The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Edward64]

What a crazy election, one for the books. Here are my hopes & predictions for his presidency

Hopes:

(1) Don’t start a nuclear war
(2) Secure the borders and reform immigration (somehow)
(3) Greatly reduce ISIL, resolve the Syrian war
(4) Strengthen our relationships with friends
(5) Reduce our dependence on global oil, encourage alternate fuels
(6) Balance the budget and reduce the deficit
(7) Grow the economy & stock market

Predictions:

TBD

I’ve been on the losing side before and TBH this one hurts a lot. But this is our democratic process in action.

Welcome to a brave new world. It will be an interesting 4 years.

I do really hope Trump "makes America great again".

[Peregrine]

That #3 "resolving" is probably as tough as the rest combined.

[PilotMan]

This thread is useless without a poll I can wait 4 years to vote on.

[Edward64]

I'll setup a poll but lets give it a little while for emotions to settle

[Butter]

Edward, I'm with you in the other thread as having been terribly disappointed from a results standpoint. I am also somewhat with you in that I think this is going to be a fascinating presidency to live through. Although I am a bit more pessimistic in how it plays out than you perhaps. This is a terrible time from a world history standpoint to become isolationist from a trade standpoint, or conversely to attempt to go even more aggressively after ISIS.


And I'll re-ask the questions I asked in the General Election thread:

How does Trump actually govern? So many Republicans distanced themselves from him. Do they kiss the ring and fall in line with his policy? Who is in a Trump cabinet? Who will be making all the decisions, when Trump himself seems so clearly disinterested in much else than the attention this affords him.

And other questions:

How far does the GOP Congress actually let him go with some of these policies? Is he really getting a wall, or can he back out of it by saying "well, we couldn't get Mexico to pay for it after all"? Is he really getting a 30% tax cut? Is he really getting criminalization of abortion and jailing young potential mothers who abort? Is Obamacare coming down? How bad will race relations get... will we really get "stop-and-frisk"? Increased racial profiling? Even so far as a ban on Muslims entering the country?


All I can say now is to the Trump supporters: you're getting what you want. Let's see if it lives up to your expectations. My bet is that it won't. America may be going to some dark places in the years ahead. But then again, maybe not.

[panerd]

A Trump presidency would have been a lot more fun without control of both houses. Just like the Democrats have some pretty grand ideas sometimes (i.e. $$$$) I think we will see the Republicans do some expensive things as well. 2018 can't come soon enough for at least a balanced government.

As far as Trump goes I don't know he will be as bad as everyone thinks. Ronald Reagan was an actor, Obama has pretty much zero experience... Not comparing him to either but I don't know if the executive experience thing really matters as much as people seem to think. I share the fear of his massive ego and nuclear war but I'm pretty sure he cares more about his own life and his family's than he does about winning a nuclear showdown. God I hope I'm right on that one!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Butter

All I can say now is to the Trump supporters: you're getting what you want. Let's see if it lives up to your expectations.

Oh I don't think there's any real question that it will come up far short of desires at least, and expectations probably. Hell, my expectations are among the lowest of anyone who voted for him most likely & I'm not even sure those will be met.

He's got a potential two-year hedge for that though: whatever reluctant GOP congressmen are left will be a large primary target two years from now. I suspect they'll be the "coordinators" who get fired and extend the "head coach" lease on life.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

He's got a potential two-year hedge for that though: whatever reluctant GOP congressmen are left will be a large primary target two years from now. I suspect they'll be the "coordinators" who get fired and extend the "head coach" lease on life.

Isn't that it though? I mean, how will the system change (will it?) so that all these politicians get voted out? That's the change that everyone says won last night. Incumbents still rule. He ran on all of them being bad. Is it now that only the (D)'s are bad, and the rest can stay?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Isn't that it though? I mean, how will the system change (will it?) so that all these politicians get voted out? That's the change that everyone says won last night. Incumbents still rule. He ran on all of them being bad. Is it now that only the (D)'s are bad, and the rest can stay?

I expect it'll be nothing short of all-out war on them honestly (I certainly hope so at least) And here's the tricky part: they can either fight and be out on their ear as the next public enemy #1 OR they can bend to the will of the people.

Many of them have shown a willingness to capitulate in the past, I suspect a lot will now as well.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I expect it'll be nothing short of all-out war on them honestly (I certainly hope so at least) And here's the tricky part: they can either fight and be out on their ear as the next public enemy #1 OR they can bend to the will of the people.

