2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Lemme see here ...
Cabrera: 109 runs + 139 RBI - 44 HR = 204 / 725 Team Runs = 28.1%
Trout: 129 runs + 83 RBI - 30 HR = 182 / 767 Team Runs = 23.7%

Lookie, advanced metrics can be fun for everybody

[Arles]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Because batting average and RBI are incredibly overrated stats and 1 guy on a 25 man roster has very little control over what those other 24 do.

I don't buy this. I think getting hits in key situations is important to winning. Even if you take "opportunity" out of this, Cabrera and Trout have these numbers:

Trout:
.303 AVG, 22% K rate and .916 OPS with men on base
.330 AVG, 21% K rate and .967 OPS with men in scoring position

Cabrera:
.340 AVG, 13% K rate and .993 OPS with men on base
.356 AVG, 12% K rate and 1.005 OPS with men in scoring position

There is value in having better numbers when you have the opportunity to score runs as a hitter.

[Atocep]

One one hand it's frustrating that anyone today still thinks BA, HR, and RBIs should be the deciding factors on who wins the MVP, but on the other hand the fact that Trout is getting strong attention in a year in which someone won the triple crown is another sign of progress in the media and voting.

When you look at what each player brings to the table there's really isn't much of an argument for Cabrera to win. He had a great season and accomplished a statistical rarity in baseball. Trout had one of the 25-30 best seasons since the live ball era began.

Cabrera is a great player on his way to being a 1st ballot hall of famer, but he wasn't the best player in the AL this year.

[Chief Rum]

Heh... wrap your heads around this. Tigers don't get into the playoffs without Trout and the Angels. The Tigers were in serious trouble and likely to miss the playoffs until the Angels swept the White Sox the second to last weekend of the season.

The Angels even did the favor of dropping two of three to the Tigers in September. Heh... the one win they had in that series was over Verlander when Trout led off the game with a HR in his first ever at bat against Verlander, and then ended the game by stealing a HR from Fielder from over the centerfield wall.

Yeah, he wasn't the MVP all right.

[Arles]

I wouldn't be upset if either guy won it. But, I feel like you're almost punished as a hitter in today's game if you have a large number of RBI. The backlash has gone too far, IMO.

Trout had a season for the ages, but Cabrera had an extremely productive season. I think people forget that the wRC+, wOBP, wRAA and WAR numbers are meant to evaluate a player's talent - not judge how great a season he had. RBI, AVG and other numbers (esp in key situations) can show how productive a player was for that season. Will there be some luck/good fortune in terms of players on base/balls in play? Of course.

If your goal is to show which player was more valuable to winning games for their team, then SAC flies, late RBIs and hits with men on base have more value that a 2-out single and a stolen base that resulted in no runs. So, if Cabrera was "luckier" to get more RBI - those RBI still helped the Tigers win more games and make the playoffs. The award is for the "Most Valuable Player" - not the most outstanding, most talented or (for the SABR guys) "Best season with the least amount of luck".

[larrymcg421]

But they didn't help the Tigers win more games as they didn't win more than the Angels, which is kind of hilarious. Even under the W-L argument, we'd have to ridiculously punish Trout for being in a tougher division and thus not making the playoffs.

And of course we're all just defaulting on the question of fielding ability because it's not even fucking close, right?

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trout had one of the 25-30 best seasons since the live ball era began.

Top 25-30. Huh. How many players have a Triple Crown?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Arles

I wouldn't be upset if either guy won it. But, I feel like you're almost punished as a hitter in today's game if you have a large number of RBI. The backlash has gone too far, IMO.

If this is true it pales in comparison to the backlash SABR stats have received over the last decade.

Originally Posted by Arles

Trout had a season for the ages, but Cabrera had an extremely productive season. I think people forget that the wRC+, wOBP, wRAA and WAR numbers are meant to evaluate a player's talent - not judge how great a season he had.

Sorry, but this is bullshit. No other way to put it.

Originally Posted by Arles

RBI, AVG and other numbers (esp in key situations) can show how productive a player was for that season. Will there be some luck/good fortune in terms of players on base/balls in play? Of course.

RBI give a small to moderate amount of info about a player in a single season and situational stats give you about as much information as a couple of months of play during the season.

Every play in baseball carries value. A 2 out single and stolen base that don't result in a run still carry value. That player didn't get out. That's the goal when you're at bat. He put his team one step closer to scoring runs, allowed another hitter to come to the plate with a chance to drive him in, and forced the pitcher to throw more pitches than he otherwise would have. That has value. Over the course of the season those singles and stolen bases add more to your team than someone's ability to make flyball outs with a runner on 3rd.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Over the course of the season those singles and stolen bases add more to your team than someone's ability to make flyball outs with a runner on 3rd.

Sorry, but this is bullshit. No other way to put it.

