Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[hoopsguy]

Assuming we have both IA and SWAT around tomorrow, that person could potentially guard IA for a night, ensuring that there is another person that is viewed Night 4.

I think we both agree they come forward with any information on a Zombie.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, in the event it goes down that way then I guess it depends on the quality of the other information they possess. If they had information on Cronin and one other STARS then I think it is pretty borderline. But we would have a 3 person CoT for the day. If they have info on you and two more STARS then we have a four person CoT.

Your scenario involves having you cleared and we are guessing about the other people in the game. Obviously the person with this role can assess the value of their information, but I would advocate having as big a CoT as we can possibly have tomorrow and then let the zombies worry about tearing it down the rest of the game.

My guess is cronin would be night 1 scan and I would have been last night scan. I at least hope so. but that would end up being a 2 person CoT when in my feeling isn't enough to warrant revealing themselves, especially to just save me.

Since right now I still have in my head that you are a zombie I am hoping if they do scan you they will turn that up and then I agree revealing is good.

maybe saving a different Stars player is worth more to the point he should reveal himself. But I'm not worth it.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

As I'm following along from the grave, I will be rooting hard for whatever team AlanT is on to lose. Even if that is STARS.

That is all.

Sorry. I'll talk to you in PM after Im eliminated to tell you what you did that made me think you were bad initially. I already said most of it.

[hoopsguy]

No, it would be at least a 3 person list if they are all STARS. IA, you, and another person even if they had scanned Cronin. Potentially four if they did not scan Cronin.

I think it is a long way from a sure thing that Cronin was scanned by IA. If they had scanned Cronin, they had an opportunity to step forward yesterday and prevent what happened. Pretty much everyone in the room agreed Day 3 was pretty important to not lynch STARS, with the looming threat of a conversion.

[hoopsguy]

Anyways, will be back later to discuss this further - going to grab lunch.

[Chief Rum]

It looks like Alan has been busy, or chose not to put up a vote pattern, so since I just went through, Day Three, here's what I came up with:

Day Three voting

(935) Fouts votes SnDvls (1)
(949) AlanT votes St.Cronin (1)
(979) Anxiety votes Fouts (1)
(987) St. Cronin votes Anxiety (1)
(1017) BrianD votes LSG (1)
(1100) hoopsguy votes St. Cronin (2)
(1137) path12 votes St.Cronin (3)
(1143) BrianD UNVOTES LSG (0)***
(1143) BrianD votes St.Cronin (4)
(1151) spleen votes St.Cronin (5)
(1161) ntndeacon votes Fouts (2)
(1181) Glengoyne votes SnDvls (2)
(1189) SnDvls votes Glengoyne (1)
(1194) LSG votes Fouts (3)
(1199) Chief Rum votes St.Cronin (6)
(1216) Mr.Wednesday votes St.Cronin (7)

I tried to stick to what appears Alan's formatting was.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

We all play our gut in this game - it is a game of incomplete information. But if you have two unknowns in a run-off, why not see how it plays out? You are going to get information from it, and how does introducing a 3rd unknown help going forward?

Unless you feel like you have a "known" to introduce. Of course, there are only a couple of roles on STARS that could have a "known" ...


I would argue that it is different if you have a "known good" versus an unknown. That is where Tyrith found himself on Day 2.

I'm catching up. I'd just like to comment on this bit about "seeing how it plays out".

My initial gut instinct was that Alan was possibly not good, he just seemed too confident in his statements. My thinking was that it was a sham.

Then Cronin. My gut said that Cronin was a likely good guy.

For a while I tended to trust you as well. You and Cronin were moving into the realm of trustworthy. Then the Hoops Cronin Alan triangle started. I began to think that there were a few scenarios.
1-All of you are Stars, which would be a coup. If we could work together.
2-Alan is not evil, he is simply misguided about Cronin, and I feared that Hoops was working to mend the division between Alan and Cronin to form a false CoT amongst you three. Hoops being Evil, in that case.
3-Alan and Hoops are evil, and playing the lot of us. This became my suspicion especially when the "Cronin is a zombie" angle got floated.
4-Alan is evil, and played Hoops.
5-I was wrong about Cronin, and all of these go out the window.

Right now, I'm leaning toward three and four. I'm not trying to distinguish factions, but yeah that is how I feel about it.

