The Trump Presidency – 2016

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Your Guide to Tonight’s Trumpian Word Vomit - The Bulwark

Rick Wilson grants no quarter

And that's by a Republican strategist

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by miked

And they can just collect interest nearly tax-free or invest it with a lower tax rate than working. But I guess most should just learn to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.

Inheritance is the biggest form of welfare in this country.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

2) - Sure, but that has nothing do with the Wall. On 1), what can he do about what the Wall instead of playing golf? I mean, it's not as if Congress is offering to fund the wall if he'll just stay off the links more.

He should be working to find ways to save you all from the bad, bad foreigners instead of saying "Nah, wall or nothing. No wall ? Guess i'll have the day off".

Either it's an emergency or it isn't. And if you say it is, you better treat it as one even if it means compromising a little or, you know, bring yourself to order some underling to educate you about alternative courses of action.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Let's put this in a way-a real national emergency existed. Let's say that massive earthquake they have been predicting for the mid-west finally happens. Massive amount of death and destruction. Do you want your President to be playing golf with Jack and Tiger or working with Congress and federal agencies to help people as quickly and efficiently as possible?

Again, what specifically can he do right now on the Wall though? He's communicated with Congress on what he thinks is needed. He's issued orders to the relevant federal agencies. I'm with you on the 'working night and day' stuff if there's actual stuff that can be done. But unless there's something practical on the Wall that he can do which he isn't doing, choosing instead to go play golf, then this is just another example of not being content with the umpteen bazillion actual things Trump is doing wrong, and inventing new ones that are spurious. In your example, after the president has done everything he can do vis a vis congress and federal agencies, I couldn't care less what he does with his time.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Again, what specifically can he do right now on the Wall though? He's communicated with Congress on what he thinks is needed. He's issued orders to the relevant federal agencies. I'm with you on the 'working night and day' stuff if there's actual stuff that can be done. But unless there's something practical on the Wall that he can do which he isn't doing, choosing instead to go play golf, then this is just another example of not being content with the umpteen bazillion actual things Trump is doing wrong, and inventing new ones that are spurious. In your example, after the president has done everything he can do vis a vis congress and federal agencies, I couldn't care less what he does with his time.

My point here was that if he goes national emergency on the Wall, he's now equating this with a real national emergency like I described. Where thousands of people are in imment danger of losing their life/property. No doubt there's some danger involved with the border, but mostly this is a crisis HE made up to be much more worse than it actually is. If he thinks the border is that much of a threat to America, he should be working non-stop to fix it with Congress, not taking a vacation in Florida to play golf.



If this was government working normally, I wouldn't be having a problem with him priortizing the Wall over most anything else, and then going to play golf after he worked to achieve it/try to achieve it. But him threatening a national emergency over something he largely created and then go and play golf is not govt working correctly

[Radii]

I'm with Brian on this. At a different level and from a different direction. But honestly, I've got so much of my anger wrapped up in the countless criminal enterprises our president, his campaign, his cabinet, his charity, and his inauguration committee seem to have committed that I just feel like comments about his golf game are a waste of time and a distraction.

[Radii]

dola, Trump declaring a national emergency over the wall is such a massive farce, that taking little extra digs about him playing golf, again, almost distract from how serious and significant and negligent his positions are.

[albionmoonlight]

I just passed a woman on the street dressed like Alexandria Ocasico-Cortez. I am pretty politically aware, but it would never occur to me to cosplay a state of the Union address. :-)

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

If he thinks the border is that much of a threat to America, he should be working non-stop to fix it with Congress, not taking a vacation in Florida to play golf.