[larrymcg421]

Babe Ruth never won a triple crown. I guess he never had a season as good as Cabrera's this year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Babe Ruth never won a triple crown. I guess he never had a season as good as Cabrera's this year.

Not necessarily ... but none of his individual seasons were better head-to-head than someone who won a triple crown in the same league & year during his career.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Sorry, but this is bullshit. No other way to put it.

A single and stolen base with 2 outs increases the runs your team is expected to score in an inning by about .236 runs.

If you have a runner on 3rd and no one out a sac fly actually lowers the number of runs expected for that inning. With a runner on 3rd and 1 out that sac fly increases the number of runs expected by .11.

Over the course of 162 games, not making outs is always going to carry more value than making outs.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

How is that silly? If those people were on base, perhaps Trout chokes where Cabrera didn't. Cabrera knocked them in.

Trout had a very, very good year, where Cabrera had a season for the ages.

Trout batted lead off in all but one of his 138 games. You put him in the middle of the line up and he basically has 25 more RBIs. That isn't even counting the fact that he didn't play 26 games at the start of the season. The only reason the Angels were in contention till the last 3 days of the season was because of him. Sure the "traditional" stats AVG, HR, and RBI point to Cabrera. But I don't think anyone can discount what Trout did this season by saying it was a very good year... It was much much more than very good.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by korme

I love sabermetrics as much as the next guy, but just to play devil's advocate: Ben Zobrist led the league in WAR last year

Not sure what crack you are smoking but it wasn't Zobrist.

Ellsbury 9.4
Kemp 8.8
Bautista 8.3

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

A single and stolen base with 2 outs increases the runs your team is expected to score in an inning by about .236 runs.

If you have a runner on 3rd and no one out a sac fly actually lowers the number of runs expected for that inning. With a runner on 3rd and 1 out that sac fly increases the number of runs expected by .11.

Over the course of 162 games, not making outs is always going to carry more value than making outs.

You're talking about expectations, I'm talking about an actual honest-to-goodness run on the board. It's the proverbial one in hand vs two in bush.

[stevew]

Ben Sheets retired today. Glad he got the chance to come back, if only for a moment. Injuries suck.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Someone who gets it.

I should clarify that I don't think Cabrera should get it. I don't think his season was anywhere NEAR as good as Trout's season. I just don't think there's any way the voters give it to Trout based on those two factors.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh... wrap your heads around this. Tigers don't get into the playoffs without Trout and the Angels. The Tigers were in serious trouble and likely to miss the playoffs until the Angels swept the White Sox the second to last weekend of the season.

The Angels even did the favor of dropping two of three to the Tigers in September. Heh... the one win they had in that series was over Verlander when Trout led off the game with a HR in his first ever at bat against Verlander, and then ended the game by stealing a HR from Fielder from over the centerfield wall.

Yeah, he wasn't the MVP all right.

Of all the debate points out there, a three game series (between two non-playoff teams) probably is lower on the totem pole than most.

SI

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Of all the debate points out there, a three game series (between two non-playoff teams) probably is lower on the totem pole than most.

SI

Keep in mind, this is just anecdotal. If you look back on my recent posts here in thread, you will find I have provided all the more pertinent season long arguments for Trout's MVP candidacy. This is just a little extra.

[spleen1015]

Is it possible for a tie to be the result of the MVP voting?

[Butter]

I'm going to enjoy watching when Cabrera wins the MVP, all the Angels fans' heads exploding.

Cabrera will win, whether you want him to or not. Better to make peace with it now, because it's going to happen. You don't not vote for the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years.

[M GO BLUE!!!]

I'm just glad Cabrera won the triple crown while in the lineup. He went 0 for 2, but he was out there. Winning while sitting doesn't feel right.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by M GO BLUE!!!

I'm just glad Cabrera won the triple crown while in the lineup. He went 0 for 2, but he was out there. Winning while sitting doesn't feel right.

I understand the optics, but nobody would complain about a game he sat out in April. If he would have sat he still would have played in 159 games. He won it honesty regardless of what might have happened the last day.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I'm going to enjoy watching when Cabrera wins the MVP, all the Angels fans' heads exploding.

Cabrera will win, whether you want him to or not. Better to make peace with it now, because it's going to happen. You don't not vote for the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years.

If Trout wins, we may as well scrap the award and just issue it to whomever has the highest WAR at the end of the season each year. If we can agree on whatever WAR actually means and how it is calibrated.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Not sure what crack you are smoking but it wasn't Zobrist.

Ellsbury 9.4
Kemp 8.8
Bautista 8.3

Depends on where you get your numbers. Zobrist lead the league on BR's measure 2 of the last 4 years. I can't believe he doesn't have 2 MVP's *shakes fist in the air*

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Not sure what crack you are smoking but it wasn't Zobrist.