As for having to decide between two unknowns, I'm going to follow my gut before I leave it to chance or follow along with a line of reasoning that I'm not buying into.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

It looks like Alan has been busy, or chose not to put up a vote pattern, so since I just went through, Day Three, here's what I came up with:

Day Three voting

(935) Fouts votes SnDvls (1)
(949) AlanT votes St.Cronin (1)
(979) Anxiety votes Fouts (1)
(987) St. Cronin votes Anxiety (1)
(1017) BrianD votes LSG (1)
(1100) hoopsguy votes St. Cronin (2)
(1137) path12 votes St.Cronin (3)
(1143) BrianD UNVOTES LSG (0)***
(1143) BrianD votes St.Cronin (4)
(1151) spleen votes St.Cronin (5)
(1161) ntndeacon votes Fouts (2)
(1181) Glengoyne votes SnDvls (2)
(1189) SnDvls votes Glengoyne (1)
(1194) LSG votes Fouts (3)
(1199) Chief Rum votes St.Cronin (6)
(1216) Mr.Wednesday votes St.Cronin (7)

I tried to stick to what appears Alan's formatting was.

to be honest, I wasn't busy. I was frustrated with myself. After the lynch results I closed up all of my notepad files (saved or unsaved) and just walked away for a while.

So I don't even have it to post anymore without going back through and re-looking them up. Sorry

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

to be honest, I wasn't busy. I was frustrated with myself. After the lynch results I closed up all of my notepad files (saved or unsaved) and just walked away for a while.

So I don't even have it to post anymore without going back through and re-looking them up. Sorry

No need to be sorry. I didn't think it was you forgetting or getting too busy. I felt you purposely didn't post it. I just wasn't sure if you didn't post it out of frustration or if there was an in-game reason.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, I'm just vanilla, I don't have any role. Thats why I really am not that important other than 1 more number closer to or from losing the game. The only thing I have to bring to this game is my analysis which is clearly flawed.

So right now I'm just an extra day for the Stars is all. Not much more benefit.

Originally Posted by Alan T

And just a note, hoops was saying that whoever was IA should come out and save me perhaps to save us a day from lynching more Stars if Im good.

I'm guessing that I already have been scanned, and if not I probably will. But I really am not worth blowing your role to save. You should come out and say if Im zombie or umbrella obviously, but whoever it is you know what my allegiance is, so please believe me when I say I'm nothing important.

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

Ok, I've been called a dumbass, a horrible Werewolf player and annoying. Pardon me if I throw a pity party.

For the record, when I think other people are playing horribly, I usually don't call you all names, but you all continue to do so on me. I made a mistake, I accept that. The name calling is pretty rediculous though that I have so far tolerated.

My entire point was that I don't think the seer should out himself for me. Hoopsguy was trying to get the seer to out himself to say I am STARS to prevent people from lynching me. I don't think thats a smart move. But whatever

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

These two posts actually annoy me. "I'm just a poor stars player with no role. I'm as good as dead. All I have is my tremendous, albeit misguided, intellect. I'm throwing a pity party as you guys lynch me."

Then "I'm worthless, but I want the seer to ID himself for my buddies, if I'm bad"

For goodness sake. If you are stars, I don't buy that for a second, then get off the pity pot and do some more analysis. This other course of action is just ....annoying.

And since I am so annoying to you, what other analysis do you want from me? I obviously was wrong about everything in this game up to this point, so why do you even care what i think anymore? Several others have made sure to make it known they don't care.

I've already given the only analysis I have right now, but I'll repeat again for you since I'm so annoying to you. My hunch is hoops being a zombie knew Cronin wasn't a zombie. From reading the interaction between him and Lathum and then knowing that I wasn't a zombie knew I was either STars or umbrella he assumed Cronin must not be umbrella either.

Hoops felt it was a win-win play for him to go along with me since if it failed on Cronin, I took the heat and he was merely convinced. If Cronin was umbrella, then he would get some trust from people for voting a bad guy.

Hoops then is taking my failure and trying to get the seer to out himself to protect me or to reveal me as umbrella.

Right now I have huge alarms in my head going off about Hoops, but thats just my analysis which I have already provided.

Now disagree with that analysis, think Im a bad guy, lynch me.. whatever. But you all and your cutdowns are just childish and gradeschool, and makes this game less fun to play.

If you think I'm bad lynch me, don't insult me. Thanks

[hoopsguy]

Alan, there is a difference between the play and the player. I in no way think you are any of the above that you have listed. If you are STARS I'm baffled by your certainty over the last two days. If you are not STARS then my hat is off to your play.

