2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Trump's antibody treatment obtained from an abortion

Snarf snarf

Yeah almost like most pro-life people don't care about abortions and care more about telling women what they can do.

[Brian Swartz]

It's really over now. JLaw has endorsed Biden.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Yeah almost like most pro-life people don't care about abortions and care more about telling women what they can do.

*certain women

They quietly don't mind when their wives and mistresses get abortions after all.

[molson]

I just saw that Trump has only won 1 of the last 5 Texas polls. 2 Ties, 2 with Biden ahead.

[Drake]

There's the real threat to the republic. If Texas goes blue, I'm pretty sure they'll just secede.

[CrimsonFox]

georgia and iowa are pretty much tied!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Drake

There's the real threat to the republic. If Texas goes blue, I'm pretty sure they'll just secede.

so how does that work when southern texas is blue

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

so how does that work when southern texas is blue

The red part can all pitch in and build that wall

[Front Office Midget]

I see a lot of quoting of polls, but I'm not convinced.

I work as a political pollster, and just tonight I heard "go F yourself", "F you", "you don't know the score", and "polls are bull****". Of course, none of those people got a say in the poll but I think I could safely predict who they're voting for.

For all the talk of how much better the polls have gotten, there is also the reality that polls have a historically low response rate AND the incumbent has been running against the media and formal institutions for years, which is a new factor that I'm not sure can be properly weighted.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, it's definitely an interesting point. Put another way, the polls that Trump does the best in are the ones that you would expect to sample his followers (the online survey kind) - they get very poor grades and downsampled in most of the aggregators, but what if those are capturing people who are very enthusiastic about voting for a particular candidate where nobody else is.

I worked in the survey industry (IT for a sample provider) 15 years ago, and even then the industry didn't really have an answer for the fact that people were less likely to be able to be identified by their land lines which was the way to generate samples for the previous 50 years. I mean I assume Nate Silver is smart enough to have considered that especially what happened 4 years ago, but it's also something that only happens every 4 years and with social media and Trumpism, we really are in uncharted waters.

I guess we'll find out soon enough. Barring Biden getting Covid (there's a terrible thought) or falling asleep and his false teeth falling out in the debate, it's absolutely clear what the polls are saying and even with some level of voter suppression he should walk to victory. If this one ends up the other way short of Trump just declaring victory at 9pm on election night and declaring martial law, it's clear the current way political polls work are dead. Fool me once...

[Brian Swartz]

I think the reason to believe polls is that they have a track record of being proven correct. They are very accurate in terms of predicting how people actually vote. If that wasn't the case, I can see doubting them but you're aren't on the money as often as polls are by accident.

[Jas_lov]

Yeah, the national polls were off by a point in 2016 and captured the democrat wave in 2018. Biden's national lead is now up to 10 points on 538. I can see them being off by a point or two but not 10. I hope they're right this year so we can put this "all polling was wrong in 2016" myth to rest.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Front Office Midget

I see a lot of quoting of polls, but I'm not convinced.

I work as a political pollster, and just tonight I heard "go F yourself", "F you", "you don't know the score", and "polls are bull****". Of course, none of those people got a say in the poll but I think I could safely predict who they're voting for.

For all the talk of how much better the polls have gotten, there is also the reality that polls have a historically low response rate AND the incumbent has been running against the media and formal institutions for years, which is a new factor that I'm not sure can be properly weighted.

One could argue that the incumbent is running against the culture of the nation and established societal norms, which over time is to his own detriment.

[Swaggs]

I think a bigger challenge is in how accurate they are in estimating the electorate rather than how successful they are in reaching individuals? I'm sure there are varying levels of cooperation in different groups, but if you eventually get ahold of (say) 300 college educated, white women, 300 union members, 300 black christians, etc., the thought is that you can get a pretty accurate percentage of how they will vote. But then trying to determine what percentage of the electorate these groups will represent is a problem.

Here is a decent article on it (although it is a little confusing, as it talks about both discrepancies in the exit polling and changes between the 2012 and 2016 electorate): Voter Trends in 2016 - Center for American Progress

It seems like some of the big impacts were some pollsters considering that the black turnout would remain as high and loyal to Hillary as it was to Obama (there was a 7% drop-off in turnout and Trump won about 5% more) AND that although turnout did not change among non-college educated whites, they made up a bigger percentage of the vote (and particularly so in the rust belt states where Trump won PA, MI, and WI by very small margins).

