Werewolf XII: Mafia Returneth

[illinifan999]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Yes if you are wrong we are fucked, that is why you start at the top and work your way down, vote Blade this time if you must and then vote Shorty....if you vote Shorty first and Blade is telling the truth then we lose 2 villagers[b/c u will still vote Blade next time] to prove that point instead of just 1.

If I'm wrong at ANY point here, we're fucked.

If I'm wrong that Blade is Mafia, and we lynch him, then we've potentially lost a seer.

If I'm right that he's Mafia, but wrong that Shorty is too, and we lynch Shorty first, then somebody potentially dies or gets converted tonight, and then we lose Shorty as a villager tomorrow, and then another villager possibly dies or gets converted. Being wrong on that count means we risk losing three villagers while knocking off one Mafioso. We don't have the numbers at this point for that to be a viable strategy.

If I'm wrong that either of these guys are Mafia, and we lynch Shorty first, then we're going to end up being in one crappy-ass situation two days from now.

You'll notice I haven't tried to sway anybody to change their vote. All I'm doing is defending my theory, the reasoning behind it, and why I'm voting the way I am. I realize this is a risky hunch to act on, and I'm not going to strong-arm anybody into following me. If you trust me, and you believe that my reasoning is sound, great. Vote Shorty.

If you trust me but don't think my reasoning is sound enough to vote the way I am, follow your own gut, whether that means Blade first, or somebody else entirely. Do what you think is right.

If you don't trust me, don't lynch Shorty or Blade.

Simple as that.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

I'm confused. If I believe Blade is Mafioso, how does that make me the Son of the Don?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

I'm trying to save my ass. Heh, I guess I am getting too emotional, how? What would you do if you were the prime canidate in this situation, Schmidty? Have a few drinks and laugh it off? I know you too well. You'd be whining your ass off. And how could anyone blame you.. afterall, this is a game of survival, if you don't do anything you can to prove your innocence, then you ought not to be playing.

You're wrong dude. I've learned that getting too emotional in thses games gets you killed. I've learned that the hard way.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

Heh. I know I'm innocent. And I certainly don't know about you anymore. Trying so hard to kill off a person in the same predicament as you.

I'm not trying to kill anybody off. I believe both of you are Mafia, and I'm voting accordingly, but the last thing I want is for an innocent villager to get lynched.

I wish both of our seers weren't dead.

[korme]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'm not trying to kill anybody off.

That's like shooting a basketball and saying you're not trying to make it. What, you're just fucking around by voting for me? That vote for me was for shits and giggles? Obviously, you're trying to kill me off. Fair enough, I know you'll be disappointed by the results, but fair enough Sack.

[Schmidty]

Now dubbs calling me mafia? Hilarious. That's cool though. What's your evidence against me Mr. Dubb? I'd love to see that, since I am most certainly not Mafia.

Unvote Shorty

Consider yourself called out dubb. I'll be looking at the evidence, and if I see one thing against you, you've got my vote.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

I might add, Bearcat could easily be re-placed with Jeff, not 100% sure on that one yet, and it would make alot more sense since Bearcat did vote Blade while Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Jeff

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I might add, Bearcat could easily be re-placed with Jeff, not 100% sure on that one yet, and it would make alot more sense since Bearcat did vote Blade while Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Jeff

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

Again - What's your evidence against me?

[digamma]

Originally Posted by dubb93

OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....

Original Mafia--Schmidty, Bearcat

Mafia Seer--Blade

Son of the Don--Sackattack

prehaps there is no need to re-read through the whole thread and do a complete analysis, consider all 4 of you called out, bad plays 2day guys you almost had us....

Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by digamma

Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

Exactly. Don's Son isn't even revealed to him until/unless the mafia convert him.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Now dubbs calling me mafia? Hilarious. That's cool though. What's your evidence against me Mr. Dubb? I'd love to see that, since I am most certainly not Mafia.

Unvote Shorty

Consider yourself called out dubb. I'll be looking at the evidence, and if I see one thing against you, you've got my vote.

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

Add in the fact that he used the term "OK, these last few minutes have made things clear to me....", yet doesn't even have the rules of the game clear, makes him look really bad. Add in the fact that I know that I'm a villager (I know, everyone says that, but still I am), and I think I know my vote for the day:

Vote dubb

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

That's what I'm having trouble believing. He claims to be a seer for the villagers but so far we've lost 2 key players with viewing capabilities and we have nothing except his say-so on clearing 3 players. I'm thinking there is 2 seer roles for villagers, 1 mafia seer. And since both of our seer's have been killed off by the mafia at the start of the game......

Wow, this brought an all new revelation to me. There's no way the villagers started out with 3 seer roles in my opinion. Blade has moved WAY up on my suspicion list (above Shorty at this point).