I think we need to have our best shot at a good lynch tomorrow. I'm open for any alternatives to the "seer" coming out that people can propose.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok, I've been called a dumbass, a horrible Werewolf player and annoying. Pardon me if I throw a pity party.

For the record, when I think other people are playing horribly, I usually don't call you all names, but you all continue to do so on me. I made a mistake, I accept that. The name calling is pretty rediculous though that I have so far tolerated.

My entire point was that I don't think the seer should out himself for me. Hoopsguy was trying to get the seer to out himself to say I am STARS to prevent people from lynching me. I don't think thats a smart move. But whatever

Two things.
First I didn't intend to call you a name. I don't think you are playing horribly. I think you very likely manipulated a huge vote swing against someone on an opposing team. I just found the angle you were taking today, attempting to swing yourself back into the good graces of the unknowing stars with a pity me I'm frustrated angle, to be annoying. I think cogent analysis would be a more respectable avenue to take. You might actually still be usefull to us, IF you do come up stars. At least pretend to be a useful star.

Second. After reading a few more posts, I thought your plan with the seer was more sensible than Hoops.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Alan T

And since I am so annoying to you, what other analysis do you want from me? I obviously was wrong about everything in this game up to this point, so why do you even care what i think anymore? Several others have made sure to make it known they don't care.

I've already given the only analysis I have right now, but I'll repeat again for you since I'm so annoying to you. My hunch is hoops being a zombie knew Cronin wasn't a zombie. From reading the interaction between him and Lathum and then knowing that I wasn't a zombie knew I was either STars or umbrella he assumed Cronin must not be umbrella either.

Hoops felt it was a win-win play for him to go along with me since if it failed on Cronin, I took the heat and he was merely convinced. If Cronin was umbrella, then he would get some trust from people for voting a bad guy.

Hoops then is taking my failure and trying to get the seer to out himself to protect me or to reveal me as umbrella.

Right now I have huge alarms in my head going off about Hoops, but thats just my analysis which I have already provided.

Now disagree with that analysis, think Im a bad guy, lynch me.. whatever. But you all and your cutdowns are just childish and gradeschool, and makes this game less fun to play.

If you think I'm bad lynch me, don't insult me. Thanks

I'm really not trying to be insulting. I apologize for any offense I may have given you. Consider that post a "prod" or a "swift kick" to change your course of action. It was your play today I was critical of. Not what you've done in the past, as if you've done what I suspect you've done, your play previous today was inspired.

I actually like the analysis above regardig hoops, because I don't want him getting a pass today either.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I'm not sure why Alan should feel he is so under attack, but then I am not in his shoes. From my perspective, he has helped us out immensely with his theories. I much prefer someone coming up with theories that turn out bad, then no one doing any analysis at all. So kudos, Alan, even if it hasn't worked out so far.

I, of course, reserve the right to retract the above statement and call you a cad if it turns out you're playing us brilliantly, you bastard.

Seriously, though, Alan's theories have made some sense and he has spelled things out pretty well. While they may have been wrong, but prior to the lynches/kills, they all semeed to have some validity (I think everyone would acknowledge that, even if they disagreed with Alan).

[hoopsguy]

Chief, the problem was is that Alan went for broke on something that was not a sure thing and argued it so strenuously that he brought other players along (well, me at least) with the belief he had 100% information. And STARS is in a pretty bad spot right now as a result.

He isn't the only person who screwed up. Obviously a lot of us did to get to where we are today.

Glen, in terms of me getting a "pass" on Day 4, I'm guessing that is not happening. Put me #2 in line of people who have something to answer for yesterday.

[Fouts]

So we're down to 13 players. If we started with 2 zombies, then its now 11-2 villager > zombie ratio. After night 3 conversion, 10-3. If we do not get a zombie in the lynch, and 2 night 4 kills we'll be at 7-3. Repeat 3 deaths on night 5 and its 4-3. So day 6 is our last day unless we find a zombie.

I think it would be wise for the Umbrella to be helping us find a zombie. They want to win, but not let the zombies win before they do.

[Fouts]

So given Alan's screwup on st.cronin, where does that leave me? I kept saying Alan's 99.9% scenario between cronin and me was wrong, but then was linked to Lathum by Alan.

Am I still considered a bad guy?

[hoopsguy]

Fouts, I also was suspicious of you based on Lathum's play. But I had not put much stock in the "Fouts or Cronin must be bad" theory.

If people want to assume you are Umbrella for tomorrow, that probably isn't the worst spot for you to be in ...

