The Trump Presidency – 2016

[JPhillips]

“The Republican party is about to make a massive national hero out of [the Kenosha gunman]. The central element of the Trump Republican party is the right of private deadly force to defend the racial order,”

David Frum

The most concise way to say it that I've seen.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Then, when you look at 2018 there isn't evidence of there being big numbers of Trump supporters that weren't polled either.

Maybe it's happening, but right now the evidence for it is very thin.

See, the thing about 2018 was that although the polls as a whole were more accurate, they still were overly favorable to Democrats in key states such as Michigan and Florida. The idea of shy Trump voters and accuracy of polling really only matters in those few key states, and those were states that polling got wrong in 2016 and 2018 (and show Trump behind again in 2020).

[thesloppy]

I expected the news of the Portland to take off like ugly wildfire today, and have been kind of surprised by the relatively muted national coverage, compared to Kenosha (though I'm certainly not complaining).

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

See, the thing about 2018 was that although the polls as a whole were more accurate, they still were overly favorable to Democrats in key states such as Michigan and Florida. The idea of shy Trump voters and accuracy of polling really only matters in those few key states, and those were states that polling got wrong in 2016 and 2018 (and show Trump behind again in 2020).

At least in FL, the polling was no worse than an average year, it's just that we don't talk about the 4% margin because most years it doesn't change the winner. I don't think anyone has suggested that there's a reason why FL and MI polls would be more incorrect or biased than other state-level polling.

I expect there will be a number of surprises with this election. Turnout is going to be very hard to predict. Mail-in voting is hard to predict. The GOP has been telling us they plan to have an unprecedented voter suppression campaign. But none of that means there's evidence of a 4 or 5 or 6 point Trump effect hidden from view. Again, maybe there is, but there isn't evidence to suggest that.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

See, the thing about 2018 was that although the polls as a whole were more accurate, they still were overly favorable to Democrats in key states such as Michigan and Florida. The idea of shy Trump voters and accuracy of polling really only matters in those few key states, and those were states that polling got wrong in 2016 and 2018 (and show Trump behind again in 2020).

Polling also was too favorable for the GOP in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada in 2018. In a normal year these things cancel themselves out.

[thesloppy]

I've been pretty securely in the "practically all the indicators point to Trump getting his ass kicked handily" camp for pretty much the past two years, but I hate to admit that all the chaos & open suppression has certainly dulled my confidence in just the past few weeks.

[JPhillips]

Two people familiar with the matter tell NBC News that FBI and DHS plan to continue in-person election security briefings to lawmakers about election-related cyber threats and disinformation—but not about the plans and intentions of nation-state adversaries.

JFC.

[JPhillips]

I don't want to get into a shooting war with the Russians, but they way they keep fucking with our military has to merit some sort of response. A few days ago there were injuries in a collision with a Russian APC, today Russian jets boxed in a B-52. In previous encounters Russian ships have nearly rammed US ships and Russian jets have radar locked US planes.

To my knowledge, the WH hasn't said a thing. Eventually one of these encounters is going to get seriously out of hand.

[RainMaker]

The President retweeted another Nazi today. Like real dress up as a Nazi and have a flag on the wall type. I feel like the press is grading Biden and Trump on different curves here.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't want to get into a shooting war with the Russians, but they way they keep fucking with our military has to merit some sort of response. A few days ago there were injuries in a collision with a Russian APC, today Russian jets boxed in a B-52. In previous encounters Russian ships have nearly rammed US ships and Russian jets have radar locked US planes.

To my knowledge, the WH hasn't said a thing. Eventually one of these encounters is going to get seriously out of hand.

Airborn intercepts are completely common. Both sides do it regularly and have been for over 40 years. I don't really see much to fear from the Russian bear militarily. Sure they can kill tons of people, but one to one they are no match. You're right about them provoking, but none of this behavior should be marked down as surprising.

[JPhillips]

They've done a lot lately including causing injuries. That incident by itself could have been really ugly if deaths were involved. They need to be told to stop before anything serious happens and we end up in some sort of conflict by mistake. The Russians can take over the U.S., but they can cause a lot of problems.

[bronconick]

I always check in with Clay Travis before I talk to a doctor.

[JPhillips]

A guy has a heart attack while driving, loses control of the car, crashes and dies from injuries sustained in the accident.

