Predicting the Summer Olympics (sort of)

[SecretAgentMan]

​Hi all! For those who might not know me, my name is Jeff but I go by SAM on some sports forums. A hobby of mine is game programming, and I have for years been tinkering with an Olympics sim. In the past, I have run Olympics games on websites, but my program is in a bit of disrepair right now and it's not ready for that. However, I do want to resurrect that, and step one is seeing if my game can actually in fact predict the results of the Olympics with reasonable accuracy. I intend to test my game's results and compare them to some other prediction methods as well as the actual results of the Olympics.

So I figured I would share that endeavor with you!* I don't intend to get to all sports, but I am hoping to do what I can. My first predictions are for.....swimming. First, a data table, and then I will explain my process.



On the left are the countries, and their in-game rankings and rating. USA is the top-ranked swimming nation, Australia is 2nd, China is barely 3rd over 4th place Italy, and so on. My rankings are based on a combination of factors, including recent (and less recent) Olympics qualifications and medals, world championships qualifications and medals, and yearly results in worldwide swimming competitions.

The first projection I am looking at is simple: the recent results projections. Basically, who has the top swim times in each event THIS year. I am assuming top time of the year will win gold, second best time will win silver, and third-best time this year will win bronze.

The next projection I am looking at is historical results, though technically this is *recent* historical results. Basically, I averaged out the number of medals won by each country in swimming at 2020 Olympics, 2022 World Championships, and 2023 World Championships. I am combining three sets of results, so there are some rounding errors, which is why you see two separate *totals* listed. The rounded number of total medals and the actual fractional total.

Then, I am checking how MY game (Going for Gold, or GFG) works at projecting the results. Projection A is simple. I looked at the rankings of the athletes by event in the game. Top ranked is expected to win gold, second ranked is expected to win silver, and third ranked is expected to win bronze. I ran three separate trials and averaged, so once again there are some rounding errors.

Projection B is what happened when I actually used my game engine to simulate the results (using the generated athletes from Projection A). Once again, I averaged three separate trials and there are rounding errors.

******
THOUGHTS AND ANALYSIS

I am looking forward to seeing how my game does in this endeavor. I can't say that I feel supremely confident. The projections for GFG look....decent, but not great. Projection A I suspect will be a much better result than Projection B, but we will find out.

Some other things to watch out for when you watch the Olympics:

-The USA, Australia, and China are likely going to be the top three countries in the swimming medal table. However, will it be close at the top or not? The projections based on real-world data seem to show a good spread, but my GFG simulations gave the USA a huge advantage and minimized China's likelihood of even finishing top three. (I am almost certain they will)

-Will Ireland get a breakthrough? You'll notice that Ireland, which has not won any recent medals in swimming, is projected to win 2, but only in the recent results. They have a young athlete who has posted the top time in the world in two events this year, but who has never won a medal in anything before. (Daniel Wiffen) It will be interesting to see if he does. Currently, my program can't really model for "breakthrough athletes" such is this, which is why it may also be underestimating Hong Kong and Greece.

-Canada in 4th? My algorithms, which may be too heavily weighted towards the past 15-20 years, show Canada as 11th. Recent results show them more like 4th. (They had a breakthrough in 2020 and seem likely to continue that this year). Which will be more accurate in actual practice?

-Does France get any sort of home-field advantage? Neither of the real-world data projections like France's chance to do much. Will they benefit from hosting the games?

More updates as we get through the games. Thanks for reading!​

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

-Does France get any sort of home-field advantage? Neither of the real-world data projections like France's chance to do much. Will they benefit from hosting the games?

More updates as we get through the games. Thanks for reading!​

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I just wanted to comment on this. Since you are into the numbers you probably have it better than just my observation, but it seems like there is generally a "home water advantage" in swimming competitions. That doesn't mean they will dominate, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a few unexpected medals won for France.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I just wanted to comment on this. Since you are into the numbers you probably have it better than just my observation, but it seems like there is generally a "home water advantage" in swimming competitions. That doesn't mean they will dominate, but I would be surprised if there wasn't a few unexpected medals won for France.

I am also expecting some surprise French medals in swimming! That's one of the many reasons I am hoping to have a stable model, because that can help me eventually calculate what sort of boosts the "home country" gets in these sorts of events.

[SecretAgentMan]

Okay, time for more projections! Previously, I did a projection for swimming. This time, it's gymnastics. First, the detailed data table, then an explanation of what you can watch for when watching the games!



