Tennessee or Winthrop?

Poli · 03-15-2006, 10:57 PM

I know this is an upset waiting to happen, but I'm hoping the Vols will win.

2 vs. 15. Yeah, I know. Tennessee has struggled a whole lot as of late, though. I nearly picked Winthrop in this game, despite my allegiance to Tennessee.

I do not have Tennessee advancing past the first round, though.

Anyone picking Winthrop?

Mustang · 03-15-2006, 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I know this is an upset waiting to happen, but I'm hoping the Vols will win.

2 vs. 15. Yeah, I know. Tennessee has struggled a whole lot as of late, though. I nearly picked Winthrop in this game, despite my allegiance to Tennessee.

I do not have Tennessee advancing past the first round, though.

Anyone picking Winthrop?

Tempting but, the odds are that Tennesee will advance. I pretty much always pick #1's/2's. Usually that means you are right what.. 98% of the time...

In the 2nd round... No way I pick Tennessee...

wade moore · 03-16-2006, 05:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ardent enthusiast

I know this is an upset waiting to happen, but I'm hoping the Vols will win.

2 vs. 15. Yeah, I know. Tennessee has struggled a whole lot as of late, though. I nearly picked Winthrop in this game, despite my allegiance to Tennessee.

I do not have Tennessee advancing past the first round, though.

Anyone picking Winthrop?

It seems like our Vols losing is the "trendy" pick right now... the reasoning seems to be that they "should" be a 3 or 4 seed... so they should lose because they are playing an easier opponent than they were supposed to? bah...

I watched this Vols team play live before conference play and didn't think that much of them, but they have really really improved... Yeah they've had a bad stretch, but I think A) they're tired and B) The SEC Teams have figured them out a bit, especially after playing them twice...

Well, they've rested and they won't play an SEC Team, at least for awhile.. I think the Vols will be fine and will go farther than most expect...

I have them in my final 4... but when I do my brackets I have a bad habit of picking what I really WANT to happen, versus what I would do if I was betting a large amount of money... that being said I think they make it at least to the Sweet 16 if not the Elite 8.

QuikSand · 03-16-2006, 05:05 AM

In an un-weighted bracket contest, I think picking against tennessee is a silly mistake.

The only way that picking a *big* upset makes sense is if you're going sufficiently against the grain that you're getting a meaningful edge on the rest of the contestants by picking correctly, if you do. Picking a 2 over a 15 seed is a longshot in any year, under any circumstances. But this year, in this game, there has been enough chatter about Tennessee being overrated that probably 10-20% of the entries will have this upset picked -- so even if you *hit* you probably won't make up as much ground as you ought to. And admittedly, even if Tennessee is only as good as a #4 seed, what does that make the likelihood of them losing to a typical #15 seed, anyway? Maybe 5% 10% at most?

Bracket contests are plenty of fun, but unless they are weighted by meaningful offsets to reward selecting underdogs, it's just silly to go out and pick against top seeds in the early rounds. Get one right, and you gain one game... big deal. Get one wrong, which you usually will, and that high seed goes on to win three or four games, and you fall way behind.

Butter · 03-16-2006, 07:24 AM

I have them picked in one bracket... but since it is a trendy pick, I think Winthrop is going to get crushed.

JonInMiddleGA · 03-16-2006, 07:36 AM

I was also sorely tempted on this one but finally settled on Vols winning once before elimination.

duckman · 03-16-2006, 07:40 AM

I have the Vols losing in the Regional Semi-Finals against Michigan State.

wade moore · 03-16-2006, 07:45 AM

I have the Vols losing in the final 4...

I'm such a homer.

dixieflatline · 03-16-2006, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand

And admittedly, even if Tennessee is only as good as a #4 seed, what does that make the likelihood of them losing to a typical #15 seed, anyway? Maybe 5% 10% at most?

If Winthrop was a typical #15 seed then the percent would be lower but this team isn't your typical #15 seed. Sagarin predicitor has them as the 57th best team in the nation. Tennessee ranks in at 17 so it isn't like they are horrible but just not as good as your regular #2 seed. From the non-updated lines at ESPN Winthrop is only a 6.5 point dog in some cases. If this were indeed the true line they would have a much better than a 10% chance of winning. The predictor has been very good to me in the past and I trust it more than any other computer ranking. I think Tennesse will win the game, and I think they will even cover, but this is no walk in the park. Winthrop is just another case of what a terrible job the committee did this year with the bracket. No way should they be seeded so low.

JeeberD · 03-16-2006, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duckman

I have the Vols losing in the Regional Semi-Finals against Michigan State.

