The Trump Presidency – 2016

[RainMaker]

Some numbers on tonight.

Democrats currently have 9 million more votes and a 12.4% advantage in popular vote of Senators. That number should actually grow since California is not close to being done reporting.

Democrats will lose 3 seats.

That should explain the Senate to our foreign members.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The proportional wasn't really proportional though. It hinged on counting slaves (who couldn't vote) as 3/5ths a person.

That was due to the non-slave states not wanting the slave states to have too much power. The original 3/5 proportional representation of slaves was voted down. The south then proposed full representation, which the north voted down. The 3/5 proportional representation of slaves was then agreed upon.

Checking the Census of 1790, the largest state by free white population was Virginia, followed by Pennsylvania. New York was a distant third (by over 20%). Also, Virginia had the largest reserve of land due to the west and northwest land grants they had (which had not been resolved). Southern states expected to grow faster due to having access to more land. MA, RI, NJ, DE, and CT, were all locked out of any claims in the western territories due to their geography and original charters. This was resolved by placing the reserved and disputed areas into the Northwest Territory.

Other southern states gave up their westward land claims as well. NC, SC, and GA all gave up claims that extended west to the Mississippi River.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Just looking at the difference in the "official" (i.e. Sec of State) totals in GA vs the NYT numbers

State showed 299 precincts still to come in, Kemp +115k
NYT showed 98 precincts still to come in, Kemp +114k

The difference in those tends to be NYT will run with anything they get (stringers, poll workers, campaign workers) before it's submitted & processed by the state. (which is totally legit, it's typically coming from boots on the ground/in the room)

Neither good nor bad nor even partisan, just noting the differences in the two with results (which tends to grow as the night grows later & later )

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Some numbers on tonight.

Democrats currently have 9 million more votes and a 12.4% advantage in popular vote of Senators. That number should actually grow since California is not close to being done reporting.

Democrats will lose 3 seats.

That should explain the Senate to our foreign members.

This matters why? The Senate is all about the states having equal say. If the larger population states have their elections (and most of these large states tend to be Democrat strongholds), it is obviously going to skew that way. The smaller states, where the Democrats lost seats are in Republican strongholds.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Rainmaker

The House does not have proportional representation as long as gerrymandering is legal.

On that I agree. Michigan passed a ballot proposal to have an independent commission of voters handle redistricting, which I was glad to have an opportunity to vote for, and I'm pleased it passed. I'd support a constitutional amendment requiring such a system.

Of course, I never argued that things were proportional; I pointed out that the House has not, in fact, been controlled by a minority party in the past Congress. That is simply a fact. Similarly, the rest of your post addressed itself almost completely to arguments I never made, so I'll let my original statements stand, except to say that the reason for the Senate's composition is what Warhammer said, not slavery as you falsely claim. Vis a vis the Missouri Compromise, absolutely. But not on having a Senate that represented the states instead of the people.

[JonInMiddleGA]

GA-6 fits into the vein of "every vote counts"

302,623 votes counted so far. (mailed absentees still to go apparently)

The gap between the candidates? 57 votes

The eventual winner can't exactly claim a mandate on that one lol

[JonInMiddleGA]

And, re: the occasional differences that arise between official counts & perhaps the leading edge of the other sources the NYT.

The Sec of State has more total votes in their total than the NYT
The Sec of State also lists 200 more precincts still outstanding than NYT.

The difference? It appears to me to be how mailed-in absentee votes are considered (and that the SOS site isn't updating that figure as they're added in), i.e. they're counting the votes but because they're kinda "precincts" but not exactly "precincts" the precinct count isn't ticking upward.

[miami_fan]

Dennis Hof, deceased brothel owner, leads Nevada Assembly race | Las Vegas Review-Journal

[lungs]

Scott Walker has been defeated! The funny thing is he signed a law after 2016 requiring the margin to be 1% or less for a recount. He should fall right outside that margin.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Dennis Hof, deceased brothel owner, leads Nevada Assembly race | Las Vegas Review-Journal

I'll go with "Dead Red Redemption" as the headline here

[larrymcg421]

Ironically, the federal system of representation was deemed so fundamentally unfair that it's unconstitutional to enact on a state level. (i.e. giving counties equal voting power regardless of population).

[JonInMiddleGA]

And if the 0.9% vote tally for the (L) forces voters in Georgia to endure 3 more weeks of campaign ads for a runoff, I'd advise the eliminated candidate to keep a low profile. He'll be about as popular as a dose of the clap.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Of course, I never argued that things were proportional; I pointed out that the House has not, in fact, been controlled by a minority party in the past Congress.

