WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[dubb93]

That sucks, bodyguard and seer on the same day. Anyone have an undated vote analysis to reflect bloody tuesday we had here today?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Had a quick check back - of the three candidates for lynching tonight, I'm least inclined to vote for claphamsa, although this is more because I'm more suspicious of the other two. I don't like some of the moves that saldana has made, particularly in the day 2 voting (introducing a new candidate late in the day in a well-developed two-way vote?), but I'm not seeing enough there to convince me to switch away from Telle - voting history is not good, and I've been getting bad vibes from some of her posts.

This is from this afternoon. Will keep looking for more.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Had a quick check back - of the three candidates for lynching tonight, I'm least inclined to vote for claphamsa, although this is more because I'm more suspicious of the other two. I don't like some of the moves that saldana has made, particularly in the day 2 voting (introducing a new candidate late in the day in a well-developed two-way vote?), but I'm not seeing enough there to convince me to switch away from Telle - voting history is not good, and I've been getting bad vibes from some of her posts.

Originally Posted by dubb93

That sucks, bodyguard and seer on the same day. Anyone have an undated vote analysis to reflect bloody tuesday we had here today?

Here is the one from today.


Telle - Poli (2452), Clap (2467), MartinD (2558), PF (2590), Abe (2595), Saldana (2604), Lathum (2614), Dubb (2622), MT (2635)
Clap - Hoops (2476), Chief (2501), Autumn (2513), Telle (2587), Jackal (2627)


2452 Poli votes Telle 1-0
2467 Clap votes Telle 2-0
2472 Lathum votes Hoops 2-1 Telle over Hoops
2476 Hoops votes Clap 2-1-1 Telle over Hoops/Clap
2481 Lathum unvotes Hoops, votes Saldana 2-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana
2494 Saldana votes Lathum 2-1-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana/Lathum
2501 Chief votes Clap 2-2-1-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana/Lathum
2509 Dubb votes Saldana 2-2-2-1 Telle/Clap/Saldana over Lathum
2513 Autumn votes Clap 3-2-2-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum
2521 Abe votes Hoops 3-2-2-1-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2558 MartinD votes Telle 3-3-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2587 Telle votes Clap 4-3-2-1-1 Clap over Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2590 PF votes Telle 4-4-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2593 Jackal votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2595 Abe unvotes Hoops, votes telle 5-4-3-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2598 MT votes Clap 5-5-3-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2604 Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle 6-5-3 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2614 Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 7-5-2 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2622 Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 8-5-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2627 Jackal unvotes Saldana, votes Clap 8-6 Telle over Clap
2635 MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle 9-5 Telle over Clap

[Autumn]

I whiffed the seer as well, though I had Martin as my next best trusted. I really wish he had given us some info, but I guess he thought he was well hidden. I presume the desperate for attention found him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Had a quick check back - of the three candidates for lynching tonight, I'm least inclined to vote for claphamsa, although this is more because I'm more suspicious of the other two. I don't like some of the moves that saldana has made, particularly in the day 2 voting (introducing a new candidate late in the day in a well-developed two-way vote?), but I'm not seeing enough there to convince me to switch away from Telle - voting history is not good, and I've been getting bad vibes from some of her posts.

This is the only post he has ( of his 29, counting the ones about haggis) that anything can be taken from and basically it tells me he hasn't scanned Saldana yet.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I didn't see that one coming.

I think it is safe to say the wolves fear my ability

Why do you think the wolves would have any idea what your "ability" is?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by MartinD

I'm not exactly one to talk, as my post count isn't all that much higher, but lerriuqs does seem to have been abnormally quiet during this game.

I'm not going to put my vote his way now, but I'm definitely leaning that way unless either he comes on with a good reason/explanation, or there's a very good reason for me to vote for someone else.

This is from Day 4 - nothing I've seen from that day suggested that he had a better candidate. Later says "Lerriuqs may very well be a villager", which he technically was.

[Lathum]

I thought Poli was the seer

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Why do you think the wolves would have any idea what your "ability" is?

because I put a quick vote on PB day 2, then BK's role come comes back that he has an extra vote added on so maybe they think I have something similar and they have criticized me 2 times in a row now.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I've got a ton of questions for people at this point but I recognize that I'm probably on nearly everyone's short list for a wolf right about now with bad votes on the EF and Telle lynchings.