Many of them have shown a willingness to capitulate in the past, I suspect a lot will now as well.

What happens if they turn the tables and convince Trump that he needs them as much as they need him? Given the way that Bush II fell victim to his fathers advisors, the way that Obama fell victim to the old guard Dems in the House and Senate who totally fucked his first term, you have to have some fear of that happening again.

[PilotMan]

I really hope that Trump really gets rid of all of those pesky government regulators like the FDA, SEC, EPA, FTC, FAA, and CPSC.

No government regulation will totally mean a better government for all.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I really hope that Trump really gets rid of all of those pesky government regulators like the FDA, SEC, EPA, FTC, FAA, and CPSC.

No government regulation will totally mean a better government for all.

Who are we to tell people that they can't fly planes wherever they want, or to dump toxic waste wherever they please? Tyrants!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What happens if they turn the tables and convince Trump that he needs them as much as they need him? Given the way that Bush II fell victim to his fathers advisors, the way that Obama fell victim to the old guard Dems in the House and Senate who totally fucked his first term, you have to have some fear of that happening again.

Then he's a one-term president unless the Ds come up with a stupifyingly horrific candidate.

His leash is almost certainly shorter than he thinks it is (although I suspect, given how well he understood the electorate, he may understand more closely than we'd give him credit for on first blush). The same people who cast their hopes with him & showed up yesterday will sit the next one out if he turns into "just the same ol' do-nothing".

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Then he's a one-term president unless the Ds come up with a stupifyingly horrific candidate.

Have I got a candidate for you! Maybe you've heard of her...

[MrBug708]

Supreme Court nomination list just totally changed

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

(1) Don’t start a nuclear war
(2) Secure the borders and reform immigration (somehow)
(3) Greatly reduce ISIL, resolve the Syrian war
(4) Strengthen our relationships with friends
(5) Reduce our dependence on global oil, encourage alternate fuels
(6) Balance the budget and reduce the deficit
(7) Grow the economy & stock market

1 Probably not, but I worry about NATO and our Pacific alliances. I think he's willing to completely change our treaty partners.

2 The wall won't happen, at least not in four years. He'll claim fencing and increased patrols/surveillance was what he meant all along.

3 The second part might happen, but at the expense of cozying up to Russia.

4 See #1. He's been boasting about pissing off allies for two years.

5 LOL He just recently called for a ban on government funding of alternative energies.

6 Double LOL His tax plan alone adds nearly 1 trillion a year to the deficit and he's also calling for lots of increased spending.

7 ? But after almost eight years of expansion I would expect a recession soon.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Many of them have shown a willingness to capitulate in the past, I suspect a lot will now as well.

Please meet the the senator from Florida, Marco Rubio.

[PilotMan]

Well any discussion of the R's tempering Trump was just thrown out the window with Ryan's speech basically saying the entire Republican party is now all in. I guess that's the position he should be in, all is forgiven, no harm, no foul, look what I found!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Well any discussion of the R's tempering Trump was just thrown out the window with Ryan's speech basically saying the entire Republican party is now all in. I guess that's the position he should be in, all is forgiven, no harm, no foul, look what I found!

This thread is going to be awesome.

Regarding your post, I don't think it means much. The GOP may rally behind Trump and do extremely well. Or he may do something ridiculously stupid and they put a candidate up against him in four years.

It's like a political version of the Sopranos. Tony just got the top spot. We'll see if he'll handle it well or go down in a ball of flames trying to eliminate his enemies.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Butter

Have I got a candidate for you! Maybe you've heard of her...

Nobody wanted Hillary on their softball team as a child. She was a first basemen, but she kept dropping the ball.

[molson]

My hope is that Trump really doesn't have any strong policy convictions (other than possibly things that have impacted his businesses) and that he'll surround himself with competent conservatives who may have been overlooked by the establishment, but who might have something to offer.

I think his Supreme Court appointments might be surprisingly solid and moderate. I don't think he's on some mission against abortion and gay marriage, I think he might not care much either way. He may be more interested in looking smart here and appointing on merit.

More of a hope than a prediction, but I hope that he has less political loyalty than any president we've had in a long time, and that could lead to some unexpected positive things in terms how the government operates and how the branches interact.

We get a re-examination/reset, short of a revolution, of how we do things as a country in business and politics. Trump is such a wild card and we don't know what he'll do and what, if anything, he really believes in, so these mechanisms can't just run on auto-pilot.

