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Old 02-27-2020, 09:30 AM   #101
NobodyHere
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Originally Posted by GrantDawg View Post
Don't worry. Pence us in charge. You know, the guy who doesn't believe in science.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

This has to be an attempt by the regime to drive people to religion.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:50 AM   #102
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(But SPCE up another 2%. What a crazy stock).

SPCE is down 23% so far today. Still in the black though.

At least I got my 2 months of toilet paper and lysol spray.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:21 AM   #103
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How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:42 AM   #104
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How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:51 AM   #105
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Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

I'm kind of in the same boat. I have some money I want to throw into my index fund but I'm waiting for the "low point". I might throw in some today.

I have no doubt that the world will get past the virus and the stock market will grow past where we are now.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:54 AM   #106
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Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

And if you lose, just keep doubling until you win!
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:58 AM   #107
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Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
How low does everyone think the Dow Jones goes off the back of this?

I am looking to jump in on a tracker fund at the low point. Seems a good opportunity to buy for the long term.

You could break the money you want to invest into a number of chunks, and buy in with another chunk every week or two.
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:07 PM   #108
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Everything I've read says, unless you are a Warren Buffet like or have insider trading info, don't try to time the market. Assuming you have a long time horizon, investing in a solid, diversified fund/ETF(s) is the way to go.

With that said, we've hit correction territory already (-10% from high), I think there is a good chance it'll be real rocky and lean downwards (let's get the long overdue bear market -20% out of the way) until we get better news on the coronavirus (e.g. vaccine, its not as bad as China etc.)

Last edited by Edward64 : 02-27-2020 at 12:08 PM.
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:58 PM   #109
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You could break the money you want to invest into a number of chunks, and buy in with another chunk every week or two.

Yep, I'm a big fan of Dollar Cost Averaging and just buy on a regular basis.
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Old 02-27-2020, 01:47 PM   #110
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Noted virologists Mnuchin and Kudlow added to the coronavirus task force while Pence has time to deliver a speech at CPAC.

edit: The scientists have been told they can't speak publically without running it by Pence first.
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Old 02-27-2020, 01:48 PM   #111
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Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!
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Old 02-27-2020, 01:59 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by albionmoonlight View Post
Timing the market is somewhere between hard and impossible.

Timing the market with the added complication of pandemic panic seems even more so.

Just fly to Vegas and put it all on black. You'll have about a 50% of doubling your money, and you can see a show while you're there :-)

I can't imagine we're anywhere close to the bottom. Wait until schools close and sporting events are canceled. There's a lot of disruption still to come.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:05 PM   #113
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Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:13 PM   #114
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Japan has now closed all schools for a month to limit the spread.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:14 PM   #115
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Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

I tend to be in the other camp just because the media likes to over hype these kinds of issues.

But then again I'm usually wrong about these things.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:24 PM   #116
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Yeah. I'm reluctantly in the camp that thinks things are going to get BAD with the virus. And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.


I sort of feel this too, but I feel like there is currently a massive amount of fearmongering and clickbait titles going around right now that doesn't seem helpful. I had a news notification on my phone this mornign and the title was something like "You'll probably catch Coronavirus at some point"

Right now I'm just stocking up a little extra on canned goods each time I go get groceries, so if things do get worse I don't have to do it in a panic when everyone else in the country is doing the same thing.


As far as stocks/401k's go, I'm in the "do not try to time the market" camp. Just keep contributing whatever you are right now on the same schedule. The market will recover, and you'll have been making regular contributions at various points all the way down and when it recovers you'll reap the rewards, all good.
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Old 02-27-2020, 02:56 PM   #117
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I have a lot of my 401K money in a 2045 retirement fund (for exactly the reason of not trying to time the market). My brother in-law had an interesting idea I did last week. Basically, I just moved that 2045 fund money into a 2025 fund (much "safer" fund). Once things start to pickup again, I can just make a transaction to move it back to the 2045 fund. It probably won't make a big difference down the line, but even if I save 3-5% of the value - that's some decent money.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:02 PM   #118
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Yeah, that's a pretty simple way to adjust your risk level down.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:04 PM   #119
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I had a news notification on my phone this mornign and the title was something like "You'll probably catch Coronavirus at some point"

I think that might have been The Atlantic article that was linked earlier in this thread. I think they estimated 40 to 70% of us will eventually catch it, but that for most of us, it will be a mild case.

Edit: Yeah, that was this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

Quote:
Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:23 PM   #120
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Yeah, that's a pretty simple way to adjust your risk level down.
Yeah, what's crazy (and stupid on my part) is I never would have put that together without talking to him. Guess that's why those guys get paid
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:25 PM   #121
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I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market. But I am a relative novice.

I manage my own pension. I pay in to various funds, a lot of them American. Once the Dow hit the early 28000s I stopped paying in to the funds and held the money within the pension as cash. Now the market is lower you buy in and get more units. So when it hits 35,000 in 5 years time, or 50,000 in 20 years you have done better as you got more units.

