How do player ratings work on this game?

[shanklingill]

Hey all,

I am relatively new to this game, and I am struggling to get my head around how the player ratings in this game work, which is somewhat taking the enjoyment out of it for me because the system the game employs seemingly makes it almost impossible to ever truly know the worth of some players. I have the combine scouting accuracy at its highest level, and x-factor off, and still I find that almost exclusively players I draft see their potential rating significantly decline post draft. This is over three different careers I have started and multiple drafts through the years in each, and with only probably one or two exceptions where a player retains their scouted potential (and no real example of where an average or bad player ends up being a diamond in the rough).

As an example, in my most most recent season I needed a franchise QB, and traded up to draft first overall at a big cost, because some rookie in the draft class blew his ratings out the park on virtually everything. I drafted him, he his potential rating was listed as 85 post draft, but by training camp it dropped to 58, and by the pre-season had dropped to barely 50.

In fact, this happens pretty much with every single first rounder I ever pick. Potential is huge, by the 2nd season it drops to average/barely good (weirdly, the only exceptions are always linebackers). And when you look at the scout history, its always the same scout rating them, so how can it realistically be so different, especially when Ive picked settings that by the games definition should guarantee combine ratings?

I actually put this to the test. I reloaded pre-draft, and simulated to the end of the second pre-season three times. Each time roughly the same thing happened. I then simulated a further three times without trading up to the first pick, and each time the Eagles picked the guy.... when I drafted him, he averaged 53. When they drafted him, he averaged 83.

Does this game punish teams with better rosters? Is it coded into the game that overall team scores have a maximum, or that it limits better players to a maximum in a team? Or is the AI getting an inbuilt advantage?

Or is there are part to scouting that I havent considered? Apart from coaches (which I pick based only on high scouting to combat this annoying tendency), is there anything else I can actively do to stop such random dips in player performances?

Any tips? Any mods or setting you can use to fix the subjectivity of player ratings and have the game display actual, non contested, ratings?

[Ben E Lou]

Here’s a good read for how this mechanism works. It’s a feature of the game.
Unmasking 101 - Front Office Football Central

[Squirrel]

Hey, welcome

It's a feature as Ben says, not a bug. It's trying to simulate scouting variance as we see in the real world. And also it's trying to simulate scouting over-optimism. So on NFL draft night the scouts say everyone looks great and every team says it's happy with its haul, but of course afterward only some of the players pan out.

[shanklingill]

Thanks for taking the time to reply, guys! The link was helpful, but went over my head a little bit with some of it. So I had a few questions;

1. Is a players current ability rating and individual stats truly accurate, or is it also a subjective (and possibly wrong) assessment from the scout in question? My guess is no.

2. Just so I understood right, you tend to find if a players rating instantly goes lower at TC stage, then he will "creep" downwards over time? And the opposite is true if a player goes up.

3. How much can things like weight gain/loss for a position effect ratings? If a player is underweight for his position, can that dramatically effect his scout report?

4. At what stage is it normal for a player to be at full development? And also, from what I understood from the link, if a player is developed 100% but there is a difference in his current and potential ratings, its fair to say his future potential will slide eventually to meet his current rating?

5. At what age do people start to decline, and at what stage do people really decline heavily? On one of the seasons I started, Antonio Brown declined to an overall rating of 35, and he was still 28-29 years of age!! Is that normal (wonderful when the guy was on 20 mill a year on a long deal).

I guess the explanation helps, because at least I know to some extent its the game correcting the scout report, and not a constantly fluctuating rating that never sets... if it eventually finds parity, like it appear, it makes it far more manageable to deal with.

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by shanklingill

Hey all,

I am relatively new to this game, and I am struggling to get my head around how the player ratings in this game work, which is somewhat taking the enjoyment out of it for me because the system the game employs seemingly makes it almost impossible to ever truly know the worth of some players.

That is the nature of the NFL draft.

I have the combine scouting accuracy at its highest level,

Do you mean at 100?

