Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

With the Washington team, I will confess... my file for the all-important regular season stage was a MESS. I genuinely didn't even assign a starting QB, I put in an offer on a free agent, left the starting job unassigned, and wasn't even sure whether the good-fit free agent or the oh-noes-a-conflict guy would take the reins. But given some of the other changes I had made (cutting a monster-looking RB to convert him to into a pedestrian WR2, most notably), I just felt like this season would be a throwaway, regardless. We're definitely a couple seasons away from competing for a division title, or anything like that.

I also apparently messed up my playbook for the season, and had to go with some sort of oddball default gameplan for the year, so I wasn't able to target my passing game the way I prefer. Small thing for a lost year, but unnerving.

So, naturally...

GML: Washington Redskins 2118

Turns out an inexplicable 9-7 is good enough to earn us a home game in the wild card round. Go figure. What happened here?

QB Perkins is pick-prone by effective with over 7 ypa, we'll take that
We ran the ball a lot, I don't see why on earth we'd do that, yuck
WR Damon Malone reminds me how much it matters to have a stud WR, 10 ypt
This pass attack was actually pretty solid overall, esp with deadweight TEs
The pass rush was healthier than I expected, for some reason
Our cobbled-together LB corps was also solid, for some reason
Work to do ahead at DB, with overhaul coming, but progress there

I have trouble seeing this as a winning team if we simmed the season 100 times, but we'll collect our division trophy, get our asses kicked against the big boys, and start building in the direction we want. Okay, then.

[QuikSand]

Fixin' to do a State of the Ravens rundown in the next day or so. Without a QB plan, it seems dumb to do a set-the-arrival-date plan, but... maybe we have our Salvador after all? We can do ok with a "good enough" QB, whose main flaw is throwing 6 more picks than we'd prefer. (And with our commitment to the bad chemistry group, we might not ever do a lot better)

[Chas in Cinti]

Curiously, do you often see top of the 1st round talent in your target group for affinity and simply can't find a way to obtain them? Or is it that this target group is just entirely this scarce? Or is it that you have to stick to certain leadership/personality traits that seriously shrink your options even further?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti

Curiously, do you often see top of the 1st round talent in your target group for affinity and simply can't find a way to obtain them? Or is it that this target group is just entirely this scarce? Or is it that you have to stick to certain leadership/personality traits that seriously shrink your options even further?

Definitely see them, and sometimes write them off as unobtainable. I have made two big trade-up deals to get high in the draft for WRs (neither of whom really panned out ideally) but Stocz was definitely that situation - best chem-fit WR out there, he wasn't going to fall to my pick at twenty-whatever, so I overpaid to move up to someone unexcited b pick 1(2) and got him there. Happens a lot, I typically don't even waste an interview on guys I figure have no shot to fall to my first pick.

[QuikSand]

Oh... incidentally, Pittsburgh had an off year and finished 6-10, so our 1st rounder next year through them will be in the 5-6-7-8 range. So, with that pick and then our own in the middle somewhere, we ought to be able to either move the needle at two positions, or potentially make a big move up to target one of those bullseye type guys. Would really love a 2-3 QB for this team, or a true WR1 we could build around.

[QuikSand]

BALTIMORE - WHERE ARE WE?

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Levine, Salvador        105 QB    QB    6    45               45               5 yrs. 
##Wolf, Ivan            107 QB          7    36               36               1 yr.  
Justin, Evan            115 QB          1    14               28               4 yrs. 
##Walsh, Amir           120 QB          2    13               31               2 yrs. 

I don't fuckin know. I guess the bottom line here is that we have "a guy" on hand in Levine. He appeals to the Pikesville crowd outside Baltimore, along with Schweigert and Lentzner, maybe a couple others. Weird demographic for the gridiron, though.

The roster just BEGS for a good fit QB to step in and be "the guy," though. I will hope for that in the draft, but lacking that, I guess it's okay to have a semi-affordable fall-back. Evan Justin is probably a long term QB2, high chemistry and after this season he will click. (that's code)

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Bush, Edwin             230 RB    RB    4    53               53               3 yrs. 
Schweigert, Bernie      222 RB          4    48               48               3 yrs. 
Schroeder, Charles      340 FB          6    30               30               2 yrs. 

Well, we have our plan in place at RB1 and RB2, both of these guys delivered nicely this season, and I think should have a mode credible OL to run behind over time. T Shepherd is just fantastic at LT, and with Glode locked in as a run blocking force at C, the rest ought to be pretty easy. We'll give it time, and who knows, maybe some draft investment (I hope not).

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Ogden, Leon             448 TE    TE    2    56               56               3 yrs. 
Money, Vinny            446 TE          2    37               41               1 yr.  
Terrell, Devan          482 TE          7    31               31               1 yr.  
Polley, Wade            441 TE          1    30               33               2 yrs. 
Austin, Ronald          484 TE    FB    8    26               26               1 yr.  

Tough group to sort out. We're pushing the ball to Ogden, he's okay but nothing special. This, too, could be a target in the draft if we don't get a perfect fit elsewhere. Had hoped Ogden would be that guy, but he looks more solid than spectacular. Money is my specialty - a mixed-skill guy who actually had ratings where I want them. So, should I split off half of Ogden's targets and shift them to Money? Maybe.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Franz, Brad             517 FL    FL    10   48               48               1 yr.  
Woods, B.J.             583 FL    SE    3    45               45               1 yr.  
##Baglien, Lorenzo      580 FL          6    43               43               3 yrs. 
Holtz, Rex              518 FL          8    41               41               1 yr.  
##Ledoux, Andre         587 FL          5    41               41               2 yrs. 
Stocz, Lonnie           512 SE          5    50               50               3 yrs. 
Bridges, Buddy          585 SE          1    24               34               4 yrs. 