My question is still the same one: doing what, specifically? What can he communicate/engage with Congress on vis a vis this that hasn't already done? What information/discussion does Congress need from him that didn't happen during the run-up to the 'shutdown', the shutdown itself, and the period which has followed it? We agree that the Wall isn't a good idea, but that's beside the point here. And they don't even want him involved right now:

Originally Posted by Roy Blunt

The goal of this conference should be to do our best to get a bill that we think is something the president will sign when he looks at everything in it, but not to let him become one of the negotiators,

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Wouldn't the withholdings decrease in proportion to the new brackets? Just doing some incredibly rough math here, and it would seem noticeable if I'm working it out correctly. It sure looks like pretty much everyone in the lower-middle/middle/upper-middle brackets is going to see 3-4% more, and if you happen to fall in one of what appear to be some sweet spots here, significantly more than that. (A married couple whose income remains static in the 76-77K range from 2017 to 2018 drops from 25% to 12%????? Am I reading that correctly?)

I was reading this correctly, it seems. We weren’t in a sweet spot, but our rate dropped 6 points despite making a hair more. Our taxable income increased by $5600, but total taxes paid decreased by $9,300 after the credits were applied. I’d think we’re a fairly typical college-educated dual-income family of four in our age range.

On another note, I filed as early as I could this time because it was clear that we were getting a refund. E-filed a week ago today. Federal refund came to my bank account today. Is it normally that fast?

[rjolley]

Last year, ours came pretty quickly, within a week, I think.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Your Guide to Tonight’s Trumpian Word Vomit - The Bulwark

Rick Wilson grants no quarter

You just don't understand his genius.

When I say something that you might think is a gaffe, it’s on purpose; it’s not a gaffe. When Biden says something dumb, it’s because he’s dumb".

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So I know I will be in the minority ...

Unless Northam has shown a pattern of racism, I would let this go. Does it excuse it? No, but those were different times, there was less sensitivity to these issues by whites then etc.

Now if it comes up Northam has done similar things or have been heard to say racist stuff over the past 30+ years, that's a different matter.

[PilotMan]

My God he's a terrible speaker on teleprompter.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I was reading this correctly, it seems. We weren’t in a sweet spot, but our rate dropped 6 points despite making a hair more. Our taxable income increased by $5600, but total taxes paid decreased by $9,300 after the credits were applied. I’d think we’re a fairly typical college-educated dual-income family of four in our age range.

On another note, I filed as early as I could this time because it was clear that we were getting a refund. E-filed a week ago today. Federal refund came to my bank account today. Is it normally that fast?

I'd maybe qualify that also by living in a low state income and property tax state. The blue state tax is real.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by digamma

I'd maybe qualify that also by living in a low state income and property tax state. The blue state tax is real.

Because property taxes aren't deductible? (State income taxes either?) Or is there another hit that I'm missing?

[stevew]

State local and property taxes are capped at a 10000 deduction is what I assume he’s referring to?

[digamma]

Correct. In Minneapolis, the median married home owner with median income level is going to exceed that deduction. I'm guessing you see that multiplied in places like NY and SF where property values and incomes are higher.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by stevew

State local and property taxes are capped at a 10000 deduction is what I assume he’s referring to?

Ahhh...I see that now on my return. Actually, that did affect us. Our state/local was right at 10K, so we lost all deduction on real estate/personal property. The child tax credit more than made up for that, though. Referencing a discussion about this from last year, that's a pure *credit*, not a deduction, thus a $4K reduction to our tax bill right off the top, in other words. Looking over my return in more detail, here are the items that stand out...

• We lost 4.5K in deductions for state/local/property
• Our income tax on the whole was lower because of being in a lower percentage bracket in the new system.
• We gained a new $4K credit for having two children.

So basically the more kids you have the better this is, but that can be at least partially offset by higher state/local/property taxers in one's locale. I have no idea how NC compares to the rest of the country on this, but for us the child tax credit more than made up for the lost deduction amount.

[Drake]

I did my taxes last night (Indiana) with similar results to yours, Ben.

I have super-low property taxes and a relatively small mortgage, so they've never really factored into my tax formula. As pretty much a direct result, I've just taken the standard deduction for the last 10 years. So, between the increased standard deduction, the child tax credit, and the lower rate, I netted about $800 more on my return this year than last with no substantial changes. My witholding was also down about $600 from the previous year.

