Werewolf XII: Mafia Returneth

[MrBug708]

Anything is possible, according to NC

[SackAttack]

Retired Officer - You are a retired police officer, living your life out in this small village. Thanks to your police training, you are skilled in the ways of gunslinging. You may choose to protect one person each night from being killed by the Mafia. You may choose yourself, but cannot choose the same person in consecutive nights.

Just reading this from the first post. If the Retired Officer protects somebody, would we know?

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Or else the Mafia figured "Hell, they aren't onto us yet anyway, why risk exposing ourselves? Let 'em do it themselves."

(Can they do that?)

I would guess they could. I wouldn't imagine Neon stopping them. Wouldn't make much sense, IMO. I think they found the son, bribed someone, heck maybe they kidnapped someone.

All I know is we're sucking.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Just reading this from the first post. If the Retired Officer protects somebody, would we know?

Ooh! I hadn't thought of that! Would we know?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

Ooh! I hadn't thought of that! Would we know?

That's the thing. I figure if protecting = killing assailant, then yes, we would.

Otherwise...unless either the protected or protectee knows (and outs the knowledge), then we'd be blissfully unaware.

Now, the problem is that we can't be sure the guardee would be telling the truth if he says "Yes, I was protected from death last night," because what's going to prove it if we wouldn't otherwise know? He could be telling the truth, or he could be a Mafioso.

If he's telling the truth, where's his percentage in attracting the spotlight to himself? If he's a Mafioso, that goes double.

[MrBug708]

It would be a huge coincidence though, if the mafia went to kill the person that the police went to protect.

Seems like they probably went to bribe or found the mafia's son...

[illinifan999]

I don't think we can ask the police guy to come out since he'd probably be a target for the mafia so I don't think we'll know if it was that. Leaning towards bribery/lost son myself.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

It would be a huge coincidence though, if the mafia went to kill the person that the police went to protect.

Seems like they probably went to bribe or found the mafia's son...

About one chance in 200, by my calculations, that the officer and mafioso chose the same person. Again, always assuming we don't know the event occurred.

I'd imagine the Mafia role allows them to check one person per night for ties to the Don, but what I wonder is, with multiple Mafia members, can one search for the Don's son, while another kills a random villager? Or do they have to act in concert, whatever their night action?

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

I don't think we can ask the police guy to come out since he'd probably be a target for the mafia so I don't think we'll know if it was that. Leaning towards bribery/lost son myself.

Agreed. I would prefer he stay incognito, as he'd be too valuable to lose the way things are going right now.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

About one chance in 200, by my calculations, that the officer and mafioso chose the same person. Again, always assuming we don't know the event occurred.

I'd imagine the Mafia role allows them to check one person per night for ties to the Don, but what I wonder is, with multiple Mafia members, can one search for the Don's son, while another kills a random villager? Or do they have to act in concert, whatever their night action?

Id assume they can do both...one guy scanning, the whole group killing...but remember there are sure to be at least a few hidden roles(witness for one)...NEON'S last game was riddled with them, every person having a role...id imagine were missing, or not sharing, quite a few...for good or bad...

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Id assume they can do both...one guy scanning, the whole group killing...but remember there are sure to be at least a few hidden roles(witness for one)...NEON'S last game was riddled with them, every person having a role...id imagine were missing, or not sharing, quite a few...for good or bad...

I'm certain there are hidden roles, but I'm just as certain that a few of us are plain vanilla.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Vote Shorty

Vote didn't count, but that's cool. I have legit questionmarks on a certain player and you don't like it because I half-assedly called us idiots for voting someone off who didn't seem like anything more than a villager. Smooth, Schmidty.

[Aesyrqwe]

Gah I come home and find my first WW cut short on day two. I finally came up with a theory though, after getting a chance to really look through all the posts. I'll have to just keep up and see if any of it had some truth. Thanks for the invite to the game

Oh and sorry about the post from the dead, I rarely post on this board so you gotta give me slack on this one

-Aes

[illinifan999]

Save it and post it at the end of the game. It'll be cool to see what you came up with.

[MrBug708]

Sorry man, just had to pick someone....

[Aesyrqwe]

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Save it and post it at the end of the game. It'll be cool to see what you came up with.

Yeah I had no intention of talking about the game like that after I was lynched

-Aes

[Fouts]

I'm not sure what to think about the no kill, but with 15 of us left we need to come up with some incriminating information. I know I don't look good with the kill of Aesyrqwe, but I was trying to stir up some chatter and we did get some talk going at the end of the day. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

*I won't be on until tomorrow afternoon as I have some appointments in the morning.