You're right it wasn't the last election. Although you don't have to go back far (2012) to find this take place. One party won the popular vote by 1.2% yet ended up with a 7.6% disadvantage in the House. This of course came right after redistricting.

My point has been that our federal government is rather undemocratic.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

except to say that the reason for the Senate's composition is what Warhammer said, not slavery as you falsely claim. Vis a vis the Missouri Compromise, absolutely. But not on having a Senate that represented the states instead of the people.

It's not my claim, it's that of James Madison.

If you haven't read the Federalist Papers, you should. They explicitly tell you why the Senate is necessary. The famous quote which discussed protecting the "minority of the opulent" sums it up well. They specifically mention landowners and their property.

The House was for the peasants. The Senate was a firewall to make sure that those peasants didn't do something that could hurt that upper class. Like abolish slavery.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Dennis Hof, deceased brothel owner, leads Nevada Assembly race | Las Vegas Review-Journal

Someone posted this earlier showing that he was leading with 69% of the vote.

So what happens when a dead person wins the election? Also, it must really suck to lose an election someone who is dead.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It has the feeling that it'll be slightly more positive than 2016, but not in any kind of massive, overwhelming way. Florida is a big disappointment. It looks like it'll stay red in both big races. In fact, most of these races look much worse, at this point in time, than I would have hoped. But I'm sure that tomorrow, it'll both be an amazing wave and complete disappointment, depending on where you look.

Doubtful any result could be more disappointing than 2016, and I'm very glad at least the House flipped because I will take a divided federal government all day, but these results so far seem to be exactly what polling has showed since the Kavanaugh hearings. Certain media outlets were either dumb or playing dumb/editorializing with their Dem support and the idea the Senate was a true toss up. The biggest problem for the Dems is that Trump is not nearly as unpopular, and borderline fence people they need to swing don't care nearly as much about the corruption as the echo chambers do.

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

DOLA: As a Canadian, I don't really get your Senate representation bullshit. Has Senate reform ever really been on the table?

Yes, and the last big change was a constitutional amendment in the 1910's(?) that took the power to appoint Senators away from "the states" (Governors/state legislatures) and gave it to "the people" (popular vote), due to a perception the appointment system favored political and societal elites.

Canada's senate system has some merits when adults are in power, but it would not work here with our current politicians, and even as a proud elitist I find the implication that letting people vote for their senators to be bullshit to be quite weird. Regardless of that I also think the imbalance between, say, British Colombia and the Atlantic provinces is egregious enough I don't understand how a Canadian could call our system bullshit and imply theirs doesn't have it's own massive faults. (That aren't quite as exacerbated because B.C. hasn't had enough time to grow it's population like a California.)

Originally Posted by stevew

I get the concept of a senate but the terms are too long.

Strongly disagree here, especially with how elongated election races have become. I really don't mind having politicians who have some breathing room and aren't actively running for the next term 6 months after they gain office.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It'd be impossible today. It was something they had to do to get the southern states to agree to form the country. They were really concerned about slavery being abolished from a simple majority and this was the best way to protect it.

Idk why you keep saying this, because unlike other parts of the constitution like the 3/5 compromise or the compromise of 1808 it had nothing to slavery and overt racism. These days the majority of states with small population do trend Republican, but that wasn't the case in 1783, and certainly not when Vermont was admitted in 1791.

Originally Posted by Galaril

There is nothing exceptional about modern 21st century America.

I still believe we are a great country that offers freedom of expression, the opportunity to create your own destiny (albeit now there are more limitations on the starting point than there should be), the easiest opportunity in the developed world to assimilate if you want to, and while I acknowledge there are several countries that are on the same level as us I wouldn't trade being and growing up a US citizen for any other one. We have our faults, but I think we're much more open and willing to talk about our faults than any other large economic country, and I'll happily reflexively punch back against weird potshots like that that don't offer any supporting context.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Someone posted this earlier showing that he was leading with 69% of the vote.

So what happens when a dead person wins the election? Also, it must really suck to lose an election someone who is dead.

They have an interesting process (detailed in the article I think, or in one I saw somewhere).

The district covers three counties, so those county commissioners will meet & each will nominate a replacement. Then those three will be considered by a joint session of those counties & they will choose one of the three, with weight given to the counties based on the number of precincts in the district for each.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The eventual winner can't exactly claim a mandate on that one lol

But you can be confident they'll try to anyway.