It sounds like you don't really know what the rating is for. If it is set to "100", that means that the combine drill numbers will closely reflect the players' actual (currently hidden) ratings. For example, a 4.25 40 WR should almost certainly have high "big play receiving", even if the scouted attributes don't currently show it.

Setting this to the "highest level" means that you have to draft based mostly on combine scores, and pretty much ignore what their scouted ratings are.

If, on the other hand, you want to draft based exclusively on scouted attributes, you would want to set "combine accuracy" to 0. Then, post-preseason ratings should match much more closely to what you see in the draft. (Note: I've never played this way, so I'm only guessing I've always played at 50, which in FOF7 meant paying slightly more attention to combines, but in FOF8 seems to mean paying slightly more attention to bars)

It sounds like you want to play with the setting at 0.

1. Is a players current ability rating and individual stats truly accurate, or is it also a subjective (and possibly wrong) assessment from the scout in question? My guess is no.

Scouts will see players slightly differently. Between friends and I we have never noticed more than a 20 point difference, and that is quite rare. Seems to vary moreso with younger players.

2. Just so I understood right, you tend to find if a players rating instantly goes lower at TC stage, then he will "creep" downwards over time? And the opposite is true if a player goes up.

The thread Ben E Lou pointed you to is from 2007. While this is generally true, there is more variance in FOF8 (a player will sometimes go down, and then go up later). How much more variance I am not sure.

3. How much can things like weight gain/loss for a position effect ratings? If a player is underweight for his position, can that dramatically effect his scout report?

It seems to me like weight is more of a modifier to a player's performance. For example, if that 5-7 CB has 90 man to man, he might play like he only has 60 man to man. That 95 run defense DT at 285 pounds will maybe play like he has 75 run defense. Those numbers are just made up for example.

Note that you can only ask a player to bulk up / trim down once in their career, and I've seen players move over 20 pounds, so be careful.

A 5-10 QB can still throw for 4000 yards and 35 TDs, and a 5-10 WR can still have over 1700 yards receiving. But they would perform better if they were taller.

4. At what stage is it normal for a player to be at full development? And also, from what I understood from the link, if a player is developed 100% but there is a difference in his current and potential ratings, its fair to say his future potential will slide eventually to meet his current rating?

Most non-QBs can be fully developed during their second season if they have been getting playing time. If they don't get playing time, they will develop much more slowly, or potentially not at all. QBs maybe an extra season if they are playing.

5. At what age do people start to decline, and at what stage do people really decline heavily? On one of the seasons I started, Antonio Brown declined to an overall rating of 35, and he was still 28-29 years of age!! Is that normal (wonderful when the guy was on 20 mill a year on a long deal).

28-29 is a bit young. Ultimately, you are at the mercy of the dice rolls. My friend's team had a star QB and a star WR both retire at that same age within a decade. Sometimes it just happens, and you can roleplay reasons for it.

Most players start to drop slightly around their 7th or 8th year or so, but remain playable for years. Sometimes they drop quickly, usually it is more gradual. RBs drop sooner, QBs hit their primes and stay good longer (maybe dropping 12th or 13th year, maybe not). Sometimes you have someone at all-pro level one season and you have to cut them within 2 years.

It all depends on the dice rolls.

[bdubbs]

Originally Posted by shanklingill

Thanks for taking the time to reply, guys! The link was helpful, but went over my head a little bit with some of it. So I had a few questions;

1. Is a players current ability rating and individual stats truly accurate, or is it also a subjective (and possibly wrong) assessment from the scout in question? My guess is no.

2. Just so I understood right, you tend to find if a players rating instantly goes lower at TC stage, then he will "creep" downwards over time? And the opposite is true if a player goes up.

3. How much can things like weight gain/loss for a position effect ratings? If a player is underweight for his position, can that dramatically effect his scout report?

4. At what stage is it normal for a player to be at full development? And also, from what I understood from the link, if a player is developed 100% but there is a difference in his current and potential ratings, its fair to say his future potential will slide eventually to meet his current rating?

