2018 Election Contest

larrymcg421 · 11-01-2018, 02:46 PM

These are usually fun. Simple rules. Pick each of the following races. Entries are due by 11/3 at 11:59pm EST. For each race, I listed the incumbent party first.

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: McSally (R) or Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D) or Scott (R)
IN: Donnelly (D) or Braun (R)
MI: Stabenow (D) or James (R)
MO: McCaskill (D) or Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D) or Rosendale (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) or Cramer (R)
NV: Heller (R) or Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D) or Renacci (R)
TN: Blackburn (R) or Bredesen (D)
TX: Cruz (R) or O'Rourke (D)
WV: Manchin (D) or Morrisey (R)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R) or Begich (D)
CT: Lamont (D) or Stefanonwski (R)
FL: Desantis (R) or Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R) or Abrams (D)
KS: Kobach (R) or Kelly (D)
NV: Laxalt (R) or Sisolak (D)
OH: Dewine (R) or Cordray (D)
WI: Walker (R) or Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)

Chief Rum · 11-01-2018, 02:59 PM

Are these all well-contested seats only in the Senate and governor's races, or all of them? If it's the latter, CA is also electing a new governor.

As a Californian, I'm fine with either candidate, so long as it's not Jerry Brown anymore.

larrymcg421 · 11-01-2018, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Are these all well-contested seats only in the Senate and governor's races, or all of them? If it's the latter, CA is also electing a new governor.

As a Californian, I'm fine with either candidate, so long as it's not Jerry Brown anymore.

I picked the closest/most notable races. Newsom is going to win CA by double digits.

Chief Rum · 11-01-2018, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I picked the closest/most notable races. Newsom is going to win CA by double digits.

True on Newsom.

Makes sense. What's the fun in picking gimmes? I'll give it a shot.

larrymcg421 · 11-01-2018, 04:56 PM

My picks...

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off): +45

Racer · 11-01-2018, 07:05 PM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: O'Rourke (D)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Abrams (D)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Dewine (R)
WI: Evers (D)

House: Democrats +43 seats

tarcone · 11-01-2018, 09:06 PM

AZ: McSally (R)
FL: Scott (R)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Rosendale (R)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Morrisey (R)

AK:Begich (D)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Desantis (R)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Dewine (R)
WI: Walker (R)

+ 15 for the dems

Marc Vaughan · 11-01-2018, 10:07 PM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: McSally (R)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Braun (R)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Rosendale (R)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: O'Rourke (D)
WV: Morrisey (R)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Walker (R)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)
How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)
+25

Butter · 11-02-2018, 06:27 AM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Heller (R)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: O'Rourke (D)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

Dems +30

Thomkal · 11-02-2018, 09:41 AM

These are mostly wishful thinking from me rather than studied intelligent thought, but here goes:

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Rosendale (R)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: O'Rourke (D)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Abrams (D)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)

Dems +33

I'm okay if I'm wrong on all the rest if I get these three correct-Cruz, Kobach, and Walker all lose.

Thanks for running this contest

larrymcg421 · 11-05-2018, 02:34 PM

bumping this

Ballots due by midnight.

JPhillips · 11-05-2018, 02:45 PM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Braun (R)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Bredesen (D)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Begich (D)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

Dems +30

path12 · 11-05-2018, 05:13 PM

What the hell:

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R) -- but runoff in December
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Laxalt (R)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) Dems +39 seats

BishopMVP · 11-05-2018, 06:17 PM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: McSally (R)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Heller (R)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)

How many seats will Dems gain?+27

Thanks for doing this, should be fun.