Surely this is a better time to buy then a month ago? Clear cut, end of story. Right? It may go down further but it will rise eventually and ultimately it will have been a cheap buy.

Conversely I sold my gold the day of the 7 year high. Only made 6% as I bought fairly dear, but profit is profit. Isn't this timing the market successfully? Now with that money I buy the cheap Dow...

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Old 02-27-2020, 03:37 PM   #122
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Japan has now closed all schools for a month to limit the spread.

I was thinking about why as it's unlikely a vaccine or cure is going to happen in a month, the virus will still be around.

Then I think I figured it out. It is to reduce the rate of infection but it's probably also so health services do not get overwhelmed all at once.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:44 PM   #123
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And that businesses are going to get hit hard in their bottom lines.

The company my wife works for, owned by Warren Buffet, sent out a memo today saying do not travel if you are even remotely sick as you may get quarantined. It also said have your laptop at all times and be prepared to work long stretches from home or wherever you can get online. They also have closed down a plant in China.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:46 PM   #124
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Does anyone else have travel coming up?

We are going to Cancun last week of March without our kids for a couples trip. We haven't paid the balance yet, we have a couple weeks to do it and I am waiting until the last minute. I'm more worried about getting back in to the country than anything else.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:49 PM   #125
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Does anyone else have travel coming up?

We are going to Cancun last week of March without our kids for a couples trip. We haven't paid the balance yet, we have a couple weeks to do it and I am waiting until the last minute. I'm more worried about getting back in to the country than anything else.

I have travel to NE next Wed-Fri for a client meeting. TBH, I wouldn't mind if they cancelled it or just made it a conference call.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:53 PM   #126
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edit: The scientists have been told they can't speak publically without running it by Pence first.

I struggle with this.

One one hand it is horrifying that the government is basically saying they will tell us what we need to know and only them.

One the other hand we live in an era when misinformation spreads so quickly it does make sense to ensure the proper information is going out to the public.

I think for me what it boils down to is I have little issue with the government wanting to vet the information coming out, but I have zero faith in THIS government to do so properly or ethically.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:54 PM   #127
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I have travel to NE next Wed-Fri for a client meeting. TBH, I wouldn't mind if they cancelled it or just made it a conference call.

I would be comfortable with domestic travel, it;s the international aspect of it I am worried about.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:58 PM   #128
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Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market. But I am a relative novice.

I manage my own pension. I pay in to various funds, a lot of them American. Once the Dow hit the early 28000s I stopped paying in to the funds and held the money within the pension as cash. Now the market is lower you buy in and get more units. So when it hits 35,000 in 5 years time, or 50,000 in 20 years you have done better as you got more units.

Surely this is a better time to buy then a month ago? Clear cut, end of story. Right? It may go down further but it will rise eventually and ultimately it will have been a cheap buy.

Conversely I sold my gold the day of the 7 year high. Only made 6% as I bought fairly dear, but profit is profit. Isn't this timing the market successfully? Now with that money I buy the cheap Dow...

On average, though, it doesn't work.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:09 PM   #129
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On average, though, it doesn't work.
Yeah, every quarter I look at my 401K to see if anything has changed in the funds I use - but I rarely do anything. This time, though, it seemed like a pretty safe bet that putting your money in a low risk fund for a couple months will equate better value given the election and virus.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:37 PM   #130
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I struggle with this.

One one hand it is horrifying that the government is basically saying they will tell us what we need to know and only them.

One the other hand we live in an era when misinformation spreads so quickly it does make sense to ensure the proper information is going out to the public.

I think for me what it boils down to is I have little issue with the government wanting to vet the information coming out, but I have zero faith in THIS government to do so properly or ethically.

Vetting it through Fauci would be a lot better than through Pence. Pence doesn't know anything about the science, so he's almost certainly there to look at everything through a political lens.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:39 PM   #131
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I almost feel sorry for Pence:

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The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do,” according to people familiar with the president’s comments.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:52 PM   #132
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I don't fully understand why people say you can't time the market.

The "you" who can't time the market isn't the individual "you," it's the collective "you." As in all of us.

Sure, you can win at roulette. There's a great thread on here how to do it. You'd probably enjoy it a lot. A person can go play roulette and come away a winner for that sitting. It happens all the time.

But, it's still true that you can't beat the game of roulette. It's a fixed odds game. You can get lucky, but there's no real way to beat it systematically. So, "we" collectively always lose at roulette.

The saying about timing markets is meant as a generic aphorism. Sure, people get lucky and manage to buy low and sell high. Some others end up guessing wrong and do the reverse. Making decisions based on thinking we know where the bottoms and tops are is, in general, a tough way to find alpha. Anecdotes included.