5. At what age do people start to decline, and at what stage do people really decline heavily? On one of the seasons I started, Antonio Brown declined to an overall rating of 35, and he was still 28-29 years of age!! Is that normal (wonderful when the guy was on 20 mill a year on a long deal).

I guess the explanation helps, because at least I know to some extent its the game correcting the scout report, and not a constantly fluctuating rating that never sets... if it eventually finds parity, like it appear, it makes it far more manageable to deal with.

I'm gonna try not to repeat FOF midget here

1) The answer is just no. All players are subject to changes in current/future ratings during training camp and preseason week 2. This is most common in young players, or older guys who are regressing. I've seen 30 year old players get a bump in these stages, but it's usually small.

2) If you have a rookie that makes a big move up or down though, say his future potential drops 30 points from the time you draft him to pwk2, it's very unlikely he will ever come close to his initial ratings. It's not like guys drop 20 points one year, and gain 20 points the next. Sometimes they don't bust right away either, I've seen a guy look great for the entire length of his rookie contract and then bust the year after I sign him to a big extension. So a guy might lose a couple points one year, stagnate for a few seasons, gain a couple points later. In my experience young players only make one big ratings move if they're going to make a big move at all though.

3) My personal opinion is that height and weight don't matter that much in this game. I've seen 299lb RT's have All pro seasons and 260lb 34 DL have DPOY caliber seasons. Nobody is 100% sure how much height and weight matters, but I've seen enough guys succeed in positions where they didn't match the scheme enough that I'm not going to pass up on a 75/75 RB or CB just because he's 5'7. I guess what I'm saying is if I have the option I'd prefer to draft a guy with appropriate size, but I'm rarely going to let it be the deciding factor in a draft pick or FA.

4) It depends on a lot of things, mainly how much they're playing and how high their development % was when you drafted them. A guy who is 1% developed might start from day 1 and still not hit potential until the end of his rookie contract. I'd ball park it between 2-4 seasons based on those 2 factors.

5) I feel like RB's get hit by age a little younger than other players, but usually you see some decline between 29-32 and a steady decline after that.

The thread Ben linked you to is definitely useful in FOF8 but a little dated in the sense that combines don't seem to be as strongly linked to bars, but that correlation is also dependent on your scouting accuracy as was mentioned.

I'd recommend you learn about static bars, and how specific combines are supposed to be a reflection of certain bars. The short version is static means those bars usually don't change much during the reveal stages. The logic is that good static bars are a good sign because you know they're legit, and one big bar means there could be more big bars. Using the above example of BPR we know that the 40 yard dash time correlates to BPR meaning a big BPR implies that player should have a fast 40 yard dash.

You can use that info a few different ways. If his speed seems to match his BPR skill well maybe his other bars also correlate to their respective combines and you can judge him that way. Or maybe he's got an average dash and a big BPR. Knowing his BPR is going to fall somewhere in the range you're currently scouting and that his 40 is underrated gives you reason to think you might have stumbled on a player who may see a ratings bump at the reveal stages.

Not to mention some bars are just more important than others. a 46/46 RB with high hole rec and good endurance would be a hot trade commodity in MP leagues.

Some guys (looking at you Squirrel) have managed to better understand the math behind drafting, and build their own tools to help them evaluate draft classes. To this point though nobody has come up with a fool proof way to draft, if they have they've done a damn good job keeping it a secret.

I'd also recommend as a new player you recognize that ratings don't always equal stats. The 70/70 guy doesn't always have a studly career, and sometimes you're better off starting your 35/35 guy than your 50/50 guy, you just don't know it until after the switch. If I have a veteran player take a ratings drop I stick with them until they start hurting me on the field. If I have a player who is hurting me on the field, like a 56/56 CB who is in the top 3 catches allowed after 3 games I'm going to shuffle where my CBs are lining up, if it continues the player hits the bench and I try someone else, no matter how big the ratings difference is. You'd be surprised how often that lower rated player can at least outperform the awful performance of the other guy. .