I hope he's concerned about his legacy and how he's remembered and he doesn't do anything drastic that carries a high risk of catastrophe.

Clinton just said something about being open minded and giving him the chance to lead, and I hope we can try to do that.

[Butter]

I think that one of the things that Trump won on was his "outsider" status. If he just doubles down on working with all of the same old GOP faces, I would think he would lose that luster rather quickly.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by molson

My hope is that Trump really doesn't have any strong policy convictions (other than possibly things that have impacted his businesses) and that he'll surround himself with competent conservatives who may have been overlooked by the establishment, but who might have something to offer.

I think his Supreme Court appointments might be surprisingly solid and moderate. I don't think he's on some mission against abortion and gay marriage, I think he might not care much either way. He may be more interested in looking smart here and appointing on merit.

More of a hope than a prediction, but I hope that he has less political loyalty than any president we've had in a long time, and that could lead to some unexpected positive things in terms how the government operates and how the branches interact.

We get a re-examination/reset, short of a revolution, of how we do things as a country in business and politics. Trump is such a wild card and we don't know what he'll do and what, if anything, he really believes in, so these mechanisms can't just run on auto-pilot.

I hope he's concerned about his legacy and how he's remembered and he doesn't do anything drastic that carries a high risk of catastrophe.

Clinton just said something about being open minded and giving him the chance to lead, and I hope we can try to do that.

This sums up my thoughts/hopes as well and to be honest I'm not sure how it isn't a similar list for the vast majority who voted for him either.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Well any discussion of the R's tempering Trump was just thrown out the window with Ryan's speech basically saying the entire Republican party is now all in. I guess that's the position he should be in, all is forgiven, no harm, no foul, look what I found!

He STILL has to go IMO.

Few Trump voters have any confidence in the man, few NeverTrumpers would have any after he rolls over. I can't see how he's got any weight with anyone whatsoever under the circumstances.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

He STILL has to go IMO.

Few Trump voters have any confidence in the man, few NeverTrumpers would have any after he rolls over. I can't see how he's got any weight with anyone whatsoever under the circumstances.

I honestly believe you're setting yourself up for a massive disappointment, but I think you already know that.

[wustin]

I hope he writes a sequel to:

[miked]

Originally Posted by molson

My hope is that Trump really doesn't have any strong policy convictions (other than possibly things that have impacted his businesses) and that he'll surround himself with competent conservatives who may have been overlooked by the establishment, but who might have something to offer.

I think his Supreme Court appointments might be surprisingly solid and moderate. I don't think he's on some mission against abortion and gay marriage, I think he might not care much either way. He may be more interested in looking smart here and appointing on merit.

More of a hope than a prediction, but I hope that he has less political loyalty than any president we've had in a long time, and that could lead to some unexpected positive things in terms how the government operates and how the branches interact.

We get a re-examination/reset, short of a revolution, of how we do things as a country in business and politics. Trump is such a wild card and we don't know what he'll do and what, if anything, he really believes in, so these mechanisms can't just run on auto-pilot.

I hope he's concerned about his legacy and how he's remembered and he doesn't do anything drastic that carries a high risk of catastrophe.

Clinton just said something about being open minded and giving him the chance to lead, and I hope we can try to do that.

How can he do any of this and be re-elected? Jon represents the average Trump voter and look at what he said above. He's already surrounded himself with Giuliani, Christie, Cruz, and other establishment people. He's all in on his gamble.

[molson]

Originally Posted by miked

How can he do any of this and be re-elected? Jon represents the average Trump voter and look at what he said above. He's already surrounded himself with Giuliani, Christie, Cruz, and other establishment people. He's all in on his gamble.

Maybe he gets a few high-profile wins on immigration, dismantling Obamacare, cutting taxes, cutting some spending, and that's enough to make him feel either that he can win in 2020, or that he can walk away with his head held high.

But, it's a good question, and all I can hope for is my best-case scenario, I can't argue that it's likely.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miked

How can he do any of this and be re-elected? Jon represents the average Trump voter and look at what he said above. He's already surrounded himself with Giuliani, Christie, Cruz, and other establishment people. He's all in on his gamble.

To be fair, I'm going to draw at least one key distinction between me and what I figure is about 60% of them: I don't have any more confidence that he accomplishes anything particularly useful than I had that he'd get the knockout with his puncher's chance.

They do.

The majority really do seem to believe -- whether truly or simply whistling past the graveyard -- that this is the awakening of America, that wrongs will be made right again, and so forth.

