Werewolf II - Flight to Hawthorne Manor

[ntndeacon]

If everyone was worth the same I might agree with you Eaglesfan. However some folks are weighted more than others. Eating the seer is mmuch better than eating Airhog. Of course eating the Cultist would be worse for the wolves than eating Airhog. Plus since basic math says pick Airhog, wouldn't the wolves have to be leary of the bodyguard for just that reason. I am not convinced that we will be lucky tonight.

[NoMyths]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

There haven't been any werewolf attacks yet, right?

It would be funny if Peregrine is just messing with us and didn't put any werewolves into this game.

Yeah, either there haven't been any attacks or our bodyguard is doing a damned fine job. If it's option A, that emphasizes the fact that we need to look at folks who have been quiet...seems like they just haven't been around enough to eat anyone. At this point, we've been more dangerous than the wolves have been.

[NoMyths]

dola...

Can't sleep because this effing game has got strategerie thoughts running through my head.

First off: After some reflection, I think Airhog's strategy was very well played. While his efforts to draw comments out of possible wolves seems to have been ineffective, he still took a free shot at a possible wolf and has set himself up as basically an immune vote--there's no chance he'll be lynched now, as he isn't a wolf, and there's little chance he'll be eaten, as the wolves will want to dine on a role that's more helpful (such as the doctor, seer, or bodyguard). Basically we now have a free vote against the wolves...smartly played, Airhog. Just too bad it didn't pay off in forcing a reveal.

The second thing I've been considering is the role of the seer. While this diminishes my potential somewhat, I'm going to try to help us out a bit: I'm not the seer. Because of this, I've been trying to figure out who might be, so I can look to them for clues...after all, if the seer has hit upon a wolf, he'd be trying to direct us to it subtly, right? Now in considering these things, I want to make sure I don't jeopardize our seer's identity, and so I'm not pointing out who accused who of what. But by reading back over things, a little bit of data revealed itself.

To this end I went back through the thread to see if there were any outstanding votes that jumped out at me. Offhand a couple of things did. A handful of us have been tossing out feelers to try and roust any wolfy comments...myself, BrianD, Condors, and Airhog have been the leaders in that particular group. And a handful of folks haven't said much of anything, and have voted at the last minute -- suspicious to a degree, but certainly forgivable considering the correlation between being vocal and getting lynching attention; these would include folks like ntndeacon, McSweeny, Jon, and Swaggs.

The only outstanding votes and/or suspicions I've seen cast at this point have been the following: a handful of accusations towards Neuqua, Desnudo, and Condors. I'm assuming that after the first night the seer would have viewed me to verify that I wasn't a wolf, considering how the vote went down. With the Airhog strategy the bandwagon gathered steam early, and so the seer might not have been able to point us in the right direction right away...likewise, he wouldn't have burned a view on Airhog, considering that he was a lock to be lynched.

So I guess all of this thinking comes down to this: it's certainly possible that our seer hasn't hit upon a wolf yet, and so we'll have to keep our antenna up for the subtle broadcast. But if he has, we might need to take a closer look at some of the outlying folks...or at the very least hear a little bit more from them.

Lord knows if any of this rambling is useful in helping us to divine who the furries are, but since I've got insomnia, I figured it'd be better to ramble here than in my head.

[Peregrine]

Can't sleep because this effing game has got strategerie thoughts running through my head

I suggest watching The Thing to calm your nerves.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0084787/

[NoMyths]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

I suggest watching The Thing to calm your nerves.

Heh...mostly I'm just chalking it up to the fact that I was in the emergency room until 5:30 am last night with my girlfriend (she seems to be ok, but was a tense evening) and slept into the afternoon...system hasn't adjusted to the time. Glad I'm on a teaching schedule right now rather than an 8-5 job, though.

[Peregrine]

Well I'm usually alone on the boards this time of night since I work midnight-8 am. So insomnia is fine with me.

[NoMyths]

Well, at least we're keeping graveyard shift watch over the Carolinas, eh?

Edit: Oh, and since the video store is closed: here's a link to the script for The Thing, in case anyone wants to be unnerved.

[Peregrine]

Yeah The Thing is a real classic, it's pretty much the best portrayal of the effects of paranoia on a small, isolated group that I've ever seen.

