

they preferred facing her.

Agreed ... but not necessarily because they thought that race was more winnable (indeed, I believe enough GOP voters didn't see enough difference that she would have won that matchup).

It's just that losing it wasn't nearly as potentially devastating to the nation as the alternative prospect. Hillary's problem was going to be execution, no matter how horrendous some of her proposals were, at least some of them were doomed to failure because there's only so much money to throw around.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

To me, except for a few issues, McCain and Clinton are pretty much the same politicians ...so in a race between them people vote for their parties ... and with a lot of Dems fired up about getting rid of Bush and a lot of Republicans lukewarm about McCain - I can see a very good chance of a Dem victory.

Now Obama is far to the left of Clinton (especially after she tried to edge toward the middle for broader appeal), I think he's ranked as one of the most left-leaning members of the Senate. Other than his brief time in the Senate, he has NO resume or accomplishments to speak of (unless he wants to tout being the first black man nominated by a political party for president)....at least Jimmy Carter could say he had been in the military and was the governor of a state. In addition, I think we now start to hear a lot more about his associations with Rezko, Giannoulias, Ayers, not to mention his kook ex-pastor. Admit it or not, there is a split in the Democrat party that rivals anything among Republicans at the moment, and depending on how Clinton is handled by Obama and the party heading into the Convention, will determine whether her supporters hop on the bandwagon, vote for McCain or stay home. Also, I think an Obama candidacy causes a lot of Republicans to vote who otherwise might have stayed home, because as lukewarm as they might be toward McCain...Clinton is the devil they know...Obama is the great unknown.

I'd certainly disagree here. In a normal election cycle yeah, sure, but this is a vote on the war and the declining economy. The country as a whole is getting tired and democrats have been voting in record numbers. It's very naive to think that those numbers are going to just stay home now ( oh gee, only Hillary could solve this mess, might as well stay at home - that's insulting. Oh gee, Hillary lost, only McCain can solve this mess is equally as insulting. Plus I think more republicans would have voted against Hillary due to the Clinton name. Apparently I'm reading different conservative boards than you are here ) that Hillary lost. It's about being fed up with the status quo not pro any candidate at this point. I just don't see a huge fallout no matter which candidate would have won the nomination.

[lordscarlet]

Um. So if you are in the "middle", which merely means you believe in some of the Republican ideals and some of the Democrat ideals, makes you unintelligent? If my only choice to be a zealot for are the Democrats and the Republicans, there's far more wrong with the world than being a moderate.