First off, a word about the projections. Recent results looks at who is likely to win a medal based on this year's top gymnastics scores. The historical precedent looks at the amount of medals won at the 2020 Summer Games, 2022 World Championships, and 2023 World Championships and averages them out. GFG A involves using my program to run 3 simulations and finding the top 3 athletes in each sport, then averaging the results. GFG B involves actually running 3 simulations of results with my program and averages the medal results (this is likely going to be the weakest projection in my opinion, but it's the one I am trying to make stronger)

Some things I'm looking for with this data:
-Are my GFG rankings and ratings any good? Unlike the swimming rankings, my data for Gymnastics is showing many of the top countries being very close together in terms of overall talent level. I don't think that's actually true. Both the real world projections point to strong dominance from USA, Japan, and China in Gymnastics, with other countries usually just getting 1 or 2 medals. Also, my rankings show Germany as being high up in the Gymnastics world, and the real-world data doesn't match that at all.

-What's going on with Italy and Brazil? The two real-world projections differ greatly here. Brazil has had lots of success with recent medals, but this year's scores and data show a bleak picture for Brazilian success at the Olympics. Italy, meanwhile, is the exact opposite. This year's scores and data show a medal haul unlike what Italy has seen in Gymnastics in recent memory. Does it actually go that way in Paris?

-First time medalists in Gymnastics? Ahmad Abu Al-Soud of Jordan has won medals in Pommel Horse at each of the last two world championships. Mind you, the country of Jordan has never even qualified a gymnast for the Olympic Games, much less won a medal. It will be interesting to see if he can break through. Other reasonable possibilities to get their country's first gymnastics medal are Carlos Yulo of the Phlippines and Kaylia Nemour of Algeria. Obviously, my GFG rankings do not indicate strength from these countries- I hope to be able to model "breakthrough" athletes like this someday.

-Obviously, Russia not being invited to the Olympics is going to matter here. Many of the countries that don't usually medal might stand a better chance here because of it

-Just how many countries will medal? I think that's probably one of the biggest differences between my game's model and the real-world models.

Next update will be a team sports projection which I hope to complete prior to the Opening Ceremonies. After that, I'm not sure what else will happen- maybe Athletics.

[Passacaglia]

I just want to say that an Olympics sim game sounds pretty awesome.

[CrimsonFox]

was watching Iraq and Ukraine play soccer last night.

[GrantDawg]

Is this our Olympic discussion thread? If it is, I am actually excited for the games this year. The last couple I have been sort of "meh" on, but for whatever reason I am a little excited to see some competition and the pageantry. I think Tik Tok is part of it, because my feed has been full of athletes checking into the Olympic village. People like Ilona Maher, whom I had never heard of till now, has made me want to watch Women's Rugby. She is so funny and endearing that I want to root for her.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I just want to say that an Olympics sim game sounds pretty awesome.

It's something I hope to make a full reality some day in the future. In the meantime, if you want to DM me an e-mail address, I can create a mailing list for a future beta test or release.

(That offer goes for anybody else reading as well)

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Is this our Olympic discussion thread? If it is, I am actually excited for the games this year. The last couple I have been sort of "meh" on, but for whatever reason I am a little excited to see some competition and the pageantry. I think Tik Tok is part of it, because my feed has been full of athletes checking into the Olympic village. People like Ilona Maher, whom I had never heard of till now, has made me want to watch Women's Rugby. She is so funny and endearing that I want to root for her.

I will certainly discuss plenty if others want to! I am big Olympics fan, though even more so for the winter Olympics. Still, because I am on vacation from my teaching job right now, I have plenty of time to watch. Spent the last couple of days watching a good bit of Rugby 7s and soccer. I feel for the Rugby 7s athletes, because 8 of the 12 men's teams have effectively been eliminated prior to the Opening Ceremonies of the games at this point. I get that they are doing it so that they can host the even in the Stade du France, but that still feels bad.

[CrimsonFox]

Rugby is fascinating. At first I"m like....what's the point of this game. Why does US even have a team. Then I thought. Huh...this is much simpler than all our american bullshit sports. I like it. Run back and forth. Pass it to people. Tackle them. Runrunrunrunrun. Dive Dive Dive! GOAL!
I can dig it.