This is also why some pollsters still have sound reputations, despite having house effects. I think most folks feel like Rassmussen and Zogby are pretty reputable outfits, but that they tend to overestimate the GOP electorate in their polling (why Trump consistently touts his high approval rating in Rasmussen, whereas in many other polls he has rarely or never been above 50%).

[Thomkal]

So there's another Graham/Harrison debate tonight, and Harrison had demanded that Graham get tested for COVID-19 again given Graham's proximity to several R's that got it. Graham refused, and it looked like there might not be a debate at all. Now the two have come to an agreement to have seperate interviews with a moderator and panel. It will be interesting to see if any of those moderators and panel members come down with COVID now.

Also big shout out to the MeidasTouch campaign on Twitter to get people to chip in on a banner that should be flying over Lindsay's head right about now that says "Lindsey Sucks at Debates"

[ISiddiqui]

I just checked and our absentee ballots were Accepted. We dropped them off on Wednesday, so I'm glad for the quick turnaround (though I'm not sure why they don't email a status update rather than making you check the website every few days to see if it's accepted).

[Brian Swartz]

85% on 538 now.

[spleen1015]

It has moved between 84 and 85 since I looked yesterday morning.

Still won't get my hopes up.

[spleen1015]

4 hour dola...

Does anyone care about Hilary's email anymore?

I might have cared 4 years ago, but who gives a shit now? I certainly don't.

[kingfc22]

Judge granted an injunction for the Texas voter suppression tactic of limiting one drop-off box per county.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Judge granted an injunction for the Texas voter suppression tactic of limiting one drop-off box per county.

I still don't it for Abbott. I'm sure their internal numbers told them something. But: "To qualify for mail-in ballots in Texas, registered voters must cite a disability or illness, be 65 years or older, or be confined in jail but still eligible to vote. " (source)

So I would almost think that more votes would be cast by mail for GOP than Dem.

SI

[Edward64]

I'm glad the next debate has been called off and both are going to do their own thing. Don't think we need the third one either.

I was watching A Year in Space about Scott Kelley (who has a twin married to Gabby Gifford ... yes that one). There was an episode that showed Obama talking about his conversation with Scott in space, people around him laughing as Obama cracked jokes about it. And I was thinking, that is the "normal" type of Presidential things I want to see on TV and read about vs the continuous 4 years of drama. Admittedly much of the drama was hyped up by MSM but there is plenty enough to know Trump is the root cause.

I'm ready for "normalcy" and pre-Trump old school politics.


EDIT: see link on what they found out about the twin experiment and what humans have to deal with for an extended trip to Mars.

Scott Kelly's Year in Space Took a Toll On His Body | Time

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

4 hour dola...

Does anyone care about Hilary's email anymore?

I might have cared 4 years ago, but who gives a shit now? I certainly don't.

I didn't care 4 years ago. Once it was reported that Colin Powell also had the same type of server, I knew this was just a bogus witch hunt.

[bronconick]

Given that I doubt Trump was ever tested until he was sick (just made others be tested), I wouldn't ever agree to be in the same room as him.

[Thomkal]

I sent my absentee ballot in, and man it sure felt good to vote against Trump and Graham

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I didn't care 4 years ago. Once it was reported that Colin Powell also had the same type of server, I knew this was just a bogus witch hunt.

And like half the Trumps use private email, too, to avoid public records laws no doubt.

I'll just go with the most common Tweet I see around this: "Boy, Hillary's never going to win the 2020 election now". Something about fighting to win the last war comes to mind.

SI

[CrimsonFox]

I did my part today at a local honk and wave, adding my own rock flare

[Thomkal]

yay CF!

[GrantDawg]

Go CF!

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[Lathum]

nice beard

[PilotMan]

What sort of impact is the 2020 House going D this year, going to impact the redistricting for the next 10 years, and the overall political picture? We know that the 2010 maps lead us, in part, to where we are today.