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Fouts, I also was suspicious of you based on Lathum's play. But I had not put much stock in the "Fouts or Cronin must be bad" theory.

If people want to assume you are Umbrella for tomorrow, that probably isn't the worst spot for you to be in ...

I suppose I agree. STARS and Umbrella need to work together to get at least one zombie before this gets out of control.

[Chubby]

time check

[Glengoyne]

Crap. I thought deadline was in three hours.

Hehe good thing I have no life, so I could hang out here for this NOW.

[Chubby]

As the sun rises on another day, the citizens of Raccoon City worry what horrors they will awake to today. With two deaths the previous night, they wonder who they may find missing this morning.

A quick head count reveals that they are shorthanded, they are missing one person... NTNDEACON!

A quick search of the town square leads the citizens to search for ntndeacon at his home. Once there, they find his door smashed in and a gruesome scene in the living room. They find ntndeacon at his desk with the top half of his skull removed, brains half eaten. They find what appears to be type writer ribbons in his pocket. Whatever he was using them for, they sure didn't save him...

Day Four ends Sun 11pm EST

[ntndeacon]

well Phooey. good luck everyone.

[Alan T]

Not an entirely unpredictable move. People tossed hints about ntndeacon around yesterday asking what folks thought about him (Im guessing thinking he might be the chief). he was the next to last person I had to rule out as the chief before i knew he wasnt the chief.. so not entirely unexpected

[SnDvls]

so that makes five vanilla stars members now?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

so that makes five vanilla stars members now?

Yes. So in my mind its only me and 1 other vanilla stars members left. Anyone else claiming to be vanilla probably isn't (or we extremely underestimated the numbers of stars to start with)

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Not an entirely unpredictable move. People tossed hints about ntndeacon around yesterday asking what folks thought about him (Im guessing thinking he might be the chief). he was the next to last person I had to rule out as the chief before i knew he wasnt the chief.. so not entirely unexpected

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

Nah I knew he wasnt the chief. My guess right now is that there is no chief in this game.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

When I read the bit about typewriter ribbons, I thought maybe he was the chief. Page one doesn't indicate that. Another damn stars tonight.

Who got turned though?

Not me.

[ntndeacon]

me either. and the ribbon had the script for Night of the Living Dead on it

[Fouts]

Where do we go now? I'm willing to listen to hoops, as alan has been wrong, terribly wrong.

[Glengoyne]

Alan has been wrong..AND I'm not sure that Hoops wasn't his partner in crime.

I do trust Hoops a whole lot more than Alan at this point though.

[Chubby]

Dodgerchick is taking Anxiety's place.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I think we need to figure out what the Alan T strategy is for today. If there is not an Internal Affairs officer coming forward with a list of some sort then this gets harder for us.

Looks like the deadline is Sunday night, so hopefully everyone will be available to at least check in over the next 24 hours.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, I think we need to figure out what the Alan T strategy is for today. If there is not an Internal Affairs officer coming forward with a list of some sort then this gets harder for us.

Looks like the deadline is Sunday night, so hopefully everyone will be available to at least check in over the next 24 hours.

Vote hoopsguy

My analysis have all been wrong about all kinds of things. I still believe what I say about Hoops trying to out the seer. I'm just putting this out here as a statement vote. I'll move it based on whatever we learn from night activities.

I'm sure hoops won't mind though since a vote from me will likely cause everyone else to stay away from him.

[BrianD]

I have been following along with the discussion today but didn't want to say a whole lot before the night actions. I can't say I am too surprised by the kill since I was starting to think that NTN might be the PC. On that assumption I was going to think about leading a charge on Fouts, but since we know NTN wasn't the PC, I no longer have any particular reason to suspect Fouts.

I understand the current Alan/Hoops situation, and we may need to look at those two. It does seem like Alan has led us quite off target, but I'm going to have to go back to see if I think it was planned. I had my own suspicions about St.Cronin from the start, so I can't claim that Alan directed me anywhere. My logic took me to the same guy.

I will bring up the point again about looking at UTR people. I am going to guess that we haven't had any votes (or at least more than one) for the zombie infector. I think the damage has already been done on that front, bit I think we are going to have to dig if we still want to find the infector.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Nah I knew he wasnt the chief. My guess right now is that there is no chief in this game.

Huh? So you think the role is a red herring? Wouldn't it be needed from a balance standpoint?

[path12]

So was anyone attacked last night? I figure if nobody answers this then there was a successful conversion.