Cohesion is a thing too, and some players believe in it very strongly. The more years a player is on your roster the more cohesion points they add to their position group. High cohesion is supposed to give a boost to the unit as a whole, but the strength of cohesion (and chemistry) are debatable. High cohesion and lots of affinities combined can have a more noticeable impact I think, but it can be hard to do for a lot of different reasons.

You should also search the forum and check out the Draft Analyzer and Player Tracker tools. The DA is useful and a good learning tool, and the player tracker will make it easier to keep track of player ratings changes over time.

[shanklingill]

Thanks for taking the time to post a response to the questions.

I'd also recommend as a new player you recognize that ratings don't always equal stats. The 70/70 guy doesn't always have a studly career, and sometimes you're better off starting your 35/35 guy than your 50/50 guy, you just don't know it until after the switch. If I have a veteran player take a ratings drop I stick with them until they start hurting me on the field. If I have a player who is hurting me on the field, like a 56/56 CB who is in the top 3 catches allowed after 3 games I'm going to shuffle where my CBs are lining up, if it continues the player hits the bench and I try someone else, no matter how big the ratings difference is. You'd be surprised how often that lower rated player can at least outperform the awful performance of the other guy. .

Yeah, I think I need to maybe look into the key stats a bit deeper, and what they tend to produce as result. I have noticed on my career I played, as the Browns, that Hogan was rated mostly terribly in everything, yet kept on producing. Being new to the game I just thought it might be the game being too easy and dismissed it, but then I have struggled in other careers to find even highly rated QBs that I can get good production out of. Jimmy G for instance is rated highly, but I couldnt get him much over 3000 yard seasons, and after 4 seasons, his QB rating was terrible (could be my game plan to blame though).

5) I feel like RB's get hit by age a little younger than other players, but usually you see some decline between 29-32 and a steady decline after that

Yeah, I have just signed a RB after his 4 year rookie deal, he's 27 I think, and came back after the free agency with a 9 point rating hit!

2) If you have a rookie that makes a big move up or down though, say his future potential drops 30 points from the time you draft him to pwk2, it's very unlikely he will ever come close to his initial ratings. It's not like guys drop 20 points one year, and gain 20 points the next. Sometimes they don't bust right away either, I've seen a guy look great for the entire length of his rookie contract and then bust the year after I sign him to a big extension. So a guy might lose a couple points one year, stagnate for a few seasons, gain a couple points later. In my experience young players only make one big ratings move if they're going to make a big move at all though.

Do you tend to find it happens more by certain positions? I find QBs tend to fluctuate in potential (and experience slower growth to their current potential), running backs/defensive lineman/defensive backs never seem to bust or creep much, and linebackers for me have never really changed at all. But the offensive lineman, christ. It seems every single one I draft or sign experience a dramatic bust.

Ill have a flick through the site and check the tools you mention.

Do you mean at 100?

Yes, I did. But then it seems that, as you point out, my understanding is maybe a little off on what the function does, so I will put it back to 50.

Thanks guys

[bdubbs]

Great QB's by themselves definitely aren't enough, you need to give them weapons and an OL that can protect them. For the most part you're not going to have a great QB on your team unless you happen to draft 1.1 or 1.2 in a year there's an obvious star QB (who still bust sometimes). But you don't need a 60+ QB to compete, WR's are almost as important.


Players at all positions can boom or bust as rookies, and the likelihood of it happening is based on their volatility, which you can see in the player card. Volatility is a probability thing, so anything can happen with an individual player, but over a larger population guys with high volatility should have bigger ratings swings than lower volatility guys.

Sometimes you're going to find you just have bad luck. In my last draft in my MP league I had two 2nd round picks that didn't make the final roster, my first round pick ended up something like 33/47 after the reveals, and multiple later round picks that had to be replaced with UDFA's. When I first took over though I had a good couple years of drafting, especially at WR and was able to attract some good trade offers. There's always a luck factor in this game that you have to accept