Charleston is a nice place to be, except in the summer. My brother went to C of C.

[Mustang]

huh.. interesting. Would have expected the next nights moves to have been posted by the time I logged on this morning. Unfortunately, not a whole lotta information that we can glean from this other than someone is slow in getting their nightly moves in.. Have to put it in the mental banks for later in the game. If play suddenly speeds up after a lynching or eating then we could use that information against the wolves. Of course, guess the opposite is true...

Not sure about anyone else but, I'm waiting for this night turn to end so I can make some comments related to Airhog...

[Peregrine]

I'm hesitant to skip the last people I haven't heard from, but I don't want to burn the whole day waiting for them. I'll give them another 45 minutes or so and then post the results.

[KevinNU7]

We need to set PM deadlines, this is getting silly

[Peregrine]

I agree, PM deadlines should be in place. I'll think about what they should be. Probably midnight or something, and if there's a problem, send your action to me earlier, make it conditional if you think you really can't be around.

[condors]

taps foot

[Peregrine]

The night passes slowly, many of you are haunted by strange dreams and spend the night tossing and turning. In the morning, cold sunlight fills the halls of the old manor. You are hungry, and there is not enough food, though there is plenty of wine. The Duke in particular seems to have started his battle with the bottle quite early. He is quite alive, for all his predictions. You count heads and realize that tonight, someone is indeed missing. You travel room to room largely as a group, afraid of what you might find. In one small room, more of a closet than a bedroom, you find the remains of McSweeny, slashed to ribbons. Even worse is you see that his room is filled with scribbled notes and journals, apparently he has been travelling the halls at night, watching. It's painfully obvious that he was the Witness!

Day Turn 3

Jon
Swaggs
TazFTW - Lynched on Day 2 (villager)
Airhog - Duke
NoMyths
Qwikshot
Neuqua
ntndeacon
McSweeny - killed on Night 3 (Witness)
Shorty - Lynched on Day 1 (villager)
Kwhit
Mustang
BrianD
Condors
Eaglesfan
GWB
KevinNU7
Desnudo
Lathum

Cast your votes by 8 PM EST

[BrianD]

That is a shame, we could have used his talents later. Looks like Airhog's plan worked for him. He isn't worth eating yet.

[jeff061]

You guys give Airhog too much credit .

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

You guys give Airhog too much credit .

Or not enough. He is still alive and drinking, err, I mean kicking.

[jeff061]

Heh yeah, but I doubt he had this whole thing planned out. He was just having some fun and is probably happy with what he stumbled in to .

[Mustang]

Hmm.. anything McSweeny said that could have lead to his being uncovered as a witness or was it just a completely lucky pick for the wolves?

I'd agree, Airhog seemed like the choice to make given that he is really an advantage to us right now as no one will vote for him but, he still has a vote. Was hoping the wolves would come to that conclusion and maybe the witness could get one in the action.. In hindsight, seems the last few nights have had a few targets that were high likely bodyguard/witness types to be viewed. Maybe Neuqua was protected and that pushed the wolves to do something completely random??

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by NoMyths

The second thing I've been considering is the role of the seer. While this diminishes my potential somewhat

Odd statement, reduces your potential for??

I'd agree, there is a good chance the seer probably viewed you given the voting the first night. Unfortunately, given the way that the voting went with Airhog the person that was the seer didn't have much of an opportunity to jump ship without drawing attention to themselves.. I know Qwik voted for Neuqua.. trying to tell us something?? Wolves wouldn't have killed off someone that voted different than Airhog would have been way too easy to detect.. especially if Neuqua was a werewolf.. he knows he would be suspect #1...

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Hmm.. anything McSweeny said that could have lead to his being uncovered as a witness or was it just a completely lucky pick for the wolves?

I'd agree, Airhog seemed like the choice to make given that he is really an advantage to us right now as no one will vote for him but, he still has a vote. Was hoping the wolves would come to that conclusion and maybe the witness could get one in the action.. In hindsight, seems the last few nights have had a few targets that were high likely bodyguard/witness types to be viewed. Maybe Neuqua was protected and that pushed the wolves to do something completely random??

I'm guessing McSweeny was a random kill, and it is a pretty good one. There is nothing that points to him, and nobody had a beef with him. Our job didn't get any easier with this one.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Mustang

Odd statement, reduces your potential for??