Ryche · 11-05-2018, 07:47 PM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: McSally (R)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Braun (R)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: O'Rourke (D)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)
AK: Begich (D)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) 33

digamma · 11-06-2018, 10:34 AM

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Begich (D)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: RUN OFF, then Kemp (R)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Walker (R)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)
+32
How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)

larrymcg421 · 11-06-2018, 01:34 PM

FiveThirtyEight's Predictions

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Gillum (D)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kobach (R)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Evers (D)

House: +36

bhlloy · 11-06-2018, 04:08 PM

Not sure if you are still taking these, but for posterity:

Senate (3 pts each)

AZ: Sinema (D)
FL: Nelson (D)
IN: Donnelly (D)
MI: Stabenow (D)
MO: Hawley (R)
MT: Tester (D)
ND: Cramer (R)
NV: Rosen (D)
OH: Brown (D)
TN: Blackburn (R)
TX: Cruz (R)
WV: Manchin (D)

Gov (3 pts each)

AK: Dunleavy (R)
CT: Lamont (D)
FL: Desantis (R)
GA: Kemp (R)
KS: Kelly (D)
NV: Sisolak (D)
OH: Cordray (D)
WI: Walker (R)

House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off)
D +27

Toddzilla · 11-06-2018, 07:46 PM

FWIW it's not looking good for a blue wave...

larrymcg421 · 11-07-2018, 02:27 AM

Here's the current leaderboard. This doesn't include the AZ or MT senate races or the final House tally. I am counting Kemp for GA for now...

bhlloy: 42 (Sinema, Tester, +27)
tarcone: 39 (McSally, Rosendale, +15)
BishopMVP: 39 (McSally, Tester, +27)
Ryche: 36 (McSally, Tester, +33)
digamma: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +32)
FiveThirtyEight: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +36)
Racer: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +43)
path12: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +39)
larrymcg421: 33 (Sinema, Tester, +45)
Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, Rosendale, +25)
Butter: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30)
Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, Rosendale, +33)
JPhillips: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30)

FWIW, it looks like Tester and McSally will win.

Thomkal · 11-07-2018, 11:28 AM

oof, don't call on me to be a predictor of elections...

larrymcg421 · 11-07-2018, 12:38 PM

MT has been called for Tester. Updated standings...

bhlloy: 45 (Sinema, +27)
BishopMVP: 42 (McSally, +27)
tarcone: 39 (McSally, +15)
Ryche: 39 (McSally, +33)
digamma: 39 (Sinema, +32)
FiveThirtyEight: 39 (Sinema, +36)
Racer: 39 (Sinema, +43)
path12: 39 (Sinema, +39)
larrymcg421: 36 (Sinema, +45)
Butter: 33 (Sinema, +30)
JPhillips: 33 (Sinema, +30)
Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, +33)
Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, +25)

It looks like McSally will win, but it's not certain yet. Still lots of voted to be counted. For the House, Dems have gained 27 so far with 19 left to be called.

Thomkal · 11-07-2018, 12:41 PM

I think Sinema is still in with a chance. It looked like most of the R strongholds in the state have reported in with a few D strongholds still being counted.

digamma · 11-07-2018, 01:03 PM

Gonna be hard to top Ryche, assuming McSally holds.

larrymcg421 · 11-07-2018, 01:35 PM

Yeah I think Ryche likely wins if McSally wins. If Sinema wins, it's more interesting, but FiveThirtyEight would be the favorite. If we don't count them, then it's between bhlloy and path 12 and could come down to a single district.

larrymcg421 · 11-08-2018, 01:34 PM

Apparently, 18% of the votes in AZ still haven't been counted, so Sinema still has a shot.

Meanwhile, Nelson is now within 24,000 in FL and there's some weirdness going on in Broward County. Both him and Gillum are in automatic recount territory.

Right now it looks like Dems will gain around 37 seats.

tarcone · 11-08-2018, 03:14 PM

I picked this before the last couple days. Should have chosen Hawley. Thought healthcare would have been a bigger issue.

Rural Missouri got whipped to a frenzy by that Trump visit.

Ryche · 11-08-2018, 07:39 PM

I'm good with not winning this.

path12 · 11-09-2018, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryche

I'm good with not winning this.

But you could parlay it into a punditry gig!

BYU 14 · 11-09-2018, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Apparently, 18% of the votes in AZ still haven't been counted, so Sinema still has a shot.

Meanwhile, Nelson is now within 24,000 in FL and there's some weirdness going on in Broward County. Both him and Gillum are in automatic recount territory.