I'll start here - Poli, you obviously are not seer, BG, or duke so you can't role reveal. But was your determination to get Telle yesterday purely gut-driven or was there something more that led you in that direction?

[hoopsguy]

OK, thinking this one through - wolves were actually sitting pretty today.
1.) They nail MartinD with their "seer detector" role last night
2.) Clap pseudo-reveals, and they know he is not the seer because they already have the seer and they know he is not a wolf
3.) They can sacrifice the brutal - who was already under continued fire - to test the Clap theory and ensure that they get to pluck the seer tonight. Even if Clap isn't the BG, chances are pretty good that MartinD is not going to attract a guard

[Autumn]

Well, I'm going to bed but I don't see any reason to hesitate on getting candidates out there. I've waffled on TheJackal because he suggested he was an independent in the beginning. But he is the only person standing who has voted for a villager every vote. Pretty damning it seems to me.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, do you have a chart that lists end-of-day votes for everyone left?

[Lathum]

I think I would vote Hoops if I could, but I can get behind a Jackal vote also

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Autumn, do you have a chart that lists end-of-day votes for everyone left?

I do though I don't know if I can import it here easily.

[hoopsguy]

Right now, I've moved Poli up near the top of my trust lists. His Telle crusade seems to have started before the N4 results came back, where the wolves likely learned about MartinD. So I don't see him being in a position where he was looking to earn credibility today with his vote on Telle. He has put his votes there consistently (going from memory) over the past few days and amped up his intensity last night asking for others to back him.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I would vote Hoops if I could, but I can get behind a Jackal vote also

I'll be interested to see what other candidates are offered up.

[Autumn]

I've got to go to bed. But in the morning I will put up some data that I'm going on. At this point we'll have to be as transparent as possible, I think.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I do though I don't know if I can import it here easily.

Hoops - D1 EF, D2 PB, D3 Jackal, D4 Clap D5 Clap

That is how I would list them - probably easier if you have one completed spreadsheet in front of you than me pulling up a collection of Notepad files to repeat stuff you already have done.

[hoopsguy]

Well, a couple of days ago there were three distrust lists that I saw published while looking at the EF voting.

Lathum's list - Clap, Jackal, Abe, Lerriuqs, Telle, Saldana
Autumn's list - Telle, Jackal, Lerriuqs
My list - Clap, Jackal, Saldana, Telle, Poli, Pass, DT

Autumn's list has worked out pretty darn well so far with a wolf and a sympathizer on it. He is now voting for the 3rd person on his list, so I think I can say that his approach has been consistent.

[hoopsguy]

My lists have dramatically changed now that I know that Autumn is not the seer. I had given a couple of people some extra latitude as a result of what I perceived as changes from evening/daytime on his trust lists.

Looking through my notes from earlier:
2. Jackal - if Autumn is the seer then I think he was the N3 scan. If Autumn is not the seer then all bets are off.
3. Abe - if Autumn is the seer then pretty good chance he scanned him N2. If Autumn is not the seer then why did the wolves kill BK anyway? Indirect case suggests Abe = good.
And I thought I (or maybe Chief Rum) had been scanned on N4 when Autumn made a comment about following the two of us on a vote today.

[The Jackal]

I really don't know how to argue against this. I was hoping the seer would scan me, but now we don't know if he did or not. I've been wrong with my votes, and I have no role that helps the village, so if knocking me off helps with vote analysis or narrow things down, have at it.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Autumn

As of the Day 2 vote, I think we were 15-5, including the Sympathizer as good ('cause I presume they didn't know who was a wolf). On that day we had 9 votes on EagleFan, and 10 on other targets. Other than the possibility of an early wolf on wolf vote that couldn't be changed, I presume all wolf votes were on other targets since it was so down to the wire.

I also presume that unless a wolf was unavailable, they would have switched a vote from the two non-contenders to PB, now that we know for sure he was good. Saldana, Clap and Barkeep all voted close enough to the end that it seems they could have easily saved EF.

It seems then that chances are that most of the 4 wolves that could vote were on PB. Out of the 7 votes on him, Abe is the only one that I feel sure isn't a wolf vote. Telle and Jackal also voted PB on Day 1. Chief Rum made a pretty obvious late day push to get people off of EF, though he did vote Ef on Day 1. Lathum made his notorious strange early day vote on PB which is hard to read.