[larrymcg421]

Rugby 7s is super fun to watch. Quick 14 minute matches with lots of action.

[GrantDawg]

Overnight in France, there was a series of what looks like coordinated arson attacks on the high-speed rail systems. It has affected 250,000 passengers, and the company that runs the system says it could carry through the whole weekend.

https://apnews.com/article/france-tr...source=Twitter

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[NobodyHere]

Canadians can not be trusted

The Paris Olympics Already Has Its First Drone Controversy | HuffPost Sports

[Ksyrup]

When I read that Gojira was going to perform at the Olympics, I immediately blew it off, assuming they'd be shown performing in some alley for approximately 3.6 seconds on the way to a commercial break. So I was shocked to see them get a full feature with Marina Viotti, an opera singer who dabbles in a bunch of different genres and has a metal band of her own (Soulmaker).

That may well have been the most widely-shown metal performance since Metallica famously performed One at the 1989 Grammy's, only to lose the Best Heavy Metal Band Grammy to Jethro Tull.

[SecretAgentMan]

Okay, time for my next projection. This time, it's all 7 of the major "team sports" all at once. This may or may not be the final projection of the games, as I currently have no database for Athletics, and I'm not sure if I can get it built in the next week before Athletics competitions start. We'll see. Regardless, you will notice that this data table is set up a bit differently than the others. Here it is!


​​​

First off, a word about the projections. World Rankings looks at who is likely to win a medal based on the current team rankings in that sport. (The International Handball Federation does not currently keep rankings for its member organizations) The Historical Precedent projection looks at the results of the previous Olympics and any world championships/world cups in that sport that have taken place since then and averages them. GFG A is basically a look at the top 3 teams according to the algorithm my program (Going for Gold) uses, which also takes into account past results.

I did not use the GFG B projection (which runs an actual sim using my game) because I know that my team sports are very broken right now and are not simming anywhere close to accurately.

Now, a few thoughts about the projections:
-A few of these are sort of obvious. For example, any projection that doesn't predict the USA to win both men's and women's basketball is clearly broken. Does that mean they will? Of course not. But every bit of data shows that that is what SHOULD happen. (US Women, if they win, will get their 8th consecutive gold medal)

-What order for Women's 3x3 basketball? All three projections like China, France, and the USA, but in a different order each time

-If you're looking for another "sure thing", you would be wise to consider backing Netherlands in the Women's Field Hockey Tournament.

-Conversely, there's already a chance that all three models on the men's soccer tournament will be wrong, given that Argentina already lost their first match to Morocco and is going to need to come from behind at this point. (Still doable, obviously)

-Speaking of soccer...my projections like the US Women's chances to win, but none of the major tournaments have gone their way in the last four years, and the FIFA ranking doesn't favor them either. I will be keeping an eye on that.

-Literally all three projections suggest New Zealand over Australia (with France for Bronze) in the women's Rugby 7s tournament. Is it actually going to go that way, or might France get a bump from playing at home?

-None of the volleyball projections agree. I'm not sure what to make of that. Worth keeping an eye on.

-I should finish by saying that I tend to think that very short team tournaments like we have in the Olympics can be a bit of a crapshoot, so take all of this data with a grain of salt. It's all likely to be a bit more chaotic than what you see here.

Again, possibly one more update in a week or so before the Athletics get going. Enjoy the games!

[JPhillips]

The French flag smoke on the Austerlitz bridge was cool af.

[GrantDawg]

Agreed. Floating the teams down the river was such a great idea.

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[Ghost Econ]

Watched it earlier. If you're wondering, Kelly does not get better as the show goes on.

[GrantDawg]

So is this guy running across the roofs the new Assassin's Creed?

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[Lathum]

This shit
Is so weird.

[GrantDawg]

Just got to the part you were talking about, Ksyrup. This is awesome!

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[Lathum]

Wtf is up with the people swinging on poles and how are they attached.

[GrantDawg]

I know a menage a trois is very French, but I didn't expect it in the opening ceremony. They should have had it as the new competition.

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[sovereignstar v2]

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Just got to the part you were talking about, Ksyrup. This is awesome!

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It was amazing. One of the metal rags posted a note about how metalheads across the world were losing their shit on social media.

Once the official video comes out, I'll have to watch it again.

[sovereignstar v2]

Yeah, the metal and the setting kicked ass

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I know a menage a trois is very French, but I didn't expect it in the opening ceremony. They should have had it as the new competition.