Right now it looks like Dems will gain around 37 seats.

Sinema now up about 8,200 votes with Maricopa County set to report updated numbers at 5:00 local time.

Which of course triggered this
https://www.newsweek.com/arizona-sen...-trump-1210068

BYU 14 · 11-09-2018, 06:01 PM

Sinema up by over 21,000 now

larrymcg421 · 11-12-2018, 09:56 AM

I'm calling it for Sinema. Here are the updated standings based on the current house margin of 34 pickups. There are still 10 uncalled races.

bhlloy: 41 (+27)
digamma: 40 (+32)
FiveThirtyEight: 40 (+36)
Ryche: 38 (+33)
path12: 37 (+39)
BishopMVP: 35 (+27)
Racer: 33 (+43)
Butter: 32 (+30)
JPhillips: 32 (+30)
Thomkal: 32 (+33)
larrymcg421: 28 (+45)
tarcone: 20 (+15)
Marc Vaughan: 21 (+25)

With 10 races remaining, here are the winning scenarios

Dems win 0-1: bhlloy wins
Dems win 2: bhlloy and path12 tie
Dems win 3-6: path12 wins
Dems win 7: path12 and racer tie
Dems win 8-10: racer wins

I didn't count FiveThirtyEight in those scenarios, but they would win if Dems pick up 1-3.

Below are the remaining races:

CA-10: Dem leads
CA-39: GOP leads
CA-45: GOP leads
GA-7: GOP leads (extremely narrow 890 votes)
ME-2: GOP leads (but will go to ranked choice runoff, likely to favor the Dem)
NJ-3: Dem leads
NY-22: Dem leads
NY-27: GOP leads
TX-23: GOP leads
UT-4: Dem leads

Thomkal · 11-12-2018, 01:25 PM

Hey I'm not in last anymore

larrymcg421 · 11-12-2018, 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Hey I'm not in last anymore

And you're guaranteed to stay ahead of tarcone and Marc.

Thomkal · 11-12-2018, 08:04 PM

McSally concedes to Sinema. No doubt angering the RNC and Trump who wanted her to push their voter fraud conspiracies.

larrymcg421 · 11-19-2018, 03:35 PM

Currently, there are 38 House pickups with 4 races to be called...

CA-21: This one came out of nowhere. The GOP incumbent Valadao was way ahead on election night and the race was called. But the absentee ballots have broken for the Dem challenger so strongly that now it's a tossup who wins.

UT-4: Still counting absentees and provisionals. McAdams (D) led since election night and Love (R) recently took a small lead. Could go either way as there are still ballots to count from Salt Lake County.

GA-7: Very close race as incumbent Woodall (R) holds a narrow 420 vote lead. However, all ballots have been counted, so the only hope for a reversal is in a recount, which seems unlikely.

NY-27: Still waiting on absentee ballots, but it's likely that the incumbent (R) Collins holds on.

If the Dems win 0, 1, or 2 of these 4, then path 12 wins outright.

If the Dems win 3 of these 4, then path 12 and racer tie.

If the Dems sweep all 4, then racer wins outright.

path12 · 11-20-2018, 05:01 PM

*waiting on calls from CNN, MSNBC, etc for that all important middle age white guy punditry*

larrymcg421 · 11-20-2018, 05:31 PM

UT-4 is all but called for McAdams. No votes left and it's outside the recount margin.

JPhillips · 11-20-2018, 06:32 PM

NY-27 seems in the same place, with Collins ahead.

larrymcg421 · 11-21-2018, 05:40 PM

Recount complete in GA-7 and Woodall held on as expected. With Collins also holding on, that means path 12 is our official winner. CA-21 is still counting and it seems like Cox is going to pull ahead of Valadao, despite many networks still having this as a called race. In the final standings below, I counted the results for a Cox victory since it doesn't matter for the winner, but will change it if it breaks the other way...

path12: 41
Racer: 39
FiveThirtyEight: 38
bhlloy: 35
digamma: 34
larrymcg421: 34
Ryche: 32
BishopMVP: 29
Butter: 26
JPhillips: 26
Thomkal: 26
Marc Vaughan: 15
tarcone: 14

larrymcg421 · 11-21-2018, 06:06 PM

And here's how we did predicting the various winners...

