01-22-2023, 03:49 PM | #1851 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
And with CNY, let’s further test out the hypothesis that Nobody is our good luck rabbits foot.
Tradition says don’t wash or cut your hair today as that will be washing, throwing away your fortune. Good thing it’s Sun and don’t have to impress anyone. |
01-22-2023, 05:31 PM | #1852 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
We are just a big dip from Edward sacrificing virgins.
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk |
01-22-2023, 05:42 PM | #1853 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Sure, you go ahead and laugh while you and the rabid fan base go thru your Sat rituals before a game
|
01-22-2023, 06:33 PM | #1854 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
|
Like we could find any virgins around here....
|
01-23-2023, 01:44 PM | #1855 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
|
Quote:
I took a shower yesterday morning.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
|
01-23-2023, 05:44 PM | #1856 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
|
01-26-2023, 10:22 AM | #1857 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
|
TSLA up ~10% today.
A lot of its decline was precipitated by Musk's antics. But I think that it was also deflating a bubble that never should have blown up that much in the first place. It might simply be a lot of noise that got it to fairly valued now. I do think that the long term outlook for it as an independent company isn't great as the 900-pound gorilla legacy carmakers get into the EV world. But it probably ends up being merging with/being taken over by one of the legacy carmakers, so there will still be value for TSLA shareholders. |
01-26-2023, 04:53 PM | #1858 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
|
Quote:
Will the SP500 rise by more than 62.18 points tomorrow? We'll find out!
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
|
01-27-2023, 03:24 PM | #1859 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
It doesn’t look like it. But a damn fine week regardless.
Hang tight Jerome. You kill this inflation dragon even if we go into recession. And Google didn’t need all of those massage therapists anyway Quote:
|
|
01-28-2023, 09:35 PM | #1860 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Bets are that Jerome will go with .25% hike next week but still warn clearly that rate hikes aren’t done. Still a good sign
|
01-28-2023, 09:42 PM | #1861 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
|
I will repeat my wager, if the week goes up SP500 150+ points then I will eat a can of collard greens
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
01-29-2023, 12:00 AM | #1862 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
150 com’on man (aka Joe). How about 100?
|
01-31-2023, 06:39 PM | #1863 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Sweet, sweet day.
Sweet, sweet month. Frak you 2022. |
02-01-2023, 07:05 PM | #1864 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Another sweet, sweet day.
Wow on FB below, but still a long ways to go to recover from 2022. Hope it holds for a great day tomorrow. Quote:
|
|
02-01-2023, 07:15 PM | #1865 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Nice. Think we are over the hump on inflation and it’ll only get better. Some are predicting only one more .25 hike but hope the governors strongly temper that over the next several weeks & manage expectations.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-...oint-hike.html Quote:
Quote:
|
||
02-02-2023, 01:23 PM | #1866 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Nasdaq being (pre 2021) Nasdaq. Missed you old friend.
Looks like the can of collard greens is a possibility. |
02-02-2023, 05:23 PM | #1867 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
|
Quote:
SP500 needs to go up by 54.24 for it to happen.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
|
02-02-2023, 06:54 PM | #1868 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Apple, Amazon and Google all tumbling after hours because of their poor results. My guess is markets will be bad Fri so prob safe.
|
02-07-2023, 05:20 PM | #1869 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Crazy but nice day.
I can’t help but feel the markets are too optimistic in Jerome stopping/reducing rates. I think the .25 will continue for 3+ months on account the job market is so strong. But enjoying it while it lasts |
02-13-2023, 10:43 AM | #1870 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
And Google continues to underperform the markets.
We’ll probably never know but wonder who’s taking the hit for the Bard demo foopah. I actually don’t think that mistake was a big deal. But they should have prepped everyone by saying ‘beta, we’ll be fine tuning it over next x months. Let me repeat its beta. And one more time, it’s beta’ |
02-14-2023, 08:50 AM | #1871 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Inflation still with us as slightly higher than predicted.
Maybe Jerome should continue with .5 instead of .25 hikes for the next couple (can’t go back to .75). That’ll probably hurt markets but let’s get some convincing CPI decreases before letting go of the brakes. Quote:
|
|
02-14-2023, 05:32 PM | #1872 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
FWIW my Zillow price has remained steady past 4-6 weeks. There was a time when it was dropping a couple times a month.
Still way ahead of pre-pandemic so not gonna complain but hope this is the bottom. |
02-16-2023, 03:26 PM | #1873 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Sep 2005
|
I have some capital to allocate in to the market and am really struggling to know which direction to turn. The UK FTSE is at an all time high, with banks and energy companies booming. Don't want to buy an ATH. Already over allocated in American tech with Tesla my main position. A lot of uncertainty in Europe, single digit allocation in that direction. All of my crypto allocation was made at the end of Dec 2022.