Ellsbury 9.4
Kemp 8.8
Bautista 8.3

2011 American League Awards, All-Stars, & More Leaders - Baseball-Reference.com

[stevew]

Man, I can't believe Barry Bonds won 11 MVP WAR awards. Remember that Dickie Thon MVP WAR season of 1983? It was amazing.

[Easy Mac]

Bonds lead the league in WAR 6 times. He lead the league in WAR 5 of those years. The only exception was:

1996 - Lost to Caminiti. Was about 1 OWAR ahead, but the Giants finished last. SD finished in first.

He won the MVP in 1992 when he was .2 WAR behind Maddux (negligible) and 1993 when he was .1 WAR behind Jose Rijo (negligible).

[Easy Mac]

So the times he won the MVP and didn't lead the league in WAR, he was the best hitter. The time he lost the MVP and lead in WAR, he played for a last place team.

Seeing as how Trout's team finished with a better record than Cabrera's, you're not even comparing apples to oranges.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

How is that silly? If those people were on base, perhaps Trout chokes where Cabrera didn't. Cabrera knocked them in.

Trout had a very, very good year, where Cabrera had a season for the ages.

I think Miggy should get the MVP because of winning the triple crown, but this was not what I describe as a season for the ages.

[stevew]

What site has the correct WAR? BR shows bonds leading 11 times?

[Subby]

BBR and Fangraphs calculate WAR differently.

[gstelmack]

I do enjoy how people keep saying "what about defense?" and the continued debate completely ignores that question. So is AL MVP all about hitting exclusively?

Another question: would Cabrera's numbers have won him the triple-crown in other seasons? We say "season for the ages", but one way to win a triple-crown is for other hitters to simply have bad years or be off a bit. We're not talking about .400 where it's a hard line, we're talking about a comparison vs the other hitters, including a stat that is based heavily on the rest of your lineup.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I do enjoy how people keep saying "what about defense?" and the continued debate completely ignores that question. So is AL MVP all about hitting exclusively?

If one guy wins a triple crown, yeah, pretty much.

Another question: would Cabrera's numbers have won him the triple-crown in other seasons?

Going back to 2002 (which was very easy to do with espn.com's stat page), it would have been an AL triple crown season in 2008 as well (I didn't check vs NL leaders). The same production would have won 3 batting titles, 6 HR titles and 6 RBI titles over that same span (counting 2012)

His 2012 numbers would have led:
3 categories 2x (2012, 2008)
2 categories 2x (2011,2009)
1 category 5x (2010,2006,2005, 2004, 2003)
0 categories 2x (2007, 2002)

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by stevew

What site has the correct WAR? BR shows bonds leading 11 times?

I went by BR. He led the league in WAR in 1990, 1996, and 2001-2004

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Atocep

A single and stolen base with 2 outs increases the runs your team is expected to score in an inning by about .236 runs.

If you have a runner on 3rd and no one out a sac fly actually lowers the number of runs expected for that inning. With a runner on 3rd and 1 out that sac fly increases the number of runs expected by .11.

Over the course of 162 games, not making outs is always going to carry more value than making outs.

Awarding the MVP isn't about probabilities, it's about what actually happened. Trout got a ton of his hits with no one on base - that's OK. As people have said, he didn't have as many people on base as Cabrera did. However, when it comes to the MVP, having people on base and knocking them in directly impacts the number of runs scored. Carbrera and Trout scored roughly the same number of runs while Cabrera knocked in about 70% more runs. Now, is there some luck/bad probability plays that helped Cabrera get more RBI? Sure, but there is no need for "probability" as we have the actual data for the year and Cabrera had more hits/plays that directly resulted in runs being scored than Trout.

Another question: would Cabrera's numbers have won him the triple-crown in other seasons? We say "season for the ages", but one way to win a triple-crown is for other hitters to simply have bad years or be off a bit. We're not talking about .400 where it's a hard line, we're talking about a comparison vs the other hitters, including a stat that is based heavily on the rest of your lineup.

The only way to compare someone's performance is based upon how they did against their peers. Whatever the reason, pitching was much better this year than in other seasons. So, while Cabrera's numbers don't win when compared to 2009-2011, they do look very good when compared to other hitters in 2012.

[Subby]

The problem with the Triple Crown is that it is saying runs batted in and batting average are two of the most important statistics for a hitter. Batting average is debatable, particularly now that we better understand the importance of on base percentage, fielding independent pitching, and park effects.

Runs batted in is even more questionable. A guy who hits in the middle of the order and has a bunch of guys good at getting on base in front of him is going to have to try hard NOT to drive in 100 runs in a year. This doesn't mean he is necessarily great at driving in runs. It just means he has a lot of opportunities.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Subby

A guy who hits in the middle of the order and has a bunch of guys good at getting on base in front of him is going to have to try hard NOT to drive in 100 runs in a year. This doesn't mean he is necessarily great at driving in runs. It just means he has a lot of opportunities.