[kingfc22]

Go mafia!!!

[Bek]

We are really running on a bad streak here...we need to turn things around quickly...the no kill was very interesting...props to the officer if he really did protect someone

*might not be on tommorw as my new job training is taking up most of my time, ill see what I can do...unitl then...

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

Vote didn't count, but that's cool. I have legit questionmarks on a certain player and you don't like it because I half-assedly called us idiots for voting someone off who didn't seem like anything more than a villager. Smooth, Schmidty.

Are you sure that's why I voted for you Shorty? If so, you know more than I do.

[Blade6119]

This is from a PM i recieved from bek..time stamp was:

Private Messages in Folder: Inbox
Messages: 9 Today


08-15-2005 Mafia?!?!?!?!?
11:35 PM Bek

Originally Posted by Bek

Us mafia are staying low well arent we...you villagers have no idea whats going on...and I'm loving it...just watch out for this next night...because we are coming

--Bek

[Blade6119]

anyone else have any reason to not lynch him, tell me...but i cant ignore that evidence...i know its early, and regardless of whether or not bek is one of my off-board friends, i just can't let him get away with this. Pending amazing evidence to change my mind:

Vote Bek

[SackAttack]

Why would he reveal himself like that, though? That's what doesn't make any sense to me.

Either Bek is a Mafioso, and was amazingly stupid to think he could send a PM like that and not have it posted, or you're a Mafioso betting that since we have no idea what's going on right now, that we'll flood to the first sign of a breakthrough.

I'm going to have to hold off for now and watch how the rest of the day unfolds.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Are you sure that's why I voted for you Shorty? If so, you know more than I do.

You already criticized me in a prior post, it's not hard to go from Point A to Point B. That's real funny how you try to say as you little as you can to provoke me. Interesting.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Why would he reveal himself like that, though? That's what doesn't make any sense to me.

Either Bek is a Mafioso, and was amazingly stupid to think he could send a PM like that and not have it posted, or you're a Mafioso betting that since we have no idea what's going on right now, that we'll flood to the first sign of a breakthrough.

I'm going to have to hold off for now and watch how the rest of the day unfolds.

I think the thing you forget is bek is one of my best friends...we talk about the game when we hang out, and he has repeatedly told me he couldnt tell me his role...after i called him a mafia bastard when i got mad at him for voting me(a friendly insult, but still a jest) he sent that back...i fet it proper to share..do with it what you will, but i thought that any evidence i had should come forward for the benefit of the group...if i dit on it it only leads to more death, and coming out with it in three days would meet the same spectisim...i also dont think it makes the mafia want to kill me, since it doesnt allow me info on other members...its a mistake he made, and i hope you take it as such

[korme]

Wow, Blade. Pretty strong conviction on bek right there if you aren't hosing us. I'll be curious to see how other people feel about this, but it's about the only thing we might be going on right now, so yeah...

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

I think the thing you forget is bek is one of my best friends...we talk about the game when we hang out, and he has repeatedly told me he couldnt tell me his role...after i called him a mafia bastard when i got mad at him for voting me(a friendly insult, but still a jest) he sent that back...i fet it proper to share..do with it what you will, but i thought that any evidence i had should come forward for the benefit of the group...if i dit on it it only leads to more death, and coming out with it in three days would meet the same spectisim...i also dont think it makes the mafia want to kill me, since it doesnt allow me info on other members...its a mistake he made, and i hope you take it as such

Not criticizing you, don't misunderstand.

I'm just saying that if we take it at face value, as it appears intended, it can only go one of those two ways.

A third possibility is that he's trying to fuck with your mind, but again, he has to have realized the possibility of it getting posted, and I have to wonder why he would do that - and leave hard evidence - if he's an innocent villager just pulling your leg. It'd be much safer to say something like that man-to-man where it's just your word against his.

That last seems the least likely, so it still boils down to that either-he-is-or-you-are scenario. I hope somebody else has some information that can shed light one way or the other, because we can't afford another "oops."

[SackAttack]

dola,

I also didn't know previously that you and Bek were buds, but it still comes down to the same thing. Either he is, and screwed up, or you are, and overplayed your hand too soon, or he's trying to screw with you outside the game and picked a really dumb way to do it.

I'd almost prefer the first option. It would at least be a break in an otherwise stone-cold case.