So, we have just plugged in Franz and Stocz as WR1/WR2. They're fine, but nothing great on paper. Franz posted a fairly big year, and he's a big cohesion asset now, but no longer a chem match, assuming we remain with a 6-7 leader (likely). BJ Woods put up 7 ypt again, fine, Holtz a click lower, meh. Bridges looms, but he might just be a punt returner - how much can you make out of one bar (getting downfield)? We might find out, as the utter lack of a youth movement here is deeply distressing.

WR is a top target for this team in the draft, even if we have to reach from pick 7 - and potentially a "just BWRA" and skip affinities.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Glode, J.R.             670 C     C     4    73               73               4 yrs. 
Fattel, Jackie          765 LG    LG    3    28               42               3 yrs. 
Tompkins, Heath         775 RG          7    54               54               2 yrs. 
Shepherd, Tyrus         863 LT    LT    8    81               81               4 yrs. 
O'Donnell, Miguel       861 LT    RT    3    75               75               2 yrs. 
Clements, Nate          874 LT          5    55               55               3 yrs. 
Odom, Arnold            860 LT    RG    4    45               53               2 yrs. 
##Jennings, Caiden      878 RT          2    27               36               1 yr.  

First, chemistry. T Shepherd is that bad combo of high leadership, low-ish personality - so he's our leader but at 42. Yuck. T Jennings is the lady in waiting but it will take probably 3 more seasons for him to step into the lead role (93/98, worth the wait). Smart move here is probably to grab a couple max-personality backups from the 2-3 group, who'd click with both, and just sit on 'em.

Talent-wise, the line of the short term is Shepherd-Clements-Glode-Odom-O'Donnell, as we'd play tackles in both guard slots. Moving backups around sounds necessary... hmm, wonder if there's a baloney special teams arbitrage play here, knowing my "guards" get assigned ST duty like it or not. Maybe a high ST rated TE, slot him at G, keep him off the starting lineup, and let him crush it with the punt team. Meh.

If a high quality guy comes along, we are open to investing here.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Frederick, Edwin        904 P           10   47               47               2 yrs. 
Thomas, Mario           1003K           4    85               85               4 yrs. 

Yes, I am spending freal money on my kicker, newly extended. Sunk cost fallacy. Perhaps I'll regret it, for lack of funds to expend on a star free agent, but right now we were $70m under the cap, after tossing $42m after a camp arm QB who happened to get the gig. We can swing $15m/yr for a near-stud kicker. Those kick return numbers do look sweet, can't be totally unconnected. Maybe a beastly punter this year, if cap space allows it.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Woods, Lorenzo          1159LDE         5    52               52               3 yrs. 
Anthony, Ethan          1198LDE   RDE   9    47               47               1 yr.  
Baxter, Gilbert         1179LDE         7    17               17               2 yrs. 
Helming, Juan           1194RDE   LDE   3    72               72               2 yrs. 
Scott, Justics          1292NT    NT    6    51               51               2 yrs. 
Schneider, Gavin        1297NT          5    37               37               1 yr.  

This is simply not good enough. Helming is really good, but he's a pure 3-4 DE, I want my guys to rush the passer, scheme be damned. What else do we have of real value? Little. Baxter is the chem anchor, but both of our ear-pinners are all but gone - we shifted Schneider to DT after a rotten preseason fade, and my longtime one trick pass rusher Mealey got cut after fading to nothingness.

I'd hate to feel pressed to use a 1st round pick here - just not the "value" but it's possible.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Givens, Dana            1352SILB        4    38               42               2 yrs. 
Schenk, Rich            1356WILB  SILB  2    58               58               2 yrs. 
Roybal, Giovanni        1350WILB  WILB  4    36               36               2 yrs. 
##Wilkerson, Shane      1345WILB        6    10               10               1 yr.  
Thomas, Burt            1447SLB   WLB   1    45               45               2 yrs. 
Peterson, Edgar         1451SLB   SLB   6    42               42               1 yr.  
Thill, Moe              1457WLB         1    37               37               4 yrs. 

Not awful? I guess that's right. Big surprise is afterthought pickup Schenk who boomed in preseason, moved off the bubble and right into the job as our top run stopper, and pinned up 107 tackles behind a 100-rated RunD number. So, suddenly he's very much in the mix. Peterson is up for a new deal, I don't exactly know what to do with a coverage-first LB but we try to use him appropriately. Givens needs to get into the pass rushing rotation, he will next year barring a big personnel move. Thomas was an undrafted rookie - yet again I get something out of the 8th round, he's good enough to keep playing. Adding a stud at LB would be nice, I'd love to have a Serious Sam, but more likely we continue to putter with this properly assigned a low-ish priority.

   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Lentzner, Kody          1538LCB         6    70               70               3 yrs. 
Maas, Josue             1524LCB   LCB   6    70               70               4 yrs. 
Dawson, Gus             1537LCB         5    32               32               2 yrs. 
Calmus, Collin          1539RCB   RCB   5    53               53               4 yrs. 
Wiggins, Les            1526RCB         2    49               49               3 yrs. 
Vaughn, Shawn           1506RCB         3    29               29               1 yr.  
##Patterson, Mitchell   1536RCB         2    20               33               3 yrs. 
McCormick, Kendrick     1633SS    SS    6    47               47               2 yrs. 
Conners, Jake           1629FS    FS    5    44               44               4 yrs. 
Padilla, Dustin         1625FS          3    44               44               1 yr.  
Tamburrino, Toby        669 LS          8    17               17               2 yrs. 

Okay, now our pride and joy. I didn't play Lentzner enough this year but that will change, he'll rotate in at NB/FS. Mass is lowish endurance, but when he plays, he's money - 84.8 PD% this year now that he's in the right role. Calmus is a solid CB2/NB and had 6 picks in limited action. Wiggins is a luxury, good enough to play anywhere. The three safeties are all okay, good enough to rotate and play, no standouts. this should be our best position group by talent and chemistry for a long while.