Travis would be pissed if the cause of death was listed as a heart attack.

And I guess there's never been an AIDS death.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Airborn intercepts are completely common. Both sides do it regularly and have been for over 40 years. I don't really see much to fear from the Russian bear militarily. Sure they can kill tons of people, but one to one they are no match. You're right about them provoking, but none of this behavior should be marked down as surprising.

I've read our submarines also play games. Think I read it after reading one of Clancy's books.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A guy has a heart attack while driving, loses control of the car, crashes and dies from injuries sustained in the accident.

Travis would be pissed if the cause of death was listed as a heart attack.

And I guess there's never been an AIDS death.

The "AIDS" thing I pointed out to someone on my FB, crickets.

This is a person I formerly considered smart.

What is going on anymore. I don't know.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A guy has a heart attack while driving, loses control of the car, crashes and dies from injuries sustained in the accident.

Travis would be pissed if the cause of death was listed as a heart attack.

And I guess there's never been an AIDS death.

"But we've had a significantly increase in cases TB, PCP, and KS. Weird"

SI

[JPhillips]

Herman's Cain twitter account posting that COVID isn't as deadly as the MSM said is maybe the peak of modern conservative thought.

[Atocep]

It appears Q is none other than Jim Watkins, owner of 8 Chan, Daily Stormer, and GAB (right wing Twitter knock off), and also a known pedophile supporter.

Edit: this has been the rumor for a long time, but it looks like someone was able to connect the website dots back him.

[JPhillips]

Joe Kennedy III is going to spend the day before the election deflecting over running an ad with Worcester mis-spelled.

I don't know how to spearat this, but I already thought Markey's authentic workig class accent was a huge part of his appeal. Having an ad team that can't spell MA cities surely won't help Kennedy cnvince people he's the real Masshole.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It appears Q is none other than Jim Watkins, owner of 8 Chan, Daily Stormer, and GAB (right wing Twitter knock off), and also a known pedophile supporter.

Edit: this has been the rumor for a long time, but it looks like someone was able to connect the website dots back him.

Maybe, maybe not. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if its him though:

Who Is QAnon? Was the Poster's Identity Revealed This Week?

[GrantDawg]

Stop by a rural gas station/general store out at a pretty busy crossroads. It is a popular site, with two how meal type take out resistants inside. 20-30 people inside and coming in and out. Not a single mask, other than mine. Not on a customer or employee.
I wonder why Georgia is failing at getting this under control.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Maybe, maybe not. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if its him though:

Who Is QAnon? Was the Poster's Identity Revealed This Week?

It's circumstantial evidence that it's him, but it more or less destroys the notion that it's a military intelligence team.

Unfortunately, it doesn't change anything. Watkins could come out and admit it's him and his believers would call him a deep state plant.

[Thomkal]

Very true

[albionmoonlight]

Is "the hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths directly attributable to Trump's gross incompetence could be classified differently" really the slam dunk argument that his people think it is?

[cartman]

The en banc panel rejects Flynn's petition 9-2, so it goes back to Judge Sullivan.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Stop by a rural gas station/general store out at a pretty busy crossroads. It is a popular site, with two how meal type take out resistants inside. 20-30 people inside and coming in and out. Not a single mask, other than mine. Not on a customer or employee.
I wonder why Georgia is failing at getting this under control.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

When 40%+ of the population is consistently fed a narrative that science and facts are not to be believed, you get the US in 2020.

At this point, COVID in the states has zero chance of getting under control and even when a vaccine comes you'll have all the anti-vaxx folks still susceptible.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by cartman

The en banc panel rejects Flynn's petition 9-2, so it goes back to Judge Sullivan.

As a legal matter, I am glad that the DC Circuit got this right.

As a practical matter, I think that J. Sullivan ends up granting the dismissal.

As a political matter, anyone who cares enough to be following the ins and outs of the Flynn case has already picked a side and made up their mind and is not going to have their vote swayed by the ins and outs of the Flynn case.

[Ksyrup]

The number of tweets I'm reading today about multiple doctored videos related to Biden being released/retweeted/supported by Trump, his campaign or other Republicans is astounding.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The number of tweets I'm reading today about multiple doctored videos related to Biden being released/retweeted/supported by Trump, his campaign or other Republicans is astounding.

While the entire GOP sticks their fingers in their ears and yells, I can't hear you!