Code:

Lamont	100.00%
Stabenow	100.00%
Cramer	100.00%
Brown	100.00%
Blackburn 	92.31%
Kemp	84.62%
Rosen	84.62%
Manchin	84.62%
Tester	76.92%
Dunleavy	69.23%
Sinema	69.23%
Evers	69.23%
Cruz	61.54%
Sisolak	53.85%
Kelly	46.15%
Hawley	46.15%
Braun	23.08%
Desantis	15.38%
Dewine	15.38%
Scott	7.69%

Average house prediction was +31.9 seats.

11-01-2018, 02:59 PM	#2
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Are these all well-contested seats only in the Senate and governor's races, or all of them? If it's the latter, CA is also electing a new governor. As a Californian, I'm fine with either candidate, so long as it's not Jerry Brown anymore. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

11-01-2018, 04:56 PM	#5
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	My picks... Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off): +45 __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-01-2018, 09:06 PM	#7
tarcone Coordinator Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Pacific	AZ: McSally (R) FL: Scott (R) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Morrisey (R) AK:Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Desantis (R) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Dewine (R) WI: Walker (R) + 15 for the dems __________________ Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15

11-01-2018, 10:07 PM	#8
Marc Vaughan SI Games Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Melbourne, FL	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Morrisey (R) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) +25 Last edited by Marc Vaughan : 11-01-2018 at 10:08 PM.

11-02-2018, 06:27 AM	#9
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Heller (R) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) Dems +30 __________________ My listening habits

11-01-2018, 07:05 PM	#6
Racer College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Abrams (D) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Dewine (R) WI: Evers (D) House: Democrats +43 seats

11-02-2018, 09:41 AM	#10
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	These are mostly wishful thinking from me rather than studied intelligent thought, but here goes: Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Rosendale (R) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Abrams (D) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) Dems +33 I'm okay if I'm wrong on all the rest if I get these three correct-Cruz, Kobach, and Walker all lose. Thanks for running this contest __________________ Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!

11-05-2018, 02:34 PM	#11
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	bumping this Ballots due by midnight. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-05-2018, 02:45 PM	#12
JPhillips General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Bredesen (D) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) Dems +30 __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-05-2018, 05:13 PM	#13
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	What the hell: Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) -- but runoff in December KS: Kobach (R) NV: Laxalt (R) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.) Dems +39 seats __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

11-05-2018, 06:17 PM	#14
BishopMVP Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Concord, MA/UMass	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Heller (R) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) How many seats will Dems gain?+27 Thanks for doing this, should be fun.

11-05-2018, 07:47 PM	#15
Ryche College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: McSally (R) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Braun (R) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: O'Rourke (D) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) 33 __________________ Some knots are better left untied.

11-06-2018, 10:34 AM	#16
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Begich (D) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: RUN OFF, then Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) +32 How many seats will Dems gain? (Put negative if you think GOP will gain.)

11-06-2018, 01:34 PM	#17
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	FiveThirtyEight's Predictions Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: McCaskill (D) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Gillum (D) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kobach (R) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Evers (D) House: +36 __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-06-2018, 04:08 PM	#18
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Not sure if you are still taking these, but for posterity: Senate (3 pts each) AZ: Sinema (D) FL: Nelson (D) IN: Donnelly (D) MI: Stabenow (D) MO: Hawley (R) MT: Tester (D) ND: Cramer (R) NV: Rosen (D) OH: Brown (D) TN: Blackburn (R) TX: Cruz (R) WV: Manchin (D) Gov (3 pts each) AK: Dunleavy (R) CT: Lamont (D) FL: Desantis (R) GA: Kemp (R) KS: Kelly (D) NV: Sisolak (D) OH: Cordray (D) WI: Walker (R) House (lose 1 pt for each seat you are off) D +27

11-06-2018, 07:46 PM	#19
Toddzilla Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Burke, VA	FWIW it's not looking good for a blue wave...