If that turns out to not be the case, they're going to take it very hard & very poorly and "Fuck Trump" will become a popular bumper sticker in some districts that he won last night.

The disaster that was Gov. Sonny Perdue in Georgia pretty much ruined me for ever actually believing in an elected official doing any good again. Others are less cynical.

[JPhillips]

He's not going to introduce any legislation. He'll have Pence work with congress and then he'll take credit for everything he signs. He largely won't care what it is.

edit: The result will be a very far-right economic agenda, but that's because that's what will come to his desk. There's no evidence he really cares about policy one way or the other.

[tarcone]

Well, since the man has never governed, I imagine there isnt much evidence about how he feels about policy.

[JPhillips]

There's plenty of evidence that he feels all sides of every policy.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

2 The wall won't happen, at least not in four years. He'll claim fencing and increased patrols/surveillance was what he meant all along.

You are probably right but I'm personally hoping for a real wall per my comments in the other thread.

[Edward64]

I remember when Obama won, there was alot of heartache, angst (and venom) from the more radical right. I certainly do not feel that with Trump but I am finding it hard to watch the news right now. I guess I now know a little of how they felt.

I have some FB friends who can't let it go. I don't get into political stuff on FB but I do wish I could tell them to get with the program and give Trump the benefit of doubt (for now).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The majority really do seem to believe -- whether truly or simply whistling past the graveyard -- that this is the awakening of America, that wrongs will be made right again, and so forth.

If that turns out to not be the case, they're going to take it very hard & very poorly and "Fuck Trump" will become a popular bumper sticker in some districts that he won last night.

I don't know about this. I don't think they will blame Trump, they'll have plenty of other scapegoats. Trump is as teflon (among his supporters) as I've seen.

[Edward64]

Here's a version of Trump's cabinet

US election 2016 results: Meet President Trump's possible cabinet - BBC News

1) Newt - State
2) Rudy - Attorney General
3) Priebus - Chief of Staff
4) Christie - Commerce
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Flynn - National Security Advisor
7) Mnuchin - Treasury

Who will be in Trump's Cabinet? A few possibilities

1) Rudy - Attorney General
2) Newt/Corker - State
3) Carson - Surgeon General
4) Flynn - NSA or Defense
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Priebus - Chief of Staff
7) Mnuchin - Treasury
8) Christie - Justice

Meet Trump's Cabinet-in-waiting - POLITICO

1) Christie/Bolton - State
2) Mnuchin - Treasury
3) Sessions/Hadley/Talent - Defense
4) Rudy - Attorney General
5) Lucas/Palin - Interior

In the theme of shaking things up and being "tougher" internationally, I do like Newt.

Christie should be rewarded for his loyalty but can see Dems making Bridgegate his albatross. Would Trump want that? Maybe not State but a lessor cabinet role.

Rudy is another that should be rewarded for his loyalty. Not sure why but he scares me some as Attorney General. To his credit, I think he would be tough on crime and domestic terrorism.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Here's a version of Trump's cabinet

There's also talk of the sheriff from Milwaukee (name escapes me atm) getting the DHS job, although thinking about it a bit more I'd prefer to see him at DoJ I think.

Seeing Newt as SoS makes me wish Zell Miller was younger.
Love the idea of Rudy as AG, at least on paper.
Also not wild about moving Sessions out of the Senate.
Would prefer Christie be nowhere near anything frankly.
The Preibus as Ch of Staff surprises me more than any name on the lists.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Here's a version of Trump's cabinet

US election 2016 results: Meet President Trump's possible cabinet - BBC News

1) Newt - State
2) Rudy - Attorney General
3) Priebus - Chief of Staff
4) Christie - Commerce
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Flynn - National Security Advisor
7) Mnuchin - Treasury

Who will be in Trump's Cabinet? A few possibilities

1) Rudy - Attorney General
2) Newt/Corker - State
3) Carson - Surgeon General
4) Flynn - NSA or Defense
5) Sessions - Defense
6) Priebus - Chief of Staff
7) Mnuchin - Treasury
8) Christie - Justice

Meet Trump's Cabinet-in-waiting - POLITICO

1) Christie/Bolton - State
2) Mnuchin - Treasury
3) Sessions/Hadley/Talent - Defense
4) Rudy - Attorney General
5) Lucas/Palin - Interior

In the theme of shaking things up and being "tougher" internationally, I do like Newt.

Christie should be rewarded for his loyalty but can see Dems making Bridgegate his albatross. Would Trump want that? Maybe not State but a lessor cabinet role.