[larrymcg421]

In GA-6, McBath has now gone ahead of Handel by less than 1,000 votes.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by lungs

Scott Walker has been defeated! The funny thing is he signed a law after 2016 requiring the margin to be 1% or less for a recount. He should fall right outside that margin.

Close, but that's not quite the whole story.

The law he signed in 2016 required that the candidate requesting the recount has to be within 1% or less of the lead.

So if you have a 48.6-48.4-3 race, the dude with 3% can't request a recount (basically what Jill Stein did after Trump carried Wisconsin, although obviously the numbers were different).

It was kind of a roundabout way of trying to prevent third party candidates from agitating for a recount without phrasing the law in such a way as to run afoul of the Equal Protection Clause.

So basically, because local Republicans were annoyed at Jill Stein pulling a look-at-me publicity stunt that changed nothing (and which she had to pay for, since Trump's margin of victory exceeded 0.5%), they passed a law that could have the effect of preventing Scott Walker from seeking a recount.

It's kinda glorious, in a ready-fire-aim sort of way.

[BishopMVP]

NC-9 (the weird gerrymandered one I live in) is still not officially being called, but seems the Republican Harris will hold on.

The good news in state is that Dems were able to break the GOP super majority in the state house and the two egregious ballot initiatives failed. (A very vague Voter ID law did pass, but if the GOP overreaches it'll probably be slapped down by the judiciary again now.)

Similar to Scott Walker being potentially hurt by a law he passed (though I feel none of the recounts with more than even a 100 vote margin has ever been overturned) it was nice to see the Dems (or at least one guy on his own) pull a dirty trick out of his sleeve. After the last judicial election where party affiliations weren't listed and the Dem candidate had better name recognition the Republicans rammed through a bill saying you should print the party on the ballot... and a no name Democratic lawyer flipped his registration to Republican the day before the filing deadline and helped split the Republican vote against the one Democrat who ran, so now Dems have a 5-2 majority on the state supreme court.

[miami_fan]

So does anyone take anything from the exit polling that was done yesterday?

I am still trying to process whether they have meaning or not.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Rainmaker

It's not my claim, it's that of James Madison.

If you haven't read the Federalist Papers, you should. They explicitly tell you why the Senate is necessary.

On the federal government being undemocratic -- I think it would more accurately be stated that it isn't entirely democratic. It is certainly more democratic than undemocratic, but just not as much so as some(presumably yourself included would prefer).

On this statement above, I think it's proof that people can read whatever they want into what they read. I agree that the Federalist Papers make an explicit case for the Senate. I don't understand how anyone with a basic comprehension of the language can rationally think you have accurately assessed that case. Among other things, Madison argued that:

** The Senate preserved a force in favor of the sovereignty of the states
** Made the exact point I have in this thread about 'mob rule', though of course that's not the term he used and it's merely a shorthand way of conveying the concept.
** Clearly described it as a compromise body between the small and large states(not slave and free states). As has been noted, it's not as if all the small states were in the South. Delaware, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine were all small in terms of population.
** Made the exact argument that Scalia did in the video I linked; that the Senate is a check on excessive legislation, which Madison and other framers viewed as the chief flaw in contemporary governments.

I must simply conclude, with all due respect(seriously, with no sarcasm intended), that your conclusions come from a different version of the Federalist Papers, or else a perspective that exists in a much different reality than the facts of history compel me to exist in.

[Edward64]

FWIW, I think we have multiple uses of the word "democratic".

The US is a representative democracy and not a direct democracy (e.g. proportional by population). Never meant to be.

Re: the Senate. Sure a purpose was to protect the interest of the "opulent" (landowners, slaveowners etc.) but its misleading to say that was the only/primary reason.

Re: preference for direct democracy - when in recent history has there been a successful/good direct democracy?


.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

In GA-6, McBath has now gone ahead of Handel by less than 1,000 votes.

I'm so happy for Lucy. She's truly one of the good people out there and her positivity is contagious.

[JPhillips]

Would the GOP prefer to be living in this timeline?

Clinton is stuck at around 45% approval and can't move any meaningful legislation through a GOP controlled congress.

The economy is good, but there are warning signs of a recession on the horizon.

The elections yesterday added to both the House and Senate GOP majorities.

2020 looks very good for the GOP. There's already talk of a Senate supermajority to go along with a GOP presidency.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Someone posted this earlier showing that he was leading with 69% of the vote.

Nice

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

So does anyone take anything from the exit polling that was done yesterday?

I am still trying to process whether they have meaning or not.