11-07-2018, 02:27 AM	#20
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Here's the current leaderboard. This doesn't include the AZ or MT senate races or the final House tally. I am counting Kemp for GA for now... bhlloy: 42 (Sinema, Tester, +27) tarcone: 39 (McSally, Rosendale, +15) BishopMVP: 39 (McSally, Tester, +27) Ryche: 36 (McSally, Tester, +33) digamma: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +32) FiveThirtyEight: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +36) Racer: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +43) path12: 36 (Sinema, Tester, +39) larrymcg421: 33 (Sinema, Tester, +45) Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, Rosendale, +25) Butter: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30) Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, Rosendale, +33) JPhillips: 30 (Sinema, Tester, +30) FWIW, it looks like Tester and McSally will win. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-07-2018, 11:28 AM	#21
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	oof, don't call on me to be a predictor of elections... __________________ Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!

11-07-2018, 12:38 PM	#22
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	MT has been called for Tester. Updated standings... bhlloy: 45 (Sinema, +27) BishopMVP: 42 (McSally, +27) tarcone: 39 (McSally, +15) Ryche: 39 (McSally, +33) digamma: 39 (Sinema, +32) FiveThirtyEight: 39 (Sinema, +36) Racer: 39 (Sinema, +43) path12: 39 (Sinema, +39) larrymcg421: 36 (Sinema, +45) Butter: 33 (Sinema, +30) JPhillips: 33 (Sinema, +30) Thomkal: 30 (Sinema, +33) Marc Vaughan: 30 (McSally, +25) It looks like McSally will win, but it's not certain yet. Still lots of voted to be counted. For the House, Dems have gained 27 so far with 19 left to be called. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-07-2018, 12:41 PM	#23
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	I think Sinema is still in with a chance. It looked like most of the R strongholds in the state have reported in with a few D strongholds still being counted. __________________ Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!

11-07-2018, 01:03 PM	#24
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	Gonna be hard to top Ryche, assuming McSally holds.

11-07-2018, 01:35 PM	#25
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Yeah I think Ryche likely wins if McSally wins. If Sinema wins, it's more interesting, but FiveThirtyEight would be the favorite. If we don't count them, then it's between bhlloy and path 12 and could come down to a single district. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-08-2018, 01:34 PM	#26
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Apparently, 18% of the votes in AZ still haven't been counted, so Sinema still has a shot. Meanwhile, Nelson is now within 24,000 in FL and there's some weirdness going on in Broward County. Both him and Gillum are in automatic recount territory. Right now it looks like Dems will gain around 37 seats. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-08-2018, 03:14 PM	#27
tarcone Coordinator Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Pacific	I picked this before the last couple days. Should have chosen Hawley. Thought healthcare would have been a bigger issue. Rural Missouri got whipped to a frenzy by that Trump visit. __________________ Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15

11-08-2018, 07:39 PM	#28
Ryche College Benchwarmer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Highlands Ranch, CO, USA	I'm good with not winning this. __________________ Some knots are better left untied.

11-09-2018, 06:01 PM	#31
BYU 14 Coordinator Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: The scorched Desert	Sinema up by over 21,000 now

11-12-2018, 09:56 AM	#32
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	I'm calling it for Sinema. Here are the updated standings based on the current house margin of 34 pickups. There are still 10 uncalled races. bhlloy: 41 (+27) digamma: 40 (+32) FiveThirtyEight: 40 (+36) Ryche: 38 (+33) path12: 37 (+39) BishopMVP: 35 (+27) Racer: 33 (+43) Butter: 32 (+30) JPhillips: 32 (+30) Thomkal: 32 (+33) larrymcg421: 28 (+45) tarcone: 20 (+15) Marc Vaughan: 21 (+25) With 10 races remaining, here are the winning scenarios Dems win 0-1: bhlloy wins Dems win 2: bhlloy and path12 tie Dems win 3-6: path12 wins Dems win 7: path12 and racer tie Dems win 8-10: racer wins I didn't count FiveThirtyEight in those scenarios, but they would win if Dems pick up 1-3. Below are the remaining races: CA-10: Dem leads CA-39: GOP leads CA-45: GOP leads GA-7: GOP leads (extremely narrow 890 votes) ME-2: GOP leads (but will go to ranked choice runoff, likely to favor the Dem) NJ-3: Dem leads NY-22: Dem leads NY-27: GOP leads TX-23: GOP leads UT-4: Dem leads __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner Last edited by larrymcg421 : 11-12-2018 at 03:24 PM.