It looks like tax reform put about back $1500 into my pocket for 2018.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by digamma

I'm not sure. That would require people to care about the State of the Union Address.

Going to stand by this take.

[albionmoonlight]

I didn't watch the speech or any of the reactions (as is my custom). I logged in this morning to process the feedback, and it appears that the SOTU and the response and the Bernie response were all . . . normal? That's the twist I didn't see coming.

[JPhillips]

From NY Magazine:

Mick Mulvaney’s progression from debt-hysteric, government-shutting Freedom Caucus insurgent to debt-increasing budget director: a play in five short acts.

1. “The only place it would make sense to borrow money to solve a debt crisis is Washington, D.C. You wouldn’t do it, I wouldn’t do it.” —Mick Mulvaney, 2011.

2. “You can’t just like spending that your party wants and dislike spending that the other party wants.” —Mick Mulvaney, November 2016.

3. “Is Trump going to get a little deference [on deficits] because he’s in the same party? Perhaps.” —Mulvaney, also November 2016.

4. “Right now we are nearly $20 trillion in debt, but Mick is a very high-energy leader with deep convictions for how to responsibly manage our nation’s finances and save our country from drowning in red ink.” —President Trump, as quoted in the Washington Post, “Trump names Rep. Mick Mulvaney, a fiscal hawk, to head budget office,” December 2016.

5. “When asked if the deficit will be mentioned in #SOTU speech, chief of staff Mulvaney said “nobody cares,” per attendee.”

[albionmoonlight]

As of right now

Va Gov--blackface scandal

Va Lt. Gov--Sex scandal

Va Atty Gen--probable blackface scandal

I'm not sure how far down the Va. line of succession goes, but we might end up with the guy who mans the butter churn in Colonial Williamsburg as governor because he's the only public person in the state who hasn't appeared in blackface or sexually harassed a staffer.

[albionmoonlight]

Apparently the guy in line after those three is the GOP Speaker of the House. So it will be interesting to see how many Dems who were loudly calling for the Gov to resign suddenly get quiet now that that choice might hurt the party.

[bronconick]

Probably why the Governor dug in his heels. " You ****ers did it too!"

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Apparently the guy in line after those three is the GOP Speaker of the House. So it will be interesting to see how many Dems who were loudly calling for the Gov to resign suddenly get quiet now that that choice might hurt the party.

If Northam resigns, then Fairfax takes charge. He could then appoint a Lt. Gov, who would take charge if Fairfax resigned. That's their way of avoiding the speaker taking over.

However, I doubt Fairfax will resign unless there is a 2nd accusation that comes out or if it gets reported/verified by a less partisan source.

[Thomkal]

House Intelligence Committee votes to release transcripts to Mueller. They include Donald Trump Jr, Hope Hicks, Jared Kushner, Corey Lewandowski and others.



House Intel panel votes to release Russia interview transcripts to Mueller | TheHill

[stevew]

Sounds like all Fairfax did was probably ghost someone. He probably used his position at the time so it’s not like he’s a great guy.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by digamma

I'd maybe qualify that also by living in a low state income and property tax state. The blue state tax is real.

There's a reason Republicans got destroyed in the suburbs of bigger states (New York, Illinois, California). The Republican reps voted to increase taxes on their own constituents.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Ahhh...I see that now on my return. Actually, that did affect us. Our state/local was right at 10K, so we lost all deduction on real estate/personal property. The child tax credit more than made up for that, though. Referencing a discussion about this from last year, that's a pure *credit*, not a deduction, thus a $4K reduction to our tax bill right off the top, in other words. Looking over my return in more detail, here are the items that stand out...

• We lost 4.5K in deductions for state/local/property
• Our income tax on the whole was lower because of being in a lower percentage bracket in the new system.
• We gained a new $4K credit for having two children.