Trump is popular in states that will probably decide 2020 and R did better in OH, GA and FL than expected. I think that’s the big takeaway.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Would the GOP prefer to be living in this timeline?

Clinton is stuck at around 45% approval and can't move any meaningful legislation through a GOP controlled congress.

The economy is good, but there are warning signs of a recession on the horizon.

The elections yesterday added to both the House and Senate GOP majorities.

2020 looks very good for the GOP. There's already talk of a Senate supermajority to go along with a GOP presidency.

Thing is, unless Clinton won a squeaker - which wasn't projected as the most likely variety of Clinton victory - she'd have had sufficient coattails to carry a modest Senate majority with her (which she'd almost certainly have lost yesterday; the math on yesterday's Senate races looked bad for Democrats even in August '16).

So, yeah, the Senate probably flips to GOP control yesterday regardless, but Clinton would have been able to nominate Garland (or somebody more liberal) to SCOTUS, and maybe Kennedy retires in '18 no matter who was President.

I think the outcome of those two SCOTUS seats might color which universe conservatives would prefer to live in: the one where they got two SCOTUS seats and a breathtaking number of appellate judges in the first two years, or one where they'd be looking at the possibility of unified control in two years, but with Clinton having been able to undo all of McConnell's efforts to stymie the appointment of moderate-to-liberal judges.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Trump is popular in states that will probably decide 2020 and R did better in OH, GA and FL than expected. I think that’s the big takeaway.

R did better in Georgia than expected? I don't know about that. I agree with the other 2.

I would say also that D did better than expected in TX, in governor's races and in House races in solid R districts.

I don't know that there was one big takeaway. There were lots of little, confusing ones.

[albionmoonlight]

dems basically got 70% of their christmas list to santa, and 20% of that 30% santa didn’t bring them was shit like “a flying bike” and “a tv that does my homework”

— Kilgore Trout (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 7, 2018

And yet from the Dems I am hearing like last night was a bloodbath. This was pretty much within expectations and still pretty great for the out party in a booming economy.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And if the 0.9% vote tally for the (L) forces voters in Georgia to endure 3 more weeks of campaign ads for a runoff, I'd advise the eliminated candidate to keep a low profile. He'll be about as popular as a dose of the clap.

After that debate, I'm shocked as many as that voted for Metz.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dems basically got 70% of their christmas list to santa, and 20% of that 30% santa didn’t bring them was shit like “a flying bike” and “a tv that does my homework”

— Kilgore Trout (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 7, 2018

And yet from the Dems I am hearing like last night was a bloodbath. This was pretty much within expectations and still pretty great for the out party in a booming economy.

I was fairly happy. We got the most important thing - control of the House. Yes, the blue wave didn't totally pan out as one might have hoped, but we have a solid check on Trump and his policies now.

[ISiddiqui]

It looks like there are going to be recounts in both statewide Florida races. Recounts and Florida, name a more iconic duo.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Anybody else have a candidate for weirdest ballot initiative?

Amendment 9: Florida’s referendum on vaping and offshore drilling - Vox



So we could either ban offshore drilling and vape devices or allow both.

I live in such a weird state.

Saw this from one of my Florida friends...

[molson]

We had one that wasn't weird on its face but was super-convoluted. Whether to permit historical horse racing in Idaho. You bet on a horse race that already happened, and then a video of the race plays - so it's just a gambling.

But, without the revenue from historical horse racing, regular horse racing can't exist in Idaho, apparently. Or at least, the horsetrack closed down once the historical racing was banned a few years ago.

The main force behind the ban was the the Native American tribes. They have generally exclusive rights to host gambling venues in the state so they come after any non-reservation gambling hard. Our Democrat gubernatorial candidate, a Native American woman, had some relationship with a tribal PAC that was seemingly behind to political push against historical racing. A bunch of her staff quit one day and sent these vague letters to the local newspaper about her relationship with the PAC - it was speculated that her long-shot campaign may have been all about pushing money and attention to tribal issues including this horseracing thing. Her campaign, which was getting some national attention at the time, kind of sputtered after that and she lost handily.

So where you stood on all that could have impacted your vote on that proposition, or, others just saw the measure as something that could bring more money to the state, something that would promote an immoral activity, or, something that was cruel to animals. So, the ads were all over the place. It failed

[GoldenCrest Games]

I'd never heard of historical horse racing, so I had to look this up.

Kind of feels like real-world betting on sports sims!

#in

[Thomkal]

I rejoice with the Wisconsonites on this board that the Walker nightmare is finally over and done it by his own recount law must be doubly delicious. Sadly this won't be the end of him because I'm sure he will be joining the Trump administration shortly.