11-12-2018, 01:25 PM	#33
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	Hey I'm not in last anymore __________________ Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!

11-12-2018, 08:04 PM	#35
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	McSally concedes to Sinema. No doubt angering the RNC and Trump who wanted her to push their voter fraud conspiracies. __________________ Coastal Carolina Baseball-2016 National Champion! 10/17/20-Coastal Football ranked in Top 25 for first time!

11-19-2018, 03:35 PM	#36
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Currently, there are 38 House pickups with 4 races to be called... CA-21: This one came out of nowhere. The GOP incumbent Valadao was way ahead on election night and the race was called. But the absentee ballots have broken for the Dem challenger so strongly that now it's a tossup who wins. UT-4: Still counting absentees and provisionals. McAdams (D) led since election night and Love (R) recently took a small lead. Could go either way as there are still ballots to count from Salt Lake County. GA-7: Very close race as incumbent Woodall (R) holds a narrow 420 vote lead. However, all ballots have been counted, so the only hope for a reversal is in a recount, which seems unlikely. NY-27: Still waiting on absentee ballots, but it's likely that the incumbent (R) Collins holds on. If the Dems win 0, 1, or 2 of these 4, then path 12 wins outright. If the Dems win 3 of these 4, then path 12 and racer tie. If the Dems sweep all 4, then racer wins outright. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-20-2018, 05:01 PM	#37
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	waiting on calls from CNN, MSNBC, etc for that all important middle age white guy punditry __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia. Last edited by path12 : 11-20-2018 at 05:02 PM.

11-20-2018, 05:31 PM	#38
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	UT-4 is all but called for McAdams. No votes left and it's outside the recount margin. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-20-2018, 06:32 PM	#39
JPhillips General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Newburgh, NY	NY-27 seems in the same place, with Collins ahead. __________________ To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers

11-21-2018, 05:40 PM	#40
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	Recount complete in GA-7 and Woodall held on as expected. With Collins also holding on, that means path 12 is our official winner. CA-21 is still counting and it seems like Cox is going to pull ahead of Valadao, despite many networks still having this as a called race. In the final standings below, I counted the results for a Cox victory since it doesn't matter for the winner, but will change it if it breaks the other way... path12: 41 Racer: 39 FiveThirtyEight: 38 bhlloy: 35 digamma: 34 larrymcg421: 34 Ryche: 32 BishopMVP: 29 Butter: 26 JPhillips: 26 Thomkal: 26 Marc Vaughan: 15 tarcone: 14 __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner

11-21-2018, 06:06 PM	#41
larrymcg421 Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Georgia	And here's how we did predicting the various winners... Code: Lamont 100.00% Stabenow 100.00% Cramer 100.00% Brown 100.00% Blackburn 92.31% Kemp 84.62% Rosen 84.62% Manchin 84.62% Tester 76.92% Dunleavy 69.23% Sinema 69.23% Evers 69.23% Cruz 61.54% Sisolak 53.85% Kelly 46.15% Hawley 46.15% Braun 23.08% Desantis 15.38% Dewine 15.38% Scott 7.69% Average house prediction was +31.9 seats. __________________ Top 10 Songs of the Year 1955-Present (1976 Added) Franchise Portfolio Draft Winner Fictional Character Draft Winner Television Family Draft Winner Build Your Own Hollywood Studio Draft Winner Last edited by larrymcg421 : 11-21-2018 at 06:08 PM.