I'd agree, there is a good chance the seer probably viewed you given the voting the first night. Unfortunately, given the way that the voting went with Airhog the person that was the seer didn't have much of an opportunity to jump ship without drawing attention to themselves.. I know Qwik voted for Neuqua.. trying to tell us something?? Wolves wouldn't have killed off someone that voted different than Airhog would have been way too easy to detect.. especially if Neuqua was a werewolf.. he knows he would be suspect #1...

I thought the wolves might go after Qwik because he voted for somebody other than Airhog. It would seem to be a good way to throw suspicion on Neuqua like suspicion was thrown on me last time. I wonder if Neuqua is a wolf and that is why they didn't eat Qwik?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I'm guessing McSweeny was a random kill, and it is a pretty good one. There is nothing that points to him, and nobody had a beef with him. Our job didn't get any easier with this one.

I agree. I think the thought process was this:

There is pressure on one of the werewolves, maybe they decided to do a random killing as opposed to killing someone who is heading in the right direction. It would definantly cause more confusion and not really give anything away. I'm not ready to accuse anyone just yet though.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by BrianD

It would seem to be a good way to throw suspicion on Neuqua like suspicion was thrown on me last time. I wonder if Neuqua is a wolf and that is why they didn't eat Qwik?

Possibility.. would account for why Qwik wasn't eaten. Anyone paying attention to the last game would have seen the ramifications of doing that again right away..

[condors]

how do you get the thread stats?

like who posted how much

I am leaning towards those who have said nothing as prime wolf canidates

try and stay below the radar type thing

[Qwikshot]

I was just voting elsewhere because I correctly assumed Airhog to be the duke, and I didn't want to be picked by him as a retaliation hanging...Airhog basically did a shot in the dark and failed, I'm leaning that he really had no idea, it could have been anyone of us.

I don't think Neuqua is a wolf, I've stated that, I picked him because it was the least likely to cause any conflict (as opposed to say, picking someone else whom I had assumptions on).

So the witness is dead before he could witness anything, sucks for the villagers.

But if you guys are that paranoid, you can follow my lead from last vote, and vote Neuqua.

[Lathum]

So the witness is dead before he could witness anything, sucks for the villagers.

slip of the tounge?

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by condors

how do you get the thread stats?

like who posted how much

I am leaning towards those who have said nothing as prime wolf canidates

try and stay below the radar type thing

You get them by clicking on the number listed under the "Replies" column in the main forum.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Lathum

slip of the tounge?

It is tongue.

And no, I was thinking in relation to werewolves vs villagers.

[Eaglesfan27]

It's a shame that the Wolves got the witness before he could tell us anything useful. In scrolling through our notes (this thread), I don't see any useful information from him. Anyone see anything that we are missing in his notes?

[Peregrine]

The Witness is a one-shot role in terms of witnessing an attack, I just assumed that he would be skulking around the halls the rest of the time. No new information there unfortunately

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Eaglesfan27

It's a shame that the Wolves got the witness before he could tell us anything useful. In scrolling through our notes (this thread), I don't see any useful information from him. Anyone see anything that we are missing in his notes?

I think McSweeny was out much this weekend...which could account for his lack of input. Do witnesses get to see after a successful werewolf attack, or any attack?

[Eaglesfan27]

Hmmm, that is suspicious. I and most of my fellow villagers talk about us villagers. However, Quikshot talks about the villagers.. That is suspicious.

[Qwikshot]

I was thinking aloud, I believe in my past statements, I used "us". Take it for what you will, I'm not a wolf.

[KevinNU7]

McSweeny only has 5 posts

[Qwikshot]

Oh it's Qwikshot...I think Quikshot, does an injustice to Quiksand, as I am nowhere near as brilliant as he.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Oh it's Qwikshot...I think Quikshot, does an injustice to Quiksand, as I am nowhere near as brilliant as he.

spelling police

[Qwikshot]

Better to be the spelling police, than the grammar police who I think have a harder job, though both are far better than the fashion police.

Let me repeat

I am not a werewolf.

I knew Airhog was the duke because his hints were hardly subtle.

I know Neuqua is not a werewolf, well, maybe I don't know this for a fact, but I think so, but I could be wrong.