Any sectors in particular worth researching? I hear a few experts saying India is up and coming. Anyone have an allocation in Indian companies or funds? I have like 0.3% of my portfolio in an Indian fund and it has boomed over the past 12 months, up 40%. Just a general punt to grab some exposure, no real thought behind it. |
02-16-2023, 08:46 PM | #1874 |
lolzcat
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Annapolis, Md
|
I have been in and out of Dr. Reddy's over recent years as an American-accessible ADR for pharma based in India. I have benefited from some (likely lucky) timing, but I think there's enough there to be worth a look.
In an emerging market, I rather like to play on fundamentals rather than the absolute bleeding edge. |
02-17-2023, 04:03 AM | #1875 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
More less than good inflation news. I don’t know if Jerome will so .25 or .5 (supposedly more likely now) but I’d vote for the .5.
Frakking weird elements in the economy right now. On the other hand, used cars have dropped quite a bit in latest CPI (but eggs are still up there) but not sure if back to normal. |
02-17-2023, 04:12 AM | #1876 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
I think I read the FTSE is doing well because inflation there does seem to be coming down (multiple months now) whereas in the US, it’s still being stubborn.
I hope the same pattern follows here when we see consistent monthly declines. |
02-17-2023, 07:12 AM | #1877 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
I’m pretty sure I would not want to be a guarantor to my parents mortgage (and inherit) unless I’m sure the value will appreciate more than equity markets or it’s basically paid for.
But don’t think that’s what the below banks are thinking with these multi-generational loans. Don’t do it Chinese Millennials and Gen Z. China's property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business Quote:
|
|
02-17-2023, 09:10 AM | #1878 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
|
Probably says more about the immaturity of the Chinese banking and legal systems, than anything. If I die with a mortgage, it's considered part of my estate, and whomever inherits it needs to deal with it (normally super easy in the sense that the kids would sell the house which would pay off the mortgage and give them a windfall of some sort). If I die without beneficiaries of my will, then the whole thing just goes through probate and the bank likely gets paid (because the house gets sold).
It's stuff like this that has me question the overheated think pieces about how China is going to replace the U.S. as the center of the financial world anytime soon. |
02-17-2023, 02:06 PM | #1879 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Sep 2005
|
Thanks Quik, makes sense. No way round it, I need to do a bit of research I think.
The UK FTSE is made up largely of energy companies, banks and pharma. The ATH isn't a reflection of the state of our economy. Those Brexit trade deals never came through. Things are not dire, but not great either. A weak pound helps prop the valuations up. But I think those 3 sectors are strong, particularly energy. The likes of Shell and BP are making billions per quarter. Meanwhile the general public are paying around $400 a month on energy. Whilst the government have hit the companies with windfall taxes, they have been relatively light. They want us to become self sufficient, so the "we need the profits to reinvest" helps them stay rich. I believe Norway is our main source of gas. With it in short supply the price goes up. As do the energy companies valuations, the FTSE, and the general publics energy bills. As for China, no doubt the elites have their hands in many pies across the world. They have done well. It does come across that America is particularly threatened by China, consistently drawing their attention. But the Chinese demographics are real shaky. That 1 child policy is biting them in the ass. A severely aging population, that will have to be carried by a relatively small number of working people. That said, I have no idea about the Chinese social security system, but I suspect they wouldn't be overly generous? There used to be a narrative here that China was going to become the no.1 in the world within a few decades. But I hear a lot more about India climbing the rankings now. China's growth seems to be slowing on face value, although they are clearly the no.2 economic force. |
02-17-2023, 02:51 PM | #1880 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
|
World #1 in manufacturing or output or gdp sure, fine.
But there's always this thing about how China or Dubai or India or whatever is going to be the center of the financial universe. Well, they'd have to replace what made the U.S. the center of the financial universe:
It's going to be the U.S. for a really long while. The only thing that could kill it is a few more Trump or Trump-like administrations that dismantle pretty much everything listed above. |
02-17-2023, 06:20 PM | #1881 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
|
02-17-2023, 06:50 PM | #1882 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
I had fat back tonight. You're welcome.
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk |
02-17-2023, 06:57 PM | #1883 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Collard greens is the key, not bacon
|
02-17-2023, 06:58 PM | #1884 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
Fat back. It is magic.
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk |
02-23-2023, 05:31 PM | #1885 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Yup, 23% sounds about right.
But I measure the drop from the high of the year and not from Jan 1. That was sometime in Feb I believe so I do feel that I ‘lost’ more. Quote:
|
|
02-24-2023, 10:46 AM | #1886 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Just frakking great. Will everyone just stop buying their "wants" (vs needs) for 6 months or so?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/stoc...e-updates.html Quote:
Last edited by Edward64 : 02-24-2023 at 10:47 AM. |
|
02-24-2023, 12:54 PM | #1887 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
|
Are you planning to retire soon, Edward? Serious question - I have it in the back of my mind that you weren't far away, for some reason.
|
02-24-2023, 01:17 PM | #1888 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Yes, I believe it came up on a retirement thread a couple years ago. I retired this Jan.