Funny, since MSU is gonna lose in the first round.

The Vols are gonna lost to UNC in the Swet Sixteen...

wade moore · 03-16-2006, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Funny, since MSU is gonna lose in the first round.

The Vols are gonna lost to UNC in the Swet Sixteen...

You picked Mason?

You rule.

Radii · 03-16-2006, 09:24 AM

I have UNC beating Tennessee

JonInMiddleGA · 03-16-2006, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeeberD

The Vols are gonna lost to UNC in the Swet Sixteen...

Impossible.

Since they'll lose to Wichita State in the 2nd Round.

wade moore · 03-16-2006, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Impossible.

Since they'll lose to Wichita State in the 2nd Round.

traitor.

JonInMiddleGA · 03-16-2006, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wade moore

traitor.

Sorry WM, believe me, I'm sorry. But this team has done almost exactly what I told my son to expect about a month ago (he asked what I thought of their chances).

The tournament experience isn't there, teams caught up with them down the stretch, and they just didn't look remotely tournament ready. And that doesn't bode well I'm afraid. They've had a nice season, it's been a fun run, but I'm afraid they've simply run out of gas with a few laps left to go.

Now the Lady Vols on the other hand ... Lordy, I'd hate to be Army in the opener.

wade moore · 03-16-2006, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sorry WM, believe me, I'm sorry. But this team has done almost exactly what I told my son to expect about a month ago (he asked what I thought of their chances).

The tournament experience isn't there, teams caught up with them down the stretch, and they just didn't look remotely tournament ready. And that doesn't bode well I'm afraid. They've had a nice season, it's been a fun run, but I'm afraid they've simply run out of gas with a few laps left to go.

Now the Lady Vols on the other hand ... Lordy, I'd hate to be Army in the opener.

In the logical side of me I agree with you. Like I've said somewhere around here, I saw them play in-person over Thanksgiving against Western Kentucky and I was SHOCKED as they continued to rack up big win after big win.

That being said, I just don't think that these mid-majors will be able to "figure them out" like the SEC teams have. We'll see. I can logically see they have a good chance to get to the Sweet 16 and logically see that a loss to UNC is likely, but since in my homer-driven bracket Mason is in the sweet 16 against them, it is easy to carry UT into the final 4

.

korme · 03-16-2006, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wade moore

I have the Vols losing in the final 4...

I'm such a homer.

You think that's bad? I have the Bearcats winning it all and they aren't even in the tournament.

/cries

KWhit · 03-16-2006, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Funny, since MSU is gonna lose in the first round.

The Vols are gonna lost to UNC in the Swet Sixteen...

Yep.

MylesKnight · 03-16-2006, 12:14 PM

One of these years Winthrop is finally going to break through with a W. Could it be this afternoon?

BishopMVP · 03-16-2006, 04:00 PM

Things getting interesting.

03-16-2006, 07:24 AM	#5
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	I have them picked in one bracket... but since it is a trendy pick, I think Winthrop is going to get crushed. __________________ My listening habits

03-16-2006, 07:36 AM	#6
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	I was also sorely tempted on this one but finally settled on Vols winning once before elimination. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

03-16-2006, 12:14 PM	#19
MylesKnight College Benchwarmer Join Date: Feb 2002 Location: Neptune Beach, Florida	One of these years Winthrop is finally going to break through with a W. Could it be this afternoon? __________________ IT'S ALL ABOUT THE BLACK & GOLD!!

03-16-2006, 05:05 AM	#4
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	In an un-weighted bracket contest, I think picking against tennessee is a silly mistake. The only way that picking a big upset makes sense is if you're going sufficiently against the grain that you're getting a meaningful edge on the rest of the contestants by picking correctly, if you do. Picking a 2 over a 15 seed is a longshot in any year, under any circumstances. But this year, in this game, there has been enough chatter about Tennessee being overrated that probably 10-20% of the entries will have this upset picked -- so even if you hit you probably won't make up as much ground as you ought to. And admittedly, even if Tennessee is only as good as a #4 seed, what does that make the likelihood of them losing to a typical #15 seed, anyway? Maybe 5% 10% at most? Bracket contests are plenty of fun, but unless they are weighted by meaningful offsets to reward selecting underdogs, it's just silly to go out and pick against top seeds in the early rounds. Get one right, and you gain one game... big deal. Get one wrong, which you usually will, and that high seed goes on to win three or four games, and you fall way behind.

03-16-2006, 09:24 AM	#12
Radii Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I have UNC beating Tennessee

03-16-2006, 04:00 PM	#20
BishopMVP Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Concord, MA/UMass	Things getting interesting.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)