[JPhillips]

Good question, as I expect the GOP to ratfuck things with redistricting and reapportionment. It's another area a 6-3 court could play a big role.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What sort of impact is the 2020 House going D this year, going to impact the redistricting for the next 10 years, and the overall political picture? We know that the 2010 maps lead us, in part, to where we are today.

Almost all of it is at the state legislative level or "nonpartisan" state redistricting committees.

Republicans could lose three big state races

[Brian Swartz]

86%. The noose tightens.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

What sort of impact is the 2020 House going D this year, going to impact the redistricting for the next 10 years, and the overall political picture? We know that the 2010 maps lead us, in part, to where we are today.

It is the state legislatures and governors that generally control redistricting. If those go down with Trump it will make a huge difference for the next decade.

[Ryche]

What bronconick said, I should pay better attention

[JPhillips]

OC Register is reporting that fake drop boxes are being put out and seem to have connections to GOPers in CA.

Too bad this isn't the fraud Barr is looking for.

[sterlingice]

C'mon, man, with a story like that you have to have a link

SI

[kingfc22]

Unofficial ballot drop boxes popping up throughout the state worry elections officials – Orange County Register

[albionmoonlight]

Across the country over the next few weeks, some idiots are going to get charged with actual election crimes because they will be trying to show how easy it is to commit those crimes.

Of course, the fact that these guys are getting caught proves the opposite of their point. It is kind of like showing how easy it is to rob a bank by reaching over the teller window and grabbing some cash and running out and getting caught a block later.

And it kind of shows the world in which these guys have lived. They are committing crimes on a lark with no real sense that the criminal law would ever actually come down on them. They are just joking. They are just trying to prove a point. They didn't actually mean to do anything wrong. Life's all been a big game for them up until this point. Which, congratulations, I guess. But you better hope the DA sees it the same way.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Across the country over the next few weeks, some idiots are going to get charged with actual election crimes because they will be trying to show how easy it is to commit those crimes.

Of course, the fact that these guys are getting caught proves the opposite of their point. It is kind of like showing how easy it is to rob a bank by reaching over the teller window and grabbing some cash and running out and getting caught a block later.

And it kind of shows the world in which these guys have lived. They are committing crimes on a lark with no real sense that the criminal law would ever actually come down on them. They are just joking. They are just trying to prove a point. They didn't actually mean to do anything wrong. Life's all been a big game for them up until this point. Which, congratulations, I guess. But you better hope the DA sees it the same way.

Meanwhile, I'm concerned there will also be some big crimes that will go undetected and unpunished. Not of the "haha - I can throw 10 ballots in the trash - see the system doesn't work when I get caught". But of the "Diebold machines are really easy to manipulate" variety.

SI

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

C'mon, man, with a story like that you have to have a link

SI

It was paywalled.

[albionmoonlight]

The PredictIt markets are getting more interesting.

Florida and NC are getting more and more blue.

As Ohio, Iowa, GA, and TX get more and more red.

Those seem like inconsistent movements.

It seems that the partisans are manipulating the markets in a way unconnected to the actual election.

I'd love to see their proprietary numbers to see where the actual money is coming from. The betting caps are low enough that it would not take much outside money to actually move the markets (which seems to be happening on both sides)

[Lathum]

Could Texas have to do with the blatant voter suppression?

[GrantDawg]

I know I would put money on Georgia staying red. I don't care if the polls move even further Biden's way. Voter suppression is an art form here.

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[PilotMan]

I think OH, FL and TX all stay red, but the other areas where they picked up in 2016 are gone, and those will fall blue.

[BYU 14]

I think Florida is still a strong candidate to flip, it all depends on what shenanigan's DeSantis can get away with. Agree the other two stay red.

[kingfc22]

News sites need to drop their paywalls during election season. Just got my ballot and trying to get multiple view points on items is next to impossible due to the number of paywalls out there.

[ISiddiqui]

If news sites were to drop their paywalls when people needed their information, why would anyone subscribe at all? And then the news sites would end up folding (as a lot of papers already have done).

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[GrantDawg]

Extend wait times being reported across most of metro Atlanta. 8 hours at the main office in Gwinnett, 5 hours at other Gwinnett locations. 5 hours wait in Cobb. I know at the only Newton voting location open, the line was around the building to get to the zig-zag line in the back. 2-3 hours would be my guess there.

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