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View Poll Results: If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next
Normal transition of power. He meets with Biden, stays until 1/20, comes to inauguration, etc. 5 5.56%
He doesn't fight the result, but resigns prior to the inauguration. 2 2.22%
He fights the result but gives up shortly before the inauguration (let's define "shortly" as "some time after the EC meets on 12/14") 30 33.33%
He fights the result all the way to January 20th. Has to be physically removed. 12 13.33%
He fights the result for a short time, but gives up and resigns before the inauguration 6 6.67%
He fights the result for a short time, but gives up an then we have a normal transition as per option 1. 30 33.33%
Other. (You know you gotta specify this one.) 5 5.56%
Voters: 90. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-21-2020, 11:00 AM   #1
Ben E Lou
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If Trump Loses In November, What Do You Think Happens Next

Thought this would be an interesting split-out discussion, possibly for reference later. Poll coming...
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:09 AM   #2
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My guess is he will contest regardless if he loses by a small or large margin.

If large margin, doubt there will be any crisis regardless of how he tries to spin it. The GOP party will acknowledge that even if there is "perceived" irregularities, it didn't make a difference.

If its a small margin, there'll be a "crisis". Lawyers will get involved, possibly a recount etc, and maybe SCOTUS will get involved. But all of that will be resolved by Jan 20.

So like the past 3.5 years, lots of drama, words thrown out, scares about use of military etc. but bottom line, the republic will survive the last Trump crisis.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:12 AM   #3
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I see 2 options.

1. He loses by such a landslide that he resigns before the end of the year.

2. He fights the results and has to be physically removed on 1/20.

I just don't think this guy let's anything happen normally if he loses. He is going to do something crazy.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:13 AM   #4
JonInMiddleGA
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Answered, but honestly I think it's too early to guess with much confidence.

More predictable is what would happen to Biden in this scenario.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:14 AM   #5
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I think he litigates anything his lawyers thinks is remotely litigatable.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:18 AM   #6
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I'm torn between #2 (resign without a fight) and #5 (resign after a fight.) My tendency is to think there's little/no chance that he behaves well if he loses, but that he ends up realizing what's done is done, so the best path is to quit and let President Pence give him a nice blanket pardon.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:20 AM   #7
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I think he'll put up a show about illegal votes for his base but he'll give up and just leave on inauguration day. He'll pardon Bannon, Flynn and his former staffers. If he resigns it would be to get a pardon from Pence but I don't think Pence would do it. Republicans will finally start to turn on him after he loses.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:29 AM   #8
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Republicans will finally start to turn on him after he loses.
I used to think this way, but I'm feeling less sure of it as time goes on. More and more, R-only voters seem to be moving to becoming not as much "pro-Trump" as "Left-wingers aren't good people with whom we disagree. They are our ENEMY. And you're either for us or against us. Trump is definitely for us, so if you turn on Trump, you're also our enemy." And of course I firmly believe that most national politicians are little more than whores for power, so if they sense the same thing I'm sensing, I think they'll feel they need to stick with Team Right in order to keep their power.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:29 AM   #9
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He's going to file 87 lawsuits day after Election Day contesting the results, and will try to play them out as long as he can. If Dems win both Houses, he may stop earlier than if Repubs are still in control of one (or both) Houses. He'll wait and see what kind of reaction he gets from the MAGA crowd, and see if they finally give up on him or want to try to start another Civil War.

Let's not forget their may be unrevealed indictments coming for him in January, and other cases in NY with his taxes that could put him and members of his family in jail for a very long time. He's going to use whatever power of the presidency he can to prevent/delay it as long as he can. I just hope Biden/law enforcement are working on plans on what to do with him if he does resist the results. I hope journalists are watching he and his family's every move to get some idea of if he's planning on fleeing the country.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:31 AM   #10
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If he loses, I think he will complain about illegal voting, threaten lawsuits but not follow through, and will refuse to work with Biden on a transition but he won't resign and won't refuse to leave.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:33 AM   #11
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Trump's a coward, and that will be the deciding factor. He'll bluster, but he won't have the courage to risk being physically removed. I expect he'll throw a tantrum and skip the inauguration.

Honestly, I'm more worried about what happens if Trump wins the Electoral College. I don't know how many times the popular vote winner can lose and the country remain stable. At some point people will abandon a system that doesn't represent the will of the majority.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:47 AM   #12
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Let's not forget their may be unrevealed indictments coming for him in January, and other cases in NY with his taxes that could put him and members of his family in jail for a very long time. He's going to use whatever power of the presidency he can to prevent/delay it as long as he can.
This gets to the core of why I think he'd resign--to get a pardon.