Not the best time market wise to retire but there’s always that ‘one more year’ argument. Major expenses taken care of and wife and I are pretty sure we can live within the 4% rule of thumb. But sure hope market recovers well this year. |
02-24-2023, 01:33 PM | #1889 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
|
Ah yes, I remember. I had a co-worker who retired last year in April. Said much the same vis-a-vis timing, but is still glad he did it (mid-60s, in his case).
|
02-24-2023, 02:36 PM | #1890 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
|
We have a guy working with us that retired last year at 52.He only works part time. He says it is more just to get out of the house than for the money. Meanwhile, I plan to retire two years after I die.
|
03-02-2023, 05:12 PM | #1891 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
One of the better days over the past 3-4 weeks now. Started off in the red but then had an upturn.
Supposedly because of this guy Quote:
I really hope this is a coordinated effort and Bostic isn't out of line with Jerome. I'm pessimistic and think Jerome was premature from .75 --> .25. Should prob have been .5. It really doesn't seem inflation is comfortably in a downward trajectory. |
|
03-04-2023, 12:17 AM | #1892 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Sweet, sweet day.
Think I'm going to buy canned collard greens this weekend. |
03-06-2023, 11:21 AM | #1893 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Quote:
You see, eating collard greens works! Jerome to present on Tue & Wed. Jobs report on Fri. My guess is this rally is premature and will fade as Jerome reinforces he will be the adult in the room (re: raising rates to fight inflation), and Jobs report does not show significant decrease. But happy to be wrong. |
|
03-08-2023, 09:42 AM | #1894 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Arrghhhh!
Put the hammer down Jerome! You didn't do enough before you let off the brakes to .25. You missed it again (!) you idiot. Time to go back to .75 or .5. Persistent inflation > recession, go ahead and cause the damn recession. Forget the finessing a soft landing BS. Quote:
Well, okay. Now that I've calmed down, lets see what the Fri Jobs reports say. I'm guessing more of the same though. |
|
03-08-2023, 10:25 AM | #1895 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Back in Houston!
|
How awful - workers getting some more bargaining power so that wages may actually increase instead of corporate profits. We'd better stamp that out pronto because the upper middle class might have to pay a little more
SI
__________________
Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" |
03-10-2023, 06:54 AM | #1896 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Okay Fri Jobs reports, show a downwards trend.
Thu market started off decent in the black and then sometime noon'ish it started headed south. I thought it was because of Biden's plan but it was because of SVB fears. Fri futures are flat ... waiting on the jobs report. |
03-11-2023, 08:43 PM | #1897 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Quote:
Hey, my Zillow price went up! Hoping my post from a month ago was the low. |
|
03-13-2023, 08:27 AM | #1898 | ||
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
Interesting if true. A pause in rate hikes to address the "recent stress" (and then resume hikes later).
Probably a lot of bad stuff to happen (e.g. layoffs) as a result of market concerns and to address the $600B+ of unrealized losses banks have on their books. This may/will temper inflation some by itself. I don't disagree. I think immediate concerns > inflation concerns > recession. Quote:
Quote:
|
||
03-13-2023, 08:34 AM | #1899 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2013
|
Biden is giving a speech at 9am, let's see if he calms the markets down.
__________________
"I am God's prophet, and I need an attorney" |
03-13-2023, 01:19 PM | #1900 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2005
|
The markets have been up & down & mixed (and now back to up). Looks like there is still a lot of angst but not panic (so far).
With the SVB and Signature bank closures, I was wondering what is the % of uninsured deposits by bank and found an article written today. US Banks Have Over $1 Trillion of Uninsured Deposits. Signature Ranks High. SVB (90%) and Signature (88%) were #1 & #2. First Republic (68%) is #4. #3 is Citigroup (85%) which was unexpected. I assume majority of those are business accounts that exceed the $250K. The lowest on the list were 33% for BoA and Goldman Sachs. We do all our regular banking with Wells Fargo (-6.2% right now) and their annual report shows $590B out of $1.5T so lower end of the scale. So if I read the WF report correctly, the actual total amount of uninsured deposits far, far exceeds the article's title of "have over 1T uninsured deposits". I'm pretty sure this info is available in every bank's financial statement but maybe have a "grade" (like for restaurants) that clearly tells KPI metrics for banks. Make it a requirement to post on bank doors and on websites. But yay, Apple is up 1.84%. Last edited by Edward64 : 03-13-2023 at 01:26 PM. |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|