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

I'm still waiting for a logical explanation of how exactly I'm the Don's Son.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

Actually, I consider myself to be a pretty poor player at this game even though I enjoy it.

You still have shown me ZERO evidence, other than to label me as mafia out of nowhere. Makes you look extremely bad in my book. If you admit that you were just going on a gut-instinct (like my initial vote for Shorty), I'd be alright with it, but the fact that you "see things clearly", yet have no evidence pretty much indicts yourself.

[pennywisesb]

Dubb, give us your evidence against Schmidty and Bearcat. I'd like to hear it. Both have been pretty quite and I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by digamma

Considering the Don's Son doesn't know he's the Don's Son, I think you're talking completely out of your ass.

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I'm still waiting for a logical explanation of how exactly I'm the Don's Son.

He can't. He made a major mis-step and he knows it.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.

Hmm. This sounds interesting. I'll have to go back and read some old posts.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

Dubb, give us your evidence against Schmidty and Bearcat. I'd like to hear it. Both have been pretty quite and I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.

Bearcat: Bearcat: Just flat out weird. Voted Realdeal on day 1 without giving a reason. This is no suprise as nearly everyone including myself voted Realdeal on day 1(although it wasn't counted b/c he didn't bold his vote), but WE ALL GAVE A REASON! His post contained no reason, just the vote. Votes Sack on day 2, again, no reason given. He unvotes Sack saying he didn't have a reason...and votes Shorty claiming his joke of calling us idiots is "fishy." Day 3, votes me, gives no reason. I call him on it and he says he voted me b/c it isn't going to get me killed and acknowledges he has had a completely random voting patern.

***Must be pointed out I believe Bearcat is just being quite right now and I no longer believe he is mafia...

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

***I now believe Jeff is the 4th mafia member:

Jeff: Bug, a known seer voted him as his last act and died for it. Jeff is also trying to railroad Shorty when it makes no sense. Like I said, you start at the top of that little conspiracy and that is Blade. You don't start in the middle where Shorty is.

[illinifan999]

Unvote Blade
Vote Jeff

I just think it's too risky if Blade is in fact a villager seer, and that bug as a seer voted for jeff seems a little fishy.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

How is one of your own posts conclusive proof against Schmidty? I'm just curious.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Schmidty: Vote for me if you must, don't matter at this point, I've exposed the 4 mafia, evidence? HMMM...you are a VERY GOOD PLAYER. Very experienced and hard expose you normally, but you see a chance to railroad Shorty, when it would make alot more sense to start with Blade. It could save an innocent life if Blade is proven to be innocent, and then we could vote Shorty. However you guys see the chance, against all logic to start at Shorty and do, now you are backpedalling when called out. Vote me if you must, mafia.

Yet another post with no evidence....yet things are "clear to you now"? You must be psychic.

The fact that you jumped all over me as soon as I voted Shorty, makes you and Shorty look bad to me.


edit: Grammar

[digamma]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Except the fact he was converted on day 2 and became mafia. Re-read the rules one more time, why was there no kill on night 2? At that point Sack had posted a PM proving he was innocent, made no sense to leave him alive from the mafia standpoint. Why take a shot at getting someone else and leaving A KNOWN, PROVEN innocent around? It make no sense, they went after sack and he was converted. You need to re-read the rules, he is automatically converted if attacked by the mafia.

There are two possibilities for no kill on night 2:

1. Conversion.
2. Protection by the retired cop.

If the mafia hit a witness on night one, got a conversion on night two and got the newspaper reporter on night three, it's probably the greatest run in the history of the Werewolf games. I don't put it past them, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

[korme]

My best hunch is that it is someone that we haven't paid as much attention to as of late. I don't think it's Blade or Sack, since Blade was telling the truth with me I have to assume Sack is a villager too, even though his extreme push to get me out makes me a little more wary.

I'm going to go ahead and vote jeff061, based on what dubb says and to continue that I have thought jeff was sketchy since day 1.

[SnDvls]

I'm more confused than ever on who to vote for now.

can someone give me a vote count/breakdown?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by digamma

There are two possibilities for no kill on night 2:

1. Conversion.
2. Protection by the retired cop.

If the mafia hit a witness on night one, got a conversion on night two and got the newspaper reporter on night three, it's probably the greatest run in the history of the Werewolf games. I don't put it past them, but I think it's pretty unlikely.

Very unlikey to get the witness and nespaper reporter yes. But IF Sacks was the Son of the Don, and I believe he was, there is NO OTHER REASON HE IS AROUND, then its not as unlikely as you make it sound. It would have made no sense to have 14 people left and us KNOWING that 1 was innocent. You kill that person and make it 14 left with us not knowing for sure who is innocent.

the fact that you jumped all over me as soon as I voted Shorty, makes you and Shorty look bad to me.