Or (hadn't thought of this option until right now,) I suppose if he loses he could even try to cut a deal with the Biden team if he doesn't think Pence would pardon him. "Hey Joe, I'll spare the country from an ugly, messy, 2-month nightmare, be a good boy, and even tell team MAGA that the people have spoken, in return for no prosecution of me or anyone else in my family."
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:50 AM   #13
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Can't see him asking Biden for a favor. That would require admitting he's wrong which is something he's never done his entire life.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:04 PM   #14
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Funny I was just thinking about this question this morning myself. I think it is very likely even with the vote by mail suppression BS he losers at least by 2-3% popular vote and losers a few key states such as Florida, NC, Pennsylvania,Michigan and Minnesota that give Biden the EC victory.
I think "he fights the result all the way to January 20th. Has to be physically removed." and he stages as a patriotic act to his supporters. I think he then keeps traveling the country claiming he won and is the legitimate president to his base doing interviews and trying to stay in the media focus. He will set up shop in some place like Mel Largo and declare he is the rightful president as a modern day Jefferson Davis. I could see right wing domestic terrorist carrying out bombings and the like in his name too. The question and am not sure what happens is what will the federal government do in this sceanrio.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:07 PM   #15
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I used to think this way, but I'm feeling less sure of it as time goes on. More and more, R-only voters seem to be moving to becoming not as much "pro-Trump" as "Left-wingers aren't good people with whom we disagree. They are our ENEMY. And you're either for us or against us. Trump is definitely for us, so if you turn on Trump, you're also our enemy." And of course I firmly believe that most national politicians are little more than whores for power, so if they sense the same thing I'm sensing, I think they'll feel they need to stick with Team Right in order to keep their power.

I think what happens in the senate and local elections will be really telling. We all know Trump losses the popular vote barring anything really sinister happening, but if Dems crush it the way they did in 2018 on a more local level I think it's a symbol people may be tired of MAGA.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:22 PM   #16
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Full of sound and fury signifying nothing. Bunch of rants and tweets and threats and then nothing.
Not with a Bang but a Whimper....

and then my business goes in the toilet because a D President is never good for vertical construction...
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:41 PM   #17
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and then my business goes in the toilet because a D President is never good for vertical construction...

Do you do any telecom towers?
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:44 PM   #18
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The GOP won't change after one election. It's going to take multiple defeats before they reform. It's a long way off, but if Trump loses we'll get Cotton, Hawley, Trump Jr., etc. as GOP frontrnners for the nomination.

Right now, the younger you go in the GOP the more condense the crazy. Moderation won't come quickly.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:58 PM   #19
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If Trump loses (a big if, despite the demise of the USA), he will give up the fight in early January, then man up and hand over the keys as he should, albeit making an awkward scene about it.
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Old 08-21-2020, 12:59 PM   #20
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then man up

He's literally never done this. Don't know why he would start now.
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Old 08-21-2020, 01:36 PM   #21
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I see Trump whining and throwing a fit to rile his supporters up hoping for some sort of protests and rioting. The man wants love and adoration from his supporters so pushing them to protest and riot is a form a self validation. He'll also try to put public pressure on Barr and Congress to "investigate" the election, but nothing substantial comes of it. In the end, nearly everyone in congress is going to be sick of his shit and ready to move on. Some will publicly support him all the way out the door while privately giving him the kick that sends him out that door.
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Old 08-21-2020, 01:57 PM   #22
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I think he just complains for 2 months and then leaves at the end of the term. Well that's the hope. Going to guess there will be a lot of civil unrest though in that time.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:03 PM   #23
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and then my business goes in the toilet because a D President is never good for vertical construction...

I mean never mind the studies that range from "there is no difference" to "the economy is better under Democratic presidents"... I'm sure your "feeling" is right.

If you want justification to vote for Trump, you don't need it from us.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:12 PM   #24
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Other. Relatively normal transition but I think he's petty enough that he won't attend the inauguration etc. It also wouldn't surprise me if he finds a reason to leave the country on a 'foreign relations tour' sometime in January, then makes arrangements to never come back from a non-extradition country to avoid prosecution.

Plenty of fit-throwing and blaming, more than usual, but I don't see any way he fights it.