So... no real shock where my mind is:

Passing game talent - QB, WR
...
...
Top tier TE talent
Pass rush
...
OL talent
...
LB talent
ST standouts
...
depth everywhere who will stick and click

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti

Or is it that you have to stick to certain leadership/personality traits that seriously shrink your options even further?

If I am playing a team hardcore chemistry, which is honestly the most enjoyable way for me, then yes - that's exactly the right way to phrase it. It just shrinks my options. Once I have my leaders in place, when I go out to scour for free agents, I do searches and only even kick the tires on the guys who show up as affinities, and in some cases, affinities strong enough to invest in. So that means 5 out of 6 players don't even make my radar screen.

Same thing goes for the draft. In general, my first activity with a draft is to open up the online drafting Conscriptor, and go through the top 200 or so players overall, and just click on all the affinity matches - that creates a naive, unsorted, priority list for me to work from. Guys not on that list (again, 5/6 of the draft pool) just don't get my attention as I consider that draft. Then my work from there will be from the priority list, looking over the guys on that sort (maybe 30-40 players) and deciding how to rank them and who might be worth a move up, or whatnot.

I'll make exceptions. If my BAL pick at 1.6 comes up and I just don't like my options at all, I might just go BPA - take a much-needed WR, for example. But my plan going in will be to look pretty closely at the chemistry fits. I just derive too much joy from the "collecting" facets of the game.

But the payoff is something like my current secondary. Now that Dawson has taken over his rightful perch atop the throne, my DB group reads like this in the Chemistry column: Exceptional Affinity, Exceptional Affinity, Strong Affinity, Position leader, (no chemistry - PR Vaughn), Exceptional Affinity, Exceptional Affinity, Exceptional Affinity, Exceptional Affinity, Exceptional Affinity. Whatever voodoo is behind this in-game setup, I am wringing every damned ounce of it here, and it mostly cost us just a couple pocket lint draft picks and some cap space (which I needed to spend anyway to gain legitimate talent). I'm fixin' to land in a similar place with my D7 in time.

[QuikSand]

Season rollover is done. Only retirement loss is OL Tompkins. He might have gotten his starting job back this year, oddly enough, but that's under the bridge now. Investing twice in a low-personality, run-blocking tackle was never wise.

I can see the free agent market, and I'll just say - if I'm going to make an impactful move there, it will require either (1) ignoring chemistry to get an impact player, and/or (2) going all art-of-war and stacking at an already strong position. I have cap room to make moves, not sure I have the will do push in and declare that *this* is the thing I'm doing with my foreseeable cap space, if you follow.

Eagerly awaiting a draft full of pitch-and-catch wunderkinds. We've got picks 1.8 and 1.18. It just screams wide receiver to me. Please be there.

[Chas in Cinti]

Enjoyed the run-through... so for Washington, are you going to take a similar bent long-term on the cohesion/affinity play? Or are you "trying something different"?

[QuikSand]

Well, I put a little bit of heart into an Ol trade block, but in this league I don't expect any nibbles. Dealing Shepherd just feels super dumb, I expect we will just live with the weak chemistry and try to get by with...(checks notes)... guys with big red bars.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti

Enjoyed the run-through... so for Washington, are you going to take a similar bent long-term on the cohesion/affinity play? Or are you "trying something different"?

DC BUREAU

I really struggled with what to do there. Over the course of the last offseason, I shifted gears from maintain-it, to lets-just-run-it-all-day, to eventually all-chem and switch-the-stud-RB-to-play-slot-receiver. Quite a turnabout, indeed.

At the moment, I am having a bit of a gameplanning crisis, as I look at some of the numbers for what that team did, and it seems in many ways they were better than I would have expected from my own gameplan (technical problems, I think the team was just under an AI/Rex gameplan). That is unnerving to see the WR1 post up a full 10 yards per target, when I couldn't get that out of Green Lantern on my teams. So, I fear the future when that same guy, possibly with the same (conflict) QB throwing to him, posts my more conventional 150 targets for 1,050 yards next season and I start to suspect I'm a net liability there.

Also, I have a solid chem plan there for the RB/FB and WR/TE groups, but the OL is a mess. I just invested a top pick into a star C, but could I honestly just walk away from him chem-wise and start building the group in better alignment with the other two groups? I thought I landed a good OL asset in round 3, but he looks weak now, so it's really just abandoning one young guy. I don't know.

I'm also stuck with a too-good-to-cut LB who has the bad chemistry combo of 100/57 or something close to that - irreplaceable as leader, but not that great to build around. I rather enjoyed the challenge of doing so anyway, but will I get chemistry-driven wanderlust as his fat, bonus-heavy contract winds down? Probably.

I am also unsatisfied with my chem plan amidst the DB group. I'm steering away from the triad that BAL is committed to, just out of prudence, but I don't really have a great plan there, mostly for lack of a leader (I thought I had forced a future group leader in for starts, but the AI deactivated him as I made late file-stage changes after deciding the team was basically a lost cause for the year).

TL;DR - Some pieces are in place and I'm cool with that. Have a few more decisions yet to make. One more offseason and I ought to have a plan, probably heavy with chemistry.

[QuikSand]

Did a roster analysis of the Washington team. Trying something different here...

GML Washington Roster Analysis - Google Sheets

Notes on every player included alongside ratings, other stuff.

[QuikSand]

Okay, Ravens - the big stage, FA 1:2. $205m in cap space, nearly 30%. Room to move.

38 players signed
09 draft picks
05 RFA no-brainer signings
---
52 players "in hand"

Once again, we don't really need to do a lot here. I have plenty of my own guys I would like to re-sign. So, I'm signaling that we don't need rookies. That's dumb, we're a two-time .500 club with no plan forward... of course we needs to get better. Stupid.