The fact that you would vote Shorty knowing that the only evidence against him depends on Blade being mafia is shady. Like I said, no point in voting Shorty first b/c IF he was innocent it proves nothing, Blade could still be mafia. You start at Blade, if he's innocent everyone in that group(with the exception of Sack since he was viewed on night 1 and converted on night 2) would be cleared, but if he's guilty then you can start weeding through his "cleared" list. Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

[dubb93]

Vote Jeff

My above reasoning stands, and it seems the majority of villagers want to take him out 2nite so I'll right along with them.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Jeff: Bug, a known seer voted him as his last act and died for it. Jeff is also trying to railroad Shorty when it makes no sense. Like I said, you start at the top of that little conspiracy and that is Blade. You don't start in the middle where Shorty is.

Bug wasn't known as a seer until after he was dead. The person you've targeted as the mafia seer says he didn't scan Bug. Maybe he did.

I understand you're just trying to move the ball forward, but your methods could use some work. You're just drawing suspicion on yourself.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by digamma

Bug wasn't known as a seer until after he was dead. The person you've targeted as the mafia seer says he didn't scan Bug. Maybe he did.

I understand you're just trying to move the ball forward, but your methods could use some work. You're just drawing suspicion on yourself.

It doesn't matter when Bug was known as a seer, his last act was to vote Jeff. We have 1 newspaper reporter, Bug, 1 witness Mr. Wednesday, the odds of us having another are slim to NONE. If I draw suspicion on myself I don't care, feel free to vote me.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Very unlikey to get the witness and nespaper reporter yes. But IF Sacks was the Son of the Don, and I believe he was, there is NO OTHER REASON HE IS AROUND, then its not as unlikely as you make it sound.

Really? If they're capable of determining who the Son of the Don is that early in the game, then isn't it just as possible that the reason I'm still around is that they figured out who he was, and in the night they made the conversion, also learned that Bug was the Newspaper Reporter?

In other words...let's say they got lucky on night one, nailed the witness. Bam. Somehow, they discover who the Son of the Don is seriously early, and make the conversion on night two.
Perhaps they have their own seer, who learned Bug's role on night two as well, and Bug was killed on night three.

So there are two possibilities: one, I'm the Son of the Don, which is why I'm not dead, or two, I'm not dead because they've found bigger fish to fry. Which, pretty clearly in nailing a Witness and Reporter and potentially finding the Don's son, they have.

Now...if I'm the Son of the Don, and they've found me already, why am I targeting Blade, somebody who keeps popping up on other people's lists, since he would be on my side?

Let's even say that I'm the Son of the Don, and don't know it yet (which, by the nature of the role, is certainly possible). If I don't know it, I certainly can't be deliberately acting in the Mafia's best interests, because if I don't know it yet, they haven't attacked me yet. so why finger me as the Don's Son without, by your own admission, analysis of the day's events?

[SnDvls]

vote jeff


I'd like to stick to bearcat, but looks like we'll get him tomorrow.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

You seem so sure of yourself, but you are so horribly wrong.

First off, as I said before, I voted Shorty because of my gut feeling. As most people in WW know, I have been extremely busy the past few weeks. I'm with my daughter all day, and then my wife comes home in the evening, and then I go to work at night. I leave FOFC up, but I don't have much to to read everything. I have a lot of hobbies and such to cram into the hour or two I get everyday to myself. Frankly, I didn't know about this Blade/Shorty connection until you mentioned it and I looked back.

Once again, I'm not mafia, and the fact that you are scapegoating 4 people without much/any evidence makes it look like you're trying to draw attention from yourself and Shorty.

[dubb93]

Jeff(5): Fouts, Illinifan999, Shorty 3281, Dubb93, SnDvls
Shorty(2): Sackattack, Jeff061, ****Schmidty voted and then unvoted
Ardent(1): Blade6119
Dubb93(1): Schmidty
Blade6119(1): Bearcat, ***Illinifan999 voted and then unvoted

[Schmidty]

FWIW, the other 3 people you lumped me in with may very well be mafia, I have no idea, and I'm not going to pretend to (like you seem to be).

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Let's even say that I'm the Son of the Don, and don't know it yet (which, by the nature of the role, is certainly possible). If I don't know it, I certainly can't be deliberately acting in the Mafia's best interests, because if I don't know it yet, they haven't attacked me yet. so why finger me as the Don's Son without, by your own admission, analysis of the day's events?

I have analyzied the days events, just didn't go back through the whole thing and write down everything everyone has done. I had intended to, but then you guys came out and gave yourselves up.