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Old 08-21-2020, 02:23 PM   #25
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Is it possible for him to lose and not dominate news cycles eventually?

I really hope at some point he's not a daily news story.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:26 PM   #26
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Yes. Every president eventually fades from the headlines. Even if Trump is out there tweeting like crazy, eventually that becomes much less important than what Biden, Congress, other nations, etc. are doing.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:29 PM   #27
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Is it possible for him to lose and not dominate news cycles eventually?

I really hope at some point he's not a daily news story.

Not unless someone convicts him of something prison-worthy with a gag order.

If he loses, he'll be on the phone with Fox and Friends in the mornings.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:30 PM   #28
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I am really torn on how I feel about the Biden administration and DOJ throwing the book at everything Trump.

On one hand, they are crooked AF and deserve to spend the rest of their lives in prison. Hell, most Trump supporters and enablers know they are guilty and hide behind the guise that as POTUS he should have absolute immunity, the rest feel like it is OK for him to break the law because the law is dumb.

On the other hand I don't think the first 2 years of the Biden administration should be consumed by this, and it will be, and detract from other policies and issues important to the american people. Plus it will come across as revenge to a large population and could haunt the Dems in 2024.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:39 PM   #29
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Can't see him asking Biden for a favor. That would require admitting he's wrong which is something he's never done his entire life.

Yeah can't see him admitting he's wrong ever, but try to get a deal from "snowflake" Joe, playing on his empathy and sympathy for the nation to spare them any more turmoil, while getting his precious family and himself off the hook for any federal charges? I can see him trying that, but NY is not going to back down with their cases I don't think. And after all the crap he took from Trump and the Republicans with Hunter/Ukraine (and the Rs will probably still try to do once he's elected), I can't really see him backing down here either.
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Old 08-21-2020, 02:50 PM   #30
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I am really torn on how I feel about the Biden administration and DOJ throwing the book at everything Trump.

They aren't going to do shit. Trump and all other political elite are above the law. There is a tacit agreement between both parties on this.
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:07 PM   #31
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Domestic terrorism is probably a given
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:08 PM   #32
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I wouldn't be shocked to see a literal civil war break out, so I'm going with physical removal.
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:33 PM   #33
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I mean never mind the studies that range from "there is no difference" to "the economy is better under Democratic presidents"... I'm sure your "feeling" is right.

If you want justification to vote for Trump, you don't need it from us.


#1 I'm not voting for Trump and if I did I wouldn't look to anyone for justification.

#2 Man I thought you knew me better than this? I'm not talking about the economy as a whole. The economy as a whole can be equal with certain segments down and others up. Ask anyone in the construction industry and I think you will hear a consistent theme. Horizontal Construction is typically up under D Executives and Vertcial Construction is down. Under R Executives it reverses and Vertical Construction is up while Horizontal is down.

This isnt a R good D bad statement.

I mean you could sale it and say that R's give huge tax breaks to Rich Evil Corps and they invest in facilities and D's spend money on public improvement projects like roads, bridges and pipe/water projects... Im not assigning a moral value to either belief. Im just telling you that in my now 20 year career, it tracks like a trailer behind a truck my best years there has been a Bush or a Trump in the white house and my worst there has been a Clinton or a Obama in the white house. I'd even be willing to show you Tax returns to substantiate this...
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Old 08-21-2020, 03:49 PM   #34
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He fights the result and wins back the presidency (unfortunately).
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:07 PM   #35
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If he resigns, I do not think that it will be a concession. I don't think that he will ever concede that he lost.

But I could see him complaining and moaning about non-existent fraud and, if it becomes clear that the GOP won't back him up, he will resign, saying that he won fair and square, but the media and corrupt Democrats stole it from him, and he's not going to be the chump who stays in and helps the lying cheating Democrats take over.

And (whether from NY or Florida or Russia) he spends his days on the news accusing the Democrats and media and spinless Republicans of stealing the election from him. And eventually it just becomes an article of faith among his base that he never really lost and Biden is not a legitimate president. (along with every judge Biden appoints not being a legitimate judge, etc.)
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:18 PM   #36
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I honestly don't understand the concern about stuff like civil war. We're nowhere near that point yet. Not saying it couldn't happen eventually, but it would take catastrophes the likes of which we have not yet approached for that to happen.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:25 PM   #37
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Along these lines, Trump not finishing his first term is 11c right now on PredictIt

That feels about right.