Rudy is another that should be rewarded for his loyalty. Not sure why but he scares me some as Attorney General. To his credit, I think he would be tough on crime and domestic terrorism.

Looks like a Who's Who of the GOP from like 10-15 years ago. I thought Trump was an "outsider". I guess I would rather see these guys than Eric Trump: State, Ivanka: Chief of Staff, George Ross: Press Secretary...

[Logan]

Originally Posted by panerd

Looks like a Who's Who of the GOP from like 10-15 years ago. I thought Trump was an "outsider".

I'm legitimately curious as to how this plays out with his supporters (if it plays out).

[Edward64]

Don't quite know Trump's domestic policy yet, I think much of what he said was for the consumption of his base and things may change some.

However, I have been critical of Obama's foreign policy. Long term I do think China is public enemy #1 and we need to counteract it ... so looking forward to us being more tough with them (which I believe Newt can do). TPP was to bring the asian countries closer to us and if not TPP, something else needs to be done.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm legitimately curious as to how this plays out with his supporters (if it plays out).

From the various lists, I imagine most will go over okay.
Newt has had some questionable moments in recent years but I think I may be more aware of those (the Georgia connection) than the average voter

Christie will draw some furrowed brows but probably gets the "well, it's his cabinet so if he trusts him ... " exception until he screws something up

Many are low enough profile (Lucas, Mnuchin) that they're just another name, pending their performance.

The rest are mostly reasonably well regarded afaik.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by wustin

I hope he writes a sequel to:

It will naturally be called "Don't call it a comeback! I was here all along"

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I remember when Obama won, there was alot of heartache, angst (and venom) from the more radical right. I certainly do not feel that with Trump but I am finding it hard to watch the news right now. I guess I now know a little of how they felt.

FWIW, watching and reading the news again isn't that painful anymore. I guess I'm almost over it

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just had a thought though ... JBL for Treasury maybe?

[JonInMiddleGA]

On a lighter note, I've just had a very enjoyable timewasting experience on FB.

WWE Hall of Famer Trump's cabinet ... as filled by wrestling personalities.

Give it a try on your own time, it can be quite amusing

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by miked

How can he do any of this and be re-elected? Jon represents the average Trump voter and look at what he said above. He's already surrounded himself with Giuliani, Christie, Cruz, and other establishment people. He's all in on his gamble.

I'll just chime in here that I disagree with you.

I think Jon (and I believe he will readily admit this) is on the far right hand side of what the party is and what most of the republican voters are.

I think the average Trump voter in this election hated both candidates, but didn't want the same old politics. People are pissed and they want change any way they can get it at this point. I don't agree that this is the best way to go, but it's very clear what happened.

The average Trump voter did what the average Hillary voter did. They had to decide of they wanted to drink kerosene and light themselves on fire or if they wanted to drink raw sewage and put a gun to their head. The polling may be skewed, but I don't think it's wrong on this one: 80% of the people who voted were dissatisfied with both candidates. That left 1 in 5 who actually smiled and felt pride in the vote. The rest of us felt like we had to take a shower.

[ISiddiqui]

But on the other hand they (esp Congressional Republicans) are going all in on Trump. And his big supporters didn't hate Trump - they carried him through the primaries. They are the ones who are going to be instrumental in making policy, not the nose holders. But the nose holders have shown they'll go along with it.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by TroyF

I think Jon (and I believe he will readily admit this) is on the far right hand side of what the party is and what most of the republican voters are.

I'll agree with that well enough ... but I also draw a different conclusion from it.

I'm less enthusiastic about Trump than probably 1/3rd or more of those who voted for him. I think it's fun & all, just to feel like "so you mean there's a chance" again, but have limited hopes for the outcome.

A lot of those I know who voted for him truly bought into the whole "Make America Great Again" thing (I don't believe that's a realistic goal),

I've probably heard directly from around 250 or so Trump voters over the past weeks through election day. They may have had to convince themselves along the journey but by Tuesday over half were sold. (Not a lot over half probably, but still).

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Dutch

It will naturally be called "Don't call it a comeback! I was here all along"

I need a facepalm.gif for SIGNIFICANTLY whitening these lyrics.

"Hello, old chap! Don't call it a comeback, I was here all along!"

[Ben E Lou]

Meanwhile, Obama and Trump are having the first transition meeting right now. It was thought to be 15-20 minutes. They've been in there for roughly 80 minutes as of this posting.