Eh, seems like at least a little excessive hyperbole there.

Only 9 players drove in 100 runs in the AL this year.

Of those, 2 came from teams (TOR, KC) that were in the bottom half of .OBP. And 2 teams (CLE,CHI) in the top half of .OBP had no one with 100 RBI.

It makes it easier for sure, but prolly doesn't reach the "have to try hard not to" threshold IMO.

[Scoobz0202]

How valuable is defense and base running when gauging an individual player?

[JPhillips]

In another era one might question how Edwin Encarnacion suddenly doubled his home run numbers

[ISiddiqui]

Have we also factored in that a hitter batting 3rd in the lineup is going to have MUCH more oppertunities for RBIs than a hitter batting leadoff?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Eh, seems like at least a little excessive hyperbole there.

Only 9 players drove in 100 runs in the AL this year.

Of those, 2 came from teams (TOR, KC) that were in the bottom half of .OBP. And 2 teams (CLE,CHI) in the top half of .OBP had no one with 100 RBI.

It makes it easier for sure, but prolly doesn't reach the "have to try hard not to" threshold IMO.

Billy Butler for MVP!

Oh well, I tried

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

In another era one might question how Edwin Encarnacion suddenly doubled his home run numbers

Heh.

I actually wondered how fair any comparison of this year's stats were to any other recent year, decided to post the info I found anyway & just let everybody figure out how to weight them on their own.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Have we also factored in that a hitter batting 3rd in the lineup is going to have MUCH more oppertunities for RBIs than a hitter batting leadoff?

Or maybe not.

Of the 9 AL players who drove in 100 or more

3 got their most AB's hitting 3rd
5 got their most AB's hitting 4th
1 got their most AB's hitting 2nd

That doesn't speak directly to opportunities but it does point toward productivity of spots other than 3rd.

edit to add: I stand corrected, I misread your statement as "being 3rd over all others" rather than "3rd over leadoff".

[lungs]

Hmmm, checked the NL numbers over now that the season is over.

No complaints from me when Posey wins it, despite my Ryan Braun colored glasses that I wear.

NL I'd go:
1. Posey
2. Braun
3. McCutchen
4. David Wright
5. Yadier Molina

AL, I'm totally going for Trout because his wOBA is better.

1. Trout
2. Cabrera
3. Cano
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Yuniesky Betancourt

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Another question: would Cabrera's numbers have won him the triple-crown in other seasons? We say "season for the ages", but one way to win a triple-crown is for other hitters to simply have bad years or be off a bit. We're not talking about .400 where it's a hard line, we're talking about a comparison vs the other hitters, including a stat that is based heavily on the rest of your lineup.

I do think a Triple Crown is a historical achievement and I think "season for the ages" might be overstating it. However, I know you know better than "other hitters to simply have bad years or be off a bit". C'mon, you're going to ride the "RBIs are team dependent" train but ignore that hitting can be year or era dependent? Runs in the AL the last 3 years have stabilized to around 4.45 per game vs bouncing around between ~4.75 and ~5.0 since 2000 so RBIs were down. Batting average was .255 this year vs ~.265-.270. Home runs were 1.10, a big jump from the 1.0 and 0.97 the last 2 years but that is on par, not freakishly above those previous years and below the 1.15ish average of the years before that.

American League Batting Encyclopedia - Baseball-Reference.com (I'm using 2000-2009 and then 2010-2012 as there seems to be a very distinct line between 2009 and 2010).

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the assertion that Trout deserves the MVP (tho I have debated in this thread what it actually means and I think "highest WAR on a playoff team" shorthand sells it short a bit). But arguments like this and a couple of others just erode the quality of the arguments /for/ Trout by association.

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by lungs

Hmmm, checked the NL numbers over now that the season is over.

No complaints from me when Posey wins it, despite my Ryan Braun colored glasses that I wear.

NL I'd go:
1. Posey
2. Braun
3. McCutchen
4. David Wright
5. Yadier Molina

AL, I'm totally going for Trout because his wOBA is better.

1. Trout
2. Cabrera
3. Cano
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Yuniesky Betancourt

You're a mean, spiteful old farmer.

Didn't we already trade him to you once just to get him off the team?

SI

[lungs]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

You're a mean, spiteful old farmer.

Didn't we already trade him to you once just to get him off the team?

SI

I'll admit, when the Brewers were trotting Cesar Izturis and Cody Ransom out there every day, I was longing for the days of Yuni B...... seriously

[Logan]

Wright really shit the bed in the second half. He doesn't deserve to be on an MVP ballot.

By the way, the most exciting Mets-related news for me is that I nailed my preseason prediction of 74 wins on the nose. Free dinner for me courtesy of some buddies.

[Young Drachma]

It's a Triple Crown.