And Dana Rohrbacker too-he hasn't conceded last I saw, but was behind. Unfortunately the likes of Devin Nunes and Steve King somehow still won, and it appears that ethics or even criminal charges (Duncan Hunter, Chris Carter, Menendez) against them are not nearly important enough in the minds of voters as they should be.



And Donald Trump is acting like he's not scared of the Dems taking the House in his usual bullying ways:


If the Democrats think they are going to waste Taxpayer Money investigating us at the House level, then we will likewise be forced to consider investigating them for all of the leaks of Classified Information, and much else, at the Senate level. Two can play that game!


He also this morning has come out in support of Pelosi for Speaker, and a NBC poll that shows there's now a larger number that disapprove of the Mueller investigation than approve.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

a NBC poll that shows there's now a larger number that disapprove of the Mueller investigation than approve.

It makes sense that people would lose enthusiasm for the Mueller investigation the longer it goes on without any more activity.

Though apparently Donald Jr. expects to be indicted soon

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dems basically got 70% of their christmas list to santa, and 20% of that 30% santa didn’t bring them was shit like “a flying bike” and “a tv that does my homework”

— Kilgore Trout (@KT_So_It_Goes) November 7, 2018

And yet from the Dems I am hearing like last night was a bloodbath. This was pretty much within expectations and still pretty great for the out party in a booming economy.

I sent that election contest Larry posted to some people in the liberal wing and every single one had Sinema, McCaskill, Heitkamp and O'Rourke winning and the Dems gaining control of the Senate. That outcome seemed extremely slim to me based off post Kavanaugh polling, and I think a couple knew they were going with their heart, but it seems that echo chamber convinced themselves a 51-49 Dem Senate was a likely scenario and not an absolute best case one.

[Thomkal]

Yep don't disagree with you there Molson.


Also there was a bit of blue wave here in SC-unexpectedly. Last I looked, the Republican candidate who beat Mark Sanford in the primary was comfortably ahead of the Democrat. This morning though it appears he has beaten her. Looks like I have to move to the district south of me if I want to get any Democratic power in the state.

[PilotMan]

I'll be honest, this press conference makes my blood boil.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I'm sure he will be joining the Trump administration shortly.

From your keyboard to God's ear. There isn't any figure I can think of that I've wanted to see in the cabinet from day one more than Walker.

Secretary of Labor would be my choice.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

This matters why? The Senate is all about the states having equal say. If the larger population states have their elections (and most of these large states tend to be Democrat strongholds), it is obviously going to skew that way. The smaller states, where the Democrats lost seats are in Republican strongholds.

Easy Senate solution is every state gets one Dem and one Republic Senator period! Also, the VP, Senate majority leader, the Easter Bunny etc breaking ties stops. That way we make ALL these assholes do their job and find ways to work together for all Americans well being.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Easy Senate solution is every state gets one Dem and one Republic Senator period!

How about "feel the Burn" folks?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

How about "feel the Burn" folks?

Yeah good point. But we have a two party system. I am not saying that is right but if we give every party representation we are not any better off. The Dems need to find a way to incorporate that far left side of the party as they need to with the more moderate side as well. I think the R's have done a better job of doing that with the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus though I am not sure they haven't submitted to those elements the party.
Regardless the Bernies peeps are free to run for the Dem seat. The platforms for the two parties is at this point we oppose the otherside and that really is it regardless of what they say they about it is all bullshit.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Galaril

That way we make ALL these assholes do their job and find ways to work together for all Americans well being.

That would require some agreement on the definition of "well being"

That's so scarce that legislation would be limited to a lukewarm endorsement of puppies & kittens (and I'm not at all sure that would pass either)

[Thomkal]

Tester has been declared the winner in MT much to my surprise.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

From your keyboard to God's ear. There isn't any figure I can think of that I've wanted to see in the cabinet from day one more than Walker.

Secretary of Labor would be my choice.

No I'm sure no one would have a problem with that Jon

[JonInMiddleGA]

On a much more local side note, I don't think I've ever known an eventual state representative before they had a driver's license ... but I do now.

Those of you who remember/followed my adventure's with my son's high school sports webcast crew have known about this young man for a long while now. The super-talented play-by-play kid on that crew is now State Representative-Elect from GA-117.

I'm pretty sure this cements my status as being dead-old.

[larrymcg421]

Apparently, Bill Nelson has not yet conceded and NYT has still not called the race. The margin is down to 30,000 votes.