The reality is, I would really like to make a franchise-defining move here. In the draft, in free agency, something. I'm getting bored with this team...should we go to a totally different offense, a run-like-crazy setup? Do I just need a QB I can invest in? Would one stud player give us that buzz? I don't know.

I think we are at a now-v-later crossroads, and I suppose I need to push in on the "later." We have a number of productive older players where I'll need to decide whether to re-sign (or just keep) them around and in the fold - knowing that it comes at the slot/cap expense of potentially longer term assets. WR Brad Franz wants $30m. What do we do there? He might mean +0.8 wins this year with his decent skills and huge cohesion. So...sign him? I honestly am not certain. If I had a "go for it" QB talent, that might make this a lot easier. Nobody in the draft, even a QB or WR, would change the outlook for this year very much.

Ok, we will sort it out. Expect our usual flood of offers in early free agency, with even less focus than usual, probably.

[QuikSand]

Just wrapped up, I think, all my FA pursuits. Really slim pickin' along the D7, one of the places where I know I need help. Was our anemic pass rush last season a fluke, or a deep problem? Not sure. I don't think cohesion can solve it. Might call for a draft pick there, regrettably. I don't think I can win without real pressure.

On to the draft. Honestly have not even looked as I type this. Pick #8 is the most exciting thing we have going for us. I do NOT want to draft a "great guard" here. Need to target an impact position.

[QuikSand]

Yeah... not going to be a "big-trade-up" nor a "oh please let this guy fall" situation. We'll get a quality addition at 8 and probably 18, but nobody jumps off the screen at me, as either a perfect fit QB or a game-changing receiver... which is really all I wanted. Best guess is we'll just take the best of what's left at WR and consider that our talent infusion, and then go BPA at pick 18. And yes, that could easily be a guard. Sigh.

[QuikSand]

...and just in case I was going to get my hopes up a bit about the receiver position... first two picks are off the board... WR, WR

pretty standard for FOF at this point, just depressing... it feels like an NBA draft...once you're outside the lottery, you're just on the outside

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Without going too deep here, I remain not completely sold on my chemistry structure for three of five groups. That's awful, for me.

At OL, there's just a dearth of good strong leaders anywhere in this league at the 9-10/12-1/1-2 triad, where I invested my 1st and 3rd round picks last season (and got a build-around caliber C). So, do I force the square peg there, or try to call an audible and build in another group - maybe one that would connect with a QB from the signs driven by my RB and WR group leaders?

At D7, it just irks me to have an irreplaceable leader with only 57 personality. He's good, very good, but it's annoying. My DT is also very good, and in the same sign, with a better personality rating. Do we just build around the 3-4 guy and assume it will get better once I move on from the LB leader?

And at DB. Ugh. Built for 9-10 leader now, got a young guy, thought he'd play CB2 enough last year to click in, he didn't. Now, I sense the team might be decent - I don't want to mess with that if I don't have to. So, I'm splashing in free agency, maybe grabbing an alternative leader, switching groups, and leave my CB1 on the team but unconnected to chemistry. Don't love it, but... ugh.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Also, I might need a 4-TE gameplan for that team this year...

[QuikSand]

Today's idle musing, while the draft is held hostage by an owner who didn't even bother to register, and the next stage is a full day away:

-maybe we redouble our running game commitment?
-lock up QB Wolf as a good-fit, more-affordable, run-around guy
-don't over-reach for a receiver in the draft, maybe buff up the OL
-give this a legit try, and tote the rock 30+ times a game
-not willing to go super heavy there (100% rushing), too mush testing
-but just taking my current gameplan and loading up with more runs, sure

In play.

[QuikSand]

5 picks off the board. I still have "reach-for-receivers" available, and that's in play, even if not a talent-optimized way to use this pick at 1.8.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/draftclass.php

There's a star caliber OT, several big DL, a do-it-all RB - these seem like the "BPA" picks here. None are fits with my chem scheme, so I'm reluctant to commit that way. (I have kicked around looking at how we could rebuild our OL group if we were to take this OT...but to be honest, not even a nibble out there from my trade block... hard to see just walking away from all that equity)

My best guess is I just hold my nose, take my top graded "fit" receiver, and make the best of it. Then at pick 18, with any luck, we'll have one of a handful of logicals there to make a second impression.

[QuikSand]

KC sends

1.11
2.2120
4.2120

BAL sends

1.08
5.2120



I deal down, and cross fingers... suddenly the guy-guys who left me uninspired to simply pick at 1.8 would be a MASSIVE LOSS if taken before 1.11. My best guess is that one of my top two guys will go, but the other will slide and we'll fine.

[QuikSand]

Okay, both first rounders in the books for the Ravens... WR WR...neither looks perfect, but I'm fairly pleased.

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes WR Parker VanCaeyzeele with the 1.11 pick.

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes WR Warren Behne with the 1.18 pick.

I had a RB in my queue, who looked to me like a WR convert as well, he went off the board at my original pick 1.8.


A very big-bars RB (without exceptional combines) was the one that got away - a non-affinity guy but the most tantalizing set of bars in the class.

[Chas in Cinti]

That 2nd pick looks like a Ted Ginn type of guy...

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Big news from the DC Team...

There's a new sherrif in town

Clancy has had four underwhelming seasons in Buffalo, and they let him walk into free agency. I see a lot of big red bars and a not-awful implied AvoidInt...so I'm all in now. He will be a chem fit for our RB and WR leaders short term, too. This seemed like the right thing to do. Looks like our bidding guess was pretty spot on, too... I went higher bonus than Seattle, presumably, who offered more but got rejected. So, we are locked in. Ride or die with Clancy.

[QuikSand]

(reading between the lines: WAS plan > BAL plan)

[QuikSand]

BAL FA update:

Big news is we missed out on a star OT... losing out to Minnesota. our chemistry groups are now getting crowded, with Minnesota and Kansas City all over the guys I'm bidding on, on offense. It's rotten.