So basically the more kids you have the better this is, but that can be at least partially offset by higher state/local/property taxers in one's locale. I have no idea how NC compares to the rest of the country on this, but for us the child tax credit more than made up for the lost deduction amount.

I would be ok, except for losing the business mileage deduction. That ruined me.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

I would be ok, except for losing the business mileage deduction. That ruined me.

Woman from HS on FB shared her SO's experience (also from HS). Union welder, lost some $18k in deductions (including union dues). Said he has never owed before but owes $4k this year.

Haven't checked out ours yet. They are really simple (basically just W2s and mortgage/property deductions) but I'm always afraid of finding out the total.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Your Guide to Tonight’s Trumpian Word Vomit - The Bulwark

Rick Wilson grants no quarter

crawling the walls like Ann Coulter on too many diet pills

Now THAT is some imagery.

[Marc Vaughan]

From what I can ascertain my rebate will be lower, but still be a rebate ... not wholly surprised and I expect a fair few people will be 'surprised' that their tax cut is actually for them a penalty because they used to claim 'x' and can't any more ...

[JPhillips]

Looks like I'll get about half the rebate I normally get. There's a little extra income, but most of it is losing deductibles related to the house.

[Vince, Pt. II]

We were a net even on income, down about 40% on our return, but we also had less withheld throughout the year. I need to dig back in to figure out what the actual net change was.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Woman from HS on FB shared her SO's experience (also from HS). Union welder, lost some $18k in deductions (including union dues). Said he has never owed before but owes $4k this year.

Haven't checked out ours yet. They are really simple (basically just W2s and mortgage/property deductions) but I'm always afraid of finding out the total.

I drove 51,000 miles for work last year.
At ~.50 mile it adds up to a bunch.


But Im getting my re-done by a 2nd opinion. My CPA Ive used forever retired last year. New guy, maybe great but he says no mileage deduction this year, but Im reading differently online.


2nd opinion for Friday

[stevew]

85000 miles. I lost money

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

85000 miles. I lost money

You drove 85000 miles for work?

[Chief Rum]

I read an article today that said that the new tax bill last year made tax cuts for a majority of U.S. filers, but people are ending up with smaller refunds and even paying when they never did before because the bill also changed the calculations on how witholding is done on payroll checks.

Basically, taxes are lower but witholding as a percentage was even lower than that, and as a result, a lot more people are seeing a drop in their returns.

I'm getting my taxes done in a couple weeks. Kinda worried what I will find out.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You drove 85000 miles for work?

That's a ton of miles. What type of work do you do if you don't me asking?

[DeToxRox]

Haven’t posted in a while, but I still lurk. Figured I would chime in with my experience.

My accountant e-filed for my wife and I last night. We just have the standard deductions (no kids either). Our household income went up about 12k in 2018. All that said, our refund was only a few hundred less than in 2018.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I read an article today that said that the new tax bill last year made tax cuts for a majority of U.S. filers, but people are ending up with smaller refunds and even paying when they never did before because the bill also changed the calculations on how witholding is done on payroll checks.

Basically, taxes are lower but witholding as a percentage was even lower than that, and as a result, a lot more people are seeing a drop in their returns.

So much of politics, political opinion, and policy ends up being guided by the tiny share of complicated issues that people can actually absorb and understand. It's positively alarming.

This issue shapes up that way. A person with identical tax-relevant circumstances in 2017 and 2018 might end up paying lower total taxes, getting a lower year-end refund (because withholding was basically adjusted correctly), and could end up getting pissed off at... well, probably whomever he was already pissed off at, for other reasons, since that's how politics works.


Personally, I'm going to be a victim of the limits on state and local tax deductibility and personal exemptions, which I fully expect to wipe out just about any rate-reduction benefit for my (very complicated) return. And in my state, with a pretty broad income tax, we might get clipped for extra state and county income taxes by the feds' decision to push most taxpayers to standard deductions. Many families in this state surely will, even if not mine.