[JPhillips]

dola

I'm sure this is okay, too.

Current and former national security officials are raising concerns over Attorney General William Barr's recent decision to remove the head of a Justice Department office that helps ensure federal counterterrorism and counterintelligence activities are legal – and replace him with a political appointee with relatively limited experience.

For much of the past decade, that little-known office has been led by Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brad Wiegmann, a 23-year career public servant, not a political appointee. But two weeks ago, Wiegmann, 54, was told he is being reassigned and replaced with a political appointee, according to a Justice Department spokesman and sources familiar with the matter.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Herman's Cain twitter account posting that COVID isn't as deadly as the MSM said is maybe the peak of modern conservative thought.

His employees were tweeting stuff like that while he was hooked up to a ventilator in a hospital too. Just galaxy brain shit.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Is "the hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths directly attributable to Trump's gross incompetence could be classified differently" really the slam dunk argument that his people think it is?

A lot of the people he's talking to, and some of those he's not, are still in the camp of believing more deaths were caused by the restrictions. I think the issue is politically he has too many supporters that would be turned off by the pro-shutdown POV, and that leaves him with only one note to play.

[Castlerock]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Is "the hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths directly attributable to Trump's gross incompetence could be classified differently" really the slam dunk argument that his people think it is?

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

A lot of the people he's talking to, and some of those he's not, are still in the camp of believing more deaths were caused by the restrictions. I think the issue is politically he has too many supporters that would be turned off by the pro-shutdown POV, and that leaves him with only one note to play.

I think a lot of the people he is talking to do not believe that there are "hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths". The great majority of those deaths are folks who would be dead anyway because people die every day in this country... even before Covid.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Castlerock

I think a lot of the people he is talking to do not believe that there are "hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths". The great majority of those deaths are folks who would be dead anyway because people die every day in this country... even before Covid.

This is a tremendous argument against healthcare.

[sterlingice]

Fox News top story right now

"WHAT ABOUT ANTIFA?
Biden condemns rioting, blasts Trump in fiery speech, but doesn’t mention radical violent leftists"

(in my head)
Fox News editor: "Remember when Trump got in trouble for not condemning the Neo Nazis in Charlottesville? That stuck on him better than a lot of attacks. Let's turn it back around on Biden."

I think this also goes back to the idea of "Biden needs to be able to make this a policing problem not a law and order problem". There's no way to actually spin stuff when one news network that is the main outlet for /a lot/ of people takes their talking points from the administration.

SI

[ISiddiqui]

It's like the right wing boogeyman.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Castlerock

I think a lot of the people he is talking to do not believe that there are "hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths". The great majority of those deaths are folks who would be dead anyway because people die every day in this country... even before Covid.

If those are the people he is talking to, then I think he is wasting his time.

Anyone who thinks that COVID isn't a problem is probably already a Trump supporter and already pretty motivated to vote.

He should be trying to reach out to the people who think it is a big problem but are open to different ideas about how best to handle it.

[JPhillips]

Trump defends Rittenhouse and the Portland caravan.

He's doing a good job of turning the looting into a negative for himself. There is no great plan, Trump just lashes out.

[Ksyrup]

That would require ideas and a plan. Beyond herd immunity, which is basically a plan for when you've done nothing for 6 months.

[Brian Swartz]

I think we're past the point now, at least for me, that the more incompetent Trump is the better. As much as you'd like to think otherwhise, there are still undecided people out there and the more reasons they have to vote for someone else the better. Spose in the end it doesn't matter that much because if Trump were to get elected again - well the country would deserve what it gets.

[Jas_lov]

Yeah, hopefully it costs him some voters. Looks like Trump got a little bounce from the convention and the lead is down to 7. I'd like to see it get back to 9-10. I just dont know how you could still be undecided after 4 years of this.

[Drake]

If you live in the middle of a red state like I do, and you listen to your neighbors, and you watch the sorts of YouTube videos that I do (and you read the comments)...I don't think that many people are undecided.

Everyone I know who in real life isn't a quiet, rural Democrat or independent -- and there are a vanishingly small number around me once I step off the university campus where I work -- is 100% convinced that Trump is going to win in a landslide.

Polls are wrong. (Much like people with COVID, they don't know anyone personally who's ever been polled, so chances are the numbers are just made up.) Democrats are a small crowd of vocal extremists and socialists who are trying to steal the election through fearmongering and media liars.