KC is now after QB Ivan Wolf, and other guys on my kick-the-tires list. Awesome.

[johnnyshaka]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

BAL FA update:

Big news is we missed out on a star OT... losing out to Minnesota. our chemistry groups are now getting crowded, with Minnesota and Kansas City all over the guys I'm bidding on, on offense. It's rotten.

Nothing personal...we needed to upgrade our OTs and, more importantly, we had cap space to make a splash in FA, so we went after the two best guys...overpaying one of them and seemingly hitting the other contract right on the nose.

If it makes you feel any better...chemistry had nothing to do with either of those signings.

[QuikSand]

So, big free agent signing in Baltimore...

Dear Leader - Shaun Bernardino

I made an allusion before that I might need to add to a team strength to make a big move in free agency. Well, here he is. I overpaid, but he's just too perfect a fit. CB1 talent, and a monster chemistry leader for our DB group. Lock it up.

[QuikSand]

Also, round two draft pick - not a move-the-needle position, exactly, but we're just looking to keep adding offensive talent in hopes we someday will do something with it.

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes FB Kristopher Hillhouse with the 2.17 pick.

Seems like a nice H-back type. No idea how to, you know, do that or anything, but sure.

[johnnyshaka]

I'm curious to see how you use Hillhouse, he's definitely an interesting fella.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by johnnyshaka

I'm curious to see how you use Hillhouse, he's definitely an interesting fella.

Agreed, though I'm not sure I'm the right guy to max him out. Anyway, he will at least get a look at TE, especially given some instability with chem (deets to follow).

[QuikSand]

FA transactions... with big chem news (my bad):

FL Brad Franz	FA Stage 6	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
SE Orlando Craver	FA Stage 6	turned down a contract offer: 3yrs, $48,000,000.
FB Daryl Martin	FA Stage 6	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Green Bay: 3yrs, $18,000,000.
RDE Hector Akin	FA Stage 6	signed as an unrestricted free agent from New Orleans: 2yrs, $18,000,000.
RB Lincoln Ayi	FA Stage 6	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $16,000,000.
SE Cameron Booker	FA Stage 6	signed as an unrestricted free agent from San Diego: 3yrs, $30,000,000.
TE Ronald Austin	FA Stage 7	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $13,000,000.
LDE Tevin Barker	FA Stage 7	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Dallas: 3yrs, $23,400,000.

So, somehow last season I neglected to extend my group leader TE Austin. After multiple stages with no other interest, he gets signed away by Atlanta. Can't tell whether this is a chemistry move for them, or just a BPA thing - but the offer was aggressive as a 1yr offer. So, I lose my group leader. Well, my rookie WRs are both 4-5 guys, and my rookie FB(TE?) is a 6-7 guy -- so it's not out of the question we just try to rebuild around a new leader from the 2-3 group. Not sure the plan from here, I handled this poorly.


DE Barker will be a pass rush presence. WR Franz is on a salary-only cut-ready deal, but might play decoy this season with his high RR and high cohesion. No deep details elsewhere.

[QuikSand]

More draft updates from Ravens HQ:

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes DT Kevin Turnbull with the 3.16 pick.

Hoping what I thin I see here is true - shift him outside, probably, and set him as a pure edge rusher. Non-voids everywhere is modestly encouraging, but he's only the pick here to do one thing. It's just the one thing that i want someone to come do for us. #EarPinner

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes G Perry Kendrick with the 4.15 pick.

4% development isn't ideal, but this is round four, not round two. If that maxed-out RB bar holds up, this guy could actually be valuable to us. I needed to add a G to the roster anyhow, and we'll see if this guy might be able to get his battery of starts right from the get go. About my usual level of intrigue for a 4th round pick.

[QuikSand]

More Baltimore draft picks:

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes FB Branden Ricker with the 5.8 pick.

...another offensive chesspiece...

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes CB Darrell Burroughs with the 5.14 pick.

And the one of my favorite FOF moments... looking at my "list" for he next draft pick, and then I'm underwhelmed, so I decide maybe I should do a couple more quick sorts just to see if I missed something and then... HOW IS THIS GUY STILL HERE?


Okay, probably no big deal, but a high-personality affinity DB with high dev % and potentially maxed out special teams and kick returning? Can this guy be for real? How did I miss him before? Beats me. Let's see if he's worth anything.

[QuikSand]

[QuikSand]

Hmmm, just wrote up my first 4 picks from WAS, and it shows up as an empty post. Great.

1 big time tackle
2 intriguing CB
3 unexciting edge
4 workmanlike linebacker
5-6-7 stay tuned, maybe specialists ahead

That's what we get for try #2.

[QuikSand]

Free agency rounding out... a few signings of consequence here:

	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	LDE Ethan Anthony	1 year, $8,000,000 (Bonus: $0K. Salary: $8.0M.)	48	48
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	SILB Rodolfo Beardslee	3 years, $22,800,000 (Bonus: $9.3M. Salary: $4.5M, $4.5M, $4.5M.)	54	54
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	TE Alvin Bush	2 years, $13,000,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $6.5M, $6.5M.)	41	41
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	TE Elijah Covington	3 years, $48,000,000 (Bonus: $33.0M. Salary: $5.0M, $5.0M, $5.0M.)	69	69
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	QB Jackson Denny	2 years, $8,330,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $3.8M, $4.5M.)	31	31
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	RT Josiah Kratzer	1 year, $3,400,000 (Bonus: $0K. Salary: $3.4M.)	17	56
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	LDE Terrell Mealey	2 years, $10,100,000 (Bonus: $40K. Salary: $5.0M, $5.0M.)	28	28
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	SLB Edgar Peterson	2 years, $20,600,000 (Bonus: $10.6M. Salary: $5.0M, $5.0M.)	41	41
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	FL Rusty Reinsel	2 years, $7,640,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $3.8M, $3.8M.)	34	34
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	FB D.J. Shepherd	1 year, $6,500,000 (Bonus: $0K. Salary: $6.5M.)	18	18

TE Covington is the obvious "who?" moment here - 7th year guy, does everything pretty well, and we had cap space. Career ypt is under 7 and that's distressing, but again - I'm just trying to accumulate pieces here. A comparable talent at WR would have been great, but for now, he may well be our TE1.