I think we'll find most of our four remaining wolves among:

Lathum
Hoopsguy
Telle
Jackal
Lerriuqs
Chief Rum

What I would love to see most tomorrow is a run off between two to three of these candidates.

Lathum - ???
Hoops - ??? (well, I know)
Telle - wolf
Jackal - ???
Lerriuqs - sympathizer
Chief Rum - ???

[hoopsguy]

11 players left, worst-case ratio is 8-3 at this point. No seer, no BG, no brutal wolf.

Assuming nothing really strange, we have two days left to get a good lynch in. With the Telle lynch today, we should have some pretty good voting records as well.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

11 players left, worst-case ratio is 8-3 at this point. No seer, no BG, no brutal wolf.

Assuming nothing really strange, we have two days left to get a good lynch in. With the Telle lynch today, we should have some pretty good voting records as well.

Also, for better or worse we are only going to have ten votes today since Lathum is not part of the mix.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I really don't know how to argue against this. I was hoping the seer would scan me, but now we don't know if he did or not. I've been wrong with my votes, and I have no role that helps the village, so if knocking me off helps with vote analysis or narrow things down, have at it.

Really? None at all that has any potential to help?

But with your own set of win conditions, based on what you suggested on Day 1?

I'm calling BS, based on my own role and the roles I've seen revealed on death up to this point in the game.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[Lathum]

hoops, you seem to have alot of theories, whats your theory on why you criticized me twice in a row?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm pretty sure he means he has an unlisted role that's a group member but has additional win conditions and can't help or hurt the group. I say this because I have something similar.

I believe that this is the first post by The Jackal once the game started.

Note that BK did not have separate/additional win conditions.

I'm having a hard time accepting that Jackal is a villager with a useless role and separate win conditions.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

hoops, you seem to have alot of theories, whats your theory on why you criticized me twice in a row?

Honestly, I do not know where to go with it. I don't think it is "fearing" you as a villager because they could just night kill you to address that concern.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Really? None at all that has any potential to help?

But with your own set of win conditions, based on what you suggested on Day 1?

I'm calling BS, based on my own role and the roles I've seen revealed on death up to this point in the game.

VOTE THE JACKAL

It's not BS. You'll see. I don't know what I can say about it, but it's absolutely useless to the village.

[The Jackal]

VOTE HOOPS

[The Jackal]

It's definitely a mechanic that's been used before, I've even had it with different roles.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

It's not BS. You'll see. I don't know what I can say about it, but it's absolutely useless to the village.

Now might be a good time to start exploring the boundaries a little bit?

If it is useless to the village than who is it useful for? I'm seriously trying to understand, not making the "hah, he is a wolf!" play here because it seems very strange to give you separate win conditions and nothing at all to do with your role.

[The Jackal]

It's not a role that has any impact on the game. It's like a side-game. I'll ask Danny if I can say something.

[The Jackal]

I don't expect you to be genuine in this if you're a wolf, because you'll need to push me as the lynch subject. But if you're a villager, feel free to keep probing and I'll answer as best I can. I asked Danny about what I can say and we'll see what he says. I unfortunately sound like Lathum from earlier, but at least I didn't lead a damn day of voting with confusion because of it.

[dubb93]

I'm not casting a vote tonight and I'm heading to bed. I have to get up for work in less than 6 hours.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

It's not a role that has any impact on the game. It's like a side-game. I'll ask Danny if I can say something.

He has a list of people he has to get voted out in order to win. I'm guessing the list was come up with random.org. Am I right. That is the only thing I can think of.

[dubb93]

I may stick around to see if I scored with my guess.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't expect you to be genuine in this if you're a wolf, because you'll need to push me as the lynch subject. But if you're a villager, feel free to keep probing and I'll answer as best I can. I asked Danny about what I can say and we'll see what he says. I unfortunately sound like Lathum from earlier, but at least I didn't lead a damn day of voting with confusion because of it.

I don't know that playing a Pass version of 20 Questions ("are you an escaped prisoner with a goal to outlive three players who wronged you in a past life?") is going to work as the mechanics of the game don't let you give a direct answer if it is yes. But the two factors that I listed above (unique win conditions, useless to village) just do not seem to jive with a villager role in my mind. Just about all the roles we have seen up to this point suggest some sort of value.

So, I'll take this in another direction for now ...

What do you think about that quote from Autumn back during the D2 vote analysis? Where there are six names with "bad" D2 votes, two of whom are dead as a wolf and the sympathizer?