And I am tempted to throw some money at it.

I see him either winning and staying or losing and leaving early.
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Old 08-21-2020, 04:30 PM   #38
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Im just telling you that in my now 20 year career, it tracks like a trailer behind a truck my best years there has been a Bush or a Trump in the white house and my worst there has been a Clinton or a Obama in the white house.

Didn't mean to offend.

I would say that Rs DO give tax breaks but that they're ultimately meaningless in the grand scheme of construction and that Ds don't do near enough public works for my liking, but I'll defer to your expertise.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:04 PM   #39
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Didn't mean to offend.

I would say that Rs DO give tax breaks but that they're ultimately meaningless in the grand scheme of construction and that Ds don't do near enough public works for my liking, but I'll defer to your expertise.

I can't even argue that its based in reality.
It's often largely not. Ive got a project right now that would be a game changer for my company. Right in our wheelhouse but much, much larger than anything we've ever done. And its capital equipment costs not manpower that are mega-sized, meaning we will do the same work, but make more profit on a 5x scale,..The equipment they want has a 12-14 week manufacturer lead time then we need 3 weeks to install and commission it minimum.

The company ranks in the Fortune 100 - so not a mom and pop - they have asked us to sign a hold price agreement and agreed to pay a cancellation fee of 1.5% if they decide not to move forward. (This is an 8 figure contract so they are potentially going to pay me many multiples of the average annual salary to not do the work)...Price hold is through 11/15. We have been told by the project sponsor "If the Presidential incumbent wins we are green lighting, if not we will defer to Q3 2021 at the earliest"

This is the most notable example in my life, but not unique at all.
Again I cant speak to the validity of the sentiment, but I just know that regularly my customers - and maybe I have a skewed base, but it matches my peers observations as well- have more spending confidence under R Presidents.

Of course I did very well 08-16 as well. No one starved and I started this company and grew tremendously. I have confidence Ill be ok either way. It may change where and how we operate but we will adapt and zig and zag as we need to. And again - I dont anticipate today voting for Trump. But I do feel my business will be better if he wins.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:27 PM   #40
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I get it Cu Tiger. Companies do have to be cautious till they know how much taxes may go up, and will cost of employment go up.

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Old 08-21-2020, 05:37 PM   #41
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I voted for other. I think he fights the election through most of November/December and then flees the country in January prior to a country without a extradition treaty such as Russia, Samoa, or Vanuatu.
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Old 08-21-2020, 05:48 PM   #42
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I voted for other. I think he fights the election through most of November/December and then flees the country in January prior to a country without a extradition treaty such as Russia, Samoa, or Vanuatu.

And then, 200 years later when the island allows visitors again, people will marvel at the Trumpian descendants of Vanuatu and with their large size and thin orange skin.
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Old 08-21-2020, 11:01 PM   #43
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He loses, leaves, starts his own media network, announces his candidacy for 2024, and spends the next 4 years "rallying", never shuts up and basically trolls everyone.
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Old 08-22-2020, 07:31 AM   #44
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He loses, leaves, starts his own media network, announces his candidacy for 2024, and spends the next 4 years "rallying", never shuts up and basically trolls everyone.

Don't know about starting own media network but last part is a for sure.
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Old 08-22-2020, 08:02 AM   #45
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I really hope everyone just ignores him if he loses.
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Old 08-22-2020, 08:14 AM   #46
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I really hope everyone just ignores him if he loses.

People's inability to ignore Trump is how he became President in the first place.
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Old 08-22-2020, 01:32 PM   #47
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I voted #1, but I don't think he shows up for the inauguration, and has limited conversations with Biden...
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Old 08-22-2020, 01:49 PM   #48
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If he loses, I think he will complain about illegal voting, threaten lawsuits but not follow through, and will refuse to work with Biden on a transition but he won't resign and won't refuse to leave.

This fits me too, I guess I'm responding with option 3 above. Ever the optimist, this one.
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Old 08-22-2020, 01:56 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Izulde View Post
I wouldn't be shocked to see a literal civil war break out, so I'm going with physical removal.

I would have gone with the former being a higher possibility prior to the pandemic paranoia. That insanity has not skipped over any segment of the population so I don't know that critical mass with necessary resolve exists beyond skirmish capability at this point.
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Old 08-22-2020, 04:21 PM   #50
sterlingice
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If he has to be forcibly removed, who removes him?

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