FB Shepherd is a chemistry puzzle piece - he likely spends this year either at TE or OL, as a patchover leader.

LB Peterson is just a good fit, and a cohesion/chem asset, so I got pushed into overpaying for him in a bidding war. No crisis, at least we won the war.

LB Beardslee is a 6th year run stopper, guy we likely slot in at WLB - not a star but he should be useful, we were thin.

[QuikSand]

BAL is now at 58 players on the roster, with a few more targets out there and a draft class about to land. We are going to have a lot of wheat/chaff decisions ahead. Several of these guys are on cut-friendly contracts, but not all of them. Alas...we're not really facing a cap crisis. More of an "overall talent" crisis.

KC signed our old QB Ivan Wolf...the idea of bidding to keep him flitted in my mind, but apparently never clicked enough to make an offer. So, I reckon that leaves us with Levine again this year.

[QuikSand]

As a side note, I don't know what Ben is doing down in Atlanta. I have butted heads with him on several players - it seems like he's building his QB stable around the same 7-8/8-9/11-12 triad that my WAS team's offense is mainly framed with - so he just outbid me for a QB2 level guy, which is fine. But I don't see signs of any other deep thinking... frex, last stage he big HEAVY to lure away my TE leader, who now lands on his team as a group leader with no meaningful WR/TE connections, and out of sync with the QB group. I don't get it.

[QuikSand]

The BELCO Scouting Service has rated the Baltimore Draft (admittedly with its two first rounders) as: #2 overall !!!

2

BAL

QuikSand

1(18) SE Warren Behne 47/68 1(11) SE Parker VanCaeyzeele 40/62 3(16) RDT Kevin Turnbull 29/42 2(17) FB Kristopher Hillhouse 41/66 4(15) RG Perry Kendrick 16/67 5(14) RCB Darrell Burroughs 27/45 5(8) FB Branden Ricker 32/59

1(18) SE Warren Behne 47/68 1(11) SE Parker VanCaeyzeele 40/62 3(16) RDT Kevin Turnbull 29/42 2(17) FB Kristopher Hillhouse 41/66 4(15) RG Perry Kendrick 16/67 5(14) RCB Darrell Burroughs 27/45 5(8) FB Branden Ricker 32/59

77.7

Both our receivers grade out very nicely in the initial look, and we're getting good marks down the line. Delightful.


With my own "sneak peek" I see much the same. Love this group. Great timing, as my interest in the team may have been flagging a bit.

[QuikSand]

Some other complications... most notably, DE Helming is holding out, not a shock. He is thinking $70m/yr...and I am having major trouble swallowing that figure. He's a very good player, but a run-stopping DE in my 3-4... I don't feel like that's honestly a premium position. He's been getting pressure but it's been more for lack of alternatives. My plan had been to let him walk into free agency, and see if we could bring him back more reasonably, knowing that AVAILABLE would be in tune with his wishes, and I'd likely just lose him. To extend him, it would surely force me to release QB Levine (not a huge loss) but what else?

[QuikSand]

..also S Jake Conners is suspended for the year. In a zero-injury league, this is the bad dice roll. Fortunately we are loaded at DB, this won't hurt a bit and may free him up to reneg down next season. Zero concern here.

[Chas in Cinti]

Would like to see a boost or two post camp...

[QuikSand]

So, I use my T tight end a good deal as a passing target in 12 formations. I'm wondering if there's a way to thread a needle here, and try to use a guy like rookie FB Hillhouse in an H-back role, where he's formally slotted as a fullback, gets used as a lead blocker, but in that particular formation, he releases a lot for air targets (like maybe 50-60 of them in a season).


It's tough to know how to use a guy like this. He's 228 lbs, so technically too light to shift to TE, probably... and at only 5-11 he'd likely suffer a height penalty, whatever that is. But just playing in that role... maybe? or, should my thinking go in the other direction, and should I try to get him to lose weight, and see if a switch to RB makes sense? Hole Rec 45/52 not bad. Hmmmm. Or, I suppose, I could give him a season like this to just toss around and do a little bit of everything... get him those H-back targets, slot him in as our RB in one formation, use him as a lead blocker and special teamer, and see if that feels like a job worthy of an early draft pick.

[QuikSand]

Okay, later free agency. I often find a few jewels among the post-draft rookie class, but this year the pickings seemed unusually slim. Still a few signings to comment on:


(hmm having pasting problems)

SLB Harvey LaForest	Late FA Stage 1	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Miami: 2yrs, $7,250,000.
TE Vinny Money	Late FA Stage 1	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
SLB Gilbert Michl	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 3yrs, $22,800,000.
FL B.J. Woods	Late FA Stage 2	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent
SILB Greg Raymond	Late FA Stage 2	signed as an unrestricted free agent from New Orleans: 2yrs, $7,250,000.
FB Mercury Szymanski	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,240,000.
RCB Erik Jamison	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,240,000.
TE Ronald Austin	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $9,100,000.

Well, well, well, TE Ronald Austin. So, you got your $5m signing bonus from Ben and his Falcons, and now you're back home like a wandering dog in heat. Well, you're in luck, because we really need you. And we're deep enough at TE that you're actually worth more to us as a minsal bench guy than as a money guy with cohesion. So... I hope you learned your lesson. (No need to splash on Ben here, I just assume he was chemifying, needed some bonus cash to land this guy for one possible option, and then ruled out that option)

LB Michl isn't thrilling, but at a relatively thin position, he's a good enough fit to make a move here with some real money. Late career guy, becomes our best overall LB, and is a huge chem asset. So, we're not in "give up" mode, at least.