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favorite post about anything ever

[SecretAgentMan]

Very weird show, but honestly, I really liked it. So many of these ceremonies just kind of blend together, but with the rain and the combination of the boats and the unique performances and the floating cauldron...yeah, this one's actually memorable.

[GrantDawg]

It is fun watching women's water wrestling.....what's that? Water polo? Sorry, I didn't see horses.

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[albionmoonlight]

Random take:

No sport should be in the Olympics unless an Olympic gold medal is considered the highest achievement in that sport.

[CrimsonFox]

poor japanese gym guy

[albionmoonlight]

Wemby really does look/play like someone got silly with create-a-player on a video game

[SecretAgentMan]

France and Fiji about to start the final for Men's Rugby 7s. Should be good for the atmosphere alone- home nation, huge crowd, and Fiji is 2-time defending Gold Medalists

[JonInMiddleGA]

Olympics: Canada docked 6 points, coaches banned over spy scandal - ESPN

[GrantDawg]

That Rugby final was fun. Antione Dupont! Antione Dupont!

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[SecretAgentMan]

Forgot to add Water Polo to the team sports yesterday, so here's a table that includes that!

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That Ruby final was fun. Antione Dupont! Antione Dupont!

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The French team was fantastic. Fiji couldn't be tackled by anybody else, and it felt like the French just overwhelmed them.

(Also, the play Dupont made at the start of the second half was fantastic)

[GrantDawg]

Omg! So the guy running with the torch was the character from Assassin's Creed! Ubisoft is based in France.

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[Ksyrup]

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.

[Critch]

Archery is like the Summer Olympic answer to Curling. Something you only see every four years but it's great.

China womens team just about hanging on in the gold medal final against the favorites South Korea.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.

It seems like TV coverage of the Olympics in the internet era has ALWAYS been horrible. Ironic that they were able to present it so much better back in the disconnected days of monoculture and 3 broadcast networks.

[GrantDawg]

Watching the Women's Gymnastics qualifiers. Man, France had a bad night. They were coming off winning Bronze in Worlds, but they just absolutely choked in front of the home crowd.

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[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Watching the Women's Gymnastics qualifiers. Man, France had a bad night. They were coming off winning Bronze in Worlds, but they just absolutely choked in front of the home crowd.

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Yeah you don't usually see the whole team fall apart like that. feel bad for the french fans who won't get to see them compete for the gold.

[GrantDawg]

Brazil will be the team that will provide the US a challenge. The US should win Gold as long they stay clean.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Critch

Archery is like the Summer Olympic answer to Curling. Something you only see every four years but it's great.

China womens team just about hanging on in the gold medal final against the favorites South Korea.

I remember watching it in prior Olympics, it was beautiful how you see the arrow sailing thru the air.

But somehow, I kinda wish they were using less high tech, modern bows & arrows.

[Ksyrup]

The Nadal/Djokovic match is sad to watch. Nadal might pick it up at some point but he's down 5-0. Not only is he on the downside of his career but still working back from injury. This almost feels unfair and slightly uncomfortable to watch.

[GrantDawg]

IT WAS THE .....SALMON MOUSSE....

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[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The way NBC has set up its coverage is garbage. I can't tell what's live and what's not, and I can't tell if everything live is being shown on Peacock or some things being held back and shown elsewhere.

This morning, I wanted to watch some tennis and they have a multiview with 4 "live" screens. I clicked on the Ruud match as they were showing it "live" on the multiscreeen and guess what? Coverage ended. What the hell were they showing it "live" for if it ended? So I clicked over to the Tsitsipas match - CDN error (whatever that means). Hey, Rafael Nadal is playing and it shows it started 20 minutes ago! Oh nevermind, just a picture of the Eiffel Tower and "coverage hasn't begun" message.

WTF.

I have watched most of the Olympics coverage in my home office since I got home. I have the Olympics schedule page on ESPN open on one tab to help guide me to the events I want to watch. Then I switched to either Peacock(most of the time) or NBC(rarely) to catch the events live. Peacock tends to be rather clear as to what is live and what is "encore".

[miami_fan]

The reactions of the three medal winners in the men's team gymnastics final is amazing. Gold in tears, Silver very somber, and Bronze overjoyed.

It is all in the expectations.

[RainMaker]

Chase Budinger playing beach volleyball in the Olympics is pretty cool.