That's what the saying means. In the off chance that was useful.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:54 PM   #133
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...e=articleShare


Not good.
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:00 PM   #134
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It was just a matter of time until it reached within the borders of our country. The virus is now about 60 miles away, an hour drive by car.
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:03 PM   #135
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Yeah, it looks like the article is quarantined under a paywall.
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:11 PM   #136
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Hey, at least one quarantine worked!
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:37 PM   #137
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It was just a matter of time until it reached within the borders of our country. The virus is now about 60 miles away, an hour drive by car.


Isn't nearly everything within an hour by car?


j/k
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:37 PM   #138
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Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

Always bet on black.
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:48 PM   #139
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Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:04 PM   #140
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Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

It sounds like as long as you are under 70 or even better 60and are relatively health and donít have a diabetes or something like a recent heart operation you should be ok.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:11 PM   #141
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Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

No way near end of world scenario. If you haven't already, just buy some extra canned foods, pasta, rice etc. (whatever you already eat) and bottled water for 2-4 weeks.

Wife, daughter and I did talk tonight at dinner. Told them there was a fair chance school shut downs will happen here. Told her nothing we can do about it, we have food etc. I also told her that young people don't have to worry much, it's primarily 60+ where mortality is higher than the 2.1%.

I've read and agree that virus is probably going to mutate and here to stay. We'll eventually find a vaccine and it'll be the new normal like the flu ... but that's next year. For now, a bunch of FUD unfortunately.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:24 PM   #142
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Well, I have type 1 diabetes. And Im 52.

So if you see a really long period of me not posting, assume the worst.
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Old 02-27-2020, 11:52 PM   #143
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Coronavirus: Sick Korean Air attendant served Tel Aviv, LA flights, reports say - Business Insider

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The Los Angeles Times reported that after returning to Seoul, the flight attendant may have operated two additional flights between the South Korean capital and Los Angeles. Those flights, KE17 and KE12, reportedly took place February 19 and February 20, with a one-night layover in Los Angeles, the Los Angeles Times reported.
Bold emphasis mine. That one-night layover was most likely at the new InterContinental Hotel in Downtown Los Angeles, owned by Korean Air. This hotel is adjacent to my place of work, and I walk by this hotel daily. COVID-19 could be closer than I think.
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Old 02-28-2020, 12:27 AM   #144
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Interesting. Every person I've talked to has said "red". Who can you believe?!

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Old 02-28-2020, 04:39 AM   #145
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Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.

It's very reasonable to be concerned about yourself or people you care about, esp. with certain health conditions. But end of the world? No.

It's easy to forget with the press coverage of the 3000 or so who have died from this that 12k-50k die annually from plain ordinary flu. This is a scary virus, but it's not remotely close to end of the world territory. It would need to be several orders of magnitude more lethal for that to happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see deaths worldwide hit 6-7 figures eventually, or to see a global recession result. It's not good at all. But humanity will easily survive it on the whole and it could well not end up nearly that bad either, depending on response, how long medications take to be developed and become widely available, etc.

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Old 02-28-2020, 06:16 AM   #146
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Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds
Quote:
Some American beer drinkers are avoiding Corona, the beer, amid the deadly coronavirus outbreak, according to a new survey.

A surprising 38 percent of beer drinkers insisted that they would not, under any circumstances, buy Corona as the deadly virus spreads across the globe, according to the survey conducted by 5W Public Relations.
:
:
In fact, 14 percent of respondents who said they regularly consume Corona beer admitted in the survey they would not order the beverage in public.

CDC director downplays claim that coronavirus spread is inevitable
There was also some confusion as 16 percent of those surveyed said they were not sure whether the virus is related to Corona beer.

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Old 02-28-2020, 07:46 AM   #147
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Yeah, this isn’t Captain Trips. But it should be a real concern with older people with compromised immune systems. I’m worried for my 78-year-old father who is not in the best of health already.
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:01 AM   #148
NobodyHere
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 View Post
Some light hearted humor for this thread ... especially since futures are currently down -234 or .92%.

I typically check and update my spreadsheet on all my finances and investments at month-end. I'm going to skip it for Feb since it'll be too painful

Americans are avoiding Corona beer amid coronavirus outbreak, survey finds

I, too would be ashamed to order a Corona in public. But that was before the virus.
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:18 AM   #149
Arles
Grey Dog Software
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarcone View Post
Suspected case in Belleville, IL. That is a suburb of St. Louis. Which is my neck of the woods.

St. Louis county superintendents of school meeting to discuss plans if it hits here.

Am I wrong to be paranoid? This is kind of scary. One of the suggested end of the world scenarios is a virus hitting.
Yeah, that's my hometown and everyone is freaking out. Eventually, this is going to hit the US, but hopefully more is known by the time it really gains steam.
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Old 02-28-2020, 01:07 PM   #150
molson
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
This real-time Johns Hopkins map is pretty neat. Especially if you want to pretend this is all a video game.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
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