LB Ramond might be the next guy who lands in BAL after being cast off as a draft bust, finds a home, and sticks around for a decade. Big personality, decent at two things I care about (RunD and Zone), and not much here to compete with for the LB4/5/6 job. LB Laforest likely has a tougher road ahead to make the team, but he has one major advantage - his chemistry is pre-attained through getting 8 starts elsewhere. There could be room for both.

I was fully ready for WR Woods to walk, but ended up putting in an offer, and he's back. WR will be a tricky position with the two rookies, but I'll enjoy sorting that out.

[QuikSand]

Quick personnel note. I am simply not paying DE Helming his $70m/yr. He'll be cut. It's a loss, but one that was easy enough to see coming when I used an early draft pick on a run-stopping DL. Just a mistake I need to avoid.

Our D-line is going to be shaky, it's an area of need. Not sure I want to spend early draft picks there as much as I did for a while, but... well, never say never.

[QuikSand]

The rookie class looks really good, nothing new there. Preseason movement will help inform things there, but - early assessment is that we got two long term assets at WR (though probably not a serious top-drawer WR1), three interesting FB/TE guys, a borderline asset for the interior OL, a rotation-caliber pass rusher, and a great find at CB/KR/ST. Best in years and years.

For anyone who might have listened to Round Two of Squirrel and QuikSand, I'll offer quick impressions on the two receivers... he liked my second guy Behne more than my first guy VanCaeyzeele. At this point, Behne does look like the true split end I had hoped for, with non-zero endurance around 15 or so - we'll take it. But he won't have maxed-out top ratings, more like 75-80 by my scouts thus far. I'm fine with that, but he likely isn't a guy rivaling the top two receivers in overall quality. PVC (I like that) looks like a jackknife type...projecting in the 60-75 range in most things, but disappointingly only 50 in route running, which might serve as an overall utility ceiling. Long term asset, but probably more of a WR3 type than a WR1, sadly.

[QuikSand]

DC BUREAU

Okay, we have an active late free agency, as the reshuffling frenzy continues. I'll spare the gory details, but will post the list of transactions for this stage to illustrate:


RDE Tre DevlinLate FA Stage 1has begun a contract holdoutRDE Tre DevlinLate FA Stage 1releasedRCB Lionel DanielsLate FA Stage 1Changed position from FS to CBSS Nathan GilesLate FA Stage 1releasedLCB Ellis CassidyLate FA Stage 1Changed position from RCB to CBRCB Elias WarrenLate FA Stage 1releasedRCB Gary LoweLate FA Stage 1Changed position from LCB to CBLCB Britt SmithLate FA Stage 1releasedQB Emmett PerkinsLate FA Stage 1releasedRG Omar WilkinsLate FA Stage 1releasedFL Damon MaloneLate FA Stage 1signed a renegotiated contract: 4yrs, $124,000,000.RB Jerald HoyleLate FA Stage 1releasedQB Bryce McGriffLate FA Stage 1releasedK Hugh GrierLate FA Stage 1releasedRG Salvador StrayhornLate FA Stage 1releasedRT Kevin CookLate FA Stage 1re-signed as an unrestricted free agentLDE Ellis SheheeLate FA Stage 1signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,500,000.RG Donnell HutchinsLate FA Stage 1turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $5,980,000.TE Rich WilsonLate FA Stage 1signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,240,000.LS Zach HuttonLate FA Stage 1signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,820,000.WILB Manuel WalshLate FA Stage 2signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $9,000,000.SLB Luke DrainLate FA Stage 2signed as an unrestricted free agent from Pittsburgh: 1yrs, $4,700,000.FL Enrique MeyersLate FA Stage 2turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $5,240,000.FL Riddick MuscarellaLate FA Stage 2signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,400,000.K Bill FletcherLate FA Stage 2signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,500,000.QB Tyler DawkinsLate FA Stage 3turned down a contract offer: 1yrs, $9,000,000.LT Luther CobbLate FA Stage 3re-signed as an unrestricted free agentLS Leroy BlakeLate FA Stage 3signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,820,000.FL Alexander KeithLate FA Stage 3signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,240,000.K Terrell FineLate FA Stage 3signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,000,000.SS Clifton RiceLate FA Stage 3signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $4,500,000.SS Reginald BoydLate FA Stage 3signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,820,000.


Not some cockeyed effort to mess around, I'm just...well, I'm messing around. Anyhow, I'm cycling out marginal players and replacing them with "good fit" players who will get on board with the plan here.

One thing that is definitely going to be annoying - Ben's Atlanta team seems to have settled on the same affinity triad for his QBs than we have (and for us, two of three offensive groups). So, that's an added challenge.

By the way, our 8th round rookie WR Alexander is going to stick and be useful, he'll be a gunner over time and maybe even a WR4. Nice grab on a one-year salary-only deal there.

In other news, our 3rd round RB, drafted for the purposes of a switch to WR, turns out to (I think) have a hidden void in big play receiving... so we'll keep him at RB for the time being, but I wouldn't have used the pick if we knew he was going to just plug in as another body in a crowded field of mediocre young backs. Alas, such are the risks of a move like that. Might make a good topic for a video chat, eh?