They believe they're winning by a large margin, and anything less is going to be a fraud.

[Brian Swartz]

Are you talking about the way you think things actually are, or the people around you think they are? I'm a little confused so some clarification would help.

[Drake]

Oh, I think Biden wins (all other things remaining equal between now and election day) and probably by a more substantial margin than my worry about it leads me to believe. Sorry, my post was kind of meandering. I've probably had a beer or two too many tonight to be completely coherent.

I'm talking about the conservative communities I travel in. They're the ones who are convinced Trump is going to win in a landslide. They can't seem to believe that there are people outside of college socialists and the mainstream media (and the deep state and the power elites, blah, blah) who would actually vote Democrat.

Understand that I live in a county where even the Democrats run as Republicans because that's the only way to get any votes.

Strangely enough, I also live in a community that has one of the largest, most active Pride organizations in the Midwest. It's not that they particularly like the gays...but these gays are our local kids, and we support our local kids in the things that are important to them, goddammit.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump defends Rittenhouse and the Portland caravan.

He's doing a good job of turning the looting into a negative for himself. There is no great plan, Trump just lashes out.

It gets his base riled up which is what matters. Republicans understand turnout matters and exciting the base does that. Democrats are still trying to convince the 6 never Trumpers to vote for Biden.

[JPhillips]

Trump has to expand his voters from 2016.

This isn't doing that.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump has to expand his voters from 2016.

This isn't doing that.

His base seems more locked in than they were in 2016. There's a ceiling of course but I think he hits it.

He also leads with independents. Dems can win because they have a massive party ID advantage but they haven't realized that in awhile.

[Ksyrup]

Fox News' lead headline is Trump's story about many people dressed in black with gear on a plane that an RNC attendee told him about coming to do big damage to DC. OK.

You can't even wear a belly shirt on a plane without getting kicked off, but sure, I believe there was a plane full of people in "gear" that raised no alarms at all.

At this point, Trump is doing all he can to scare people that I'm half-expecting during the debates that he's going to be like, "They are coming for you. In fact, I just saw one creep behind you, Mr. and Mrs. White People watching on TV... PROTECT YOURSELVES! THEY'RE IN YOUR HOUSE!"

[JPhillips]

You are way too fixated on one poll. I don't know if you're worried Biden will lose or hoping he will. Trump can win. He's the incumbent, and that gives him a huge advantage. But, right now, all the data we have says Biden is ahead narrowly to comfortably. Trump has less support now than in 2016. Trump's approval rating has never been positive. There are far fewer undecideds at this point than in 2016 and the gap between Biden and Trump is starting to be greater than the number of undecideds.

This isn't 2016.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

You are way too fixated on one poll. I don't know if you're worried Biden will lose or hoping he will. Trump can win. He's the incumbent, and that gives him a huge advantage. But, right now, all the data we have says Biden is ahead narrowly to comfortably. Trump has less support now than in 2016. Trump's approval rating has never been positive. There are far fewer undecideds at this point than in 2016 and the gap between Biden and Trump is starting to be greater than the number of undecideds.

This isn't 2016.

Psychologically, I think there's a few things going on.

1) About 10 years ago, I was driving, and a guy straight up ran a red light and t-boned the right side of my car. For about 5 years after that, I instinctively had a mini-freakout every time a car approached me from the right side. On the one hand, I know that it is pretty rare for someone to just slam into you. On the other, the brain's ability to overreact to getting hurt is pretty impressive.

2) As 538 has pointed out for the last 3.75 years, Clinton's lead was never that big. People thought of it as bigger than it was b/c of this general sense that Trump could never win. But, in hindsight, I think that we all feel like the polls showed Clinton up by 10 on November 1st.

3) The Electoral College advantage that Trump has causes us to feel like any Biden lead <4 is basically losing.

4) Natural polling errors cause us to feel like any lead under 3 (after taking away the 4 above) is basically a toss-up.

5) Ron DeSantis will have a lot to do with deciding who wins Florida.

6) Anything short of a Biden blowout will likely lead to months of riots and lawsuits as the GOP refuses to concede.

So, putting all that together, it feels like any poll showing Biden leading by less than 13 nationally and less than 7 in swing states is a good poll for Trump.

Rational? Not totally. But that's where it's coming from.