I'm on the remaining four names and so are you. Do you think that is a good place to look right now? If not, do you see a better place to look?

Does Saldana deserve a pass for avoiding that vote? The other two who did, BK and Clap, were both revealed as good in death.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

He has a list of people he has to get voted out in order to win. I'm guessing the list was come up with random.org. Am I right. That is the only thing I can think of.

Heh, posted something very similar a couple of posts later.

[The Jackal]

Hoops, I think that list is a pretty good place to look, even though I'm on it.

[The Jackal]

And no, I don't think saldana deserves a pass for sidestepping that vote. Votes like that can be used to sidestep vote analysis later, don't like em.

[The Jackal]

Dubb, I'm not going to answer any questions directly about my role. I asked Danny if I could say a thing or two, and when he lets me know, I'll post it or I won't.

[hoopsguy]

One last mental exercise before calling it a night:

Reasons for players that they are not a wolf:
1. Jackal - wolf would try to have at least one good vote by now?
2. Abe - strange N2 kill on BK suggests that they wanted "lovers" death with him?
3. PF - D2 and D5 votes for wolves
4. Hoops - you guys get to fill in the answer you want for this one
5. Lathum - D1 vote on EF pushed him towards front, erratic play towards PB drew attention that isn't needed as a wolf, double vote squelch?
6. Poli - D2 and D5 votes for wolves, led charge on Telle before there was any potential for wolf advantage
7. Dubb - D2 and D5 votes for wolves, probably has best voting record in the game when factoring in D1 vote for EF as well
8. Autumn - good D2 vote on EF
9. ChiefRum - D1 vote for EF?
10. DT - D2 and D5 votes for wolves
11. Saldana - D5 vote for wolf?

Anyway, that is my effort at constructing reasons to not vote for people. If people have additional reasons to not vote for someone please quote this and add on any missing logic.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

but at least I didn't lead a damn day of voting with confusion because of it.

you mean the day we bagged a wolf and got a lot of greats votes to analyze?

[Lathum]

Hoops, you failed to mention my switch to Telle today putting her in the lead late.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

One last mental exercise before calling it a night:

Reasons for players that they are not a wolf:
1. Jackal - wolf would try to have at least one good vote by now?
2. Abe - strange N2 kill on BK suggests that they wanted "lovers" death with him?
3. PF - D2 and D5 votes for wolves
4. Hoops - you guys get to fill in the answer you want for this one
5. Lathum - D1 vote on EF pushed him towards front, erratic play towards PB drew attention that isn't needed as a wolf, double vote squelch? switch to Telle today putting her in the lead late.
6. Poli - D2 and D5 votes for wolves, led charge on Telle before there was any potential for wolf advantage
7. Dubb - D2 and D5 votes for wolves, probably has best voting record in the game when factoring in D1 vote for EF as well
8. Autumn - good D2 vote on EF
9. ChiefRum - D1 vote for EF?
10. DT - D2 and D5 votes for wolves
11. Saldana - D5 vote for wolf?

Anyway, that is my effort at constructing reasons to not vote for people. If people have additional reasons to not vote for someone please quote this and add on any missing logic.

,

[dubb93]

Alright, I really am out this time. Good night guys.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Hoops, I think that list is a pretty good place to look, even though I'm on it.

So that leaves you looking at three names on the list.
Most villagers are probably weighing four names on that list.

I may come back to this point a little later on tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops, you failed to mention my switch to Telle today putting her in the lead late.

Lathum, assuming you are making that move as a villager - do you see that the wolves were willing to make that move today?

Telle was going to get nailed to a wall sometime soon by virtue of the heat she was getting in every direction and the fact that the person they knew was the seer was voting for her. They had a shot at both the seer and a roled Clap in the same day by allowing Telle to fail. And the late movers can pick up some trust in the process as an added bonus.

If you think that the wolves could think this way, then you look at that late movement a little bit differently.

Sure, if they thought they could get Clap lynched today then they keep their brutal for tomorrow. But what if the alternate target ended up being Saldana and Clap is still around at night to potentially block them (remember, they knew seer already, so what role is Clap going to have when they know he is a villager and not seer?) when they go for the seer? Was Saldana a wolf or a villager? If he was a wolf, then it was obviously easier to just give up Telle here.

Anyway, that is why I'm noting who had votes on the wolf but not calling out early/late movement on that particular vote.