[QuikSand]

Here's a roster dump as we prepare to cut down to 60 in today's stage:

Front Office Football Eight
Baltimore Ravens Roster, Scout Overview
   
  Player                #   Pos   Start Exp  Current Estimate Future Estimate  Cntrct 
Levine, Salvador        105 QB          7    45               45               4 yrs. 
Denny, Jackson          109 QB          7    29               29               2 yrs. 
Justin, Evan            115 QB          2    16               28               3 yrs. 
Walsh, Amir             120 QB          3    15               31               1 yr.  
Bush, Edwin             230 RB          5    53               53               2 yrs. 
Schweigert, Bernie      222 RB          5    48               48               2 yrs. 
Trimble, Vince          234 RB          1    34               45               2 yrs. 
Martin, Daryl           342 FB          7    55               55               3 yrs. 
Hillhouse, Kristopher   349 FB          1    48               67               4 yrs. 
Ricker, Branden         344 FB          1    38               60               4 yrs. 
Szymanski, Mercury      328 FB          1    37               49               2 yrs. 
Schroeder, Charles      340 FB          7    30               30               1 yr.  
Covington, Elijah       484 TE          7    63               63               3 yrs. 
Ogden, Leon             448 TE          3    56               56               2 yrs. 
Bush, Alvin             489 TE          5    44               44               2 yrs. 
Money, Vinny            446 TE          3    40               40               2 yrs. 
Polley, Wade            441 TE          2    32               33               1 yr.  
Terrell, Devan          482 TE          8    31               31               2 yrs. 
Austin, Ronald          480 TE          9    26               26               2 yrs. 
Franz, Brad             517 FL          11   48               48               1 yr.  
Woods, B.J.             583 FL          4    45               45               3 yrs. 
VanCaeyzeele, Parker    511 FL          1    44               64               4 yrs. 
##Booker, Cameron       588 FL          5    43               43               3 yrs. 
Kesselman, Trent        531 FL          2    28               32               2 yrs. 
Bridges, Buddy          585 FL          2    26               34               3 yrs. 
Behne, Warren           518 SE          1    52               74               4 yrs. 
Stocz, Lonnie           512 SE          6    50               50               2 yrs. 
Conway, Marco           516 SE          8    19               19               2 yrs. 
Glode, J.R.             670 C           5    73               73               3 yrs. 
Shepherd, D.J.          662 C           11   2                5                1 yr.  
Fattel, Jackie          765 LG          4    32               42               2 yrs. 
Kendrick, Perry         768 RG          1    22               65               4 yrs. 
Shepherd, Tyrus         863 LT          9    81               81               3 yrs. 
O'Donnell, Miguel       861 LT          4    75               75               5 yrs. 
Clements, Nate          874 LT          6    55               55               2 yrs. 
Odom, Arnold            860 LT          5    49               53               1 yr.  
Jennings, Caiden        878 RT          3    29               36               2 yrs. 
Kratzer, Josiah         866 RT          2    19               36               1 yr.  
Frederick, Edwin        904 P           11   47               47               1 yr.  
Thomas, Mario           1003K           5    86               86               3 yrs. 
Woods, Lorenzo          1159LDE         6    52               52               2 yrs. 
Anthony, Ethan          1198LDE         10   47               47               1 yr.  
Barker, Tevin           1195LDE         5    42               42               3 yrs. 
Turnbull, Kevin         1191LDE         1    34               44               4 yrs. 
Baxter, Gilbert         1179LDE         8    17               17               1 yr.  
Scott, Justics          1292NT          7    51               51               1 yr.  
Schneider, Gavin        1297NT          6    37               37               2 yrs. 
Beardslee, Rodolfo      1354SILB        6    53               53               3 yrs. 
Raymond, Greg           1390SILB        4    44               44               2 yrs. 
Givens, Dana            1352SILB        5    40               40               1 yr.  
Schenk, Rich            1356WILB        3    58               58               1 yr.  
Roybal, Giovanni        1350WILB        5    36               36               1 yr.  
Michl, Gilbert          1455SLB         9    61               61               3 yrs. 
Thomas, Burt            1447SLB         2    45               45               1 yr.  
Peterson, Edgar         1451SLB         7    42               42               2 yrs. 
LaForest, Harvey        1453SLB         4    42               42               2 yrs. 
Thill, Moe              1457WLB         2    38               38               3 yrs. 
Lentzner, Kody          1538LCB         7    70               70               4 yrs. 
Maas, Josue             1524LCB         7    69               69               3 yrs. 
Bernardino, Shaun       1507RCB         5    66               66               4 yrs. 
Calmus, Collin          1539RCB         6    53               53               3 yrs. 
Wiggins, Les            1526RCB         3    49               49               2 yrs. 
Vaughn, Shawn           1506RCB         4    29               29               2 yrs. 
Burroughs, Darrell      1537RCB         1    28               47               4 yrs. 
Patterson, Mitchell     1536RCB         3    22               33               2 yrs. 
McCormick, Kendrick     1633SS          7    47               47               1 yr.  
$$Conners, Jake         1629FS          6    44               44               3 yrs. 
Padilla, Dustin         1625FS          4    44               44               3 yrs. 
Tamburrino, Toby        669 LS          9    17               17               1 yr.  
   
$$ - player is suspended, ## - player is inactive,  
** = player is injured, %% - player is on IR.  
   
Players Under Contract: 69
Front Office Football Eight
Inactive: 1
On Active Roster: 67
   
Salary Cap: $694,500,000
Cap Room: $6,490,000
Maximum for New Player: $9,480,000
Cap Room Lost (to old contracts): $40,710,000
   
Cap Room Lost Next Year (to old contracts): $60,000
Cap Room Required Next Year: $616,160,000

[QuikSand]

Cut to 60

I don't think DJ Shepherd is going to make it. Had him temporarily slotted as a reserve OL, but all he adds there is a little gravity to our existing three affinities - just not enough of an impact to occupy a roster slot by the end of the line here. We'll just suffer though a tough stretch here without a good framework in place.

I'm actually excited about pre-camp pickup RB Vince Trimble, and he adds to the factors portending poorly for Mr. Liverwurst. But my scout sees 30/45, I expect that to bump a bit, and he may well factor in, get starts this year, and click in that 92 affinity. He'll make the 53 barring a preseason collapse. Liverwurst now has to watch our rookie CB who is competing against him for the same KR/ST combo that made him our alleged build-around back.