If I'm wrong about you guys lynch me tomorrow, makes no difference to me, hell lynch me 2nite, I just know I fingered out the 4 mafia. Blade isn't a seer, lets get real, if he is he isn't good. He tried to act like he was when he know all of ours were dead but it failed. Now you realize its failed, and are going to have to sacrifice him, and it would make sense to do it now, but when you kill shorty and he's proven to be innocent you are going to use faulty logic to claim blade must be innocent too. You hadn't counted on me pointing out what I did about your vote, jeff's vote and schmidty's vote. You guys all decided to go out today and thought you could railroad an innocent and not draw attention to yourselfs, but it backfired.

[jeff061]

I'm glad you aren't lazy and really want to get to the bottom of this.. oh wait. "Hopefully bandwagon votes will come! Who cares if we lynch another villager! Atleast it's not my ass!"

I think you misread what I said. I meant stem one against me, not for you.

I'm going over everything now.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

FWIW, the other 3 people you lumped me in with may very well be mafia, I have no idea, and I'm not going to pretend to (like you seem to be).

I could be wrong, people have been wrong before, BUT I REALLY DON'T THINK I AM. Lets be real, the villagers are getting fuckin PWN'ed here and someone has to step up and be a leader and use the evidence to point fingers at people. You can take what I've said how you want, and if you are innocent I'm sorry, but I don't really think you are. If we had just set here and played the vote Shorty game to "clear" Blade I have a feeling that we would have just been falling into another mafia trap. I may be sticking my head out there, but it is better to die trying then to set back, make it to the end and get over ran by mafia.

[jeff061]

Jeff is trying to railroad people so let me try again...

I am? I am try to throw out facts and let people decide for themselves. I'm not yelling at people to vote Shorty. I'm not yelling at people not to vote Blade. I am laying out my thoughts for it.

Just show me one spot where i am railroading. Be careful what you say, hyperbole wil get you in trouble should my role(villager) be found out tonight.

Dubb you are throwing suspicion at anyone and everyone. Everyday it's a different set of three people.

[jeff061]

And Shorty, much like Fouts, is only voting in retaliation. Not the best way to play the game.

[jeff061]

I think this is the first time I've ever had more than two votes cast my way in a WW game . I'm better at avoiding them when I'm nasty guy. Indeed, it's frustrating.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Dubb you are throwing suspicion at anyone and everyone. Everyday it's a different set of three people.

Thats the only way I know how to play the game.
But I'm pretty confident at the group of 4 I have labeled now.

[jeff061]

Maybe you have a %75 lock, but if you rally people on me your confidence is going to take a hit.

I still think everything you said about me is a lie/bull shit. Shorty's pissed at me for voting on him and being mean to Real. Fouts is going on the fact that a seer voted on me, which is the only thing against and is still far from solid.

[dubb93]

I'm going out to eat, be back before the deadline(hopefully), I just hope all the villagers get on here, weed out the mafia lies and see that what I'm saying makes sense, and is the truth. If not you can't see that, then vote me, simple as that.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Maybe you have a %75 lock, but if you rally people on me your confidence is going to take a hit.

I still think everything you said about me is a lie/bull shit. Shorty's pissed at me for voting on him and being mean to Real. Fouts is going on the fact that a seer voted on me, which is the only thing against and is still far from solid.

I didn't rally them around you, I named who I believe are the 4 mafia, they voted and I followed suit. Makes no sense for me to believe you are mafia, let 4 villagers vote u, and then me vote someone else on my list. The villagers need to rally together and weed out the mafia.

[jeff061]

If not you can't see that, then vote me, simple as that

It's thinking like that which will keep us in this retarded downward spiral, everyone voting on each other for revenge and black and white nonsense reasons. I am a villager. I suggest you, Dubb, come up with an alternate line of thinking that doesn't end in your own death.

Be careful though, thinking gets you lynched.

And no that's not a "mafia 'I give up'" trick. Maybe next time I'll be bad and survive the whole game .

[jeff061]

Just makes no sense, thats why ALL of you are mafia, you, Sack, Blade, and Jeff.

Can I get a summary on this? Your line of thought seems to be absent, yet people are still piling on.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I had intended to, but then you guys came out and gave yourselves up.

You must have better eyesight than me, because I've looked at it seven ways from Sunday, and don't see any examples of anybody "giving themselves up."

[SnDvls]

unvote jeff

vote bearcat

I was hasty in my voting. After rereading the posts and "evidence" jeff doesn't look so bad. I think some of the people mentioned by dubb do though. I can't honestly vote for someone I think/feel is on our side so I have to throw my vote back to my origian gut feeling.