(Incidentally, I'm not laying a claim that my family needed or deserved a tax cut. Our country has a pretty staggering debt accumulated and still growing, and it seems to me that relatively stable to good times in the economy are the times for us to collectively gain ground in that regard)

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So much of politics, political opinion, and policy ends up being guided by the tiny share of complicated issues that people can actually absorb and understand. It's positively alarming.

See, e.g., how often gas prices come up in elections.

[JPhillips]

It's amazing to me that the National Prayer Breakfast is still a thing now that we know that Russian intelligence basically used it as speed dating for operatives and the GOP establishment.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's amazing to me that the National Prayer Breakfast is still a thing now that we know that Russian intelligence basically used it as speed dating for operatives and the GOP establishment.

Why do you hate Jesus, JPhillips?

[Thomkal]

Nominee for Attorney General passes committee confirmation vote along party lines to move on to Confirmation vote next week.


Acting AG Whitaker scheduled to testify before House Judicary tomorrow has said today he is still willing to testify if Chairman Nadler does not subpoena him today or tomorrow. Committee along party lines again votes to have a subpoena ready if Whitaker does not testify or invokes executive priviledge

[Thomkal]

So John McCain's widow Cindy who is the co-chair of Arizona's Human Trafficking Council, thought she spotted a case of trafficking taking place at the Phoenix airport because she spotted a woman with a child of a different ethnicty. She went to the police about and claimed she had just stopped the crime. She didn't-nothing was wrong after police investigated:


Attention Required! | Cloudflare

[Edward64]

Where we stand now on the budget deal. There's hope for a compromise with Congress.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/07/polit...ons/index.html

The backstop: As is often the case, when deadlines get close, lawmakers start talking about a short-term, one- or two-week stop-gap funding bill. Democrats have floated the idea, and several Senate Republicans have said it may be necessary as a backstop while talks continue.

Notably, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told a closed-door meeting of GOP committee chairs on Wednesday he did not think a stop-gap bill was a good idea, according to one participant -- and there's real question as to whether the president would even sign one. The message was negotiators need to reach a deal -- and get it done now.

The sticking points:

Border barriers -- the topline funding number, the location and the actual structure chosen for the barriers are still under discussion. Note that Democrats have clearly moved off their position of no money for border barriers. Republicans accept $5.7 billion is a non-starter. It's not a question of if there will be barriers. The key now, per multiple sources involved is narrowing the gap on number, location and type of barrier.

Detention beds -- Democrats, particularly in the House, are deeply opposed to increased funding for detention facilities to house detained undocumented immigrants. Republicans consider the funding increases in this area a must. This is a significant sticking point that has flown under the radar to some degree amid the wall fight.

Personnel -- Democrats proposed hiring 1,000 new customs agents, but had restrictions on increasing other personnel on the border. Republicans want a significant increase in border patrol and ICE personnel. This is not a minor issue -- a large chunk of the Democratic caucus is sharply opposed to increased personnel (the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in a letter to conferees Wednesday, characterized it as "Trump's deportation force" and urged negotiators not to increase any funding.)

An interesting piece of this is the spending parameters the negotiators are working under -- technically the level for the DHS measure is about $49 billion. Republicans, in past proposals, have sought to get around those caps via emergency funding to help finance the President's priorities. There's some dispute over whether that option is on the table here, according to people involved, but more broadly it's important to note that it's not like there's unlimited funds to just plunge into the bill.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So John McCain's widow Cindy who is the co-chair of Arizona's Human Trafficking Council, thought she spotted a case of trafficking taking place at the Phoenix airport because she spotted a woman with a child of a different ethnicty. She went to the police about and claimed she had just stopped the crime. She didn't-nothing was wrong after police investigated:


Attention Required! | Cloudflare

Pretty embarrassing for her. Not sure what she saw that was suspicious (give her the benefit of doubt, hope it wasn't just skin color) but to claim she was right at that time is troubling. The investigators either gave her the wrong info or she just jumped to conclusions she shouldn't have.