[Bek]

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Bek

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

Do you deny sending him that PM, then?

[Bek]

I dont deny sending it but he took it out of context...he was calling me a mafia bastard out of forum(like he said a friendly jest)...i just happend to return the favor and play along with him thinking I'm mafia and send that wonderfully crafted PM back to him...If I'm to be faulted for anything then its for returning the jest in forum...If you do kill me you will find out that I'm not mafia, and once again us villagers have made another "oops"

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Shorty3281

You already criticized me in a prior post, it's not hard to go from Point A to Point B. That's real funny how you try to say as you little as you can to provoke me. Interesting.

I jokingly called you a rookie. Didn't realize you were that sensitive or that you were taking the game so seriously. I'm actually not trying to provoke you at all. If you can't handle getting voted for in a game, maybe you shouldn't play.

[korme]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I jokingly called you a rookie. Didn't realize you were that sensitive or that you were taking the game so seriously. I'm actually not trying to provoke you at all. If you can't handle getting voted for in a game, maybe you shouldn't play.

^
|
Man with history of sensitivity issues. You can play it off, but you were trying to bait me, I will not play along, and suspicion for you mounts!

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Bek

I dont deny sending it

enough said....you cant say that...simple as black and white

[jeff061]

Frikken wierd.

Why would Bek send that and why would Blade twist it when there is no need to get aggressive like that.

The whole situation makes no sense.

[digamma]

So, the summary for last night is we have three options (and two of them don't look so good):

1. Don's son was found. Add one more to the mafia total.
2. Some sort of secret bribe. Add one more to the mafia total.
3. The retired officer blocked the kill. Things remain the same. (A win for the villagers.)

Now, onto today, this Bek-Blade thing makes absolutely no sense.

Why would Bek send a truthful PM like that?
If Bek didn't send the PM, why would Blade make it up?
Is Bek screwing with Blade?
Where can I get a good cup of coffee?

[RealDeal]

[pennywisesb]

Originally Posted by Bek

ARE YOU KIDDING ME. I may be new to the forum, but im not stupid. Why in the world would i reveal me role. I think that the real threat here is blade...he saw my last comment about maybe not being able to get on and thought he would try to take out another villager tonight...well let me tell you something... he got caught red-handed. I was just heading off for the rest of the evening and decided to check it one more time... and to my surprise i see this stunt trying to be pulled...with this stunt I can only believe that blade is mafia so im going to make my vote now...

Vote Blade6119

I agree with Bek here. Seems alittle fishy that Blade would wait until Bek says he won't be back for some time to release this "evidence" to us. Plus, I'm still trying to figure out why Bek would reveal himself in this manner and not think it was going to get back to the forum. I think Blade is trying to pull something here. Any ideas?

[Bek]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Just ask, apparently im quite good at that

This being to Jeff's first post of

Originally Posted by JEFF

With a lack of a seer we need to spark confrontation, I think.

This is all he is doing to us villagers. Sending us down a road that is only going to get another one of us killed. We have to look who started this whole confrontation...which leads us the the doorstep of blade's house...lets not let a mafia member slip through our fingers when we have the chance to lynch one

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by pennywisesb

I agree with Bek here. Seems alittle fishy that Blade would wait until Bek says he won't be back for some time to release this "evidence" to us. Plus, I'm still trying to figure out why Bek would reveal himself in this manner and not think it was going to get back to the forum. I think Blade is trying to pull something here. Any ideas?

Bek has already confirmed that he sent the PM.

Originally Posted by Bek

I dont deny sending it but he took it out of context...he was calling me a mafia bastard out of forum(like he said a friendly jest)...i just happend to return the favor and play along with him thinking I'm mafia and send that wonderfully crafted PM back to him...If I'm to be faulted for anything then its for returning the jest in forum...If you do kill me you will find out that I'm not mafia, and once again us villagers have made another "oops"

But he maintains it was taken out of context, that he isn't really a Mafioso, but that a joke he was playing on Blade backfired. Why he would do so on the board instead of in person since the two are apparently off-board friends makes no sense. If you aren't, what can it profit you to make such a comment?

Never mind the possibility that Blade himself is a Mafioso, thus giving him a prime opportunity to offer you as the sacrificial lamb and make himself appear more trusted.

If Bek IS Mafioso, then his buddies have to be pretty pissed off with him right now.

[jeff061]

Well to be honest, you shouldn't be PMing someone you are currently engaged in the game with, unless your role dictates it.