I'm more inclined to think that our furry friends (if there is more than one) are in the quiet.

[Swaggs]

I would also like to proudly proclaim:

I am not a werewolf

(don't be the last)

[Eaglesfan27]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I would also like to proudly proclaim:

I am not a werewolf

(don't be the last)

ROFL

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Better to be the spelling police, than the grammar police who I think have a harder job, though both are far better than the fashion police.

All of which pale incomparison to being the dream police. Now there's a tough job.

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I'm more inclined to think that our furry friends (if there is more than one) are in the quiet.

I'd assume based on the ratios of the last game that there are 3 or 4 starting plus an unknown # of cursed. Worst case scenario, if the first 2 nights were cursed victims, we are looking at 5 or 6 wolves currently???

[condors]

I am not a werewolf

but saying your not really doesn't mean anything imho

[Mustang]

Originally Posted by Fonzie

All of which pale incomparison to being the dream police. Now there's a tough job.

[Qwikshot]

Airhog - 16 (TazFTW, KevinNU7, Eaglesfan27, NoMyths, Lathum, George W Bush, BrianD,Jon, KWhit, condors, Mustang, ntndeacon, Desnudo, McSweeny, Neuqua, Swaggs)

TazFTW - 1 (Airhog)

Neuqua - 1 (Qwikshot)

Okay, let's look at this...it's painfully obvious, the furry ones joined the Airhog bandwagon, Airhog made it easy for them, what I find more distressing is that majority of us, villagers also went that way. Everyone is afraid of going against the grain because it implies questioning their motives, my motives are clear and precise.

Taz died as a result of Airhog's deduction (I have yet to forumulate on what grounds Airhog had for this accusation)(edit-motive deduced below, Taz was first to accuse Airhog).

Everyone is saying my voting against the group is dangerous, but if anything, I am proving that I'm not a wolf, the wolf was voting with the majority because it was the easiest way not to gain suspicion, this was our greatest failure as villagers.

While we were all joining in voting Airhog's death, who was the most vocal in doing so?


Taz started the run, and I think that is why Airhog picked him...

Next up was KevinNU7, faulting Airhog's strategy, and then voting for him to be lynched.

Then surprisingly for one who I felt was serious about deduction, Eaglesfan27 joined in. I thought someone like him wouldn't be so apt to go with the flow, unless maybe it was to hide something. He did this a mere 7 minutes after following KevinNU7's lead.
So quick to hang someone.

6 minutes later, NoMyths chimed in, with a rather "go with the majority" rejoinder, he later wrote a long monologue analyzing the choices, but I think that may have simply been a ruse to cover such a quick decision to hang Airhog.

2 minutes later, Lathum picks Airhog, the dominos are falling, everyone is picking Airhog. I concur with his statement, mob mentality is kicking in.

5 minutes later, GWB decides to join in the mob, going with the reasoning that the rantings of a mad duke is enough to do him in.

Rather fast and furious, BrianD finishes up the assualt in the assault on Airhog a few minutes later (I would have to hit the link and thus lose what I wrote).

I think your furry friends are part of this group...I'd bet on it. I'd be very careful with any of them.

[condors]

good stuff Qwikshot

[McSweeny]

well it's a shame i got eaten so early, i was planning on witnessing the next kill so we'd at least have a line on one of the wolves. And yes my lack of participation was due to the fact that i was not around for most of the weekend

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by condors

good stuff Qwikshot

Are you saying that because you are part of that group

Seriously, one or two of those six is a wolf.

Not saying that a wolf could have joined in afterwards, but they were just so fast and furious to do Airhog in and then even afterward when we knew there was a possibility that he was duke, nobody changed their vote. I find that perplexing.

The truth is there, just look at the vote times. You got a wolf in there.

[Fonzie]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

well it's a shame i got eaten so early, i was planning on witnessing the next kill so we'd at least have a line on one of the wolves. And yes my lack of participation was due to the fact that i was not around for most of the weekend

Absence makes the heart grow...deader?

[Swaggs]

I think Qwik's reasoning is pretty sound.

That said, part of the reason that everyone piled on Airhog was because some of us believed he may have wanted out of the game. At the time, I hadn't even considered the possibility of him being the Duke, as I wasn't sure the Duke could save himself.