[path12]

Originally Posted by BrianD

I will bring up the point again about looking at UTR people. I am going to guess that we haven't had any votes (or at least more than one) for the zombie infector. I think the damage has already been done on that front, bit I think we are going to have to dig if we still want to find the infector.

Brian, I'm curious about your reason for thinking that there's been no votes for the infector. I assume it is that you figure they've been trying not to be noticed but wanted to make sure.

I'm also willing at this point (barring an IAD find of zombie/Umbrella) to also start looking at some of the UTR players. Whatever side hoops and Alan are on, I really don't think they're zombies, and with the possible conversion last night, I think that needs to be our focus.

So who do you have in mind besides LSG who I believe you brought up yesterday?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I still think there's a fairly strong possibility that Alan is Umbrella, in which case he would make a bad lynch target.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Huh? So you think the role is a red herring? Wouldn't it be needed from a balance standpoint?

Not really. We had 2 seers, 1 bodyguard, 1 assassin seperate from that role. Thats more than we get in some games.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Vote hoopsguy

My analysis have all been wrong about all kinds of things. I still believe what I say about Hoops trying to out the seer. I'm just putting this out here as a statement vote. I'll move it based on whatever we learn from night activities.

I'm sure hoops won't mind though since a vote from me will likely cause everyone else to stay away from him.

Alan, do what you have to do. I think we are deep enough in the game without a circle of trust that we are moving too close to the edge to screw up another vote today. I'm actually trying to have reasons to keep you alive rather than see you get offed solely as backlash for the Cronin thing. But if you want to see it as me "outing" the seer then so be it.

I do agree with you that if the Police Chief is in the game he has been inscrutable. Which is great for avoiding Zombies but sucks for us learning much when he is dead. Maybe there will be a pattern in the posts, more than the votes.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, do what you have to do. I think we are deep enough in the game without a circle of trust that we are moving too close to the edge to screw up another vote today. I'm actually trying to have reasons to keep you alive rather than see you get offed solely as backlash for the Cronin thing. But if you want to see it as me "outing" the seer then so be it.

I do agree with you that if the Police Chief is in the game he has been inscrutable. Which is great for avoiding Zombies but sucks for us learning much when he is dead. Maybe there will be a pattern in the posts, more than the votes.

Like I said, no one is coming out today to say I am umbrella or zombie. People have had plenty of opportunities to verify whether that is the case or not. Its up to the individual players in those roles to decide if they feel its worth coming out to say I am STARS or not. I will leave it up to their judgement on how they want to play their role. I personally don't feel its worth outing themselves to save me. I would rather give them an extra day to try to hit a zombie. (or even give us several umbrella members).

[hoopsguy]

By the way, it was completely obvious that NTN would be the target last night if he was not a zombie. Day 1 vote - Cronin and Bullet dead, only stray vote was NTN on Fouts.

What do we learn from it? Well, the Zombies would already know if Fouts was a Zombie, so nothing there. But they would not have a way of knowing if Fouts is an Umbrella or STARS.

NTN's other votes went to Lathum and back to Fouts. This is where I believed that NTN was not the PC - why would he return to voting for Fouts again on Day 3? Then again, why has the Chief done anything he has done this game? I still can not figure that out. Still, NTN had a "perfect" voting record insofar as he had not been proven to vote for a single STARS member yet and he was the only remaining player to fit this profile as everyone else voted Bullet/Cronin on Day 1.

[hoopsguy]

We still have four people left to check in - after I have seen all of those people post in the thread I'll start to adopt the idea that someone has scanned you as STARS and elected to keep the info to themselves.

Obviously that is one way to play it. But having a two man circle of trust (self + Alan) isn't as valuable, in my opinion, as having a larger circle today for this specific vote. We get one Zombie and we may be able to start establishing links, direct or indirect, to the rest of them. I think that is worth the risk associated with a role reveal. The bodyguard can protect part of the circle of trust, and potentially the IA can scan another person the following day.

We are not going to have many more "following days" if we miss on today's lynch. If the Zombies started with 3 and converted a 4th we are on the brink now. I'm hoping they started with only 2, which leaves both Umbrella and STARS with a still-realistic chance to win.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, would the Police Chief know if a STARS member was converted?

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chubby, would the Police Chief know if a STARS member was converted?

A converted member of S.T.A.R.S. or Umbrella would not tell their superiors that they were now a zombie out of fear of execution.

[spleen1015]

I would like to see us go after someone that is UTR, as BrianD suggested. Other than LSG, I don't know who it should be. So...

VOTE LoneStarGirl