Bolded for someone else .

In anycase I'm of the opinion they are both villagers, just doesn't make sense otherwise.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by jeff061

In anycase I'm of the opinion they are both villagers, just doesn't make sense otherwise.

This is the only conclusion I can come to as well.

[illinifan999]

I agree with digamma and jeff. Just seems way to weird to be true, but I guess ya never know...

[SackAttack]

I can't come to any conclusion where Bek is a Mafioso. It just doesn't make any sense for him to out himself this way.

The problem is, I can't come up with a profitable line of reasoning for why Blade would up and post the PM right away, rather than - if he truly believes Bek is guilty - try and build another argument and bring up the PM if he needs something to buttress it.

By posting the PM immediately, he achieves one of three results:

1) Immediate condemnation of Bek followed by his subsequent lynching. This is followed by either:
1a) Cheers as Bek turns out to be Mafia, or
1b) Blade's immediate lynching for what seems to be a frame-up of a villager. If Blade is Mafioso, after all, he would know who his cohorts are, and thus he would know if Bek is truly Mafia.
2) General apathy because of the oddness of the scenario (which seems to be unfolding so far)
3) Suspicion of Blade himself because of the immediacy of his vote.

I did some thinking about this during my statistics class.

If the Mafia did convert somebody last night, either by finding the Don's Son, or by bribing somebody, then they potentially number as high as 4 of the remaining 15 players. Their end-game is to reach a 1:1 ratio, meaning they only need to off seven of us, plus one additional for any of theirs that die.

Assuming that there are four Mafioso right now, and 11 villagers, consider this scenario: Blade is Mafioso, and seized on an innocent joke from his friend as an opportunity to lynch a villager. The Mafia get an opportunity to kill somebody tonight (unless the Retired Officer saves the day), and this time tomorrow morning, there are still 4 Mafia, but now only 9 villagers. Where things go at this point depend largely upon whether people give Blade a pass for his reading of the PM, or if they determine he is Mafioso and lynch him. And, most importantly, whether he actually IS Mafioso.

If both Bek and Blade are innocent, then two days hence we could conceivably be in a 7-4 situation, and in deep, deep doo-doo.

But I keep coming back to the fact that if Blade were innocent, why would he stick his neck out so far, so quickly, based on a PM from someone with whom he's friendly off-board - someone who might be expected to engage in some tomfoolery?

I can respect the "I wanted to get the information out there in case it was important" line, but why not play your cards a little closer to the vest in the first place and try to draw Bek out, rather than go all-in on your hole cards?

vote Blade6119, until we get some better information.

[jeff061]

Well, as far as I can tell I'll probably end up sticking with my vote from yesterday. I think yesterdays voting was even less helpful than day one. Hopefully it will benefit more towards the end of the game.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

I can respect the "I wanted to get the information out there in case it was important" line, but why not play your cards a little closer to the vest in the first place and try to draw Bek out, rather than go all-in on your hole cards?

vote Blade6119, until we get some better information.

As i stated, sitting on this would only delay this same problem...if i brought it up on three days, you would just not believe me then and we would have already lost a few more villagers. Im in no way trying to be overtly aggressive, but after bek had given me countless hints and clues he was mafia during our off-board time, i waited for something concrete and this was it. I can guarantee you one thing, not about bek but about me...if you kill me it will help the mafia...the ratio will get tighter as i count as a villager(and dont yet know any of the mafia...i could soon though if i keep searching at night) and you will lose another tonight...do what you will, but after days of him saying he was mafia, he finally gave me some written evidence and i used it.

At the end of the day, bek is still my buddy, and who you kill wont affect that...i just wanted to help the team and teach him a lesson of what not to do when your mafia...if he isnt mafia, then hes been playing with me for quite some time...and did a damn good job. Oh well, either way ill see you all next game

[jeff061]

As an observation, I think any seers we have left should not even hint at their role unless they are about to be lynched or it's late in the game.

[SackAttack]

Blade, if you are truly a villager, you might still be giving away too much.

[digamma]

I seem to be always a few minutes behind jeff with my comments, but I too am uncomfortable with a witness reveal this early and with no solid evidence against anyone.

[jeff061]

I'd also add, if there was a bribe(I'm assuming this is a convert?) the #1 target would be Sak . Just because he was cleared yesterday and now he's playing up the real/blade situation.

You Mafia veterans know what all these roles and actions are and I'm left in the lurch .